AP US Government & Politics

Chapters 9 & 10

Nominations, Campaigns,

Elections and Voting Behavior

Political Campaigns and Candidates

• Electronic media, especially TV, have dramatically changed American campaigns since 1952.

• Televised debates have been used since 1960.

The Modern Campaign• Campaigns design a product to sell -the candidate-• $$$ - Campaigns spending most money end up selling

their product…they win!

(Estimated 4 billion in 2000, 1.5 billion on TV alone & 5 billion in 2004) 2008 - http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/finance/comparison/by-spending/

2012 - http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

• Internet websites• $ spent on advertising – Majority of funds to TV ads & the

rest to print ads, staffing, travel, hiring polling and technology firms etc.

• SuperPACs http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/stewart-oversee-colbert-superpac-15358509

Campaign OrganizationOrganized chaos and major stress!

Candidate at center – constant press & public

Professional and volunteer help

- Campaign manager and political consultant

Also, fundraisers, media team for ads & tv, press secretary, personal appearance planners, speech-writers, state and regional coordinators, and volunteer support groups at every level (local, state & national)

Incumbent Advantage –

Can use current position & actions to – orchestrate appearances, spend in key areas, get easier access to television etc.

- Already have large, proven campaigns- Congressmen/women hold greater incumbency advantage than

presidents due to local power & unlimited terms

‘The Undecided’ are essential

Regarding party identification…– 2/3 of voters identify with a major party– Independents on the rise

– Candidates try to preserve their base while winning over the independents and the undecided.

– Independent voters more likely to shift impressions during a campaign

Today's campaign strategists target voters by battleground states, or on specific categories like age and race.

Nomination

Official endorsement of a candidate for office

by a political party.– Success in the nomination game requires momentum,

money, and media attention.

Campaign Strategy– Master game plan that guides a candidate’s electoral

campaign.

Competing for Delegates … winning your party’s nomination

– National Party Convention – Super-delegates – Party leaders automatically get

delegate slot at national party convention.

Road to the White HousePrimaries v. General Election – Campaign strategies differ

Primary: election at polling place w/i party to determine

candidate

OR Caucus: simultaneous precinct level meetings

throughout state to select/determine party candidate

General Election: Electorate at precinct polling places casts votes for a party’s candidate to win office

Primary season strategy draws in party activists, thus candidates tend to lean more to the left or right.

First, Iowa Caucuses in February, then New Hampshire Primaryhttp://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/

Frontloading: choosing early date on primary calendar

- This tradition poses problem – not representative of US electorate, hence the creation of Super Tuesday where a number of states hold primaries.

Open Primary: Registered voters voting in any primary regardless of party affiliation - potential ‘raiders’ could vote in opposite party primary

Closed Primary: Only registered party affiliates may vote

Nonpartisan Primary: A qualifying primary used to reduce the set of candidates that go on to the general election (city, county, school boards)

Run-off Primary: Top two candidates move on to general election regardless of party affiliation

Blanket primary: vote for candidates from more than one party for different offices.

Types of Primaries

• January 3: Iowa (caucuses) • January 5: Wyoming (GOP caucuses) • January 8: New Hampshire (primary) • January 15: Michigan • January 19: Nevada (precinct caucuses), South Carolina (R primary) • January 26: South Carolina (D primary) • January 29: Florida

• February 1: Maine (R) • February 5: Alabama, Alaska (caucuses), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut,

Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D caucuses), Illinois, Kansas (D caucuses), Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucuses), Missouri, Montana (R caucuses), New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, American Samoa (caucuses)

• February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R), Nebraska (D caucuses), Washington (D&R caucuses) • February 10: Maine (D caucuses) • February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia • February 19: Hawaii (D), Washington (R primary), Wisconsin

• March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont • March 8: Wyoming (D) • March 11: Mississippi • April 22: Pennsylvania • May 6: Indiana, North Carolina • May 13: Nebraska (primary), West Virginia • May 20: Kentucky, Oregon , • May 27: Idaho (R) • June 3: Montana , New Mexico (R), South Dakota

• August 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado • September 1-4: Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota

Road to the White HouseGeneral Election –

Strategy changes from primary elections… no longer discussing

polarizing issues.

Candidates focus on position or divisive issues & emphasize

valence issues, which do not divide the public.

How are the presidential candidates selected in their party?

PRIMARIES/CAUCUSESEach political party in each state will have…

Caucus- choose local delegates, informal precinct meeting express preference for a presidential candidate(Michigan - Democrats)ORPresidential PrimaryElectorate (qualified voters) votes at polling placeAlso, elect state delegates who will vote for presidential candidates at future conventions(Michigan – Republicans)

District and State Conventions- select delegates to attend larger conventions - these delegates vote on presidential candidates

Political Party National Conventions (Democrats & Republicans)- State delegates select a presidential candidate for their party- adopt platform- unify the party

Example of a national convention…Opening session: organization speeches, keynote speaker2nd and 3rd sessions: speeches, propose platformFinal session: nominating speeches, nominate party’s presidential

candidate

Where and How to CampaignAfter winning nomination, candidates spend more time

campaigning in pivotal states w/ large #s of electoral votes

- Nixon learned lesson when changing his vow to campaign in all 50 states in 1960 (lost) to campaigning in 10 populous “battleground” states in 1968 (won)

Modern campaigns waged through….TV, Internet, direct mail & debates.

Spots: paid television time/ads Visuals: news broadcasts

Some say most debates do not affect campaigns. (Exceptions JFK & Reagan)

Why?Candidates resort to stock speeches to avoid dreaded slip of

the tongue which could be exploited by opposition.

Negative CampaigningDoes it work?

Unfortunately, it works!

Issues get lost when the attacks/mudslinging begins, which is

almost immediately.

In 2004, Bush attacked Kerry as a "flip-flopper".

"Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" attacked Kerry's Vietnam war record –

- Dems claimed the 527 group bankrolled by Bush supporters in Texas

- Republicans claimed MoveOn.org was connected to Kerry campaign

In 2008, McCain attacks Obama as a socialist & not being as patriotic. Obama attacks McCain as ‘more of the same’ (like Bush) & disregarding the middle class.

Now in 2012, Romney campaign criticizing Obama as not providing hope or change… also saying we cannot afford 4 more years.

Historically, the GOP has had better reputation in

foreign policy issues

Democrats in office during wartime up to Bush Sr. in Gulf.

But, in 2004, George W. Bush argued invasion of Iraq made the world safer.

- Kerry launched attack calling invasion "a diversion from the battle against our greatest enemy-al Qaeda.”

In 2008, McCain’s POW hero status overpowers Obama’s lack of national experience…but Obama celebrity-like

What about the ‘packaging of a president’? Who does the public view as better looking, more poised, eloquent?

Are our officeholders becoming more skilled at running for office than in governing?

- Candidates can appear to be something they are not… Actors trying to win a competition, rather than politicians trying to change policy issues to better society.

Campaign FinanceMoney comes from public & private sources:-Congressional elections funded by donations from –

- Individuals (maximum limit $2000 but most give less than $200),

- Political Action Committees (PACs limited to $5000), and - Political Parties.

$$$ plays large role in Congressional elections.

- PresidencyIn primaries, candidates receive federal matching funds for all individual donations of $250 or less.General election funds come from government unless the candidate does not accept the federal $ - if they don’t, then they are not subject to spending limits

These federal dollars come from 1973 “check off law” – voters electing to donate (in 2004, $3) to campaigns

Campaign Finance1974 Federal Campaign Reform Law

- created Federal Election Commission (FEC)

http://www.fec.gov/ - limited individual donations to $1000 per candidate (now 2,000)

- reaffirmed ban on union & corporate donations

- PACs must have at least 50 members, give to at least 5

federal candidates and limit donations to $5000

- Primary & General counted as separate elections

- Minor party candidates can receive partial federal funding if reach 5% of vote in previous election

These laws to control spending did not work as intended………..

Campaign Finance LoopholesSoft money: Donations made to party organization

rather than a particular candidate

- 2002 Bipartisan Reform Act, now subject to limits

527 groups: independent political organizations not regulated by FEC & not subject to the same contribution limits as PACs – claim they are issue-oriented rather than candidate-oriented

Bundling: gathering individual checks to donate to

campaign, the ‘family bundle’

Independent Expenditures: Money spent by these independent organizations – usually in the form of advertising – candidates may not have link

Campaign Finance2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform – aka…McCain-Feingold

- Banned contributions of soft money to national parties

- Prohibits the use of funds for "issue ads“ mentioning

candidate…

Legal ads w/candidate’s name will be “approved” by candidate

- Doubled individual donation limits to $2000.

Regardless, parties create 527s to skirt the regulations.

McCain-Feingold was contested & opponents said it violated 1st amendment free speech

Supreme Court upheld McCain-Feingold.

Campaign FinanceOriginal 1974 limits on independent expenditures were struck down in Buckley v. Valeo in 1976 on the grounds of freedom of speech

- Opened up spending by independent organizations!

…OK to spend a “Buck”

• ‘Electioneering communication’ i.e. broadcasts about candidate must include disclaimer stating it was not endorsed by the candidate.

- prohibited 60 days before general election & 30 days prior to primary

Regulating Campaign FinanceThe RULES: http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/citizens.shtml

See above link because FEC regulations change!

- Individuals may contribute up to $2,500 to a federal candidate in each primary and general election.

(up to $117,000 over 2 years)- Interest groups limited to $5000- Presidential candidates from major parties qualify for public funds if they raise $100,000 in contributions then are limited to spending what they receive ($75 mil in 2004) & cannot accept private monies- Donor disclosure when over $200- FEC enforces laws- Corporations, labor unions, foreign contributions all illegal Political Action Committees (PACs): independent arms of organizations like corporations and unions – influential!

The Proliferation of PACs

– Political Action Committees are funding vehicles created by the 1974 campaign finance reforms.

– A corporation, union, or some other interest group can create a political action committee (PAC) and register it with the Federal Election Commission.

– There were 4,611 PACs during the 2007–2008 election cycle, which contributed $412.8 million to House and Senate candidates.

– PACs donate to candidates who support their issue.– PACs do not buy candidates, but give to candidates

who support them in the first place.

ELECTIONS• Direct elections of the voting eligible population

(electorate) for legislators• Primary elections determine a party’s nominee• General elections determine who wins the office between

the nominees of parties• Initiative petitions enable voters in 23 states to place

proposed legislation on ballot if gather required # of signatures on a petition (usually a number equaling 10% of the voters in the previous election).

• Referendums are a form of direct legislation in which voters may approve or disapprove some legislative act (such as school bonds) or constitutional amendments.

Congressional Elections & Population

1911-12, House of Representatives fixed at 435 seats

Reapportionment Act of 1929 established permanent method for apportioning the seats according to each census

State Legislators responsible for drawing district lines (redistricting) after every decennial census = every 10 years … States may gain or lose districts, district populations may shift

Census Bureau conducts population count every 10 yrs.

One Person, One VoteCourt ruled each person's vote is worth as much as another's

(Equal Protection clause under 14th amendment)

– 1946 Court refused to look at malapportionment: unfair distribution of representatives to a legislative body

– 1962 Baker v. Carr - Court ruled they have right to intervene in Tennessee's reapportionment efforts that ignored economic growth & population shifts

– 1964 Reynolds v. Sims - Seats in both houses of state legislature should be based on population.

– 1964 Wesberry v. Sanders - Court expanded Baker and Reynolds principle to include the drawing of Congressional district boundaries according to the one person, one vote principle.Gerrymandering & malapportionment illegal!

Voting Behavior and Elections

Democracy in theory v. Democracy in practice

– Roughly 50% of VEP inactive in presidential years– Elitism– Media "images" rather than informing electorate.– Voting for "lesser of two evils“ instead of third party

Are we truly a democracy?

If not, who to blame?

Is the system democratic?

- Opportunity to participate exists.

The Voter• Middle-aged people vote more than the young or very old.

– In 2000, over ½ between 18 and 24 did not register – Peaks in mid 40-50s & declines after 60

• By 2000, 3% more women voting than men• Participation ↑ if graduate from college• Income, education, social class, & occupation closely

related; the higher these are, the more likely the person will vote.

• Churchgoers vote more than nonchurchgoers• African Americans less likely due in part to legal games,

intimidation & violence that kept them out prior to the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

• Understanding your influence in politics = political efficacy

The Nonvoter35 to 45% of population

Who are they? In general…- Less educated, rural, nonwhite, very young or very old, and

have less emotional investment in politics.

Pattern emerging from data – the more advantaged in the social system are more likely to vote than the disadvantaged.

The Socioecomonic FactorsSocioeconomics……..-Generalizations- Social class, income, and occupation.

– Upper and middle classes go for the GOP; lower classes go for Democrats.

– Workers, unions vote Democrat; professionals & business people support Republicans.

Being a member of many groups causes one to be "cross-pressured“

– An older, wealthy, Caucasian gay male– A young, African American military sergeant – A middle-aged, wealthy, Catholic teacher

Coattails…

Common pattern - incumbent president's party loses ground.

Recent years seem to show that the coattail impact is diminishing.

• A large number of states have scheduled gubernatorial elections in off-years to insulate them from presidential politics.

Types of Elections

Realignment election - Parties win support of a new coalition of voters...a shift in the bases of electoral support from one party to another

Maintaining election – no change in party i.d. of voters

Deviating election – voters maintain party identity but still cast their vote for the

opposition

SuffrageSuffrage or Franchise = The Right to Vote

The Constitution, written in 1787, grants states the right to establish voter

qualifications. States restricted suffrage to white male property owners

over 21 years of age.

Brief history of the expansion of the American electorate…

1. Early 1800s, states drop religious, property ownership and property tax qualifications.

2. 1870, 15th Amendment, intended to extend suffrage to any man regardless of race, color or previous condition of servitude.

3. 1920, 19th Amendment, Women’s suffrage

4. 1960s, Civil Rights Acts – federal government restricting tactics to “get around”* the 15th Amendment, including the elimination of poll taxes and literacy testing

5. 1971, 26th Amendment, no state can set voting minimum age limit higher than 18 years old.

How were minorities, especially African Americans,

disenfranchised after the 15th Amendment is ratified?

1. VIOLENCE, lynching

2. Threats and social pressures – loss of employment,

eviction etc.

3. literacy testing

4. poll taxes

5. gerrymandering = drawing district lines to favor/limit the voting strength or political influence of a group or party

6. White Primary – party restricting preliminary elections to white voters

Government’s solution to the problem of states and

citizens disenfranchising minorities (mainly African

Americans) …

Civil Rights Acts

1957

Set up Civil Rights Commission investigating voter

discrimination

Injunction: federal court orders, allows federal court to order states/people to obey laws and provide equal opportunity to all qualified voters

1960 federal government appoints federal voting referees

1964 federal government bans registration discrimination

Poll Taxes unconstitutional & dropped – 24th Amendment (1964)

Voting Rights Act of 1965• Any new election law needs to be “pre-cleared” through

Department of Justice• Voting Examiners are appointed to troubled

States/Counties to oversee election process• Extended amendments in 1970, 75, & 82 suspend the

right to administer literacy testing until 2007.• All laws affect every level –

local, state & national elections

Voter RegistrationDebate exists over whether voting should be made easier.

– Voter has to take initiative & may not make the effort.

• 1993 "Motor voter" bill - People could register in motor vehicle offices, public assistance benefits offices, and military recruitment offices.

Ballots differ in states/counties… Secret Australian ballot adopted by every state by 1950.

-Party-column (Indiana) ballots group candidates of each party in columns, making straight-ticket voting easier.

-Candidates on an office-column (Massachusetts) ballot grouped according to office they are running for.

In 2000, Oregon went to an all-mail ballot.

2000 Florida elections – controversial butterfly ballot & chads

FLORIDA 2000 BALLOT

Recounting ballots – manually done…have to determine the intent of the voter

Court can decide if recount is done in a fair manner – Florida considered to be in violation of equal protection clause of 14th amendment which stopped the recount in 2000…. Bush wins.

Framers of Constitution – their plan for electing U.S. President &

Vice President

12th Amendment, 1804

Electors chosen by parties still cast two ballots –

One for the President &

One for the VP

12th amendment

separated the elections

to prevent a tie

(which occurred in 1800)

Electing the President - Electoral College ……

1. Each Party selects a slate of electors. The # of electors in a state depends on population…

Also, it is the same # of Congresspersons representing the state.

Minnesota has 2 senators & 8 representatives = 10 Congresspersons therefore, MN gets10 electors.

Congressmen/women CANNOT be electors!Electors are delegates chosen from party.

http://www.commissions.leg.state.mn.us/gis/congmapdata.htm

Electing the President Electoral College

2. General Election every 4 years – Tuesday after first Monday in November

Qualified voters (electorate) cast ballots for all electors

representing a particular party in each state.

Ballots list candidates’ names instead of parties’ electors’ names.

You are voting for a slate of electors for a political party to vote for you, not directly for the candidates!

Electing the President Electoral College

3. Electoral Vote –

Monday after second Wednesday in December

-Electors of the party winning the popular vote in each state cast ballots for Pres. & Vice Pres.

-Winner-take-all: Candidate receiving popular vote in state gets ALL electoral votes in state.

Electing the President Electoral College

4. Electoral Ballots counted – January 6

- Electors cast two ballots…one for pres & one for vice … this prevents a tie…separation resulted from election of 1800 and 12th amendment

5. Candidate receiving majority of electoral votes

(at least 270 of 538) becomes President – January 20

What if no majority (less than 270 electoral votes) is reached?

The election is thrown into Congress.

House of Representatives will select President &

Senate will select Vice President

Flaws of Electoral SystemWinner of popular vote may not win the majority of the

electoral votes (due to population differences in states) 1824 Adams d. Jackson, 1876 Hayes d. Tilden , 1888 Harrison d. Cleveland,

2000 Bush d. Gore http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.html

No enforced law requiring electors to cast vote for popular candidate (it is expected though)“faithless electors” http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Hx/FaithlessElectors.html

Strong minor party bid may make it impossible for a candidate to achieve 270 votes, then election goes to Congress

- Most widely supported reform is direct popular election!

Small states are overrepresented in the electoral college system – obviously these states are proponents of the system regardless of its flaws ….

Bush v. Gore, 2000

5-4! Court reversed Florida high court - there were no uniform standards for inspecting ballots…in violation of equal protection clause within the 14th amendment

Ruling settled the election by stopping the

recount –

George W. Bush became president even though did not win popular vote.