Analytical Politics

Melvin Hinich

1. Citizens have defined tradable property rights

2. A non corrupt judicial system that defends these property rights

3. Local governments with the power to tax for local public services

4. Competitive elections for the executive & legislative branches

7. Protection of civil rights including religious toleration

8. Many people understand how politics affects their interests &there is no something for nothing

6. A stable currency & a sound banking system

A Stable Democracy Requires these 8 Attributes

5. A political balance between the executive & the legislature

One Two Three

A C B

B A C

C B A

A is preferred to B by One & Two

Condorcet’s Counter ExampleCondorcet’s Counter Example

B is preferred to C by One & Three

C is preferred to A by Two & ThreeMajority rule can yield a cycle Majority rule can yield a cycle over the choices!over the choices!

AgendasAgendas

• A versus B - the winner against C

• A versus C - the winner against B

• B versus C - the winner against A

FourFour AlternativesAlternatives

One Two Three

A D C

B A D

C B A

D C B

Four AlternativesFour Alternatives Agendas Agendas

• A versus B - the winner against C - the winner against D• A versus B - the winner against D - the winner against C • A versus C - the winner against B - the winner against D• A versus C - the winner against D - the winner against B• A versus D - the winner against B - the winner against C• A versus D - the winner against C - the winner against B• B versus C - the winner against A - the winner against D• B versus C - the winner against D - the winner against A• B versus C - the winner against A - the winner against D• B versus D - the winner against A - the winner against C• B versus D - the winner against C - the winner against A• C versus D - the winner against A - the winner against B• C versus D - the winner against B - the winner against A

Single Peaked Preference

x Ideal Point

ax

bx dx

cx medianx

Median Ideal Point

1x

2x

's Ideal Point

Circular Preference Preference

cx

1 2,c bx x

bx

ax

Three Individuals with Circular Preferences

Preference ModelPreference Model

• Voters have quadratic utility functions• Voter v's quadratic utility for party p’s

policy position

• Voter ideal position• Party credibility score • Weights -

2 211 1 1 12 1 1 2 2 2 22v vp v v v v v vU c a x a x x x

pθ

1 2,v v vx xx

vpc

11 12, , & v va a

1ix

2ix Ideal Point for Budget 2

Ideal Point for Budget 1

Weighted Euclidean PreferenceWeighted Euclidean Preference

Latent Ideological SpaceLatent Ideological Space1 Issue positions cluster: If I know what you think on defense and environmental policy, I can guess what you think of school lunch subsidies.

2 Shared meaning: This clustering phenomenon is not purely atomistic, so that ideological positions such as “liberal” and “conservative” have similar meanings to different people.

3 Constraint: If the effective space of political conflict is “ideological” in the sense above , the strategies of candidates (and hence the choices for voters) in the policy space are highly constrained.

Communication:To provide voters with a message they can understand and use to makechoices, parties must simplify their message.

Because only broad statements of principles can be used in advertising and position-taking, the latitude for more subtle distinctions and differences is highly circumscribed.

Ideological positions emerge for solving problems of uncertainty and lack of information.

The space evolves as groups struggle to alter the status quo.

The Linear Linkage ModelThe Linear Linkage Model voter i’s ideal point in an issue space

1, ,i i imx x x 1, ,i i imx x x

1, ,i i imx x x

1 , ,pi p i pmiθ i’s perception of candidate p’s issue positions

1 1,p p p π candidate p’s position in a 2D ideological space

1 1 2 2ijp ij ij p ij pb v v

1,...,i i imb bb i’s perception of the status quo policies

Ideal Point on the Ideological SpaceIdeal Point on the Ideological Space

2

ip i p iU

Aθ b v π xUtility function

i i i ii

i i i

z

v A x b

v A v

Liberals

Tories

Navy Budget

Tories - % Duty Liberals - % Duty

% Import Duty

Tories - Navy Budget

Liberals - Navy Budget

Ideological Linkage with Issues - Example 2

Linkage between the Latent Political Space & IssuesLinkage between the Latent Political Space & Issues

Candidate Map for 1992

xbar

Ideal Point Mean

barbara

reps

dems

jesse

buchanan

hillary

gore

quayle

perot

clinton

bush

-130

-110

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

-85 -65 -45 -25 -5 15 35

Candidate Map for 1996

xbar

Ideal Point Mean

kemp

reps

dems

robertson

lamar

gramm

forbes

powell

newt

jesse

buchanan

hillary gore

perot

dole

clinton

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

Candidate Map for 2000

xbar

mccain

reforms

reps

demshillary

cheneylieberman

bradley

nader

buchanan

gwbushgore

clinton

-40

-20

0

20

40

-12 -6 0 6 12

Candidate Map for 2004

gwbush

kerry

nader

cheney

edwards

hillaryclinton

powell

ashcroft

mccaindems

reps

reaganIdeal Point Mean

xbar

-55

-35

-15

5

25

45

-55 -35 -15 5 25

Private Poll - 2007Private Poll - 2007

Lieberman

Nader

BushSr

Heston

Hillary

McCain

Forbes

Powell

RobertsonRushJessieJ

ArnieS

WClarkTKennedy

Dole

Daschle

Edwards

Sharpton

Dean

Kerry

Reagan

Condi CheneyCarter

ClintonGore

Bush

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Candidate Respondent

Political Actor Positioning

IndependentLeft

Center Left

Center

Center-Right

RightBachelet

Arrate

Piñera

Frei

Enriquez-Ominami

IdealRight

Center-RightCenter

Center-Left

Left

Independent

Arrate

Pinera

Frei

Enriquez-Ominami

Lagos

ZaldivarLongueira

Navarro

Lavin

Bachelet

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

May 2009May 2009

BACIdeal

RightCenter-RightCenter

Center-Left

Left

Independent

Arrate

Pinera

Frei

Enriquez-Ominami

Lagos

ZaldivarLongueira

Navarro

Lavin

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Late OctoberLate October