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Investment Style Guide
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 24, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Index Price Performance: 2020 1Index Price Performance: 2019 2Index Price Performance: 2018 3Index Price Performance: 2017 4Index Price Performance: 2016 5Index Price Performance: 2015 6Index Price Performance: Bull Market of 2020-? 7Index Price Performance: Bull Market of 2009-2020 8S&P 500 Growth/Value Relative Price Performance 9S&P 500 Pure G/V Relative Price Performance 10Growth/Value Relative Forward Revenues & Earnings 11Market Cap: S&P Earnings & Valuation 12Market Cap: S&P 500, 400, 600 13-14Market Cap: Russell 1000 vs. 2000 15Growth vs. Value: Revenue Squiggles 16Growth vs. Value: Earnings Squiggles 17Growth vs. Value: Profit Margins 18Growth vs. Value: Earnings Growth 19Growth vs. Value: S&P Valuation 20-21Growth vs. Value: Market Cap Shares 22Growth vs. Value: Net Revenue Revisions 23Growth vs. Value: Net Earnings Revisions 24Growth vs. Value: Revenue Growth 25Growth vs. Value: Earnings Growth 26Russell Valuation SmallCap, Growth, Value 27Valuation: SMidCap’s Relative to LargeCap’s 28Fwd Revenues & Earnings: SMidCap’s vs. LargeCap’s 29Fwd Growth: Blended vs. Pure Style 30Valuation: Blended vs. Pure Style 31LTEG & Fwd Profit Margin: Blended vs. Pure Style 32
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept2020
-50
-40
-30
-20
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0
10
-50
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-20
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0
10LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PERFORMANCE: 2020(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap (-0.5)S&P 400 MidCap (-10.3)S&P 600 SmallCap (-16.6)Russell 1000 LargeCap (0.0)Russell 2000 SmallCap (-12.0)
Latest data thru: 07/24/20
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept2020
-50
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-20
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0
10
20
-50
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0
10
20GROWTH & VALUE PERFORMANCE: 2020(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (11.2)S&P 500 LargeCap Value (-13.6)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (-1.9)S&P 400 MidCap Value (-19.4)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (-9.8)S&P 600 SmallCap Value (-23.7)
Latest data thru: 07/24/20
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 2.
Index Price Performance: 2020
Page 1 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2019
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0
5
10
15
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25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PERFORMANCE: 2019(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap (28.9)S&P 400 MidCap (24.1)S&P 600 SmallCap (20.9)Russell 1000 LargeCap (28.9)Russell 2000 SmallCap (23.7)
Latest data thru: 12/31/19
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2019
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30GROWTH & VALUE PERFORMANCE: 2019(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (29.1) S&P 500 LargeCap Value (28.6)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (24.5) S&P 400 MidCap Value (23.6)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (19.6) S&P 600 SmallCap Value (22.2)
Latest data thru: 12/31/19
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 4.
Index Price Performance: 2019
Page 2 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2018
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0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
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-5
0
5
10
15
20LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PERFORMANCE: 2018(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap (-6.2)S&P 400 MidCap (-12.5)S&P 600 SmallCap (-9.8)Russell 1000 LargeCap (-6.6)Russell 2000 SmallCap (-12.2)
Latest data thru: 12/31/18
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2018
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0
5
10
15
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25
-20
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0
5
10
15
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25GROWTH & VALUE PERFORMANCE: 2018(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (-1.4)S&P 500 LargeCap Value (-11.3)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (-11.5)S&P 400 MidCap Value (-13.6)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (-5.0)S&P 600 SmallCap Value (-14.2)
Latest data thru: 12/31/18
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 6.
Index Price Performance: 2018
Page 3 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2017
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PERFORMANCE: 2017(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap (19.4)S&P 400 MidCap (14.5)S&P 600 SmallCap (11.7)Russell 1000 LargeCap (19.3)Russell 2000 SmallCap (13.1)
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2017
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
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-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30GROWTH & VALUE PERFORMANCE: 2017(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (25.4)S&P 500 LargeCap Value (12.6)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (18.4)S&P 400 MidCap Value (10.2)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (13.5)S&P 600 SmallCap Value (9.8)
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
Index Price Performance: 2017
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2016
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PERFORMANCE: 2016(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap (9.5)S&P 400 MidCap (18.7)S&P 600 SmallCap (24.7)Russell 1000 LargeCap (9.7)Russell 2000 SmallCap (19.5)
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2016
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40GROWTH & VALUE PERFORMANCE: 2016(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (5.1)S&P 500 LargeCap Value (14.3)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (13.3)S&P 400 MidCap Value (24.0)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (20.7)S&P 600 SmallCap Value (29.1)
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 10.
Index Price Performance: 2016
Page 5 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2015
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PERFORMANCE: 2015(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap (-0.7)S&P 400 MidCap (-3.7)S&P 600 SmallCap (-3.4)Russell 1000 LargeCap (-1.1)Russell 2000 SmallCap (-5.7)
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec2015
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15GROWTH & VALUE PERFORMANCE: 2015(percent change ytd)
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (3.8)S&P 500 LargeCap Value (-5.6)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (0.8)S&P 400 MidCap Value (-8.4)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (1.5)S&P 600 SmallCap Value (-8.1)
Source: Frank Russell Company, Haver Analytics, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Index Price Performance: 2015
Page 6 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
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70LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2020-?(percent change from March 23, 2020 to ?)
S&P 500 LargeCap (43.7)S&P 400 MidCap (51.8)S&P 600 SmallCap (43.0)Russell 1000 LargeCap (45.7)Russell 2000 SmallCap (46.4)
Latest data thru: 07/24/20
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70GROWTH & VALUE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2020-?(percent change from March 23, 2020 to ?
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (49.3)S&P 500 LargeCap Value (36.3)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (55.2)S&P 400 MidCap Value (47.6)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (45.5)S&P 600 SmallCap Value (39.9)
Latest data thru: 07/24/20
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
Index Price Performance: Bull Market of 2020-?
Page 7 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550LARGECAP & SMIDCAP PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2009-2020(percent change from March 9, 2009 to February 19, 2020)
S&P 500 LargeCap (400.5)S&P 400 MidCap (418.7)S&P 600 SmallCap (459.1)Russell 1000 LargeCap (410.2)Russell 2000 SmallCap (393.1)
Latest data thru: 02/19/20
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600GROWTH & VALUE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2009-2020(percent change from March 9, 2009 to February 19, 2020)
S&P 500 LargeCap Growth (482.5)S&P 500 LargeCap Value (320.9)S&P 400 MidCap Growth (465.8)S&P 400 MidCap Value (368.9)S&P 600 SmallCap Growth (536.8)S&P 600 SmallCap Value (390.5)
Latest data thru: 02/19/20
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
Index Price Performance: Bull Market of 2009-2020
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.65
.70
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.65
.70
7/24
7/24
S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE RELATIVE TO S&P 500
Relative to S&P 500*GrowthValue
yardeni.com
* Rising (falling) line indicates that the index is outperforming (underperforming) the S&P 500.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
Figure 17.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
7/24
STYLE RATIO: S&P 500 GROWTH DIVIDED BY VALUE(daily)
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
Figure 18.
S&P 500 Growth/Value Relative Price Performance
Page 9 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
7/24
7/24
RELATIVE PRICE INDEX: S&P 500 PURE GROWTH & PURE VALUE(relative to S&P 500)
Pure Growth relative to S&P 500Pure Value relative to S&P 500
Rising line indicates thatthe index is outperforming the S&P 500
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
Figure 19.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
7/24
RELATIVE PRICE INDEX: S&P 500 PURE GROWTH & PURE VALUE(Pure Growth price index relative to Pure Value price index)
Rising line indicates thatPure Growth is outperforming Pure Value
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
Figure 20.
S&P 500 Pure G/V Relative Price Performance
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.65
.70
.75
.80
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.65
.70
.75
.80
7/16
RELATIVE FORWARD REVENUES: S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE INDEX
Rising line indicates thatGrowth is outperforming Value
yardeni.com
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 21.
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
7/16
RELATIVE FORWARD EARNINGS: S&P 500 GROWTH DIVIDED BY VALUE INDEX(ratio)
yardeni.com
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 22.
Growth/Value Relative Forward Revenues & Earnings
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250
100
150
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300
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400
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7/16
S&P FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE(weekly, Jan 1999=100)
Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (283.7)S&P 400 MidCap (418.4)S&P 600 SmallCap (355.8)
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
7/17
P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*(weekly)
S&P 500 LargeCap (22.0)S&P 400 MidCap (20.5)S&P 600 SmallCap (23.7)
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
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Figure 24.
Market Cap: S&P Earnings & Valuation
Page 12 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
400
700
1000
1300
1600
1900
2200
2500
2800
3100
3400
100
400
700
1000
1300
1600
1900
2200
2500
2800
3100
3400
7/24S&P INDEXES(weekly)
S&P 500 LargeCap (3215.6)S&P 400 MidCap (1849.9)S&P 600 SmallCap (851.6)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
7/24
S&P INDEXES(weekly, yearly percent change)
S&P 500 LargeCap (6.3)S&P 400 MidCap (-6.7)S&P 600 SmallCap (-11.5)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
Market Cap: S&P 500, 400, 600
Page 13 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 23.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
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60
80
100
-60
-40
-20
0
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60
80
100
7/24
S&P 500 LARGECAP vs. S&P 400 MIDCAP(weekly, yearly percent change)
S&P 500 LargeCap (6.3)S&P 400 MidCap (-6.7)
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-40
-30
-20
-10
0
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40
-40
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7/24
S&P 500 vs. S&P 400 SPREAD(yearly percent change, basis points)
S&P 500 Outperforms 400
S&P 500 Underperforms 400
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-60
-40
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0
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60
80
100
7/24
S&P 500 LARGECAP vs. S&P 600 SMALLCAP(yearly percent change) S&P 500 LargeCap (6.3)
S&P 600 SmallCap (-11.5)
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-50
-40
-30
-20
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0
10
20
30
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7/24
S&P 500 vs. S&P 600 SPREAD(yearly percent change, basis points)
S&P 500 Outperforms 600
S&P 500 Underperforms 600
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Market Cap: S&P 500, 400, 600
Page 14 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 24.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
500
900
1300
1700
2100
100
500
900
1300
1700
21007/17RUSSELL 1000 vs. RUSSELL 2000
(weekly, ratio scale)
Russell 1000 LargeCap (1789.0)Russell 2000 SmallCap (1473.3)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
7/17
RUSSELL 1000 vs. RUSSELL 2000(yearly percent change)
Russell 1000 LargeCap (8.5)Russell 2000 SmallCap (-4.8)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
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50
-50
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0
10
20
30
40
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7/17
RUSSELL 1000 vs. RUSSELL 2000 SPREAD(yearly percent change, basis points)
Russell 1000Outperforms 2000
Russell 1000Underperforms 2000
Source: Frank Russell Company and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Market Cap: Russell 1000 vs. 2000
Page 15 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021300
350
400
450
500
550
600
300
350
400
450
500
550
60021
7/1619
20
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH REVENUES PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward revenues*
Figure 25.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
19
20
21
7/16
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE REVENUES PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward revenues*
Figure 26.
Growth vs. Value: Revenue Squiggles
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2215
30
45
60
75
90
105
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
19
20 21
7/16
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH INDEX OPERATING EPS(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward earnings*
Figure 27.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2222
37
52
67
82
97
22
37
52
67
82
97
19
2021
7/16
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE INDEX OPERATING EPS(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward earnings*
Figure 28.
Growth vs. Value: Earnings Squiggles
Page 17 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20218
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
21
7/1619
20
yardeni.com
(using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward profit margin* (15.1)
Figure 29.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20215
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
5
6
7
8
9
10
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20 21
7/16
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(using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward profit margin* (8.1)
Figure 30.
Growth vs. Value: Profit Margins
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Figure 31.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
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S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUESTEG*
Growth (10.7)Value (0.4)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
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10
15
20
25
0
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LTEG*Growth (12.6)Value (4.9)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
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30
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GrowthSTEG* (10.7)LTEG* (12.6)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
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ValueSTEG* (0.4)LTEG* (4.9)
* STEG: 12-month forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Growth vs. Value: Earnings Growth
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
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FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE*(daily)
Growth (27.5)Value (17.3)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, then daily.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
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2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
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RELATIVE P/E: S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE*(Growth P/E relative to Value P/E)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
Growth vs. Value: S&P Valuation
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
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1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
7/16
PEG RATIOS FOR S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE*
Growth (2.21)Value (3.53)
* Using 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth and price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
7/16
RELATIVE PEG: S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE*(Growth PEG relative to Value PEG)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
Growth vs. Value: S&P Valuation
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230
35
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7/16
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH INDEX(percent)
S&P 500 Growth’s Shares Of:S&P 500 Market Cap (59.7)S&P 500 Earnings* (47.9)
* Using consensus 12-month forward earnings forecasts.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230
40
50
60
70
80
30
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60
70
80
7/16
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE INDEX(percent)
Capitalization Share (40.3)Earnings Share* (52.1)
* Using consensus 12-month forward earnings forecasts.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
Growth vs. Value: Market Cap Shares
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
-40
-30
-20
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0
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20
30
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10
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30
NERI May-34.19 Jun-26.21 Jul -7.15
Jul
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* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentageof the total number of forward earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH INDEX NET REVENUE REVISIONS*
Figure 38.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
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NERI May-37.10 Jun-29.85 Jul-11.00
Jul
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* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentageof the total number of forward earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE INDEX NET REVENUE REVISIONS*
Figure 39.
Growth vs. Value: Net Revenue Revisions
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
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NERI May-35.00 Jun-27.92 Jul -9.35
Jul
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* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentageof the total number of forward earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 40.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-40
-30
-20
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0
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NERI May-38.98 Jun-32.51 Jul-13.54
Jul
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* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentageof the total number of forward earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 41.
Growth vs. Value: Net Earnings Revisions
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
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25
30
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Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH REVENUE GROWTH(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward revenues*
2008 (9.6)2009 (-8.7)2010 (11.4)2011 (14.2)2012 (6.6)2013 (4.2)2014 (8.5)
2015 (5.1)2016 (4.9)2017 (9.1)2018 (11.2)2019 (5.9)2020 (-0.6)2021 (11.0)Fwrd (6.7)
Figure 42.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-10
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Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE REVENUE GROWTH(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward revenues*
2008 (2.6)2009 (-5.9)2010 (7.7)2011 (7.4)2012 (-2.2)2013 (0.4)2014 (0.6)
2015 (-7.9)2016 (0.2)2017 (5.2)2018 (7.9)2019 (3.4)2020 (-7.2)2021 (7.2)Fwrd (1.1)
Figure 43.
Growth vs. Value: Revenue Growth
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-30
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09
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18
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Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH EARNINGS GROWTH(percent)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward revenues*
2008 (7.9)2009 (-12.6)2010 (29.1)2011 (20.5)2012 (11.8)2013 (9.1)2014 (14.5)
2015 (9.8)2016 (7.1)2017 (14.6)2018 (26.9)2019 (4.3)2020 (-10.3)2021 (25.0)Fwrd (10.7)
Figure 44.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-40
-30
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0
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30
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70
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09
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17
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Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 CITIGROUP VALUE EARNINGS GROWTH(percent)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual estimates
Forward revenues*
2008 (-35.0)2009 (23.5)2010 (60.3)2011 (10.0)2012 (1.5)2013 (3.7)2014 (1.5)
2015 (-5.6)2016 (-3.3)2017 (8.6)2018 (21.7)2019 (-0.6)2020 (-31.9)2021 (33.6)Fwrd (0.4)
Figure 45.
Growth vs. Value: Earnings Growth
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210
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70
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FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL 2000*(weekly)
P/E capped at 60 due to extreme values.
Russell 2000 (47.2)Russell 2000 Growth (60.0)Russell 2000 Value (26.8)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210
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25
30
35
40
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30
35
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FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR US SMALLCAP *
P/E capped at 35 due to extreme values.
Russell 2000 (35.0)S&P 600 SmallCap (23.7)
* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
Russell Valuation SmallCap, Growth, Value
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228
10
12
14
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22
24
26
28
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FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)
S&P Forward P/EsS&P 500 (22.0)S&P 400 (20.7)S&P 600 (23.8)
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
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7/24
FORWARD P/E RATIO: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*(daily)
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400 (1.063)S&P 500 relative to S&P 600 (0.924)
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
Valuation: SMidCap’s Relative to LargeCap’s
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202150
60
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90
100
110
120
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100
110
120
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FORWARD REVENUES: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*(weekly, indexed to 100 at beginning of data series on 1/15/2004)
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
yardeni.com
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 50.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250
60
70
80
90
100
110
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
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FORWARD EARNINGS: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*(weekly, indexed to 100 at beginning of data series on 1/21/1999)
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
yardeni.com
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 51.
Fwd Revenues & Earnings: SMidCap’s vs. LargeCap’s
Page 29 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15
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S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE REVENUE GROWTH
STRG*Growth (6.7)Value (1.1)Pure Growth (2.8)Pure Value (-0.3)
STRG: 12-month forward consensus expected revenue growth.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 52.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-30
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0
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S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE EARNINGS GROWTHSTEG*
Growth (10.7)Value (0.4)Pure Growth (8.4)Pure Value (-7.1)
STEG: 12-month forward consensus expected earnings growth.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 53.
Fwd Growth: Blended vs. Pure Style
Page 30 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
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S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE FORWARD P/SALES
Growth (3.5)Value (1.4)Pure Growth (3.4)Pure Value (0.5)
* Price divided by forward consensus expected revenues per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 54.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
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20
25
30
7/16S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE FORWARD P/E
Growth (27.7)Value (17.2)Pure Growth (26.9)Pure Value (14.8)
* Price divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 55.
Valuation: Blended vs. Pure Style
Page 31 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
0
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20
30
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30
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S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE LTEGLTEG*
Growth (12.6)Value (4.9)Pure Growth (13.3)Pure Value (0.1)
Figure 56.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
7/16
S&P 500 CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN
Growth (15.1)Value (8.1)Pure Growth (12.6)Pure Value (3.2)
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 57.
LTEG & Fwd Profit Margin: Blended vs. Pure Style
Page 32 / July 24, 2020 / Investment Style Guide www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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