BE-AWARE I HNS Risk Assessment

Bonn Agreement: Area-wide Assessment of Risk

EvaluationsCo-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

Qualitative analysis of the likelihood of HNS spills

DATA Collection

• Accident models

Data Collection and Analysis

• Rotterdam (Bulk)• Antwerp (Bulk & Packed goods)

Categorisation of HNS

• No one overall system

• IMDG Code• GESAMP• ARCOPOL

Methodology

• Top 100 most transported goods (bulk and packed)

• Each dataset divided into IMDG, GESAMP and ACROPOL

• SAMSON accident database used to estimate accidents of HNS shipments or vessels per cell

HeaderHeaderRotterdam Bulk Goods: IMDG

HeaderHeaderAntwerp Bulk and Packaged Goods: IMDG

HeaderHeaderBulk HNS by IMDG Code

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

2.1 2.3 3 4.2 5.1 6.1 8 9

Cont

ributi

on [%

]

IMDG class

HNS handled in bulk

Antwerp

Rotterdam

HeaderHeaderAntwerp Bulk and Packaged goods by IMDG

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2.1 2.3 3 4.1 4.2 5.1 6.1 8 9

Cont

ributi

on

IMDG class

Comparison packed and bulk

Packed

Bulk

HeaderHeaderTop 100 Substances transported Totals for both ports

• ARCPOL substances are evenly spread between packaged and bulk shipments

• GESAMP substances are mostly found in packaged goods

HeaderHeaderVessels carrying bulk and packed goods: Antwerp

HeaderHeaderQualitative Analysis

HeaderHeaderRisk analyses for bulk goods

• 1 collision a year with vessel carrying IMDG 1-9, approx. 2200 tonnes of HNS involved

• 1 collision in 3 years with Class I or II tanker with approx. 3000 tonnes of involved

• 1 collision in 10 Years with vessel carrying ACROPOL Top 20 substance with 90 tonnes involved

HeaderHeaderRisk Analysis for packed goods

• 0.8 collisions per year that involve a vessel with HNS on board as packed goods

• The total amount of HNS involved in a collision is 843 tonnes per year, which would include 4 different HNS shipments.

Geographical Distribution: Bulk IMDG 1-9

Packed goods IMDG 1-9 Antwerp

Packed Goods: ARCOPOL Top 20

• Improvement of databases to hold HNS shipment data including standard names and UN no.

• Development of a categorisation system covering all substances

• Development of a model that can analyse the amount of HNS spilled for accidents involving product tankers with many different cargoes

• Development of a model of the effect of a collision on containers in different parts of a vessel and the likelihood containers would be lost following a collision

• Develop more detailed model of the fate and behaviour of HNS spilt in accidents.

Future work on HNS analysis

• improve the understanding of the behaviour of HNS spilt at sea;• conduct lab experiments to further document the physico-

chemical properties of commonly transported HNS • produce environmental and socioeconomic sensitivity maps

dedicated to HNS;• develop a 3D mathematical model that can forecast the drift,

fate and behaviour of HNS spilt at sea.• Develop web-based decision-support tool

Questions?

Thank you

beaware.bonnagreement.org