Affordable Housing Delivery: Demographics and a Rationale for Action Affordable Housing Delivery: Demographics and a Rationale for Action Presented to

Affordable Housing Delivery: Affordable Housing Delivery: Demographics and a Demographics and a Rationale for ActionRationale for Action

Presented to the Housing Advisory Committee,City of San Juan Capistrano, California

Victoria Basolo, Ph.D., AICP Associate Professor Department of Planning, Policy, & Design University of California, Irvine

July 7, 2004

POPULATIONPOPULATION

Population by place, Orange County, 2000

Low (lighter)

High (darker)

U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Population, Percent Change 1990-2000Population, Percent Change 1990-2000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Orange LosAngeles

Riverside SanBernardino

San Diego CA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.

Population Density, 1990 & 2000Population Density, 1990 & 2000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Persons persquare mile


Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Orange Riverside San Diego

65 and over

45-64

25-44

18-24

Under 18

Orange Riverside San Diego 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000


Legal Legal ImmigrationImmigration, 1986-2002, 1986-2002

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

75,000

90,000

105,000

120,000

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Orange

Los Angeles

Riverside

San Bernardino

San Diego

Source: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Services and the California Department of Finance, 2003

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Orange

Riverside

San Diego

Population Projections, 2000-2020Population Projections, 2000-2020

Source: California Department of Finance, 2000

• Orange County grew by 18.1% from 1990 to 2000, faster than the State as a whole

• Over the next 20 years, the County is expected to grow by an additional 22.4%

• Much of the increase in population will be from natural increase, existing residents maturing through the life cycle

Orange County Population SummaryOrange County Population Summary

HOUSINGHOUSING

Housing Units by place, Orange County, 2000

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High (darker)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000


Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*


*Includes mobile homes

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

19902000


Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

19902000


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Orange Riverside San Diego

Median Value

Median Contract Rent

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.

Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000

Housing CostsHousing Costs

Index1 Rank2 FMR3 FMR3 FMR4th qtr. Rents Rents % Increase

MSA 2001 2001 2002 2001-2002

Orange (County) 37 19 1046 1097 4.9%San Bernardino-Riverside 50.8 37 621 656 5.6%San Diego 22.4 8 896 1012 12.9%

1 Housing Opportunity Index (NAHB, 2002): Share of homes affordable to median income2 Rank of MSA out of 181 regions across the nation (NAHB, 2002)3 Fair Market Rent for a 2 bedroom unit (HUD, 2002)

Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego CA

1990

2000

2000 2001 Percent ChangeOrange County 6,857 6,061 -11.6%Los Angeles-Long Beach 8,381 8,354 -0.3%Riverside-San Bernardino 18,998 23,203 22.1%San Diego County 9,296 9,442 1.6%

2000 2001 Percent ChangeOrange County 5,671 2,524 -55.5%Los Angeles-Long Beach 8,523 9,764 14.6%Riverside-San Bernardino 2,416 3,289 36.1%San Diego County 6,305 6,026 -4.4%

Single-Family

Multi-Family

Units Authorized by Building Permits,Units Authorized by Building Permits, 2000 & 2001 2000 & 2001

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

• Orange County housing stock grew by 10.8% from 1990 to 2000, lagging behind demand, as are many of CA housing markets

• The percentage of residential units authorized by building permits declined from 2000 to 2001 with multi-family showing a very large decrease

• In 2000, vacancy rates were very low at less than 1% for owner housing and 3% for renter housing

• Median housing value increased by about 7% and Median contract rent by just over 18% from 1990 to 2000

• Overcrowded units increased by 15.7% in the 1990s.

Orange County Housing SummaryOrange County Housing Summary

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT

Service Employment by place, Orange County, 2000

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High (darker)


Employment Change, 1990 to 2000Employment Change, 1990 to 2000


1990 2000 % Change

Orange County 1,292,472 1,338,838 3.59%Los Angeles 4,203,792 3,953,415 -5.96%Riverside 488,257 602,856 23.47%San Bernardino 591,371 661,272 11.82%San Diego 1,145,266 1,241,258 8.38%California 13,996,309 14,718,928 5.16%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Orange CA

1990

2000

Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000


Orange County Residents, Orange County Residents, Employment by Industry, 2000Employment by Industry, 2000

6.1%

16.1%

8.8%2.9%17.0%

12.6%

2.9%

11.2%

3.6%8.3%5.0% 0.4%5.0%

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining

Arts, Entertainment, Recr., Accom. &Food Serv.

Construction

Education, Health, & Social Services

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Information

Manufacturing

Professional, Scientific, Mngmnt., Admin.,& Waste Mngmnt Serv.

Public Administration

Retail

Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Other ServicesSource: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Orange LosAngeles


San Diego

1990

2000


Percent Work and Live in Same County, Percent Work and Live in Same County, 1990 & 20001990 & 2000

Top 5 Bottom 5Irvine 38.9% Cypress 12.5%Newport Beach 31.5% Villa Park 12.0%San Clemente 30.0% Placentia 11.3%Anaheim 29.4% La Palma 9.3%Santa Ana 28.7% Stanton 8.8%

Top 5 Bottom 5Santa Ana 93.2% La Habra 58.8%San Juan Capistrano 92.2% Cypress 56.7%Lake Forest 91.5% Los Alamitos 54.3%Costa Mesa 91.3% Seal Beach 51.2%Laguna Woods 90.8% La Palma 45.7%

Workplace and Residence, 2000Workplace and Residence, 2000

Live & Work in Same City*

Live in Specified City & Work in Orange County*

*Includes 33 cities (Aliso Viejo not included)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3

• The number of Orange County resident employees grew by 3.59% from 1990 to 2000, a much smaller increase than most of the surrounding counties

• Unemployment increased slightly from 1990 to 2000

• Residents are employed in a variety of industries suggesting an overall diversified economy; however, the pattern of residents by type of occupation is uneven.

Orange County Employment SummaryOrange County Employment Summary

Regional OutlookRegional Outlook

Business in Orange CountyBusiness in Orange County

Businesses needs workers Workers need affordable housing

Orange CrushOrange Crush

TrafficTraffic

Concentrated Poverty Concentrated Poverty Percent in Percent in PovertyPoverty, 1999, 1999


Concentrated Lower-Income Housing Concentrated Lower-Income Housing Location of Section 8 Voucher Holders, Location of Section 8 Voucher Holders,

OC Housing Authority, 2003OC Housing Authority, 2003

Based on a sample of 1268 voucher holders under the administration of the OCHA (Basolo, 2003).

In cooperation with the OCHA.

Growth Management Initiatives, Growth Management Initiatives, Orange County, 1986-2000*Orange County, 1986-2000*

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1986-1987

1988-1989

1990-1991

1992-1993

1994-1995

1996-1997

1998-1999

2000

*Special tabulations of growth management initiatives database, Courtesy of Mai Nguyen, Solimar Research Group

Economy

Jobs Housing

Traffic Air Quality Community

Quality of Life

Planning and Developing Housing Planning and Developing Housing Within the System of RelationsWithin the System of Relations

Strategic ActionStrategic Action

Regional Housing Regional Housing Needs AssessmentNeeds Assessment

SCAG determines existing and future housing needs for communities in the region*

Communities must incorporate these needs into the housing element of the jurisdiction’s General Plan*

Limited “transfer” of housing needs between jurisdictions**See California Government Code §65584

Regional ApproachRegional Approachto Housingto Housing

A regional agency with participation from all 34 cities and the County to ensure that housing is produced, not simply estimated (RHNA) and “planned”

Uniform and mandatory regulations for inclusionary affordable housing for both single-family and multi-family development

Contributions to affordable housing development through inclusionary units, redevelopment housing set-asides, fees, etc.

Cooperative development of programs to link housing and jobs

– Loans to employees who stay longer terms with employers and live close to work (sliding scale from full repayment to fully forgiven)

– Rental development agreements among employers, developers, and cities/counties (lease up at market and below market rents guaranteed for period of years)

– Development incentives to developers building mixed-income housing near job and transportation centers (loans, increased density, land at reduced cost)

Local jurisdictions, employers, developers (for profit and not-for-profit), & individuals

Cooperative ResponsesCooperative Responses

Cooperative Housing Development Fund

– Regional fund receiving donations and stream of revenue from employee tax and sales tax

– Land Trust (non profit) receiving donations and purchasing properties for permanent affordability



Cooperative Effort for State Legislation

– State tax credits for businesses with employer-assisted housing programs (certified by staff overseeing regional housing fund)

– State tax credits for landowners (landlords and owners) who demonstrate proximity of tenant to place of work

– Legislation to formalize an Orange County regional agency or compact



Documents

Affordable Housing Delivery: Demographics and a Rationale for Action Affordable Housing Delivery: Demographics and a Rationale for Action Presented to