Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
January 22, 2018
Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin
Challenges Ahead
Steven F. Udvar-Házy Executive Chairman
2
Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures
Statements in this presentation that are not historical facts are hereby identified as “forward-looking statements,” including any statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans, predictions, forecasts, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance that are not historical facts and may be forward-looking. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as “anticipate,” “believes,” “can,” “could,” “may,” “predicts,” “potential,” “should,” “will,” “estimate,” “plans,” “projects,” “continuing,” “ongoing,” “expects,” “intends” and similar words or phrases. Accordingly, these statements are only predictions and involve estimates, known and unknown risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in them. We wish to caution you that our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, including the following:
• our inability to make acquisitions of, or lease, aircraft on favorable terms;
• our inability to sell aircraft on favorable terms;
• our inability to obtain additional financing on favorable terms, if required, to complete the acquisition of sufficient aircraft as currently contemplated or to fund the operations and growth of our business;
• our inability to effectively oversee our managed fleet
• our inability to obtain refinancing prior to the time our debt matures;
• impaired financial condition and liquidity of our lessees;
• deterioration of economic conditions in the commercial aviation industry generally;
• increased maintenance, operating or other expenses or changes in the timing thereof;
• changes in the regulatory environment; and
• potential natural disasters and terrorist attacks and the amount of our insurance coverage, if any, relating thereto.
We also refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), specifically the Company’s Annual Report on
Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, which contains and identifies important factors that could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from expectations and any subsequent documents the Company files with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are necessarily only estimates of future results, and there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations, and, therefore, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. If any such risks or uncertainties develop, our business, results of operation and financial condition could be adversely affected.
The Company has an effective registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC. Before you invest in any offering of the Company’s securities, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the Company has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Company and any such offering. You may obtain copies of the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and the other documents it files with the SEC for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Company will arrange to send such information if you request it by contacting Air Lease Corporation, General Counsel and Secretary, 2000 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1000N, Los Angeles, California 90067 (310) 553-0555.
In addition to financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, this presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Management believes that in addition to using GAAP results in evaluating our business, it can also be useful to measure results using certain non-GAAP financial measures. Investors and potential investors are encouraged to review the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures with their most direct comparable GAAP financial results set forth in the Appendix section.
2
Potential challenges ahead
Potential Challenges
Ahead
Macro Volatility
Evolving Airline
Landscape
Shift to New Generation
Aircraft
Production Rates
Availability of Capital
Aircraft Leasing
Competition
3
Global economic
growth
Passenger growth
continuing
Aircraft demand strong
Access to financing
Today’s Market
Today’s market: clear for takeoff
Source: IATA Fact Sheet Industry Statistics, December 2017; Percentages for system-wide global commercial airlines
4
+7.5% 2017E
+5.7% 2014
+5.2% 2013
+7.3% 2015
+7.4% 2016
Global passenger growth, rpk %
Periods of turbulence Historical global airline profitability as reported by IATA
Airline profitability driven by passenger traffic and low oil prices
5
Net
pro
fit ($
billi
on)
($30)
($20)
($10)
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Source: IATA Fact Sheet Industry Statistics, December 2017
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Helped rejuvenate airline
balance sheets
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Key market drivers Factors contributing to healthy demand for air travel
Oil1 Interest Rates2
USD Strength3 Passenger Travel4
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Source: 1Bloomberg as of 1/10/18, ICE Brent/$BBL; 2Bloomberg as of 1/10/18, 10 year UST; 3Bloomberg as of 1/10/18, DXY Index; 4World Bank World Development Indicators as of 12/22/17
6
! Warning
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
'75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
Passengers carried (billion)Global Population
CAGR: 1.49%
CAGR: 5.37%
Evolving airline landscape Emergence of LCC/ULCC carriers
Illustrative example of low cost airlines launched since 2010
7
Source: Logos reflect the low cost airline or its parent/associated company
Evolving airline landscape Evaluating the impact of LCC/ULCC carriers
LCC/ULCC driving fares lower…
Average round-trip ticket price
…Resulting in unprecedented affordability
Market Share, Western Europe (%)
Worldwide passenger traffic is up… …As LCC/ULCC take share from legacy carriers
Source: Top left and top right charts: The Wall Street Journal article: How Budget Carriers Transformed the Airline Industry, August 2017, 2 Bottom left chart: IATA Fact Sheet Industry Statistics December 2017, 3Bottom right chart: Financial Times article: European airlines face more cuts and consolidation, October 2017
8
2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.7 2.9
3.0 3.2
3.3 3.6
3.8
4.1
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Sch
ed. P
asse
nger
num
bers
(bn)
Production rates Aggressive ordering and aspirational backlogs
Example of significant OEM orders from LCC/ULCC carriers
Are these orders/production rates sustainable?
Source: 1Boeing and Airbus; Includes Boeing unfilled orders through 12/31/17 and Airbus orders net deliveries as of 12/31/2017, 2JPMorgan research December 2017, based on Flight Ascend analysis of announced production rates
9
Driving expected increased production rates
Pla
nned
Ann
ual P
rodu
ctio
n2
Regional Jet Single Aisle Twin Aisle
Boe
ing/
Airb
us o
rder
s1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Availability of capital Abundant liquidity today…what about tomorrow?
Wide variety of financing
choices currently available
Significant financing
requirements to support
industry fleet growth will
require these capital
sources
Leasing Companies Tax Equity
Capital Markets Insurance
Commercial Banks Airframe & Engine Manufacturers
Export Credit Agencies New Sources of Funding
Alternative Asset Managers
Source: Boeing Capital, Current Aircraft Finance Market Outlook 2018 1 Assumes lessor fleet ownership remains at ~40%
10
$56 $61 $69 $74 $76
$83 $92
$103 $111 $113
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Fund
ing
need
ed ($
billi
ons)
Lessor share Funding needed from other sources1
>$800 billion of capital needed over next five years
to support industry fleet growth
Other sources:
>$500bn
Lessors1:
$335bn
Shift to new generation aircraft Technology risk is present in old and new generation aircraft
New Generation
11
Old Generation
- Obsolescence - Fuel economy - Maintenance
- Residual values - Customer experience
- Technical issues - Delivery delays - Airline adoption
- Production scale/availability
Know your counterparty ALC is a long-term partner for the airline industry
$43 billion Total assets owned and on order
659 Total aircraft owned, managed and on order
91% Order book placed through
2019
$23 billion Contracted & committed
fleet rentals1
High level of capitalization and significant liquidity
Scale
Visibility
Stability
Highest rated standalone aircraft lessor (S&P: BBB / Fitch: BBB / Kroll: A-)
Note: Values and information included above as of September 30, 2017 unless noted otherwise 1 Includes $9.6 billion of contracted minimum future rentals on our existing fleet and $13.7 billion committed rentals on our order book
12
Questions?