Analysis of Rainfall-Induced Landslide using

Agent-based Modeling in Infanta, Quezon

University of the Philippines Los BañosSchool of Environmental Science and Management

Talubo, J.P.P., Espaldon, M.V.O., Michlik, L.A., Macandog, D.M., Nelson,

G.M., Lalican, N., Jacildo, A.J., Pabico, J.P., Dorado, M.A., Abucay, E.R.,

Malenab, M.C.T., Asuero, M.

“From Theory to Practice: A Forum on Geohazards”

March 30, 2011

Phivolcs Auditorium, PHIVOLCS

Definition of Terms

Landslide

A gravitationally directed

movement of rock, debris or soil,

such as a rockfall or debris flow.

(Crozier, 1999; Cruden and

Varnes, 1996; Dikau et al.,1996;

Hufschmidt et al., 2005)

Expression of the instability of

slope and identified it to a bigger

group of processes called mass

movements

(Glade and Crozier, 2005;

Papathoma-Köhle et al., 2007).

Vulnerability =

Adaptive capacity

Sensitivity

Exposure (Stressors)

who is vulnerable to what

Vulnerability =

Adaptive capacity

Sensitivity

Exposure (Stressors)

Human Cognition

why & whenwho is vulnerable to what

AdaptationAdjustments in human systems in

response to actual or expected climatic

stimuli or their effects, which moderate

harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.

(IPCC, 2001)

Adaptive capacityThe capacity of the system/unit for the

psychological and physical recovery from

hazard

(Rayner and Malone, 1998)

Agent-based Modeling

In agent based modelling, an agent is generally

described as a self-contained programme that can

control its own actions, based on its perceptions of

its operating environment (Huhns and Singh, 1998; Warwick et al., 2004)

BackgroundAgent-based

modeling has

been used in a

wide variety of

applications,

from land-use

change and

pattern analysis

to testing social

science

concepts.

1. Tyndall Project Coastal

management options

2. VISTA Project

• Land use change

scenarios

• Vegetation carrying

capacity

3. EDEN Project

Assessing health risks

(Acosta-Michlik, 2007)

Application: VISTA

(Acosta-Michlik, 2007)

General Objective

To analyze rainfall-induced

landslide in Infanta, Quezon using

agent-based modelling.

Specific Objectives

1. To characterize the biophysical condition of the

area.

2. To identify the socio-economic profile of the

households.

3. To develop an agent-based model to show the

vulnerability of the communities, based on the

relationship between the biophysical, rainfall

and socio-economic parameters.

Conceptual Framework

YEAR RAINFALL EVENT LANDSLIDE

2010 Ondoy Parts of Metro Manila

and Central Luzon

2009 Pepeng Northern Philippines

2006 Caloy Guinsaugon, Southern

Leyte

2006 Durian Albay

2006 Milenyo Mt. Makiling in Laguna

2004 Winnie, Unding,

Violeta, Yoyong

Infanta, Quezon

2000 Edeng Payatas

1999 Ising Cherry Hills

1991 Uring Ormoc, Leyte

Philippines: Rainfall-induced Landslides

RAINFALL

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

(ADAPTIVE CAPACITY)

Income

Livelihood

Social networks

Perception about landslide

BIOPHYSICAL

LANDSLIDE

VULNERABILITY

TOPOGRAPHY

Slope

Elevation

LAND-USE/

LAND

COVER

LANDSLIDE EVENT IN INFANTA, QUEZON (2004)

SOIL TYPE

The Study Area

MAGSAYSAY

PINAGLAPATAN

ILOG

MethodologyData Gathering

Primary Data

- Household survey, Focus Group Discussions

Secondary Data

- Maps, Barangay Profiles, Satellite image,

Aerial photographs, Rainfall data

Data Processing

Remote Sensing

Geographic Information System

Cluster analysis in SPSS

Agent-based modeling

Results

Landuse map derived from Aster satellite image of the case study site in Infanta, Quezon in the

Philippines for the year 2002

Landuse map derived from Aster satellite image of the case study site in Infanta, Quezon in the

Philippines for the year 2008

The Agent-based Model

Conclusion

Agent-based modeling, together with Remote

Sensing and GIS techniques, is a useful tool in

landslide vulnerability studies, as it considers

both the biophysical and human agents.

ABM can integrate different sets of data

(biophysical, climatic and socio-economic), to

analyze a particular environmental problem like

rainfall-induced landslide.

ABM Practical Uses

Vulnerability database

Vulnerability scenarios based

on future rainfall projections

Disaster risk management