An Election Year Like No Other

Ron Elving – Senior Washington Editor and Correspondent, NPR NewsWednesday, March 4, 2020 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM

2020An Election Year Like No Other

FMI / Annual Meat ConferenceNashville March 4, 2020

Ron ElvingNPR / American University

2020 Vision

What just happened?

What will it mean for nomination?

What’s coming in the fall?

What else will happen in 2020?

What will the 2020s bring?

Super Tuesday States 2020

2020 Super Tuesday

14 States / One third of all delegates

ME / VT / MA / VA / NC / TN / AL

AR / OK / TX / MN / CO / UT / CA

Need 15% of state or CD to get delegates

2020 Super Tuesday

Biden won more states:TX / NC / VA / TN / AL / AR / OK

MN / MA

But Sanders held his own in delegatesCA / CO / UT / VT / ME

Field Narrows Further

Michael Bloomberg won American SamoaMay well drop out

Elizabeth Warren finished 3rd in her home state of Massachusetts

May remain to seek role in brokered convention

A Two-Man Race

2020 VisionMarch 10

Idaho / Michigan / Mississippi Missouri / North Dakota / Washington

March 17Arizona / Florida / Illinois / Ohio

2020 VisionMarch 24Georgia

April 7Wisconsin

April 28Connecticut / Delaware / Maryland

New York / Pennsylvania / Rhode Island

2020 Remaining Primaries

Sanders well positioned in NY, FLA

Sanders also strong in states that are deep blue or deep red

2020 Democratic Convention

Someone will have the most,but probably less than half.

We thought that would be Sanders, butwith field narrowing dramatically the

upcoming primaries are crucial.

2020 Democratic Convention

It is possible thatMilwaukee convention

will be the first since 1952 without a pre-determined winner.

2020 Democratic Convention

“Brokered” convention could

1. Unite behind leader with plurality2. Combine leader with one rival3. Pick a “dark horse” 4. None of the above

What Comes Next?

President Trump is renominated without opposition and by acclimation.

GOP convention in Charlotte will be four-night informercial and rally.

What Comes Next?President Trump has vulnerabilitiesdespite the general peace and prosperity.

1. Uncertain effects of novel coronavirus2. Possible economic fallout3. Stock market overdue for correction4. Lingering effects of investigations5. Persistent weakness in polls

2020ElectoralCollegeVote

Firm Base2018 Trump Approval

at or above 50%in 17 states

worth 102 Electoral Votes.Low Ceiling

Approval under 40%in 16 states (+ DC)

worth 201 Electoral Votes.

2020ElectoralVote

Trump Approval runs 41-49% in 17 states with 235 EC votes.

So watch 8 swing statesthat he won in ‘16:

Florida, North CarolinaOhio, Iowa, Arizona

Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin

What Comes Next?• Unprecedented levels of campaign

spending on both sides

• Even greater spending by outside groupson both sides

• Controversy over debates (or no debates)

WillOthersRun?

Third Party or independent candidates can make a difference.

2016200019961992

With unlimited funds,could qualify for fall debates.

What Comes Next?

Incumbent presidents are re-elected,usually easily, barring…

1. An unpopular foreign war2. A recession or recent recession3. Major division within incumbent party

Popular Vote and the Electoral College

President could lose popular voteby more than the 3 million-vote margin

of 2016 but still win Electoral College.

This becomes easieras population becomes more concentrated in fewer states.

What Else Happens in 2020?

35 seats of 100 in the U.S. Senatewill be on the ballot.

23 are now Republican-held.All but 2 of those in Trump states where he is likely to win again.

What Else Happens in 2020?

GOP senators considered vulnerable are Susan Collins of Maine and CoryGardner of Colorado.

Possible other targets: Martha McSally,an appointee in Arizona, and Kelly

Loeffler, an appointee in Georgia andThom Tillis of N.C.

What Else Happens in 2020?

The 12 Senate seats on the ballot nowheld by Democrats include Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama, won in a special election in 2017.(Jeff Sessions wants it back.)

What Else Happens in 2020?

In the House, Democrats must defend a narrow margin of majority after the bruising process of impeachment. Many of their 41 first-term members could be at risk, especially if Sanders leads the ticket.

What Else Happens in 2020?

In the states, 11 governorswill be chosen along with most seats in the 50 state legislatures. They will draw the new maps formembers of Congress

and legislatures through 2030.

WhatWill2020sBring?

POLARIZATION IS REAL ANDGROWING

IdeologyDemographics

Density

WhatWill 2020sBring?

The Growing Disparity(and Importance)of Party Ideology

WhatWill2020sBring?

Younger voters(Gen X, millennials and Gen Z)

are becoming criticalto election outcomes

sooner in their lives than earlier

generations of voters.

WhatWill2020sBring?

Non-Anglo voterscast just 11% of U.S. vote

for president in 1980.That share increased

2 pointsper cycle (on average)

to 26.7% in 2016

It could be 30% in 202035% in 2028.

Declining Anglo share of voting- age citizens, 2013-17

What Will2020sBring?

More awarenessof the growing disparity

(and critical importance)of population density

as an indicatorand determiner

of voting behavior.

America as Seen on @RealDonaldTrump

Population vs. Landscape:A Deepening Divide?

What Will 2020sBring?

52% of U.S. pop. lives inthe 9 most populous

states with just 18 senators.

18% of U.S. pop. livesin the 26

least populous states and elects 52 senators.(Most of them GOP.)

2020 Vision (Reviewed)

What just happened?

What will it mean for nomination?

What’s coming in the fall?

What else will happen in 2020?

What will the 2020s bring?