Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Air Quality Forecasting
Bas Mijling
Ronald van der A
AMFIC Annual Meeting ● Beijing 16-17 ● October 2008
AMFIC Work Package 5
5.1 Implementation of a chemical transport model on a 0.25 degree resolution
5.2 Model improvements, especially the incorporation of aerosols in the model
5.3 A better emission database will be incorporated in the model. If possible, this database will be improved based on retrieval-model comparisons
5.4 Implementation of an operational chemical weather forecast service
Overview
1. Implementation Chimere model
2. Results and validation
3. Satellites, model, and Olympic Games
4. Future steps
1Implementation Chimere model
Processes taken into account
eveningnoonmorning
VOC
NOx
VOCNOx
VOC
Deposition
Winds limit layer
FREE TROPOSPHERE
100 mTemperature
2000 m
Winds altitude
MIXING LAYER
hv
Inversion
Overview Chimere
output
CHIMERE
ECMWFmeteo
MELCHIOR scheme44 species120 reactions
INTEX-B2006 inventory
GLGC database1 x 1 km²
emissions
monthly averagesgas phase: LMDZ-INCA2aerosol: GOCART
boundaryconditions
end field of previoussimulation
initial field
landuse
chemistry
Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree8 horizontal layersHourly concentrations of44 gases and aerosols
Domain of Chimere
INTEX-B Emissions by Qiang Zhangand David Streets
Shifted emission profile
Europe (GMT+2)
China (GMT+8)
Emission comparisonINTEX-B 2006
East Asia, 0.5×0.5 degree
Sectors (4) pollutants
Power
Industry
Residential
Transportation
NOx
SOx
CO
VOC (30)
PM10
PM2.5
BC
OC
EMEP 1990-2004
Europe, 50×50 km
Sectors (11) pollutants
Combustion in energy and transform. ind.
Non-industrial combustion plants
Combustion in manufacturing industry
Production processes
Extraction/distribution of fossil fuels
Solvent and other product use
Road transport
Other mobile sources and machinery
Waste treatment and disposal
Agriculture
NOx
SOx
CO
NH3
NMVOC
PM10
PM2.5
POPs (8)
Heavy metals (5)
Meteo Forecast Timeline
Using ECMWF’s 144h forecast at 12:00 UTC makes a 5-day forecast possible
Use of Chimere Results
• Forecast of air quality in China for large urban areas– www.amfic.eu/bulletin
• Air quality forecast during Olympic Games– www.knmi.nl/beijing2008
• Background values for street level model CERC– www.beijingairquality.cn/
• Background values for regional model VITO– www.vito.be/amfic
www.amfic.eu/bulletin
Implementation Summary
• Chimere operationally implemented for China– Resolution 0.25°×0.25°– Daily 5-day forecast and analysis
• Model output daily published on internet– And further processed by CERC and VITO
• To do: More realistic implementation of emission database
2Results and Validation
Validation SourcesGround measurements
Beijing Daily mean 12 pm-12pmof 27 stations
Surface concentrationNO2, SO2, PM10
http://bjepb.gov.cn/air2008/olympic.aspx
Shanghai Daily mean 12 pm-12pmof n stations
Surface concentrationNO2, SO2, PM10
http://www.envir.online.sh.cn/airnews/index.asp
Hong Kong Hourly data for 14 stations
Surface concentrationNO2, SO2, O3, CO, PM10
http://www.epd-asg.gov.hk/english/24pollu/pc_24station.php
Satellite measurements
OMI Daily at local overpass time 13:30h
Tropospheric NO2
columnhttp://www.temis.nl
GOME-2 Daily at local overpass time 09:30h
Tropospheric NO2
columnhttp://www.temis.nl
Diurnal variation
Measurements (W.-x. Wang et al., 2008Air Qual Atmos Health)
Chimere (0.5°×0.5°; meteo bug)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21
Local Time
[ug/
m3]
SO2 NO NO2 O3 PM10 CO
Measured August 7 to September 30, 2007at Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Diurnal variation
Measurements (W.-x. Wang et al., 2008Air Qual Atmos Health)
Chimere (0.25°×0.25°)
NO2 Timeseries Beijing
0
50
100
150
200
2008
0610
2008
0612
2008
0614
2008
0616
2008
0618
2008
0620
2008
0622
2008
0624
2008
0626
2008
0628
2008
0630
2008
0702
2008
0704
2008
0706
2008
0708
2008
0710
surf
ace
con
cen
trat
ion
[u
g/m
3]
NO2 ground
NO2 chimere
Comparison with BeijingPreliminary!
PM10 Timeseries Beijing
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2008
0610
2008
0612
2008
0614
2008
0616
2008
0618
2008
0620
2008
0622
2008
0624
2008
0626
2008
0628
2008
0630
2008
0702
2008
0704
2008
0706
2008
0708
2008
0710
surf
ace
con
cen
trat
ion
[u
g/m
3]
PM10 ground
PM10 chimere
NO2 Daytime (8:00-19:00) Timeseries Hong Kong
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008
06
10
2008
06
12
2008
06
14
2008
06
16
2008
06
18
2008
06
20
2008
06
22
2008
06
24
2008
06
26
2008
06
28
2008
06
30
2008
07
02
2008
07
04
2008
07
06
2008
07
08
2008
07
10
surf
ace
con
cen
trat
ion
[u
g/m
3]
NO2 rural
NO2 urban
NO2 chimere
Comparison with Hong Kong (daytime)
Preliminary!
PM10 Daytime (8:00-19:00) Timeseries Hong Kong
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008
0610
2008
0612
2008
0614
2008
0616
2008
0618
2008
0620
2008
0622
2008
0624
2008
0626
2008
0628
2008
0630
2008
0702
2008
0704
2008
0706
2008
0708
2008
0710
surf
ace
con
cen
trat
ion
[u
g/m
3]
PM10 rural
PM10 urban
PM10 chimere
Measurements by BBC
PM10 MODEL vs BBC Measurements
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2008
0709
2008
0711
2008
0713
2008
0715
2008
0717
2008
0719
2008
0721
2008
0723
2008
0725
2008
0727
2008
0729
2008
0731
2008
0802
2008
0804
2008
0806
2008
0808
2008
0810
2008
0812
2008
0814
2008
0816
2008
0818
2008
0820
2008
0822
2008
0824
2008
0826
PM10 Chimere 13h LT
PM10 BBC
Olympic Games
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7506925.stm
PM10 in Shenyang after rain
Forecasts Beijing for Thu 10 July
Sun 6 July Mon 7 July Tue 8 July
Wed 9 July Thu 10 July Fri 11 July (analysis)
3Satellites, Model and
Olympic Games
Air Quality Effect by NASAhttp://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/china.html
Cumulated Rain in Beijing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 2 3 4 5 6
Period
pre
cip
itat
ion
[m
m]
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1 1-30 June 2008 Pre Olympic
2 1 July – 7 August 2008 Start of AQ measures
3 8-24 August 2008 Olympic Games
4 25 Aug – 5 Sep 2008 Between Olympics
5 5-17 September 2008 Paralympics
6 18-30 September Post Olympic
Satellite validation tropospheric NO2
• Lots of cloudy pixels during Olympic period• Use of averaging kernel A of retrieval necessary• Selection criteria satellite retrievals:
– Distance < 50 km– Cloud fraction < 50%– Cloud pressure < 800 hPa
• Interpolate model profiles to time and footprint
• Now compare Ntrop,sat with Ntrop,AK = A xtrop,model
CHIMERE vs GOME-2 09:30Daily mean, NO2 difference CHIMERE - GOME2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008
0601
2008
0604
2008
0607
2008
0610
2008
0613
2008
0616
2008
0619
2008
0622
2008
0625
2008
0628
2008
0701
2008
0704
2008
0707
2008
0710
2008
0713
2008
0716
2008
0719
2008
0722
2008
0725
2008
0728
2008
0731
2008
0803
2008
0806
2008
0809
2008
0812
2008
0815
2008
0818
2008
0821
2008
0824
2008
0827
2008
0830
2008
0902
2008
0905
2008
0908
2008
0911
2008
0914
2008
0917
2008
0920
2008
0923
2008
0926
Daily mean, NO2 relative difference (CHIMERE - GOME2)/CHIMERE
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2008
0601
2008
0605
2008
0609
2008
0613
2008
0617
2008
0621
2008
0625
2008
0629
2008
0703
2008
0707
2008
0711
2008
0715
2008
0719
2008
0723
2008
0727
2008
0731
2008
0804
2008
0808
2008
0812
2008
0816
2008
0820
2008
0824
2008
0828
2008
0901
2008
0905
2008
0909
2008
0913
2008
0917
2008
0921
2008
0925
CHIMERE vs OMI 13:30 Daily mean, NO2 difference CHIMERE - OMI
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008
0601
2008
0604
2008
0607
2008
0610
2008
0613
2008
0616
2008
0619
2008
0622
2008
0625
2008
0628
2008
0701
2008
0704
2008
0707
2008
0710
2008
0713
2008
0716
2008
0719
2008
0722
2008
0725
2008
0728
2008
0731
2008
0803
2008
0806
2008
0809
2008
0812
2008
0815
2008
0818
2008
0821
2008
0824
2008
0827
2008
0830
2008
0902
2008
0905
2008
0908
2008
0911
2008
0914
2008
0917
2008
0920
2008
0923
2008
0926
Daily mean, NO2 relative difference (CHIMERE - OMI)/CHIMERE
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2008
0601
2008
0605
2008
0609
2008
0613
2008
0617
2008
0621
2008
0625
2008
0629
2008
0703
2008
0707
2008
0711
2008
0715
2008
0719
2008
0723
2008
0727
2008
0731
2008
0804
2008
0808
2008
0812
2008
0816
2008
0820
2008
0824
2008
0828
2008
0901
2008
0905
2008
0909
2008
0913
2008
0917
2008
0921
2008
0925
4Future Steps
• Improvements of model– Boundary layer– Aerosols– …
• Improvement of emissions– Adjusting to 2008/2009 levels– Using satellite data– Better diurnal cycle by sector– Higher resolution (VITO)– …
Future Steps
Desaggregation of emissions
Original INTEX-B (0.5x0.5)Desaggregated by VITO to
AMFIC grid (0.25x0.25)
Growth NO2 above China
2003
SCIAMACHY, tropospheric NO2 , annual mean
2006
Conflicting NO2 Trends?
Annual tropospheric NO2 column over Beijing(combined GOME and SCIAMACHY)
10
14 15 15 16
19
2426
28
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
NO
2 c
once
ntr
ati
on
(1e15 m
ole
c./c
m2)
Source: Beijing Organizing Committeefor the Games of the XXIX Olympiad;W.-x. Wang et al., 2008
NO2 Trends OMI 2004-2008Boston-Washington
0.0E+00
5.0E+15
1.0E+16
1.5E+16
2.0E+16
2.5E+16
Aug-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Dec-08
Date
OM
I N
O2
(mo
lecu
les
cm-2
)
Netherlands Belgium and Luxembourg
0.0E+00
5.0E+15
1.0E+16
1.5E+16
2.0E+16
2.5E+16
Aug-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Dec-08
Date
OM
I N
O2
(mo
lecu
les
cm-2
)
Beijing
0.0E+00
5.0E+15
1.0E+16
1.5E+16
2.0E+16
2.5E+16
Aug-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Dec-08
Date
OM
I N
O2
(mo
lecu
les
cm-2
)
Courtesy Jennifer Hains
Conclusions
• Chimere model is successfully implemented• Daily operational forecasts are available on
website http://www.amfic.eu/bulletin
• Results validate well, but only limited ground sources available
• Beijing AQ measures can be observed from space
• Model and emissions are to be improved
Thank you!
API Beijing 2005
Air Pollution I ndex Beijing 2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 -
5
5 -
10
10 -
15
15 -
20
20 -
25
25 -
30
30 -
35
35 -
40
40 -
45
45 -
50
50 -
55
55 -
60
60 -
65
65 -
70
70 -
75
75 -
80
80 -
85
85 -
90
90 -
95
95 -
100
100
- 10
5
105
- 11
0
110
- 11
5
115
- 12
0
120
- 12
5
125
- 13
0
130
- 13
5
135
- 14
0
140
- 14
5
145
- 15
0
150
- 15
5
155
- 16
0
160
- 16
5
165
- 17
0
170
- 17
5
175
- 18
0
180
- 18
5
185
- 19
0
190
- 19
5
195
- 20
0
>200
nu
mb
er
of
da
ys
95-100
API Beijing 2006
Air Pollution I ndex Beijing 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 -
5
5 -
10
10 -
15
15 -
20
20 -
25
25 -
30
30 -
35
35 -
40
40 -
45
45 -
50
50 -
55
55 -
60
60 -
65
65 -
70
70 -
75
75 -
80
80 -
85
85 -
90
90 -
95
95 -
100
100
- 10
5
105
- 11
0
110
- 11
5
115
- 12
0
120
- 12
5
125
- 13
0
130
- 13
5
135
- 14
0
140
- 14
5
145
- 15
0
150
- 15
5
155
- 16
0
160
- 16
5
165
- 17
0
170
- 17
5
175
- 18
0
180
- 18
5
185
- 19
0
190
- 19
5
195
- 20
0
>200
nu
mb
er
of
da
ys
95-100
API Beijing 2007
Air Pollution I ndex Beijing 2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 -
5
5 -
10
10 -
15
15 -
20
20 -
25
25 -
30
30 -
35
35 -
40
40 -
45
45 -
50
50 -
55
55 -
60
60 -
65
65 -
70
70 -
75
75 -
80
80 -
85
85 -
90
90 -
95
95 -
100
100
- 10
5
105
- 11
0
110
- 11
5
115
- 12
0
120
- 12
5
125
- 13
0
130
- 13
5
135
- 14
0
140
- 14
5
145
- 15
0
150
- 15
5
155
- 16
0
160
- 16
5
165
- 17
0
170
- 17
5
175
- 18
0
180
- 18
5
185
- 19
0
190
- 19
5
195
- 20
0
>200
nu
mb
er
of
da
ys
95-100
