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Triumphant Institute of Management Education P Ltd

Nyayapati Gautam

Afghanistan – Post 2014 scenario

Issues Post 2014 Effectiveness of the ANSF:

Pentagon review: Only one of 23 Afghan army brigades was capable of functioning on its own.

Literacy rates are low Desertion rates are high -

joined the insurgency. "green-on-blue" attacks:

Afghan troops attacking their American comrades.

Possibilities Post 2014

ANSF – disintegration along ethnic lines: If the Taliban, a Pashtun

entity, comes back to power it could lead to civil war.

Pashtun vs non-Pashtun forces.

Possibilities Post 2014

The Taliban is itself not united. Haqqani & Quetta Shura

Pakistan may continue to provide safe havens to the Talliban

Possibilities Post 2014

May lead to Political Instability: Four different coalitions

competing for power in Afghanistan today.

Pashtun-non-Pashtun political divide may lead to ethnic polarisation

Integration of the Taliban into the Pashtun-heavy central government in Kabul Instability

The Tajiks, Uzbeks and the Hazaras believe that Karzai is pro-Pashtun.

Impervious to ethnic sensitivities.

Possibilities Post 2014

Reconciliation with the Taliban: Could be acceptable to the

international community The Taliban feel triumphant

and are not in a mood to reconcile.

The terms set by the Karzai Govt.:

Adherence to the Constitution and Renunciation of violence.

Possibilities Post 2014

Drugs could be a huge problem: Efforts to curtail the

production of drugs and curb narco-trafficking have failed.

Vested interests in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia to facilitate drug trafficking from Afghanistan.

Taliban are dependent on drugs money at the moment

Socio economic issues.

Possibilities Post 2014

Integration with Central Asia: Transit hub between the

Indian subcontinent and Central Asia.

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline

It can earn substantial revenue from overland trade.

Possibilities Post 2014

Growth of female literacy

India in Afghanistan - Primary Goals

Prevent restoration of the Taliban Limit Pakistan’s influence Ensure that no hostile force

is in power. Militancy is linked to

problems in Kashmir.

India in Afghanistan Pakistan may not permit

India space in Afghanistan. Counter to this thought:

Pakistan is fast losing goodwill.

Taliban may not be able to take over Kabul so easily. Support from Pakistan will be hard to come by.

Recognition of a requirement of help. India a reliable partner.

India in Afghanistan Go beyond aid.

An FTA with Afghanistan Investment summit on

Afghanistan Help Afghanistan boost its

revenue generating capacity.

We can contribute in the field of revitalising agriculture, building infrastructure long term economic growth.

India in Afghanistan This long-term

arrangement will enable us to build ties with Central Asia. Without worrying about

Pakistan.

India in Afghanistan India Soft Power No military commitment

American reluctance – Pakistani sensitivities

Political reluctance

Strategic Partnership – Oct

2011 India will help train ANSF Economic aid and

assistance. The agreement provides an

additional $500 million on top of the $1 billion India has already spent since 2002.

In addition, India and Afghanistan will cooperate in the development of mining and energy production.

India in Afghanistan President Karzai’s

government had awarded India mining rights for the country’s biggest iron deposit.

India in Afghanistan And finally, the agreement

states that Afghanistan and India will: Establish a strategic

dialogue between their respective national security advisers

“to provide a framework for cooperation in the area of national security.”