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Analyst’s Handbook:Real Estate
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 23, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
[email protected]
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
June 23, 2021 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Housing Starts 1Building Permits 2Housing Market Index 3-4New
Home Sales 5Existing Home Sales 6Pending Home Sales 7New Home
Prices 8Existing Home Prices 9-12FHFA Home Price Indexes 13Mortgage
Rates 14Mortgage Applications 15Delinquencies 16Real Estate
17-18Value of Home Sales 19Mortgages 20Housing Affordability Index
21Real Estate P/Es 22Home Equity Loans 23
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25.3
.5
.7
.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
.3
.5
.7
.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
May
HOUSING STARTS(million units, saar)
Latest (1.57)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 1.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
May
HOUSING STARTS(million units, saar)
Multi-Family (0.47)
Single-Family (1.10)
Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 2.
Housing Starts
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82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)
May
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 3.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)
May
Single-FamilyMulti-Family
Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 4.
Building Permits
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Figure 5.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun
May
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX &SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS
Single-Family Housing Starts(thousand units, saar)
Housing Market Index
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS
Current Single-Family Sales IndexFuture Single-Family Sales
Index
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
20
40
60
80
0
20
40
60
80
Jun
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS
Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers
Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce
Department.
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Housing Market Index
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Figure 6.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX
Northeast
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun
South
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jun
Midwest
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jun
West
Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce
Department.
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Housing Market Index
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Figure 7.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
12 14 16 18 20 22 24200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
May
NEW HOME SALES(thousand units, saar)
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
12 14 16 18 20 22 24100
200
300
400
500
600
100
200
300
400
500
600
May
NEW HOMES FOR SALE(thousand units, sa)
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
12 14 16 18 20 22 242
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
May
RATIO OF NEW HOMES FOR SALE TO NEW HOMES SOLD(months’
supply)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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New Home Sales
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Figure 8.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
EXISTING HOME SALES(million units, saar)
May
Total (5.8)Single-Family (5.1)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
EXISTING HOMES AVAILABLE FOR SALE(million units)
May
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
EXISTING HOMES: MONTHS’ SUPPLY ON THE MARKET*
May
* Ratio of existing homes for sale to existing homes
sold.Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Existing Home Sales
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20223
4
5
6
7
8
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
EXISTING HOME SALES & PENDING HOME SALES INDEX
Apr
PendingHome Sales Index(2001 = 100)
Existing Home Sales(million units, saar)
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 9.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202230
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
PENDING HOME SALES INDEX
Apr
Total (106.2)Northeast (85.3)MidWest (101.1)South (128.9)West
(92.0)
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 10.
Pending Home Sales
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
22 2460
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
NEW HOME PRICES: SINGLE-FAMILY(thousand dollars, 12-month moving
average)
May
Average Price (402.6)Median Price (352.3)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 11.
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
22-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
May
NEW HOME SINGLE-FAMILY PRICES(yearly percent change in 12-month
moving average)
Average Price (6.9)
Median Price (9.5)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 12.
New Home Prices
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
22 2440
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES(thousand dollars, 12-month
moving average)
May
Average Price (349.3)Median Price (320.2)
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 13.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
12 14 16 18 20 22 24-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
May
EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES(yearly percent change in
12-month moving average)
Home Price InflationAverage (11.2)Median (14.6)
Source: National Association of Realtors.
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Figure 14.
Existing Home Prices
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Figure 15.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2275
115
155
195
235
275
315
355
75
115
155
195
235
275
315
355
MayHOME PRICES(ratio scale)
Existing Single-FamilyMedian Home Price(thousand dollars, 12-ma,
ratio scale)
FHFA House Price Index:Purchase Only (Q1-1991=100, sa)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
OctHOME PRICE(ratio scale, nsa)
S&P/Case-Shiller 20 Metros Home Price Index(Jan
2000=100)
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2275
125
175
225
275
325
375
75
125
175
225
275
325
375MayEXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE
(thousand dollars, ratio scale, nsa)
Single-Family Existing___________________
Mean
Median
Source: National Association of Realtors, Macro Markets, and
Haver Analytics.
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Existing Home Prices
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Figure 16.
***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: CASESHATLP
Invalid calculation element [RE]
05-21-2021 - 17:31:45
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23100
150
200
250
OctDallas
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2360
90
120
150
180
210
240
270Oct
Boston
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2340
80
120
160
200
240
280
OctDenver
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
100
150
200
Oct
Charlotte
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2540
60
80
100
120
140
160
SepDetroit
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
75
100
125
150
175
Oct
Chicago
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2360
100
140
180
220
260
Oct
Las Vegas
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2360
80
100
120
140
160
OctCleveland
Source: Macro Markets.
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct
Los Angeles
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Existing Home Prices
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Figure 17.
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct
S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX(Jan 2000=100, nsa)
Miami
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2340
80
120
160
200
240
280
320Oct
San Diego
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
OctMinneapolis
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2325
75
125
175
225
275
325
Oct
San Francisco
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
100
150
200
250
Oct
New York
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct
Seattle
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2325
75
125
175
225
275
Oct
Phoenix
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
100
150
200
250
300
Oct
Tampa
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
100
150
200
250
300
Oct
Portland
Source: Macro Markets.
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
100
150
200
250
300
Oct
Washington DC
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Existing Home Prices
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Figure 18.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
23100130160190220250280310340370
MarFHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX: PURCHASE ONLY(Q1 1991=100, sa)
United States
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2390
130
170
210
250
290
330
370
Mar
SouthAtlantic
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2390
130
170
210
250
290
330Mar
NewEngland
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23110
140
170
200
230
260
290
320Mar
East South Central
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2390
130
170
210
250
290
330
Mar
MiddleAtlantic
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23110
150
190
230
270
310
350Mar
West South Central
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
23110130150170190210230250270290
MarEastNorth Central
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
23120160200240280320360400440480Mar
Mountain
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23100
150
200
250
300
350
400
MarWestNorth Central
Source: Federal Housing Finance Administration.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2390
140
190
240
290
340
390Mar
Pacific
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FHFA Home Price Indexes
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 241
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
INTEREST RATE ON FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE
6/21
30-Year Mortgage* (3.21)
* Average conventional 30-year commitment rate. Weekly data thru
December 2003, daily thereafter.Source: FHLMC Primary Mortgage
Market Survey.
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Figure 19.
Mortgage Rates
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233
4
5
6
7
8
9
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY
HOME SALES
6/18
May
Mortgage Applications:New Purchase Index(4-week average, sa)
New Plus ExistingSingle-Family Home Sales(million units,
saar)
Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.
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Figure 20.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
6/18
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX(4-week average, sa)
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 21.
Mortgage Applications
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Q1
LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)
Real Estate Loans
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Source: Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 22.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)
Residential Loans*
Commercial Loans**
* Residential real estate loans include loans secured by one- to
four-family properties, including home equity lines of credit.**
Commercial real estate loans include construction and land
development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and
loans secured by nonfarm,
nonresidential real estate.Source: Board of Govenors of the
Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 23.
Delinquencies
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
Q1
VALUE OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE(trillion dollars,
sa)
Source: Flow of Funds.
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Figure 24.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5VALUE OF EXISTING HOME SALES*(as a percent of Total
Owner-Occupied Real Estate)
* Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the
following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average
existing home price.Source: National Association of Realtors, US
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Flow of Funds.
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Figure 25.
Real Estate
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0246810121416182022242628
02468
10121416182022242628
Q1
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Q1
REAL ESTATE(trillion dollars, nsa)
OWNERS’ EQUITY(as a percent of household real estate)
Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate (22.7)
Home Mortgages* (11.0)
* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source:
Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
12 14 16 18 20 22-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
May
HOME VALUES(yearly percent change in 12-month average)
Total Value of HouseholdReal Estate Holdings
Median Existing Home Price
Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and
National Association of Realtors.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
Real Estate
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Q1
VALUE OF EXISTING HOME SALES*(billion dollars, saar)
* Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the
following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average
existing home price.Source: National Association of Realtors, US
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q1
VALUE OF NEW HOME SALES*(billion dollars, saar)
* Value of new home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the
following: new home sales (saar) multiplied by the average new home
price.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
Value of Home Sales
Page 19 / June 23, 2021 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-650
-450
-250
-50
150
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
-650
-450
-250
-50
150
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
Q1
HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(billion dollars, saar)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-.5
.0
.5
1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
Q1
HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(as a ratio of the value of existing* and
new home sales**)
* Value of existing home sales (saar)=quarterly average of the
following: existing home sales (saar) multiplied by the average
existing home price.** Value of new home sales (saar)=quarterly
average of the following: new home sales (saar) mulitplied by the
average new home price.
Source: National Association of Realtors, US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
Mortgages
Page 20 / June 23, 2021 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate
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81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2460
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Apr
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX*
Source: National Association of Realtors.* Based on 30-year
fixed rate mortgage.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Apr
100
150
200
250
300
Apr
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2250
100
150
200
250
Apr
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2250
100
150
200
Apr
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX*
Northeast Midwest
South West
Source: National Association of Realtors.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
Housing Affordability Index
Page 21 / June 23, 2021 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate
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58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
Q1
Q1
MARKET VALUE OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE
As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal
current transfer paymentsand other labor income
As a ratio ofdisposable personal income
Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and US
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Q1
Q1
HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING*
As a ratio of disposable personal incomeexcluding personal
current transfer paymentsand other labor income
As a ratio ofdisposable personal income
* Includes home equity loans and second mortgages.Source:
Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and
Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
Real Estate P/Es
Page 22 / June 23, 2021 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2440
100
160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
40
100
160
220
280
340
400
460
520
580
640
700
760
820
880
940
1000
1060
1120
1180
Q1
6/9
HOME EQUITY LOANS(billion dollars, sa)
At Commercial Banks(weekly) (261.7)
US CharteredDepository Institutions(quarterly) (318.2)
Total Home Equity Loans* (421.2)
* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity
loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by
mortgage companiesand individuals.Source: Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
6/9
Q1
HOME EQUITY LOANS(yearly change, billion dollars)
Home Equity Loans
At Weekly ReportingCommercial Banks
Total*
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity
loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by
mortgage companiesand individuals.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
Home Equity Loans
Page 23 / June 23, 2021 / Analyst’s Handbook: Real Estate
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