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An ninh nng lng cua mt s khu vc trn th gii trong chin lc an ninh
nng lng toan cu
The Third International Science Confrence on Sustainable Energy
Development, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 1
AN NINH NNG LNG CA MT S KHU VC TRN TH GII TRONG CHIN LC AN NINH
NNG LNG TON CU
NCS.V Minh Tp i hc KHXH v NV TP.H Ch Minh
10 12 inh Tin Hong, Q.1, TP.H Ch Minh Email:
[email protected]
Sch Hi tho khoa hc quc t ln III v Pht trin nng lng bn vng, Nxb
Khoa
hc t nhin v Cng ngh, H Ni, tr.53-58.
Tm tt / Abstract:
Bi vit tp trung phn tch s thay i cu trc ca th trng nng lng th
gii v nguyn nhn dn n s thay i ; Vai tr nng lng ca mt s khu vc trn
th gii nh Trung ng, Trung , chu Phi, ng u, ng (trong c Vit Nam)Cui
cng l s cnh tranh chin lc ca cc nc ln nh Nga, Trung Quc, M, EU tip
cn ngun ti nguyn ca cc khu vc nu trn v tc ng n Vit Nam u th k
XXI.
This article mainly analyze about the changing structure of
globals energy markets and the causes of this change. Energys role
of some region on the world such as the Middle East, Central Asia,
Africa, East Europe,
East Asia (including VietNam) Finally, the competitive
strategies of some major country for instance Russia, China, U.S
and EU in order to
approaching the resource of region mentioned above and the
affect to
VietNam in the early twenty first century.
1. Khi nim nng lng v an ninh nng lng
Khi nim nng lng
Cho n nay, vic tip cn khi nim nng lng u ph bin hu ht khp cc quc
gia, cp ton cu. Ngi ta cn c vo nhng loi hnh (kh ha lng, xng du, in
lc), qu trnh hnh thnh (nng lng c sn, nng lng n t thin th, nng lng
do tc dng ca tri t) , trnh v cch s dng (nng lng truyn thng, nng lng
mi), phng php khai thc (khai thc t t nhin, chuyn ha, gia cng), kh
nng ti sinh (nng lng ti sinh v khng ti sinh) v cn c va mc nh hng n
mi trng (nng lng sch, nng lng khng sch) nh ngha nng lng.
Tuy nhin, khi nim nng lng c hiu chung nht l cc ngun ti nguyn,
nhin liu cung cp, phc v cho i sng, sn xut v cc nhu cu thit yu ca
con ngi. Nng lng l mt trong nhng iu kin ti kin quyt ca s sng cn v
pht trin ca mi con ngi v ton nhn loi. iu kin kin quyt cho s tn ti v
pht trin ca bt k nn vn minh no iu l nng lng. Trong cc loi nng lng,
du m, than v
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An ninh nng lng cua mt s khu vc trn th gii trong chin lc an ninh
nng lng toan cu
The Third International Science Confrence on Sustainable Energy
Development, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 2
kh ha lng l ba loi hnh nng lng quan trng nht, c nh hng n mi i
sng ca con ngi.
Khi nim an ninh nng lng
An ninh nng lng l mt lnh vc quan trng gn vi vn an ninh v an ninh
quc gia. An ninh nng lng l mt t xut hin trong h thng t ng hin i t
thp nin 50 ca th k XX. Ni hm ca an ninh nng lng thay i theo pht
trin ca kinh t x hi, nhng thay i gia con ngi v thin nhin m c nhng
iu chnh nht nh.
An ninh nng lng l mt khi nim rng v m. N bt u c cp n k t thp nin
70 ca th k trc, c bit l giai on xy ra cuc khng hong du la nm
1973-1974. Thi k ny, an ninh nng lng c hiu theo ngha hp ng ngha vi
an ninh du la, tc l m bo kh nng t cung cp du mc cao nht ng thi gim
mc nhp khu du v kim sot c nhng nguy c i km vic nhp khu. Ngy nay
nhng thay i trong th trng du v cc nng lng khc cng s xut hin nhiu
nguy c nh tai nn, ch ngha khng b, u t km vo c s h tng v th trng hn
ch... khin khi nim ny khng cn ph hp. Tuy nhin khi nim an ninh nng
lng khng n thun l cc ngun cung cp nng lng (ch yu l du la) c m bo nh
nhng thp k trc y, m cn c hiu mt cch ton din, bao qut hn l phi m bo
cng tc bo v mi trng, gi c hp l v kh nng ng ph vi cc tnh hung khn cp
pht sinh t cc nhn t kinh t, chnh tr bn trong v bn ngoi quc gia.
n nay, tri qua nhiu tranh lun v cch tip cn khc nhau1, tuy nhin
khi nim an ninh nng lng hin nay c thng nht l s m bo y nng lng di
nhiu dng khc nhau, sch v r. C th ni trong bi cnh ton cu ho ngy nay,
an ninh v an ninh nng lng cng ang ni ln nh nhng vn ton cu ht sc bc
thit.
2. Cu trc th trng nng lng th gii
K t sau cuc khng hong nng lng 1970 n nay, c bit trong hn thp nin
u th k XXI, cu trc th trng nng lng th gii c nhiu bin ng ln. Lch s
gi c nng lng trn th trng th gii tng lin tc. Cuc khng hong nm 70 th
k trc vi gi du tng t 10-11USD/thng ln 37USD/thng, nm 2005 mc
70USD/thng, nm 2006 gn 80 USD/thng, nm 2007 dao ng di mc 100
USD/thng nhng n thng 7/2008 gi du ln u tin t k lc lch s vi mc gi
150 USD/thng. Theo B nng lng M, nhu cu du la th gii n nm 2025 tng
ln 35%, theo IEA n nm 2030 l 60% v nhu cu du la tng t 116 triu
thng/ngy so vi 86 triu thng/ngy nh hin nay. Thang v kh t cng tnh
trng tng t.
1 Nhiu quc gia, t chc trn th gii c nhng hng tip cn, thay i v s
dng khi nim an ninh
nng lng khc nhau, Xem: Vng Dt Chu (2004), An ninh quc t trong
thi i ton cu ha, Nxb CTQG, H Ni, tr.421), hay trong bo co Chnh sch
nng lng quc gia Hoa K(5/2000) (Xem U.S China economic and security
review commission, U.S. Gorvernment Printing Office, Washington
D.C, 2003), Chin lc nng lng ca Ling Bang Nga n nm 2020
(5/2003),
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An ninh nng lng cua mt s khu vc trn th gii trong chin lc an ninh
nng lng toan cu
The Third International Science Confrence on Sustainable Energy
Development, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 3
Tuy nhin, trong tng lai tr lng mt s ngun nng lng c xu hng gim.
Theo vn phng T chc kim sot nng lng Anh (EWG), di lng t hin cn khong
1.255 t thng du, cho con ngi s dng trong 42 nm. Vi tc khai thc nh
hin nay, th gii ch sn xut c 39 triu thng/ngy vo nm 2030 so vi 81
triu thng/ngy nh hin nay v trong vng 50-60 nm na ngun du la di lng
t s hon ton cn kit. Cn theo IEA, n nm 2030, th gii ch c cung cp cha
n 1/3 nhu cu du la, tr lng than v kh t t nhin ch cn khong 909 t tn
v s cn kit trong 155 nm na.
Vy nguyn nhn no dn n cu trc th trng nng lng thay i? Chng ta l
gii ba gc v kha cnh kinh t, kha cnh v an ninh v kha cnh bt ng quan
im cc ch th v gii php x l khng hong nng lng, nht l du m.
i vi kha cnh kinh t, do nhu cu v s dng nng lng v u t cc nc pht
trin v ang pht trin, nht l nhng trung tm tiu th mi xut hin nh Trung
Quc, n , qu trnh cng nghip ha cc nc ang pht trin trong khi hn ch
ngun nng lng thay th, dn s tng nhanh, lm cho nhu cu du la th gii
tng nhanh chng. M l nc tiu th du ln nht th gii (24,6% th gii), kh t
(16% th gii); Lng du tiu th ti Trung Quc trong 40 nm qua tng 25 ln,
chim 8,55% th gii, nc ny c mc tng trng tiu th cao nht, nm 2004 tng
31%; Cc nc Ty u tiu th 22% du th gii, trong c nhp khu kh t ln th
hai th gii (14%); ASEAN cng ang thiu nng lng trm trng trong qu trnh
y mnh cng nghip ha. i vi kha cnh an ninh, hu ht cc khu vc chin lc v
nng lng, nht l du la (nh Trung ng, Trung , M Latinh, chu Phi, Bin
ng) l mc tiu tranh ginh ca cc cng quc v xu hng bt n ca n. S kin M
pht ng nhng cuc chin tranh nhng nm gn y Trung ng, mu thun Nga-M ti
Trung , Nga-Chu u, s bnh trng ca Trung Quc Bin ng v cc nc chu Phi..
cng vi nhng bt n nh xung t , mu thun sc tc, tn gio nhiu nc v khu vc
cng thng nh hng n ngun cung du m th gii, cng l nhng nhn t lm tng gi
du th gii. Cui cng l quan im v cung cp du m ca cc ch th. l nhng bt
n, bt ng quan im gia cc quc gia, cc t chc quc t xut khu du m v nhng
nc s dng du m nh M, OPEC trong vic bt hp tc trong kim ch gi du tng,
pht l ngh cng ng quc t v tng sn lng khai thc, c tnh duy tr gi du
thu li.
3. Nng lng ch yu mt s khu vc v cnh tranh chin lc gia cc nc
ln
Tnh hnh nng lng mt s khu vc trn th gii
n nay, s phn b khng u tr lng nng lng ca mt s, quc gia trn th gii
lm cho vn an ninh nng lng tr nn phc tp. Theo thng k, ba khu vc c tr
lng du m nhiu nht th gii l Trung ng, Bc Phi, Trung v Bc M chim
82,3% tr lng du m th gii, trong khu vc Trung ng chim 64%, chu M
(14%), chu Phi (7%), Nga (4,8%), Chu -Thi Bnh Dng (4,27%) [9,
tr.49]. C th, theo nh gi ca T chc Du m v Kh t th gii (2009):
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An ninh nng lng cua mt s khu vc trn th gii trong chin lc an ninh
nng lng toan cu
The Third International Science Confrence on Sustainable Energy
Development, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 4
i vi Trung ng, y l khu vc c tr lng du m v kh t ln nht th gii, tr
lng du m chim hn 50% tng tr lng du m th gii vi 727,314 t thng du v
gn tr lng kh t th gii vi 2.591,653 Tcf, trong Saudi Arabia (266,710
t thng), Iran (136,150 t thng), Iraq (155 t thng), Kuwait (104 t
thng), UAE (97,8 t thng) [6]. y l nhng nc c tr lng du m ln nht
khung vc Trung ng v xp theo th t th gii ln lt l 1, 3, 4, 5 v 7. V
tr lng kh t, Iran (991,6 Tcf), Qatar (890 Tcf), Saudi Arabia
(258Tcf) [6] v ln lc xp 2, 3, 4 th gii.
i vi chu Phi, y l khu vc c tr lng du m ng th 4 th gii vi 117,064
t thng, chim 10% tng tr lng du m th gii, cn tr lng kh t xp th 3 th
gii (sau Trung ng) v Trung vi 494,078 Tcf [6]. Trong , tr lng du m
ca Libya chim 3,4%, Nigeria chim 3% tng tr lng du th gii v c xp v
tr 9, 10 th gii; Cn kh t, Nigeria ng th 7 vi 184,2 Tcf v Algeria ng
th 9 vi 159 Tcf [6].
V kh nng sn xut v tiu th, c th ni Trung ng l khu vc sn xut du m
ln nht th gii hn 70% tng sn lng ca OPEC v 30% tng sn lng th gii, cn
chu Ph ln lt chim 30% v 13%.
i vi Nga, d tr kh t vo khong 47,2 47,5 nghn t m3, hn 70% tr lng
thm d tp trung vng Ural-Ty Xiberia, d tr v du la chim 13% ton th
gii, tr lng thm d c tnh khong 15,5 15,7 t tn, ng sau Saudi Arabia v
4/5 tr lng d bo tp trung vng Xiberi. i Trung , y l khu vc hng u th
gii v tr lng du kh v gaz t nhin, tp trung ch yu Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan v Uzbekistan, trong Kazakhstan c tr lng du m ng th 7
th gii, vi kh nng khai thc hin nay l 4 t tn, tr lng kh t c th khai
thc l 3.000 m3 [3, tr.43].
M Latinh, theo T chc Nng lng M Latinh (OLADE), tr lng du la ca
khu vc ny hin c xc nh l gn 1,7 ngn t thng, chim 20% tng tr lng du
la ton cu. M Latinh cn l khu vc c tr lng du la ln th 2 th gii sau
khu vc Trung ng (chim 55% tr lng du la ton cu). Hin nay, t nht 345
t thng du la M Latinh sn sng khai thc [10]. Cc nc c tr lng du ca
khu vc l Venezuela hin dn u th gii v du la vi tr lng 297 t thng,
chim 85% tr lng du la ca c M Latinh, Brazil, Mehico, Ecuardo
i vi Bin ng, theo nh gi ca B Nng lng M, lng d tr du c kim chng
Bin ng l 07 t thng vi kh nng sn xut 2,5 triu thng/ngy. Theo nh gi
ca Trung Quc, tr lng du kh Bin ng khong 213 t thng, trong tr lng du
ti qun o Trng Sa c th ln ti 105 t thng. Vi tr lng ny v sn lng khai
thc c th t khong 18,5 triu tn/nm duy tr c trong vng 15 - 20 nm
ti.
Nhn chung, tr lng du m, kh t ch tp trung mt s quc gia, khu vc, c
bit l cc nc vng Vnh, Trung , Bc Phi, vng sng Niger V tr a l u i cho
cc khu vc c hi khai thc v sn xut y tim nng khng nhng p ng nhu
cu
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An ninh nng lng cua mt s khu vc trn th gii trong chin lc an ninh
nng lng toan cu
The Third International Science Confrence on Sustainable Energy
Development, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 5
tiu th nng lng trong nc ang ngy cng cao m cn gip cc nc xut khu.
Song lm th no pht huy ti a li th ny thc s vn cn l mt vn t ra i vi
chnh cc quc gia ni trn v i vi c th gii.
Cnh tranh chin lc gia cc nc ln
Nh trn phn tch, ngun ti nguyn nng lng hu ht tp trung cc khu vc
Trung , Chu Phi, M Latinh, Trung ngv vic xut hin cc cng quc tiu th
nng lng mi (nh M, EU, Trung Quc, Nht, n ) vi nhu cu tiu th ngy cng
tng trong khi ngun cung ang cn kit tc ng mnh m ti c cu quyn lc ca
th gii, vn an ninh nng lng ngy cng tr nn cp bch.
Theo d bo, n nm 2030 nhu cu nng lng s tng ln 60% so vi nm 2005
vi tc pht trin kinh t trung bnh 3,5-4% trn ton cu v dn s th gii tng
ln 8,3 t ngi. Trong cc nc pht trin, nhu cu v nng lng s tng t 3 n
3,5 ln so vi OEDC, trong Trung Quc, n chim hn 50%, theo c tnh ti
2020 M cn thm 50% kh v 1/3 lng du hin nay, hin nc M du m chim khong
40% nhu cu nng lng trong nc. Ti Hi ngh thng nh EU (22/5/2013), d
kin n nm 2035, EU phi nhp 80% lng kh t, nhp khu du 90%, than 70%. n
s sm tr thnh nc tiu th nng lng ln th 4 th gii sau Hoa K, Trung Quc,
Nht Bn, vi 33% nhu cu nng lng v 65% lng du nhp khu[4].
Cc d bo u cho rng ngun cung du m ca th gii ch gia tng thm trong
khong na thp k na trc khi t nh im ri bt u gim, cn ngun cung kh t s
tip tc tng thm 1-2 thp k ri cng gim. iu ny lm cho cuc cnh tranh
ginh git cc ngun ti nguyn nh du m, kh t, than, v uranium ngy cng
quyt lit trn ton cu, quyn lc ca ci ang chuyn dn t nhng nc thiu nng
lng (Trung Quc, M, Nht, EU) sang cc nc d tha nng lng (Nga, Saudi
Arabia, Venezuela) v tiu th nng lng ca cc quc gia ang pht trin
trong tng lng tiu th nng lng s tng ln v cc quc gia pht trin s gim
i2. R rng vn an ninh nng lng buc cc quc gia phi iu chnh chin lc i
ngoi ca mnh, i tm kim nhng ngun cung cp nng lng n nh. Cng vi tng
cng quan h ngoi giao chnh tr, kinh t thng mi vi cc khu vc, cc nc
nhiu d tr nng lng, cc cng quc lun p dng cc bin php qun s nhm gia
tng v th trong cuc chin v nng lng nh hnh ng ca M, Trung Quc, Nga,
EU Trung ng, Bc Phi, Trung , Bin ng.nhng nm gn y.
Tt c nhng vn trn y lm cho trin vng pht trin nng lng ton cu lin
quan ti vic nng cao tnh minh bch, d bo c v tnh n nh ca th trng ton
cu. Ci thin mi trng u t v lnh vc nng lng, nng cao hiu qu s dng v
tit kim nng lng, a dng ha cc dng nng lng, bo m an ninh nng lng
2 Nhu cu tiu th nng lng ca th gii theo nhm quc gia 2003-2030 vi
t l trung bnh/nm l 2%,
trong c phn b nh sau: i vi OECD (1%), trong : Bc M (1,3%), chu u
(0,7%), chu (1%); Khng phi OECD l 3%, trong , chu (3,7%), Trung ng
(2,4%), chu Phi (2,6%), Trung v Nam M (2,8%), Ngun: EIA (2006),
International Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/EIA-0408-June, pp.7.
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An ninh nng lng cua mt s khu vc trn th gii trong chin lc an ninh
nng lng toan cu
The Third International Science Confrence on Sustainable Energy
Development, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 6
cng nh an ninh vn chuyn nng lng, h tng nng lng, gim bt thiu ht
nng lng qui m ln, gii quyt cc vn bin i kh hu v pht trin bn vng.
i tm gii php cho cuc khng hong nng lng
Trong bi cnh cc ngun nng lng ngy cng khan him dn, e da trc tip n
s n nh, i sng kinh t-x hi ca tt c con ngi, mi quc gia trn hnh tinh.
Ba gii php sau y c cng ng th gii thng dng. Th nht, tit kim ti a vic
s dng nng lng. Th hai, tm kim cc ngun nng lng thay th v gii php; Th
ba, ch mt s nc p dng, l dng cc bin php an ninh, qun s, kinh t nm li
cc ngun nguyn liu nng lng chin lc.
Tuy nhin, cc ngun nng lng thay th vn cn nhiu bt cp, cha ph hp v
cha ph bin. n nay, th gii v ang tp trung pht trin nng lng ht nhn,
nng lng ti sinh v nng lng sinh hc, c 32 quc gia v vng lnh th (dn s
gn 4 t ngi) c my in ht nhn, v cc nh my in ht nhn cung cp 16,4% sn
lng ton cu, tuy nhin kh khn l nng lng ht nhn thng i km vi nguy c r
r phng x, cc nc li dng sn xut v kh ht nhn, hn ch v ti chnh, trn th
gii hin c 45 quc gia s dng nng lng ti sinh, 60 nc c chng trnh quc
gia pht trin nng lng ti sinh, 19 nc khuyn khch s dng nng lng mt tri
v si m nhng nhc im ca n ph thuc vo thi tit, cng trnh thy in d gy
bin i a cht, khang him ngun nc, bn cnh , pht trin nng lng sinh hc
nh sn xut etanol, du diezen
i vi Vit Nam, vn nng lng v an ninh nng lng tc ng rt ln n nc ta,
ng thi cng t ra yu cu cp thit. Vit Nam a ra Chin lc Pht trin nng
lng quc gia n nm 2020, tm nhn 2050 (19/12/2007) [11], mc d vn thc
hin cn nhiu hn ch do ph thuc vo nhiu nhn t, nhng nhn chung vi chin
lc k trn, tng lai Vit Nam c nhiu c hi m rng hp tc trong lnh vc nng
lng, khai thc, s dng v sn xut nng lng vi cc quc gia, t chc khu vc v
trn th gii.
Nhn tng quan, gii php u tin hng u hin nay l tit kim nng lng. Tuy
nhin, gii php ny cho n nay vn khng th lm gim c nhu cu s dng nng lng
ngy mt tng ca th gii. c bit ti nhng nc cng nghip ha, p ng nhu cu
pht trin, ngi ta vn phi s dng nu khng tm ra loi nng lng khc thay th
du, than v kh t.
Kt lun
Nng lng v an ninh nng lng t lu tr thnh nhn t tc ng trc tip n s
pht trin kinh t, x hi hu ht cc quc gia trn th gii. S phn b, mt cn
bng trong kt cu nng lng th gii dn n s mt cn bng trong khai thc, s
dng nng lng cc quc gia. Hin ti, du m, than v kh t vn l ngun nng lng
ch yu, tc ng n mi sinh hot, i sng nhn loi. Tuy nhin, cc ngun ti
nguyn ny c nguy c cn kit trong 50 nm ti. V vy, vn nan gii v trong
mt vi thp nin ti, l kh nng pht hin v a vo s dng cc ngun nng lng mi
ca th
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An ninh nng lng cua mt s khu vc trn th gii trong chin lc an ninh
nng lng toan cu
The Third International Science Confrence on Sustainable Energy
Development, Hanoi, 2013. ISBN: 7
gii, theo nh gi ca nhiu chuyn gia vn ch mc d n tin kh thi. Do
vy, sc p v thiu ht nng lng li tip tc gia tng, bi vy, d c nhiu quan
im lc quan, nhng vn an ninh nng lng i vi nhn loi vn l vn bt xc ging
nh th k trc, nu khng mun ni l cn cng thng t nht trong khong u th k
XXI.
Bn cnh , vn nng lng v an ninh nng lng tip tc khng cn l vn chuyn
mn k thut thun ty m l vn chnh tr x hi, vn quan h quc t. Cc cuc xung
t th k XX u gn cht vi vn nng lng v an ninh nng lng, tnh trng ny cng
r nt v cng thng hn trong quan h quc t thp nin u th k XXI.
Cuc khng hong nng lng vn tip tc c d bo, thm ch mang tnh phc tp
hn. Trong bi cnh , Vit Nam cng cn phi xy dng mt chin lc hiu qu v an
ninh nng lng cho quc gia n 100 nm ti.
Ti liu tham kho
1. Vng Dt Chu, An ninh quc t trong thi i ton cu ha, Nxb CTQG, H
Ni, 2004.
2. U.S China economic and security review commission, U.S.
Gorvernment Printing Office, Washington D.C, 2003.
3. ng Minh c (Cb), Cng ng cc quc gia c lp (SNG) Nhng vn chnh tr,
kinh t ni bt, Nxb KHXH, H Ni, 2011.
4. Robert D.Kaplan, Center Stage for the Twenty-first Century
Power Plays in the India Ocean, Foreign Affairs, March/April,
2009.
5. EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/EIA-0408-June,
2006.
6. C quan thng tin v nng lng, EIA, 03/03/2009.
7. Trn Trng, Liu c mt cuc chin tranh ti nguyn ton cu trong th k
XXI, Tp ch Cng sn s 13(157), 2008.
8. Yegrin Daneil, Ensuring Energy Security, Foreign Affair,
Vol.85, No.2 (Mar-Apr),
pp.69-82, 2006.
9. Nguyn Minh Mn , Chnh sch an ninh nng lng ca Trung Quc trong
nhng nm u th ki XXI, Lun an Tin si lich s, ai hoc KHXH-NV TP.HCM,
2012.
10.http://petrotimes.vn/news/vn/quoc-te/dau-tien-quyen-luc/my-latinh-chiem-20-tru-
luong-dau-lua-toan-cau.html.).
11.http://thuvienphapluat.vn/archive/Quyet-dinh/Quyet-dinh-1855-QD-TTg-chien-
luoc-phat-trien-nang-luong-quoc-gia-Viet-Nam-den-nam-2020-tam-nhin-2050-
vb61256t17.aspx
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truong/trung-quoc-va-chien-luoc-an-ninh-nang-luong.html
