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Aon Benfield Canadian Rendezvous
Dominic Christian Executive Chairman, Aon Benfield International October 2013
What has changed since 1987
2
Then Now
Space Travel Men on the moon Private Space Travel
Car Travel Flying Self driving
Energy Running out Shalegas
Navigation Maps GPS
Information Yellow pages Internet
Life Expectancy 74 81
Income level per capita $16k $52k
Pensions & Healthcare Company provided Personal responsibility
Money Big Bang Quantitative easing
Canada, then and now and...
3
1987 2013
Population 26 mn 35 mn
GDP $ 430 bn $ 1,825 bn
Unemployment 8.80% 7.10%
10 year govt. bonds Canada 10% 2.8%
US 8% 2.5%
Exchange rate CAD-USD 0.85 0.99
CAD-GBP 0.44 0.63
Inflation Canada 4.4% 0.9%
US 1.5% 1.5%
Trend in mega-liability events?
D&O, E&O new; asbestos a fine insulator
BP, TEPCO $50B+ events
P&C premium $ 11 bn $ 53 bn
Impact of macro changes to risk world
Rebalancing Economic Mix Risk Mix
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
G7 GDP
E7 GDP
2000 2010 2020 2030
AVERAGE RATE CHANGE
Percentage of gross domestic premium
written
Employment growth CAGR,
% last decade
GDP PPP ($ trillion)
2.2
0.6
Knowledge- based industries
Other
4x
1997 2007 Scenario 2020
100%= 37 55 84 EUR bn
Property
General Liability 37 43 52
63 57 48
EUROPEAN EXAMPLE
Source: McKinsey Source: McKinsey Source: World Bank, PwC
EUROPEAN EXAMPLE
Aon Benfield | Proprietary&Confidential 4
2014 – ten key themes
1. Insurer price to book values and long term interest rates / bond yields
2. Excess capital strategies
3. Broader implications for insurance accounting reform
4. Unraveling of central bank balance sheets/actions and inflation
5. Risk capital and solvency development in life insurance
6. The insurability of water based (flood) perils - public to private…
7. Stimulating non-life reinsurance demand
8. The future of intermediated distribution
9. The metabolic rate in which catastrophe xl reinsurance is digested
10. Product commoditization in non-life lines
Aon Benfield | Proprietary&Confidential 5
Largest reinsurance brokers & ILS managers
Reinsurance Brokers - 2012 ILS Managers
Lockton 0.02
UIB 0.05
Miller
0.05 BMS Group
0.06
Cooper Gay 0.18
JLT 0.20
Towers Watson 0.21
Willis Re* 0.68
Guy Carp* 1.08
Aon Benfield* 1.51
USD Bn
Top 3 $ 3.3 bn 81% Top 10 $ 4.0 bn 100%
* 2012 results updated for top 3 brokers which constitutes ~80% of the industry
Annual Nat Cat Issuance – 2013 Year-to-Date
Rank Investment bank Notional Deal count % of notional % of deals
1. Aon Benfield Securities 2.1 10 42.6% 47.6%
2. Guy Carpenter 1.8 7 35.8% 33.3%
3. Goldman Sachs 1.3 5 26.0% 23.8%
4. Swiss Re 1.3 5 26.8% 23.8%
5. Deutsche Bank 0.9 3 18.9% 14.3%
6. Munich Re 0.9 3 18.1% 14.3%
7. Willis 0.2 1 3.7% 4.8%
7. BNP Paribas 0.1 1 2.5% 4.8%
Total Nat Cat Issuance – 2010 Onward
Rank Investment bank Notional Deal count
% of notional
% of deals
Total 2010 to 2013
1. Aon Benfield Securities 8.2 30 44.1% 47.0%
2. Swiss Re 5.7 24 31.4% 29.3%
3. Goldman Sachs 5.6 22 31.2% 27.2%
6 Aon Benfield | Proprietary&Confidential
Client challenges to answer and articulating value better
Product Development
& Market Selection Marketing & Distribution
Pricing & Underwriting
Policy Administr
ation Claims
Investment Mgmt. &
Reinsurance
Leadership questions:
•Are my products differentiated?
•How strong is my value proposition?
•Am I playing in profitable markets?
•How is the market changing?
•How can I win the distribution game?
•What channel partners should I select?
•Is my value proposition clear to customers and distributors?
•Am I pricing risks correctly?
•Am I leveraging company knowledge and data?
•Am I underwriting efficiently?
•Are my costs under control?
•Are my core systems and functions robust?
•Are we paying the right amount on claims?
•Are we paying claims in an efficient, low cost, expedient manner?
•Am I taking too much risk?
•Am I transferring risk efficiently?
•Is my investment portfolio optimally structured ?
Aon Benfield | Proprietary&Confidential 7
Understanding how we build value for clients Having a view on the worth of what we deliver
Helping clients understand the value we deliver Good feelings and right solutions
Confidence in the future
8
Mayors of Toronto and London
1987 2013
1998
Arthur C. Eggleton
Mel Lastman
Robert Ford
2013 Boris Johnson