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Alaska 2020: How Many Jobs (and Where) and How Many People?
January 31, 2013CTE Annual Work Session
Dan Robinson
Research and Analysis Chief
Alaska Department of Labor
and Workforce Development
How Many Jobs?
How Many Jobs?
362,159
How Many People?
How Many People?
802,764
Questions?
Numbers Need Context …
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
56.5
93.1
169.4
238.1
283.8
325.1
362.2
Alaska Employment (in thousands)
Numbers Need Context …
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020
64.8%
82.0%
40.6%
19.2%14.6%
11.4%
AK Employment Percent Change
How Does Alaska Employment Growth Compare to U.S.?
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Alaska U.S.
The Details Behind the 37,000 New Jobs: Growth by Industry
Federal GovernmentInformation
UtilitiesManufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, and RecreationWholesale Trade
Other Services (Except Government)State GovernmentLocal Government
Mining (Including Oil and Gas)Admin & Support & Waste Mgt and Remediation Svc
ConstructionTransportation and Warehousing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesFinancial Activities (Including Real Estate)
Accommodation and Food ServicesEducational Services, Public & Private
Retail TradeHealth Care and Social Assistance, Public & Private
-428101155
441535590
1,0641,1281,2661,3121,4281,6061,6921,9151,966
3,3953,582
4,038 12,940
Another Way to Look at It …
Source: Alaska Department of Labor andWorkforce Development, Research and Analysis Section
Health Care and Social Assistance, Public &
Private , 12,940
Retail Trade, 4,038
Educational Services, Public & Private, 3,582
Accommodation and Food
Services, 3,395Financial Activities (Including Real
Estate), 1,966Total Government,
1,966Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services, 1,915
Mining (Including Oil and Gas), 1,312
Other Services (Except Government), 1,064Wholesale Trade, 590
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and
Remediation Services, 1,428
Construction, 1,606
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, 535
Transportation and Warehousing, 1,692
Information, 101
Utilities, 155Manufacturing,
441
Employment Growth, % Change, 2010-2020
12
Occupations with the Largest Increase, 2010-2020
Alaska’s Fastest Growing Occupations, 2010 - 2020
Alaska’s Jobs by Level of Education, Projected 2020
Bachelor's degree14.8%
(51,910)
Associate's degree6.2%
(21,869)Postsecondary non-degree award
4.4%(15,439)
Doctoral or professional degree2.1%
(7,542)Master's degree1.5%
(5,398)
Alaska’s Top Jobs by Level of EducationProjected 2020
Bachelor's degree34.2%
(23,108)
Associate's degree19.7%
(13,299)
Postsecondary non-degree
award4.7%
(3,181)
Doctoral or professional
degree3.7%
(2,535)
Master's degree2.2%
(1,464)
High school diploma
or equivalent34.2%
(23,119)
Less than high school1.3%(899)
Top JobsAll Jobs
Alaska’s Jobs by Level of EducationProjected 2010-2020
Bachelor's
degree14.8%
Associate's degree
6.2%
Postsecondary non-
degree award4.4%
Doctoral or
professional
degree2.1%
Master's degree1.5%
Doctoral or professional
degree3.7% Master's
degree2.2%
Bachelor's degree
34.2%
Associate's degree
19.7%
Postsecondarynon-degree
award4.7%
High school
diploma or
equivalent
34.2%
Less than high school1.3%
Wages and Projected 2020 Employment for Alaska by Level of Education
$29,196
$110,683
$73,454
$76,671
$74,425
$52,314
$47,140
AnnualAverage2011 Wage
Projected Employment
Alaska’s Top Jobs, Projected 2020
Where the Openings Will Be
Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equip. OperatorsMaids and Housekeeping Cleaners
Stock Clerks and Order FillersChild Care Workers
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing ClerksConstruction Laborers
Customer Service RepresentativesReceptionists and Information Clerks
Food Preparation WorkersJanitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeepers
Office Clerks, GeneralRegistered Nurses
Waiters and WaitressesLaborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
Personal Care AidesTeacher Assistants
Combined Food Prep. and Serving Workers, Incl. Fast FoodMeat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers
Retail SalespersonsCashiers
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Growth OpeningsReplacement Openings
Number of openings
Highest Projected Job Openings, 2010 to 2020
Openings by Occupational Category2010 to 2020
Number of Openings
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section
Key Point …
• Economies as a whole are like cruise ships: complicated, heavy, and slow to change directions.
Now Let’s Talk Population …
A Population Picture Worth at Least a Thousand Words
Alaska’s Population Growth Has Resembled U.S.’s in Recent Decades
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-20200%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
AK Population Change U.S. Population Change
A Bonus – Alaska Training Provider Performance Report
A final thought …
• “It doesn’t matter what these students focus on, as long as they focus on it in a rigorous way.”
• “In survey after survey, employers seem to agree that the skill they want most in future workers is adaptability.”
- Article on skills gap in Chronicle of Higher Education (does it apply to CTE?)
Thank You
Sources for data:
• Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics• U.S. Census
[email protected]; 907-465-6040
