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8/14/2019 Alternative Energy - ( by Ph.D. Atta - Ur _ Rahman )
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Science & Technology ----Science & Technology ----
Imperatives for Socio-Imperatives for Socio-
Economic DevelopmentEconomic Development
Atta-ur-RahmanAtta-ur-RahmanPh.D. (Cambridge), Sc.D.Ph.D. (Cambridge), Sc.D.
(Cambridge)(Cambridge)
Federal MinisterFederal Minister
&&Chairman, Higher Education Commission ,Chairman, Higher Education Commission ,Government of PakistanGovernment of Pakistan
President, Pakistan Academy of SciencesPresident, Pakistan Academy of SciencesCoordinator General, COMSTECHCoordinator General, COMSTECH
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VISIONVISION
Economic development is no longerdependent on natural resources(eg.Japan,European countries)
KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGEhas now become the mainhas now become the maindriving force of world economies anddriving force of world economies andhence the basis of socio-economichence the basis of socio-economicdevelopmentdevelopment
INDUSTRIALIZATIONINDUSTRIALIZATIONis the key to highis the key to highGDP growth (through production & exportGDP growth (through production & exportof high value-added goods (engineeringof high value-added goods (engineering
goods,pharmaceuticals,IT,Biotechnology,goods,pharmaceuticals,IT,Biotechnology,etc.)etc.)
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The World Today
` Over 6 billion people inhabit the earth, an increase of 140
per cent over the past fifty years
` One Fifth of humanity survive on less than one dollar a
day
` About 1.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water
` 7.7 million children die before their first birthday
` 25% of 4,630 mammal species and 11% of 9,675 bird
species are on the verge of complete extinction
` 20-30% population of Sub-Saharan Africa is HIV positive.
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The World in Next 50Years` Population 9.5 Billion by 2050
` Fossil Fuel Resources 80% Reduction by 2050
` Rain Forests 45% Reduction by 2050
` Life Expectancy Closer to 100 years
` Urban Population More than 60% globally
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Living in a Changing
World-----the only constant is change
New biology is decoding the blue print of life,
learning to manage the placement and
expression of genes and mobilizing
microorganisms to do our work for the
production of new products
New innovations are altering and expanding
the notions of development.
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Living in a ChangingWorld
Technology is the great divider---the rich are getting richer and the
poor, poorer
World is inflicted with poverty,
hunger, disease, conflicts, violence,
& economic uncertainty
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Exciting HorizonsExciting Horizons
Genomics---plant and animal structureGenomics---plant and animal structure
The living cellcancer, ageingThe living cellcancer, ageing
Neuroscience, The human brain---the final frontier?Neuroscience, The human brain---the final frontier?
Apoptosis ,structure-function relationships---new species!!Apoptosis ,structure-function relationships---new species!!
Material Sciences (nano-science)Material Sciences (nano-science)
Alternative energy (Hydrogen fuel cells, biomass-AmsterdamAlternative energy (Hydrogen fuel cells, biomass-Amsterdam,wind, water, solar),wind, water, solar)
Robotics, machine intelligenceRobotics, machine intelligence
Dark matter---Higgs boson---birth of universe---black holesDark matter---Higgs boson---birth of universe---black holes
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NANOTECHNOLOGY
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MATERIAL SCIENCES
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
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SPACE
SCIENCES
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GDP OF ISLAMIC WORLDGDP OF ISLAMIC WORLD
THE TOTAL GDP OF ALL OIC MEMBERTHE TOTAL GDP OF ALL OIC MEMBERCOUNTRIES IS ONLY USD 1200bln---LESSCOUNTRIES IS ONLY USD 1200bln---LESSTHAN HALF OF GERMANY(USD 2500bln)THAN HALF OF GERMANY(USD 2500bln)AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF JAPANAND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF JAPAN
(USD 5000bln)!!!----INSPITE OF OUR(USD 5000bln)!!!----INSPITE OF OURHAVING OVER 70% OF THE WORLDSHAVING OVER 70% OF THE WORLDSENERGY RESOURCES AND A QUARTERENERGY RESOURCES AND A QUARTEROF THE WORLDS POPULATIONOF THE WORLDS POPULATION
JAPAN HAS VIRTUALLY NO NATURALJAPAN HAS VIRTUALLY NO NATURALRESOURCES BUT OVER 1000 UNIVERSITIESRESOURCES BUT OVER 1000 UNIVERSITIES(OVER 120 IN TOKYO ALONE)----IN CONTRAST(OVER 120 IN TOKYO ALONE)----IN CONTRASTONLY ABOUT 500 UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMICONLY ABOUT 500 UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMIC
WORLD!!WORLD!!
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Expenditure on Defense,Health and R & D (African OIC Countries)
3
2
0.1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Defense Health R & D
% of GDP
Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries
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Expenditure on Defense,Health and R & D (Arab OIC Countries)
7.1
1.250.2
0
24
6
8
Defens
e
Healt
h
R&D
% of GDP
Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries
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Strategy forStrategy forEconomic Development HE,S&TEconomic Development HE,S&T
11069.2Iran
13919.6Saudi Arabia
1524.4Norway
OIC Countries
95150Pakistan
18565.7Turkey
1745.3Denmark
2088.1Austria
24810.2Belgium
Knowledge Based Economies
GDP(Billion US$)Population(Million)Country
Source: Human Development Report 2001
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Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan -Transition from Agriculture to
Knowledge-Based Economies
1960 : Over 50% of GDP contributed by
Agriculture.
2000 : Only 5-10% of GDP contributed byAgriculture, Over 50% of GDPcontributed by Engineering Goods,Electronics, etc.
12
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It is possible for countries to catch up (eg. East AsianTigers, China etc.)
Chinas Strategy---the Five Pillars
c) Massive Human Resource Development
d) Highest priority to Science & Technology
e) Promotion of Hi-Tech Industries
f) Emphasis on Value-added Agricultureg) Self-reliance in Defense Manufacturing
Last two hundred years: One key lesson:
3
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In the new century, innovations in science andIn the new century, innovations in science andtechnology will be key not only to health of thetechnology will be key not only to health of the
environment but to miraculous improvements in theenvironment but to miraculous improvements in thequality of our lives and advances in the economy.quality of our lives and advances in the economy.
PRESIDENT OF USAPRESIDENT OF USA
State of the Union Address, Jan 27, 2000State of the Union Address, Jan 27, 2000
..The three top priorities of my government areThe three top priorities of my government areEDUCATION, EDUCATION & EDUCATION..EDUCATION, EDUCATION & EDUCATION..
Tony BlairTony Blair
Policy Announcement 2000Policy Announcement 2000
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Impact of just one institution----MITImpact of just one institution----MIT
MIT graduates and faculty have foundedMIT graduates and faculty have founded4000 companies4000 companies
Employ: 1.1 million peopleEmploy: 1.1 million people
Annual Sales: $232 billionAnnual Sales: $232 billion
GDP contribution: $116 billionGDP contribution: $116 billion
Collectively these companies are the 24thCollectively these companies are the 24thlargest economy in the World!largest economy in the World!
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Imperatives for Socio-EconomicImperatives for Socio-Economic
DevelopmentDevelopment
Socio-EconomicDevelopment
Central Role of HigherEducation/
Technology Development
In National Plans--VISION!!!!
Linkages Between Applied Researc& Industrial DevelopmentGovt.Facilitating Policies
Quality /RelevanceOf Education/Research
STANDARDS!!
Budgetary Allocations(Min.2% of GNP)-
The-catch-up game!
Gl b l l ti f bi t h
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Source: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications
Global plantings of biotech cropsincreased by 12 percent in 2002
58.7
52.6
1.711
27.8
44.2
39.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Global Area of GM Crops
M
illionHecta
res
Products on the market 25
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2.6Fan Industry
600Automotive Industry
30Surgical /Electro Medical Instruments
83Ceramics
186Contract Manufacturing / Outsourcing
630Pharmaceutical / chemicals
1,500Electronics / Home Appliances / Components
WorldMarkets, 2004
US$ (B)
Engineering Goods
World Engineering Sector
63% of world trade is in manufactured goods, and electronics hasmajor share of it.
39
WORLD ELECTRONICS
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Major Opportunities:
Contract Manufacturing: US$ 186 b (2004), US$ 500 b (2010).
ICTs: ~US$ 130B worldwide
Electronics / Chip Design : US$ 90 b in 2004
Software development :US$ 1300 by 2006
Electronics Services ( call centres, digital archiving)
WORLD ELECTRONICS:
Shift in Markets / Production by Region & Sector
World Markets: 2004: US$ 1500 b; (~90% in N. Amer, EU, Japan)
2006-07: US$ 1900 b: Their share will fall to ~70%
Major Share: Consumer Electronics, Computers, Telecoms.
SHIFT TO CHINA ~22% of world production in 2004
41
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Biologicals in DevelopmentBiologicals in Development
In development
Approved
80
12
132
16
143
22
234
31
284
40
1989 91 93 95 96
350
65
98
Source: PhRMA,
369
75
00 02
371
85
Source: European Commission
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Biotech
20%
Conventi
onal
80%
Medicines Market 2004-5
p
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Med. BT IndustryMed. BT Industry
260 mn helped worldwide 125 drugs / vac approved
by FDA
350 drugs in clinical trials
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Pakistan---A Promising ProgramPakistan---A Promising Program
S&T Budget increased 6000%!!!S&T Budget increased 6000%!!!
Higher Education budget increased 1,200%!!!Higher Education budget increased 1,200%!!!
Full support fromFull support from PresidentPresident of Pakistanof Pakistan
A real beginning after 50 years of lip serviceA real beginning after 50 years of lip service
Strategy
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AgricultureAgriculture Diversification::(spices,nuts,medicinal/aromatic plants,oil-Diversification::(spices,nuts,medicinal/aromatic plants,oil-
producing plants,tea,fruits)producing plants,tea,fruits)
Value Addition(agro-food industry,silk production,healthValue Addition(agro-food industry,silk production,healthfoods,preserved fruits etc.)foods,preserved fruits etc.)
IndustryIndustry Diversification Diversification Shipping, Automobile Manufacture, EngineeringShipping, Automobile Manufacture, Engineering
Goods, Chemicals/ Pharmaceuticals, Household Appliances,Goods, Chemicals/ Pharmaceuticals, Household Appliances,Transportation Equipment, Telecommunication Equipment etc.Transportation Equipment, Telecommunication Equipment etc.
ServicesServices
Banking, Transportation, Communication, TourismBanking, Transportation, Communication, Tourism
Enhancing GDP:Enhancing GDP: S&T Integrated into NationalS&T Integrated into NationalDevelopment StrategyDevelopment Strategy
Strategy
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HEC Plan of ActionHEC Plan of Action
ACCESS / QUALITY / RELEVANCEACCESS / QUALITY / RELEVANCE
Faculty DevelopmentFaculty Development
InfrastructureInfrastructure (Free Access to Literature(Free Access to LiteratureFree Access to Sophisticated Instruments,Free Access to Sophisticated Instruments,Technology Assisted Learning)Technology Assisted Learning)
Focused Support in Key AreasFocused Support in Key Areas
Linkages to the EconomyLinkages to the Economy
Quality AssuranceQuality Assurance
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Action Plan (Continued)Action Plan (Continued)
Focused Support in Key AreasFocused Support in Key Areas Industrial RelevanceIndustrial Relevance
Agriculture, Engineering, IT, Bio-tech, BasicAgriculture, Engineering, IT, Bio-tech, Basic
Sciences, Social Sciences / Economics /Sciences, Social Sciences / Economics /Humanities, NursingHumanities, Nursing
Strengthening of Centers of ExcellenceStrengthening of Centers of Excellence
Linkages to the EconomyLinkages to the Economy Developing the Culture of InnovationDeveloping the Culture of Innovation
Steering Committee for Univ-IndustrySteering Committee for Univ-IndustryLinkagesLinkages
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August 14, 2000
29 Cities
S S S
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FASTEST INTERNETSPREAD!!
97% of thepopulation
UNCTAD
report 2003
>35%
ahead of
regional
countries!!
Oct 2003:1600 locations
97% Population Access to
the Internet
UNCTAD Report 2003UNCTAD Report 2003
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UNCTAD Report 2003UNCTAD Report 2003Information & Communications Technology developmentInformation & Communications Technology development
IndexIndex
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
America United Kingdom Japan Korea
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Malaysia Pakistan India Bangladesh
Connectivity Access Policy ICT Diffusion
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Pl ti tPl ti t
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Plummeting costs.Plummeting costs.
Cost /E1
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Mar-0
0
May-0
0Jul-0
0
Sep-00
Nov-0
0
Jan-01
Mar-0
1
May-0
1
US
$Cost /E1
Startpoint
Today
June 2000:US$ 87,000/E1 August 2001:US$ 6,000
October 2004 : US$ 3,800
Aiming for US$ 2,500/2 Mb/s IP!
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Internet user growthInternet user growth
Internet users
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,0001,000,000
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Internet users
StartpointToday
June 2000:130,000 Oct 2004: 6,800,000
Actual users
more than 6
Million!
Dial up
C ll l l iC ll l l i
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Cellular explosionCellular explosion
Cellular Users
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
J
an-95
J
an-96
J
an-97
J
an-98
J
an-99
J
an-00
J
an-01
J
an-02
Ce
llularUsers
Cellular Users
Start point
Today
CPP
Jan 2001:225,000 Oct 2004:3, 550,000
Multiplied 500% in the
last 18 months ascompared to the whole of
the last 11 years
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Paksat 1Paksat 1
Ku BandKu Band
C-BandC-Band
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INCENTIVES TOINCENTIVES TO
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INCENTIVES TOINCENTIVES TO
SCIENTISTS/ACADEMICSSCIENTISTS/ACADEMICS
RESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY ALLOWANCERESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY ALLOWANCE((National Ranking System IntroducedNational Ranking System Introduced))
TENURE TRACK SYSTEMTENURE TRACK SYSTEM (salaries 4 times that(salaries 4 times that
of government ministers !)of government ministers !)
MASSIVE RESEARCH FUNDING (upto UsdMASSIVE RESEARCH FUNDING (upto Usd100,000 per project, USD 600,000 per100,000 per project, USD 600,000 per
international linkage program)international linkage program)
50%REDUCTION OF INCOME TAX50%REDUCTION OF INCOME TAX
F lt D l tFaculty Development
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Faculty DevelopmentFaculty Development
MechanismMechanismResearch Grant ProgramResearch Grant Program
Technological Infrastructure EnhancementTechnological Infrastructure Enhancement
Laboratories ImprovementLaboratories Improvement
Access to InformationAccess to Information
Support for Research ActivitiesSupport for Research Activities
Post-Doctoral FellowshipsPost-Doctoral Fellowships
Qualification Improvement OpportunitiesQualification Improvement Opportunities
Targeted support of Disadvantaged Universitys facultyTargeted support of Disadvantaged Universitys faculty
Ph.D. Student SupportPh.D. Student Support
Teacher TrainingTeacher Training
Linkages to IndustryLinkages to Industry
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Faculty DevelopmentFaculty DevelopmentDevelop a strong base of Ph.D. levelDevelop a strong base of Ph.D. level
highly qualified facultyhighly qualified faculty
Indigenous Scholarship ProgramIndigenous Scholarship Program (200 to(200 to1500/yr.)1500/yr.)
Foreign Faculty Hiring-Foreign Faculty Hiring---reversing the brain--reversing the braindrain! (249 have returned---others coming!)drain! (249 have returned---others coming!)
Foreign Ph.D. Scholarship ProgramForeign Ph.D. Scholarship Program (sending(sending15,000 students for Ph.D. level training15,000 students for Ph.D. level trainingContractual tenure track system-Contractual tenure track system---international--internationalassessmentassessment
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Creating the Environment!Creating the Environment!
Free access to 17,000 full textinternational journals
Free access to sophisticated
instrumentation
Centralized instrumentation facilities
Availability of trained technicians
Scholarships to students---admissions onmerit and merit alone!
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PERN ---ApplicationsPERN ---Applications
Digital Library Access to InformationDigital Library Access to Information
Virtual UniversityVirtual University
Satellite Internet DeliverySatellite Internet DeliveryRemote Lecture ProgramRemote Lecture Program
University Information ManagementUniversity Information Management
SystemSystem
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ResultsResults
44% Increase in ISI abstracted44% Increase in ISI abstractedpublications----rate of increase highest inpublications----rate of increase highest inIslamic worldIslamic world
Young men and women have startedYoung men and women have startedopting to adopt careers in S&T subjects asopting to adopt careers in S&T subjects asfirst choicefirst choice
Landscape of Universities has begun toLandscape of Universities has begun tochangechange
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KeyKeyss to Successto Success
Courage to dream great dreamsCourage to dream great dreams and hard and hardwork/tenacity to transform them in to realitywork/tenacity to transform them in to reality
Identifying andIdentifying and groominggrooming thethe bbrightestrightest
mmanpoweranpower---merit based system---merit based systemFocusing onFocusing oncutting edgecutting edge ttechnologiesechnologies ininmarket oriented disciplinesmarket oriented disciplinesMMoving fast!oving fast! but--- sense of urgency must bebut--- sense of urgency must be
combined with striving for perfectioncombined with striving for perfectionOptimismOptimism ---Taking failures as challenges---Taking failures as challenges
Focus----Focus-----Focus !!Focus----Focus-----Focus !!
ImmediateImmediate ActionsActions by Internationalby International
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ImmediateImmediate ActionsActions by Internationalby International
CommunityCommunity
1) Promote1) Promote Centers of ExcellenceCenters of Excellence ininDeveloping CountriesDeveloping Countries
2) Promote an2) Promote an International LinkageInternational Linkage
Program ---linking institutions inProgram ---linking institutions indeveloping countries with those in thedeveloping countries with those in theWest----80:20 contributions!!West----80:20 contributions!!
3) Set aside significant portion of3) Set aside significant portion ofDevelopment Assistance for aDevelopment Assistance for a massivemassivescholarship programscholarship program
ImmediateImmediate ActionsActions by Internationalby International
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ImmediateImmediate ActionsActions by Internationalby International
Community (contd)Community (contd)
ProvideProvide Access to International Journals/DataAccess to International Journals/DataBasesBases as part of Developmental assistance (oras part of Developmental assistance (oras policy eg.HINARI)as policy eg.HINARI)
PromotePromote Distance LearningDistance LearningPromotePromote free access to internationalfree access to international
lectures/lecture materialslectures/lecture materials ( MIT Open( MIT OpenCourseware ) to be replicatedCourseware ) to be replicated
Subsidize publishersSubsidize publishers for selling cheap text booksfor selling cheap text books
in developing countriesin developing countries
International CommentsInternational Comments
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International CommentsInternational Comments
Editorial inEditorial in NatureNature ----29----29thth
January 2004:January 2004:
Rahman has convinced Musharraf and a deluge ofRahman has convinced Musharraf and a deluge of
money and new initiatives has poured out. Ministry of Sciencemoney and new initiatives has poured out. Ministry of Science
and Technologys annual budget has increased 60 foldand Technologys annual budget has increased 60 fold
compared with 1999; researchers have an opportunity to morecompared with 1999; researchers have an opportunity to morethan double their earnings if they publish more in peer-than double their earnings if they publish more in peer-
reviewed journals; funds have been released for many morereviewed journals; funds have been released for many more
Ph.Ds. to be trained at home and abroad; plans are well underPh.Ds. to be trained at home and abroad; plans are well under
way for a free digital library for all educational institutions;way for a free digital library for all educational institutions;
there is a new scheme to attract researchers from overseas to work inthere is a new scheme to attract researchers from overseas to work inPakistan---------------------------------------------------------------------------Pakistan---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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