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Advanced Forecasting & Procurement
forMicrosoft Dynamics NAV
Presented toABC Annual Conference 2011
May 12, 2011
Return On Investment Forecasting Concepts Replenishment Concepts Putting It All Together Software Demonstration
Agenda
The Squeeze Play
Domestic Vendors– Vendor Pricing Models
• Carry More Inventory to Earn Reduced Price Point
International Vendors– Long Lead Times– Container Level Purchasing
• Drive Up Inventory
Economy– Line of Credit– Reduced Sales– Customers are Carrying Less Inventory
Return On Investment
Reduce Inventory– $10M Inventory * 20% Reduction = $2M – $2M Inventory Reduction * 15% Carrying Cost = $300K– Reduce Demand on Line of Credit by $2M
Reduce Stock Outs/Lost Sales– Increase Sales– Increase Customer Service
Manage Stocking Levels
Typical Pain Points
Forecast Accuracy Customer Collaboration (Large Customers) Promotions Items You Can‘t Forecast
– Stock?– Stocking Level?
New Items Kit or Production Items
– Component Demand Managing Long Lead Times Safety Stock Values Branch Replenishment
Forecasting & Replenishment
Forecasting
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical Usage
Forecasting
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical Usage
ADJ
Forecasting
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Forecasting
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Forecasting
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Forecasting
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Forecasting
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Forecasting
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJTOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJ
SuggestedOrder
Expected Inventory
TOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJ
SuggestedOrder
Expected Inventory
Lead Time
VendorTargets
TOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJ
SuggestedOrder
Expected Inventory
Lead Time
VendorTargets
TOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Surplus Inventory
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJ
SuggestedOrder
TransferOrder
Expected Inventory
Lead Time
VendorTargets
TOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Surplus Inventory
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJ
SuggestedOrder
PurchaseOrder
TransferOrder
Expected Inventory
Lead Time
VendorTargets
TOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Surplus Inventory
Forecasting Concepts Applied
Filtered Usage Formula Based Forecasting (Best Fit Formula) Customer Collaborative Forecasting Combined Forecast
Filtered Usage (Recurring Usage)
Sales to Customers or Consumption (Not Both) Excluded from Usage (Marked on Sales Order) Transfers to Warehouses (In Replenishment Path) Adjustments
– Automated Smoothing– Manual
Drop Shipment Usage (Optional via Setup)
Best Fit Formula
Last Closed Period
LCP – 1
LCP – 2
LCP – 3
LCP – 4
LCP – 5
LCP – 6
LCP – 7
LCP – 8
LCP – 9
LCP – 10
MedianError %
MedianError %
• Reforecast x Periods• Establish Error %• Establish Median Error
%• Choose Formula With Lowest Median Error %
Choose Best Formula
Formula A Formula B
Forecast Adjust
Single SKU Groups of SKUs Promotions Forecast Summary
Promotions
Define Promotion– Items– Start and End Dates– Sales Quantity Projected for Promotion
After Promotion– Use Promotion Adjust
• Remove Results of Promotion From History
Forecast Summary
Roll Up Forecast at User Defined Levels View Forecast
– Cost– Price– Quantity
Make Change at Any Level Distribute Changes to Lower Levels
Collaborative Forecasting
HistoricalUsage
Statistical ForecastAdjustmentsPromotions
TOTAL
FORECAST
Collaborative Forecasting
HistoricalUsage
Customer 123
Statistical ForecastAdjustmentsPromotions
TOTAL
FORECAST
Collaborative Forecasting
FORECAST
Formulas
HistoricalUsage
Customer 123
Statistical ForecastAdjustmentsPromotions
TOTAL
FORECAST
Collaborative Forecasting
FORECAST
Formulas
HistoricalUsage
Customer 123Collaborative
Forecast
Statistical ForecastAdjustmentsPromotions
TOTAL
FORECAST
Collaborative Forecasting
FORECAST
Formulas
HistoricalUsage
Customer 123Collaborative
Forecast
Excel
Customer 123Sales
Representative
Statistical ForecastAdjustmentsPromotions
TOTAL
FORECAST
Collaborative Forecasting
FORECAST
Formulas
HistoricalUsage
Customer 123CustomerForecast
CollaborativeForecast
Excel
Customer 123Sales
Representative
Statistical ForecastAdjustmentsPromotions
TOTAL
FORECAST
Distribution Requirements Planning (DRP)
DRP Looks at the Entire Company and Optimizes Inventory Across All Warehouses– Rolls Historical Usage Up Based on Replenishment Path– Forecast At Each Warehouse/Item– Compares Time Phased Inventory to Rolled Up Forecast
• Manages – Vendor Replenishment– Hub and Spoke
» Branch Replenishment– Inventory Balancing
Replenishment Path – Hub and Spoke
WH 2
WH 4 WH 6
WH 9
WH 7 WH 8
WH 1 WH 3
WH 5
Vendor 1 Vendor 2
Vendor Replenishment – Based on Lead Time Horizon
Warehouse Replenishment – Based on Days Supply
Example:WH 1, WH2 = Lead Time Horizon 90 DaysWH 3 = Lead Time Horizon 30 DaysWH 4, WH 5, WH6 = Min Days 14 Max Days 21WH 9 – Min Days 10 Max Days 14WH 7, WH 8 – Min Days 10 Max Days 14
Inventory Balancing – Hub and Spoke
WH 2
WH 4 WH 6
WH 9
WH 8
WH 1 WH 3
WH 5
Vendor 1 Vendor 2
Example:WH 1 has Need of 250WH 2 has Surplus of 100WH 3 has Surplus of 100WH 7 has Surplus of 75
WH 7
Transfer 100 Transfer 100
Transfer 50
Simulated Production Orders
Incr.Days
Jan 1 Jan 8 Jan 15
Jan22
Jan29
Feb5
Feb 12
Feb 19
Exp. Inv. 100 45 -10 -55 -110 -155 -210 -245Need 0 0 10 45 55 45 55 35Prod.Order
55 100 90
• Time Phased Expected Inventory for Each Increment• Calculate Need for Each Increment• Consolidate Need to Create Simulated Production
Orders
Replenishment Tools
Vendor Lead Time Calculation Net Time Phased Expected Inventory Vendor Buying Calendar
– Vendor Review Suggested Order
– Purchasing Decision Warehouse Transfer
– Surplus Inventory Purchase Order
– Release Purchase Request Posted Suggested Order
– Save Criteria from Purchasing Decision Branch Replenishment
Vendor Lead Time
Vendor Lead Time by Item, Vendor, and Warehouse User Defined Average Lead Time Calculation
– Use Receipts from X Periods– Use X Receipts– Exclude Receipts
• Greater than X Percent of Average• Less than X Percent of Average• Receipts that are Marked for Exclusion from Purchase Order
Frozen Lead Time– User Specified Frozen Lead Time by Item– Expire Date to Revert Back to Average Lead Time
Net Time Phased Expected Inventory
Additions to Inventory
Inventory On HandQuantity on Purchase OrdersQuantity on Transfers InQuantity on Customer ReturnsQuantity on Planned Production Orders (Finished Goods)
Subtractions from inventoryQuantity on Sales OrderQuantity on Transfers OutQuantity on Vendor ReturnsQuantity on Service OrdersQuantity on Component Lines
Replenishment
Decision 1– Should I Replenish?
Decision 2– How Much to Replenish?
Decision 3– Do I have Surplus Inventory?
Decision 4– Are there Vendor Targets?
Replenishment
Decision 1– Should I Replenish?
• Min/Max (Fixed)• Min/Max Days Supply (Dynamic)• Target Stock Level (Dynamic)• Lead Time Horizon (Lead Time + Review Cycle + Safety
Stock Days) (Dynamic)• Dynamic Order Point
– Order Point (Dynamic)» (Ave. Daily Usage * Lead Time Days) + Safety Stock
– Line Point (Dynamic)» Order Point + (Average Daily Usage * Review Cycle Days)
Replenishment
Decision 2 (Used with Order Point & Line Point)– How Much to Replenish?
• Economic Order Quantity• Modified Economic Order Quantity
– Increase EOQ to Cover Forecast Usage
24 * COST OF ORDERING (R) * AVERAGE USAGE COST OF CARRYING INVENTORY (K) * UNIT COST
Replenishment
Decision 3– Do I have Surplus Inventory?
• Decision to Buy from Vendor or Transfer Surplus Inventory
Replenishment
Decision 4– Are there Vendor Targets at the Order Level?
• Amount• Net Weight• Gross Weight• Volume
Result - The Suggested Order
Recommended Replenishment Quantities Drill Down to all Information from Suggested Order Line
– Detailed Forecast– Historical Usage Patterns– Formulas and Data that caused Recommended Replenishment– Surplus Inventory and Where– Time Phased Expected Inventory– Order Statistics
• Comparison to Vendor Targets
Branch Replenishment
Clearly Defined Replenishment Path– When I Need Inventory Where Do I Get It?
Top Level Buy is for Lead Time + Safety Stock Branch Replenishment is Based on Replenishment Cycle to
Branch– Set Branch to Maintain X Day’s Supply
Benefits – Reduction of Safety Stock in Supply Chain– Inventory is Distributed to Where it is Needed
Forecasting & Replenishment
Historical UsageFORECAST
Formulas
CollaborativeForecast
ADJ
SuggestedOrder
PurchaseOrder
TransferOrder
Expected Inventory
Lead Time
VendorTargets
TOTAL
FORECAST
Production&
Kits
Forecasting52 Period Forecast
52 Period Forecast
Replenishment
Sales Promotions
Forecast Summary
Adjustment atSKU level
Surplus Inventory
Summary
Clean Historical Usage Best Fit Formula Selection Collaborative Forecast for Large Customers Flexible Forecast Adjustment Promotions
– Look Ahead to Purchase for Promotion– Keep History Without Promotion Influence
Good Replenishment Tools– Time Phased Expected Inventory– Good Vendor Lead Time Management– Dynamic Replenishment Calculations– Surplus and Excess Inventory Calculations– Consider Transfer Instead of Buying