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Ageing in the UK
Trends and Foresight: Report 7
Prepared for Big Lottery Fund
June 2015
Introduction to the Report
• This is the 7th in a series of reports produced by Trajectory to help BIG identify areas of emerging need across the UK.
• Each report provides either an overview of a set of topics or an in-depth analysis of specific issues. Previous reports are:
– Q1 2014 – Overview of Need in the UK
– Q2 2014 – Most in Need– Q3 2014 – Jobs & Skills/Poverty & Inequality– Q4 2014 – Childhood & Education– Q1 2015 – Poverty & Resilience– Q2 2015 – Community Cohesion
• These reports are all available to download on the BIG website: https://www.biglotteryfund.org.uk/research/research-round-up/foresight
• This report explores issues and emerging needs related to ageing in the UK
Contents
• The National Picture – Demographic context
– Income, Pensions and Retirement
– Health
• Loneliness
• Dementia
• Older Carers
• Volunteering
• Digital Inclusion
DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT
Demographic Context - Summary
• We find ourselves in a period in which society is constituted by four large, culturally distinct generational groupings.
• The size and progression of the Baby Boomer generation means that the number of over 65s has risen dramatically over 20 years; from 8.5 million over 65s in 1994/1995 to 10.6 million in 2012/2013.
• At the same time, the structure of life is changing. Parenthood, marriage and homeownership are happening later as is retirement.
• Life expectancy also continues to rise; from 80 to 83 for men and 84 to 87 for women.
Population growth is being driven by an
ageing society
Source: 2011 Census; Population Estimates for the United Kingdom
• Between 2001 and 2011 the population grew in the vast majority of local authorities in the UK. Out of 406
local authorities :
• 20 experienced a decline in population,
• 22 experienced growth of 15% or over,
• 240 underwent growth of 5 -14.9%.
• Of the 22 authorities that experienced growth of 15% or more, 9 were in London, with growth of this size in an already densely populated area providing unique pressures on services and housing.
• Further to this, ONS sub-national population
projections forecast London‟s population to grow by a further 13% by 2022, set against England‟s projected overall growth of 7%.
• Age is a significant driver of this population growth,
with local impacts: the number of local authorities where more than a quarter of residents are over 65 will increase from 24 in 2012 to 83 in 2022
Percentage difference in UK population, 2001-
2011, by local authority district
The Baby Boomer generation is reaching
retirement
Pre War
Baby Boomer
Gen X
Gen YGen Extra
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of UK adult (18+) population in each generational grouping, 1971–2020
2011: Oldest Baby Boomers
reach state pension age
Source: ONS/Trajectory
• When looking at this population growth it is important to consider the generational context.
• We are currently in a period of what David Willets refers to in „The Pinch‟ as “Generational Equipoise”. The median age is around 40 and people can expect to live to 80. On top of this, Ipsos MORI‟s „Generations‟ programme shows that we live in an age in which “four sizeable and culturally quite distinct cohorts” are coexisting.
• On top of this, we now find ourselves in the early stages of Baby Boomer as pensioner, and the progression of this enormous generational group through the latter stages of life will bring with it unique challenges .
Pensioner Population
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 3 3.4
2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.32.4
1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.92
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.51.6 1.6
1.60.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1 1
1.11.1 1.2
1.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Population of pensioners by age, United Kingdom (Millions)
65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 +
Source: Households Below Average Income (HBAI), Department for Work and Pensions, July 2014
Indeed, as the number of people living in the UK has risen, the population of pensioners has risen accordingly – from 8.5 million in 1994/1995 to 10.6 million in 2012/2013. The largest
rise across that time was in the number of those aged between 65-69, driven by the ageing of the baby boomers.
As more and more of this generation reach retirement age, this number will swell further, and as time progresses we will see the numbers of the older age groups showing similar
levels of substantial growth.
Over 65 population, 2015
Over 65 population, 2020
% change Over 80 population, 2015
Over 80population, 2020
% change
England 9,737,652 10,763,625 11% 2,659,496 3,054,909 15%
Wales 626,814 680,555 9% 165,418 188,705 14%
Scotland 988,205 1,080,252 9% 254,868 293,327 15%
Northern
Ireland293,091 327,235 12% 75,572 88,790 17%
UK 11,645,762 12,851,667 10% 3,155,354 3,625,731 15%
Ageing 2013-2018
Source: ONS 2012-based national population predictions
These numbers are predicted to rise and rise, with the number of over 65s in the UK projected to grow by 10% in total, in particular in England and Wales with growth of 11%
and 12% respectively.
More striking is the rate of growth in the population of over 85s, with a 15% increase across the UK as a whole between 2015 and 2020.
Pensioner PopulationCountry specific trends
Proportionately, the number of
pensioners will grow
• The longer term picture is even more dramatic, with the proportion of over 65s rising to well over 20% of the UK population – such long term forecasts underline the need for early intervention.
• The effect that this growth has onsocietal composition cannot be understated; between 2015 and 2035 the proportion of older people in all four UK countries is projected to increase by at least 6% in each nation.
• Northern Ireland and Scotland projected to have the largest increases in the proportion of older people; 8% and 7% respectively.
• By 2035, Wales is predicted to have the highest proportion of people aged 65 or older (26%), closely followed by Scotland (25%).
Source: Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
18%
20%
18%
16%
24%
26%25%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
England Wales Scotland N. Ireland
Persons aged 65 and over by UK country
as a % of total population
2015 2035
DependencyThe impact of ageing on society
3.21
2.74
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
UK Ratio of Working Age to Pension Age Adults:
Population Projections
Source: ONS 2012-Based National Population Projections
The effect of this ageing society is to dramatically alter the ratio between working age and pension age adults; known as the dependency ratio.
From 2012 to 2037 there is set to be a decrease in this ratio, from 3.21 working age adults to each pensioner to 2.74 working age adults to each pensioner - this represents the loss of
almost half of one working person for every pensioner in the UK.
More than simply a lack of working age people, increasing dependency rates have knock on effects on a range of important factors; lower tax revenues, higher government spending,
raised retirement ages and the inevitably diminished productive capacity of the nation as a whole mean that an ageing population affects the young as well as the old.
Ratio peaks at 3.47 in 2020
Declines consistently thereafter, reaching 2.69 in
2034
Regional Contexts
• Although the ageing society trend is apparent
at national level, it is important to point out that not all areas will experience the effects of this trend in the same way – a hugely important dynamic in allocating provision.
• Whilst the concentration of the elderly in the
South West, North West, and North East is particularly high, the sheer number of over 65s living in London is very substantial
• As an example it is clear that whilst the effects of ageing will be a problem for both London
and the South West, the challenges they face may be entirely different. Whilst London may struggle to appropriately house its ageing population, the South West may struggle to care for it, with the role of older carers of paramount importance.
Source: http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?p=4201; Oxford University - November 3rd 2014
Cartogram displaying the size and concentration of the UK
Population Age 65 and Older
Concentrated Growth
Over 65s in England
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
North East North West Yorkshire and
the Humber
East Midlands West
Midlands
East London South East South West
Projected number of over 65s; English Regions
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Source: 2012-based subnational population predictions for England – Office for National Statistics
In England, the South East will see the fastest growth: in 2012 the number of people aged 65 and over in the region was 1,557,705, a number projected to rise by over a million to a
projected 2,683,720.
However, as the chart shows, all regions will see significant and sustained growth in the number of over 65s over the next 20 years
Concentrated Growth
Over 65s in Wales
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000 Projected number of over 65s; Wales Local Authorities
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Source: 2011 based Welsh Local Authority Population Projections - StatsWales
The regional picture is similar for Wales, with every area seeing significant and
sustained growth. The fastest growth is contained in those areas which are already
most densely populated - such as Cardiff, which will see the number of over 65s
grow from 46,741 in 2012 to 76,684 in 2037
Concentrated Growth
Over 65s in Scotland
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Ayrshire &
Arran
Forth Valley Grampian Greater
Glasgow &
Clyde
Highland Lanarkshire Lothian Tayside
Projected number of over 65s; Scotland NHS Board Areas
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Source: 2012 based population projection - National Records of Scotland
As with Wales and England, Scotland will see growth in the number of older
people in every region. Typically, the strongest growth will come in the Greater
Glasgow and Clyde area, where the number of over 65s will grow from 182,000
to 277,500 between 2012 and 2037
Concentrated Growth
Over 65s in Northern Ireland
Source: 2012 based projections - Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Projected number of over 65s; Northern Ireland Local Government Districts
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Northern Ireland is no exception in terms of ageing – once again every region
will see growth. The extent of ageing is not confined to the most populous areas
here, however – while Belfast will see growth from 48,466 over 65s in 2012 to
75,039 in 2037, Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon will see its population almost
double in the same period – from 28,690 to 54,811
Concentrated Growth
• Whilst we see from the cartogram (slide 11) that the concentration of
over 65s in the UK is highest in the South West, North West and North
East of England, these charts show us that in terms of sheer numbers,
cities and their surrounding areas - such as Glasgow, Cardiff and
Belfast, as well as the South East in the case of England - will be
dealing with the largest number of pensioners relative to their
respective national contexts by some distance.
• From 2012 to 2037 the number of over 65s in the South East of
England is predicted to rise from 1,557,705 to 2,683,720, in Cardiff
from 45,741 to 76,684, in Glasgow from 182,000 to 277,500, and
Belfast from 48,466 to 75,039.
• It is not simply the number of over 65s which will change across the
UK however, our experience of ageing as a factor in the life-course
will be altered dramatically over the course of time...
Changing Structure of Life
Source: Willmott, Nelson, Complicated Lives, 2005 / Trajectory
• Though society is ageing as a whole, this will not necessarily result in an expansion of an elderly generation as we know it
today.
• As the structure of life changes – later parenthood, better health and greater independence in old age – the
meaning of age will change with it. In this scenario parenthood could last into the 60s, whilst the period in which the eldest among us are „mature & free (post-family)‟ will expand well into old age.
• Though this will undoubtedly increase certain types of freedoms, the end-of-life stage will also lengthen, perhaps perpetuating the need for care – and
increasing dependence on the elderly to care for each other and themselves.
2015
Changing Structure of Life
• The structure of life – and changes
to it – are important to bear in
mind due to the effects that they
can have on the type of elderly
population that a particular region
has.
• Using migration as an example, we
can see that there is a clear
pattern in the way in which
people migrate post-550
1
2
3
4
55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
%
Age
Moves into new local authorities as % of mid-2013 55+ year old population
Source: ONS
• There are economic factors which intersect these patterns. Those on above
average incomes are more likely to move to improve their quality of lives, whilst
those on lower incomes were more likely to move closer to their children seeking
greater support. Similarly, those on low incomes were more likely to move later in
the life course, moving only when compelled by escalating health need.
• As the life-course changes, as what was once „old age‟ is stretched across time
and life expectancy continues to increase, the two types of migration which
occur will become increasingly diverse.
Source: Migration in later life: evidence from the British Household Panel Study ; 2010 Report
Life expectancy is increasing
These changes to the life-course, and the subsequent changing structure of life are dictated by a variety of factors.
Improvements in health, increasing life expectancy, and the ability to work further into old age has resulted in the gradual increase in the state pension age; itself a factor in
dictating when we retire and how we do so. Increasingly life expectancy is also, of course, a trend driving the ageing society overall
Source: UK Life expectancy at birth; 2010-based Period and Cohort Life Expectancy tables
ONS; Pensionable Age and Life Expectancy, 1958-2050; OECD, 2011
72
8377
87
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
UK Life expectancy at birth (years); 1985-2035
Male Life Expectancy Female Life Expectancy
In-equal ageingPost retirement life expectancy
Importantly, there are both wealth and gender dimensions ageing.
The life expectancy gap between rich and poor UK local authority areas has
increased 41% for men and 73% for women in the last 20 years (The Equality Trust).
Ageing is universal and from 2020 the state pension age will be equalised for men and
women, the experience of this ageing, and its duration is uneven however, and as a
result there will be huge differences in the way men and women, and the rich and
poor experience old age.
11.9
16.918.9
21.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
1958 1971 1983 1989 1993 1999 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
UK Life expectancy after pensionable age (years), 1958-2050
Men Women
Source: UK Life expectancy at birth; 2010-based Period and Cohort Life Expectancy tables
ONS; Pensionable Age and Life Expectancy, 1958-2050; OECD, 2011
After SPA is increased, life expectancy post-SPA
decreases
INCOME, PENSIONS & RETIREMENT
Income, Pensions & Retirement -
Summary
• The state pension age is set to equalise with regard to gender, whilst increasing in accordance with life expectancy and improved health in later life.
• Pension poverty has improved drastically; in 1992 the proportion of people aged 65 and over living in absolute poverty was 47%, dropping to 15% in 2012/2013.
• The number of people working past the age of 65 has risen; 5.5% of over 65s were in work in 1992, a figure which has risen by almost 100% to 10.9% in 2015.
• Though health is improving, this is not why most expect to work deep into old age; 54% of 25-34s, 54% of 35-44s, and 53% of 45-54s expect to retire late due to financial shortcomings.
Older people’s income
• Analysis of data on the incomes and wealth of those aged over 65 shows two clear trends
– Firstly, the number of older people living on very low incomes has
declined substantially since the mid-1990s, and unlike poverty
levels for other demographic groups, has not increased in the last
5 years
– Secondly, those older people who are on low incomes remains
substantial, and this group face a number of challenges in
making ends meet financially
• New trends are also emerging that demonstrate the impact of these challenges:– Rising number of people working beyond the age of 65
– A substantial gap between the expectation of state provision and the
quality of it
– A rise in the minimum income standard for pensioners
A Recent History of the State Pension
The state pension is a “contribution-based” benefit, dependent on National Insurance contributions, with a flat rate of £115.95 per week payable to those with 30 qualifying years in which National
Insurance payments were made.
2007 saw the Labour Government pass a new law to raise state pension age to 66 between April 2024 and April 2026, to 67 between April 2034 and April 2036, and 68 between April 2044 and April 2046.
These changes were brought forward in 2011 with the announcement that the rise in the state pension
age to 67 will be brought forward by 8 years, with the change taking place between 2026 and 2028.
The state pension is projected to continue to rise in accordance with life expectancy, with the projected 20 year life expectancy after pensionable age for those born in 2050 representing a two year
increase on the OECD projection for those retiring in 2050.
1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2050
Date of Birth
Projected rises in life expectancy and state
pension age
Life Expectancy
State Pension Age
Source: People born today won‟t get state pension until age 77; PWC
Minimum Income Standard
£158£132
£201 £210
£283 £287
£370
£198 £182
£263£291
£383 £396
£482
£0
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
Single, working
age
Pensioner single Pensioner
couple
Lone parent, 1
child
Lone parent, 2
children
Couple, 1 child Couple, 2
children
Minimum requirements not including rent or childcare (£ per week)
2008 2014
Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2014
The Minimum Income Standard is defined as the income people need in order to
reach a minimum socially acceptable standard of living in the UK.
Minimum income for a single pension or pensioner couple have not seen the biggest
increases in recent years, but nevertheless have risen substantially since 2008
The minimum income standard is higher – at £182 – than the maximum basic state
pension (£115.95)
Gap between expectation and
provision
98% 100% 99% 99%
22% 22%
31% 33%
50% 49% 49% 50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
It should be the
government's responsibility
to provide a decent
standard of living for the old
The government is successful
in providing a decent
standard of living for the old
I would like to see more
spending on benefits for
retired people
Almost all people believe it is the government‟s responsibility to provide a
decent standard of living for the elderly – but far fewer believe they are
successful in doing so
Poverty and Age
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Estimated percentage of people absolute low income after housing cost;
United Kingdom
Children Pensioners Working-age
Source: Households Below Average Income (HBAI), Department for Work and Pensions, July 2014
Absolute Pension Poverty
Estimated percentage of pensioners
living in ABSOLUTE low income, United
Kingdom
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
19
94
/19
95
19
95
/19
96
19
96
/19
97
19
97
/19
98
19
98
/19
99
19
99
/20
00
20
00
/20
01
20
01
/20
02
20
02/2
00
3
20
03
/20
04
20
04
/20
05
20
05
/20
06
20
06
/20
07
20
07
/20
08
20
08
/20
09
20
09
/20
10
20
10
/20
11
20
11/2
01
2
20
12
/20
13
Before Housing Costs After Housing Costs
Estimated percentage of pensioners
living in RELATIVE low income, United
Kingdom
Source: Households Below Average Income (HBAI), Department for Work and Pensions, July 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
19
94
/19
95
19
95
/19
96
19
96
/19
97
19
97
/19
98
19
98
/19
99
19
99
/20
00
20
00
/20
01
20
01/2
00
2
20
02
/20
03
20
03
/20
04
20
04
/20
05
20
05
/20
06
20
06
/20
07
20
07/2
00
8
20
08
/20
09
20
09
/20
10
20
10
/20
11
20
11
/20
12
20
12
/20
13
Before Housing Costs After Housing Costs
Self-Reported Financial Difficulties
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Ne
ve
r
So
me
tim
es
Alw
ays
Ne
ve
r
So
me
tim
es
Alw
ays
Ne
ve
r
So
me
tim
es
Alw
ays
Ne
ve
r
So
me
tim
es
Alw
ays
Ne
ve
r
So
me
tim
es
Alw
ays
Ne
ve
r
So
me
tim
es
Alw
ays
Single Men Single Women Couples Single Men Single Women Couples
Reports Having Financial Difficulty Reports Managing Very Well
Persistence of self-reported financial difficulties and persistence of managing very well financially,
by age and family type
50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
• "having financial difficulties" includes those reporting that they "don't manage very well", "have some financial
difficulties" or "have severe financial difficulties". Those "managing very well" includes only those reporting in the
highest category (manage very well).
• The graph shows starkly that the vast majority of pensioners never report having financial difficulty, a finding made
even more clear when the stratification of the results is taken into account.
• Whilst a large portion of respondents state that they never manage well, a greater proportion report that they
sometimes manage well , whilst there is also a reasonable number who report that they always manage well.
• Alongside the HBAI data on falling pension poverty, this chart – based on ELSA data – shows that whilst a large
number of pensioners never feel as if they are managing well, nor are they necessarily encountering financial
difficulty.
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Wave 5, 2009–10
Around half of over 60s live on very little
Weekly
income
Yearly
income
60-69 year
olds
70-79 year
olds
80+ year
olds
Less £100 Less £5,200 2% 0.5% 0.9%
£100-150 £5,200-7,800 8.2% 9.9% 9.8%
£150-200 £7,800-10,400 7.7% 10.5% 17.9%
£200-250 £10,400-13,000 8% 13.1% 14.3%
£250-300 £13,000-15,600 8.9% 13.7% 15.5%
£300-350 £15,600-18,200 6.6% 10.8% 9.2%
£350-400 £18,200 -20,800 7.3% 6.1% 7.7%
£400+ £20,800+ 51.3% 35.4% 24.7%
Source: Living Costs and Food Survey 2011
As people get older, their income decreasesAs such, the proportion of people from each age band in lower income groups rises
For example, 49% of 60-69 year olds live on less than £400 per week, but 75% of over 80s live on the same amount
35% 48% 58%
Components of expenditure 60-69 year olds
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
£6,500 £9,100 £11,700 £14,300 £16,900 £19,500
Each component of expenditure, as a % of total
weekly income (60-69 year olds)
Other (repairs etc)
Appliances
Leisure and other everyday expenditure
Essential every day expenditure
Source: Living Costs and
Food Survey
• 49% spend at least 90% of their income on everyday expenditure
• 35% spend at least100% of their income on everyday expenditure
• For people living on around £6,500 a year, emergency expenditure on appliances or repairs would amount to 42% of their income
Components of expenditure70-79 year olds
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
£6,500 £9,100 £11,700 £14,300 £16,900 £19,500
Each component of expenditure, as a % of
total weekly income (70-79 year olds)
Other (repairs etc)
Appliances
Leisure and other everyday expenditure
Essential every day expenditure
Source: Living Costs and
Food Survey
• 65% spend at least 80% of their income on everyday expenditure
• 24% spend at least 90% of their income on
everyday expenditure
• 10% spend at least100% of their income on everyday expenditure
• For people living on around £6,500 a year, emergency expenditure on appliances or repairs would amount to 42% of their income
More people are working beyond 65
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1992 Q
3
1993 Q
2
1994 Q
1
1994 Q
4
1995 Q
3
1996 Q
2
1997 Q
1
1997 Q
4
1998 Q
3
1999 Q
2
2000 Q
1
2000 Q
4
2001 Q
3
2002 Q
2
2003 Q
1
2003 Q
4
2004 Q
3
2005 Q
2
2006 Q
1
2006 Q
4
2007 Q
3
2008 Q
2
2009 Q
1
2009 Q
4
2010 Q
3
2011 Q
2
2012 Q
1
2012 Q
4
2013 Q
3
2014 Q
2
2015 Q
1
Number (000s) and % of over 65s who are economically active, quarterly
Women Men Rate
The chart below demonstrates the sustained rise in the number of older people (both male
and female) working beyond 65. While part of this growth will be due to both choice and
rising SPA, the sharp rise since 2010 suggests that for some, this delayed retirement is due to
financial necessity
Financial necessity of working beyond 65
37%
54% 54% 53%
33%
14%
9%
8%3%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74
Which is the main reason you expect to retire from your main job after age 65 (if at all)?
Because you are not sure what else to doBecause you can't afford to stop earning money
Source: 2011 British Social Attitudes Survey
Many workers in their 40s, 50s and 60s expect to carry on working beyond 65 because they will
need to keep earning money – reinforcing the suggestion from ONS data that a key driver of
the increase in working later in life is financial. Workers in the lowest two quartiles by income
are the most likely to say they can‟t afford to stop earning (48% overall, compared with 38%
for the top quartiles)
10% of people approaching retirement feel they will be forced to retire
9%
6%
3%2%
4%
8%
4%
6%
4%
6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
Which is the main reason you expect to retire from your main job
(before/at) age 65?Because you don t expect your employer will
allow you to work beyond 65
Because of ill-health
Source: 2011 British Social Attitudes Survey
As well as delayed retirement, another area of emerging need is forced early
retirement – where people feel compelled to retire before they would ideally like to.
While the majority will retire through choice, 10% of those approaching retirement say
the reason they will stop is due either to ill health or because of lack of opportunity
HEALTH
Health – Summary
• Subjective wellbeing rises immediately after retirement age, but then drops sharply after the age of 80 in every category
• Overall, self-reported poor physical health is in decline,
although the proportion agreeing that they are often troubled by pain has increased slightly
• The impact of physical ill health and frailty are felt most by
women over the age of 80 – at this point, everyday activities
become markedly more difficult
• Issues related to health – dementia and loneliness – are not
explored here but in more detail later in this report
Well-being declines sharply at 80
Source: Annual Population Survey Personal Well-being; Office for National Statistics (2012-13)
7.75
8.00
7.67
7.80
8.02
7.70
7.78
7.94
7.627.637.58
7.49
7.74
7.9
7.6
7.20
7.30
7.40
7.50
7.60
7.70
7.80
7.90
8.00
8.10
Life Satisfaction Feeling worthwhile Happiness
65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 & over All aged 65+
In every measure of wellbeing, people experience a steady decline
after age 80
For satisfaction, feeling worthwhile and happiness, the same trend is
evident – wellbeing peaks between the ages of 70-74, declines slightly
between 75-79 and then sharply after 80
Trends in wellbeing
6.6
6.8
7
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8
Under
50
50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Life satisfaction, mean score (0 =
Lowest, 10 = Highest)
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
Source: Annual Population Survey Personal Well-being; Office for National Statistics
6.6
6.8
7
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8
Under
50
50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Feeling of being worthwhile,
mean score (0 = Lowest, 10 =
Highest)
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
6.6
6.8
7
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8
Under
50
50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Happiness, mean score (0 =
Lowest, 10 = Highest)
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014
Although wellbeing declines with age, over time the scores are slowly
improving for every age group (including the over 80s)
Poor health is in decline
4% 3% 3% 3%
10%9% 9% 9%
11%10%
9%10%
15%14%
12%13%
20%
19%18% 18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
% of respondents who described their health as poor
Under 50 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Source: Understanding Society
The overarching trend in self-reported physical health is a positive one; across the four year
period from 2009 to 2013 the percentage of people who describe their health as poor as
decreased among each age group.
This trend was most pronounced from 2009 to 2012, however it is worth pointing out that these
decreases stalled between 2011 and 2013, with slight increases in the number of people who
stated that their health was poor among the 60-69s and 70-79s.
Day to day health issues are a dominant
concern
% of over-50s saying they are
often troubled by pain
36%39%
44%45%
39%42% 43%
46%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89
2010-11 2012-13
% who say pain is severe most
of the time
19% 19%
23%
25%
17% 17%
21%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89
2010-11 2012-13
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
Everyday difficulties (ADL)Daily activities get more difficult with age
9%
2%
6%
2%
5%
2%
10%
2%
6%
2%
5%
3%
15%
4%
11%
3%
7%
5%
24%
11%
22%
7%
11%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Difficulty
dressing
Difficulty
walking across
a room
Difficulty
bathing
Difficulty
eating
Difficulty
getting in/out
of bed
Difficulty using
a toilet
Self reported difficulty in doing each of the following activities, by age,
2012-13
50-59 60-69
70-79 80-89
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Wave 6
Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) are tasks required by all people in the morning, and deal with
basic activities such as walking, dressing and using the bathroom.
Difficulty in doing any one of these activities indicates a significant area of need
Everyday difficulties (IADL)Daily activities get more difficult with age
3%1%
3%6%
1% 2% 1%
10%
2%3%1%
3%6%
1% 2% 1%
11%
2%
6%
1%
6%
10%
3%5%
3%
17%
4%
13%
6%
13%
25%
9%11%
8%
33%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Self reported difficulty in doing each of the following activities, by age,
2012-13
50-59 60-69
70-79 80-89
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Wave 6
Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs) are activities people do once they are up, which
support an independent lifestyle. As with ADLs, the proportion finding one or more of these
activities difficult increases substantially with age
Everyday difficulties (ADL)Women more likely to report difficulty than men
13%
3%
8%
2%
6%
3%
12%
4%
11%
3%
7%
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Difficulty dressing Difficulty walking
across a room
Difficulty bathing Difficulty eating Difficulty getting
in/out of bed
Difficulty using a
toilet
Self reported difficulty in doing each of the following activities, by age,
2012-13
Men Women
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Wave 6
Everyday difficulties (IADL)Women more likely to report difficulty than men
4%
2%
5%
7%
4%5%
3%
13%
4%
6%
2%
6%
11%
2% 3% 3%
17%
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Self reported difficulty in doing each of the following activities, by age,
2012-13
Men Women
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Wave 6
LONELINESS
Loneliness - Summary
• Loneliness remains a gendered issue; far more prevalent among women than men. It is possible that this is caused by the life expectancy gap between men and women and the resultant widowing that comes with it.
• Loneliness and depression have impacts beyond mental health, those who experience social isolation are five times more likely to die prematurely than those with strong social ties.
• The experience of long-standing illness has a slight impact on the prevalence of loneliness, however when the illness comes with physical limitations loneliness drastically increases.
• Loneliness and depression are increasingly experienced by the young. Longitudinal research has shown the potential for childhood conditions to affect future social isolation, and so it is worth considering the possibility that the high level of loneliness and depression in young people in 2015 could create enormous need in 2055.
Loneliness is prevalent but stable
34%
29%
32%
46%
33%
29%
32%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
52–59 60–69 70–79 80 and over
Loneliness (some of the time or often): by
age group
2010 - 2011 2012 - 2013
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Wave 6
28%
23% 24%
29%
37%
34%
38%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89
% feeling lonely some of the time or often
(2012-13)
Men Women
Loneliness is a prevalent and well-established area of need affecting older people –
especially women and those over the age of 80. It remains stable, however, with no
increases in the proportion of any age group saying they feel lonely at least some of the
time
Impact of Loneliness
• Throughout the literature on loneliness
an important link is made between
loneliness and depression. For
example, how lonely you are this year
serves as a strong indicator for how
depressed you will be next year
(Cacioppo; Conference Paper, 2006).
• Loneliness – and subsequent
depression – has the ability to create
“changes in the brain and body which
can contribute to or precipitate ill
health.” (Campaign to End Loneliness,
2012).
• Individuals who are socially isolated
are between two and five times more
likely than those who have strong
social ties to die prematurely.‟
(Marmot M. 2010). Fair society, healthy
lives, The Marmot Review
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Feel downhearted or depressed most or all of the time
Diagnosed with clinical depression
The effects of the young and lonely
• Research using TILSA (The Irish Longitudinal
Study on Ageing) by Kamiya et al, (2013),
has illustrated the relationship between
loneliness in old age and a variety of
childhood factors.
• Whilst this study did not use childhood
loneliness as a factor for loneliness in old
age, a relationship was established
between socioeconomic status, level of
education and parental substance abuse,
highlighting the importance of childhood
experiences to the experience of loneliness
in old age.
• The importance of the progression of
loneliness and depression throughout life will
be very important moving forth; large
numbers of young people experience these
maladies, and they could contribute to far
higher incidence of loneliness and
depression in the elderly in 40 years.
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/jul/20/loneliness-britains-silent-plague-hurts-young-people-most
Loneliness exacerbated by ill health
22% 22%
31%
5%7%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
No long standing illness Long standing illness but
no limitations
Long standing illness
with limitations
Frequency of loneliness: by status of
long standing illness
Lonely some of the time Lonely often
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Wave 5, 2009–10
• The impact and extent of
loneliness increases if the
individual has a
longstanding illness that
causes them some
limitations.
• Whilst those with no long
standing illness and those
with long standing illness with
no limitations are almost
inseparable, the effect of
limitations leads to an
enormous increase in the
prevalence of loneliness.
Example: alleviating loneliness
• One scheme which has been effective in softening the transition into retirement and reducing loneliness among the elderly is the concept of “Men‟s Sheds”.
• Started in Australia in 2006 these sheds provide a place to socialise with purpose, creating everything from jigsaw puzzles to „bee hotels‟.
• Brought to these shores by AGE UK, are now well over 100 of these sheds, which cost approximately £5,000 per year to run and are 95% self-sufficient.
DEMENTIA
Dementia - Summary
• Women are more likely to suffer from dementia than men, with the difference most pronounced past the age of 85.
• If incidence remains the same, increases in both life expectancy and the number of those aged both over 65 and 85 will see the number of dementia sufferers rise by over 100%, from 800,000 in 2012 to 2,200,000 by 2051.
• Perhaps unsurprisingly given the data showing the incidence of loneliness in conjunction with physical limitations brought about by illness, social isolation is disproportionately high in those suffering from dementia.
• On top of this, dementia sufferers often find themselves in conditions which exacerbate this social isolation. 312,000 dementia sufferers live in residential homes, with loneliness also disproportionately high amongst the residential care community.
685,812
19,76566,77343,477
815,827
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
UK Total Constituent Nations
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
England
Source: Dementia UK: Update, 2014
Dementia Incidence
Across the UK, over 800,000 people had dementia in 2014 – the majority of which are in
England (due not to increased prevalence but simply to higher population levels). The
total cost of dementia to society in the UK is £26.3 billion, with an average cost of £32,250
per person. The cost of this unpaid care is £11.6 billion, working out as 44% of the total
cost of dementia.
Dementia Incidence by Gender
0.9%1.8%
3.0%
6.6%
11.7%
20.2%
33.0%
44.2%
0.9%1.5%
3.1%
5.3%
10.3%
15.1%
22.6%
28.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+
Female
Male
Source: Dementia UK: Update, 2014
Dementia incidence increases sharply with age – while fewer than 1 in 100 people aged
under 65 will suffer from the condition, a third of women in their 90s will. There is also a
strong gender dimension to the incidence of dementia, with women much more likely to
be affected than men
Incidence of dementia will rise
Source: Dementia UK: Update, 2014
The rising number of older people means that the number affected by dementia will
rise (even if incidence remains the same) - by over 100%, from just over 800,000 to just
under 2,200,000 by the mid-point of the 21st Century. With women‟s life expectancy
still higher than men‟s, we will see a higher number of female sufferers than males.
Projected Increases by Age
Source: Dementia UK: Update, 2014
The effect of the ageing society is best illustrated here. Whilst the number of people
aged 65-69, 70-74, 75-79 and 80-84 are set to increase very gradually, the number of
people aged over 85 is set to increase dramatically over the next few decades, and
with the prevalence of dementia set to stay the same or indeed increase as a result
of greater sensitivity in diagnosis we are likely to see enormous growth in the number
of people aged 85 who experience dementia.
Location of care
8,960 10,010
20,050
39,480
58,140
108,940
52,390
14,030
23,177
47,743
57,326
86,194
114,086
61,180
72,364
30,939
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+
Number of people aged 60 years and over in the UK with dementia living in residential care and in
the community, by age group
Residential Care
Community
Source: Dementia UK: Update, 2014
Among people with late-onset dementia, 311,730 (38.7%) are living in care homes (either residential care or nursing homes) and 493,639 (61.3%) are living in the community
How we deal with the increasing number of people with dementia, and how people perceive that this should be paid will be an increasingly politicised issue. If the public view maintains that the government
should pay for assisted living, and voter turnout amongst the young remains low, the provision of residential care could become a key electoral battleground.
Dementia and Loneliness
• Occurrence of social isolation is disproportionately high in those who suffer from Dementia.
• This is inextricably related to the condition itself; loneliness is generally higher among those living alone or in residential care, and poor health, reduced mobility and cognitive impairment.
• Whilst dementia can contribute to peoples‟ experience of loneliness, there is also evidence which suggests that the risk of Alzheimer‟s disease more than doubles in older people experiencing loneliness (Wilson et al, 2007), although the same study acknowledges that it is not one of the leading causes
Source: Dementia 2013: The hidden voice of loneliness
OLDER CARERS
Older carers - summary
• Women are notably more likely to be care givers in later life than men, but if men live to be over 80, they are more likely to
find themselves in a caring role
• Caring itself has a number of wider impacts – including preventing work and thereby damaging income and financial
security
• Having adult children is considered a vital source of help in old age, and, as will be explored later in the report, taking
advantage of digital technologies to maintain
communications is an important component of this support
The number of older male carers is increasing
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 2012-2013
Cared for sick or disabled adult in last month (%) by age; men
52–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80+
As the above graph shows, there has been a slight increase in the number of males
above the age of 52 who have cared for a sick or disabled adult in the past month.
The most marked increases were present in the 60-64 and 80+ cohorts – 2.1% and
3.4% respectively – which provides for an interesting comparison to the data for
their female counterparts.
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Wave 6
Older female carers are also increasing
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 2012-2013
Cared for sick or disabled adult in last month (%) by age; women
52–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80+
The number of women providing care later into old age has also increased – with the largest increases found in the 55-59 and 60-64 cohort, with 4.0% and 8.0% rises respectively.
The slowest growth has been among the 80+ cohort, in marked contrast to the statistics for men.
Taking these charts together we see that both men and women increasingly acting as carers long into old age; reiterating the importance of changes in the life-course to the experience of ageing in 2015
and beyond. Both men and women are living longer, but as health deteriorates at a slower pace, more and more elderly people are finding themselves caring for their counterparts.
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Wave 6,
Who Cares?
10%20%
15% 11% 9%
21%30%
17%
16% 20%17%
14%
19%51%
52%
47% 47%
45%38%
37%5%
5%19% 15%
23% 17%
3%
9%
4%3% 7% 4% 9% 11%
24%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over
In your household who looks after sick family members? (categories cover self/partner)
Done by 3rd person
Always spouse/partner
Usually spouse/partner
About equal
Usually me
Always me
Source: 2012 British Social Attitudes Survey
Data from a different source, the British Social Attitudes Survey, provides further confirmation of the level of care administered by the elderly. 49% of those aged 75 and over and 35% of those aged 65-74 state that it is either always, or usually them who provide care in the household, with 37% and 38%
respectively stating that they do an equal share with their partner.
This furthers the notion that although people are living longer, more able lives, they are not necessarily basking in the freedom of old age – many are left to care for loved ones the health of
whom has deteriorated
The importance of adult children
11% 12% 11% 9% 6% 9% 14%
44%49% 57%
44% 46% 44%
54%
36% 27% 20%
26% 26% 28%
19%
8% 9% 13%19% 18% 16%
10%
1% 2% 1% 3% 4% 4% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over
To what extent do you agree or disagree that adult children are an important source of help for
elderly parents?
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neither agree nor
disagree
Agree
Strongly Agree
Source: 2012 British Social Attitudes Survey
The data below – from 2012 – shows the importance attributed to adult children in
taking care of their parents in old age. Though we do not mean to say that this will
have changed drastically over time, adult children have long played a role in caring
for their elders, it seems clear that with more and more people living into their 80s and
beyond, the role of adult child carer may extend into the 40s, 50s or even 60s.
Caring prevents work
17%
27% 27%
34%
25%24%
16%
27%28%
27%
24% 24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
% replying that caring responsibilities completely prevents work, by age
2009-10
2012-13
1 in 4 over 50s are prevented from working due to caring responsibilities –
although this has declined slightly in recent years, is likely to have significant
knock on effects in terms of poverty and wellbeing
Source: Understanding Society Wave 1/4
Who should provide care?
Who should be responsible for paying for care needs of elderly people living in residential/nursing homes (2010)
11% 14% 14%
89% 86% 86%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
55-64 65-74 75+
Person and family Government
Do you support private companies/charities providing care for older people? (2012)
34%
27%24%
54%
42%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
55-64 65-74 75+
Support private companies
Support charities/NFP
Source: 2010/2012 British Social Attitudes Survey
This data from the British Social Attitudes survey indicates a preference for charities or NFP organisations providing social care, rather than private companies (although this declines with age)
VOLUNTEERING
Volunteering - Summary
• Though the number of people volunteering from 2010 to 2013 has stayed the same amongst the section of society aged 20-49, it has increased slightly in those aged 50-79.
• Once again we see a gendered divide; women are more likely than men to volunteer on a monthly basis.
• Despite what we see with regards to older carers – namely that men who live past 80 tend to be more able than women of the same age – women aged over 80 are more likely to volunteer than men.
• With volunteering often comes the forging of strong social networks, a key factor in battling loneliness. Though loneliness is more prevalent in women than men, there is a pronounced rise in the number of men who experience loneliness past 80 years of age. The indication in our analysis of older carers that men aged over 80 are likely to be more able than their female counterparts shows that there is potential for men to get more involved, perhaps in a scheme such as the aforementioned „Men‟s Sheds‟.
Volunteering rises amongst older people
16%
13%
18% 18%
22%21%
12%
16%
13%
18%19%
24%23%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
2010-11
2012-13
Source: Understanding Society Wave 2/4
Since 2010 the number of people aged 60-79 volunteering has increased. Although
this rise is only minor (2% increases for both those in their 60s and 70s) it is the only rise
evident across the population – for all other age groups, the proportion volunteering
has remained stable.
Gendered dimension to voluntary work
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011
% of respondents who volunteer ‘about once a
month’ or ‘twice a month or more’ by age; men
Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011
% of respondents who volunteer ‘about once a
month’ or ‘twice a month or more’ by age; women
52–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80+
Despite the decline in the proportion of 70-74 and 80+ males and 55-59 and 60-64 year old females stating that they volunteer „about once a month‟ or „twice a month or more‟, the pace
of decline in these age ranges is outstripped by the pace of growth in the frequency of volunteering in the other cohorts.
Volunteering and Loneliness
• With loneliness highest amongst those aged 80 and over, and the
number of people of this age set to increase in the coming years, the
decline in the number of people in this cohort volunteering is a concern.
• Volunteering is not only effective in easing the transition to retirement, it is
often accompanied by a “boost to self-esteem and feelings of self-
worth”, whilst also assisting in the formation of a strong social network.
• This decline in the number of those volunteering frequently could
effectively lead to an increase in those suffering from problems resulting
from social isolation, as less people feel the benefits which come with it.
• The relationship between loneliness and depression has already been
identified, and as such by reducing social isolation through volunteering
the resultant depression caused by loneliness could have enormous
health benefits moving forward.
Source: Improving social isolation and loneliness; NHS Surrey, 2013
DIGITAL INCLUSION
Digital Inclusion - Summary
• The elderly do not have dissimilar levels of access to digital technology; but the way they use it is different.
• Only a small proportion of those over 65 are what Age Concern call „refuseniks‟, those who want nothing to do with these digital technologies. Instead, reasons for lack of social media participation revolve around lack of understanding and fear of the unknown.
• Practical activities such as e-mail, banking and booking travel are carried out online almost uniformly across the age bands, but the young are far more likely to „live online‟, using social media, messaging and playing games.
• Digital interaction amongst the elderly is social media averse, 20% use social media compared to 84% who use phone calls and 71% who use e-mail. Social media is also seen to be the least important form of interaction with a mean score of 1.7 out of 10 for importance compared to 8.2 for phone calls and 6.4 for e-mail.
The digital divide is changing
Traditionally, the digital divide has referred to the gap between people who have access to new digital technologies (esp. the internet), and those who don‟t
However, as access grows (in 2013, the ITU estimated that 90% of the population use the internet) that divide is less impactful – although of course many of those still without internet
access are the elderly
Instead, it is more instructive to talk about sophistication of use – because even amongst those
older people who do use the internet, the nature and extent of that use varies very widely
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Email Banking Booking travel Social Networking Instant messaging Playing games
18-34
35-54
55+
Practical activities – done evenly by age group Social comms and ‘living online’ – weighted to younger
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2013-14
Barriers to digital inclusion
• According to Age Concern and Help the Aged (Introducing another World: older people and digital inclusion) the main barrier to the elderly with regards to digital inclusion appears to be a
lack of understanding and confidence with „how it works‟, whilst fears and anxieties were also expressed with regard to „doing something wrong‟ and security online.
• The report states that only a small minority can
be defined as „refuseniks‟, whilst for many, being „dismissive' "appears to be a way to justify their lack of confidence and this group is likely to be more open about trying the internet if they receive appropriate encouragement and support”.
• Many believe that it will be too hard, or that they are too old to pick up these new technologies, and it seems that the provision of the aforementioned encouragement and
support could significantly counter these issues.
‘Traditional’ media channels remain dominant
Weekly reach of media and communications activities across the day; Adults 65+
96%
84%
81%
71%
71%
61%
52%
44%
39%
33%
33%
28%
26%
25%
22%
22%
20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Live TV
Phone Calls
Live Radio
Newspapers
A Book (Printed or eBook)
Recorded TV
Text Messages
Other Websites or Apps
Magazines (Printed or Digital)
Other Activities
On-Demand/Catch-Up TV or Films (Free)
Games (Electronic Device)
Personal Music Collection (Physical
Format)
Other Online News (Not Newspaper Site)
Online Shopping or Ticketing Site/App
Comms Through a Social Networking Site
• Digital inclusion is hugely important
when analysing loneliness amongst
the elderly.
• Two fifths of all older people (about
3.9 million) say that the television is
their main company (Age UK, 2014),
and whilst a consensus has not been
reached on the efficacy of social
media in combating loneliness it is
hard to believe that it will have no
impact whatsoever, and as such it is
vital to understand its role.
• As those with higher digital literacy
age, bringing with them their
knowledge and experience of
technology, new opportunities will be
presented to facilitate better mental
and physical health through the use
of tech.Source: Ofcom Digital Day 2014
Phone calls are most important method
of interaction
Mean importance of each activity (0=not very important, 10=very important); Adults 65+
8.2
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.4
6.2
4.9
4.6
4.5
4.3
4
3.8
3.6
3.6
2.7
2.7
2.3
1.7
0 2 4 6 8 10
Phone Calls
Live TV
Books (Printed or eBook
Newspapers
Live Radio
Magazines
Text Messaging
Personal Music Collection (Physical …
Recorded TV
Online Shopping or Ticketing Site
Other Websites or Apps
Other Activities
Other Online News (Not on Newspaper …
On-Demand/Catch Up TV or Films
TV or Films on DVD, Blu-Ray, VHS
Sports News/Updates (Not on …
Comms Through a Social Networking Site• Despite the prevalence of television
and computers, communication by
telephone is shown to be the most
important piece of technology for
over 65s
• The importance placed on social
media remains very low; the mean
score of communication through
social media registers just under 2 out
of 10 with Email held to be far more
important to the over 65s.
Source: Ofcom Digital Day 2014
Weekly reach of devices
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Weekly reach of devices by age; Ofcom Digital Day 2014
All Adults aged 16+ 16-24 65+
Source: Ofcom Digital Day 2014
79% of over 65s state that they use a computer on a weekly basis, indicating that the
accessibility is there, even if the technology is unfamiliar. However, only 21% use a
smartphone that frequently, indicating the scale of the access issue
Desire for digital literacy
2.8
2.42.2 2.1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
If I could get help, I would like to
use a computer/internet
I'm too old to use the internet I don't understand
computers/internet
I don't know what use the internet
could be to me
From the following statements, please say to what extent you agree or disagree with them, where
1 is ‘disagree strongly’ and 5 is ‘agree strongly’ (mean score)
Source: Introducing another World: older people and digital inclusion
• Though the proliferation of computers and the use of the internet is not as high as that of TV and not
perceived to be as important as phone calls, in the majority of cases this is not the result of outright
refusal, but rather a lack of appropriate assistance, understanding or confidence.
• That the appetite for familiarity with these media exists is promising, and whilst a lack of digital literacy
amongst the elderly is a problem, it is one that many would like to solve, and one which may open
many doors thereafter.
Time Spent Per Day Per Activity
03:46:00
01:27:00
00:32:00
00:32:00
00:30:00
00:28:00
00:19:00
00:18:00
00:13:00
00:10:00
00:07:00
00:06:00
00:06:00
00:05:00
00:05:00
00:04:00
00:04:00
00:03:00
00:02:00
00:01:00
00:01:00
00:01:00
00:01:00
00:01:00
00:00:00
00:21:36 00:50:24 01:19:12 01:48:00 02:16:48 02:45:36 03:14:24 03:43:12 04:12:00
Live TV
Live Radio
Recorded TV
Newspapers
Books (Printed or eBook)
Phone Calls
Other Websites or Apps
Other Activities
Games (Electronic Device)
On-Demand/Catch-Up TV or Films (Free)
Comms Through a Social Networking Site
Personal Digital Music or Audio Collection
Personal Music Collection (Physical)
A Magazine/Article (Printed or Digital)
TV or Films (Physical Format)
Text Messaging
Other Online News (Not Newspaper Site)
Downloaded or Streamed TV or Films (Paid For)
Sports News/Updates (Not Newspaper Site)
On-Demand/'Listen Again' Radio or Podcasts
Online Shopping or Ticketing Site
Streamed Online Music
Video Calls
Instant Messaging
Average time spent on each activity per day; Adults 65+
Source: Ofcom Digital Day 2014
Mobile phone use is rising for the over 70s
97% 96%93%
91%
85%
69%
42%
98% 98% 97%93% 92%
80%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
2009-10
2012-13
Source: Understanding Society Wave 1/4
CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS
Summary of key findingsAgeing – a truly national trend
• The population of the UK is set to increase significantly over the next decade, with much of this growth driven by an ageing population and sustained increases in the number of people over 65 years old
• In total, the number of over 65s will reach 10.8m in 2020 (from 9.7m today)
• This growth will happen in every major region of each constituent nation of the UK – with no exceptions
• The number of local authorities where more than 25% of the population is aged over 65 will rise from 4 in 2012 to 83 in 2022
• This rise in the number (and proportionate population) of pensioners will have a number of impact – both on resources and service delivery for this cohort, and on the rest of society overall
Summary of key findingsPoverty, low incomes and retirement
• Overall, the number of older people living in relative or absolute poverty has not increased since the start of the
economic downturn – it remains stable at 15%
• However, the minimum income standard for pensioners has risen – for a single pensioner, from £132 a week to £182 – and
many of those on low incomes have trouble meeting
everyday expenditure
• Old-age poverty is also having impacts in the labour market –
with recent increases in the number of economically active
people. In total, the proportion of economically active over
65s has increased from 8.7% in Q3 2011 to 10.7% in Q1 2015
Summary of key findingsThe impacts of living longer
• While rising longevity is generally a positive trend, living longer has a number of impacts on physical and mental health
• The number of people with dementia stands at just over 800,000 – and even if incidence remains the same, the number of sufferers will rise due to the ageing population
• While the proportion reporting poor physical health is declining slightly, the number saying they are often troubled by pain is increasing
• Additionally, mental ill health and issues around subjective wellbeing are also prevalent – with life satisfaction and happiness declining sharply at age 80, and almost half of older women reporting feeling lonely at least some of the time
Conclusions
• Care needs are rapidly emerging as a significant area of need for the ageing population
– Needs exist both for those requiring care – dealing with everyday activities of basic living – and for those giving care
– While women are generally more likely to be care givers, amongst over 80s, men are more likely to care
• Higher dependency ratios will place huge demand on already strained public services, requiring greater support from the charitable sector
– This is a highly politicised issue – with political parties potentially more sensitive to the needs of an older demographic that is much more likely to vote
– Support for care delivered by VCS or NFP organisations is already high
Conclusions
• Delayed retirement – 14% of people working beyond the age of 65 are doing so because they cannot afford to stop
– Help is needed in alleviating the impacts of poverty for those whose pension may not meet minimum the requirement for a decent standard of living
– On the other side of this coin, another area of emerging need is those workers who are forced to retire earlier than they would like - either due to ill health or lack of opportunities
• The impact of dementia will be a significant area of need in the future– Even if incidence rates remain stable, the growth in the population of
people over the age of 65 will see the number affected more than double from c.800,000 in 2012 to 2.2m in 2051
– It is likely that incidence will increase as longevity continues to increase and diagnosis improves
Implications
• Demand for Big Lottery Fund money that goes to projects supporting older people or alleviating need that affects older people will increase even if incidence of need remains the same, due to population growth – elderly needs are likely to become a
dominant feature of applications for funding – meaning the Fund will be forced to prioritise urgent areas of need and schemes where its help can be most impactful
• The Fund will also need to respond to emerging trends and monitor even seemingly „benign‟ trends (such as pensioner poverty levels) –the rise in the number of economically active people over the age of 65, coupled with the future demands on health and
personal care means that pensioner poverty could again increase in the future
• The Big Lottery Fund should take advantage, wherever possible, to integrate technology into projects that support older people, as use of the internet and mobile communication devices can help to alleviate loneliness and reduce the impact of depression and lower
subjective wellbeing – as well as helping connect individuals with essential services
• Volunteering is a powerful way to build strong social ties (alleviating loneliness), improve personal wellbeing and contribute to the community. However, there is a significant gap between men and women in terms of tendency to volunteer in old age – the Fund should do more to encourage and facilitate older men to volunteer in their communities
Thank You
Trajectory Ltd
Enterprise House
1-2 Hatfields
London SE1 9PG
T 020 3567 5801
@TrajectoryTweet
Paul Flatters, Tom Johnson, Ruairi O’Shea
[email protected]@trajectorypartnership.com
