Foresight UK Land Use Systems Maps

Systems mapsLAND USE FUTURES PROJECT

Land Use Futures: Making the most of land In the 21st century

Systems maps

This report is intended for:

Policy makers and a wide range of professionals and researchers whose interests relate to all aspects of land use. The report focuses on the UK, but will also be relevant to the interests of many other countries.

This report should be cited as:

Foresight Land Use Futures (2010). Systems maps. The Government Office for Science, London.

.

The Government Office for Science would like to thank the firm ShiftN which led the systems work within the Foresight Project on Land Use Futures, and also the many experts and stakeholders from the UK who contributed to this work.

The Foresight Programme in the UK Government Office for Science is under the direction of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government. Foresight strengthens strategic policy-making in Government by embedding a futures approach.

Systems maps

1

Contents

1. Introduction 2

2. Catalogue of diagrams 2

3. Systems maps 3

Systems maps

2

1 Introduction

This catalogue provides the systems diagrams produced within the Foresight Project on Land Use Futures.

The aim of this Project has been to use the best available scientific and other evidence to take a broad look at:

●● The most important challenges and opportunities for land use in the UK over the next 50 years – particularly those that merit decisive action.

●● What can be done to use and manage land more sustainably and to unlock greater value for people and the economy – now and in the future.

The catalogue is not intended as a stand alone document, but rather should be used in conjunction with the Project Report, as a tool to aid interpretation of the report’s key themes and messages.

For greater detail on these diagrams, and the background behind them, a report has been produced by the firm ShiftN, who undertook the systems work for the Project. The contractual report expands on the systemic perspective taken in formulating these maps and provides detail behind several of the maps. ShiftN’s report can be ordered from the Foresight website: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/

Production of the systems maps

The production of these maps involved consultation with a range of leading experts involved with the Project. They are intended as visual representations of complex systemic interactions. They are not comprehensive in their coverage, and are subject to caveats in their design. Therefore, in the detail of the maps there is likely to be disagreement amongst some readers. However, these maps are not intended as definitive truths, but rather as valuable tools for understanding the complexities of aspects of the land system.

Use of the diagrams within the project

The systems diagrams deal with a range of issues affecting land use. Some have specific reference within the report, but it is hoped that all of the maps will help offer a clearer understanding of interactions of various components which influence land use in the UK.

Specifically, it is hoped that these diagrams will add value through:

●● Showing the ‘bigger picture’.

●● Integrating specialist knowledge.

●● Communicating complex information.

●● Stimulating stakeholder engagement.

2 Catalogue of diagrams

The following table lists the systems diagrams that are reproduced here, together with a brief description.

Page Systems map

3 Land systems framework – component parts of the current UK land systemA broad overview of the key elements of, and forces acting on, the land use system, incorporating a diverse range of drivers; from the economic to the environmental.

4 Valuation framework – overview This outlines the market forces, governance mechanisms and market failures that may influence land use allocation.

5 Valuation framework – key drivers Shows the particular impact of market dynamics on the land system and governance decisions.

6 Governance framework – overview This demonstrates the interaction between some of the governance influences particularly on developed land use in England.

7 Governance framework – key drivers Shows the specific influences on the planning system and governance of developed land in the UK.

8 Wellbeing framework – overview This helps to visualise the relationship between land use and citizens’ personal health and wellbeing.

9 Land system – influence diagram Provides a broad overview of the key elements of, and forces acting on, the land use system.

10 Land system – clustered influence diagram Demonstrates the broad areas of government responsibility for some of the key factors influencing UK land use.

11 Land system – clustered influence diagram by Government department Shows the range of English Government departments responsible for factors influencing land use.

12 Land system – influence and sustainability diagram Matches influences on UK land use with performance of DEFRA’s Sustainable Development Indicators in Your Pocket (2009).

http://www.foresight.gov.uk/

Systems maps

3

CommercialBusinesses

L and UseChange

Citizen UsersConsumers

ValuesBeliefsKnowledgeInformationPreferences

EcosystemsClimate Covers Uses

StockQualitySpatial Distribution

Geology

Topography

Altitude

Soil

Climate

Hydrology

Biodiversity

Broad-leaved mixed and yew woodland Coniferous woodland Boundaries & linear features Arable and horticulture Improved grassland Neutral grassland Calcareous grassland Acid grassland Bracken Dwarf shrub heath Fen, marsh and swamp Bog Standing open water & canals Rivers and streams Montane habitats Inland rock Built-up areas and gardens Supra-littoral rock Supra-littoral sediment Littoral rock Littoral sediment Inshore sublittoral sediment

PopulationMigrationDistributionAgeHousehold size

Global Trade

Global Ocean, Atmosphere & Climate System

NationalCivilFoodWaterEnergyEconomic

Self-su�ciencyResilienceResistance to shocks

SecuritySocietyTechnologyEconomyEnvironmentPolitical

Policy DriversGlobal Politics

Unused Land

Defence

Previously Developed

Industry and Business

Retail

Community Services

Residential

Utilities and Infrastructure

Transport

Recreation and Leisure

Minerals

Forestry

Agriculture and Fisheries

Multifunctionality Irreversibility

Trade-o�s

Economic Growth

Population Size

Consumption

Employment

ValuationAverage temperatureRainfall patternsFrequency/magnitude of extreme weather eventsSea level rise

Climate ChangeRegulationMitigationAdaptationSequestration

OilGasCoalNuclear

EnergyRenewables:Biofuel cropsWindSolarHydro - DamsWave/TideGeothermal

Professional & TradeOrganisations

Nongovernmental& Voluntary

Organisations

ValuesBeliefsKnowledgeInformationInformationInformationPreferencesPreferencesPreferences

Income

L and UseChange Decisions

Land Managers

Available optionsCost/Bene�tRisk assessmentSustainability

Decisions

Owners / DevelopersInvestors

Available optionsCost/Bene�tRisk assessmentSustainability

M arketForces

Demand

CommercialUsers

Engagement &Participation

MarketingAdvertisingMedia

Public perception

PoliticalBehaviours

BuyingBehaviours

WorkingPatterns

Monetarypolicy

Financialregulation

Science &technologyregulation

Science &technology

funding

Criminal-ization

Regulation

Taxes &Fees

EnvironmentalRegulation

ClimateChange

Regulation

Policy &Functional

Classi�cations

Pricecontrols

Funding

Subsidies

Civil Servants

Judicial

LegislatorsElected O�cials

Research &Education

Ability to get a clear picture of land use

LabourMarkets

HousingMarkets

Crossdisciplinary ResearchKnowledge gapsUnderstanding drivers of LU changeTypologies/CategoriesAbility to de�ne and represent land usesMeasurement – data gaps

Courts

Case Law

Sustainability

M easurementPlanning System

Demographics

Education & Advocacy

GovernmentGovernance

Economy

Sciences

Science & Technology, Knowledge, Methods, Processes

Increase e�ciency of useIncrease e�ciency of useIncrease supply

Increase demandthrough new use

Decrease demandthrough virutualization

Major Land Uses(NLUD Classi�cations)

Land Cover & Characteristics

Basic Land Resource

S U P P L Y D E M A N D

Society & CultureSociety & Culture

Prices

Demographics

Market valued

(excludable) goods

Non-market valued

(non-excludable) goods

Local PlanningAuthority

Finance &budget

allocation

Livable environmentMaterial wealthEmploymentHousingEducationSocial relations/cohesionMental & physical healthSecurityFreedom of choice & actionEquality

Wellbeing

UK Natural & Man-Made Environment

Regulating

Wildlife

Supporting

Air quality regulationClimate regulationWater regulationErosion regulationWater puri�cation and waste treatmentDisease regulationPest regulationPollinationNatural hazard regulation

Soil formationPhotosynthesisPrimary productionNutrient cyclingWater cycling

Cultural

Provisioning

SpaceLand for ______

FoodFibreFuelRaw materials Genetic resourcesBiochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticalsOrnamental resourcesFresh waterOther Provisioning

Recreation and ecotourismSocial relationsSense of placeLandscapeAesthetic InspirationCultural heritage Cultural diversitySpiritual and religiousEducation

Ecosystem Services

Boundaries& Physical Geography

Time

Scal

e

Location

TradePolicy

Domestic Supply

Foreign Supply

Land-basedgoods & services

Market

Social Value

Environmental Value

Economic Value

DemandSupply

Availablebudget

A Land System Framework

Foresight Land Use Futures

- the component parts of the current UK land system

Land system framework – componenet parts of the current UK land system

Systems maps

4

Valuation Framework – overview

PositiveBene�t

NegativeCost

Previously developed

Defence

Waste

Minerals

Utilities and infrastructure

Industry and business

Transport

Retail

Residential

Community services

Recreation and leisure

Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries

Energy production & generation

Water catchment and storage

Climate change adapt./mit.

Conservation

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses

PositiveBene�t

NegativeCost

Planning Application


Regional Plans

National Policy

Local DevelopmentPlan

Planning System


Social, Environmental& Political values

Consumer valuesBuying Behaviours

Political Behaviours

Citizen Users / Consumers

Wellbeing

Consumption

Business Involvement

Citizen Involvement

TradePolicy

RegulationRegulation

Criminal-ization

Monetarypolicy

MonetaryMonetary

Financialregulation

Criminal-ization

PropertyRightsRights

Copyrights& Patents& Patents

Standards Taxes &Fees

Taxes &Taxes &

VATtaxes

MonetaryGovernmentinitiatives

Taxexemptions

initiatives

TaxTax

Insurancelegislation

MonetaryMonetaryMonetary

regulation

GovernmentGovernment

Educationand other

public services

RegulationCopyrights& Patents& Patents

Standards

RegulationCopyrights Corporation

tax

Criminal-Property

Regulation

ization

CopyrightsCopyrightsRegulationCorporationCopyrights Corporation

Employmenttaxes

VATVAT

Infra-structurecharges

Criminal- FundingFunding

Subsidies

Employment

Fees

Cap and trade

Civil Servants

Education& Training

Marketing • Advertising • Media

Market Information

FundingFunding

Subsidies

Education & Advocacyization Funding

SubsidiesRegulation

Provisioning



exemptions

Finance &budget

allocation

Mortgageinterest

taxes

Propertytaxes

interesttaxes

Capitalgain taxes

public servicespublic services

taxes

Section 106Agreements

Mortgageinterest

Mortgageinterest

Mortgage


public servicespublic servicespublic servicespublic servicesAgreements

Mortgage

CommunityInfrastructure

Levy

General PermittedDevelopment Order

Public GoodsSocial GoodsMerit Goods

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsory

Easements &Rights of way

Designations

CompulsoryCompulsorypurchase

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsory

Designations

CompulsoryCompulsoryCompulsorypurchase

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsory

Titlements &Property

Rights

PropertyPropertytaxes

Easements &Rights of wayEasements &

Designations

PropertyProperty

Rights of wayRights of wayRights of wayEnvironmental

Regulation

RegulationRegulationRegulationtax

EnvironmentalRegulationRegulation

Pricecontrols

Criminal- Funding

RegulationRegulationRegulation

EnvironmentalEnvironmental Price

Regulation

Funding

Environmental Price

Subsidies

Key Drivers

Money

InformationPolitical/LegalIn�uence

L e g e n dIncome

GovernmentProvision

GovernmentProvision


Financialregulation

PropertyRights

CopyrightsMonetaryMonetary

Financialregulation

Science &technology

funding

In�uence or controlproduction, use,

or prices

Future valueIntrinsic valueEquity

Information

Policydecisions

Land Market

Buyer

DemandMarket

Market Price

Goods

Payment

SupplySu

pp

ly De

man

d

Non-Excludable

Excludable

Non-Excludable

Part

ial

Incl

usi

on

Part

ial

Incl

usi

on

Excludable

Demerit Goods

Publ

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oods

Com

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Free Goods

Externalities

Seller

Legislators

Disposableincome

Land quality / capability

In�ation

Interestrates

Socialdiscount rate

Base rate

Land Price

Land Rents

Planningpermission

Location:proximity & access to amenities

Information Decisions Decisions Information

MagnitudeIrreversibilityRisk

Political viabilityOrganisational feasibilityTechnical feasibilityFinancial feasibilityCon�icts & trade-o�sSocial • Public desires

Environmental • Sustainability

Economic • Business desires

Drive demand

Adjust supply

Production & Use Externalities and other Market Failures

Ability & willingness to pay

Bene�t

Cost

Technology

Financial Capital

Manufactured Capital

Natural Capital

Human & Social Capital

Social & Cultural

Government

Environment

EconomyEconomyEconomy

Non-Excludable

SupportingSoil & Soil formationPhotosynthesisPrimary productionNutrient cyclingWater cyclingHydrologyAir quality and climate

RegulatingAir quality regulationClimate regulationWater regulationErosion regulationFlood regulationWater puri�cationWaste treatmentNatural hazard regulationClimate regulationDisease regulationPest regulationPollination

ProvisioningHabitats of plants and animalsBiodiversity - Genetic resources EcologiesAccessibility - permeability of urban areasAnimal health and welfareBiosecurity

Non-Excludable

Social cohesionCultural diversityVibrant communitiesLocal employment and economyTraditional industrySense of placeRural characterCultural heritage Historic ArchaeologicalEducational/Learning

Aesthetic valueLandscapeCultural and built heritage

Spiritual and religiousTranquillityInspirationalTherapeutic

Tourism and ecotourismRecreationSport

Social & Cultural

Land use change

ResidentialResidentialResidentialResidentialLand-based goods & services

Fisheries

Energy production & generationPressure to change land use Buy or rent land or land-based goods/services

Cost/Bene�tFuture discountingAvailable optionsRisk assessmentSocial norms, traditionEthicsDemand estimation

Domest icsupply

Foreignsupply

Foreigncapita l

ProductionProduction

Business & Consumers

U s eU s e

Environmental Social Economic

FinancialMarkets

Infrastructure

Legislators

Availablebudget

Working patterns

Ecosystem ServicesFinance &

Information

Policydecisions

Marketing • Advertising • MediaMarketing • Advertising • MediaMarketing • Advertising • MediaMarketing • Advertising • MediaMarketing • Advertising • Media

Ability & willingness to payAbility & willingness to pay

Inequalities

Values

ExternalitiesExternalities Bene�t

Free-riding

Demerit GoodsMeasurement

of Externalities

Measurement ofMarket Failures

UnintendedConsequences

Negative

SystemicRisks

Land quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capability

Buy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/services

Rents

InformationInformationInformationInformation

InformationAsymmetries


TransactionCosts


Principal-agentproblems

Finance &Finance &

GovernmentFailure

Rent Seeking

Habitats of plants and animals

Non-ExcludableGoods

Educational/Learning

Non-ExcludableGoods

InformationInformationInformationInformationCognitive

Biases

Information

Buy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesCost/Bene�tCost/Bene�tCost/Bene�t


SupplyDecisionsDecisions

Market Power& Monopolies

Elements ofMarket Failure

Consumer Pressure

Irrational wantsStatus Quo BiasSatis�cingOvercon�denceIllusion of controlLoss AversionAnchoringAvailabilityRepresentativenessetc.

Short time horizon

Valuation FrameworkForesight Land Use Futures

copyright® 2008 shiftn cvba

Systems maps

5

Valuation Framework – key drivers

PositiveBene�t

NegativeCost


Defence

Waste

Minerals



Transport

Retail

Residential

Community services


Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries




Conservation

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses

PositiveBene�t

NegativeCost



Regional Plans

National Policy


Planning System


Social, Environmental& Political values




Wellbeing

Consumption


Citizen Involvement

TradePolicy

Regulation

Criminal-ization

Monetarypolicy

Financialregulation

Criminal-ization

PropertyRights

Copyrights& Patents


VATtaxes

Governmentinitiatives

Taxexemptions


Educationand other

public services

Corporationtax

Employmenttaxes


Funding

Subsidies

Employment

Cap and trade

Civil Servants

Education& Training

Marketing • Advertising • Media

Market Information


Regulation

Provisioning



Finance &budget

allocation

Mortgageinterest

taxes

Propertytaxes

Capitalgain taxes



Levy


Public GoodsSocial GoodsMerit Goods

Compulsorypurchase


Designations


Rights



Pricecontrols

Funding

Subsidies

Key Drivers

Money


L e g e n dIncome

GovernmentProvision

GovernmentProvision

Science &technology

funding


or prices


Information

Policydecisions

Land Market

Buyer

DemandMarket

Market Price

Goods

Payment

SupplySu

pp

ly De

man

d

Non-Excludable

Excludable

Non-Excludable

Excludable

Demerit Goods

Riv

alN

on

-Riv

al

Free Goods

Externalities

Seller

Legislators

Disposableincome

Land quality / capability

In�ation

Interestrates

Socialdiscount rate

Base rate

Land Price

Land Rents

Planningpermission

Location:proximity & access to amenities

Information Decisions Decisions Information


Political viabilityOrganisational feasibilityTechnical feasibilityFinancial feasibilityCon�icts & trade-o�sSocial • Public desires

Environmental • Sustainability


Drive demand

Adjust supply


Ability & willingness to pay

Bene�t

Cost

Technology

Financial Capital

Manufactured Capital

Natural Capital

Human & Social Capital




Social cohesionCultural diversityVibrant communitiesLocal employment and economyTraditional industrySense of placeRural characterCultural heritage Historic ArchaeologicalEducational/Learning




Social & Cultural

Land use change

Land-based goods & services

Pressure to change land use Buy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesCost/Bene�tFuture discountingAvailable optionsRisk assessmentSocial norms, traditionEthicsDemand estimation

Domest icsupply

Foreignsupply

Foreigncapita l

ProductionProduction

Business & Consumers

U s eU s e

Environmental Social Economic

FinancialMarkets

Infrastructure

Availablebudget

Working patterns

Ecosystem Services

Inequalities

ExternalitiesFree-riding

Measurementof Externalities


UnintendedConsequences

SystemicRisks

Rents


TransactionCosts


GovernmentFailure

Rent Seeking

Non-ExcludableGoods

Non-ExcludableGoods

CognitiveBiases




Consumer Pressure


Short time horizon


Defence

Waste

Minerals



Transport

Retail

Residential

Community services


Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries

PositiveBene�t

NegativeCost

Regional Plans

National Policy

Local Development

Planning SystemPlanning System

Social, Environmental& Political values& Political values


Political BehavioursPolitical Behaviours

Consumption

RegulationRegulation

Criminal-ization

Monetarypolicy

MonetaryMonetary

Financialregulation

Criminal-ization

PropertyRights

Copyrights& Patents& Patents


Taxes &Taxes &

taxesMonetary

exemptions

initiatives

TaxTax



regulation


Educationand other

public servicespublic servicespublic servicespublic services

RegulationCopyrights& Patents& Patents

Standards

RegulationCopyrights Corporation

tax

Criminal-Property

Regulation

ization

CopyrightsCopyrightsRegulationCorporationCopyrights Corporation

Employmenttaxes

VATVAT


Criminal- FundingFunding

Subsidies

Fees

Cap and trade

EducationEducationEducation& Training& Training& Training

FundingFunding

Subsidies

Education & Advocacyization Funding

SubsidiesRegulation

Local Development

TradePolicy

Cap and trade

Civil ServantsCivil ServantsCivil ServantsCivil ServantsCivil ServantsCivil Servants

ValuesBeliefsKnowledgeInformationKnowledgeInformationKnowledge ConsumptionEmployment


Market InformationMarket InformationMarket Information





Provisioning



exemptions

allocation

interestinteresttaxes

Capitalgain taxes

Capitalgain taxes

Capital

public servicespublic services

taxes

Section 106

Mortgageinterest

Mortgageinterest

Mortgage


public servicespublic servicespublic servicespublic servicesAgreements

Mortgage


Levy

General PermittedGeneral PermittedDevelopment OrderDevelopment OrderDevelopment Order

Public GoodsSocial GoodsSocial GoodsSocial GoodsMerit GoodsMerit GoodsMerit Goods


Compulsorypurchase

Compulsory


Designations


Compulsorypurchase

Compulsory

Designations

CompulsoryCompulsoryCompulsorypurchase

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsory


RightsProperty

RightsProperty

PropertyPropertytaxes

Easements &Rights of wayEasements &

Designations

PropertyProperty

Rights of wayRights of wayRights of wayEnvironmental

Regulation

RegulationRegulationRegulationtax

EnvironmentalRegulationRegulation controls

Criminal- Funding

RegulationRegulationRegulation

EnvironmentalEnvironmental Price

Regulation

Funding

Environmental Price

Subsidies

Key Drivers

Money


L e g e n dIncome

GovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernmentProvisionProvisionProvisionProvisionProvision


Financialregulation

PropertyRights

CopyrightsMonetaryMonetary

Financialregulation

Science &technology

fundingtechnology

fundingtechnology


or pricesor prices

Land Market

BuyerBuyer

DemandDemandSupplySupplySu

pp

ly De

man

dD

em

and

Excludable

Part

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Incl

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Excludable

Demerit Goods

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Free GoodsFree GoodsFree GoodsFree GoodsFree GoodsFree GoodsFree GoodsFree GoodsFree Goods

Externalities

Disposableincome

Land quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capability

In�ationIn�ation

InterestInterestratesrates

SocialSocialSocialSocialSocialSocialdiscount ratediscount ratediscount ratediscount ratediscount ratediscount ratediscount ratediscount rate

Base rateBase rateBase rateBase rateBase rateBase rate

Land Price

Land Rents

PlanningPlanningPlanningpermissionpermissionpermission

Planningpermission

PlanningPlanningpermission

PlanningPlanningpermission

Planning

Location:Location:Location:proximity & access to amenitiesproximity & access to amenitiesproximity & access to amenities

Information DecisionsDecisionsDecisionsDecisions

MagnitudeOrganisational feasibility

Social • Public desires

Environmental • SustainabilityEnvironmental • Sustainability


Drive demandDrive demand

Adjust supplyAdjust supply


Ability & willingness to payAbility & willingness to payAbility & willingness to pay

Bene�tBene�t

CostCost

TechnologyTechnology

Financial CapitalFinancial CapitalFinancial CapitalFinancial CapitalFinancial Capital

Manufactured CapitalManufactured CapitalManufactured CapitalManufactured CapitalManufactured Capital

Natural CapitalNatural CapitalNatural CapitalNatural CapitalNatural Capital

Human & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social Capital

Social & Cultural

Government

Environment

EconomyEconomyEconomy

SupportingSoil & Soil formation

Regulating

Land use change

ResidentialLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & services

ResidentialLand-based goods & services

ResidentialResidentialLand-based goods & services

ResidentialLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & services

ResidentialLand-based goods & services

ResidentialResidentialLand-based goods & services

ResidentialLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & servicesLand-based goods & services

Fisheries

Energy production & generationPressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land use

Energy production & generationPressure to change land use

Energy production & generationPressure to change land usePressure to change land use Buy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/services

Cost/Bene�tCost/Bene�tCost/Bene�tFuture discountingFuture discountingFuture discountingAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsRisk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessmentSocial norms, traditionSocial norms, traditionSocial norms, traditionSocial norms, traditionSocial norms, traditionEthicsDemand estimationDemand estimationDemand estimation

Foreignsupplysupplysupply

ForeignForeignForeignForeigncapita lcapita lcapita l

Business & ConsumersConsumersConsumersConsumersConsumersConsumersConsumersConsumers

U s eU s eU s eU s eU s eU s eU s eU s e

FinancialMarkets

InfrastructureInfrastructureInfrastructure

Availablebudget

Working patternsWorking patternsWorking patternsWorking patternsWorking patterns

Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Services


Ability & willingness to payAbility & willingness to payAbility & willingness to pay

Inequalities

Values

ExternalitiesExternalities Bene�t

Free-riding

Demerit Goods

ConsequencesConsequences

Land quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capabilityLand quality / capability

Buy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/services

Rents

InformationInformationInformationInformation

InformationAsymmetriesAsymmetries


TransactionCosts



Government

Rent Seeking

InformationInformationInformationInformationCognitive

Biases

Information

Buy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesBuy or rent land or land-based goods/servicesCost/Bene�tCost/Bene�tCost/Bene�t

InformationAsymmetriesAsymmetries


Consumer Pressure


Short time horizonShort time horizonEnergy production & generation



Conservation

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses


Citizen Involvement

Provisioning

Land for ______

Raw materials Genetic resourcesBiochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticalsOrnamental resourcesFresh waterOther Provisioning

Part

ial

Part

ial

Incl

usi

on

Excludable

Fisheries

Energy production & generationPressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land use

Energy production & generationPressure to change land use

Energy production & generationPressure to change land usePressure to change land usePressure to change land use

GovernmentInterventions

Finance &budget

allocation


Legislators


Political viabilityOrganisational feasibilityTechnical feasibilityFinancial feasibilityCon�icts & trade-o�s


Legislators

Finance &

Information

Policydecisions

UnintendedConsequencesConsequences

Finance &Finance &

GovernmentFailure

allocation

MagnitudeIrreversibility Organisational feasibility


ConsequencesGovernment

allocation

MagnitudeOrganisational feasibility


ConsequencesConsequencesGovernment

Demerit GoodsMeasurement

of Externalities

Representativeness

Demerit Goods

Representativeness

Demerit Goods

Representativeness



Production & Use Externalities and other Market FailuresProduction & Use Externalities and other Market Failures

Local Planning

Plan



Plan

Land use changeLand use change

Local DevelopmentLocal DevelopmentLocal Development

Land use change

Local Development

Land use change

Non-Excludable

SupportingSoil & Soil formation





Accessibility - permeability of urban areas

Non-ExcludableGoods

Non-Excludable

Regulating

Ecosystem Services

Regulating

Ecosystem Services

SupportingSoil & Soil formationSupportingSoil & Soil formation

Non-ExcludableNon-Excludable

Social cohesionCultural diversityVibrant communitiesLocal employment and economyTraditional industrySense of place


Vibrant communitiesLocal employment and economyTraditional industrySense of placeRural characterCultural heritage Historic ArchaeologicalEducational/Learning




Social & Cultural

Educational/Learning

Non-ExcludableGoods

ExcludableExcludable

PositiveBene�t Cost


Employment

Income


Social norms, traditionSocial norms, traditionSocial norms, tradition

Demand estimationDemand estimationDemand estimation

Environmental SocialSocialSocial Economic


Negative

SystemicRisks

Social norms, traditionSocial norms, tradition


Social norms, traditionSocial norms, traditionSocial norms, tradition


Employment


Income



Employment


Income



Supply

SellerSellerSeller

InformationInformationInformation



Human & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social CapitalHuman & Social Capital

Future discountingAvailable options

Domest icsupplysupplyProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProductionProduction

Information SupplyDecisionsDecisions


SupplyInformation

Financial Capital




Cost/Bene�tFuture discountingAvailable options

Information SupplyInformation

Financial CapitalFinancial CapitalFinancial Capital




Cost/Bene�tFuture discountingAvailable options

Information DemandMarket

Market Price

GoodsGoods

PaymentPaymentPayment

Supply DemandSupply

Transaction

DemandSupply

Transaction

Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Services

Non-Excludable


Habitats of plants and animalsBiodiversity - Genetic resources

Accessibility - permeability of urban areas


Non-Excludable

Excludable


Social cohesionCultural diversityVibrant communitiesLocal employment and economyTraditional industrySense of placeRural characterCultural heritage

Excludable

EcosystemServices

Social & CulturalServices

The PlanningSystem

MarketDynamics

Special Interests vs. Public Interests

EnvironmentalExternalities

Social & CulturalExternalities

EconomicExternalities

MeasuringMarket

Ine�ciencies

Social

Environmental

Economic

InformationPreferencesPreferences


Consumer valuesBuying BehavioursBuying Behaviours



Wellbeing


Information








Working patternsWorking patternsWorking patternsWorking patterns

CB

A

Valuation FrameworkForesight Land Use Futures


Systems maps

6

Governance framework – overview

Decisions

Commercial Users

Secondary Demand

Decisions

Owners, Developers and Land Managers

Available optionsCost/Bene�tRisk assessment(uncertainty)

Land UseChange

MarketForces

Global Politics

T h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e m

E n v i r o n m e n t a l

Decisions

ElectedO�cials

Decisions

Elected O�cials

Civil Servants

Decisions

ElectedO�cials

Society& Culture

Economic Growth



Security

European Regional Dev. & Cohesion Policy

Structural Funds

European Conventionon Human Rights

Soils Directive

Natura 2000Network

EU Emission TradingScheme

GHG Directive

Climate adaptation &mitigation strategy

Global Climate ChangeAgreement

United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change

Planning ActsNational Policy

Statements

Designations

National ParksSites of Special Scienti�c InterestAreas of Outstanding Natural BeautyGreen BeltHistoric & Archaeological

Minerals PolicyStatements

Regional SustainabilityFrameworks

Regional WasteStrategy

Regional FloodRisk Appraisal

Strategic EnvironmentalAssessment

Good Practice Guides Circulars

Building Regulations White Papers

Sustainable Community Strategy Local Development

Framework

MaterialConsiderations


Design Statement

Habitats Directive

Birds Directive

Water FrameworkDirective

Land�ll Directive

Urban WastewaterTreatment Directive

Nitrates DirectiveEuropean LandscapeConvention


Environmental ImpactAssessment

HM Treasury

Parliament

European Union

Multi-Area Agreements

Local Area Agreements

Local StrategicPartnership


Infrastructure Planning Commission

AuditCommission

StatutoryUndertakers

Parish Councils

PlanningInspectorate

Courts

Communities andLocal Government

Approved

Denied

Planning PolicyGuidance Notes (PPG)

Planning PolicyStatements (PPS)

Parliamentary Answersand Statements

EU Agriculture andRural Development PolicyEnvironmentFood & Energy market managementRural Development

EnvironmentalLegislation

HeritageAmenity/public accessFertilisers and pesticidesHandling and recycling of wastesLandscapesBiodiversityWaterSoils

Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP)

Yorkshire and the HumberNorth East North West East MidlandsWest Midlands EastGreater LondonSouth East EnglandSouth West England

Regions

Devolved AdministrationsDevolved Administrations

LocalLocalLocalLocalLocalLocalLocalLocal

GlobalGlobalGlobalGlobalGlobal

Policy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy Drivers

EuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEuropeEurope

UK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK National

EnglandEnglandEnglandEnglandEnglandEnglandEnglandEnglandEnglandEngland

Sub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-National

421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough or District Council or a unitary authority

Consumption

PopulationGrowth

Primary Demand

Economy



Climate Change

RegulationMitigationAdaptationSequestration

Local Authorities

Police

Health Services

CommunityOrganisations

OilGasCoalNuclear

EnergyRenewables:

Biofuel cropsWindSolarHydro - DamsWave/Tide/CurrentGeothermal

defra ForestryCommission

EnvironmentAgency

dcms

Universities

Homes and Communities

AgencyNaturalEngland

Departmentfor Transport

UK Climate Change Programme

DBIS

Government

Investment

GovernmentInvestment

PricesPrices

Spending

FinancingFinancing Decisions



Local supplementalplanning documents


DepartureApplications Call-ins

IntegratedStrategies

English RegionsNetwork

Leaders Forum

Government O�cesfor the

English Regions

RegionalDevelopment

Agencies

Appeal

Compulsorypurchase

order

UK SustainableDevelopment Strategy

Relative power ofdi�erent stakeholders

Di�erent prioritiesbetween stakeholders

‘Permissionless’ Land Use Change

‘Permissioned’ Land Use Change

Denied ordelayed change

Food, health & bio-security policy

Availablebudget

Public Consultation

FoodPrices

EnergyPrices

TransportPrices

LandPrices

Planning Skills

OrganisationalE�ectiveness

Development ControlPlanning Applications

PoliticalInvolvement

PublicInvolvement

Statements ofStatements ofStatements ofStatements ofCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity Involvement

Pricecontrols

Cap and trade

Funding

Subsidies

Monetarypolicy

Cost & availabilityof Capital

In�ation

PropertyTaxes




Levy

Taxes &Fees

Localrevenue

Directspending

Localbudget


Defence

Waste

Minerals



Transport

Retail

Residential

Community services


Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries




Conservation

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses


Organisations


Regulations

Land OwnersLand Owners& Managers& Managers

See the Valuation Modelfor a more complete view of the foreces that in�uence land use change outside of the planning system

ProfessionalPlanners

Land Use ScienceSpatial PlanningArchitectureLand ManagementPlanning

AdvisoryService

CABE

DeliveryAgencies

DevelopmentInitiative Agencies

Urban Development CorporationsSimpli�ed Planning zonesBusiness Improvement DistrictsLocal Strategic PartnershipsSustainable Communities / EcotownsLe

gal

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Missing informationNeighbour objections

NIMBY’ism

Taxes


P l a n M a k i n g


Demand

Percentages?

Governance Framework


Key Drivers

MoneyPolitical/LegalIn�uence

L e g e n d

Formal planningdocuments

Organisations


Systems maps

7

Decisions

Commercial Users

Secondary Demand

Decisions

Owners, Developers and Land Managers

Available optionsCost/Bene�tRisk assessment(uncertainty)

Land UseChange

MarketForces

Global Politics

T h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e m


Decisions

ElectedO�cials

Decisions

Elected O�cials

Civil Servants

Decisions

ElectedO�cials

Economic Growth



Security


Structural Funds


Soils Directive

Natura 2000Network

EU Emission TradingScheme

GHG Directive




Planning ActsNational Policy

Statements

Designations









Sustainable Community Strategy Local Development

Framework



Design Statement

Habitats Directive

Birds Directive


Land�ll Directive





HM Treasury

Parliament

European Union






AuditCommission


Parish Councils

PlanningInspectorate

Courts


Approved

Denied




EU Agriculture andRural Development PolicyEnvironmentFood & Energy market managementRural Development

EnvironmentalLegislation

HeritageAmenity/public accessFertilisers and pesticidesHandling and recycling of wastesLandscapesBiodiversityWaterSoils


Yorkshire and the HumberNorth East North West East MidlandsWest Midlands EastGreater LondonSouth East EnglandSouth West England

Regions

421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough or District Council or a unitary authority

Consumption

PopulationGrowth

Primary Demand



Climate Change

RegulationMitigationAdaptationSequestration

Local Authorities

Police

Health Services

CommunityOrganisations

OilGasCoalNuclear

EnergyRenewables:

Biofuel cropsWindSolarHydro - DamsWave/Tide/CurrentGeothermal

defra ForestryCommission

EnvironmentAgency

dcms

Universities

Homes and Communities

AgencyNaturalEngland



DBIS

Government

Investment


Decisions








Leaders Forum


English Regions

RegionalDevelopment

Agencies

Appeal

Compulsorypurchase

order







Food, health & bio-security policy

Availablebudget

Public Consultation

FoodPrices

EnergyPrices

TransportPrices

LandPrices

Planning Skills

OrganisationalE�ectiveness

Development ControlPlanning Applications


PublicInvolvement

Pricecontrols

Cap and trade

Funding

Subsidies

Monetarypolicy

Cost & availabilityof Capital

In�ation

PropertyTaxes




Levy

Taxes &Fees

Localrevenue

Directspending

Localbudget


Defence

Waste

Minerals



Transport

Retail

Residential

Community services


Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries




Conservation

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses


Organisations


Regulations


ProfessionalPlanners

Land Use ScienceSpatial PlanningArchitectureLand ManagementPlanning

AdvisoryService

CABE

DeliveryAgencies

Local Strategic PartnershipsSustainable Communities / Ecotowns


NIMBY’ism


P l a n M a k i n g


Demand

Percentages?

and Land Managers

Land UseLand UseChangeChangeChangeChange

Global Politics

T h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e mT h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e m

Decisions

ElectedO�cialsO�cials

Decisions

Elected O�cialsElected O�cials

Civil ServantsCivil Servants

Decisions

ElectedO�cialsO�cials

Society& Culture

Economic Growth

NationalCivilCivilFoodWaterEnergyEconomic

Self-su�ciencyResilienceResilienceResistance to shocks

Security


Structural Funds


Soils Directive

Planning Acts





Sustainable Community Strategy

MaterialMaterialMaterialMaterialConsiderationsConsiderationsConsiderationsConsiderations


HM Treasury

Parliament

European Union




AuditCommission


PlanningInspectorateInspectorate

CourtsParliamentary Answers

and Statements

EU Agriculture andEU Agriculture andRural Development PolicyRural Development PolicyRural Development PolicyEnvironmentFood & Energy market managementRural Development

EnvironmentalEnvironmentalLegislationLegislation

HeritageAmenity/public accessAmenity/public accessAmenity/public accessFertilisers and pesticidesHandling and recycling of wastesLandscapesBiodiversityWaterSoils


Policy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy DriversPolicy Drivers

Economy

Professional & TradeProfessional & TradeOrganisationsOrganisations

Climate Change

RegulationMitigationMitigationMitigationAdaptationSequestration

Local Authorities

Police

Health Services

CommunityCommunityOrganisationsOrganisationsOrganisations

OilGasGasCoalNuclear

EnergyRenewables:

Biofuel cropsBiofuel cropsBiofuel cropsWindSolarHydro - DamsHydro - DamsWave/Tide/CurrentWave/Tide/CurrentGeothermal

Communities


UK Climate Change ProgrammeGovernment

Government

Investment

Investment

Investment




Leaders Forum


English RegionsEnglish Regions

DevelopmentAgenciesAgencies

DevelopmentAgencies

Development






Food, health & bio-security policy& bio-security policy

Availablebudget

Public ConsultationPublic ConsultationPublic Consultation

Planning Skills

OrganisationalOrganisationalE�ectivenessE�ectiveness

Statements ofStatements ofStatements ofCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity Involvement

Pricecontrols

Cap and trade

Funding

Subsidies

Monetarypolicy

Cost & availabilityof Capitalof Capitalof Capital

availabilityof Capital

availability

In�ationIn�ationIn�ation

PropertyTaxes



CommunityInfrastructureCommunity

InfrastructureCommunity

Levy

Taxes &Fees

LocalLocalrevenuerevenue

Directspending

Localbudget



Transport

Retail

Residential

Community services


Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries




Conservation

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses


OrganisationsOrganisations

General PermittedDevelopment OrderDevelopment Order

Land OwnersLand Owners& Managers& Managers

See the Valuation ModelSee the Valuation ModelSee the Valuation ModelSee the Valuation Modelfor a more complete view of the foreces for a more complete view of the foreces for a more complete view of the foreces for a more complete view of the foreces that in�uence land use change outside that in�uence land use change outside that in�uence land use change outside that in�uence land use change outside of the planning systemof the planning systemof the planning systemof the planning systemof the planning system

ProfessionalPlannersPlanners

Land Use ScienceLand Use ScienceLand Use ScienceLand Use ScienceLand Use ScienceLand Use ScienceSpatial PlanningSpatial PlanningSpatial PlanningSpatial PlanningArchitectureArchitectureArchitectureArchitectureLand ManagementLand ManagementLand ManagementLand ManagementLand ManagementLand ManagementPlanningPlanning

AdvisoryPlanningAdvisoryPlanning

ServiceAdvisoryService

Advisory

CABE

Lega

l

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Project

s

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Sustainability

Neighbour objectionsNIMBY’ism


See the Valuation Modelfor a more complete view of the foreces for a more complete view of the foreces that in�uence land use change outside of the planning system

Percentages?Percentages?Percentages?

Assessment

Sustainable Community

LocalLocalLocalLocalLocalLocal 421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough 421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough or District Council or a unitary authorityor District Council or a unitary authority


Defence

Waste

Minerals


Strategic Environmental

Yorkshire and the HumberYorkshire and the HumberNorth East North East North West North West East MidlandsEast MidlandsWest Midlands West Midlands EastGreater LondonGreater LondonSouth East EnglandSouth East EnglandSouth West EnglandSouth West England

RegionsRegions

Sub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-NationalSub-National

Designations

National Parks

Devolved Administrations

UK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK NationalUK National

Convention


European Landscape

Local DevelopmentFramework



Design Statement


Approved

DeniedDenied



Appeal

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsorypurchase

Compulsory

orderpurchase

orderpurchase


Development ControlDevelopment ControlDevelopment ControlDevelopment ControlDevelopment ControlDevelopment ControlDevelopment ControlDevelopment ControlPlanning ApplicationsPlanning ApplicationsPlanning ApplicationsPlanning ApplicationsPlanning ApplicationsPlanning ApplicationsPlanning ApplicationsPlanning Applications

Statements ofStatements ofCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity InvolvementCommunity Involvement



Statements ofCommunity InvolvementCommunity Involvement



Statements ofCommunity InvolvementCommunity Involvement

T h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e mT h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e m

National PolicyStatements




Parliament





Universities

Homes and Homes and Homes and Homes and Communities

AgencyAgencyAgencyAgency



DBIS


Government O�ces

RegionalDevelopment

RegionalDevelopment

Regional

AgenciesDevelopment

AgenciesDevelopment

T h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e mT h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e mParliament


Homes and Homes and Homes and Homes and Communities



Government O�ces


DevelopmentAgencies

Development

T h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e mT h e P l a n n i n g S y s t e mParliament


Parliamentary Answers

Communities



Government O�ces


DevelopmentAgencies

Development



Land�ll Directive


Soils

ForestryCommission

dcms

Water FrameworkDesignations

Devolved AdministrationsDevolved Administrations defraEnvironmentAgency

NaturalEngland


Natura 2000Network


Habitats Directive

Birds Directive




European Landscape Urban WastewaterTreatment Directive

Soils

Water Framework


Soils


Water FrameworkDesignations


Designations


UK NationalUK National

Convention


Convention


European LandscapeEuropean LandscapeEU Emission Trading

Scheme

GHG Directive




Water Framework


Wave/Tide/CurrentGeothermal




Water Framework

Land�ll Directive

Water Framework


SequestrationHydro - DamsWave/Tide/CurrentGeothermal


SequestrationHydro - DamsWave/Tide/CurrentGeothermal

UK Climate Change ProgrammeUK Climate Change ProgrammeUK Climate Change Programme

Water Framework

Land�ll Directive

UK Climate Change ProgrammeUK Climate Change Programme


between stakeholdersRegulations

Decisions

Commercial UsersCommercial UsersCommercial UsersCommercial Users

Secondary DemandSecondary Demand

Decisions

Owners, DevelopersOwners, DevelopersOwners, DevelopersOwners, Developers and Land Managers and Land Managers and Land Managers and Land Managers

Available optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsAvailable optionsCost/Bene�tCost/Bene�tCost/Bene�tRisk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessmentRisk assessment(uncertainty)(uncertainty)(uncertainty)(uncertainty)

MarketForces


Professional & TradeProfessional & TradeOrganisationsOrganisations

Land Owners& Managers

O�cials


between stakeholders

and Land Managers

Market

Professional & TradeOrganisationsOrganisations


O�cials


between stakeholders

and Land Managers

Land Use

Professional & TradeOrganisationsOrganisations




Departure Call-ins

Leaders Forum


English RegionsEnglish RegionsDeliveryAgenciesAgencies

Local Strategic PartnershipsLocal Strategic PartnershipsLocal Strategic PartnershipsLocal Strategic PartnershipsLocal Strategic PartnershipsSustainable Communities / EcotownsSustainable Communities / Ecotowns

P l a n M a k i n g


Departure Call-ins

Leaders Forum





Leaders Forum



Society& Culture

Economic Growth Consumption

PopulationPopulationGrowthGrowth

Primary Demand

PricesPrices

Spending

FinancingFinancing Decisions

Citizen UsersCitizen UsersCitizen UsersCitizen UsersConsumersConsumers

ValuesValuesBeliefsBeliefsKnowledgeKnowledgeKnowledgeInformationInformationPreferencesPreferencesPreferences

FoodFoodFoodPricesPricesPrices

TransportTransportTransportPricesPricesPrices

LandLandLandPricesPricesPrices


TaxesDemandDemandDemandDemandDemandDemandDemand

Society& Culture

Economic Growth

Society& Culture

Economic Growth

1Environmental

Regulation

2Planning Policy

5

Businesses &Land Owners/Managers4

DeliveryAgencies

Sub-NationalSub-NationalSub-National

8Levels of

Governance

6The Public

7Climate Change

3Local Planning

Public ConsultationPublic ConsultationPublic Consultation

di�erent stakeholdersdi�erent stakeholdersdi�erent stakeholdersdi�erent stakeholders

EnergyEnergyEnergyPricesPricesPrices

European Union

Planning Acts

HM Treasury

Parliamentary Answers


HM TreasuryHM Treasury


HM TreasuryHM Treasury

High-LevelStrategic Planning

Commission

Parish Councils

OrganisationsOrganisationsOrganisations

PublicInvolvementInvolvement


NIMBY’ismNIMBY’ism

Parish Councils

Public

CommissionOrganisationsOrganisationsOrganisations

Public Consultation Neighbour objectionsNIMBY’ismNIMBY’ism

ParticipatoryPlanning

Governance Framework


Key Drivers

MoneyPolitical/LegalIn�uence

L e g e n d

Formal planningdocuments

Organisations


Governance framework – key drivers

Systems maps

8

Monetarypolicy

Financialregulation

Criminal-ization

Regulation

Taxes &Fees

Pricecontrols

Funding

SubsidiesCivil ServantsLegislators

Elected O�cials


Government

Planning System


Finance &budget

allocation

TradePolicy

Availablebudget

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Sense of control over one’s life

Individual

IndividualDierencesCommunity

Group

Nation

Global

Positive Social Relationships

Social Support

Mobility, Access, Transport

Communication

Changing needs across the life courseTension between individual

and collective good Dierences between groups, communities, locations etc.

Evolution of social norms

Community Involvement

Meaningful Productive Work

Work-Life Balance

Free time

Decent HousingHealthy DietExerciseSu�cient SleepAvoiding Substance Abuse

Environmental Sustainability

Mental & physical health care

SubjectiveWellbeing

CulturalDierences

Friends

(Early) Childhood Development Maternal health care and support

Education

Quality of Life(Wellbeing)

Policy

S u b j e c t i v e O b j e c t i v e

RelativeImportance

Human Needs

Land Use Contributions

Ecosystem Services

Freedom of choice & actionEmergency services

Material wealth

Livable environment

InformationMedia & Advertising

Education

Sciences of Wellbeing

Many needs reinforce each other but some are in tension

e.g. Freedom and Security

Reproduction

Security

Aection

Understanding

Participation

Leisure

Spirituality

Creativity

Identity

Freedom

Equity / Fairness

Subsistence /Mental & Physical Health

Determinantsof Wellbeing

Family Relationships

Financial Situation

Philosophy of LifeEmotional Intelligence

Personal ValuesNon-materialism

Better Metricsof Wellbeing

Input to Policy Formation

Policy Levers

Unused Land

Defence

Previously Developed

Industry and Business

Retail

Community Services

Residential

Utilities and Infrastructure

Transport

Recreation and Leisure

Minerals

Forestry

Agriculture and Fisheries

Major Land Uses

(NLUD Classi�cations)

Cultural Aesthetic

Educational

Recreational

...

...

...

Spiritual

Regulating Climate regulation

Disease regulation

Water puri�cation

Flood regulation

Provisioning

Wood and Fibre

Food

Freshwater

Fuel

...

Supporting Nutrient cycling

Primary production

Soil formation

Wellbeing FrameworkForesight project on Land Use Futures


Wellbeing framework – overview

Systems maps

9

Exogenous and historical

GHG emissions

Exogenousfactors

Consumer durables in household possession

Housing pricesPopulation

Demand forhousing

Demand for living space

Number of dual-earner

families

Household debt

Number of Households

Human health and wellbeing

Access tocredit

Car ownership

Congestion

Economic growth-GDP

Size of households

Propertytax

Housingwealth

Fossil fuel price

Inboundtourism

Globalisa-tion

Global mobility of

people

Birth rate

Lifeexpectancy

Rural Land price

Commutingdistance

Car (& truck) usage

Commutingtime

Physicalinactivity

Noxious/GHG

Emissions

Populationdensity

Social cohesion

E�ectivedensity

Injuries

Farmer access to alternative

revenues

Employ-ment

Disposableincome

Spread of disease

Demand for energy

Access to services that enhance the quality of life

Extent of mixed-use

development

Extent of cross-

commuting

Agglomera-tion

economies

Localisationeconomies

Urbanisa-tion

economies

Access to public

transport Extent of motorway network

Demand for renewable

energy

Demand for UK agricultural

land

Demand for coal

Urbangrowth

Amount of land in

private trusts

Demand for bio-energy

Demand for wind energy

Spatial separation

of functions

Sub-urbanisation

Speed of travel

Distance between jobs and housing

Local government

revenue

Size of dwellings

Perception of overcrowding

E�ective-ness of land

mgt skills

Knowledge intensity of economic

activity

Fluidity of organisational

structures

Fluidity and leanness of

logistical chains

Stability of employment

Strength of local

economy

Demand for tourism and recreation

Locational mobility of

workers

Home working

Fuel costs

Investment in housing

Investment in infrastructure

Demand for freight

transport

Competitive pressures

Capacity to attract key

workers

Excise duties

Demand for minerals

extraction sites

Active transport (walking, cycling)

Spatial separation

of minorities

Agricultural commodity

prices

Competitive pressure on

UK agriculture


products

Viability of farming business

Viability of rural

communities

Ruralemployment

Speed of rural land

use change

Economies of scale in agriculture

Capital intensity of

agribusiness

UK agricultural

intensi�cation

Use of chemical

inputs

Intensity of ploughing

Stockingdensity

GHGemissions

from cropland

GHGemissions

from livestock

Conversion of agricultural to

non-agricultural land

Sequestra-tion of

organic C

GHG removal from

atmosphere

Forest surface area

Integrity of peatland

Complexity of landholding

arrangements

Waterquality

Soilquantity

Soilquality

Airquality

Wateravailability

Quality and quantity of

biotic stocks


abiotic stocks

Capacity of land to deliver

ecosystem services

Environ-mental

Equality

Resilience of social-

ecological systems

Quantity and quality of nature

reserves and protected areas

Conservation status of specialist species

of conservation concern

Conservation status of generalist species


Conservation status of wider environmental

species

E�ectiveness of species recovery

programs

E�ectiveness of wider land

management for wildlife

Seasonal water

shortages

Changes in seasonal events

Growing season

Demand for available

land

Impact ofclimatechange

Groundwater pollutant

concentration

Surface water pollutant

concentration

Urban/rural groundwater

recharge

Agricultural water use

Flooding

Coastalerosion

Sea level rise PrecipitationFrequency

and height of storm surges

Frequency of extreme

rainfall events

Overland water runo�

Average UK temperature

Industrial and household

GHG emissions

Demand for commercial

space

Consumption

MaterialsConsumption

Retirement age

Company car subsidy

Housingsupply

Housingquality

Land System In�uence DiagramForesight project on Land Use Futures

Copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba

Land system – infl uence diagram

Systems maps

10


GHG emissions

Exogenousfactors



Demand forhousing



families

Household debt



Access tocredit

Car ownership

Congestion

Economic growth-GDP

Size of households

Propertytax

Housingwealth

Fossil fuel price

Inboundtourism

Globalisa-tion

Global mobility of

people

Birth rate

Lifeexpectancy

Rural Land price

Commutingdistance

Car (& truck) usage

Commutingtime

Physicalinactivity

Noxious/GHG

Emissions

Populationdensity

Social cohesion

E�ectivedensity

Injuries


revenues

Employ-ment

Disposableincome

Spread of disease

Demand for energy


Extent of mixed-use

development

Extent of cross-

commuting

Agglomera-tion

economies


Urbanisa-tion

economies

Access to public



energy


land

Demand for coal

Urbangrowth

Amount of land in

private trusts



Spatial separation

of functions

Sub-urbanisation

Speed of travel


Local government

revenue

Size of dwellings



mgt skills


activity


structures


logistical chains


Strength of local

economy



workers

Home working

Fuel costs



Demand for freight

transport



workers

Excise duties

Demand for minerals

extraction sites


Spatial separation

of minorities


prices


UK agriculture


products


Viability of rural

communities

Ruralemployment

Speed of rural land

use change



agribusiness

UK agricultural

intensi�cation

Use of chemical

inputs


Stockingdensity

GHGemissions

from cropland

GHGemissions

from livestock



Sequestra-tion of

organic C

GHG removal from

atmosphere

Forest surface area



arrangements

Waterquality

Soilquantity

Soilquality

Airquality

Wateravailability


biotic stocks


abiotic stocks


ecosystem services

Environ-mental

Equality


ecological systems








species


programs



Seasonal water

shortages


Growing season


land



concentration


concentration


recharge


Flooding

Coastalerosion




rainfall events




GHG emissions


space

Consumption


Retirement age

Company car subsidy

Housingsupply

Housingquality

Exogenousfactors

Environ-mental

Equality


land

Housingquality

Seasonal water

shortages


concentration

Surface water Surface water pollutant

concentration


recharge


Flooding

Coastalerosion




rainfall events


dwellings

Housingsupply

Inboundtourism


Consumption

Consumer durables in household


families

Household debt

Access to

Economic growth-GDP

Property

Housingwealth

Employ-ment

Disposableincome

Agglomera-tion

economies


Urbanisa-tion

economies

Local government

revenue

Strength of local

economyeconomyeconomy




workers


spacespacespace

Housing prices

Demand forhousing


Access tocredit

Propertytax

governmentrevenue

Size of dwellings


spacespacespace

Property

governmentrevenue

Access to


spacespacespace

Consumer durables in household possessionpossessionpossession

Employ

Disposableincome


Employ

Disposableincome

Size of dwellings Population

density

E�ectivedensity

Access to services that enhance the quality of lifequality of lifequality of life

Extent of mixed-use

developmentdevelopmentdevelopment

Urbangrowth

Spatial separation

of functions

Sub-urbanisation


Spatial separation

of minorities

supplysupply

Social cohesion


Knowledge intensity of Knowledge intensity of Knowledge

economic intensity of economic

intensity of

activityactivityactivity


structures

Fluidity and leanness of Fluidity and leanness of Fluidity and

logistical chains

logistical chains

logistical


Home working


Retirement age

Fossil fuel price

Demand for energy


energyenergyenergy

Demand for coal



Fuel costs

Excise duties

Demand for Demand for minerals

extraction sites


Car ownership

Congestion

Commutingdistance

Car (& truck) usage

Commutingtime

Physicalinactivity

Noxious/GHG

Emissions

Injuries

Extent of cross-

commutingcommutingcommuting

Access to public

transport

network



workers

Demand for Demand for freight

transport

Company car subsidy

Population


Size of households

Globalisa-tion

Global mobility of

people

Birth rate

Lifeexpectancy

Size of households

Size of households

Amount of land in

private trustsprivate trustsprivate trusts


biotic stocksbiotic stocksbiotic stocks


abiotic stocks



Capacity of

ecosystem services

ecosystem services

ecosystem



Quantity and

reserves and quality of nature


protected areas


of conservation of specialist species


concern


of conservation of generalist species


concern


species


programs

E�ectiveness of E�ectiveness of wider land



management Resilience of Resilience of

social-ecological

systemssystemssystems

Waterquality

Soilquantity

Soilquality

Airquality

Wateravailability


Spread of disease


GHG emissions

Use of chemical

inputs


Stockingdensity

GHGemissions

from cropland

GHGemissions

from livestock

Sequestra-tion of

organic Corganic C

GHG removal from

atmosphere



Growing season

Impact ofclimatechangechange



GHG emissions

Rural Land price


revenues

Demand for UK agricultural UK agricultural

land


mgt skillsmgt skills

Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural commodity

prices

Competitive Competitive pressure on

UK agricultureUK agricultureUK agriculture


products

Viability of Viability of farming business

Viability of rural

communities

Ruralemployment

Speed of rural land

use changeuse changeuse change

Economies Economies of scale in agriculture


agribusiness

UK agricultural

intensi�cation


non-agricultural agricultural to


landnon-agricultural


Forest surface area


arrangements

Demographics

Economic Structure

Consumption

Demand for energy

Transport

Housing

Urban structure

Water

Agriculture

(A)Biotic stocks

Climate change

Wellbeing

Economic Growth

Land System In uence DiagramForesight project on Land Use Futures


Land system – clustered infl uence diagram

Systems maps

11


GHG emissions

Exogenousfactors



Demand forhousing



families

Household debt



Access tocredit

Car ownership

Congestion

Economic growth-GDP

Size of households

Propertytax

Housingwealth

Fossil fuel price

Inboundtourism

Globalisa-tion

Global mobility of

people

Birth rate

Lifeexpectancy

Rural Land price

Commutingdistance

Car (& truck) usage

Commutingtime

Physicalinactivity

Noxious/GHG

Emissions

Populationdensity

Social cohesion

E�ectivedensity

Injuries


revenues

Employ-ment

Disposableincome

Spread of disease

Demand for energy


Extent of mixed-use

development

Extent of cross-

commuting

Agglomera-tion

economies


Urbanisa-tion

economies

Access to public



energy


land

Demand for coal

Urbangrowth

Amount of land in

private trusts



Spatial separation

of functions

Sub-urbanisation

Speed of travel


Local government

revenue

Size of dwellings



mgt skills


activity


structures


logistical chains


Strength of local

economy



workers

Home working

Fuel costs



Demand for freight

transport



workers

Excise duties

Demand for minerals

extraction sites


Spatial separation

of minorities


prices


UK agriculture


products


Viability of rural

communities

Ruralemployment

Speed of rural land

use change



agribusiness

UK agricultural

intensi�cation

Use of chemical

inputs


Stockingdensity

GHGemissions

from cropland

GHGemissions

from livestock



Sequestra-tion of

organic C

GHG removal from

atmosphere

Forest surface area



arrangements

Waterquality

Soilquantity

Soilquality

Airquality

Wateravailability


biotic stocks


abiotic stocks


ecosystem services

Environ-mental

Equality


ecological systems








species


programs



Seasonal water

shortages


Growing season


land



concentration


concentration


recharge


Flooding

Coastalerosion




rainfall events




GHG emissions


space

Consumption


Retirement age

Company car subsidy

Housingsupply

Housingquality

Exogenousfactors

Environ-mental

Equality


land

Housingquality

Seasonal water

shortages


concentration


concentration


recharge


Flooding

Coastalerosion




rainfall events


dwellings

Housingsupply

Inboundtourism


Consumption



families

Household debt

Access to

Economic growth-GDP

Property

Housingwealth

Employ-ment

Disposableincome

Agglomera-tion

economies


Urbanisa-tion

economies

Local government

revenue

Strength of local





workers


spacespacespace

Housing prices

Demand forhousing


Access tocredit

Propertytax

governmentrevenue

Size of dwellings


spacespacespace

Property

governmentrevenue

Access to


spacespacespace


Employ

Disposableincome


Employ

Disposableincome

Size of dwellings Population

density

E�ectivedensity


Extent of mixed-use


Urbangrowth

Spatial separation

of functions

Sub-urbanisation


Spatial separation

of minorities

supplysupply

Social cohesion




intensity of



structures


logistical chains

logistical chains

logistical


Home working


Retirement age

Fossil fuel price

Demand for energy


energyenergyenergy

Demand for coal



Fuel costs

Excise duties


extraction sites


Car ownership

Congestion

Commutingdistance

Car (& truck) usage

Commutingtime

Physicalinactivity

Noxious/GHG

Emissions

Injuries

Extent of cross-


Access to public

transport

network



workers


transport

Company car subsidy

Population


Size of households

Globalisa-tion

Global mobility of

people

Birth rate

Lifeexpectancy

Size of households

Size of households

Amount of land in





abiotic stocks



Capacity of

ecosystem services

ecosystem services

ecosystem



Quantity and



protected areas




concern




concern


species


programs




management Resilience of Resilience of

social-ecological

systemssystemssystems

Waterquality

Soilquantity

Soilquality

Airquality

Wateravailability


Spread of disease


GHG emissions

Use of chemical

inputs


Stockingdensity

GHGemissions

from cropland

GHGemissions

from livestock

Sequestra-tion of

organic Corganic C

GHG removal from

atmosphere



Growing season




GHG emissions

Rural Land price


revenues


land




prices




products


Viability of rural

communities

Ruralemployment

Speed of rural land




agribusiness

UK agricultural

intensi�cation






Forest surface area


arrangements

Demographics

Economic Structure

Consumption

Demand for energy

Transport

Housing

Urban structure

Water

Agriculture

(A)Biotic stocks

Climate change

Wellbeing

Economic Growth

Land System In uence DiagramForesight project on Land Use Futures


Land system – clustered infl uence diagram by Government department

Systems maps

12


GHG emissions

Exogenousfactors



Demand forhousing



families

Household debt



Access tocredit

Car ownership

Congestion

Economic growth-GDP

Size of households

Propertytax

Housingwealth

Fossil fuel price

Inboundtourism

Globalisa-tion

Global mobility of

people

Birth rate

Lifeexpectancy

Rural Land price

Commutingdistance

Car (& truck) usage

Commutingtime

Physicalinactivity

Noxious/GHG

Emissions

Populationdensity

Social cohesion

E�ectivedensity

Injuries


revenues

Employ-ment

Disposableincome

Spread of disease

Demand for energy


Extent of mixed-use

development

Extent of cross-

commuting

Agglomera-tion

economies


Urbanisa-tion

economies

Access to public



energy


land

Demand for coal

Urbangrowth

Amount of land in

private trusts



Spatial separation

of functions

Sub-urbanisation

Speed of travel


Local government

revenue

Size of dwellings



mgt skills


activity


structures


logistical chains


Strength of local

economy



workers

Home working

Fuel costs



Demand for freight

transport



workers

Excise duties

Demand for minerals

extraction sites


Spatial separation

of minorities


prices


UK agriculture


products


Viability of rural

communities

Ruralemployment

Speed of rural land

use change



agribusiness

UK agricultural

intensi�cation

Use of chemical

inputs


Stockingdensity

GHGemissions

from cropland

GHGemissions

from livestock



Sequestra-tion of

organic C

GHG removal from

atmosphere

Forest surface area



arrangements

Waterquality

Soilquantity

Soilquality

Airquality

Wateravailability


biotic stocks


abiotic stocks


ecosystem services

Environ-mental

Equality


ecological systems








species


programs



Seasonal water

shortages


Growing season


land



concentration


concentration


recharge


Flooding

Coastalerosion




rainfall events




GHG emissions


space

Consumption


Retirement age

Company car subsidy

Housingsupply

Housingquality


GHG emissions

Exogenousfactors



Demand forhousing



families

Household debt



Access tocredit

Car ownership

Congestion

Economic growth-GDP

Size of households

Propertytax

Housingwealth

Fossil fuel price

Inboundtourism

Globalisa-tion

Global mobility of

people

Birth rate

Lifeexpectancy

Rural Land price

Commutingdistance

Car (& truck) usage

Commutingtime

Physicalinactivity

Noxious/GHG

Emissions

Populationdensity

Social cohesion

E�ectivedensity

Injuries


revenues

Employ-ment

Disposableincome

Spread of disease

Demand for energy


Extent of mixed-use


Extent of cross-


Agglomera-tion

economies


Urbanisa-tion

economies

Access to public



energyenergyenergy


land

Demand for coal

Urbangrowth

Amount of land in




Spatial separation

of functions

Sub-urbanisation

Speed of travel


Local government

revenue

Size of dwellings






intensity of



structures


logistical chains

logistical chains

logistical


Strength of local




workers

Home working

Fuel costs




transport



workers

Excise duties


extraction sites


Spatial separation

of minorities


prices




products


Viability of rural

communities

Ruralemployment

Speed of rural land




agribusiness

UK agricultural

intensi�cation

Use of chemical

inputs


Stockingdensity

GHGemissions

from cropland

GHGemissions

from livestock






Sequestra-tion of

organic Corganic C

GHG removal from

atmosphere

Forest surface area



arrangements

Waterquality

Soilquantity

Soilquality

Airquality

Wateravailability




abiotic stocks



Capacity of

ecosystem services

ecosystem services

ecosystem

Environ-mental

Equality

Resilience of Resilience of social-

ecological systemssystemssystems



Quantity and



protected areas




concern




concern


species


programs




management

Seasonal water

shortages


Growing season


land



concentration


concentration


recharge


Flooding

Coastalerosion




rainfall events




GHG emissions


spacespacespace

Consumption


Retirement age

Company car subsidy

Housingsupply

Housingquality

14

55

771

35

36

32

43

4041

36

Clear improvement

Little or no change

Clear deterioration

Insucient data to compare

Since 2003

6

6

4

55 3

55

9

9

2

10

24

17

21

57

26

5068

21

62

60 27

29

3137

3434

55

8

NOx, Electricity

Fossil, CO2.

26

26

66

29

Bus, Transp.

PM10,

NH3, NOx, SO2

2020

Woodland, Sea, Wintering Wet

Farmland

TotalSocial

283030

15

30

2830

61

6161

BiologicalChemical

Rural Ozone

Urban+roadside PM10

Urban Ozone

122 Bus, Transp.

Residential

5 Fossil, CO2.

1112

23

13

13

CO2, NOx

CO2

CO2

1

22

22Fertiliser use, NH3

CH4

Farmlandbirds

22

NOx, PM10

CO2,

Greenhouse gas emission1. Greenhouse gas emissions2. Carbon dioxide emissions by end user3. Aviation and shipping emissionsElectricity generation4. Renewable energy5. Electricity generationCarbon dioxide and other emissions6. Household energy use7. Road transport use8. Private cars9. Road freight10. Manufacturing sector11. Service sector12. Public sector

Resource use13. Resource use14. Energy supply15. Water resource use16. Domestic water consumption17. Water stressWater18. Waste19. Household waste per person

Natural resources20. Bird population21. Biodiversity conservation22. Agriculture sector23. Farming and environmental stewardship24. Land use25. Land recycling26. Dwelling density27. Fish stock28. Ecological impacts or air pollution29. Emissions of air pollutants30. River quality31. Flooding

Contextual indicators32. Economic growth33. Productivity34. Investment35. Demography36. Household and dwellingsSociety37. Active community participation38. Crime39. Fear of crimo

Employment and poverty40. Employment41. Workless households42. Economically inactive43. Childhood poverty44. Young adults45. Pensioner poverty46. Pension provisionEducation47. Education48. Sustainable development education

Health49. Health inequality50. Healthy life expectancy51. Mortality rates52. Smoking53. Childhood obesity54. DietMobility and access55. Mobility56. Getting to school57. Accessibility58. Road accidents

Social justice/ Environnmental equality59. Social justice60. Environmental equality61. Air quality and health62. Housing conditions63. Households living in fuel poverty64. Homelessness65. Local environment quality66. Satisfaction in local areaInternational67. UK international assistanceWellbeing68. Wellbeing

Sustainable Development I ndicators

Source: Sustainable development indicators in your pocket 2009. Published by DEFRA.

Land System In�uence DiagramForesight project on Land Use Futures


Land system – infl uence and sustainability diagram

This report has been produced as part of the UK Government’s Foresight Project, Land Use Futures. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

All the reports and papers produced by the Foresight Land Use Futures may be downloaded from the Foresight website (www.foresight.gov.uk). Requests for hard copies may be made through this website.

Printed in the UK on recycled paper with a minimum HMSO score of 75 First published February 2010.

The Government Office for Science. © Crown copyright. URN 10/632.

Documents

Foresight UK Land Use Systems Maps