Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri; The Coordinator 2014 Part 29-Oil-1By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Economic warfare is charted as the short cut to a jihad victory: the Great game all over. Bin Laden death calms among other areas worries over Central Asian oil. Jihad for Oil ; Is

Oil the Next Front in Al-Qaida's War? This is follow-on of my 2013 Part 17.

First of all you have to understand the power of oil. Reminding his followers that "the biggest reason for our enemies' control over our lands is to steal our oil," bin Laden exhorted jihadists in December 2004 to "give everything you can to stop the greatest theft of oil in history." As Osama himself told CNN in 1997, "the U.S. wants to occupy our countries, steal our resources, impose agents on us to rule us and then wants us to agree to all this. If we refuse to do so, it says we are terrorists... Wherever we look, we find the U.S. as the leader of terrorism and crime in the world." Bin Laden's message resonated throughout the Muslim world. But U.S. officials remained deaf to its meaning, and continued obsessed with al Qaeda and its Taliban allies. And in (Full text1) bin Laden's 'letter to America' he made it clear again; You steal our wealth and oil at paltry prices because of you international influence and military threats. This theft is indeed the biggest theft ever witnessed by mankind in the history of the world. Even in his August 23, 1996 Fatwa he mentions: I would like here to alert my brothers, the Mujahideen, the sons of the nation, to protect this (oil) wealth and not to include it in the battle as it is a great Islamic wealth and a large economical power essential for the soon to be established Islamic state, by Allah’s Permission and Grace. // We also warn the aggressors, the USA, against burning this Islamic wealth (a crime which they may commit in order to prevent it, at the end of the war, from falling in the hands of its legitimate owners and to cause economic damages to the competitors of the USA in Europe or the Far East, particularly Japan which is the major consumer of the oil of the region). Moreover, the presence of the world largest oil reserve makes the land of the two Holy Places an important economical power in the Islamic world. And he warns: An internal war is a great mistake, no matter what reasons are there for it. The presence of the occupier-the USA- forces will control the outcome of the battle for the benefit of the international Kufr, his foresight to today’s events; AQ v.s. IS caliphate, Cees

LWJ September 29, 2014 Abu Muhammad al Julani, the emir of the Al Nusrah Front, has released an audio message discussing the US-led airstrikes in Syria. Julani threatens civilians in the US and Europe, saying they should not be tricked into believing they are "safe from the strikes of the mujahideen" simply because Western leaders say that their "soldiers will not be on the ground, and that they will strike from afar." The battle will come "to the heart of your land, for the Muslims will not stand as spectators watching their sons bombed and killed in their lands, while you stay safe in your lands," Julani says when addressing Western civilians, according to SITE's translation. "So the tax of the war will not be paid by your rulers alone, but you are the ones who will pay the lion's share of it. Therefore, you must protect yourselves from this war by standing against the decision of your rulers, and preventing them from dragging tragedies upon you and your countries through all methods." "You were told before by Sheikh Osama bin Laden, may Allah accept him, several times, that the only solution to prevent war with the mujahideen is taking your hand away from the region completely, and lifting your support and protection of the Jews, and to stop stealing the resources of the Muslims, and to leave us alone with the rulers of the area, settling the

1 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/nov/24/theobserver Full text: bin Laden's 'letter to America' (d) You steal our wealth and oil at paltry prices because of you international influence and military threats. This theft is indeed the biggest theft ever witnessed by mankind in the history of the world.

scores with them," Julani says, according to SITE's translation. Julani draws on al Qaeda's view of history in making these arguments, portraying the conflict in Syria as part of a centuries-long war between the West and Islamic countries. "We defeated your Roman empire before, and also your adversaries from the Persians, and we expelled the Jews from the Peninsula of Muhammad, Allah's peace and blessings be upon him, and with our feet we stepped on the outskirts of Paris and Moscow, where the Jizyah [tax on non-Muslims] for 80 years was paid to the Muslims," Julani says.

RAND March 3, 2006, The Threat of Oil Jihad2 "Al-Qaida of the Arab Peninsula," an offshoot of al-Qaida central led by Osama bin Laden, claimed responsibility for this first attack on a Saudi oil facility and vowed it would stage more attacks. In the past, al-Qaida refrained from attacking Saudi Arabia's oil facilities because it hoped to eventually gain control of them. Al-Qaida wanted to use oil revenues to fund the continuing jihad after the Americans had been driven out of the kingdom and the Saudi regime collapsed.

Here are a few quotes from the Resurgence article titled “On Targeting the Heel of Western Economies.3”“Any of their ships are legitimate targets, but exports are the key to any economy, including the economies of the West,” Gadahn wrote. “The mujahideen must seek to deprive the enemies of the precious oil and mineral resources they are stealing from us and using to fuel their war machine, by sabotaging crusader-run oil wells and mines in Islamic lands and destroying pipelines before the oil reaches the coast and falls into enemy hands, and by sinking their supertankers and sabotaging their oil rigs in enemy waters, and in the process, ruining their lucrative fishing industries….” “Meanwhile, Muslims must continue to boycott American, Crusader and Jewish businesses and products, from cars and computers to candies and clothing, and we must produce, purchase and support local alternatives whenever possible. Major Western companies and multinational corporations like Walmart,

2 http://www.rand.org/blog/2006/03/the-threat-of-oil-jihad.html3 http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=184986

MacDonald’s, Proctor and Gamble, Microsoft, Nestle and Unilever are symbols of the rampant Crusader globalization which is characterized by the exploitation of the weak and impoverished, and the destruction of local economies. It is our duty as Muslims and as Mujahideen to stop this at all costs.” “Muslims must avoid as much as possible banks and financial markets, because not only are they based on the so-called “interest”, which is nothing but usury, whose users, abusers and beneficiaries Allah has threatened with war (see al-Quran 2:275-281). Banks are also an integral part of the Western-run global economic system which has become a tool for enslaving the Muslims and other oppressed people of the world. Instead, Muslims must start to make efforts to reinstate gold, silver and other basic commodities as the standards and mediums of exchange, and begin experimenting with barter systems as initial steps on the way to attaching the industrial production base to a local Islamic economy and ridding ourselves of the enemy’s national and global economies. Reinstating gold as a medium of exchange is also necessary for ridding ourselves of the usurious fractional reserve banking system that creates money from nothing, ties our markets and industries to the economies of the West, puts us at the mercy of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization, and makes us vulnerable to international sanctions, economic embargoes, and countless other forms of interference in our society, culture, governmentand religion.“ “Some might ask, “Is it reasonable to ask Muslims to try to free themselves from the clutches of the international financial system before the defeat of Kufr Internationale and establishment of the greater Islamic state?” It’s perfectly reasonable to encourage the Muslims to begin to prepare themselves financially and economically for the victory of Islam, the same way we encourage them to prepare, organize and educate themselves religiously, militarily and politically in order to pave the way for the establishment of the Islamic state! Today more than ever before, Muslims have begun to understand that they will never be able to achieve the economic prosperity and political independence they aspire to without first freeing their countries from the usurious global financial system and the disproportionately large influence of international donors.”We’ve colored a few of the critical points. From these, we draw some important conclusions:

1. The primary focus of this article is an attack on oil infrastructure and shipping. The goal is clearly to harm Western economies.

2. There is also a direct threat against major Western companies, especially those that do business in the Middle East.

3. There is an implied threat against the global financial and banking system, which they blame for enslaving Muslims.

4. There is a push to use gold instead of the petrodollar. It is well understood (and has been previously stated by al Qaeda) that such a move is designed to also collapse the American dollar.

5. It is implied that the Western financial system will collapse and that is an essential requirement for the ultimate victory of Islam.

Now, match these calls for economic jihad with what was written in the al Qaeda timeline: under the heading Recuperation and Possession of Power to Create Change (Resurgence):

The match is almost perfect. Interestingly, however, the goal was to accomplish these attacks immediately following what could only be described as a plan for the so-called Arab Spring for the overthrow of Arab regimes. Al Qaeda was clearly successful in some areas such as Libya and made efforts in Syria, Egypt, and elsewhere. Once the economic warfare had been waged, the next step was to declare the Islamic State. That was scheduled for 2013-2016. The only problem? Certain elements of al Qaeda wanted to declare the IS early BEFORE the collapse of the U.S. dollar while the leadership wanted to wait. This created a - temporary - rift between al Qaeda and IS/ISIS/ISIL. Many believe the rift had to do with tactics. There was speculation that al Qaeda disowned ISIS to gain favor with larger Muslim communities. Some insiders, however, suspect it was more timing and leadership. Regardless, it is worth noting that the rift has been closing rapidly. And, with the economic jihad underway, al Qaeda will no doubt seek to incorporate the ISIS ground success into the larger Islamic State goals. The primary issue may well have been timing.

Jihad for Oil 26th November 2014 When bin Laden dramatically addressed the United States in a video released on the eve of the 2004 elections, he boasted of his "bleed-until-

bankruptcy" plan for defeating America4. His focus on the economy is a primary reason that the terrorist leader reversed his original pledge to keep oil off limits as a military target. In his 1996 declaration of war against America, bin Laden said that oil was not part of the battle because it was "a large economical power essential for the soon to be established Islamic state," but in a December 2004 audiotape he reversed this promise. Declaring Western countries' purchase of oil at then-market prices "the greatest theft in history," he stated: "Focus your operations on it [oil production], especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]." Bin Laden's deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri called for al-Qaeda fighters to "concentrate their campaigns on the stolen oil of the Muslims" in a December 2005 video. Likewise, Sawt al-Jihad, the online magazine of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, claimed in February 2007 that cutting the U.S.'s oil supplies "would contribute to the ending of the American occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan." SAUDI ARABIA IS THE MOST critical oil-producing country that terrorists have targeted. Saudi efforts are vital to stability of the worldwide oil supply because that country holds 25 percent of the globe's proven reserves, produces almost 10 million barrels per day, and is the only country that can maintain excess production capacity of around 1.5 million barrels per day (a "swing reserve") to keep world prices stable. However, Saudi production is particularly vulnerable to attack because it depends on a limited number of hubs. Two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's oil is processed at the Abqaiq facility, and there are two main export terminals: Ras

4 From Cees. Remember what Abu-Mus‘ab al-Suri, ‘Umar ‘Abd al-Hakim had to say regarding the importance of “There are (5) important naval straits in the globe…… .in his Dec 2004 published manifesto…..The Call for Global Islamic Resistance. Al-Suri started writing "The Call for Global Islamic Resistance" in 1997 in Kabul, and finalized its current version in 2004. Abu Musab al-Suri's 1,600 page manifesto, constitutes an important window into contemporary jihadist thought and the historical evolution of jihadi movements. The book was published in December 2004 online and is still available on a few Jihadist Websites for download.Page 1384] Third: naval straits and main water crossings:There are (5) important naval straits in the globe, four of which are located in Arab and Muslim land and the fifth in America which is the Panama Canal. These straits are:1. The strait of Hormuz, the oil gate of Arabian Gulf – Persian2. The Suez Canal in Egypt3. Bab al-Mandeb between Yemen and the horn of Africa4. Gibraltar Straits in al-Maghrib al-Aqsa [TC: Morocco]The majority of the Western World economy, its commerce and oil pass through these water crossings. The Military Fleets, air carriers, the missiles of death, they all pass through these crossing and they are targeting our children and women. We have to shut down these crossings so that these campaigns would leave. This could be achieved by targeting American ships and ships of their allied countries. They could be closed through mining and sinking ships, or by threatening naval passage through martyrdom operations, hijacking and by force if possible.[Page 1018] One of the things the Ottomans were proud of is that they used to prevent Christian ships from crossing the Bab el-Mandib strait from Yemen to the Gulf of Suez because they would be passing near by the sea of Jedda, which is one of the holy areas. They considered the entire Red Sea as holy and forbidden to Christians! The Ottoman ships would take the goods from the Christian traders at Yemen and transport it for them to the Gulf of Suez and give it to them at the Mediterranean.[Page 100] Robbing the Muslims' Treasury and their Foundational Wealth; If we were to add the fact that the Islamic world extending east from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Philippines, to the coasts of the Atlantic ocean and west to the Morocco coasts, Mauritania, and Senegal, and from central Asia, the Caucuses, the Balkans, North Africa to South Asia, the Indonesian islands, and south to the center of sub-Saharan Africa ; if we were to know that this Islamic world owns a tremendous strategic reserve of mineral resources, since a number of its governments are considered among the top exporters of important industrial metals; and if we add to that the agricultural and zoological fortunes abundant to these regions, in addition to what it provides from land, sea, and air transportation resources as well as the transit rights for the area, which contains four of the five most important international naval straits and passageways, the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandab, Suez canal, and Gibraltar, and its skies are transportation nodes between the four geographical directions in the world; if we considered all of this, we would be amazed at how this region contains countries which top the lists of poverty, ignorance, and illiteracy in the world!

Tanura and Ras al-Ju'aymah. Terrorists have in fact directed their efforts toward attacks against these hubs. In September 2005, following a 48-hour shootout with a cell in the seaport of al-Dammam, police discovered forged documents that would have given the terrorists access to some of Saudi Arabia's key oil and gas facilities. Terrorists affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula also obtained sensitive access to facilities for a February 2006 attack on the Abqaiq refinery, which is operated by the state-owned Saudi Aramco. Though local news sources played down the attack (one even described it as proof of "how tight and impenetrable the existing Saudi security system is"), written evidence submitted to Britain's House of Commons by Neil Partrick, a senior analyst in The Economist Group's Economist Intelligence Unit, paints a different picture. Noting that the attackers wore Aramco uniforms, drove Aramco vehicles, and were able to enter the facility's first perimeter fence, Partrick concludes that either the terrorists "had inside assistance from members of the formal security operation of the state-owned energy company" or else security was so lax "that these items could be obtained and entry to the site obtained." Either possibility is a concern. Could a catastrophic attack against Saudi production succeed? Such an attack could be executed using tactics that al-Qaeda has successfully employed in the past. For example, it would be difficult to safeguard facilities against an airplane used as a guided missile, à la 9/11. Thus, former CIA case officer Robert Baer wrote in his 2003 book Sleeping with the Devil: "A single jumbo jet with a suicide bomber at the controls, hijacked during takeoff from Dubai and crashed into the heart of Ras Tanura, would be enough to bring the world's oil-addicted economies to their knees, America's along with them." The Abqaiq refinery that was targeted in February 2006 is also a critical point of vulnerability. If a major attack is successfully executed in one of these locations, the reduced worldwide oil supply would be joined by an inflated risk premium. Julian Lee, a senior energy analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London, told the Guardian in 2004 that following a significant loss of Saudi oil , "it would be difficult to put an upper limit on the kind of panic reaction you would see in the global oil markets." The ramifications would be not only economic but also military: Sawt al-Jihad may be correct that such an attack could doom U.S. ventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. In addition to catastrophic attacks, terrorists can undertake disruptive attacks against specific nodes. The recent activities of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) show the effect that disruptive attacks can have. Saudi Arabia pledged to produce an extra 200,000 barrels of oil per day beginning in July 2008 to curb record prices, yet MEND and its copycats knocked more than that offline in a single week: an attack on Shell's Bonga field coupled with two attacks on Chevron's Abiteve Olero crude oil line cut Nigeria's output by about 400,000 bpd. Though the Nigerian facilities will be repaired, this demonstrates how disruptive attacks can scotch the market's supply expectations. THE SITUATION IS GROWING more rather than less perilous: Gal Luft and Anne Korin of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security have noted that growing worldwide demand has reduced OPEC's spare capacity from seven million barrels a day in 2002 to only two million today (less than 2.5 percent of the market). "As a result," they write, "the oil market today resembles a car without shock absorbers: the tiniest bump can send a passenger to the ceiling." Moreover, global consumption is only expected to increase: the world is projected to have 1.25 billion cars on the road in 2030, up from 700 million today. A major terrorist attack against the oil supply would dramatically change the global order, in ways that most policymakers have probably never contemplated. The threat of terrorism thus adds urgency to current discussions about alternatives to oil. - See more at: http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/jihad-for-oil/#sthash.WU4imFAm.dpuf

Al Qaeda Targets Oil Tankers, Sea Lanes New call to wage economic jihad against U.S.Bill Gertz October 28, 2014, Al Qaeda is urging jihadists to conduct attacks on U.S. and foreign oil tankers and strategic sea lanes in a new global campaign of economic warfare against the United States, according to the terrorist group’s latest English-language magazine…. Retired Lt. Gen. Jerry Boykin, a former Special Forces commando and undersecretary of defense for intelligence during the George W. Bush administration, said Islamic terrorists are keenly aware of American reliance on Mideast oil. “They know that our economy is fragile and can be devastated by sudden increases in the global oil prices,” Boykin said in an email. “It is obvious that they will try to attack our weaknesses and oil is clearly one of our major vulnerabilities.” The article is another indication that Islamists “are indeed an enemy and they have in fact declared war on America,” Boykin said. Kevin Freeman, an expert on economic warfare, said al Qaeda as early as 2005 outlined a timeline for its war against the West that included fomenting an Arab uprising and then launching an economic warfare campaign. “It has always been an economic war,” Freeman said. “From the first attacks on the World Trade Center until now, al Qaeda has used an economic warfare playbook modeled on the Chinese doctrine of unrestricted warfare.” Freeman said the al Qaeda magazine articles bolster the findings of a report to the Pentagon in 2009 on economic warfare outlining terrorists’ use of the tactic of attacking oil targets. “Our enemies know that stopping the flow of oil, crashing our stock market, or collapsing the dollar are the paths to America’s destruction,” he said. “The al Qaeda timeline has, since at least 2005, planned a new caliphate and Islamic State aimed against the West and Israel,” he added. “To accomplish this, they knew even back then, required an attack on Western economies.” Freeman said the United States has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on weapons systems but has ignored repeated credible evidence of economic attacks and threats against our financial infrastructure and power grid. The al Qaeda threat to oil shipments also underscores the need to end America’s reliance on foreign oil supplies with North American oil production, Freeman said. “We also have to shore up our financial infrastructure, protect the dollar, and guard our power grid,” said Freeman, author of a book on the subject, Game Plan. “Individuals must prepare their investment portfolios for resilience in an economic war.” All of this makes the point. This is a battle for Western Civilization. They are on a timeline. And, our economy is in the cross-hairs.

Industry official says flow of oil for pipeline, which links to export terminal on Red Sea, has come to "complete halt". 26 Nov 2014 The 435km pipeline, which links the Safir oil fields in Marib province, east of the capital, to the Ras Isa terminal, near the port of Hodeida, has been a repeated target of sabotage. Attacks on infrastructure cost the impoverished country $4.75bn over the two years from March 2011 to March 2013, according to government figures.

Yemeni security forces clashed with and captured AQAP militant, Rushdie Abdullah Baaweidan, also known as Abu Abdullah al Hadrami, and the rest of his seven-man AQAP cell in Halfun, Hadramawt on June 25. An anonymous security source reported that the AQAP cell planned on bombing oil tankers and oil installations in Hadramawt, Yemen.

3 July, Fighters from the Islamic State group have seized control of Syria's largest oil field on the Iraqi border, forcing the withdrawal of rival fighters, Syrian activists say. The Nusra Front, which has controlled al-Omar oil field since late last year, abandoned the facility on Thursday without firing a bullet, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. By seizing the al-Omar oil field, Islamic State, previously called the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), now controls most oil and gas fields in the eastern province of Deir Az Zor and the surrounding countryside. "Islamic State took control of the al-Omar oil field" located

north of Mayadeen, the Syrian Observatory said, adding that the strategic town also was under the Islamic State's control since dawn on Thursday. Al Jazeera's Rula Amin, reporting from Beirut in neighbouring Lebanon, said the Islamic State now controlled "a huge expanse of land about five times the size of Lebanon" and oil assets that could produce 35,000 barrels a day.

ISIS advances on oil fields in Salahaddin, DiyalaBy BILL ROGGIO June 26, 2014 While the blitzkrieg of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham and its allies that saw the groups take control of Mosul on June 10 and quickly approach the outskirts of Samarra has slowed considerably, the advance has not stopped. ISIS continues to attack in Diyala and Salahaddin provinces, and has set its sights on oil infrastructure. Yesterday, ISIS took control of the Ajeel oil wells, which lie east of Tikrit and Bayji in Salahaddin provinces. There are four wells listed in the area: Ajeel, Ajeel 6, Ajeel 24, and Ajeel North 1, and they put out an estimated 28,000 barrels of oil per day. In addition, a natural gas field, also called Ajeel, is situated near the wells. Today ISIS took control of the town of Mansouriyat al-Jabal, which is just north of the city of Miqdadiyah in Diyala province. An oil well known as Mansuriyah 1 is operated near the town. The status of Iraq's largest oil refinery, the Bayji facility in Salahaddin province, is now questionable, as ISIS is said to control large areas of the sprawling facility. And across the border in Syria, ISIS is said to have taken control of the Al Omar oil field and facility in Deir al Zour province near the town of Al Mayadin. Additionally, ISIS is said to be laying siege to Balad Air Base, a major Iraqi Air Force facility just north of Baghdad, as well as advancing on the Haditha Dam, which produces power and controls the flow of water to the south. Keep in mind that ISIS is unlikely to destroy the oil facilities, the dam, the airbase, and any other infrastructure that may come under its control. ISIS' ultimate goal is to establish an Islamic state in Iraq and Syria (hence its name, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham). ISIS profits greatly from revenue produced from oil facilities, and needs other infrastructure to manage its state. ISIS is known to have "oil experts" to help with the extraction, transportation, and sale of oils. If, by some chance, Iraqi forces are able to regroup and advance on ISIS' newly-held infrastructure, only then may the group destroy it as part of a scorched earth tactic of retreat.

Iraq 21 June 2014, "Baghdad's Sunni fighters: we are ready for zero hour: At zero hour, we start our fight by assassinating all the spies and agents. Our neighbourhood, like every Sunni neighbourhood, has many spies and informers. When we assassinate the leaders, the ranks will collapse." Sunni rebels have captured Iraq's biggest oil refinery after overnight clashes with Iraqi security forces, according to local sources, but a military spokesman denied it. A journalist in Saladin province told Al Jazeera that Sunni rebels, led by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), had seized the

refinery at Baiji, 43kms north of Tikrit, on Saturday. An unknown number of soldiers had been taken prisoner by the rebels after the fall of the facility, the journalist said. The oil ministry did not comment on the report, and referred all enquiries to the defence ministry.Rebels had withdrawn from the refinery on Friday after heavy clashes and retreated to Baiji's main town, which they already control. There are many men willing to start the fight again but the problem is there is no fear," he said. People were not sufficiently worried about the situation, he said, and did not realise there was no way back. "If we string two Shia on

poles for everyone to see, the militias will retaliate and all the men in the area will be forced to carry arms. This is how we start bringing our men together." A broad-shouldered Sunni commander next to him leaned forward and assured his friend, saying insurgents had set up sleeping cells and were waiting for zero hour to take the war into the heart of the Iraqi capital. "At zero hour, we start our fight by assassinating all the spies and agents. Our neighbourhood, like every Sunni neighbourhood, has many spies and informers. When we assassinate the leaders, the ranks will collapse." A leading role was given to the former army officers and Ba'ath party members. "Many factions are all under the command of army officers," said the commander. "Isis are not the only people fighting, but the Shia insist on seeing everyone as Isis and don't want to see the difference." Patiently he laid out his plan in front of the other man, who appeared unconvinced. "We don't do any move without taking orders and permissions from the leadership of the military council," the commander said. "We start activating when the rebels enter the belt of Baghdad. The areas will fall one after the other. We are ready to start the fight now but we don't act yet, each step we calculate long before. "Isis will clear the path for us and we will take over. Our men are toppling provinces now and we wait for them."

20 June, The US should leave the protection of the Maliki government to Iran and focus instead on fortifying neighbouring Jordan, according to Jay Garner the retired US general who first headed the interim government in Iraq following the US led invasion in 2003. Speaking to the BBC Radio 4's Today programme Garner warned that sending 300 US military advisers to Iraq risked "mission creep" and he cautioned against any US air strikes. He said: "We have failed to calculate that this [the gains by Isis insurgents in Iraq] is a far greater problem for the Iranians. They cannot afford to have a Sunni jihadist terrorist group on their border. I think the Iranians should solve this problem not us. If you want to apply air power Maliki has air power, the Syrians have air power, and Iranians have air power. And they all have a common foe – Isis. So let them all use their air power against their common foe and not us."Garner was also highly critical of Maliki and said he despised him. "We have no responsibility to Maliki. Neither Maliki nor his government has done one thing to cooperate with us for eight years. He has been an Iranian puppet for eight years. If we have any responsibility it is to the Kurds in the north. They fought with us in 2003 against Saddam Hussein ... I would help arm the Kurds." Garner said the US should turn its attention to protect Jordan from Isis insurgents. "I would take a long look at Jordan and begin to really fortify [King] Abdullah because he's next I think. He's the next target on the playbook of the Jihadists

Gaza rockets aim at Kurdish oil route via Israel. More security for Ashkelon and Eilat depots DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 25, 2014, The Trans-Israel Pipeline from Ashkelon to Eilat is the real target of the increased Grad rocket fire on Ashkelon and nearby coastal areas, military sources tell DEBKAfile. Its momentum has quickened since the launch this month of a transit route for oil exports from the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq via Turkey and Israel.  Islamic Jihad and other Salafist militants in Gaza are in cahoots with the Al Qaeda affiliated Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis operating out of Sinai. All are potential sources of the rocket fire and certainly have an eye on civilian targets, but the sources say the uptick of the last few days is a clear attempt to take out the new Kurdish export route. (see attached Special Map) Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda in Sinai are strange bedfellows – their backers, Iran and ISIS, are at loggerheads in Iraq. But they share an interest in preventing Israel from using its small oil ports, Ashkelon and Eilat, to become a major conduit for Kurdish oil. Through its geography and infrastructure, Israel has quickly become a key element in the war in Iraq and its future.

Iran wants to put a stop to oil sales out of the northern Iraqi oilfields near Kirkuk, while ISIS considers Iraqi oil to be an important war spoil and strategic asset, likewise the oilfields in eastern Syria. ISIS is already using captured Syrian oilfields as a major source of income, bringing in some $1 billion per year. With control of Iraq’s oilfields, refineries, and pipelines, the Al Qaeda-affiliated group could easily double or triple its annual oil income. Israel’s role puts a damper on these plans. Both Tehran, which has its own designs on Kirkuk, and ISIS, were amazed to discover the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had signed onto a combined Kurdish-Turkish-Israeli concern for the new Kurdish export route. No time was lost for this transaction after the Kurdish peshmerga moved into Kirkuk as Iraqi troops fled the oncoming ISIS fighters. The crude flows to Ceyhan, Turkey’s port city on the Mediterranean. From there it is loaded onto tankers that sail to Ashkelon, where the cargo is unloaded either into storage or poured into the 254-kilometer Trans-Israel Pipeline. Traditionally the pipeline has served companies from Russia and Central Asia who use Israel as a middleman for their sales to Asian countries. But with the arrival of the first Kurdish tankers in the past few weeks, the pipeline has begun to operate at its capacity of 20 million tons per year. Our sources report that Kurdistan, which exports 120,000 barrels of oil a day, has already sent 2 million barrels of oil to Israel via Ceyhan. Most of this shipment is due to arrive in Ashkelon and Eilat in the coming days. Oil industry insiders believe that Irbil pays Turkey and Israel a dollar each for every barrel that passes through their territory. Now that the tanker channel between Turkey and Israel has opened in the service of oil, Western military sources say that the two countries’ navies have boosted their cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean to secure the channel, the tankers, and their precious cargo. They add that Israel has put special security measures in place to bolster its defenses against terror and rocket attacks in Eilat and the Gulf of Aqaba, lest newly arrived Iranian and ISIS elements in Sinai target Eilat’s oil terminal and the tankers full of Kurdish oil.

Turmoil in Iraq Spells Trouble for Oil Markets The Wall Street JournalJune 23, 2014 The Iraqi oil patch has been a coveted prize for most of the past century. The same concerns over oil supplies expressed in the wake of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's capture of key Iraqi cities were around during World War I. But Iraq's oil is even more needed now than it was 100 years ago, and while the turmoil there is having only a modest impact on today's oil market, it could sow the seeds for painful oil shocks in the future. On the eve of the 2003 Iraq war, oil experts held that Iraqi production could quickly be restored to the pre-1990 level of about three million barrels a day and ramped up to as much as six million barrels a day by 2010 and seven to eight million by 2020. Things didn't turn out that way.

Political instability, corruption and the lack of an adequate regulatory framework turned away multinational oil companies. Foreign investment in the oil and gas sector came at a trickle. Iraq's production was so uncertain that even OPEC exempted the country from its quota system. Yet since 2012 it has seemed that Iraq might finally be turning a corner. Investment started to pick up, especially from China—Iraqi reserves constitute 26% of the oil assets of China's national oil companies. While Iraq today produces a little more than the three million barrels a day it produced before 2003, it was viewed by some as the next oil frontier. Last month the International Energy Agency noted that "in the long term Iraq is set to become one of the main pillars of global oil output, and will also become the largest contributor to global oil export growth." Iraq was expected to produce nine million barrels a day by 2035, surpassing Saudi Arabia as the region's largest exporter. Now the ISIS takeover of large swaths of oil-rich Iraqi territory threatens this hope. The potential implications for the world economy are serious. Other than the North American shale-oil boom, which has brought an extra three million barrels a day online over the past several years, there has been very little good news in the oil market. Saudi Arabia's production is stagnant at around 10 million barrels a day and its political future is in doubt. The country's gluttonous oil consumption—with only 28 million people, Saudi Arabia is the world's fifth-largest oil consumer—leaves less and less available for export. Meanwhile, Nigeria is facing problematic elections next year that could blow the top off an already shaky political system, Venezuela's oil industry is on life support, post-Gadhafi Libya is faltering, and the outputs of Russia and Iran are clouded by sanctions. What is at stake is not only the loss of Iraq's current output but its ability to secure the investments necessary to deliver the additional six million barrels a day the market is counting on. Today over 80% of the global investment in upstream oil and gas goes to replace depleting fields, and the Middle East accounts for only 15% of the world's overall upstream investment. With Iraq sinking deeper into protracted civil war, investment will fall even more, creating fuel shortages down the road. The loss of Iraq requires a three-pronged strategy to deal with the crude gap and insulate the global economy from ruinous oil shocks. First, the U.S. must commit to sustaining the North American oil boom for as long as possible. This not only means drilling and fracking domestically with the same vigor, but also working with Mexico to assist its energy reforms and open its offshore deep-water areas to exploration. Odd as it may sound, the future of the world's economy may be in the hands of shale-oil-rich North Dakota and Mexico City. Second, the U.S. should do its utmost to prevent disruptions and increase output in other major producers like Nigeria, Libya, Angola and Kazakhstan. It can do this by helping Kazakhstan expedite the development of its giant Kashagan oil field, working with Europe to restore stability in Libya, engaging with Nigeria to prevent post-election instability, and supporting Angola's bid for a U.N. Security Council seat in 2015-16. Third, the U.S. should join with China, the world's largest automobile manufacturer, in an effort to significantly increase the number of vehicles that can run on fuels made from natural gas and coal, resources both countries have in abundance. With minor adaptations to vehicles, natural gas and coal can be put to use in the form of alcohol fuels such as methanol and ethanol. These can be easily blended with gasoline and hence reduce transportation's dependence on oil. For the foreseeable future, oil will continue to be the lifeblood of the global economy. Our hope is that the turmoil in Iraq subsides and its oil fields reach their full potential. Meanwhile, the least we can do to protect the world economy from future oil shocks is to keep the price of oil at bay by allowing drivers to switch on the fly from gasoline to non-petroleum fuels.

Regards Cees