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APEIS project: results in APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase I and proposal in phase II phase II Mikiko KAINUMA Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group, APEIS) (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group, APEIS) AIM/APEIS Workshop as a part of APEIS IEA activities AIM/APEIS Workshop as a part of APEIS IEA activities 7 7 - - 12 November 2005, NIES, Japan 12 November 2005, NIES, Japan

APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

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Page 1: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

APEIS project: results in APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II

Mikiko KAINUMA Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental StudiesAIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies(Integrated Environmental Assessment Group, APEIS)(Integrated Environmental Assessment Group, APEIS)

AIM/APEIS Workshop as a part of APEIS IEA activities AIM/APEIS Workshop as a part of APEIS IEA activities 77--12 November 2005, NIES, Japan12 November 2005, NIES, Japan

Page 2: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 2

Objectives of APEIS IEAObjectives of APEIS IEA

Developing IEA tools to assess innovative optionsDiffusing and applying IEA tools for selected Asia-Pacific countries (China, India, Thailand, Korea)Developing quantitative innovative scenarios using IEA tools

Econ

omic

/soc

ial I

ndic

ator

Environmental QualityNational Environment Goals

Innovational strategies

Nat

iona

l Eco

nom

icTa

rget

s

Page 3: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 3

Structure of phase I in APEIS IEAStructure of phase I in APEIS IEA

AIM Model Development for APEISAIM Model Development for APEIS

Land use

TemperaturePrecipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity

Socio-economicindicator

Impact on food demand

Adaptation strategy

AIM/ Impact/Ecosystem

Detailed process model for climate change impact assessment focused on surface water recycling, crop productivity and vegetation

Developed as a communication platform in orderto construct Asia -pacific regional environmental outlook supported with multi -regional environment

Futureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase

Environ-mental Burden

Environment Fund

Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)

Was

tes

Environmental Burden

Rec

ycle

Technology needsTechnology assessment

EnvironmentalIndustry

Environmentalburden

Consumer

Research on new technologies

AIM/MaterialOne country CGE model with CO2 and material balance, interface with environmental technology model

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/ Local/Country/Inter

Developed for linking CO 2, SO 2, NO 2, SPM reduction program

AIM/End -useCountry Based

Technology Model

AIM/Top -downWorld Economic

Model

Land use

TemperaturePrecipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity

Socio-economicindicator

Impact on food demand

Adaptation strategy

Land use

TemperaturePrecipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity

Socio-economicindicator

Impact on food demand

Adaptation strategy

Land use

TemperaturePrecipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity

Socio-economicindicator

Impact on food demand

Adaptation strategy

AIM/ Impact/Ecosystem

-

- -economic CGE model

Futureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

Futureeconomic trendFutureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trendFutureenvironmental trend

India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/Trend

Environmental Burden

Rec

ycle

Technology needsTechnology assessment

EnvironmentalIndustry

Environmentalburden

Consumer

Research on new technologies

IndustryGreen Purchase

Environ-mental Burden

Environment Fund

Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)

Was

tes

Environmental Burden

Rec

ycle

Technology needsTechnology assessment

EnvironmentalIndustry

Environmentalburden

Consumer

Research on new technologies

AIM/MaterialOne country CGE model with CO2 and material balance, interface with environmental technology model

Emission Intensity of SO2 in ChinaEmission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/ Local/Country/Inter-Provincial

Developed for linking CO 2, SO 2, NO 2, SPM reduction program

AIM/End -useCountry Based

Technology Model

AIM/End -useCountry Based

Technology Model

AIM/End -Country Based

Technology Model

AIM/Top -downWorld Economic

Model

AIM/Top -downWorld Economic

Model

AIM/TopWorld Economic

ModelAIM Family

Strategic databaseStrategic database

Fundamental Database

Index Base

Model Base

Strategy Option Base

Page 4: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 4

Structure of phase I in APEIS IEAStructure of phase I in APEIS IEA

A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of APEIS/IEA, including an environment-economy model, an ecosystem/health impact model, a water resource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy model and an energy technology modelStrategic database as well as indicators for APEIS/IEA use Systematic projections of environmental trends as well as assessments of innovation needs and innovation options based on the above models and database

Page 5: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 5

Participating OrganizationsParticipating Organizations

NIES (Japan) Kyoto University (Japan)Energy Research Institute, State Development Planning Commission (China) Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS (China) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad(India) Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand) Korea Environment Institute (Korea)Seoul National University (Korea)

Page 6: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 6

Members of AIM teamMembers of AIM team

at NIES, March 2005

Page 7: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 7

Phase II in APEIS IEAPhase II in APEIS IEA

Assessment of environmental innovation options by using country-scale CGE model for China, India, Korea and Thailand– Effectiveness of environmental protection– Impact on economic activities

Integration of country models– Japan and Korea

Page 8: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 8

Capacity building for partnersCapacity building for partners

Prototype models for China, India and Thailand have already beenPrototype models for China, India and Thailand have already beenAssessment of environmental innovation options will be main taskAssessment of environmental innovation options will be main task

developed.developed.s in phase II. s in phase II.

Page 9: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 9

Features of CGE modelFeatures of CGE model

EnvironmentalEnvironmentalpartpart

Economic partEconomic partproduction and service

sector

householdgovernment

abroadmarket importexport

producedService/goods

final demand,recreational and cultural services

Environmental service

production sectors

intermediate,energy,

capital, labor,environmental service/goods

capitallabor

Natural capital

Environmental service[land, fuels, resources, water, air quality]

natural capital

maintenance sectors

energy,intermediate,capital, labor

maintenance and augmentation service/goods maintenance costs

[desulphurization, reforestation]

Drivers ofenvironmental service change

CO2, SOx

CO2, SOx

CO2, SOx

Feedback mechanismof ecosystem to socio-economy

Page 10: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 10

Examples of Innovation options (1)Examples of Innovation options (1)Collection of qualitative information on innovative Collection of qualitative information on innovative environmental optionsenvironmental options

Renewable Energy PromotionSolar PV (water pumping, SHS),Solar Water Heater and Dryer,

Biomass (thermal & electricity),Biogas (thermal & electricity),

Capacity buildings, etc.

Transport SectorBiodiesel and Gasohol,

Electricity vehicles, NGV,Walking Street,

Fixed route Van bus,Vehicle Emission Clinic, etc.

Residential SectorThin tube project,

Brown Rice Label 5 Project,Hi-eff Air condition & refrigeration,

Energy efficient house,Human awareness, etc.

1226

Solid Waste ManagementHi-eff. waste incinerator,

Fly ash application in concrete works,Recycled PET bottle to be carpet,

Aluminum Recycling for Prosthesis,Waste Bank in school, etc.

1121

AIT, Thailand

Page 11: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 11

Examples of Innovation options (2)Examples of Innovation options (2)Illustrations of Strategies: Illustrations of Strategies: Renewable Energy PromotionRenewable Energy Promotion

Biomass Power Plant

Biofuel Plant

Other Renewable E.Applications

Thermal Energy FlowElectricity Flow

MSWBiogas

Grid

RETs Knowledge & Database Center

1. Solar Home System Project2. Solar PV Power System for Rural Schools3. Solar Power plant 4. Solar Water Heater 5. Solar Dryer6. Green Fuel & Cook stoves 7. Rice Husk for Mushroom Drying Kiln8. Biogas in Livestock Farms & fertilizer9. Biogas from Landfill MSW10. Biogas in Tapioca Starch, Palm oil Plant& Slaughter houses11. Rice Husk & Parawood Power Plant12. Hybrid Power System for National Parks13. Biodiesel and Gasohol Program 14. Renewable Map, Database and Museum & TEENET

1, 4

2, 4

3 4, 5

8

4, 5

10

12

6, 7 9

8

11

13

14

SDB flow sketch for Thailand by AIT

Page 12: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 12

Examples of Innovation options (3)Examples of Innovation options (3)Illustrations of Strategies: Illustrations of Strategies: Transport Sector (Urban)Transport Sector (Urban)

Sky Train (*Extended)

Metro (*Extended)*Rapid Bus System

Eco-Mass Transit Program Eco-Education Program Alternative Fuel Program

Efficient technology Program Eco-management ProgramEco-friendly Transport Program

*Econo-driving license

Econo power contest

Speed limit & Vehicle

Maintenanceawareness

Van Bus System

*Hybrid & H2

Gasohol

NGV

Biodiesel

Car Free DayWalking Street

Bike Lane

*Smart Parkingsystem

*Smart Traffic Signal System

*Car NavigationSystem

Combat Illegal Oil

Tire Recyclingprogram

Used Lubricating Oil System

Workplaces near Residences Program

*Smart StreetLighting system

*Electricityvehicles

Emission Std. * = Future scenario

Collection of SDB for Thailand by AIT

Page 13: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 13

Image of resultsImage of results

Preliminary analyses have already been done during phase I. – India: Water, air and land use – China: Air pollution and health impact

During phase II, integration between country-scale models and strategic options will be implemented. – Water, air, solid waste, ...– Assessment of environmental protection and

economic activity

Page 14: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 14

Image of results: IndiaImage of results: India

production sector

capital

intermediate

laborland water

waste water value addednatural resources

produced commodity

sewage service(treat waste water)

direct discharge

agriculturelivestock

forest

water pollutionland scarcitydeforestation

water scarcity

SO2

CO2air pollutionmaintenance of nature

consumption / investment

Economic activity and related impacts on water, air and land were integrated, and effects of environmental policies were assessed.

Economy

Environment

Page 15: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 15

Reference case resultsReference case results

0

1

2

3

4

5

1993 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Index (1993=1)

GDP

CO2 emissions

SO2 emissions

land for agr iculture, pasture and forest

water supply

water pollution

EnvironmentalConstraints

Page 16: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 16

Economic Impact from Environmental Economic Impact from Environmental ConstraintsConstraints

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1993 2000 2010 2020 2030Year

GD

P c

hang

e %

env. const

Environmental constraints➜Income reduction

Page 17: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 17

Effects of Environmental InvestmentsEffects of Environmental Investments

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1993 2000 2010 2020 2030Year

GD

P c

hang

e %

env. constenv. const + early investment

Environmental investments➜mitigation of constraints➜Increase of income

Environmental inv.➜Reduction of inputs

for economic activity➜Costs

Page 18: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 18

Image of results: ChinaImage of results: ChinaCGE and other models (Technology selection model, simple concentration model and health impact model) applying Chinaare integrated for assessing direct and indirect air pollution impact.

Meta-analysis

Concentration-response

relationship

Urban populationexposed to ambient

air pollution

Rural populationexposed to ambient

air pollution

Ambientair pollution

concentration

Atmosphericpollution

concentration model

Air pollutioninduced health

effects

Pattern of rural energyconsumption

Emissions byLPS and AS

Laborloss

Medicalexpenditure

Top-downmodel(CGE)

Bottom-upmodel

(Technology selection)

Health impact

Energy servicedemand

Energy priceEmission

constraints

Emission distribution

Economic systemresponse

CGE

Technology selection

Concentration

Direct health impact

Page 19: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 19

PM10 emissions and concentrationPM10 emissions and concentrationin in BaUBaU and policy caseand policy case

BaU

Policy

BaU

Geographical distribution of PM10 emissions across China in 2020 (unit: ton)

Policy

Ambient concentration of PM10in urban areas of China in 2020

Page 20: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 20

Economic impact of air pollution management Economic impact of air pollution management and recovery from countermeasureand recovery from countermeasure

BaUPollutionreduction

Pollutionreductionwith clean

energy policy

Although only introduction of environmental constraint will bring economic damage, appropriate countermeasures will be able to mitigate the economic damage.

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

trillio

n yu

an, 1

997

pric

e

health benefithealth damageenvironmental policy

Page 21: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 21

Activities in APEIS Phase IIActivities in APEIS Phase II

Scenario Analysis for Promotion of Sustainable Development in the context of Regional Economic and Environmental Integration– Through AIM model application liked with Strategic Database

(SDB)– Environmental policy linkage related to Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs)

Support of Model Building in Asian countries– Focus on environmental problems in each country such as

solid waste management, energy system and environmental investment/industry

Promote international collaboration through international projects such as ‘National Performance Assessment and Strategic Environment Framework Phase II, Great Mekong (SEFII’, Network of Institute for Sustainable Development (UNEP-NIED), and UNEP-GEO4

Page 22: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,
Page 23: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 23

Millennium development goals, Indian targets and Climate Change

Millennium development goals and global targets

India’s 10th plan (2002-2007) and beyond targets

How these address climate change concerns?

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day

Target 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Double the per capita income by 2012

Reduction of poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012

Reduce decadal population growth rate to 16.2% between 2001-2011 (from 21.3% during 1991-2001)

Income effect would enhance choices for cleaner fuels

Reduce GHG Emissions due to lower population

Enhanced adaptation capacity due to improved food & health security; resilience to cope with risks from extreme events

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of schooling by 2007

Increase in literacy rates to 75% by 2007 (from 65% in 2001)

Enhanced adaptation capacity due to improved skills, flexibility to shift vocations/locations

Page 24: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 24

Millennium development goals, Indian targets and Climate Change

Millennium development goals and global targets

India’s 10th plan (2002-2007) and beyond targets

How these address climate change concerns?

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005 and in all levels of education no later than 2015

At least halve, between 2002 and 2007, gender gaps in literacy and wage rates

Enhanced capacity of women to deal with added social risks from climate change

Fuel substitution away from unsustainable traditional biomass

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

Reduction of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012 (115 in 1980, 70 in 2000)

Enhanced resilience of children to health effects of climate change due to improved access to health services

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Target 6: Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR)

Reduction of MMR to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012 (from 3 in 2001)

Enhanced resilience of women to health effects of climate change due to improved access to health services

Page 25: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 25

Millennium development goals, Indian targets and Climate Change

Millennium development goals and global targets

India’s 10th plan (2002-2007) and beyond targets

How these address climate change concerns?

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseasesTarget 7: Halted by 2015 and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDSTarget 8: Have halted by 2015 and begin to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

Have halted by 2007; 80 to 90% coverage of high risk groups, schools, colleges and rural areas for awareness generation by 2007

25% reduction in morbidity and mortality due to malaria by 2007 and 50% by 2010

Higher resilience of the population due to enhanced capacity to deal with epidemicsEnhanced resilience to added risk of Malaria and other vector borne diseases

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainabilityTarget 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resourcesTarget 10: Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking waterTarget 11: Have achieved by 2020 a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers

Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)Sustained access to potable drinking water to all villages by 2007Commission 14.4 GW hydro and 3 GW by other renewables between 2002-2007Electrify 62,000 villages by 2007 through conventional grid expansion, remaining 18,000 by 2012 via decentralized sources like solar, wind, small hydro and biomass.Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

Lower GHG and local emissions; lower fossil imports; reduced pressure on land, resources and ecosystemsHigher adaptive capacity to climate variability due to enhanced water supplyHigher adaptive capacity due to enhanced reach of health/ education facilities in rural areas

Page 26: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 26

Millennium development goals and global targets

India’s 10th plan (2002-2007) and beyond targets

How these address climate change concerns?

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for developmentTarget 12: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system (includes a commitment to good governance, development, and poverty reduction - both nationally and internationally)Target 16: In cooperation with developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youthTarget 17: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countriesTarget 18: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications technologies

Expeditious reformulation of the fiscal management system to make it more appropriate for the changed context

Tenth plan includes state-wise break up of the broad developmental targets.

Higher integration with the global economy

Create 50 million employment opportunities by 2007 and 100 million by 2012 (current back-log of unemployment is around 9%, equivalent to 35 million persons)

Higher mitigative and adaptive capacity from access to global resources and technologies

Enhanced flexibility of jobs and migration

Improved capacity to deal with health risks due to access to advanced medicine and health services

Enhanced adaptive capacity to deal with extreme events from access to advanced information and communication systems

Millennium development goals, Indian targets and Climate Change

Page 27: APEIS project: results in phase I and proposal in phase IIphase II Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group,

AIM, NIES 27

Design SDB flow diagram: Transportation sectorDesign SDB flow diagram: Transportation sector

AHS *1

Eco-drivinglicense

Car sharingsystem

Eco-navigationsystem

Gas

BiofuelConstraint

Bio fuelImport

Bio fuelRefinery

Biomass

BiomassConstraint

Decrease ofCongestion

AHS *2 AHS *1ETC *3 AHS *1VICS *4 AHS *1PTPS *5 AHS *1MOCS *6

Paved Road

HydrogenConstraint

HydrogenImport

Hydrogen(Biomass)

Hydrogen(Gas)

Maintaining Economical

speedsCorrect tire

pressureCorrect

laden weightRev

controlSuppression of

sudden acceleration

Timelyshifting up

Reduction ofillegal parking

Air conditionertemperature adjustment

Air conditionertemperature adjustment

Strengthenroad/bridge

AHS *1TDM *1

Marine con-tainer term.

Joint deliveryfacilities

[Eco driving]

IC cardticket

Teleworking/ SOHO

[Road infrastructure][Freight facilities]

[ICT application]

NOx removalcatalyst

PM removalair filter

Eco educationbudget

Bio refinery Tech. Imp.

FC TechnologyImprovement

Bio refinery R&D budget

FC R&D budget

Large freightstation

Freight facilitiesCapital information

Budget

A

Road capital information

budget

ITS capitalinformation

budgetIC card

preferential treatment system

Car sharingpreferential tax system

Low sulfuroil refinery

Low S oilrefinery plant

budget

S content of oil

PM removalbudget

NOx removalbudget

SO2 emissionregulation

PM emissionregulation

NOx emissionregulation

[Flue gas purification]

Subway

[Public transportation]

Public Trns.capital formation

budget

LRTPrioritybus lane Bicycle Road

Eco-drivingeducationat school

Eco-drivingeducation

via TV program

Eco-drivingeducation

via Web site

Distribution ofeco-driving

leafletDriving monitor

Eco-drivercommendation

Eco-drivingLicense system

Subsidy fordriving monitor

Subsidy forEco-Nav. Sys.

B

C(Priority to public transportation)

M O(Improve of efficiencyof freight vehicle)

(Improve of efficiencyof passenger vehicle)

H(Priority to high efficiency vehicle)

I

K(Priority to train/ship)

L(Priority to large freight vehicle)

Q(Priority to Bus)

R(Decrease ofpassenger transportation)

S(Priority to Train)

Priority topublic

transportation

Priority towalking / bicycle

D(improvement of energy efficiencyof freight transportation)

F(improvement of energy efficiencyof passenger transportation)

T(Decrease ofpassenger transportation)

U(Priority to public transportation)

V X(Improve of efficiencyof freight vehicle)

(Improve of efficiencyof passenger vehicle)

E(reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of freightvehicle)

G(reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of passengervehicle)

(reduction of air pollutantof freight transportation)

J(reduction of air pollutantof passenger transportation)

N(reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of freightvehicle)

P(reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of passengervehicle)

W(reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of freightvehicle)

Y(reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of passengervehicle)

[Eco education]

Environmental/energy tax scenario

Tax benefit forhigh Eff. vehicle

Subsidy forhigh Eff. vehicle

Subsidy forhigh train/ship/air

AA AB

Energy Eff.regulation

by government

Air pollutantregulation

by government

Voluntary planof auto company

AC AE(Improve of efficiencyof freight vehicle)

(Improve of efficiencyof passenger vehicle)

AD (reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of freightvehicle)

AF(reduction of air pollutantand GHG emission of passengervehicle)

Voluntary planof rail company

Voluntary planof ship company

Voluntary planof air company

(Priority to high Eff. vehicle)AG

AH

AI

AJ

[Tax/Subsidy]

[Regulation]

[Voluntary plan of private company]

(Increase of inflow price) (Decrease of initial / O&M priceof high efficiency transportation )

Energy tax Air pollutanttax

GHG tax

Budget of subsidy

Energy Eff.regulation

Air poluutionregulation

Priority to highEff. vehicle

by voluntary plan

Priority to highEff. train

by voluntary plan

Priority to highEff. ship

by voluntary plan

Priority to highEff. ship

by voluntary plan

(Priority to high Eff. airplane)

(Priority to high Eff. rail)

(Priority to high Eff. ship)

VehiclePassenger

Transportation

Small-sizeVehicle

Large-sizeVehicle

Bus

Fuel cellVehicle

Natural GasVehicle

HybridVehicle

Existing OilVehicle

Small-sizeVehicle

Large-sizeVehicle

Bus

Fuel cellVehicle

Natural GasVehicle

HybridVehicle

Existing OilVehicle

Fuel cellVehicle

Natural GasVehicle

HybridVehicle

Existing OilVehicle

PassengerTransportation

Bio-fuel

NOx

H2

SO2

Oil

Train(High eff.)

Train(Electricity)

Train(Diesel)

Train Train

Vehicle

PassengerTransportation

Train(High EFF.)

Ship(Low EFF.)

Ship Ship

Air(High EFF.)

Air(Low EFF.)

Air Air

VehiclePassenger

Transportation

Small-sizeVehicle

Large-sizeVehicle

Fuel cellVehicle

Natural GasVehicle

HybridVehicle

Existing OilVehicle

Small-sizeVehicle

Large-sizeVehicle

Fuel cellVehicle

Natural GasVehicle

HybridVehicle

Existing OilVehicle

FreightTransportation

Train(High eff.)

Train(Electricity)

Train(Diesel)

TrainTrain

Vehicle

Train(High EFF.)

Ship(Low EFF.)

ShipShip

Air(High EFF.)

Air(Low EFF.)

AirAir

*1 TDM: Traffic Demand Management*2 AHS: Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway System *3 ETC: Electronic Toll Collection*4 VICS: Vehicle Information and Communication System*5 PTPS: Public Transportation Priority Systems*6 MOCS: Mobile Operation Control Systems

Gas

Electricity

Freight

CO2

DemandScenario

Trend/PolicyScenario

ConstraintScenario

Confluence

Activity(Innovation)

Activitywith stock

Flow Influence

A

B

C

DH

K

L

M V E

I

N

W

I

B

J

F

OXG

JP

Y

Q STR

AA AB

AC AD

AEAF

AH

AI

AJ

AH

AI

AJ

AG

AG

Activity(Conventional)

A: Activation of New A: Activation of New EEnvironmental Marketsnvironmental Markets

B: Research and Development of New B: Research and Development of New Environmental TechnologiesEnvironmental Technologies

D: Development of New Environmental D: Development of New Environmental InfrastructuresInfrastructures

Over 70 innovation options are combined in systematic manner

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Quantitative SDB CardQuantitative SDB Card

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Production of environmental service (regulating)

Service productionsectors

Related NaturalService

Human and Naturalcapital

Human and Naturalaugmentation of

capital

Climatecontrol

CO2absorption

CO2 sequestationindustry

terestrialabsorbtionocean sink

Forest area Construction,Maintenance

CO2 emissionreduction

Energy savingEnergy mix change

Energy devicePower facility

Urbanclimatestabilization

Air conditioningfacilities

Forest area Construction,Maintenance

Air qualitycontrol

Emission reductionserviceEnergy mix changeEnergy saving

natural absorbtionoxidationdecompsition

Emission reductiondevices, Energy plants

Construction,Maintenance

Flood control Mitigationfactor

disaster preventionindustry

water retentionImpoundment

Green area,Impoundment

Construction,Maintenance

Forest area, Crop area,Impoundment

Construction,Maintenance

Waterpurification

Loadreduction

public water supplywastewater industry

self-purifiction Forest area, Crop areaWater works, Well

Construction,Maintenance

Natural and man-madeimpoundment

Maintenance

Regulating : Benefits obtained from regulation of processes

Service

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AIM, NIES 30

Production of environmental service (provisioning)

ServiceEnvironmental

serviceEnvironmental service

production sectorsRelated Natural

ServiceNatural and Human

capital

Human and Naturalaugmentation of

capital

Water supply Irrigation,Domestic andIndustrialwater supply

Water industry,Irrigation servicesectors

Water hervesting,Surface runoff,EvapotransipirationcontrolGround waterharvesting

Natural base dischargePrimary water resourceGround water resource

Forest maintenance,Crop area increaseNatural and man-made impoundment

Food supply Foodproduction

Agriculture (Paddy rice,Wheat, Cereal grains,Vegetables, Fruit,Nuts, Oil seeds, Sugarcane, Fibers)

Soil formation,Green water,Nutrient cycling

Potential cropproduction

Climate mitigation,Soil adjustment,Fertilizer, Irrigation,Water harvest

Animalproduct

Livestock Bovine cattle, Sheepand goats, hourses,Animal products, Milk,Wool, Silk-worm

Soil formation,Green water,Nutrient cycling

Livestock feedingcapacity

Climate mitigation,Soil adjustment

Fuelwoodsupply

Fuel woodproduction

Fuel wood industry Forest primaryproduction

Forest primaryproduction (vegetationarea)

Forest maintenance,Climate mitigation,Maintenance labor

Provisioning : Goods produced or provided by ecosystems