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The author's 2012 capstone study for completion of an MPA degree at Eastern Michigan University.The study analyzes ten years of structure fires and firefighter injuries occurring in Flint, Michigan between 2002 and 2012. The study focuses on determining if a 2007 risk management policy had any effect on firefighter injuries. The study proves a conclusive link between the policy and a subsequent reduction in both the frequency and severity of firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires.
Citation preview
ANALYZING FIREFIGHTER INJURIES AT
VACANT AND ABANDONED BUILDING FIRES
IN FLINT, MICHIGAN BEFORE AND AFTER
IMPLEMENTATION OF A RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY
By
Andrew Graves
Capstone Project
In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of:
Master of Public Administration
Eastern Michigan University
Committee Members:
James Ivers, Ph.D.
Joseph Ohren, Ph.D.
December 2012
Ypsilanti, Michigan
ii
Table of Contents
vi
Acknowledgemen vii
iv
.... v
SECTION 1: 1
1
Statement o 2
3
5
6
9
SECTION 2: LITE 10
Firefighting and Abandoned 10
The Effect of Abandoned Properties 15
19
SECTION 3: METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH DESIGN 20
20
Research Design 21
Data Collection and Ana 22
SECTION 4: FINDINGS - 25
Structure Fire Volume and F 25
Civilian Life Safety and Preservatio 29
iii
30
Complete Work Restriction and Light D 32
37
41
SECTION 5: FINDINGS - 43
43
43
44
45
Comparison of Complete Work Restriction Hours and Costs 47
Comparison of Light Duty Restriction Hours and Costs 50
51
52
53
Post- 56
59
SECTION 6: FINDINGS - GIS 59
Introduction 59
GIS Maps 60
Pre-Policy Fires 61
Post Policy Fires 62
Total Fires 63
Pre-Policy Injuries 64
Post-Policy Injuries 65
Total Injuries 66
iv
Summary 67
SECTION 7: CONCLUSI 67
.. 67
Recommendations for Futur 70
SECTION 8: REFERENCE 72
SECTION 9: APPENDICE 74
Appendix A: Glossary of 74
Appendix B: Sample of MI-OSHA 300 Log of Work- 75
Appendix C: Sample of Excel 76
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Vacant / Abandoned and Occupied Building Fires, 2002 - 26
1. Pre-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires 27
2. Post-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandon 27
3. Percentage of Offensive Attacks at Vacant and A 28
4. 28
5. Post-Fire Property Status, 2002 - 30
6. Rate of Firefighter Injury at Vacant and Abandoned 31
7. Total Cost of Injury-Related Work 33
8. Cost of Injury-Related Light Duty 34
9. Cost of Injury- 34
10. Cost of Burn-Related Complete Wo 39
11. Cost of Burn-Related Light Duty Restriction 39
12. Total Cost of Burn-Related Work R 40
13. Histogram of Pre-Policy Firefigh 54
v
14. Histogram of Post-Policy Firefight 55
15. Histogram of Post-Fire Property Status, Pre-Po 57
16. Histogram of Post-Fire Property Status, Post- 58
17. Pre-Policy Fire Density GIS M 61
18. Post- 62
19. 63
20. Pre- 64
21. Post-Policy Injuries and Fire 65
22. 66
LIST OF TABLES
1. Table of Injury Types an 36
2. Table of Projected Injury Type
vi
Abstract
Fires in vacant and abandoned buildings are frequently the sites of firefighter injuries.
Reducing risk to firefighters during vacant and abandoned building fires was the focus of a 2007
City of Flint Fire Department policy. Many departments across the United States have enacted
similar policies. There is a lack of research to determine if such policies are actually effective in
reducing firefighter injuries.
This study examines quantitative data collected from City of Flint records. The study
focuses on a ten-year period from August 2002 to August 2012. The frequency and cost of
injuries has been calculated during this period. Data from the five-year period preceding the
policy and the five-year period after the policy has been compared and contrasted. This analysis
frequency, severity, and cost of firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires.
vii
Acknowledgments
A special thank you to my wife, Sabrina, and my daughters, Emily and Erica. Their
patience, love, understanding, and support have been wonderful throughout my graduate school
experience and the writing of this capstone.
Thank you to Dr. James Ivers and Dr. Joseph Ohren, the professors for my capstone
committee and frequent teachers throughout the MPA program. It has been a pleasure working
with you.
This capstone would not have been possible without the 2007 policy implemented by the
Flint Fire Department after my initial study of this issue. Thank you to retired Fire Chief Richard
Dicks, retired Assistant Chief Dandre Williams, Dwyna Dunlap, and Alicia Alfaro for assisting
me in the project that became the impetus for this capstone study.
1
Introducti on
Abandoned building fires have become a significant problem for fire departments across
the country. Abandoned buildings present a ready target for arsonists and a hazardous
environment for firefighters. Abandoned buildings have a minimal value to the community even
before they are damaged by fire. Abandoned buildings are havens for crime, blight, and
vandalism that reduce the value of nearby properties.
Firefighters frequently suffer injuries at abandoned building fires. Many fire departments
have addressed this problem through local policies. Norman (2004) expresses concerns that this
problem is only addressed at a local level. There has been little discussion at the state or national
level to inform other fire departments of abandoned building fire issues that are addressed at the
local level.
Flint, Michigan is plagued by frequent fires in vacant and abandoned buildings. Annual
FBI crime statistics gave the city the dubious distinction of being ranked number one in per
capita arson for cities over 100,000 in population in 2010 and 2011 (Harris, 2012).
A high rate of firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires was identified in
a 2007 study that examined fires occurring in Flint over a one-year period. The rate of firefighter
injury at abandoned building fires in Flint far exceeded the national average cited by Ahrens
(2007). The Flint Fire Department responded to the study by creating and implementing a policy
to manage firefighter risk at vacant and abandoned building fires.
2
Statement of the Problem
Fire departments experience a high rate of firefighter injury at vacant and abandoned
building fires. In order to reduce firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires, risk
management policies should be implemented by fire departments. A risk versus reward analysis
should be conducted by incident commanders prior to committing firefighters to interior
operations at vacant and abandoned building fires.
Many fire departments have addressed vacant and abandoned building fires at the local
level. There is a great body of research linking vacant and abandoned building fires to a high rate
of firefighter injury. However, there is very little research to determine the effectiveness of local
fire department vacant and abandoned building policies.
Without a risk management policy for vacant and abandoned buildings, fire departments
will continue to expose firefighters to unnecessary risks and incur a high rate of injury. Adopting
risk management policies for vacant and abandoned building fires will reduce firefighter injuries
and improve departmental efficiency.
This research project examines the effectiveness of the 2007 Flint Fire Department risk
management policy for vacant and abandoned buildings. The findings of this study show a sharp
decrease in the both the frequency and severity of firefighter injuries after the policy was
implemented.
3
Background
Flint, Michigan is an urban city covering a 34.1 square mile area located 70 miles north
of Detroit. The city was incorporated in 1855. Flint began an ascent from modest beginnings to
become a major hub of the automotive industry in the early 1900s. Flint became the home of the
Buick Motor Company, General Motors, AC Spark Plug, and several other automotive
companies. It was a major site of Chevrolet automobile manufacturing.
factories once employed 80,000 people. In the late 1960s, a pattern of downturn began.
Manufacturing jobs moved away from Flint and the city began experiencing economic pressure
amidst declining population and tax base.
Many automotive factories were closed and eventually demolished. The General Motors
workforce dwindled to an estimated 8,000 employees by
decreased nearly in half, with the 2010 Census finding 102,434 residents. Population loss
and income tax decreased 36% in East Cleveland, Ohio following a decade of population loss.
The Flint Fire Department protects the city. The Department has seen a similar pattern of
stations with nearly 300 fire suppression personnel. The diminishing tax base caused numerous
layoffs, station closings, and staffing reductions through attrition.
Today, the Department staffs four fire stations with 86 fire suppression personnel, 39
funded by a federal grant due to expire in 2014. The city is currently seeking a public safety
millage to retain the federally funded staff in case the grant expires. Without the millage or an
extension of federal funding, the Department will likely see further reductions in staffing and
services.
4
Structure fire call volume has steadily increased over the last several decades.
Department records show that it responded to 369 structure fire calls in 1970. In 2011, the
Department responded to 945 structure fire calls. One of the most significant factors in the sharp
increase in fire volume is the dramatic rise in the number of abandoned buildings.
The population exodus from Flint has left behind thousands of vacant and abandoned
buildings; 2010 US Census data showed that Flint was second only to hurricane-ravaged New
Orleans in population loss since 2000. Abandoned buildings present a readily available,
unguarded target for arsonists. Flint has seen vacant and abandoned building fires rise from 35%
of total structure fires in 2003 to 60% of total structure fires in 2012.
Abandoned buildings are a drain on community resources and services. Accordino (2002)
describes a steadily worsening pattern when population loss occurs. Neighborhoods transition
from owner-based homes to landlord-based rental occupancies. Less valuable properties are
eventually abandoned, resulting in mortgage foreclosure and / or property tax default.
The abandoned buildings still demand police, fire, and code enforcement services while
providing little or no tax revenue to the community. Rule (2001) argues that abandoned buildings
have no value unless they are repaired to an inhabitable condition or demolished. Griswold and
Norris (2007) found that a demolition program targeting abandoned buildings in Flint increased
the property tax base by over $112 million.
Abandoned building fires represent a significant hazard to firefighters. Abandoned
buildings are neglected and commonly in a state of disrepair. Exposure to the elements,
vandalism, looting, and recurring fires cause structural hazards and instability. Fires in
abandoned buildings are often intentionally set using accelerants. The lack of legal occupants
5
and incendiary ignition create more advanced, more dangerous conditions for firefighters than
would be typically be found in an accidental occupied building fire.
Ahrens (2007) found that vacant and abandoned buildings were the source of 6% of
national fire calls, but were the source of 13% of firefighter injuries. Graves (2007) found that in
Flint, 62% of firefighter injuries over a one-year period occurred at vacant and abandoned
buildings. As a result of the Graves study, Flint implemented a policy to reduce firefighter risk at
vacant and abandoned building fires.
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a 2007 City of Flint Fire
Department policy on vacant and abandoned building fires. Advocating for the more frequent use
of defensive operations (See Glossary, Appendix A) at vacant and abandoned buildings has been
very controversial within the fire service. Critics within the fire service argue that defensive
operations cause undue risk of injury or death to civilians who may be trapped in a burning
vacant or abandoned building. Critics cite that there is no way to know if a burning building is
truly vacant unless firefighters immediately search it.
Advocates within the fire service argue that defensive operations balance the risk that
firefighters are exposed to against the minimal chances of civilians being in a burning vacant or
abandoned building. Advocates cite that all buildings are searched for potential victims, but in
the vacant or abandoned building, searches take place after the fire has been largely controlled
and risk concerns addressed.
There has been discussion at the national level regarding minimizing firefighter risks at
vacant and abandoned buildings. Notably, the National Institution for Occupational Safety and
6
Health released a safety alert to the fire service in 2009. The alert issues recommendations on
firefighter risk management at unoccupied buildings. However, at the local level, many fire
departments have not addressed vacant and abandoned building fires through policy change.
Norman (2007) expressed concerns that policy change at the local level is typically borne from
tragedy.
This study furthers the knowledge on the subject of firefighter injuries at vacant and
abandoned building fires. Based on this case study of Flint, Michigan, it is hoped that
information gained within this locality can be used to foster discussion of this issue among fire
service professionals and public administrators at the local, state, and national level.
Research Questions
The goal of this study is to collect and analyze data on fires and firefighter injuries in
Flint to assess the effectiveness of the 2007 risk management policy. The study utilizes
quantitative analysis to determine if any measurable changes have occurred in Department
injuries and operations after the policy was implemented. The following research questions serve
to guide the analysis:
1. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on the frequency of
firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires?
This question is a primary focus of this study. In 2007, the Graves study found that
7
writing for the National Fire Protection Association, found that the national average rate of
firefighter injury at vacant buildings was 3.7 injuries per 100 fires.
2. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on the severity of
firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires?
This question is also a primary focus of this study. The 2007 Graves study found that
vacant and abandoned building fires constituted 40% of Department fire call volume and that
vacant and abandoned building fires caused 62% of firefighter injuries. The study found that 21
injuries at vacant or abandoned building fires caused 3,112 hours lost to injury compensation
time. Correspondingly, 13 injuries at occupied buildings caused 768 hours lost to injury
compensation time. This study assesses fifteen categories of firefighter injuries to compare and
contrast severity before and after the policy.
3. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on the cost to the City
for firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires?
This question is also a primary focus of this study. The City incurred a high rate of cost
from injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires in the 2007 study. In this study, the hours an
injured employee spent on complete work restriction and light duty restriction have been
collected from city records. Quantitative analysis will examine whether costs related to injury
have changed after the policy was implemented. The issue of cost is of interest beyond the fire
8
service; municipal risk managers, budget officials, and workers compensation officials have a
considerable interest in this question.
Collection of injury cost data did not include overtime costs that may have been incurred
due to a firefighter injury. Records of daily staffing levels and overtime costs are not complete or
available for the period of this study. An attempt to recreate daily staffing levels and potential
overtime costs would be likely be purely speculative.
ee were also not
assessed in the study. The City utilizes a third party claims service, Eagle Claims Management,
a written release would need to be obtained from the City and each individual employee subject
to inquiry. For the 10-year timeframe of this study, obtaining releases from 155 employees who
suffered an injury would be incomplete and overly burdening on time needed to complete this
project.
4. Did the 2007 risk management policy have any measurable effect on firefighting
strategies used at vacant and abandoned building fires?
The goal of the policy was to reduce firefighter injuries by altering firefighting strategies
at vacant and abandoned building fires. Using internal fire records, the firefighting strategy used
at each vacant and abandoned building fire during the study period was quantified. The analysis
is designed to determine if there has been any measurable change in firefighting strategies, and
whether there is a correlation between a change in firefighting strategies and firefighter injuries.
9
The implementation of the policy was a cultural change for the Department. Prior to the
policy, all buildings were treated the same regardless of state of occupancy. There was some
initial resistance to this cultural change. The research aims to answer whether a six-page policy
and three one-hour training sessions can affect decades of existing Department culture.
5. What has happened to vacant and abandoned properties in Flint after a fire incident?
The two primary goals of firefighting are saving lives and preserving property.
Firefighters take personal risk upon themselves to accomplish those two goals. Risks are taken
by firefighters to preserve property with the unspoken expectation that a property owner will
benefit from that risk and effort.
In Flint, there is a high frequency of fires in vacant and abandoned buildings. Utilizing
City property tax records and site visitations, vacant and abandoned properties that burned during
the study period were assessed. The status of property affected by fire was quantified, and the
analysis is designed to examine whether vacant and abandoned buildings that burn are repaired
and re-occupied or if they are demolished. This question is important to answer since it will help
guide fire incident commanders in risk management decisions at vacant and abandoned building
fires.
(NFIRS) records. The NFIRS system allows buildings to be classified by code number as under
construction, occupied, idle and not routinely used, under major renovation, vacant and secured,
10
vacant and unsecured, being demolished, other, or undetermined. There is no specific
classification to identify an abandoned building. There is no widely accepted standard way to
identify an abandoned building among NFIRS users. Fires in abandoned buildings are most often
classified by reporting officers in Flint as vacant and secured or vacant and unsecured.
that has an owner
but no permanent occupants, with reasonable efforts being made to preserve its value and
legal occupants and is negle
Flint, 2007).
abandoned buildings. Abandoned buildings are the prime focus of this study. However, there is
no certain way to know if a property was actually vacant or abandoned under the 2007 policy
Literature Review
Firefighting and Abandoned Buildings
well known to firefighters across the United States and the world. Brannigan wrote his treatise on
building construction to warn firefighters of the danger of structural collapse. First published in
1971, his work emphasized a thorough knowledge of building design and construction in order to
improve firefighter safety. Today, his lesson can be applied to a scourge of unsafe structures
11
plaguing communities: the abandoned building. A byproduct of economic downturn, population
loss, collapse of the housing market and other factors, abandoned buildings present a unique
challenge to firefighters.
Dunn writes that the abandoned building presents more significant hazards to firefighters
than occupied buildings. He warns that complacency among firefighters in their approach to
abandoned building fires can have deadly consequences. Dunn argues that firefighters have not
sufficiently recognized that abandoned buildings are a specific hazard. A retired New York City
Successful risk management requires identifying workplace hazards as a first step. Dunn
points out that abandoned buildings are frequently the site of multiple fire incidents. With each
Ahrens (2009) surveyed vacant and abandoned building fires occurring nationally
between 2002 and 2006. He found that 4,500 firefighters suffered injuries at vacant and
abandoned buildings during the period. Nationally, vacant and abandoned buildings represented
6% of total structure fires, yet caused 13% of total firefighter injuries, and 15 firefighters were
fatally injured. Ahrens also found that 57% of fires in unsecured vacant and abandoned buildings
were intentionally set.
Abandoned buildings are subject to decay, may not comply with building codes, and are
to rapid fire spread into load-bearing components. Ahrens recommends that fire departments
partner with local housing organizations to help identify abandoned properties.
12
Karter (2012) studied firefighter injuries occurring nationally between 2005 and 2009.
Karter utilized NFIRS data that is the same format as utilized by this researcher. He identified
33,950 firefighter injuries during that period; 27,170 of these injuries, 81%, occurred at
properties that were occupied, and 4,635 injuries, 13%, occurred at vacant properties. Karter and
Ahrens found a national injury rate that is consistent between two separate studies.
Norman writes that the most dangerous building for firefighting is the vacant or
abandoned building. He states that the rate of firefighter fatality is five times higher for vacant
and abandoned buildings than occupied buildings.
Norman mentions that the Fire Department of New York City changed its policy towards
381).
The life hazard at a vacant or abandoned building fire is almost always exclusively to the
firefighters called to respond to it. Norman laments that the lesson of vacant and abandoned
son
has only been learned locally, for it is still common in some areas for casualties to occur in
buildings that are in such poor condition that they were barely standing prior to the fire and
p. 11).
The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) issues standards for many facets of
firefighting. NFPA 1500 addresses firefighter occupational safety and health. It was the first
standard to directly address risk management for firefighters operating at building fires. NFPA
1500 applies to all buildings, whether occupied, vacant, or abandoned. The standard recommends
that all fire departments utilize the following rules of engagement:
13
1. What is the survival profile of any victims in the involved compartment?
2. We will not risk our lives at all for a building or lives that are already lost.
3. We may only risk our lives a little, in a calculated manner, to save savable
property.
4. We may risk our lives a lot, in a calculated manner, to save savable lives
(NFPA, 2002).
The standard suggests that when there is no savable life or property involved, the
implementation of defensive strategies is the appropriate choice. At fires in vacant and
abandoned buildings, the chance of firefighters encountering a savable life or savable property is
minimal.
Rule discusses a particularly tragic fire that occurred in Worcester, Massachusetts in
1999. In this incident, firefighters responded to a fire in an abandoned cold storage warehouse.
Firefighters received reports that two homeless people may have still been in the building. Six
firefighters were killed as a result of searching for the homeless persons.
The homeless persons were later found safely away from the building and were charged
with arson. Rule states that the conditions in Worcester at this fire are a nationwide phenomenon.
from vacant buildings unless they are renovated to co
and abandoned buildings pose a direct threat to the safety of firefighters. Rule argues that fire
departments must manage that risk by having plans and policies in place to address vacant and
abandoned buildings.
Jones (2001) advocates fire prevention as the best practice for reducing vacant and
abandoned building fires. Communities should seek to properly secure access to abandoned
buildings. Locking or boarding up entryways prevents trespassing and the potential for arson.
Once secured, a community should focus on rehabilitation of viable properties and demolition of
properties that are not salvageable.
14
Jones suggests that fire companies keep a list of abandoned properties that are located
within their response districts. Abandoned buildings should be clearly marked with an
abandoned building is safe for firefighters to enter.
refighting operations can be conducted
operations can be conducted with extreme caution. Jones echoes Dunn and Norman, stating
he most important concept that firefighters and command officers must understand when
responding to fires involving vacant and abandoned buildings is that the buildings themselves are
inherently dangerous
Graves studied firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings in Flint, Michigan.
Examining a one-year period of fires, Graves found that vacant and abandoned buildings
accounted for 40% of fire call volume. Vacant and abandoned buildings were the source of 62%
of total firefighter injuries in Flint, far exceeding the 13% finding of Ahrens and the 14% finding
found by Karter in a national study of data from 2005 through 2009. Ahrens also found a
national average of 6% vacant and abandoned building fire volume in a national study examining
data between 2003 through 2006.
Vacant and abandoned building fires in Flint resulted in 3,112 hours lost due to
firefighter injury in the timeframe of the 2007 Graves study. In contrast, occupied buildings
resulted in 768 hours lost due to firefighter injury. Exposing firefighters to the risk of vacant and
abandoned buildings did not yield a significant preservation of property. During the period
surveyed, firefighters made 136 offensive attacks (See Glossary, Appendix A) at vacant and
15
abandoned building fires. All but five of those properties were still abandoned or had been
demolished at the time of the study.
Graves advocates that firefighters utilize risk management procedures published in
National Fire Protection Association industry standards. Fires in vacant and abandoned
properties must be treated differently than fires in occupied buildings. He argues that fires in
that is waiting to injure and
The Effect of Abandoned Properties on a Community
Communities experiencing growth in abandoned properties follow a consistent pattern
that has been identified in the literature. As people move out of a community, their former homes
are left behind. A transition occurs from an owner-based occupancy to a renter-based occupancy.
As a neighborhood continues to deteriorate, rent amounts that can be demanded by landlords
decrease. Valuable properties are acquired and lower valued properties end up abandoned.
.
302). A house that has no owner falls into disrepair. Mortgage obligations are left unmet,
resulting in default or foreclosure. Property tax obligations are not paid, also leading to a loss of
ownership. Abandoned buildings represent a net loss to a community. They present a need for
services from police, fire, and code enforcement departments while providing little or no revenue
to the community via taxes.
Griswold and Norris (2007) published a study on the effect of vacant buildings on the
property values of neighboring houses in Flint, Michigan. The automotive industry and post-
16
World War Two economy propelled Flint to become one of the most prosperous cities in the
ation
eroded from a high of nearly 200,000 in 1960 to just over 100,000 today.
The Genesee County Land Bank (GCLB) began a program of acquiring abandoned
housing property in 2002. The GCLB obtains title to properties via auction. Viable properties are
rehabilitated and returned to the property tax base. Dilapidated properties are demolished.
Griswold and Norris They
found that an abandoned property has a negative effect on any other property located within
1,500 feet. During the 2002 2005 period of study, the GCLB demolished 434 houses which had
a 1,500 foot field of effect on 26,197 other properties. The GCLB spent $3.5 million on
demolition efforts. Griswold regression stud
program increased property values on 26,197 affected properties by a total of $112,528,793. The
demolished.
Rule (2000) also found a connection between the local tax base and abandoned buildings.
Vacant buildings represent a minimal tax revenue base and demolition should not be delayed by
the perception that the tax base will erode. Instead, he argues that the land is more valuable for
economic development if it's vacant than if a dilapidated structure sits there
The City of Flint has an active demolition program. Inspectors visit vacant and
abandoned buildings in response to citizen complaints. Inspectors are also notified by the Fire
17
to repair exceeds the current market value of a structure, the decision is made to proceed with
Zook examined abandoned properties and their effect on East Cleveland, Ohio. He argues
This hazard must be reduced, if
reduce the tax base. Local government revenues are affected by a diminishing tax base, straining
the ability to provide government services.
The property tax base of East Cleveland decreased 24% between 2000 and 2008 as the
city suffered population loss and property abandonment. Income taxes fell 36% during the same
juries occurred during
operations at vacant building fires.
Ley (2010) studied vacant building fires in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He mentioned that a
spike in arson rates typically follows a wave of foreclosures. Milwaukee, like numerous cities,
has suffered from the current and ongoing foreclosure crisis. Milwaukee has had a series of
policies developed to address vacant buildings. The first policy, implemented in 1967, focused
on elimination of blighted buildings.
A 1989 policy focused on boarding up unsecured abandoned buildings. Ordinances were
adopted in 2001 to tighten restrictions on vacant and abandoned buildings. Milwaukee has seen a
progressive decrease in frequency of abandoned building fires. Peaking at 758 incidents in 1968,
vacant building fires dropped below 100 for the first time in 2002.
Hollander (2008) studied land use changes associated with population loss in Flint,
Michigan. He argues that population loss is a widespread problem for major cities. Shrinking of
cities is an alternative strategy Hollander examines.
18
Through calculation of housing unit density in three Flint neighborhoods, Hollander
found that individual neighborhoods react to population loss differently. Hollander suggests that
census data, updated every ten years, is not sufficient to measure population changes that happen
on a much faster scale. Hollander ties population loss to neighborhood stability.
Neighborhoods that do not downsize in accordance with population loss see a rise in
number of abandoned buildings. The
2010, p. 137). Demand for housing in deteriorating neighborhoods falls to the point that many
homeowners simply abandon their properties. In addition to becoming havens for crime,
abandoned buildings become targets for arson.
Two of the three neighborhoods Hollander studied reacted to population loss by changing
from high-density to low-density neighborhoods. Dilapidated housing stock was removed. Land
formerly occupied by dilapidated housing was acquired by neighboring property owners to
expand their individual lots. Block clubs and community groups also acquired empty land to use
for gardens and parks. These two neighborhoods experienced lower crime rates and higher levels
of community involvement.
The third neighborhood examined did not react quickly to population loss. It remains
high-density, unstable, and with a prevalence of abandoned houses. High crime rates and a
prevalence of landlord-
housing density in concurrence with population loss led to more stable, safer, and more
satisfactory neighborhoods.
Hirokawa and Gonzales (2010) assessed methods used by cities to regulate vacant
property. The study analyzed cities that had identified a correlation between vacant property and
19
the onset of blight. They argue that the public cost of vacant property is persistent and
unaffordable. City policies and ordinances are a means of controlling the public cost of vacant
property.
A primary aim of many vacant building ordinances is to identify and track vacant
property. A property owner is required by these ordinances to register the vacant property with
their local government. A registration fee is paid, with funds assisting in paying for inspection
and code enforcement.
Ordinances require property owners to maintain vacant buildings or face fines and
penalties. Some ordinances require the property owner to carry general liability insurance on the
vacant property. Ordinances on vacant buildings are a strikes an appropriate
balance between the rights of property owners and t
and Gonzales, 2010, p 637).
Summary
Vacant and abandoned buildings are a significant problem to fire departments and
communities across the country. The value of an abandoned building within its community has
changed. An abandoned building formerly represented a potentially repairable structure. The
downturn in the housing market and depopulation trends in urban centers has caused abandoned
buildings to now primarily represent a drain on tight budget resources and danger to firefighters.
Abandoned buildings are havens for crime and reduce property values of neighboring occupied
properties.
Fire departments, either individually or as a whole in the fire service, should proactively
address abandoned buildings within their community. Risk management procedures are
20
advocated for fire operations at abandoned buildings throughout the literature. Systems to
identify and mark abandoned buildings with visible warnings to firefighters have been
implemented in some communities. The NFPA has created national standards for operations at
abandoned buildings. Local fire departments are encouraged to adopt these standards to improve
fireground efficiency and firefighter safety.
Communities can enhance their neighborhoods by proactively and aggressively
responding to abandoned buildings. Griswold and Norris found dramatic improvements in
property values in Flint, Michigan after blighted, abandoned buildings were demolished. There is
an agreement in the literature that abandoned buildings reduce the property tax base. Ordinances
and policies to track abandoned homes are effective. Hollander identified that prompt
community reaction to depopulation can prevent blight during the transition from high-density
housing to low-density housing. Demolition of abandoned housing stock should be conducted to
improve property values, reduce blight, reduce crime and arson, and enhance the quality of life in
urban neighborhoods.
Methodology and Research Design
Introduction
This study examines firefighter injury rates and frequency at vacant and abandoned
building fires before and after implementation of the vacant and abandoned building policy. The
Department began implementation of its vacant and abandoned building policy on August 28,
2007. The study examines a 10-year period of structure fires from August 27, 2002 through
August 27, 2012.
21
A limitation of this study is that it is a case study. The study examines a limited
population within one fire department. Fire departments in urban environments are similar. The
results of the study, while sampling a limited population, may be generalized to the broader
population of other urban fire departments.
Research Design
This project utilizes a pre-test / post-test group research model design. This research
model was the best option for this project based on available data. The research examines two
population groups.
The pre-test group, Group A, existed chronologically before the post-test group, Group B.
There is a relationship existing between Group A and Group B. Both groups are samples of the
same population performing during separate time periods. Group A and Group B are
interdependent and could not exist without each other. Data from both groups were easily and
reasonably measurable. Group B was subjected to a treatment, in this case, the 2007 risk
management policy.
The population of the study is firefighters working for the City of Flint Fire Department.
The study surveys structure fires and firefighter injuries occurring between August 27, 2002 and
August 27, 2012. The pre-test group, Group A, is structure fires and firefighter injuries occurring
between August 27, 2002 and August 27, 2007. The post-test group, Group B, is structure fires
and firefighter injuries occurring between August 28, 2007 and August 27, 2012. The study
examines what happened to the groups before and after the treatment.
22
There is a research theory existing between the two groups that the treatment policy
caused measurable changes. The model theory in this case is that there is a measurable change in
injuries between the two groups. The relationship between the groups has been controlled for all
other foreseeable factors.
Data Collection and Analysis
For this study, data were collected from the City's New World Systems AEGIS Fire
Records software. Upon conclusion of a structure fire incident, the reporting officer enters data
about the fire incident into the records system. The data were reviewed and compiled into an
Excel database. Data were recorded into Excel about the following subject areas:
The date of the incident
The time the incident occurred
The internal Department run number for the incident
The street address or intersection of the incident
Whether the affected structure was vacant or occupied
What firefighting strategy and tactics were utilized at the incident:
An offensive fire attack at a vacant building
A defensive fire operation at a vacant building
A transitional fire operation at a vacant building
An incipient stage fire at a vacant building
Fire affecting only the exterior of a vacant building
Fire occurred at an occupied building
Whether the incident occurred before or after the 2007 policy
23
Whether a firefighter injury occurred during the incident
The number of firefighter(s) injured during the incident
The rank of the injured firefighter(s)
The hourly pay rate of the injured firefighter(s)
Injury data were collected from the City's Employee Health Clinic. The Clinic records
data about firefighter injuries on the MI-OSHA 300 Log of Work-Related Injuries and Illnesses
Form. Data were recorded from these forms into Excel in the following areas:
The type of injury suffered by the firefighter(s)
The number of 8-hour days the firefighter was on complete work restriction and
unable to work
The number of 8-hour days the firefighter was on a light duty work assignment
The total cost of complete work restriction time
The total cost of light duty work assignment time
The combined total cost of complete work restriction and light duty time
The cost of injuries was calculated by multiplying the affected employee's hourly pay rate
by the total number of hours on work restriction or light duty. Injuries were separated into one of
fifteen different categories depending on the nature of the injury.
The City's property tax website (http://cityofflint.com/propertytaxes/search.asp) was
reviewed between August 29, 2012 and September 4, 2012. The City lists the current status of
properties on this website. For each property classified as vacant by the reporting officer, the
property tax records were reviewed. The status of the property was entered into Excel as follows:
The affected property has been demolished
The affected property is currently on the City's Demolition List
24
The affected property is posted as not inhabitable until repaired to code
The affected property still contains an improved structure
The property status review comprised 2,095 separate properties; 213 properties were
listed as improved. To determine the status of improved properties, site visits were conducted at
each of the 213 improved properties between August 29, 2012 and September 4, 2012. The
properties were visually inspected from the street or sidewalk. Properties listed as 'improved' in
the database were re-categorized in Excel as follows after site visits:
The affected property is currently occupied by residents
The affected property is currently vacant and reasonably maintained
The affected property is currently abandoned and dilapidated
During site visits, assumptions were made to determine if the property was vacant or
abandoned. Properties that showed any reasonable sign of recently being cared for were listed as
vacant. Properties that were found unsecured, boarded up, lacking energy utility connections, or
in a visible state of dilapidated disrepair were listed as abandoned.
Within the Excel database are 2,578 fire incidents at 2,095 separate vacant or abandoned
properties. Many properties were the site of multiple responses.
One example of multiple responses is 1921 Burns. Firefighters responded to this
abandoned building for fire incidents on fifteen separate occasions. This structure has been
demolished. Within the property status section of the database, 1921 Burns is recorded as
demolished only once so as not to skew final statistics on property status.
Each building that received multiple responses was classified to show a property status
once. Other property status entries for that property were left blank. An exception to this
procedure is occupied houses that burned once, were subsequently vacated, and then burned
25
again as a vacant structure. Those were classified once as an occupied structure and once as a
vacant structure. Multiple occupancy structures like apartment buildings and trailer parks were
classified individually for each incident.
A limitation of the property review is that the status of properties is dynamic and can
change. The property status listed in the database is a snapshot of time reflecting data collected
between August 29, 2012 and September 4, 2012. Structures listed for demolition will eventually
be demolished. Structures listed as posted may be either repaired and reoccupied or demolished.
Properties that have had structures demolished may at some time in the future have a new
structure built upon them. The property status information is intended to illustrate what happened
to a vacant or abandoned property within the 10-year timeframe of the study.
The Excel database was converted for use with SPSS. Alphabetical data was reclassified
as numerical data. Variables were added to represent all data over the ten-year period. Separate
variables were added to split the total data into pre-policy and post-policy sections. A variety of
statistical analyses were conducted on the data.
Findings - Excel Analysis
Structure Fire Volume and Firefighting Tactics
Analysis of the data in Excel shows distinctive changes between the pre-policy and post-
policy periods. The City of Flint Fire Department responded to 5,233 working fires during the
10-year survey period. 2,578 working fires occurred in vacant or abandoned buildings; 2,655
working fires occurred in occupied buildings. There was a marked increase in vacant and
abandoned building fires in the post-policy period; 1,623 vacant and abandoned building fires
occurred in the post-policy period compared to 955 in the pre-policy period, a 70% increase.
26
Vacant and abandoned building fires represented 41% of total structure fires in the pre-
policy period. Vacant and abandoned building fires increased to 56% of total structure fires in
the post-policy period. Vacant and abandoned building fires at their lowest annual frequency
represented 35% of total structure fires in 2003. Vacant and abandoned building fires at their
highest annual frequency represented 63% of total structure fires in 2010. The following chart
depicts vacant, abandoned, and occupied building fires during the survey period.
Firefighting tactics utilized at vacant and abandoned buildings changed in the post-policy
period. Offensive attacks at vacant and abandoned buildings decreased from 68% to 45%.
Defensive operations increased from 15% to 30%. Transitional operations (See Glossary,
Appendix A) increased from 3% to 10%. Structure fires at which incipient or exterior fire
conditions were found were essentially unchanged between pre- and post-policy periods. The
charts below illustrate the change in firefighting tactics at vacant building fires before and after
the policy.
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Vacant / Abandoned and Occupied Building Fires, 2002 - 2012
Vacant / Abandoned Occupied
27
Offensive attacks have decreased from being the primary strategy of choice. An
examination of tactics over the 10-year study period shows a steady change in firefighting
strategy. In 2003, offensive attacks were used 77% of the time at vacant and abandoned building
fires. By 2012, offensive attacks decreased to 33% at vacant and abandoned building fires. The
68%15%
10%4%
3%
Pre-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires
Offensive Defensive Incipient Exterior Transitional
45%
30%
10%
5%10%
Post-Policy Tactics at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires
Offensive Defensive Incipient Exterior Transitional
28
year 2012 was the first in which defensive strategies were the most frequently used strategy at
vacant and abandoned buildings. The following charts illustrate the changes in firefighting
tactics over the 10-year survey period.
Percentage of Offensive Attacks at
Vacant and Abandoned Buildings 2002 - 2012
52%
77% 77%
63%67%
60% 57%
48% 46%38%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Percentage of Defensive Operations at
Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires 2002 - 2012
21%
13%
8%
13%
19% 20%23%
26%
31% 30%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
29
Civilia n Life Safety and Preservation of Property
The two primary goals of firefighting are saving lives and preserving property. A review
of fire records finds that the chances of a civilian being injured or killed during a vacant or
abandoned building fire in Flint are exceedingly minimal.
In the survey period, there were 2,578 working fires at vacant and abandoned buildings.
There were four documented records of a civilian injury or fatality at a vacant or abandoned
building fire during the ten years studied. These four cases represent 0.16% of all vacant and
abandoned building fires. At the remaining 99.84% of vacant and abandoned building fires
occurring in the study period, the life hazard risk is exclusively to the firefighters that respond.
Firefighters responded to 2,578 separate fire incidents at 2,095 vacant or abandoned
properties. A review of City property tax records and site visits to these properties found that:
1,352 properties have been demolished (64.5%)
412 properties are currently on the active City demolition list (19.7%)
118 properties are posted as uninhabitable until brought up to code (5.6%)
77 properties were found in a dilapidated, abandoned condition (3.7%)
113 properties were found in a reasonably maintained vacant condition (5.4%)
23 properties were found to be occupied (1.1%)
The following chart depicts the status of a vacant or abandoned property experiencing a
fire during the study period.
30
Fires in vacant or abandoned buildings represent a minimal chance of preserving a viable
property. During the study period, 93.5% of vacant buildings suffering a fire incident were not
repaired or rehabilitated.
The findings of this study emphasize that fire command officers should utilize NFPA
1500 recommendations on risk versus reward when committing firefighters to interior operations
at abandoned buildings. Over the 10-year period of this study, an abandoned building fire
represented a 0.16% chance of a civilian involvement and a 6.5% chance of a property being
preserved.
Firefighter Injur ies at Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires
During the 10-year survey period, a total of 155 firefighters suffered injuries at vacant or
abandoned building fires. The number of firefighter injuries was nearly evenly split before and
after the policy; 76 injuries occurred in the pre-policy period, and 79 injuries occurred in the
post-policy period. At first glance, this would appear to indicate that the policy was not effective
1352
412
118 77 113 23
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Demolished Demolition List
Posted Abandoned Vacant Occupied
Post-Fire Property Status 2002 - 2012
31
in reducing firefighter injuries. A closer examination reveals that there has been a notable change
in the frequency and severity of firefighter injuries
The National Fire Protection Association reports that the national average for firefighter
injuries is 3.7 per 100 vacant building fires. In Flint, the rate of injury during the survey period is
represented in the following chart.
Rate of Firefighter Injury per 100 Vacant and
Abandoned Building Fires
3.6
6
10.5
7.5
9.6
6.4
7.8
5.6
44.5 4.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
There has been a decrease in the rate of firefighter injuries. With the exception of the 4-
month portion of 2002 within the survey, the lowest rates of injury were encountered in the post-
policy period. During policy implementation, there was some initial resistance to increasing
defensive operations by some firefighters and command officers. Over time, the acceptance of
the change to defensive measures being the best tactical option has been successful. As
evidenced in the above chart, injury rates remained high through 2008 and then have shown a
stable pattern of reduction.
It should be noted that while the number of injuries remained consistent in the pre- and
post-policy periods, the number of vacant and abandoned building fires did not. There were 76
injuries at 955 vacant and abandoned building fires before the policy, an injury rate of 8.0 per
32
100 vacant and abandoned building fires. There were 79 injuries at 1,623 vacant and abandoned
building fires after the policy, an injury rate of 4.9 per 100 vacant and abandoned building fires.
Complete Work Restriction and Light Duty Restriction
Firefighter injuries result in two types of injury-related time off duty. The two types are
complete work restriction and light duty restriction.
Firefighters on complete work restriction are not able to work in any form. Firefighters
on light duty restriction may work in a reduced capacity but may not engage in firefighting
activities. Light duty work restriction involves administrative or clerical assignments until the
injured firefighter has recovered completely and is restored to firefighting duties.
Employee Health Clinic -
Related Injuries and Illness forms were collected. The number of eight-hour days on complete
work restriction and light duty restriction is entered on the OSHA 300 form. The injured
urly salary was multiplied by the number of hours listed as being on complete or
light duty restriction. The results were tabulated for complete work restriction hours, light duty
restriction hours, and total hours for each injury.
In the 10-year survey period, 155 firefighter injuries at vacant building fires resulted in a
cost of $374,272 for complete and light duty restriction hours. In the pre-policy period, 76
injuries cost a total of $236,905 for complete and light duty restriction. In the post-policy period,
79 injuries cost a total of $137,367 for complete and light duty restriction.
The average pre-policy cost of complete and light duty restriction was $3,117 per injury.
The average post-policy cost of complete and light duty restriction was $1,739 per injury. The
33
post-policy period saw a reduction of $1,379 in the average total cost per injury. The following
chart depicts pre-policy and post-policy total costs.
The City incurred a total cost of $235,301 for light duty restriction hours. In the pre-
policy period, light duty restriction cost a total of $121,482 or $1,598 per injury. In the post-
policy period, light duty restriction cost a total of $113,819 or $1,441 per injury. The post-policy
period saw a reduction of $157 in the average cost of light duty restriction per injury. The chart
below depicts pre-policy and post-policy light duty costs.
64%
36%
Total Cost of Injury-Related Work Restriction
Pre-Policy Post-Policy
34
The City incurred a total cost of $138,971 for complete work restriction hours. In the pre-
policy period, complete work restriction cost a total of $115,423 or $1,519 per injury. In the
post-policy period, complete work restriction cost a total of $23,548 or $298 per injury. The
post-policy period saw a reduction in the cost of complete work restriction of $91,875. The
average cost of complete work restriction decreased by $1,221 in the post-policy period. The
chart below depicts pre-policy and post-policy complete work restriction costs.
52%
48%
Cost of Injury-Related Light Duty Restriction
Pre-Policy Post-Policy
84%
16%
Cost of Injury-Related Complete Work Restriction
Pre-Policy Post-Policy
35
Injuries in the post-policy period were less frequent and less severe than in the pre-policy
period. The drastic reduction in the cost of complete work restriction time while structure fire
volume dramatically increased illustrates the effectiveness of the policy.
Firefighter injuries were classified into 15 measurable categories, including abdominal
strains, back strains, burns, cardiac conditions, contusions, debris in eye, dental injuries, electric
shock, extremity strains, fractures, heat exhaustion, lacerations, multiple injuries, puncture
wounds, and smoke inhalation.
The following table details pre-policy and post-policy injuries and costs by injury
category. In each paired column, green indicates the lower cost or value. Yellow indicates no
change in cost or value, while red indicates a higher cost or value.
36
Injury
Type
Number,
Pre-
Policy
Number,
Post-
Policy
Average
Cost,
Pre-
Policy
Average
Cost,
Post-
Policy
Total
Cost,
Pre-
Policy
Total
Cost,
Post-
Policy Abdominal
Strain 5 0 $710 $0 $3,550 $0
Back Strain 6 7 $3,400 $1,221 $20,400 $8,546
Burn 24 10 $2,272 $656 $54,533 $6,564
Cardiac 0 1 $0 $2,608 $0 $2,608
Contusion 7 7 $45 $941 $318 $6,592
Debris In
Eye 1 3 $217 $145 $217 $435
Dental 0 1 $0 $994 $0 $994
Electric
Shock 2 1 $0 $0 $0 $0
Extremity
Strain 19 27 $5,845 $3,273 $111,058 $88,377
Fracture 0 1 $0 $1,988 $0 $1,988
Heat
Exhaustion 2 6 $79 $26 $159 $159
Laceration 1 8 $797 $177 $797 $1,420
Multiple 6 3 $7,380 $5,740 $44,280 $17,219
Puncture 3 2 $0 $0 $0 $0
Smoke
Inhalation 1 2 $1,593 $1,231 $1,593 $2,462
Totals 76 79 $3,071 $1,739 $236,905 $137,367
37
The average cost per injury decreased in nine categories. There was no change in average
cost per injury in two categories, and there was an increase in average cost per injury in four
categories. The four categories that showed increases were cardiac conditions, contusions, dental
injuries, and fractures. There was a total of one cardiac condition, one dental injury, and one
fracture in the post-policy period. There were no cardiac conditions, dental injuries, or fractures
in the pre-policy period. The rarity of and singular occurrences of cardiac conditions, dental
injuries, and fractures suggests that they are likely statistical outliers.
The only category of injury that has notably increased in post-policy cost is contusions.
There were fourteen total contusions in the survey period. Seven contusions occurred before the
policy and seven occurred after the policy. In the post-policy period, three contusions resulted in
no time lost due to injury. Of the $6,592 in contusion total costs, $5,709 (86%) of the total was
caused by two separate contusion injuries.
Burn Injuries
Given the nature of firefighting, firefighter burn injuries are worthy of specific attention.
Thirty-four burn injuries occurred in the survey period, and 24 burn injuries (71%) occurred in
the pre-policy period. In the pre-policy period, 24 burns resulted in 168 days lost on complete
work restriction. Pre-policy burns resulted in 171 days lost on light duty restriction.
Every burn in the pre-policy period caused some form of injury-related time off. Burn
costs in the pre-policy period were $54,533; $29,193 for complete work restriction and $25,340
for light duty restriction. The average burn in the pre-policy period resulted in 7 days on
complete work restriction at a cost of $1,216. The average burn in the pre-policy period resulted
38
in 7.125 days on light duty restriction at a cost of $1,056. In the pre-policy period, there were
two instances in which more than one firefighter was burned at the same incident.
In the post-policy period, burn injuries have sharply decreased. Just 10 burns occurred in
the post-policy period. The total cost of time lost to burn injuries was drastically reduced in the
post-policy period. In the post-policy period, 10 burns resulted in nine days lost on complete
work restriction. Post-policy burns resulted in 32 days lost due to light duty restriction. One of
these burn injuries resulted in 8 days on complete work restriction and 9 days on light duty
restriction. Three post-policy burn injuries resulted in zero time lost to complete or light duty
restriction.
Burn costs in the post-policy period totaled $6,564. Post-policy burns resulted in costs of
$1,434 for complete work restriction and $5,130 for light duty restriction. The average burn in
the post-policy period resulted 0.9 days of complete work restriction at a cost of $143. The
average post-policy burn resulted in 3.2 days of light duty restriction at a cost of $513. There
were no instances of multiple firefighters being burned at the same incident during the post-
policy period. The cost of complete work restriction, cost of light duty restriction, and total costs
for burn injuries is depicted in the following three charts.
39
Cost of Burn-Related Complete Work Restriction
95%
5%
Pre-Policy Post-Policy
Cost of Burn-Related Light Duty Restriction
83%
17%
Pre-Policy Post-Policy
40
Total Cost of Burn-Related Work Restriction
89%
11%
Pre-Policy Post-Policy
The cost of burn injuries decreased by a total of $47,969 in the post-policy period. A
firefighter suffering a burn in the post-policy period spent 6.1 fewer days on complete work
restriction and 3.925 fewer days on light duty restriction average. The cost of complete work
restriction decreased by $1,073 per burn injury, on average. The cost of light duty restriction
decreased by $542 per burn injury, on average. The most severe pre-policy burn resulted in a
cost of $12,109 for complete and light duty restrictions. The most severe post-policy burn
resulted in a cost of $2,709 for complete and light duty restrictions.
Burn injuries decreased as firefighters adjusted to using defensive and transitional
operations at vacant and abandoned buildings. Prior to the policy, all structures received
offensive attacks whether occupied, vacant, or abandoned. The only exceptions to this method
were fully involved vacant and abandoned buildings, or buildings with obviously hazardous
structural instability. Firefighters were repeatedly exposed to avoidable risks during offensive
attacks that resulted in more frequent and more serious burns in the pre-policy period.
41
Offensive attacks present the highest level of risk of injury for firefighters. The policy
directs firefighters to only use offensive attacks for minimal to moderate fire conditions, or if
there is a confirmed civilian life in jeopardy at a vacant or abandoned building. Offensive attacks
decreased at vacant and abandoned buildings from 648 (68%) pre-policy to 721 (45%) post-
policy. The frequency of burn injury dropped from 1 in 40 vacant and abandoned building fires
pre-policy to 1 in 161 vacant and abandoned building fires post-policy.
Projected Injuries
For this section, pre-policy injuries and costs have been projected into the post-policy
period. Based on the actual pre-policy rates and severity of injuries, this model estimates what
likely would have happened if the risk management policy had never been implemented. In this
model, an assumption was made that injury rates and costs remained constant and unchanged for
each injury category in the post-policy period.
For each injury category, a pre-policy injury rate was calculated. The pre-policy injury
rate was then projected into post-policy data. The result was an estimated rate of injury for each
category in the post-policy period. The actual average cost of pre-policy injuries was then
multiplied by the estimated rate of injury for each category. The total of actual average costs
multiplied by the estimated rate of post-policy injuries was used to extrapolate an estimated
projection of injuries and costs had the 2007 risk management policy never occurred.
The following table details projected post-policy injuries and costs by injury category
under this model. In each paired column, green indicates the lower cost or value. Yellow
indicates no change in cost or value, while red indicates the higher cost or value.
42
Injury
Type
Actual
Number,
Post-
Policy
Projected
Number,
Post-
Policy
Actual
Total
Cost,
Pre-
Policy
Projected
Total Cost,
Post-
Policy
Actual
Total
Cost,
Post-
Policy
Projected
Cost
Savings,
Post-
Policy Abdominal
Strain 0 8.4 $3,500 $5,976 $0 $5,976
Back Strain 7 10.1 $20,400 $34,342 $8,546 $25,796
Burn 10 40.4 $54,533 $91,795 $6,564 $85,231
Cardiac 1 1 $2,608 $2,608 $2,608 $0
Contusion 7 11.8 $319 $542 $6,592 $6,050
Debris In
Eye 3 1.7 $217 $365 $434 $69
Dental 1 1 $994 $994 $994 $0
Electric
Shock 1 3.4 $0 $0 $0 $0
Extremity
Strain 27 32 $111,058 $186,954 $88,377 $98,577
Fracture 1 1 $1,988 $1,988 $1,988 $0
Heat
Exhaustion 6 3.4 $159 $269 $159 $110
Laceration 8 1.7 $797 $1,342 $1,420 $78
Multiple 3 10.1 $44,280 $74,543 $17,219 $57,234
Puncture 2 5.1 $0 $0 $0 $0
Smoke
Inhalation 2 1.7 $1,593 $2,682 $2,463 $219
Totals 79 129.6 $236,905 $404,400 $137,367 $267,033
43
Findings - SPSS Analysis
Introduction
The Excel database used in this study was converted for use with SPSS. Excel fields were
re-classified as needed to convert alphabetical data into numerical data. Fields converted to
numerical data included property status, if property was vacant or abandoned, firefighting tactics,
the pre-policy and post-policy period, injury type, and the rank of injured firefighter.
The SPSS database first lists all categories chronologically over the 10-year study period.
The database then split all categories into pre-policy and post-policy sections. SPSS was then
used to find frequencies, descriptives, and test for statistical relationships within the data.
Vacant and Abandoned Building Fires
Structure fires were categorized as abandoned in SPSS using 1 to indicate the property
was vacant or abandoned and 0 to indicate the property was occupied. The mean of the pre-
policy vacant and abandoned category was .41 for 2329 fire incidents. The mean of the post-
policy vacant and abandoned category was .56 for 2904 fire incidents. Vacant and abandoned
building fires increased in the post-policy period.
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
PreVacant 2329 0 1 .41 .492
PostVacant 2904 0 1 .56 .497
Valid N (listwise) 2329
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare the frequency of abandoned building
fires in the pre-policy and post-policy period. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-
44
tailed) value of .000, indicating a statistically significant difference between the pre-policy
period and the post-policy period.
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-
tailed) Mean Std.
Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower Upper
Pair 1 PreVacant -
PostVacant -.138 .694 .014 -.166 -.110 -9.586 2328 .000
Firefighter Injuries
In the pre-policy period, there were 67 vacant or abandoned building fire incidents that
resulted in firefighter injury. A total of 76 firefighters were injured, and 62 incidents injured a
single firefighter. Two separate incidents injured two firefighters each. Two separate incidents
injured three firefighters each. One incident resulted in four firefighter injuries. The mean of pre-
policy injuries is .03.
In the post-policy period, there were 78 vacant or abandoned building fire incidents that
resulted in firefighter injury. A total of 79 firefighters were injured, and 77 incidents injured a
single firefighter. One incident injured two firefighters. There were no occasions of more than
two firefighters being injured at a single incident in the post-policy period. The mean of post-
policy injuries is the same value as pre-policy injuries, .03.
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy injuries.
The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .429, indicating no statistically
significant difference between the pre-policy and post-policy number of injuries.
45
Firefighting Tactics and Firefighter Injuries
A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy firefighting tactics and pre-policy types of
injury. The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change in
firefighting tactics and types of injury. A change in firefighting tactics should produce a
corresponding change in firefighter injuries. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of
.013, indicating that a statistical relationship exists between the variables. The Phi value was
ue
was .516, indicating a medium strength of relationship. The null hypothesis is rejected.
Chi-Square Tests
Value df Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 53.593a 33 .013
Likelihood Ratio 25.626 33 .816
Linear-by-Linear Association 2.893 1 .089
N of Valid Cases 67
a. 45 cells (93.8%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected
count is .01.
Symmetric Measures
Value Approx. Sig.
Nominal by Nominal Phi .894 .013
Cramer's V .516 .013
N of Valid Cases 67
a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.
b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.
A crosstab was conducted using post-policy firefighting tactics and post-policy types of
injury. The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change
and post-policy tactics and injury. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .977,
indicating no statistical relationship exists between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.
Crosstab analysis of tactics and types of injuries has shown a statistical relationship only
between pre-policy variables that were tested. Post-policy variables that were tested did not show
46
a statistical relationship. Based on the results of crosstab analysis, there is a very strong
probability that the change in injuries in response to a change in tactics is not coincidental. It is
reasonable to conclude that the policy change in firefighting tactics caused the resulting change
in injuries.
A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy tactics and pre-policy injury occurrences. The
hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and pre-policy
tactics and injury occurrences. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .000, indicating
that a statistical relation
was .231, indicating a low strength and direction of relationship. The null hypothesis is rejected.
Chi-Square Tests
Value df Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 124.204a 5 .000
Likelihood Ratio 132.923 5 .000
Linear-by-Linear Association 118.858 1 .000
N of Valid Cases 2320
a. 4 cells (33.3%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum
expected count is .84.
Symmetric Measures
Value Approx. Sig.
Nominal by Nominal Phi .231 .000
Cramer's V .231 .000
N of Valid Cases 2320
a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.
b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.
A crosstab was conducted using post-policy tactics and post-policy injury occurrences.
The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and post-
policy tactics and injuries. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .000, indicating that
47
a statistical relationship exists between the variables
indicating a very low strength and direction of relationship. The null hypothesis is rejected.
Chi-Square Tests
Value df Asymp. Sig. (2-
sided)
Pearson Chi-Square 83.283a 5 .000
Likelihood Ratio 95.479 5 .000
Linear-by-Linear Association 69.073 1 .000
N of Valid Cases 2903
a. 3 cells (25.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum
expected count is 2.26.
Symmetric Measures
Value Approx. Sig.
Nominal by Nominal Phi .169 .000
Cramer's V .169 .000
N of Valid Cases 2903
a. Not assuming the null hypothesis.
b. Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.
Pre-policy and post-policy tactics both showed a statistical relationship with occurrences
of injury. Pre-policy injury rates showed a slightly higher strength and direction of statistical
relationship.
Comparison of Complete Work Restriction Hours and Costs
As detailed in the Excel findings, a firefighter on complete work restriction is unable to
work due to injury. In the pre-policy period, firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned
buildings resulted in $121,170 in costs for complete work restriction hours. In the post-policy
period, firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings resulted in $17,053 in costs for
complete work restriction hours. Post-policy injuries resulted in $104,117 lower costs for
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complete work restriction hours. The mean of the cost of pre-policy complete work restriction
hours is $1,594. The mean of the cost of post-policy complete work restriction hours is $215.
There was a substantial decrease of $1,379 in the mean cost of complete work restriction hours
per post-policy injury.
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation
PreRestrictedCost 76 $0.00 $33,342.55 $121,170.16 $1,594.3442 $4,382.34220
PostRestrictedCost 79 $0.00 $3,823.87 $17,053.12 $215.8623 $613.26260
Valid N (listwise) 5
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy complete
work restriction costs. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .003,
indicating a statistically significant difference between complete work restriction costs in the pre-
policy and post-policy period. The results of the paired samples T-test indicate a strong
probability that the difference in pre-policy and post-policy complete work restriction costs is not
coincidental.
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-
tailed) Mean Std.
Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower Upper
Pair
1
Pre-Policy: Cost of
Complete
Restriction Days -
Post-Policy:
Number of Days of
Complete Work
Restriction
52.23690 836.11282 17.32528 18.26232 86.21148 3.015 2328 .003
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155 firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires resulted in 791 days of
complete work restriction time, and 653 restricted duty days resulted from injuries suffered in the
pre-policy period. There were 138 restricted duty days that resulted from injuries in the post-
policy period. The mean of pre-policy complete work restriction days is 9.12. The mean of post-
policy complete work restriction days is 1.75. A post-policy injury resulted in an average of 7.37
fewer days on complete work restriction.
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation
PreRestrictedDays 76 0 177 693 9.12 24.085
PostRestrictedDays 79 0 43 138 1.75 5.904
Valid N (listwise) 5
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy complete work restriction
days and post-policy complete work restriction days. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig.
(2-sided) value of .015, indicating a statistically significant difference between pre-policy and
post-policy complete work restriction days. The results of the paired samples T-test indicate a
very strong probability that the policy change caused the resulting decrease in complete work
restriction days.
50
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-
tailed) Mean Std.
Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower Upper
Pair
1
Pre-Policy: Number
of Days on
Complete Duty
Restriction - Post-
Policy: Number of
Days of Complete
Work Restriction
.239 4.756 .099 .046 .432 2.427 2328 .015
Comparison of Light Duty Restriction Hours and Costs
As detailed in Excel findings, a firefighter on a light duty assignment may work but may
not perform firefighting activities. In the pre-policy period, firefighter injuries at vacant and
abandoned buildings resulted in $121,482 in costs for light duty hours. In the post-policy period,
firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings resulted in $113,819 in costs for light duty
hours. The mean of the cost of pre-policy light duty hours was $51.22. The mean of the cost of
post-policy light-duty hours was $36.88. There was a reduction of $14.34 in the mean cost of
light duty hours per post-policy injury.
Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
PreLDCost 2329 $0.00 $28,714.18 $51.2202 $839.78244
PostLDCost 2904 $0.00 $28,519.71 $36.8885 $697.37751
Valid N (listwise) 2329
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A paired sample T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy light duty
costs. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .810, indicating no
statistically significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy light duty costs.
There were 155 firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned building fires that resulted in
1,435 days of light duty time, and 741 light duty days resulted from injuries suffered in the pre-
policy period. There were 694 light duty days that resulted from injuries in the post-policy
period. The mean of pre-policy restricted duty days is .32. The mean of post-policy restricted
duty days is .23. There was a slight reduction in light duty costs in the post-policy period.
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy light duty
days. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .844, indicating no
statistically significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy light duty days.
A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy light duty days and post-policy light duty
days. The hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and
light duty days. The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .353, indicating that no
statistical relationship exists between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.
Comparison of Total Costs
There were 155 firefighter injuries at vacant and abandoned buildings that resulted in
$374,272 in combined restricted and light duty costs. Pre-policy injuries resulted in $236,905 in
total costs. Post-policy injuries resulted in $137,367 in total costs. The mean of total pre-policy
total injury costs is $3,197. The mean of post-policy total injury costs is $1,709. There was a
substantial decrease of $1,488 in the mean total cost per injury in the post-policy period.
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Descriptive Statistics
N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation
Pre-Policy: Total Cost Of
Injury 76 $0.00 $33,907.68 $242,959.57 $3,196.8364 $6,402.22550
Post-Policy: Total Cost Of
Injury 79 $0.00 $28,679.04 $134,977.25 $1,708.5728 $4,259.24342
Valid N (listwise) 5
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy total costs.
The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .371, indicating no statistically
significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy total costs.
A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy total costs and post-policy total costs. The
hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and total costs.
The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .353, indicating that no statistical relationship
exists between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.
Burn Injuries
The cost and frequency of burn injuries decreased substantially in the post-policy period.
The frequencies of pre-policy and post-policy burn injuries and costs are depicted in the
following table:
Statistics
Pre-Policy: Total Cost Of Burn Injuries
Post-Policy: Total Cost of Burn Injuries
N Valid 24 10
Missing 5212 5226 Mean $2,272.2054 $656.4250 Median $1,513.6150 $557.6450 Mode $637.31 $0.00 Std. Deviation $2,652.69824 $797.16333 Sum $54,532.93 $6,564.25
53
The mean, median, mode, and sum of pre-policy burn injuries exceeds the post-policy
values in each of those categories.
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy total burn
costs. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .083, indicating no
statistical relationship between the variables.
A crosstab was conducted using pre-policy and post-policy total burn costs. The
hypothesis for this crosstab is that a relationship exists between the policy change and burn costs.
The crosstab resulted in an Asymp. Sig. value of .277, indicating no statistical relationship
between the variables. The null hypothesis is accepted.
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy complete
work restriction costs from burns. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of
.124, indicating no statistical relationship between the variables.
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy and post-policy light duty
costs from burns. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .551, indicating
no statistical relationship between the variables.
Firefighting Tactics
The firefighting tactics utilized at vacant and abandoned building fires changed notably in
the post-policy period. In the pre-policy period, offensive attacks were utilized at 649 (68%) of
955 working fires at vacant and abandoned building fires. The following histogram depicts pre-
policy firefighting tactics at vacant and abandoned building fires; 1 represents offensive attacks,
2 represents defensive operations, 3 represents transitional operations, 4 represents incipient
conditions, and 5 represents exterior fire conditions.
54
In the post-policy period, offensive attacks were utilized at 721 (45%) of 1,623 working
fires at vacant and abandoned buildings. The following histogram depicts post-policy firefighting
tactics at vacant and abandoned building fires; 1 represents offensive attacks, 2 represents
defensive operations, 3 represents transitional operations, 4 represents incipient conditions, and 5
represents exterior fire conditions.
55
A paired samples T-test was conducted to compare pre-policy tactics and post-policy
tactics. The paired samples T-test resulted in a Sig. (2-tailed) value of .000, indicating a
statistically significant difference between pre-policy and post-policy firefighting tactics. The
results of the paired samples T-test indicate a very strong probability that the policy change
caused the resulting change in firefighting tactics.
56
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-tailed) Mean Std.
Deviation Std. Error
Mean 95% Confidence
Interval