“TREND UNIT”Why we all can and should be trend watchers

Introduction

Let’s face it: never before has knowing about emerging consumer trends been as important as it is now. Luckily, finding out about trends has become much, much easier. In a world that’s fully con-nected, where tens of thousands of smart professionals and ama-teurs are spotting, observing, thinking, and innovating, and putting their findings online for all to see, insanely valuable resources are up for grabs.

Yes, this avalanche of trends, insights and new business ideas may cause information overload, but there is definitely an exciting innovation overload, too. The only thing that separates YOU -- passionate CEO, marketer, entrepreneur -- from being in the know is the time to devote to absorbing these sources, if not adding to them yourself.

So the world truly is your oyster, and yet, when we ask profes-sionals if and how they spot trends and, even more importantly, how they apply those trends to their own brands, a lot of chal-lenges and confusion still seem to exist. So let’s quickly look at why it's crucial to stay on top of the latest trends, and then move on to discuss how to thrive in this trend arena.

Why consumer trends?

Why consumer trends? Well… Why not? In a nutshell, tracking consumer trends is a crucial way to understand what consumers are doing now and may be doing next. Which ideally should inspire you to dream up new goods, services and experiences for and with your customers to meet and anticipate their needs.

And the latter should lead to more revenues, more profits. So con-sumer trends are as much about making money as anything else in the business world. Don't believe us? Hey, Tom Peters seems to be on board!

So, what is a trend?

How about: “A statistically significant change in performance of measured data which is unlikely to be due to a random variation in the process.”

That won't get the creative juices going, though. So consider what we came up with a few years ago, and which is still holding up well:

“A manifestation of something that has ‘unlocked’ or newly serviced an existing (and hardly ever changing) consumer need, desire, want, or value.”

Example? One of the core human needs is to be in control, or at least to have the illusion of being in control. No wonder then, that the online world (a new technology), which firmly puts the individ-

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ual in the driver’s seat, is so addictive. We dubbed this manifesta-tion ONLINE OXYGEN, and as the Net continues to put even more control in the hands of ordinary consumers, we're spotting sub-trends every day.

It's more than...Trend watching is about more than spotting the next color, fabric or hot designer. Sure, black may be back, and miniskirts may re-conquer the catwalks in 2008, but the consumer arena is infinitely more complicated than that. Oh, and trend watching isn't about ‘hard-core’ futurism, either. Better leave gazing into a crystal ball, predicting what's going to happen 15 to 20 years from now, to futurists and scenario planning departments. Trend watching is about observing and understanding what’s already happen-ing, major and minor, mainstream and fringe.

Once you fully understand what’s driving trends, why it is that some things take off and others sink, it’s time to figure out which of them will affect your business, and determining the impact of the ones who do. Next? Figuring out how to counter the possible threats, and capitalize on the many opportunities. To quote fellow trend watcher Michael Tchong: “Catch the next wave before it catches you”.

Point of viewWhich brings us to having a point of view about the world around you. The more trends you track, and the more able you are to put these trends into context, the more guidance you'll have. When you have a broad point of view, even tiny observations start to make sense.

Back to harsh reality, though: how many marketers do you know who could give you a concise answer if asked about, let’s say, the future of consumerism? In the same vein, how many business execs do you know who are capable of explaining the main ten (or five, or even three) trends shaping not only their industry but the entire business arena? And how many CEOs can skillfully lay out a kick ass plan of attack based on their understanding of the ‘New Consumer’? (No, Steve Jobs doesn’t count! ;-)Too many challenges and old habits are apparently stopping individuals across organizations from realizing that their future depends on having a well-honed point of view. Why?

And the challenges are…

Last year we conducted a large number of unscientific yet very telling surveys, sessions, and conversations, all dedicated to un-earthing the challenges faced by professionals who want to make trend watching an integral part of their jobs or corporate activities.

After accumulating and categorizing, these main three ‘trend chal-lenges’ emerged:

The 3 main challenges

1. Management and corporate culture (‘They’re just not into trends’)

2. Resources (Information overload or starvation, lack of time and/or lack of funds)

3. Understanding and applying trends (How to think Big Picture? What to actually do with your point of view?)

If you're facing one (or maybe all three) of these challenges, you know how hard it can be to remain upbeat about making trend watching an integral part of your daily work. The good news is that none of these challenges are life-threatening. In fact, as stated at the beginning of this document, everything you need to overcome these challenges is available.

Our recommendation? Start your own corporate TREND UNIT. Today. Even if that unit is just you (in which case it's really a

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TREND YOUNIT ;-). The TREND UNIT is not some multi-million dollar/euro/pound affair. It doesn't have to employ a staff of five (though that eventually would be nice ;-). It's more a state of mind. It can be low-cost, unauthorized, and grass roots if need be.

So don’t wait for permission, which for now will solve the corporate culture challenge. Find a few unaccounted for hours per week and start to weave your own web of 24/7 resources, especially free ones, even if those sources are just well categorized links on a company-wide accessible wiki. This will, at least for now, solve the resource/money issue. Then fine-tune your point of view, while inviting like-minded colleagues to brainstorm on how to translate your first findings to your brand and your organization (hereby addressing challenge number 3). We guarantee that within weeks, your TREND UNIT will be the focus point for trend-minded col-leagues and other contributors. Let’s look at some more detailed ways to go about this.

1. Management and corporate culture

L’enfer, c'est les autres. This seems to hold true in particular for innovative minds stuck in less-than-innovative corporations. Some replies to our surveys resembled a bitch-fest more than anything else. Boards stuck in a retro '50s mindset. Obsession with share-holders instead of what’s driving today’s consumers. CEOs dis-missing every new trend, every new business concept because "they would never use that”. No process in place on how to deal with bottom-up innovations. And so on. Is your trend project faced with fierce competition from the people who should actually be its greatest fans? Then consider this:

• Sometimes, it’s a language/perception issue. The word ‘trends’ may still evoke images of flamboyant fashion designers caress-ing delicate fabrics, or crazed teens in Japanese parks dressed in full Louis XIV garb. So try talking about the Future of Busi-ness. Or the Future of Consumerism. Or Drivers of Change. Or Currents (From Ian David, MD of McKinsey & Company: “Companies that ride the currents succeed; those that swim against them usually struggle. Identifying these currents and developing strategies to navigate them is vital.”)

• Make sure the trends you’re trying to explain are not just about YOU or your ideas and scenarios. Don’t make it an airy fairy one (wo)man show. Instead, be the messenger, the humble reporter. Show real-world examples of how other firms are al-ready cashing in on a specific trend. Show all-round respected brands, and of course as many as direct competitors as possi-ble. Never let it be just about YOU!

• Don’t present numbers, but do have them ready at all times.

• Make it visual. Pictures. Videos. Or, even better:

• Let people try stuff out. And conceptualize, demonstrate! More on the latter in version 2.0.

 

It is crucial to use the above to get senior support. Without back-ing from at least one senior member of the management team, it IS going to be hard to get things done.

Still feeling as lonely as ET with-out Drew Barrymore? Here’s a tip from a senior, forward thinking FMCG exec: find the other ETs. Surround yourself with other out-there people. Hire them.

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2. Resources and mindset

Weave your web of resourcesYes, we know. There’s too much information, or not enough. Some information is too expensive, while some free information is not rele-vant enough. And above all, time to thoroughly and properly track de-velopments is lacking. In the next few months, we'll turn this section into an extensive reading and re-sources list. For now, check out some first thoughts on where to spot, and DO re-read VIRTUAL ANTHROPOLOGY:

Checklist: where and how to spot trends

Which trend (re)sources to track and utilize? Here's what works for us:

✓Papers, websites, blogs, news, newsletters (online and offline); also see VIRTUAL ANTHROPOLOGY

✓Magazines (online and offline), books

✓TV, movies, radio

✓Seminars, fairs, trade shows

✓Eaves-dropping, chat rooms, conversations

✓ In-house trend units

✓Advertising at large

✓Other trend firms, thinkers (philosophers, architects, soci-ologists), management gurus

✓Street life, travel

✓Friends, colleagues, family

✓Customers(!)

✓Trend reports

✓Consultants, researchers, experts

✓Universities

✓Shops, museums, hotels, airports

✓Catalogues

✓Competition

Yes, there are definitely more sources out there. So please do add your tips. In the next version of this document, the above sources will be clickable, linking to explanations on how to make the most of each source.

Let the information come to you

No need to endlessly surf from site to site: by now, every aspiring trend watcher has of course set up his or her own RSS based trend feeds (we like Bloglines). Other ways to let information come to you are Google Alerts and Technorati Mini. Enter search phrases like ‘consumer trends’ or ‘world’s first’ or a specific trend name. A ready-to-use flow of trend-goodness will come your way.

And now for the good news...

Still feeling overwhelmed? Don’t feel like doing it all yourself? The good news is that plenty of (new) trend firms and blogs are work-ing hard to do the work for you, often for free (well, to a certain degree, we've all got to eat ;-). Spend a few days on PFSK, Iconoculture, Influx Insights, Agenda Inc and yes, trendwatching.com, and copy, then aggregate as many consumer trends and insights as you can, and you will have enough material to start building your 'framework' (see below for more on this). One more tip: not only will you find dozens of trends in our data-base, we have also collected more than 200 articles about our trends, from publications like the Guardian and Time Magazine. The articles are a great source for getting additional insights and examples from trend watching journalists.

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MindsetAfter putting your web of resources in place, you’re left with an equally important job: sharpening your trend watcher mindset. The biggest challenge here is to maintain an open, curious mind. Closely observing instead of judging the world around you; ask yourself ‘why’ whenever you notice something new, instead of looking for the faults. Realize that you are not necessarily your customer: your professional interests should be broader than your personal interests. In other words, think and act like an entre-preneurial journalist. How?

Fine-tuning your trend watcher mindset

• Look cross-industry, cross-discipline, cross-demographics, cross-class.

• Think like a (paranoid) CEO, even if you don’t get paid like one. Stop being 'just' a specialist and aim to become a generalist: yes, we all need to be a specialist in something. However, we also need to be generalists, to understand the big picture and how we and our companies and products fit in.

• Never dismiss anything too quickly. Many of today’s suc-cess stories, from the camera phone to the Airbus 380, were dismissed and ridiculed from the day they were imag-ined, announced or conceived.

• Ask questions. Why is something happening? Why was it introduced? Why do consumers like it? Or why do they hate it?

• Try stuff out: the proof of the pudding is always in the eating.

• Read a random magazine every week (buy one you would normally NEVER read), or a random blog!

• Taboos, prejudices, dogmatism, negativity: all of this will stop you from picking up new ideas (and becoming a more pleasant person!), understanding many of your customers, and will thus cost you money.

Network

Every self-respecting TREND UNIT will of course want to be able to tap into a network of spotters around the world; one’s eyes and ears in the streets of Tokyo, lanes of London, stegen of Amster-dam, avenues of New York and Paris, avenidas of Sao Paulo. Too expensive? Hey, if we can do it, so can any other small or mid-sized company. Take a look at our Springspotter Network, which rewards spotters per observation with points that can be re-deemed for gifts. On the site, you'll find a brief but to the point description of what it is we do with the network, and how we do it.

So tap into THE GLOBAL BRAIN, enlist your colleagues, your friends, your family, your fans, your lead users, your mainstream customers, your suppliers, and reward them with presents, your goods or services, credits on your website, or something they can put on their resume.

Announce and promote your network on your website, in your stores. Oh, and don’t you dare to complain this is hard to do if you’re with an international firm: as you actually have offices and colleagues around the world, it means your network is basically in place, you’re just not effectively exploiting it. Note: more on how to manage your spotter network, and what questions to ask or activi-ties to stage, will follow in TREND UNIT 2.0.

Ongoing activities

Needless to say, the TREND UNIT is an ongoing affair. First and foremost you will have to:

• Build your web of resources• Build your trend framework (see below)• Set up your own weekly or monthly sessionsAbout the latter: get a motley crew of people together who are interested in discussing your findings, your trends. One easy way to do this is to pick, present, discuss and brainstorm just one trend. Assign one person to do a 20 minute presentation, spend 30 minutes discussing what's truly driving this trend from a con-sumer need perspective. Spend another 30 minutes relating these findings to your industry and brand: what will the impact be? Last but not least, ask all participants to dedicate half an hour to com-ing up with new ideas for your brand. A list of possible trend appli-cations can be found below.

For further intercompany distribution of your work, set up a semi-official TREND UNIT website or page, explaining what you do, which trends you’re tracking, including the implications for your company. Use a corporate wiki to invite people to contribute. More on this in the next update.

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No time?

Besides making use of trend curators who will do part of the work for you, there are other ways to find the three to four hours a week you will need to get your TREND UNIT going. Be honest: how many meetings could you afford to skip each week? How many hours of mindless television watching can you forego? Spend those hours tracking trends and building your framework instead, and you’re already doing more than your competition!

3. Understanding and applying trends

Understanding trends

To make sense of trends, and especially their impact and context, we work with a trend framework, which is just another name for a long list of all business and consumer trends we’ve spotted so far. Now, we're all about consumer trends, but that leaves two other main trend categories unaddressed. In general, switched-on com-panies track three trend levels :

• Macro trends (the STEEP approach below is a good start if you want to categorize macro trends)

• Consumer trends

• Industry trends

Macro trend categories

• Social

• Technological

• Economic

• Environmental

• Political

The easiest way to start building your own framework is to copy trends from existing trend curators (you can find our trends at www.trendwatching.com/trends), then add your own findings. Your framework will expand quickly, meaning fewer and fewer ‘sur-prises’ every time you spot something new. After a while, you will find that most new spottings will fit in with one of your bigger trends (and thus will make sense). Those observations that even-tually cannot be categorized with one of the trends in your frame-work may then possibly constitute a new trend, or may turn out to be a fad.

Context

Recurring question: how do all of the trends in my framework re-late to one another? What’s the context? We normally find that consumer trends can be grouped by the core need they've newly addressed or unlocked (see our definition at the beginning of this document), but that still won't show you how certain individual trends are connected. So here's a hands-on (though time-consuming) approach to finding out: construct a matrix featuring all the trends you track, both vertically and horizontally, and do a trend-by-trend 'relationship check'.

You will be able to see, and figure out, how our GRAVANITY trend links to GENERATION C (the need to express if not show off), how THE GLOBAL BRAIN links to CUSTOMER MADE (transpar-ency of talent means more co-creation participants), and how CUSTOMER-MADE links to GRAVANITY (co-creation can lead to literally naming products after co-creators), and so on.

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Applying trends

We’ve already mentioned setting up your weekly or monthly trend 'ideation' sessions: pick, present, discuss and brainstorm one trend. But how do you actually apply a broad consumer trend to your own brand or industry? The simple list below is crucial:

Applying trend informationAsk yourself if the trend you’re discussing has the potential to:

1. Vision Influence your company's vision.

2. New business conceptsCome up with a new business concept, an entirely new venture.

3. New products, services, experiencesAdd ‘something’ new for a certain customer segment.

4. Marketing, advertising, PRSpeak the language of those consumers ‘setting the trend’: we haven’t come across too many trends that were not useful in shaping (part of your) marketing messages.

5. InternalImprove your organizational processes.

Often, marketers and entrepreneurs tell us they use our trends as conversation starters. And while that may sound wishy-washy, if that conversation includes:

• A quick presentation: trend definition, insights, and some hands-on examples of how other companies/industries already capital-ize on these trends (see www.springwise.com for examples),

• A discussion about if and how the trend may impact your indus-try, and

• What you can do with this using the checklist above,

then the results can be very powerful. We will outline a minute-by-minute session in the next update of this document.

Secret weapon

Please make sure your ideation sessions take place in an inspir-ing environment, accompanied by a glass of wine or other bever-age, and plenty of good food. None of the above is rocket sci-ence. In the end the process of applying findings to your own industry is a mix of common sense and creativity. Feed your-self, in every possible way!

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