Aerospace America

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Mars Science Laboratory: Going for a touchdownA conversation with Norman R. AugustineA P U B L I C A T I O N O F T H E A M E R I C A N I N S T I T U T E O F A E R O N A U T I C S A N D A S T R O N A U T I C SJuly-August 2012TheDragonroarsThis Spring, AIAA Invites You to Discover an All-New Electronic Database Featuring Over Four Decades of Aerospace ResearchWith AIAAs Aerospace Research Central you will be able to:r Save and schedule searchesr Highlight books, conference proceedings, and journal articlesr Download citations and bundle content based on topic disciplinesr Sign up for alerts on subjects of interestr Access e-frst publications ahead of printr Post links to research articles and selected book titles on social networking websitesARC will also enable you to discover articles, books, conference proceedings, and other published materials based on your interests, greatly enhancing the fow of information and ideas in the collaborative research process.For More Information Contact: ARC@aiaa.orgComing Soon!Stay Tuned to www.aiaa.org for the Launch of ARCBOOKS t JOURNALS t eBOOKS t CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS t STANDARDSpowered by12-0158FEATURESDEPARTMENTSAerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly, except August, by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344[703/264-7500]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright 2012 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S.Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 50, No. 7.July-August 2012AIAA Meeting Schedule B2AIAA Courses and Training Program B4AIAA News B5Meetings Programs B14Call for Papers B24BULLETINMARS SCIENCE LABORATORY: GOING FOR A TOUCHDOWN 30Much is at stake as NASA awaits the August 5 landing of its Mars ScienceLaboratory and the large Curiosity rover it carries.by Leonard DavidUNCOVERING THE SECRETS OF MYSTERY ICE 36A growing number of aircraft mishaps appear to be caused by ice crystalsof mysterious origins.by J.R. WilsonRUSSIAN SPACE PROGRAM RECOVERS 42After a string of major failures and investigations, Russias troubled spaceprogram is beginning to regain its footing.by James ObergEDITORIAL 3The year of the Dragon.INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4Eurozone crisis hits aircraft sales.WASHINGTON WATCH 8Moving ahead despite constraints.CONVERSATIONS 12With Norman R. Augustine.THE VIEW FROM HERE 16The Dragons roar.AIRCRAFT UPDATE 20F-35 faces cost-sensitive export market.INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 26Acquisitions reshape aerospace and defense industry.OUT OF THE PAST 50CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 54COVERFlight engineers Don Pettit and Andre Kuipers grappled the SpaceX Dragon with the Canadarm2 and used itto berth Dragon to the ISS. Find out about Dragons remarkable mission by turning to page 16. NASA photo.Page 4Page 20Page 36Page 26Page 30Page 42Diversity, Design, and Details Facing the Challenge of Synthesis and IntegrationThe Next Generation Air Transportation System will depend on the concepts and results of synthesis. From the design of diverse individual vehicles to the development and implementation of the air trafc control system, to the airspace system itself, the amalgamation of diverse knowledge, people, and ideas into a cohesive, optimized, and useful entity is critical. Aviation professionals, practicing engineers, researchers, and policymakers will explore ideas, share research, and create interactive opportunities on critical topics such as: k|tttcIt 0es|ga ca6 0es|gaMethodologies k6vcate6 Systems |ategtct|ea |aaevct|ve Ceatets ca6Technologies including Energy Optimized Systems and All-Electric Aircraft Cest |IIett|veaess ca6 c|eeEngineering of Aerospace Systems k|t Itcasettct|ea: k|tttcItOperations and Air Trafc Management Systems ketescte System k||tct|eas eI N00 Cem|ex System 0es|gaMethodologies 0et|s|ea Seett Ptetesses ca6Iee|s Iet Cem|ex Systems |ac|||ag Iet|ae|eg|es Iet Cem|exSystem 0es|ga1I-19 Setem|et 2012hyctt kegeaty |a6|cace||s |a6|cace||s, |a6|cac12-023012t| k|kk kv|ct|ea Iet|ae|egy, |ategtct|ea, ca60etct|eas (kI|0) CeaIeteatewww.c|cc.etgJct|e201211t| k|kkJ|SSN0 Ne|t|6|st|||actykac|ys|s ca6 0t|m|tct|ea CeaIeteatewww.c|cc.etgJmce2012Register Today!Houston, it looks like weve got us a Dragon by the tail.Those words, uttered by astronaut Don Pettitt aboard the space station,signaling that the Canadarm had successfully grappled the SpaceX cargocapsule, marked the first visit by a private company to the ISS. This cap-ture was followed by a flawless berthing and subsequent uploads anddownloads of cargo. When the visit was over, Dragon decoupled from thestation and returned to Earth, splashing into the Pacific.The celebrations that followed were not confined to Elon Musk and hisSpace Exploration Technologies Corporation. This was good news forNASA, as the agency now had an additionaland homegrownsource forresupply missions to the station. And yes, Dragon has portholes, as it ismeant one day to carry crew as well as cargo.The events also brought a sigh of relief to supporters of NASAs Com-mercial Orbital Transportation Services, or COTS, program to coordinate thedelivery of cargo to the ISS by private companies, as well as the relatedCCDev program for development of crew transportation services. Both ofthese efforts follow the retirement of the space shuttle, which has resultedin U.S. reliance on foreign entities for transport.Other commercial ventures are also kicking into high gear. During thesummer, Sierra Nevada will begin free flights of its Dream Chaser crewcarrier, based on the old NASA HL-20 design, including autonomous ap-proach and landing. Meant to be launched from a United Launch AllianceAtlas V, Dream Chaser is another beneficiary of the COTS program. OrbitalSciences has announced that in its COTS effort, a pressurized cargo modulewill fly a demonstration mission later this year, then begin cargo deliveriesto the station, using its Cygnus advanced maneuvering spacecraft,launched by the companys Antares rocket. Boeing is well on its way with the CST-100, a crew capsule it is devel-oping with Bigelow Aerospace under NASAs CCDev program. Also forlaunch on Atlas V, the capsule completed drop tests in June. Other com-panies are also making progress, both with and without NASA support. But for now, take a moment and reflect on SpaceXs remarkable accomplishment, carried out amidst the din of voices saying they couldnt,or shouldnt. Enjoy that moment; salute the hundreds of people who pulledtogether to pull this off.Done?Now that the hard part has been done, at least once, here comes another hard part. As noted, Dragon has portholes. So, too, do the CST-100and the Dream Chaser. But NASA will be a lot less willing to use newcomersto carry astronauts than it will to deliver foodstuffs.Human rating these vehicles, and the rockets to carry them, entails firstdefining what the criteria are, in terms of vehicles and rockets not built byNASA, then determining whether the competitors meet them.Having these exercises go on simultaneously with testing would go along way to getting the U.S. back to being a spacefaring nation, as willknowing that those who voyage so far will be able to safely find their way home. Elaine CamhiEditor-in-Chiefis a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and AstronauticsElaine J. CamhiEditor-in-ChiefPatricia JeffersonAssociate EditorGreg WilsonProduction EditorJerry Grey, Editor-at-LargeChristine Williams, Editor AIAA BulletinCorrespondentsRobert F. Dorr, WashingtonPhilip Butterworth-Hayes, EuropeMichael Westlake, Hong KongContributing WritersRichard Aboulafia, James W. Canan,Marco Cceres, Craig Covault, LeonardDavid, Philip Finnegan, Edward Goldstein, Tom Jones, James Oberg,David Rockwell, J.R. WilsonFitzgerald Art & Design Art Direction and DesignMichael Griffin, PresidentRobert S. Dickman, PublisherCraig Byl, Manufacturing and DistributionSTEERING COMMITTEECol. Neal Barlow, USAF Academy;Carol Cash, Carol Cash & Associates;Brian D. Dailey; Basil Hassan, Sandia;Robert E. Lindberg, National Institute ofAerospace; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute ofTechnology; Susan X. Ying; BoeingEDITORIAL BOARDNed Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, Eugene Covert, L.S. Skip Fletcher,Michael Francis, Cam Martin,Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell ADVERTISING Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674rsilverstein@AdSalesExperts.netRussell Brody 732.832.2977russell.brody@verizon.netRoss B. Garelick Bell Business ManagerSend materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA20191-4344. Changes of address should besent by e-mail at custserv@aiaa.org, or by faxat 703.264.7606.Send correspondence to elainec@aiaa.org.July-August 2012, Vol. 50, No. 7The year of the DragonEurozone crisis hits aircraft sales4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/JULY-AUGUST 2012decline forecast for 2012 as a whole. Aweak start to the year was forecast,and indeed within Europe flights arevery close to forecast, but the recoveryof traffic to and from North Africa isslightly slower than expected, leavingtraffic for the quarter slightly belowforecast overall.Airline woes impact ordersThere has already been a marked slow-down in orders for new aircraft by Eu-ropean operators this year. By mid-May Boeing had received orders foraircraft from just two European air-lines (Norwegian Air Shuttle and Rus-sias Transaero), while Airbus won asingle order, also from Norwegian Air.The low-cost carrier ordered 100 Air-bus A320neos and 100 Boeing 737Maxand 22 current-generation