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Annual Visits to PWG Managed Parks in New South Wales -
New Branch Report 2016
June 2016
- Prepared for -
Office of Environment and Heritage PO Box 1967 Hurstville NSW 2220
- Prepared by -
Roy Morgan Research Ltd Level 2, 26 Wharf St, Brisbane, QLD, 4000
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
INDEX
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 1
2. ANNUAL BY PARK OPERATIONS BRANCH .......................................................... 4
3. WEATHER FACTORS INFLUENCING PWG PARK VISITS .............................. 17
3.1 Temperature Effects on PWG Park Visitation .................................................... 17
3.2 Rainfall Effects on PWG Park Visitation ............................................................ 28
4. OTHER SURVEY RESULTS ....................................................................................... 39
4.1 Purpose of Visit to a PWG Park .......................................................................... 39
4.2 Reason for Visit to a PWG Park .......................................................................... 40
4.3 Activities Undertaken at Most Recently Visited Park ......................................... 41
4.4 Satisfaction with Most Recent Visit to a PWG Park ........................................... 47
DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by Roy Morgan Research Ltd in good faith exercising all due care and attention, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the relevance, accuracy, completeness or fitness for purpose of this document in respect of any particular user’s circumstances. Users of this document should satisfy themselves concerning its application to, and where necessary seek expert advice in respect of, their situation. The views expressed within are not necessarily the views of the Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH) and may not represent OEH policy.
© Copyright State of NSW and the Office of Environment and Heritage
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 1
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2016 PWG Park Operations Branch definitions were re-defined by OEH. As a result survey data for 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 had to be modified to include the new definitions to calculate visitation by PWG Park Operations Branch. This report provides details of this change in Branch definition. In relation to absolute numbers of visits, Figure A shows that in 2016, visits to parks in each Branch were the highest so far recorded. Visits to parks in all eight Branches increased on previous years, with marked increases observed for the Greater Sydney (16.0m), North Coast (9.3m) and Hunter Central Coast Branches (7.6m). However, the greatest proportional increases in visitation were observed in the West (93%) and Northern Inland Branches (63%), as well as the North Coast Branch (70%). When comparing proportional contribution to annual PWG park visits in the eight PWG Branches, the contribution to overall visits from parks in the Greater Sydney Branch fell from 34% in 2014 to 31% in 2016. Contribution to visitation increased to their highest recorded levels for the North Coast (18%) and West Branches (3%) in 2016.
Figure A: PWG Annual Visitation by PWG Branch1
1. If respondents could not provide the name of the park they visited, or the name of the park could not be ascertained from the town claimed to be nearest to that park, they were then asked to classify the park as being PWG managed or not. If they classified the park as being PWG managed, the park could not be categorised to a PWG branch or PWG region because the actual location of the park could not be determined. Respondents that were imputed as visiting a PWG park also fell into this category.
924,
363
5,03
6,43
1
5,19
1,97
0
5,46
1,31
8
11,3
41,7
86
4,95
2,89
1
1,62
2,26
9
271,
072
2,43
6,86
7
813,
810
5,25
1,70
1
4,67
3,00
0
4,26
6,95
1
9,73
8,02
0
3,74
7,41
7
1,94
0,99
0
461,
841
2,48
4,93
2
1,15
9,40
6
5,64
7,38
6
3,46
6,88
7
3,92
8,92
6
11,7
00,3
20
3,47
9,51
8
1,82
8,31
7
297,
998
3,27
1,70
3
862,
316
5,45
0,01
0
5,71
9,57
9
5,50
3,33
9
13,1
84,4
42
4,13
6,82
3
1,69
7,55
3
693,
240
1,36
0,13
8
1,39
4,46
9
9,27
5,51
4
7,63
1,48
4
5,85
3,00
5
15,9
94,9
87
5,63
9,64
7
2,64
3,26
5
1,33
4,83
2
1,18
1,01
3
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
NorthernInland
North Coast HunterCentral Coast
BlueMountains
GreaterSydney
South Coast SouthernRanges
West PWG ParkNot ClassifiedTo A Branch
Vis
its
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
924,
363
2%
14%
813,
810
924,
363
2%
813,
810
813,
810
813,
810
813,
810
3%
862,
316
862,
316
2%
16%
862,
316
862,
316
862,
316
862,
316
3%
16%
14
%
%18
%
14%
14
%
10%
15
%
15%
15%
13
%
11%
14
%
11%
30%
29
%
34%
34
%
31%
13%
11
%
10%
11
%
11%
4%
6%
4%
4%% 5%
5%
7%
7%
9%
4%
2% 29
7,99
829
7,99
829
7,99
869
3,24
069
3,24
029
7,99
82%
69
3,24
069
3,24
069
3,24
069
3,24
069
3,24
03%
1%46
1,84
11%
46
1,84
146
1,84
11%
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 2
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Respondents who had visited a PWG park were asked to give an overall satisfaction rating based the experience of their most recent visit. A mean satisfaction score was calculated for satisfaction with one’s visit to a PWG park. The closer the mean score to 2 points, the higher the level of satisfaction. Figures B and C show that in 2016 three Branches had an overall satisfaction percentage of 96% - North Coast, Blue Mountains and West. However, the highest mean satisfaction score in 2016 was achieved for the Blue Mountains Branch (1.62). The lowest proportion satisfied overall in 2016 was observed for the Southern Ranges Branch (92%), with the Hunter Central Coast Branch attaining the lowest mean satisfaction score in 2016 (1.49). Overall satisfaction with one’s most recent visit to a PWG park has been steadily increasing over time for parks in the North Coast Branch, from 89% in 2008 to 96% in 2016. The highest mean scores for satisfaction were achieved in 2016 for the Blue Mountains Branch (1.62), the Northern Inland Branch (1.59) and the South Coast Branch (1.57).
Figure B: Satisfaction with most recently visited PWG park by Branch (Part A)
96
93
96
94
93
90
95
89
91
93
93
86
95
94
92
90
90
88
89
89
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Blue Mountains
Hunter CentralCoast
North Coast
Northern Inland
% recent visit of a PWG park
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mean – 1.51 Mean – 1.56
Mean – 1.48 Mean – 1.43
Mean – 1.54
Mean – 1.41 Mean – 1.46
Mean – 1.38 Mean – 1.53
Mean – 1.49
Mean – 1.44 Mean – 1.54 Mean – 1.47 Mean – 1.46 Mean – 1.62
Mean – 1.34
Mean – 1.39 Mean – 1.37
Mean – 1.59
Mean – 1.50
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 3
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure C: Satisfaction with most recently visited PWG park by Branch (Part B)
96
92
94
95
89
94
94
96
89
86
92
95
100
88
93
94
83
92
91
93
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
West
Southern Ranges
South Coast
Greater Sydney
% recent visit of a PWG park
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mean – 1.47 Mean – 1.52
Mean – 1.48 Mean – 1.49
Mean – 1.57
Mean – 1.59 Mean – 1.22
Mean – 1.61 Mean – 1.40
Mean – 1.53
Mean – 1.35 Mean – 1.67 Mean – 1.32 Mean – 1.25 Mean – 1.53
Mean – 1.47
Mean – 1.55 Mean – 1.58
Mean – 1.50
Mean – 1.51
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 4
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
2. ANNUAL BY PARK OPERATIONS BRANCH In 2016 PWG Park Operations Branch definitions were re-defined by OEH. As a result survey data for 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 had to be modified to include the new definitions to calculate visitation by PWG Park Operations Branch. PWG Branch was allocated to each respondent visiting a PWG park based on (a) the name of the park; and (b) the name of the nearest town as specified by each respondent’s survey responses. Where a respondent could not provide the name of the park, nor its nearest town, the park could not be classified to a PWG Branch or Region. This occurred for 2% of visits in 2016 (4% of visits in 2014, 9% of visits in 2012 and 7% of visits in both 2008 and 2010) (Figure 6.3.1). Please note that wave-by-wave analysis of visitation by Branch, whilst presented in this report, is subject to large sampling errors. As a consequence, seasonal fluctuations in visitation should be treated as indicative and any conclusions made treated with caution. In relation to absolute number of visits, the highest number of visits recorded was achieved in 2016 across all eight Branches. Visits to Parks in the Greater Sydney Branch increased from 13.1m in 2014 to almost 16.0m in 2016 (See Figure 2.1). This can be primarily attributed to the highest ever number of visits being recorded at Royal (4.6m), Ku-ring-gai Chase (3.3m), Lane Cove (2.4m) and Sydney Harbour (2.3m) National Parks and Parramatta River Regional Park (0.7m). PWG visits to parks in the North Coast Branch have increased by over 3.8m from 5.5m visits in 2014 to 9.3m visits in 2016 (i.e. 70% increase). High numbers of visits were observed in 2016 for Crowdy Bay (1.3m), Bundjulung (0.8m) and Yuraygir (0.6m) National Parks. However, visitation to virtually all parks in the North Coast Branch increased on 2014 levels. Visits to Hunter Central Coast Branch parks increased by 1.9m in 2016 from 5.7m in 2014 to7.6m. This was mainly due to the substantial increase in visits to Brisbane Water (from 0.3m in 2014 to 1.4m in 2016) and Glenrock (from 0.2m in 2014 to 1.1m in 2016) National Parks. Please note that sample sizes are small for these two, so visitation estimates are subject to significant error. The Blue Mountains Branch recorded its highest number of visits in 2016 (5.9m), up by 0.4m on 2014 levels (5.5m). Visits to Blue Mountains National Park comprised almost 90% of all visits to the Branch in 2016 (88.8%), recording 5.2m visits. This Branch recorded the smallest percentage increase in visits over 2014 levels (6%). An increase of 1.5m visits from 2014 was observed for parks in the South Coast Branch (from 4.1m in 2014 to 5.6m in 2016). The increase in visitation was observed across almost
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 5
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
all parks in the Branch including Conjola (0.8m), Eurobodalla (0.7m), Seven Mile Beach (0.5m), Ben Boyd (0.5m) and Morton (0.4) National Parks. A slight decline in visitation was observed for Jervis Bay National Park, but visits still remained above 0.5m for the 2016 year. Visits to parks in the Southern Ranges Branch increased by over 0.9m in 2016 from 2014 levels (2.6m vs 1.7m). More than 8 in 10 of all visits to this Branch come from visits to Kosciuszko National Park, with attained 2.2m visits in 2016. A rise in visits of 0.5m was observed for parks in the Northern Inland Branch, with visitation rising from 0.9m in 2014 to1.4m in 2016. Visits are spread over a large number of parks for this Branch, with Cathedral Rock National Park recording the highest number of visits in 2016 at 175,403. Oxley Wild Rivers (126,737) and Warrumbungle National Parks (124,634) were second and third respectively in terms of visitation.
Figure 2.1: PWG Annual Visitation by PWG Branch
The West Branch recorded its highest ever number of visits in 2016 at over 1.3m (up from just under 700,000 in 2014). This was primarily due to a record number of visits to Murray Valley National Park (710,791) and two new parks in which visits were recorded in 2016: Murrumbidgee Valley National Park (149,921) and Lachlan Valley National Park (141,995). When comparing proportional contribution to annual PWG park visits located in the eight PWG Branches (Figure 2.2), the contribution to overall visits from parks in the Greater
924,
363
5,03
6,43
1
5,19
1,97
0
5,46
1,31
8
11,3
41,7
86
4,95
2,89
1
1,62
2,26
9
271,
072
2,43
6,86
7
813,
810
5,25
1,70
1
4,67
3,00
0
4,26
6,95
1
9,73
8,02
0
3,74
7,41
7
1,94
0,99
0
461,
841
2,48
4,93
2
1,15
9,40
6
5,64
7,38
6
3,46
6,88
7
3,92
8,92
6
11,7
00,3
20
3,47
9,51
8
1,82
8,31
7
297,
998
3,27
1,70
3
862,
316
5,45
0,01
0
5,71
9,57
9
5,50
3,33
9
13,1
84,4
42
4,13
6,82
3
1,69
7,55
3
693,
240
1,36
0,13
8
1,39
4,46
9
9,27
5,51
4
7,63
1,48
4
5,85
3,00
5
15,9
94,9
87
5,63
9,64
7
2,64
3,26
5
1,33
4,83
2
1,18
1,01
3
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
NorthernInland
North Coast HunterCentral Coast
BlueMountains
GreaterSydney
South Coast SouthernRanges
West PWG ParkNot ClassifiedTo A Branch
Vis
its
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 6
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Sydney Branch fell from 34% in 2012 and 2014 to 31% in 2016, a similar proportion to those attained in 2010 and 2008 (29% and 30%respectively). A decline in proportional contribution to park visits was also observed for the Blue Mountains Branch, down from 14% in 2014 to 11% in 2016 (the same proportion as in 2012). The proportional contribution to annual PWG park visits increased from 2014 levels for all other Branches in 2016, most notably for the North Coast Branch, which increased from 14% in 2014 to 18% in 2016, the highest proportion attained for this Branch.
Figure 2.2: Proportional PWG Annual Visitation by PWG Branch
The proportion of visits not classified to a Branch has decreased from 7% in 2008 and 2010 and 9% in 2012 to 4% in 2014 and 2% in 2016. The number of respondents allocated to this category has been steadily declining over time (173 - 2008; 159 – 2010; 119 – 2012; 112 – 2014; 57 - 2016). This indicates that the process of allocation of visits to specific parks or towns within Branches is improving in efficiency over time. The following commentary provides comparison of visitation to PWG Branches in 2008 to 2016 by wave. Please refer to Figures 2.3-1 to 2.3-8 for more detail. Please note that hereafter, graphs showing PWG park visitation by Branch have small sample sizes, and consequently large margins of error. For these graphs margins of error
2%
14%
14% 15
%
30%
13%
4%
1%
7%
2%
16%
14%
13%
29%
11%
6%
1%
7%
3%
16%
10% 11
%
34%
10%
5%
1%
9%
2%
14% 15
%
14%
34%
11%
4%
2%
4%
3%
18%
15%
11%
31%
11%
5%
3% 2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
NorthernInland
North Coast Hunter CentralCoast
BlueMountains
GreaterSydney
South Coast SouthernRanges
West PWG Park NotClassified To A
Branch
% V
isits
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 7
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
are not displayed. As a consequence, seasonal fluctuations in visitation should be treated as indicative and any conclusions made treated with caution. Where relevant, commentary has been made to alert readers to potentially large errors and cautions with interpreting data. Greater Sydney Branch – Visitation to PWG parks in the Greater Sydney Branch was higher in 2016 than in previous years in wave 6 (May), wave 8 (July) and from wave 10 to wave 13 (mid-August to mid-December). However, visitation was lower in wave 3 (February) and wave 7 (June). From 2008 to 2016 there has been a general trend in wave 6 (May) for visitation to increase with each year. Visitation generally declines from December to mid-July-mid-August, with a slight increase in visitation occurring in waves 5 and 6 (April-May) with Ester, Anzac Day and the Autumn school holidays. Visitation tends to increase from mid-August through to November. Wave 12 in 2016 (October-November) attained the highest levels of visitation recorded at more than 2.2m visits. This result is almost double the visitation amount recorded in wave 11 in any other year. North Coast Branch – Their does appear to be a cyclical trend in the visitation pattern to North Coast Branch parks over time, high in mid-summer (January), mid-Autumn (April), mid-Winter (July-August) and mid-spring (mid-September to mid-October) and lower at other times. Visitation in 2016 was higher than in previous years in waves 1 and 2 (summer), waves 6 and 7 (May-June), wave 10 (mid-August-mid-September) and in waves 12 and 13 (mid-October-mid-December). Since 2010, the number of visits tends to be steadily decreasing each year in wave 9 (mid-winter). Hunter Central Coast Branch – Similar to the North Coast Branch, Hunter Central Coast visits tend to be cyclical, being high in mid-summer (January) and mid-Autumn (April), while the peak in winter is earlier (June) and the peak in Spring later (mid-October-mid-November). Visitation was lower than in all previous years in wave 5 (April), which is surprising given that this is Easter, Anzac Day and autumn school holidays. However, visitation was the highest recorded in waves 8, 9 and 10 (mid-June-mid-September), recording visitation levels greater than 1.5 times, less than 3.5 times and greater than 2.5 times respectively than the previous highest visitation levels for these waves. Note that these levels of visitation could be influenced by one or two respondents visiting multiple times, lifting the visitation levels for these waves. Visitation levels were also the highest recorded for wave 1 (December), wave 3 (February), wave 6 (May) and wave 11 (mid-September-mid-October). Blue Mountains Branch – Visitation to parks in the Blue Mountains Branch tend to be relatively stable across the course of the year. Unusually high peaks in visitation occurred in wave 1 in 2010 (December), wave 10 in 2008 (mid-July-mid-August) and wave 8 in 2016 (late-June-late-July). Visitation levels were the highest recorded in 2016 for waves 2
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 8
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
(January), wave 5 (April) and, as previously mentioned, in wave 8 (late-June-late-July). The lowest levels of visitation were recorded in wave 9 (mid-July-mid-August) and wave 11 (mid-September-mid-October), though these visitation levels were not much lower than levels in other years. South Coast Branch – As a general trend, visitation to parks in the South Coast Branch tend to peak in wave 2 (January) and decline to low levels of visitation in wave 12 (mid-October-mid-November) and then increase to the peak in January. This is not surprising as people tend to head to the South Coast in summer and escape the heat. Peaks in visitation were observed in 2016 for wave 1 (December), wave 6 (May) and wave 13 (early-November-early-December). The lowest level of visitation recorded for wave 8 (late-June-late July) Southern Ranges Branch – Visitation to parks in the Southern Ranges Branch tends to peak in wave 9 (mid-July-mid-August) coinciding with the snow season. There also appears to be a smaller peak in wave 3 (February), but this peak is influenced heavily by large visitation numbers in the wave in 2010 and 2012, which visitation in other years has been very low for this wave. The highest levels of visitation were recorded in 2016 for waves 8 and 9 (winter) and in waves 12 and 13 (later spring-early summer), with the lowest level of visitation recorded in wave 5 (April). Note that, on average, only 12 respondents claim to visit parks in this Branch each wave, so visitation estimates per wave are subject to high levels of error and should be treated with caution. Northern Inland Branch – On average, only 6 respondents claim to visit parks in the Northern Inland Branch wave, so visitation estimates per wave are subject to large error and should be treated with caution. That stated, visitation tends to peak in the Northern Inland Branch in wave 1 (December) and waves 5 and 6 (April-May) and again in wave 11 (mid-September-mid October) in line with school holidays. High visitation were observed in 2016 for waves 4 and 5 (March-April), wave 10 (mid-August-mid-September) and wave 13 (early-November-early December). Western Branch – On average, only 2 to 3 respondents claim to visit parks in the West Branch each wave, so visitation estimates per wave are subject to significantly large error and should be treated with extreme caution. Excluding the exceptionally high visitation estimates in wave 1 and wave 2 of 2016, visitation per wave for parks in the West Branch remains at consistently low levels ate around 35,000 to 40,000 visits per wave. The September-October school holidays (wave 11), does tends to regularly exhibit slightly high average visitation at around 80,00 visits, but aside from this, visitation all other waves remains relatively constant. The high levels of visitation in wave 1 and 2 of 2016(December-January) are the result of a high number of visits from two or three respondents and cannot be considered to accurately reflect visitation to this Branch over this period.
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 9
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-1: Greater Sydney Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
770
796
1255
1082
747
725 76
6
909
562
1058
727
1249
695
1147
1072
888
462 57
0
739
1043
905
559
314
979
609
452
1800
1012
1500
680
896
876
650
575
1006
615 70
2
654 73
3
1317 13
72
973
1304
1439
1376
721
559
452
828
631
1003
1211
1617
1215
836 95
4 1089
1470
630
1003
800
1099
1405
2256
1621
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD -
Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 10
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-2: North Coast Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
433 49
1
227
383
530
211
370
314
308
587
554
337
292
482
379
265 37
5
722
306
204
581
703
165
648
271
15126
7
650
217
549
408
427
252
510 58
2
189
793
569
234
772
515
538
282 39
5
281
456
306
453
319
540
224
370
932
1843
435 464 54
6 636
495 528
379
600
775
642
1001
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD -
Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 11
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-3: Hunter Central Coast Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
448
624
249
370
436
279
469
373
270
180 22
7
608
659
614
542
221
556
358
135
352
490
165
151
431
179
479
267
483
90
316
397
143
192
184
134
327
166
230
538
509
966
320
225
550
356
624
337
187
177
308
864
296
762
439
330
419
340
565
509
806
916
855
485
838
369
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD
- Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School
holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 12
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-4: Blue Mountains Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
338 42
6
573 65
6
190 98
180
196
686
1019
308
461
330
274
267 13
3
246
455 57
1
360 391
285
593
331
41
322
160
335
338
78 292
612
290
232 27
1
489
349
180 30
2
1143
189 29
1
270 301
729
160
515
319
185
316 35
3
730
269
525 57
7
336
502
295 34
0
1227
228
382
289 32
8
555
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD -
Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 13
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-5: South Coast Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
580
296
248
473
743
194
302
412
148
215
169
634
541
186
608
304
629
106
180
117
232
290
387
269
124
315
621
796
257
127
192 22
9
452
155
130
67
160
80
21524
2
507
455
223
299 33
4
299
403
105
235
522
303
208
733
643
308
269
690
514
405
110
276
337
217
279
859
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD -
Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 14
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-6: Southern Ranges Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
95
64
34 123
96
139
56
231 25
2
122
335
46
29
54
114
423
15
250
160
381
104
105
193
70 55 18
113
83
534
37
276
14 55
135
189
104 13
6
70 8378
213
39 32 85 78 18
250
331
337
139
49 48
115 15
4
39
135
63
101
101
567
662
227
135 17
8
168
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD -
Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 15
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-7: Northern Inland Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
49 57
84
18
76
182
45
147
12
26
125
58
44
60
72
8
61
43
63
160
18
113
57 65
47 47
136
56
147
31 76
142
15 43
57 48
129
164
116
202
50 44
63
148
92
5
68 31 73 35 40
11
80
65 60
179 20
6
132
117
43
65
190
67 36
152
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD -
Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 16
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 2.3-8: West Branch Visitation by Survey Wave – 2008-2016
15 19 12 48 52 22
48 11 4
40
11 3
57
7 11 16 20 14 15
110
8
190
59 25
38
46
33 23
5 13
35
15 7
32
15
123
129
36 70 26
9 6
23
128
61 35
256
554
41
66
120
15
38 77 79
54
34
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
7 Dec-10 Jan
4 Jan-8 Feb
1 Feb-7 Mar
29 Feb-4 Apr
28 Mar-3 May
25 Apr-29 May
23 May-27 Jun
20 Jun-26 Jul
18 Jul-22 Aug
15 Aug-19 Sep
12 Sep-18 Oct
10 Oct-14 Nov
7 Nov-12 Dec
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Wave 12 Wave 13
No. o
f Vis
its (
'000
s)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
W1 - School holidays; Christmas; New Year
W2 - School holidays
Australia Day W4 - ACT – Canberra Day
VIC – Labour Day Easter 2008, 2016
School Holidays 2016 – VIC, QLD
W5 - Easter 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2016
School Holidays Anzac Day
Labour Day QLD 2016
W6 - QLD - Labour Day 2008, 2010 & 2012 School hols ACT
W7 - School holidays –VIC & QLD 2008 & 2010
(& QLD 2016) Queen’s Birthday
(QLD 2018, 2010 & 2016)
W8 - School holidays W9 - QLD -
Show Day
W11- School holidays; NSW & ACT – Labour Day; ACT - Family & Community Day 2012
W12 -VIC - Melbourne Cup ACT - Family & Community Day 2014
QLD - Queen’s Birthday 2012, 2014 & 2016
W10 - School holidays VIC 2016
W13 - School holidays QLD 2016
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 17
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
3. WEATHER FACTORS INFLUENCING PWG PARK VISITS Investigations in 2010 tended to indicate that PWG park visitation was impacted by weather, particularly significant weather events. Further investigation has been made in this area. This section looks at two weather factors and their impact on park visitation – temperature and , rainfall. All weather data provided in this section comes from the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) Climate Data Online service.
3.1 Temperature Effects on PWG Park Visitation
Figure 3.1-1 compares monthly PWG park visitation to monthly maximum daytime temperatures displayed as a divergence from the average1. From 2008 to 2012 there appears to be a general trend between PWG park visitation and temperature – the higher the temperature above the average, the greater the number of park visits. The 2014 result differs from other years in that, as temperature increases above the average, park visitation decreases. However, results in 2016 reverted to the original 2008 to 2012 trend. In addition, peaks in visitation tend to correspond with peaks in temperature. Figures 3.1-2 to 3.1-9 compares the temperature with PWG park visitation at the PWG Branch level. There does not appear to be any specific trend in relation to visitation and temperature for the Greater Sydney Branch. In 2008 and 2010 visitation tended to increase as temperature increased above the average (and vice versa). However, from, 2012 to 2016, the opposite trend occurred. In survey years 2008, 2014 and 2016 visits to parks in the North Coast Branch tended to decrease as temperature increases above the average. However, in 2010 and 2012 the opposite trend was evident. Visitation tended to increase as temperature increased above the average for parks in the Hunter Central Coast Branch in 2008 and 2010, but the opposite trend was evident from 2012 to 2016. For visits to the Blue Mountains Branch visitation tended to increase when temperatures increased above the average in 2018 and 2016, whilst the opposite trend emerged from 2010 to 2014.
11 Divergence from the average is calculated using 50 weather stations across the state, representing each Divergence from the average is calculated using Divergence from the average is calculated using weather stations across the state, representing each PWG Region. Average is based on the BoM average for each weather station.
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 18
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Visitation trends were again mixed for the South Coast Branch, with visitation declining as temperature increased above the average in 2008, 2012 and 2014, but trended in the opposite direction in 2010 and 2016. For visits to the Southern Ranges Branch visitation increased as temperature increased above the average in 2008, 2010 and 2014, but visitation decreased as temperature increased above the average in 2012 and 2016. Analysis of visitation to parks in the Northern Inland Branch should be treated with caution due to small sample sizes. However, visits tended to increase when temperature was above the average in 2008, 2012 and 2016, but declined with temperature in 2010 and 2014. Visitation to parks in the West Branch should be analysed with extreme caution due to extremely low sample sizes. However, from 2008 to 2014 visitation tended to decrease as temperature increased above the average, but tended to increase with temperature in 2016. It therefore appears that the temperature-visitation correlation of high visits at times when the temperature is above average is weak and subject to variation at the regional level across each year.
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 19
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-1: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce fr
om a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
PWG Park Visits State Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 20
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-2: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – Greater Sydney Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce fr
om a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Greater Sydney Branch PWG Park Visits Greater Sydney Branch Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 21
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-3: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – North Coast Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce fr
om a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
North Coast Branch PWG Park Visits North Coast Branch Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 22
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-4: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – Hunter Central Coast Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce fr
om a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Hunter Central Coast Branch PWG Park Visits Hunter Central Coast Branch Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 23
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-5: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – Blue Mountains Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce fr
om a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Blue Mountains Branch PWG Park Visits Blue Mountains Branch Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 24
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-6: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – South Coast Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce fr
om a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
South Coast Branch PWG Park Visits South Coast Branch Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 25
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-7: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – Southern Ranges Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
diver
genc
e fro
m a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Southern Ranges Branch PWG Park Visits Southern Ranges Branch Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 26
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-8: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – Northern Inland Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imun
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Northern Inlands Branch PWG Park Visits Northern Inlands Branch Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 27
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.1-9: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Temperatures1 – West Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings.
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max
imum
Tem
pera
ture
(%
dive
rgen
ce fr
om a
vera
ge)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
West Branch PWG Park Visits West Branch Average Maximum Temperature
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 28
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
3.2 Rainfall Effects on PWG Park Visitation
Figure 3.2-1 compares monthly PWG park visitation to monthly rainfall displayed as a divergence from the average1. From 2008 to 2014 there appears to be a general opposing trend between visitation and rainfall – the more rainfall is above the average, the fewer visits. This trend is particularly evident in 2008 and 2010, but the trend is not as strong in 2012 and 2014. In 2016 there is a weak opposite trend – the more rainfall is above the average, the more visits there are. However, for the most part, 2016 was dry, with high rainfall in 3 months (January, June and September). These rainfall events may have skewed averages, influencing the general rainfall- visitation relationship. Across each year, peaks in visitation generally tended to correspond with troughs in rainfall. Rainfall is more likely to impact on visitation if it is raining at both the origin of the visitor, as well as at the visitor’s intended destination and is therefore more likely to impact on visitation at the regional level. This is likely to be the case in 2016. Figures 3.2-2 to 3.2-8 compare rainfall with PWG park visitation at the PWG Branch level. In 2008 and 2010 and again in 2014 and 2016, visitation to parks in the Greater Sydney Branch tended to fall as rainfall increased above the average. However, in 2012, visitation decreased as rainfall decreased below the average. Visitation to parks in the North Coast Branch tends to decrease as rainfall increases above the average in 2008, 2010 and 2014. However, the opposite trend emerged in 2012 and 2016. Visitation to parks in the Hunter Central Coast follow a general trend across all years whereby visitation increases when rainfall decreases below the average. This Branch is the only one where this trend is consistent over time. From 2008 to 2010 visitation to parks in the Blue Mountains Branch tended to increase when rainfall decreased below the average. However, from 2012 to 2016 the opposite trend emerged. For the South Coast Branch no clear visitation trend emerged, with visitation increasing as rain increases above the average in 2008, 2012 and 2016, but behaving in the opposite manner in the intervening years of 2010 and 2014. The same cyclical pattern was also observed for parks in the Southern Ranges Branch. 11 Divergence from the average is calculated using 50 weather stations across the state, representing each Divergence from the average is calculated using 50 weather stations across the state, representing each Divergence from the average is calculated using 50 weather stations across the state, representing each PWG Region. Average is based on the BoM average for each weather station.
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 29
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Visitation to parks in the Northern Inland Branch should be analysed with caution due to small sample sizes. In 2008, 2010 and 2014 visitation tended to increase as rainfall increased above the average, but tended to decrease with rainfall in 2012 and 2016. Analysis of visitation to parks in the West Branch should be treated with extreme caution due to extremely small sample sizes. However, from 2008 to 2014 visits tended to increase when rainfall was above the average, while in 2016 the opposite trend was evident. In terms of climate variation, it would appear that there is a general trend from 2008 to 2014 that as rainfall increases above the average PWG park visitation decreases. This trend tends to be stronger than the temperature trend Of course, it should be noted these trends are based on an average for the state of NSW as a whole or based on selected weather stations in each Branch. Local weather conditions at both the visitor’s region of origin and their intended destination is likely to drive visitation at the regional level.
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 30
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-1: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
PWG Park Visits State Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 31
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-2: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – Greater Sydney Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-100%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Greater Sydney Branch PWG Park Visits Greater Sydney Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 32
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-3: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – North Coast Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-100%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
North Coast Branch PWG Park Visits North Coast Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 33
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-4: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – Hunter Central Coast Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-100%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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all (%
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rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Hunter Central Coast Branch PWG Park Visits Hunter Central Coast Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 34
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-5: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – Blue Mountains Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-150%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Blue Mountains Branch PWG Park Visits Blue Mountains Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 35
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-6: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – South Coast Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-100%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
South Coast Branch PWG Park Visits South Coast Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 36
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-7: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – Southern Ranges Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-75%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Southern Ranges Branch PWG Park Visits Southern Ranges Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 37
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-8: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – Northern Inland Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-550%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
Northern Inlands Branch PWG Park Visits Northern Inlands Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 38
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 3.2-9: Monthly PWG Park Visitation versus Monthly Rainfall1 – West Branch
1. Linear trend lines have been fitted to assist with description of findings. Formal trend analysis will be undertaken at the end of the 2016 survey.
-300%
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainf
all (%
dive
rgen
ce f
rom
ave
rage
)
Visit
s ('00
0s)
West Branch PWG Park Visits West Branch Average Rainfall
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 39
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
4. OTHER SURVEY RESULTS Please note that statistically significant results highlighted in blue (higher) or orange (lower) compared with other years.
4.1 Purpose of Visit to a PWG Park
As of wave 7 in 2016 (i.e. from the travel period 23 May to 12 December) adult PWG park visitors were asked a new question for each different PWG park they visited in relation to their purpose of visit:
Was visiting this park part of a regular, daily, weekly or monthly routine; part of a day trip; part of an overnight visit or multi-day trip; or for some other reason?
Note that whilst the question was asked as a single response question, respondents could visit more than one PWG park in the 4 week survey period, so their purpose of visit could differ from park to park. Overall, the question must be regarded as a multiple response question (i.e. the sum of all responses totals over 100%). In terms of visitation to parks in each PWG Branch, not surprisingly, incidence of taking day trips is the highest for parks in the Greater Sydney Branch (64.8%), where parks are close to, or within the metropolitan area of Sydney and other major tourism destinations (see Figure 4.1). Incidence of visiting parks as part of an overnight visit was highest for the Southern Ranges Branch (48.6%), followed by the South Coast and North Coast Branches (35.1% and 32.3% respectively). Visiting a park as part of a regular routine was highest for the Hunter Central Coast Branch (43.3%). It should be noted however, that this question was only asked for waves 7 to 13 of the 2016 survey, which covers the period from late-May through to early December. Therefore, reason for visitation may differ from those observed in this survey for parks visited from mid-December through to mid-May, particularly since this period includes the summer school holidays, the autumn school holidays, plus Easter and the Anzac Day long weekend.
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 40
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 4.1: Purpose of Visit to PWG Park 2016 by PWG Branch (Waves 7-13)
4.2 Reason for Visit to a PWG Park
Again, as of wave 7 in 2016 (i.e. from the travel period 23 May to 12 December) adult PWG park visitors were asked a new question for each different PWG park they visited in relation to their reason for visit:
Was visiting this park the only reason for your trip (100% of the trip purpose or intention); the main reason for your trip (75% of the trip purpose or intention); one of the main reasons for your trip (50% of the trip purpose or intention); a minor reason for your trip (25% of the trip purpose or intention); or not one of the reasons for your trip (0% of the trip purpose or intention)?
Note that whilst the question was asked as a single response question, respondents could visit more than one PWG park in the 4 week survey period, so their reason for their visit to each park could differ from park to park. Overall, the question must be regarded as a multiple response question (i.e. the sum of all responses totals over 100%). In addition, the mean reason for one’s visit could be calculated based on percentages allocated to each response option (i.e. 100% for only reason through to 0% for not one of the reasons). Greater Sydney Branch had the highest proportions indicating that their visit to the PWG park was the only reason for their visit (38.7%), as well as the main reason for their visit (36.9%). This resulted in the Greater Sydney Branch receiving the second highest mean
59.1
%
49.4
%
49.8
%
58.0
%
64.8
%
51.8
%
44.1
%
62.6
%
23.0
% 27.0
%
43.3
%
30.5
%
31.6
%
21.0
%
16.0
%
13.3
%
21.7
%
32.3
%
13.6
%
24.8
%
9.3%
35.1
%
48.6
%
24.9
%
2.9%
1.2% 3.
6%
2.1% 4.
6%
4.9%
0.4%
4.3%
0.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Northern Inland North Coast Hunter CentralCoast
Blue Mountains Greater Sydney South Coast Southern Ranges West
Part of a day trip Part of a regular, daily, weekly or monthly routine Part of an overnight visit or multi-day trip Some other reason for visit Can't say
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 41
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
score for trip reason (70.2%), slightly lower than that attained for the Southern Ranges Branch (71.6% - attaining a higher mean score primarily due to smaller proportions claiming that the park was not one of their reasons for the trip). (See Figure 4.2) Almost half of those visiting a PWG park in the West Branch claimed that visiting the park was not one of the reasons for their trip (46.6%). Consequently the mean score for this Branch was a low 45.7%. Note that these results should tempered by the fact that these questions were only asked for the latter half of the survey year and results may differ for visits made in the earlier part of the year. Figure 4.2: Reason for Visit to PWG Park 2016 by PWG Branch (Waves 7-13)
4.3 Activities Undertaken at Most Recently Visited Park
Respondents who had visited a PWG park were asked what activities they undertook on their most recent visit. Almost all of those who visited a PWG park did some sort of ‘activity’, with 99% nominating a specific activity in each of the years from 2008 to 2016. Analysis of walking activities undertaken at one’s most recently visited PWG Park by Branch (Figures 4.3.1a and b) shows that the highest incidence of walking was recorded in 2016 for seven of the eight Branches (the exception being the West Branch). In most instances the 2016 results were significantly higher than in previous years. A cyclical pattern
34.4
%
29.0
%
35.5
% 37.2
%
38.7
%
15.9
%
38.2
%
20.3
%
31.1
%
26.6
%
36.3
%
29.3
%
36.9
%
27.9
%
34.5
%
22.1
%23.9
%
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%
14.0
%
23.6
%
15.9
%
23.1
%
16.5
%
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%17.4
%
25.8
%
13.6
% 16.9
%
13.6
%
29.2
%
11.6
%
46.6
%
12.6
%
10.9
%
8.5%
7.8%
5.6%
15.3
%
4.2%
18.6
%
1.1%
3.1% 3.4%
1.8% 2.5%
0%
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15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Northern Inland North Coast Hunter CentralCoast
Blue Mountains Greater Sydney South Coast Southern Ranges West
The only reason for your trip (100% of the trip intention) The main reason for your trip (75% of the trip intention)
One of the main reasons for your trip (50% of the trip intention) A minor reason for your trip (25% of the trip intention)
Not one of the reasons for your trip (0% of the trip intention) Can't say
Mean 58.4%
Mean 62.0% Mean 67.8% Mean 71.6% Mean 70.2%
Mean 50.0% Mean 65.5% Mean 45.7%
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 42
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
emerges for walking in parks in the North Coast, Greater Sydney and South Coast Branches, with highs in 2008, 2012 and 2016 and lows in 2010 and 2014. Figures 4.3.2a and b show that incidence of water-based recreation activities are generally higher in the Hunter Central Coast, North Coast and South Coast Branches. Across Branches, incidence of undertaking water-based recreation remains relatively constant over time, with only marked fluctuations notable for the Southern Ranges and Hunter Central Coast Branches. In fact, water-based activities tend to exhibit a cyclical trend in the Hunter Central Coast Branch, low in 2008, 20012 and 2016 and high in 2010 and 2014.
Figure 4.3.1a: Walking Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
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ter C
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oast
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th C
oast
Nor
ther
n In
land
% recent visit of PWG park
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 43
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 4.3.1b: Walking Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
Figure 4.3.2a: Water-Based Recreation Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
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outh
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ges
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th C
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ater
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ney
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Mou
ntai
nsH
unte
r Cen
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oast
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th C
oast
Nor
ther
n In
land
% recent visit of PWG park
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 44
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 4.3.2b: Water-Based Recreation Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
Incidence of undertaking picnicking and dining activities tends to be highest in the Greater Sydney Branch, averaging around a 20%-21% incidence rate from 2008 to 2016. Incidence of picnicking and dining activities were significantly low in 2016 for the Southern Ranges Branch (3% - with consistently low incidence rates evident since 2010) and the Hunter Central Coast Branch (5% - compared with 11%-12% from 2008 to 2012). A significantly high 22% of visitors to the West Branch in 2016 undertook picnicking and dining activities (see Figures 4.3.3a and b for more detail). Touring and sightseeing activities have tended to increase with time for parks visited in the Blue Mountains Branch, increasing from 16% in 2008 to 23% in 2016. A similar trend can be observed for the South Coast Branch since 2010 (from 9% to 19% in 2016). More detail can be observed in Figures 4.3.4 a and b).
33
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2010
2008
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Wes
tS
outh
ern
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ges
Sou
th C
oast
Gre
ater
Syd
ney
% recent visit of PWG park
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 45
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 4.3.3a: Picnicking and Dining Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
Figure 4.3.3b: Picnicking and Dining Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
9
6
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2010
2008
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ount
ains
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oast
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th C
oast
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ther
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% recent visit of PWG park
22
4
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3
3
3
3
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4
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11
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2012
2010
2008
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2010
2008
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2014
2012
2010
2008
Wes
tS
outh
ern
Ran
ges
Sou
th C
oast
Gre
ater
Syd
ney
% recent visit of PWG park
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 46
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 4.3.4a: Touring and Sightseeing Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
Figure 4.3.4b: Touring and Sightseeing Activities at most recently visited PWG park by PWG Branch
23
19
18
16
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10
12
7
8
9
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11
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13
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
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2010
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2012
2010
2008
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2014
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Blu
e M
ount
ains
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ter C
entr
al C
oast
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th C
oast
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ther
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% recent visit of PWG park
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Wes
tS
outh
ern
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ges
Sou
th C
oast
Gre
ater
Syd
ney
% recent visit of PWG park
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 47
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Sample sizes are generally too small to analyse other activities over time at the PWG Branch level. However, for the Southern Ranges Branch, incidence of undertaking snow sports is of interest. In 2016 almost one third of those on their most recent visit to a PWG park undertook snow sports (32%), higher than 2008, 2010 and 2014 levels (18%, 24% and 29% respectively), but slightly lower than 2012 levels (40%). (See Figure 4.3.5)
Figure 4.3.5: Snow Sports at Recently visited park in the Southern Ranges Branch
4.4 Satisfaction with Most Recent Visit to a PWG Park
Respondents who had visited a PWG park were asked to give an overall satisfaction rating based on the experience of their most recent visit. For all years mean satisfaction was calculated using the following scores:
2 points – Very satisfied 1 point – Satisfied 0 points – Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied -1 point – Dissatisfied -2 points – Very Dissatisfied
Those answering can’t say were excluded from the mean satisfaction score calculation. The closer the mean score to 2 points, the higher the level of satisfaction. Analysis by PWG Branch has only been provided for overall satisfaction (i.e. satisfied + very satisfied) and is detailed in figures 4.4a and b. Three Branches in 2016 had an overall satisfaction percentage of 96% in 2016 - North Coast, Blue Mountains and West. However, the highest mean satisfaction score in 2016 was achieved for the Blue Mountains Branch (1.62). The lowest proportion satisfied overall in
32
29
40
24
18
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 48
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
2016 was observed for the Southern Ranges Branch (92%), with the Hunter Central Coast Branch attaining the lowest mean satisfaction score in 2016 (1.49). The proportion having overall satisfaction with their most recent visit to a PWG park has been steadily increasing over time for parks in the North Coast Branch, from 89% in 2008 to 96% in 2016. The highest mean scores for satisfaction were achieved in 2016 for the Blue Mountains Branch (1.62), the Northern Inland Branch (1.59) and the South Coast Branch (1.57). In general, the Greater Sydney Branch achieves the highest mean scores for satisfaction over time, with averages ranging from 1.47 to 1.58 over the period from 2008 to 2016. Blue Mountains and South Coast Branches follow closely, with the West Branch achieving the lowest mean satisfaction scores over the period, ranging from 1.25 to 1.67.
Figure 4.4a: Satisfaction with most recently visited PWG park by Branch
96
93
96
94
93
90
95
89
91
93
93
86
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90
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89
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Blue Mountains
Hunter CentralCoast
North Coast
Northern Inland
% recent visit of a PWG park
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mean – 1.51 Mean – 1.56
Mean – 1.48 Mean – 1.43
Mean – 1.54
Mean – 1.41 Mean – 1.46
Mean – 1.38 Mean – 1.53
Mean – 1.49
Mean – 1.44 Mean – 1.54 Mean – 1.47 Mean – 1.46 Mean – 1.62
Mean – 1.34
Mean – 1.39 Mean – 1.37
Mean – 1.59
Mean – 1.50
2016 Telephone Survey to Monitor Visits to NSW PWG Managed Parks Page 49
Roy Morgan Research June, 2017
Figure 4.4b: Satisfaction with most recently visited PWG park by Branch
96
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95
89
94
94
96
89
86
92
95
100
88
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94
83
92
91
93
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
West
Southern Ranges
South Coast
Greater Sydney
% recent visit of a PWG park
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mean – 1.47 Mean – 1.52
Mean – 1.48 Mean – 1.49
Mean – 1.57
Mean – 1.59 Mean – 1.22
Mean – 1.61 Mean – 1.40
Mean – 1.53
Mean – 1.35 Mean – 1.67 Mean – 1.32 Mean – 1.25 Mean – 1.53
Mean – 1.47
Mean – 1.55 Mean – 1.58
Mean – 1.50
Mean – 1.51