Air Transport Beyond the Crisis_Pascal Huet_WTFL 2009

8/3/2019 Air Transport Beyond the Crisis_Pascal Huet_WTFL 2009

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World Tourism Forum Lucerne, 24 April 2009

Air transport beyond the crisis

Pascal Huet

Director, Market Research & Forcasts

Airbus


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World Tourism Forum Lucerne 24 April 2009 Page 2

- The Recovery

- Air Transport is a growth industry

- Airbus way to eco-efficiency

Air Transport beyond the crisis


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5 forces will drive global economic recovery

- Record low interest rates and unorthodox monetary policy stimulus(e.g. the US Federal Reserve buying mortgage-backed securities)

- Sharp drops in commodity prices, which help importing countries

- Inventories reaching a low

- Big bank rescue packages

- Fiscal and economic stimulus, especially in the US and China


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-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

Economists anticipate a technical recovery*by 3Q2009

Source: Global Insight (Feb 2009) , Airbus

World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)

History Forecast

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

* Economy starts growing above the most recent trend

We arehere

Strong growthsince 2004 Slowdown

Deepcrisis Recovery

Completerecovery

+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.3+0.4+0.5+0.7+0.8+1.3+0.3-0.3-0.7-1.5-1.1-0.3-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1Curveslope


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Still a Two-Speed World with Emerging

economies less impacted by currentdownturn

Source: Global Insight (Feb 2009), Airbus

Advancedeconomies

Emergingeconomies

Real GDP growth (%)

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0%


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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Other emerging countries as big as China

and India combinedPopulation (millions)

Emerging countriesof tomorrow

Emerging countries of today

India

China

Brazil

Ukraine

Argentina

Indonesia

RussiaTurkey

21 countries2 billion people

China andIndia today:more

countries tofollow


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The main drivers of tomorrows traffic growth

Growing Middle East passenger and cargo hubs

Asia: a new economic paradigm in the making

LCCs in Asia growing in number and traffic share

Accelerating deregulation in Asia

Continuing high growth rate for domestic China andemerging China international outbound traffic


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Air transport has a role in most peoples lives

Sharetimewith friendsand family

Discovernewhorizons and

cultures

Increaseopportunitiesand business

Resolveglobal issues

people and goods need to fly

Opennewmarkets


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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Emerging countries will drive the worldeconomy

Source: Global Insight, Airbus

GDP growth 2007-2012

MiddleEast

WesternEurope

Russia

Japan

China

AfricaIndia

Australia

Latin America

EasternEurope

US

Bubble size proportional to real GDP at PPP (Purchasing Power Parity)in US$billions in 2012

Real consumer spending growth 2007-2012


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0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Air travel remains a growth market

Air traffichas doubled

every 15 years

Air traffic

will doublein the next15 years

World annual traffic(RPKs - trillions)

ICAOtotal traffic

Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecast

20-year

world annualtraffic growth

4.7%

Airbus


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- Last year world airlines carried more than 2.2 billion passengers

- 40% in value of interregional export of good are carried by air

- Air transport generates 32 million jobs worldwide

- It contributes for 8% to the world GDP 2% global CO2 emissions

Air transport is vital to the modern world


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RPK growth: 2007 vs. 2000RPK growth: 2007 vs. 2000

Europe+25%

Europe

+25% North America+8%

North America

+8%

Latin AmericaIntl

+25%

Latin AmericaIntl

+25%

Africa Intl+54%

Africa Intl+54%

Middle

East Intl+144%

MiddleEast Intl

+144%

Asia-Pacific

Intl+27%

Asia-Pacific

Intl+27%

China+177%

China+177%

India+184%India+184%

Source: ATA (North America), AEA (Europe), AAPA Intl (Asia-Pacific), IATA Gabi (Latin America, Africa & Middle East), CAAC (China)

The challenge

Passenger traffic is expected to grow 5% per year during the next two decades

Freight air traffic should grow even faster, at about 6% per year

The fastest growing demand comes from emerging highly populated regions

But

Environmental awareness is growing on a global & regional level

Air transport growth must not translate into growing environmental impact

Meeting both growing demand &environmental concerns


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An Industry with a great track record

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Turbojets

1st Generation Turbofans

2nd Generation Turbofans

LateralNois

eLevel

CorrectedforAi

rcraftThrust

More than 20dB

improvement

In the last 40 years, commercial aviation industry has achieved

75% noise reduction


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An Industry with a great track record

Jan 58 Jun 63 Dec 68 Jun 74 Nov 79 May 85 Nov 90 May 96 Oct 01

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Aircraft fuel

Burn per seat

Engine fuel

Consumption

-70 %

In the last 40 years, commercial aviation industry has achieved

70% fuel burn reduction70% CO2 emissions reduction

And also 90% reduction in unburned hydrocarbon and smoke


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Airbus vision

EcoEco--efficiency meansefficiency means

creating value with lesscreating value with less

environmental impactenvironmental impact

Airbus delivers

responsible solutions

for a demanding worldby providing leadership

as an Eco-Efficient Enterprise


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Full life-cycle approach

Delivering eco-efficient solutions at every stage

GlobalISO140

01CertificationGlobal

ISO14001Certification


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Alfa-bird

CALIN

CALINVIVACE

SESAR

R&T

Airbus at the forefront of R&T withover 400 initiatives ongoing

Next generation will be the Game Changer


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Air Transport Beyond the Crisis_Pascal Huet_WTFL 2009