Slide 1

Anthony J. MarcheseProfessor, Mechanical EngineeringDirector, Engines and Energy Conversion LaboratoryColorado State UniversityFort Collins, CO 80523http://www.engr.colostate.edu/~marcheseMotivation for Studying Combustion (MECH 558): Fossil Fuel Depletion, Climate Change, Human Health Concerns from Combustion Generated Pollutants, Fire Safety, Energy DensityMECH 558 Lecture #1/MotivationAugust 24, 20152010 Engines and Energy Conversion LaboratoryPeak OilAre we there yet?

The Anomalous Age of Easy Oil

FFC/GDP is fundamentally constrained by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics!The Master EquationFossil Fuel Depletion (A Matter of WHENnot IF)

Fossil Fuel Consumption

Peak OilAre we there yet?

Peak OilAnomalous Age of Easy Oil is Nearing its End

Campbell, C. J. (2012). The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy. Energy, Transport and the Environment, Springer. Peak OilAnomalous Age of Easy Oil is Nearing its End

Campbell, C. J. (2012). The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy. Energy, Transport and the Environment, Springer. Peak OilAnomalous Age of Easy Oil is Nearing its EndNon-Conventional Liquid Fossil FuelsSubstantial Resources Still Exist for GTL or CTL

Enhanced oil recoveryPotential Liquid Hydrocarbon Production (Gbbl)Brandt, A. R and Farrell, A. E. (2007). Scraping the bottom of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources. Climate Change, 84, pp. 241-263.Proven Fossil Fuel ReservesOil, Gas and Other

Shale Gas: Vast U.S. Resource

Shale Gas: Vast U.S. Resource

Climate ChangeRole of Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2 Emissions

Keeling Curve, CO2 at Mauna LoaRed line is 57% of fossil fuel CO2 emissionsClimate ChangeRole of Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2 Emissions

Climate ChangeRole of Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2 Emissions

Climate ChangeDisappearing Glaciers: Patagonia Glacier

Climate ChangeDisappearing Glaciers: Mt. Kilimanjaro

FebruaryFebruaryMarchClimate ChangeMelting of the Polar Ice Sheet

Climate ChangePredicted Rise in Sea Level

Climate ChangeNatural Gas Combustion is Better than CoalRight?It generally believed that burning natural gas for energy is better than coal (or oil) in terms of greenhouse gas emissions:Why is it the case that CH4 combustion should be better than coal?Is CH4 substitution advisable for stationary power plants, natural gas vehicles, all of the above?What about emissions of unburned methane (CH4) into the atmosphere? The global warming potential of CH4 is a factor of 34x (or 86x) higher than CO2.

Climate ChangeNatural Gas Combustion is Better than CoalRight?Many opportunities for CH4 to be emitted into the atmosphere from wells, to gathering pipelines, to gathering compressor stations, to processing plants, to transmission pipelines, to distribution networks, to end use!If overall leakage rate is greater than 1.5 %, replacement of diesel trucks with natural gas is a net greenhouse penalty!Leakage rate of 3.0% is tolerable for replacement of coal power plants with natural gas.

#Confidential to Colorado State University Gathering and Processing Methane Emissions ProjectClimate ChangeNatural Gas Combustion is Better than CoalRight?Combustion research is important here as well: methane exhaust emissions from natural gas compression engines, on-road natural gas engines, overall engine efficiency, etc.

MotivationHuman Health Concerns from Combustion Generated PollutantsCOSO2NO2O3PbParticulatesAir contaminants/air toxics

MotivationHuman Health Concerns from Combustion Generated Pollutants

Mortality Relative Risks from 10-g/m3 Increase in PM2.5 (Jarrett, et al.)MotivationHuman Health Concerns from Combustion Generated Pollutants

U.S. EPA Diesel Emissions and Fuel RegulationsMotivationCombustion Generated Particulate Matter (PM)Size (and Chemical Composition) Mattersbut are not regulated

oxy-PAHs

MotivationGlobal Human Health Concerns from Indoor Air Pollution

MotivationGlobal Human Health Concerns from Indoor Air PollutionIndustrialized countries have reduced combustion generated pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98% in the past 40 yearsUrgent public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in agrarian and developing societies

MotivationGlobal Human Health Concerns from Indoor Air PollutionIndustrialized countries have reduced combustion generated pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98% in the past 40 yearsUrgent public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in agrarian and developing societies

MotivationFire Safety and SecurityFire kills more U.S. citizens than all other natural disasters combined.Approximately 4,500 deaths/yearApproximately 25,000 injuries2 million reported fires per year$10 billion/year in property damage

Why cant we prevent unwanted fires on this planet?

MotivationEnergy Density of Liquid HydrocarbonsIn terms of energy density (MJ/m3), liquid hydrocarbons are difficult to beat, especially when air is available as a free oxidizer.Batteries (approx. 1 MJ/kg)Liquid hydrocarbons (approx. 50 MJ/kg)Microcombustors are very promising. What is the energy (in kW-hr) contained is a C battery compared to the same volume of diesel fuel?How long could you power your lap top on diesel fuel?For some applications, batteries will NEVER be feasible in comparison to liquid hydrocarbons.Aviation, for example

http://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/Fig1 bar + unconv.111.16801568938.692010039153.22910940

EIAIPCCCO2 (ppmv)6004002001003000500*Oil & gas from EIA**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be largeOtherMethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands? **Emissions (CDIAC)IPCC coalProven reserves*Reserve growthGt CFossil Fuel Reservoirs and 17502004 Emissions

Fig1 bar + unconv. 2111.168015689Oil38.692010039Gas153.2291094Coal0Coal1200

EIAIPCCCO2 (ppmv)6004002001003000500*Oil & gas from EIA**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be largeOtherMethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands? **Emissions (CDIAC)IPCC coalProven reserves*Reserve growthUnconv. reserves (IPCC)Gt C

Fig stnd case (BAU)298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226300.309285.309280.159923280.13309300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013304.006289.006280.557382280.4782304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778305.088290.088280.77052280.66074305.333290.333280.82689280.70785305.523290.523280.8777280.75119305.671290.671280.92403280.7907305.846290.846280.97624280.83575306.058291.058281.03246280.88352306.293291.293281.0948280.93671306.572291.572281.16477280.99591306.881291.881281.24715281.066307.149292.149281.32358281.1311307.435292.435281.40184281.1979307.766292.766281.48306281.2661308.104293.104281.56525281.3357308.437293.437281.6399281.3967308.787293.787281.72351281.4647309.126294.126281.82398281.5482309.352294.352281.92343281.6289309.615294.615282.02894281.7154309.95294.95282.14836281.8136310.313295.313282.2879281.9284310.642295.642282.42364282.038311.054296.054282.59141282.173311.517296.517282.78783282.3295311.977296.977282.99218282.4915312.444297.444283.20553282.661312.908297.908283.42575282.8358313.443298.443283.67626283.0369314.024299.024283.94823283.2561314.628299.628284.23462283.4836315.242300.242284.52541283.7111315.898300.898284.84426283.9586316.586301.586285.19058284.2264317.26302.26285.5596284.511317.964302.964285.9626284.8219318.717303.717286.3963285.1561319.521304.521286.8679285.5188320.363305.363287.3722285.9074321.253306.253287.9215286.3316322.163307.163288.5124286.7878323.126308.126289.1597287.2883324.157309.157289.8604287.8282325.283310.283290.6277288.4271326.443311.443291.4351289.0541327.641312.641292.2791289.7105328.907313.907293.1935290.432330.14315.14294.0818291.129331.334316.334294.8908291.75332.618317.618295.7795292.443333.938318.938296.6823293.156335.251320.251297.575293.85336.677321.677298.5386294.6338.036323.036299.424295.272339.295324.295300.2326295.868340.512325.512300.9813296.412341.708326.708301.7162296.945342.975327.975302.4844297.488344.294329.294303.2463298.016345.666330.666304.0489298.592347.07332.07304.8735299.165348.547333.547305.7543299.78350.048335.048306.6563300.407351.547336.547307.6001301.059353.055338.055308.596301.749354.475339.475309.5197302.369355.867340.867310.4485302.994357.297342.297311.3811303.624358.786343.786312.3426304.276360.314345.314313.3312304.932361.877346.877314.3537305.631363.406348.406315.3874306.334364.831349.831316.3818306.997366.309351.309317.4374307.704367.848352.848318.479308.389369.419354.419319.511309.063371.102356.102320.566309.751372.901357.901321.673310.477374.728359.728322.799311.218376.586361.586323.947311.975378.476363.476325.117312.748380.399365.399326.308313.537382.358367.358327.523314.343384.354369.354328.76315.164386.387371.387330.02316.002388.459373.459331.305316.858390.571375.571332.613317.73392.724377.724333.946318.619394.918379.918335.305319.527397.16382.16336.689320.452399.44384.44338.1321.396401.76386.76339.538322.359404.13389.13341.004323.341406.55391.55342.498324.343409.01394.01344.02325.364411.53396.53345.572326.406414.09399.09347.153327.468416.66401.66348.723328.509419.2404.2350.243329.491421.72406.72351.719330.418424.22409.22353.156331.297426.7411.7354.56332.132429.18414.18355.932332.925431.66416.66357.278333.681434.13419.13358.599334.401436.58421.58359.874335.087438.98423.98361.083335.741441.36426.36362.233336.365443.7428.7363.327336.961446.01431.01364.368337.528448.3433.3365.36338.07450.57435.57366.305338.586452.82437.82367.205339.077455.06440.06368.065339.546457.28442.28368.883339.992459.49444.49369.663340.417461.7446.7370.407340.821463.9448.9371.114341.205466.09451.09371.788341.57468.29453.29372.43341.917470.48455.48373.04342.246472.68457.68373.62342.558474.88459.88374.171342.853477.08462.08374.693343.132479.29464.29375.19343.397481.51466.51375.66343.646483.74468.74376.106343.882485.98470.98376.527344.104488.24473.24376.925344.312490.51475.51377.301344.508492.8477.8377.656344.692495.1480.1377.99344.864497.43482.43378.304345.025499.77484.77378.599345.175502.14487.14378.875345.314504.53489.53379.135345.444506.95491.95379.376345.563509.4494.4379.601345.673511.87496.87379.81345.774514.38499.38380.004345.867516.91501.91380.183345.951519.48504.48380.348346.027522.08507.08380.499346.095524.72509.72380.638346.156527.4512.4380.763346.209530.12515.12380.876346.256532.87517.87380.977346.295535.67520.67381.068346.329538.51523.51381.146346.356541.4526.4381.215346.377544.33529.33381.274346.393547.2532.2381.322346.402549.89534.89381.361346.407552.42537.42381.392346.407554.82539.82381.413346.401557.08542.08381.426346.391559.23544.23381.431346.376561.26546.26381.429346.357563.19548.19381.419346.334565.02550.02381.402346.307566.75551.75381.377346.275568.4553.4381.347346.241569.96554.96381.31346.202571.44556.44381.267346.16572.84557.84381.218346.115574.17559.17381.163346.066575.42560.42381.103346.015576.61561.61381.037345.96577.4562.4380.641345.903578.17563.17380.273345.843578.89563.89379.927345.781579.59564.59379.597345.716580.24565.24379.282345.649580.4565.4378.523345.126580.57565.57377.819344.646580.73565.73377.16344.201580.89565.89376.537343.784581.03566.03375.944343.39581.16566.16375.377343.015581.27566.27374.832342.656581.36566.36374.307342.311581.43566.43373.799341.979581.48566.48373.307341.657581.52566.52372.83341.346581.53566.53372.365341.043581.52566.52371.914340.749581.49566.49371.474340.463581.45566.45371.045340.184581.38566.38370.626339.911581.3566.3370.218339.646581.2566.2369.818339.386581.09566.09369.427339.132580.96565.96369.046338.884580.81565.81368.673338.642580.65565.65368.307338.404580.48565.48367.95338.172580.29565.29367.6337.945580.08565.08367.257337.722579.87564.87366.921337.503579.64564.64366.591337.289579.41564.41366.27337.08579.16564.16365.953336.874578.9563.9365.642336.672578.63563.63365.338336.474578.35563.35365.039336.28578.06563.06364.746336.089577.76562.76364.458335.902577.45562.45364.175335.718577.13562.13363.897335.537576.81561.81363.625335.36576.48561.48363.356335.185576.14561.14363.093335.014575.8560.8362.833334.845575.45560.45362.578334.679575.09560.09362.328334.516574.72559.72362.082334.356574.35559.35361.839334.198573.98558.98361.601334.043573.6558.6361.366333.89573.21558.21361.134333.739572.82557.82360.907333.591572.43557.43360.682333.445572.03557.03360.461333.301571.63556.63360.243333.159

OilGasCoalBiosphereBusiness-as-Usual(2% annual growth until 50% depletion, then 2% annual decline)total fossil+biosphere 15 ppmgas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280oil CO2 ppm + 280Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

Fig coal phaseout298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226300.309285.309280.159923280.13309300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013304.006289.006280.557382280.4782304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778305.088290.088280.77052280.66074305.333290.333280.82689280.70785305.523290.523280.8777280.75119305.671290.671280.92403280.7907305.846290.846280.97624280.83575306.058291.058281.03246280.88352306.293291.293281.0948280.93671306.572291.572281.16477280.99591306.881291.881281.24715281.066307.149292.149281.32358281.1311307.435292.435281.40184281.1979307.766292.766281.48306281.2661308.104293.104281.56525281.3357308.437293.437281.6399281.3967308.787293.787281.72351281.4647309.126294.126281.82398281.5482309.352294.352281.92343281.6289309.615294.615282.02894281.7154309.95294.95282.14836281.8136310.313295.313282.2879281.9284310.642295.642282.42364282.038311.054296.054282.59141282.173311.517296.517282.78783282.3295311.977296.977282.99218282.4915312.444297.444283.20553282.661312.908297.908283.42575282.8358313.443298.443283.67626283.0369314.024299.024283.94823283.2561314.628299.628284.23462283.4836315.242300.242284.52541283.7111315.898300.898284.84426283.9586316.586301.586285.19058284.2264317.26302.26285.5596284.511317.964302.964285.9626284.8219318.717303.717286.3963285.1561319.521304.521286.8679285.5188320.363305.363287.3722285.9074321.253306.253287.9215286.3316322.163307.163288.5124286.7878323.126308.126289.1597287.2883324.157309.157289.8604287.8282325.283310.283290.6277288.4271326.443311.443291.4351289.0541327.641312.641292.2791289.7105328.907313.907293.1935290.432330.14315.14294.0818291.129331.334316.334294.8908291.75332.618317.618295.7795292.443333.938318.938296.6823293.156335.251320.251297.575293.85336.677321.677298.5386294.6338.036323.036299.424295.272339.295324.295300.2326295.868340.512325.512300.9813296.412341.708326.708301.7162296.945342.975327.975302.4844297.488344.294329.294303.2463298.016345.666330.666304.0489298.592347.07332.07304.8735299.165348.547333.547305.7543299.78350.048335.048306.6563300.407351.547336.547307.6001301.059353.055338.055308.596301.749354.475339.475309.5197302.369355.867340.867310.4485302.994357.297342.297311.3811303.624358.786343.786312.3426304.276360.314345.314313.3312304.932361.877346.877314.3537305.631363.406348.406315.3874306.334364.831349.831316.3818306.997366.309351.309317.4374307.704367.848352.848318.479308.389369.419354.419319.511309.063371.102356.102320.566309.751372.901357.901321.673310.477374.728359.728322.799311.218376.586361.586323.947311.975378.476363.476325.117312.748380.399365.399326.308313.537382.358367.358327.523314.343384.354369.354328.76315.164386.387371.387330.02316.002388.459373.459331.305316.858390.555375.555332.613317.73392.677377.677333.946318.619394.826379.826335.305319.527397382336.689320.452399.21384.21338.1321.396401.45386.45339.538322.359403.72388.72341.004323.341406.02391.02342.498324.343408.35393.35344.02325.364410.72395.72345.572326.406413.11398.11347.153327.468415.48400.48348.723328.509417.78402.78350.243329.491419.96404.96351.719330.418422.03407.03353.156331.297424409354.56332.132425.87410.87355.932332.925427.66412.66357.278333.681429.36414.36358.599334.401430.96415.96359.874335.087432.45417.45361.083335.741433.82418.82362.233336.365435.08420.08363.327336.961436.24421.24364.368337.528437.3422.3365.36338.07438.27423.27366.305338.586439.14424.14367.205339.077439.93424.93368.065339.546440.63425.63368.883339.992441.25426.25369.663340.417441.79426.79370.407340.821442.25427.25371.114341.205442.64427.64371.788341.57442.94427.94372.43341.917443.18428.18373.04342.246443.35428.35373.62342.558443.44428.44374.171342.853443.47428.47374.693343.132443.5428.5375.19343.397443.54428.54375.66343.646443.57428.57376.106343.882443.59428.59376.527344.104443.61428.61376.925344.312443.62428.62377.301344.508443.62428.62377.656344.692443.61428.61377.99344.864443.6428.6378.304345.025443.57428.57378.599345.175443.54428.54378.875345.314443.49428.49379.135345.444443.44428.44379.376345.563443.38428.38379.601345.673443.31428.31379.81345.774443.24428.24380.004345.867443.15428.15380.183345.951443.06428.06380.348346.027442.96427.96380.499346.095442.86427.86380.638346.156442.75427.75380.763346.209442.63427.63380.875346.255442.5427.5380.977346.295442.37427.37381.068346.329442.23427.23381.146346.356442.09427.09381.215346.377441.94426.94381.274346.393441.79426.79381.322346.402441.63426.63381.361346.407441.46426.46381.392346.407441.3426.3381.413346.401441.12426.12381.426346.391440.95425.95381.431346.376440.77425.77381.429346.357440.58425.58381.419346.334440.39425.39381.402346.307440.2425.2381.377346.275440.01425.01381.347346.241439.81424.81381.31346.202439.61424.61381.267346.16439.4424.4381.218346.115439.2424.2381.163346.066438.99423.99381.103346.015438.77423.77381.037345.96438.23423.23380.641345.903437.72422.72380.273345.843437.24422.24379.927345.781436.77421.77379.597345.716436.32421.32379.282345.649435.88420.88378.976345.579435.01420.01378.236345.063434.2419.2377.549344.59433.42418.42376.903344.15432.69417.69376.292343.738431.99416.99375.71343.348431.31416.31375.153342.977430.66415.66374.618342.622430.02415.02374.101342.281429.41414.41373.602341.952428.81413.81373.118341.634428.23413.23372.648341.326427.66412.66372.191341.026427.11412.11371.746340.735426.57411.57371.313340.452426.04411.04370.89340.175425.52410.52370.477339.905425.02410.02370.074339.642424.52409.52369.68339.385424.04409.04369.295339.133423.57408.57368.919338.888423.1408.1368.55338.647422.64407.64368.19338.412422.2407.2367.837338.182421.76406.76367.491337.956421.33406.33367.153337.735420.9405.9366.82337.518420.49405.49366.496337.306420.08405.08366.177337.098419.68404.68365.864336.894419.29404.29365.558336.694418.9403.9365.256336.497418.52403.52364.962336.305418.15403.15364.671336.115417.78402.78364.386335.929417.42402.42364.107335.747417.07402.07363.832335.567416.72401.72363.562335.391416.37401.37363.297335.218416.03401.03363.036335.048415.7400.7362.779334.88415.37400.37362.528334.716415.05400.05362.28334.554414.73399.73362.035334.394414.42399.42361.795334.237414.11399.11361.559334.083413.8398.8361.326333.931413.5398.5361.097333.781413.21398.21360.871333.634412.91397.91360.649333.489412.63397.63360.43333.346

OilGasCoalBiosphereAlternative Case: Coal Phaseout(+2%/yr to 2012; +1%/yr to 2022; linear shutdown between 2025-2050)total fossil+biosphere 15 ppmgas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280oil CO2 ppm + 280Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)