An Overview and Evaluation of the An Overview and Evaluation of the Real-Time Air QualityReal-Time Air Quality

Forecasting at NCDAQForecasting at NCDAQ

Presented ByPresented By

Nick WitcraftNick WitcraftNC Division Of Air QualityNC Division Of Air Quality

2014 National Air Quality Conference2014 National Air Quality Conference

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NCDAQ Modeling PlatformNCDAQ Modeling PlatformLinux cluster originally purposed for SIP modelingLinux cluster originally purposed for SIP modeling

SMOKE, CMAQSMOKE, CMAQ

1 head node, 8 six-core dual CPU nodes1 head node, 8 six-core dual CPU nodes

Use 1 node per model run, up to 4 WRF and 4 Use 1 node per model run, up to 4 WRF and 4 CMAQ runsCMAQ runs

Number of forecast runs is reduced during Number of forecast runs is reduced during regulatory modeling efforts.regulatory modeling efforts.

2014 NAQFC

Real-Time ModelingReal-Time Modeling

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WRF

MCIP

CMAQ

NAM/GFS + 1/12 SSTsInitial and Boundary Conditions

‘Canned’ Emissions

Web Images and Extractions

Initialize from previous run

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NCDAQ RT-AQ ModelNCDAQ RT-AQ Model• WRFWRF v3.51 provides the meteorology v3.51 provides the meteorology

– National 36km/ Eastern US 12km domainsNational 36km/ Eastern US 12km domains– 4 ‘flavors’ of WRF4 ‘flavors’ of WRF

WRF A WRF B WRF C WRF D

Initialization NAM NAM NAM NAM

Convective Scheme

KF2 BMJ G3 NSAS

Microphysics WSM6 WSM6 WSM6 WSM6

PBL PX ETA YSU MYNN2.5

Radiation RRTM RRTM RRTM Goddard

LSM PX Noah 5-layer Ruc

WRF DomainsWRF Domains

36km 12km

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WRf Model OutputWRf Model Output

• Many different images produced internally

• Will work on uploading some key variables to the web

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Air Quality ModelAir Quality ModelCMAQ 36km CMAQ 12km

Version 4.71 4.71 inline

Meteorology WRF 36km (A,B,C,D) WRF 12km (A,B,C,D)

MCIP V3.6 V3.6

Layers 14 14

Emissions VISTAS 2012 'Canned' EPA MATS 2016 Point 'Canned',Surface Interpolated between 2005 and 2016

Chemical Mech CB5 CB5

Boundary Conditions Profile 36km run

Initialization Previous forecast run Previous forecast run

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Model external web pageModel external web page

http://www.ncair.org/airaware/forecast/model

CMAQ A 12km pageCMAQ A 12km page

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Sample imagesSample images

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CMAQ output “mask”CMAQ output “mask”•Max 1 hour and 8 hour ozone is pulled from each forecast region

•We forecast for regions, not individual monitors!

•Now monitor based, with varying grid cell buffers

Southeast MasksSoutheast Masks

• North Carolina – AVL, HKY, CLT, GSO, North Carolina – AVL, HKY, CLT, GSO, RDU, FAY, RWIRDU, FAY, RWI

• Georgia – ATLGeorgia – ATL• South Carolina – AGS, CAE, CHS, FLO, South Carolina – AGS, CAE, CHS, FLO,

GSP, UZAGSP, UZA• Virginia – NoVA, FRD, RIC, WIN, SHEN, Virginia – NoVA, FRD, RIC, WIN, SHEN,

RNK, ORFRNK, ORF• I can add more areas if interested. All I I can add more areas if interested. All I

need is monitor lat-lon for each forecast need is monitor lat-lon for each forecast area.area.

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Sample mask – Triangle Sample mask – Triangle RegionRegion

AIRS AIRS LAT LAT LON LON CellBuffer NAMECellBuffer NAME

371830014 35.856098 -78.574203 371830014 35.856098 -78.574203 2 Millbrook2 Millbrook

371830016 35.585 371830016 35.585 -78.7947 -78.7947 1 Fuquay 1 Fuquay

370630099 35.892502 -78.8769 370630099 35.892502 -78.8769 2 BurdenEPA2 BurdenEPA

370630015 35.9919 370630015 35.9919 -78.8964 -78.8964 2 DurhamArm 2 DurhamArm

370770001 36.1408 370770001 36.1408 -78.7692 -78.7692 1 Butner 1 Butner

371010002 35.5 371010002 35.5 -78.4375 -78.4375 1 JoCo 1 JoCo

370690001 36.0975 370690001 36.0975 -78.4636 -78.4636 1 Franklntn1 Franklntn

370370004 35.7572 370370004 35.7572 -79.1597 -79.1597 1 Pittsboro1 Pittsboro

379999999 35.94 379999999 35.94 -79.07 -79.07 1 ChapelH1 ChapelH

379999999 35.779385 -78.356044 379999999 35.779385 -78.356044 1 Wendell1 Wendell

379999999 35.528507 -78.324734 379999999 35.528507 -78.324734 1 Smithfield-Selma HS1 Smithfield-Selma HS

379999999 36.088436 -78.295541 379999999 36.088436 -78.295541 1 Louisberg1 Louisberg

379999999 36.359513 -78.520331 379999999 36.359513 -78.520331 1 Oxford-Hendrsn1 Oxford-Hendrsn

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2013 12Z Performance2013 12Z PerformanceCharlotteCharlotte

Model % Correct G/Y Bias PPB Corr Coeff

NC CMAQA 80% (75%) +7.8 (+9.6) .72 (.76)

NC CMAQB* 77% (76%) +8.6 (+9.0) .70 (.76)

NC CMAQC* 80% (81%) +8.8 (+9.2) .76 (.80)

NOAA 83% +5.6 .78

Human 80% +5.6 .71

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36km runs in parentheses ()*B and C runs did not run the entire summer

2013 Charlotte max 8hr O3 2013 Charlotte max 8hr O3 Time SeriesTime Series

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Case Study – June/July 2012 OzoneCase Study – June/July 2012 Ozone

• Biggest ozone event in the last several Biggest ozone event in the last several years.years.

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Forecast Regions 19-J

un20

-Jun

21-J

un22

-Jun

23-J

un24

-Jun

25-J

un26

-Jun

27-J

un28

-Jun

29-J

un30

-Jun

1-Ju

l2-

Jul

3-Ju

l4-

Jul

5-Ju

l6-

Jul

7-Ju

l8-

Jul

9-Ju

l10

-Jul

Asheville - Ridge Tops 56.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 64.0 58.0 59.0 42.0 51.0 76.0 96.0 78.0 61.0 75.0 70.0 66.0 69.0 80.0 73.0 69.0 64.0 52.0Asheville - Valleys 61.0 64.0 68.0 52.0 57.0 56.0 57.0 52.0 52.0 74.0 79.0 78.0 62.0 61.0 65.0 60.0 58.0 76.0 71.0 63.0 61.0 46.0Hickory 55.0 67.0 66.0 59.0 61.0 54.0 59.0 50.0 52.0 78.0 82.0 81.0 61.0 60.0 74.0 62.0 64.0 76.0 73.0 65.0 70.0 50.0Charlotte 58.0 66.0 64.0 60.0 60.0 58.0 66.0 67.0 66.0 80.0 90.0 82.0 70.0 73.0 77.0 62.0 70.0 74.0 78.0 65.0 66.0 57.0Triangle 63.0 72.0 67.0 64.0 73.0 64.0 64.0 63.0 65.0 79.0 91.0 85.0 77.0 70.0 77.0 63.0 72.0 92.0 74.0 63.0 69.0 56.0Fayetteville 77.0 72.0 74.0 61.0 73.0 45.0 71.0 63.0 65.0 80.0 88.0 87.0 73.0 65.0 87.0 63.0 70.0 79.0 79.0 64.0 68.0 55.0Rocky Mount 52.0 65.0 60.0 59.0 54.0 55.0 54.0 47.0 45.0 74.0 77.0 82.0 54.0 55.0 62.0 52.0 59.0 74.0 66.0 60.0 60.0 40.0Triad 67.0 74.0 80.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 83.0 111.0 86.0 70.0 77.0 76.0 64.0 83.0 82.0 76.0 80.0 77.0 53.0

Statew ide 77.0 76.0 80.0 64.0 73.0 64.0 71.0 67.0 66.0 83.0 111.0 95.0 77.0 77.0 87.0 68.0 83.0 92.0 79.0 80.0 77.0 64.0

2012 Episode 12Z Performance2012 Episode 12Z PerformanceCharlotteCharlotte

Model % Correct Y/O Bias PPB Corr Coeff

NC CMAQA 75% +2.1 .77

NOAA 75% -5.1 .87

Human 75% -0.6 .86

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CLT – June/July 2012 OzoneCLT – June/July 2012 Ozone

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The Model followed general ozone trend fairly well; slight high bias

2012 Episode 12Z Performance2012 Episode 12Z PerformanceRaleighRaleigh

Model % Correct Y/O Bias PPB Corr Coeff

NC CMAQA 79% +11.3 .80

NOAA 79% -2.2 .91

Human 80% +5.6 .90

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RDU – June/July 2012 OzoneRDU – June/July 2012 Ozone

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June 29 ImagesJune 29 Images

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Other ModelsOther Models

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SummarySummary– NCDAQ model had general over predictions. Model usually NCDAQ model had general over predictions. Model usually

was ‘believable’.was ‘believable’.– NOAA had better overall performance than NCDAQ modelsNOAA had better overall performance than NCDAQ models– EGU emissions may be off; CEM data shows NC coal power EGU emissions may be off; CEM data shows NC coal power

plants at 30% capacity…NOAA may be picking up on this plants at 30% capacity…NOAA may be picking up on this by using recent CEM data as basis for their EGU emissionsby using recent CEM data as basis for their EGU emissions

– PM2.5 forecast trends are usually pretty good. Need to do PM2.5 forecast trends are usually pretty good. Need to do more analysis on PM2.5more analysis on PM2.5

– NCDAQ model not always available (advantage NOAA); at NCDAQ model not always available (advantage NOAA); at minimum we try to keep 36km models running. We need to minimum we try to keep 36km models running. We need to keep the NOAA model going given its reliability and good keep the NOAA model going given its reliability and good performance!performance!

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Future WorkFuture Work– Try to develop EGU emissions based on last years CEM Try to develop EGU emissions based on last years CEM

datadata– Start extracting PM2.5, look at performance Start extracting PM2.5, look at performance – Put extracted Ozone and PM2.5 Netcdf files on the webPut extracted Ozone and PM2.5 Netcdf files on the web– Put some WRF images on the webPut some WRF images on the web

– Transition to another web server. Current server has Transition to another web server. Current server has connection issues.connection issues.

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Nick WitcraftNick WitcraftNCDAQ Attainment Planning BranchNCDAQ Attainment Planning BranchMeteorologist II – Air Quality Meteorologist Meteorologist II – Air Quality Meteorologist 919-707-8484919-707-8484Nick.witcraft@ncdenr.org

Elliot TardifElliot TardifBradley McLambBradley McLamb

www.ncair.orgwww.ncair.org

Questions?Questions?