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January 22, 2018 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy Executive Chairman

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

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Page 1: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

January 22, 2018

Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin

Challenges Ahead

Steven F. Udvar-Házy Executive Chairman

Page 2: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

2

Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures

Statements in this presentation that are not historical facts are hereby identified as “forward-looking statements,” including any statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans, predictions, forecasts, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance that are not historical facts and may be forward-looking. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as “anticipate,” “believes,” “can,” “could,” “may,” “predicts,” “potential,” “should,” “will,” “estimate,” “plans,” “projects,” “continuing,” “ongoing,” “expects,” “intends” and similar words or phrases. Accordingly, these statements are only predictions and involve estimates, known and unknown risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in them. We wish to caution you that our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, including the following:

• our inability to make acquisitions of, or lease, aircraft on favorable terms;

• our inability to sell aircraft on favorable terms;

• our inability to obtain additional financing on favorable terms, if required, to complete the acquisition of sufficient aircraft as currently contemplated or to fund the operations and growth of our business;

• our inability to effectively oversee our managed fleet

• our inability to obtain refinancing prior to the time our debt matures;

• impaired financial condition and liquidity of our lessees;

• deterioration of economic conditions in the commercial aviation industry generally;

• increased maintenance, operating or other expenses or changes in the timing thereof;

• changes in the regulatory environment; and

• potential natural disasters and terrorist attacks and the amount of our insurance coverage, if any, relating thereto.

We also refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), specifically the Company’s Annual Report on

Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, which contains and identifies important factors that could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from expectations and any subsequent documents the Company files with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are necessarily only estimates of future results, and there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations, and, therefore, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. If any such risks or uncertainties develop, our business, results of operation and financial condition could be adversely affected.

The Company has an effective registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC. Before you invest in any offering of the Company’s securities, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the Company has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Company and any such offering. You may obtain copies of the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and the other documents it files with the SEC for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Company will arrange to send such information if you request it by contacting Air Lease Corporation, General Counsel and Secretary, 2000 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1000N, Los Angeles, California 90067 (310) 553-0555.

In addition to financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, this presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Management believes that in addition to using GAAP results in evaluating our business, it can also be useful to measure results using certain non-GAAP financial measures. Investors and potential investors are encouraged to review the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures with their most direct comparable GAAP financial results set forth in the Appendix section.

2

Page 3: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Potential challenges ahead

Potential Challenges

Ahead

Macro Volatility

Evolving Airline

Landscape

Shift to New Generation

Aircraft

Production Rates

Availability of Capital

Aircraft Leasing

Competition

3

Page 4: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Global economic

growth

Passenger growth

continuing

Aircraft demand strong

Access to financing

Today’s Market

Today’s market: clear for takeoff

Source: IATA Fact Sheet Industry Statistics, December 2017; Percentages for system-wide global commercial airlines

4

+7.5% 2017E

+5.7% 2014

+5.2% 2013

+7.3% 2015

+7.4% 2016

Global passenger growth, rpk %

Page 5: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Periods of turbulence Historical global airline profitability as reported by IATA

Airline profitability driven by passenger traffic and low oil prices

5

Net

pro

fit ($

billi

on)

($30)

($20)

($10)

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F

Source: IATA Fact Sheet Industry Statistics, December 2017

Page 6: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

Helped rejuvenate airline

balance sheets

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

Key market drivers Factors contributing to healthy demand for air travel

Oil1 Interest Rates2

USD Strength3 Passenger Travel4

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

Source: 1Bloomberg as of 1/10/18, ICE Brent/$BBL; 2Bloomberg as of 1/10/18, 10 year UST; 3Bloomberg as of 1/10/18, DXY Index; 4World Bank World Development Indicators as of 12/22/17

6

! Warning

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

'75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

Passengers carried (billion)Global Population

CAGR: 1.49%

CAGR: 5.37%

Page 7: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Evolving airline landscape Emergence of LCC/ULCC carriers

Illustrative example of low cost airlines launched since 2010

7

Source: Logos reflect the low cost airline or its parent/associated company

Page 8: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Evolving airline landscape Evaluating the impact of LCC/ULCC carriers

LCC/ULCC driving fares lower…

Average round-trip ticket price

…Resulting in unprecedented affordability

Market Share, Western Europe (%)

Worldwide passenger traffic is up… …As LCC/ULCC take share from legacy carriers

Source: Top left and top right charts: The Wall Street Journal article: How Budget Carriers Transformed the Airline Industry, August 2017, 2 Bottom left chart: IATA Fact Sheet Industry Statistics December 2017, 3Bottom right chart: Financial Times article: European airlines face more cuts and consolidation, October 2017

8

2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5

2.7 2.9

3.0 3.2

3.3 3.6

3.8

4.1

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

Sch

ed. P

asse

nger

num

bers

(bn)

Page 9: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Production rates Aggressive ordering and aspirational backlogs

Example of significant OEM orders from LCC/ULCC carriers

Are these orders/production rates sustainable?

Source: 1Boeing and Airbus; Includes Boeing unfilled orders through 12/31/17 and Airbus orders net deliveries as of 12/31/2017, 2JPMorgan research December 2017, based on Flight Ascend analysis of announced production rates

9

Driving expected increased production rates

Pla

nned

Ann

ual P

rodu

ctio

n2

Regional Jet Single Aisle Twin Aisle

Boe

ing/

Airb

us o

rder

s1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Page 10: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Availability of capital Abundant liquidity today…what about tomorrow?

Wide variety of financing

choices currently available

Significant financing

requirements to support

industry fleet growth will

require these capital

sources

Leasing Companies Tax Equity

Capital Markets Insurance

Commercial Banks Airframe & Engine Manufacturers

Export Credit Agencies New Sources of Funding

Alternative Asset Managers

Source: Boeing Capital, Current Aircraft Finance Market Outlook 2018 1 Assumes lessor fleet ownership remains at ~40%

10

$56 $61 $69 $74 $76

$83 $92

$103 $111 $113

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F

Fund

ing

need

ed ($

billi

ons)

Lessor share Funding needed from other sources1

>$800 billion of capital needed over next five years

to support industry fleet growth

Other sources:

>$500bn

Lessors1:

$335bn

Page 11: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Shift to new generation aircraft Technology risk is present in old and new generation aircraft

New Generation

11

Old Generation

- Obsolescence - Fuel economy - Maintenance

- Residual values - Customer experience

- Technical issues - Delivery delays - Airline adoption

- Production scale/availability

Page 12: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Know your counterparty ALC is a long-term partner for the airline industry

$43 billion Total assets owned and on order

659 Total aircraft owned, managed and on order

91% Order book placed through

2019

$23 billion Contracted & committed

fleet rentals1

High level of capitalization and significant liquidity

Scale

Visibility

Stability

Highest rated standalone aircraft lessor (S&P: BBB / Fitch: BBB / Kroll: A-)

Note: Values and information included above as of September 30, 2017 unless noted otherwise 1 Includes $9.6 billion of contracted minimum future rentals on our existing fleet and $13.7 billion committed rentals on our order book

12

Page 13: Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin · 2018-01-22 · Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dublin Challenges Ahead Steven F. Udvar-Házy ... • deterioration of economic conditions

Questions?