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APOCALYPSEAPOCALYPSE NOWNOW!!!!!!
GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING IS COMINGIS COMING !!! !!! IS IT COMINGIS IT COMING ? ?
IS IT WARMINGIS IT WARMING ? ?
IS IT GLOBALIS IT GLOBAL ? ?
IS IT NOWIS IT NOW ? ?
IS IT APOCALYPSEIS IT APOCALYPSE ? ?
A.A. IllarionovIllarionov
Adviser to the President of RussiaAdviser to the President of RussiaFebruary 14,February 14, 2005 2005
© © InstituteInstitute of Economic Analysisof Economic Analysis
www.iea.ruwww.iea.ru
Apocalypse now:Apocalypse now:how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earthhow mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth
«Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, «Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow.tomorrow. … … Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world, are likely to pay special attention to the first few weeks of 2005. world, are likely to pay special attention to the first few weeks of 2005. As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded». identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded».
IndependentIndependent, , UK newspaperUK newspaper06 February 200506 February 2005
Meinshausen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request for temperatureEU target request for temperature
Meinshausen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request for COEU target request for CO22 concentration concentration
den Elzen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request EU target request for global COfor global CO22 emissions reduction emissions reduction
den Elzen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request EU target request for regional COfor regional CO22 emissions reduction by 2020 emissions reduction by 2020
(for the OECD – by 30%).(for the OECD – by 30%).
den Elzen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request EU target request for regional COfor regional CO22 emissions reduction by 2050 emissions reduction by 2050
(for the OECD – by approximately 95%).(for the OECD – by approximately 95%).
©ИЭА
Criterion for the temperature increase is nonsense –for thousands of years temperature was more than 2oC higher than
in pre-industrial period WITHOUT anthropogenic CO2 emissions.Temperature variability over last 415 000 years.
Source: Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica).- Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977.
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
415
401
386
372
357
343
328
314
299
285
270
256
241
227
212
198
183
169
154
140
125
111 96 82 67 53 38 24
9
Time, thousands of years before present
Tem
per
atu
re,
oС +2о
©ИЭА
Criterion for speed of temperature increase is Criterion for speed of temperature increase is nonsense – nonsense –
in the past it has been many times higherin the past it has been many times higherthan it was in the 20than it was in the 20thth century. century.
Speed of temperature rise in Central Greenland for the last 50 thousand yearsSpeed of temperature rise in Central Greenland for the last 50 thousand years
Source: NOAA, GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, Alley, R.B., 2004.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-479
27
-441
58
-410
10
-379
76
-342
14
-307
50
-269
84
-232
34
-197
98
-168
82
-143
19
-124
24
-111
27
-943
2
-854
2
-758
4
-642
9
-537
4
-441
6
-350
8
-269
8
-195
9
-123
3
-591
7
683
1159
1657
Time, years
Deg
rees
C fo
r 10
0 ye
ars
+0,6оC
©ИЭАSource: Budyko М.I., Ronov А.B., Yanshin А.l., History of atmosphere, 1985.
Criterion for Criterion for СОСО22 concentration is nonsense – concentration is nonsense –for millions of years for millions of years СОСО22 concentration in the atmosphere concentration in the atmosphere
was much higher than was much higher than 400 400 ppmppm..
CO2 concentration in Lower Cretaceous — Cainozoe.
0,04
©ИЭА
lPCC-used and corrected versions of global temperature anomalies indices for Northern Hemisphere, 1400-1980
Source: S. McIntyre, R. McKitrick, Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series, Energy & Environment. Volume 14, Number 6, 2003.
The “hockey stick” seems to be evident deception – The “hockey stick” seems to be evident deception – the very concept of “Global Warming” is basedthe very concept of “Global Warming” is based
on poorly processed, if not falsified, data. on poorly processed, if not falsified, data.
©ИЭА
Calculations distorted – Calculations distorted – temperature calculations for the USA temperature calculations for the USA
produced by the UK Hadley Centre are visibly distorted.produced by the UK Hadley Centre are visibly distorted.Difference in temperature anomalies measurementsDifference in temperature anomalies measurements for the continental USA produced by NOAA and Hadley, for the continental USA produced by NOAA and Hadley,
11YMA, 111YMA, 1889090−200−20033
Sources: NOAA, Hadley Centre.
©ИЭА
NO Warming in the USA in the 20NO Warming in the USA in the 20thth century – century – temperature temperature ((without urban heat island effect) inwithout urban heat island effect) in 1990 1990s has s has
been been 0,20,2ооС С lower that in latelower that in late 1930 1930s s − − earlyearly 1940 1940ss.. Temperature summer anomalies for the continental USA,Temperature summer anomalies for the continental USA, 11YMA, 111YMA, 1889090−200−20000
Source: Hadley Centre.
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
1880
1883
1886
1889
1892
1895
1898
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
Deg
rees
C
Imaginary deception – Imaginary deception – decline in ice surface in the Arctic from Septemberdecline in ice surface in the Arctic from September 1979 1979 through through
September 2September 2003003 is result of not a secular trend,. is result of not a secular trend,...
Source: Impacts of Warming Arctic, p. 25.
©ИЭА
……but of 30 year-long upward trend but of 30 year-long upward trend in the natural 60 year-long temperature variability cycle.in the natural 60 year-long temperature variability cycle.
Temperature anomalies for the Arctic,Temperature anomalies for the Arctic, 11YMA, 111YMA, 1889090−200−20000
Source: Hadley Centre.
Arctic
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
De
gre
es
C
©ИЭА
Greenland does NOT experience secular Global WarmingGreenland does NOT experience secular Global Warmingsince temperature there today is still lower since temperature there today is still lower
than it was 60 years ago.than it was 60 years ago. Temperature anomalies for the Greenland,Temperature anomalies for the Greenland, 11YMA, 111YMA, 1888080−200−20044
Source: Hadley Centre.
Central Greenland
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
1880
1883
1886
1889
1892
1895
1898
1901
1904
1907
1910
1913
1916
1919
1922
1925
1928
1931
1934
1937
1940
1943
1946
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Deg
rees
C
Rapley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
NO Warming in Antarctic – NO Warming in Antarctic – for the most of it there is NO ice volume decrease.for the most of it there is NO ice volume decrease.
On the contrary, there is NET ice accumulation there. On the contrary, there is NET ice accumulation there.
Rapley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
Warming in Antarctic is limited Warming in Antarctic is limited to only Antarctic peninsulato only Antarctic peninsula,, that contains only 0,5% of total Antarctic ice, that contains only 0,5% of total Antarctic ice,
the full melting of which over centuriesthe full melting of which over centuriescan potentially contribute to maximumcan potentially contribute to maximum 0,3 m SLE. It is clearly associated 0,3 m SLE. It is clearly associated
not with air warming, but with ocean current.not with air warming, but with ocean current.
Rapley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
No acceleration in Sea level Rise – No acceleration in Sea level Rise – WITH anthropogenic COWITH anthropogenic CO22 emissions emissions
it rises 10 times slower than WITHOUT it.it rises 10 times slower than WITHOUT it.
Nicholls
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
No Global Flood – No Global Flood – according to the most dangerous scenariosaccording to the most dangerous scenarios
sea level rise will be limited to 30−50 csea level rise will be limited to 30−50 cмм by by 2100.2100.
©ИЭА
NO Kilimanjaro ice cap melting NO Kilimanjaro ice cap melting due to Global Warming,..due to Global Warming,..
©ИЭА
……since local temperature was falling over last 40 yearssince local temperature was falling over last 40 years..Temperature in Tanzania and Kenya highlandsTemperature in Tanzania and Kenya highlands, 1961-1995, 1961-1995
Source: GISS, NASA.
17,3
17,4
17,5
17,6
17,7
17,8
17,9
18,0
18,1
18,2
18,3
18,4
18,5
18,61
96
11
96
21
96
31
96
41
96
51
96
6
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
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19
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19
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19
89
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19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
De
gre
es
C
Wood
Theoretically speaking, over long-run Theoretically speaking, over long-run Gulf Stream may shut down..Gulf Stream may shut down....
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
Wood
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
……but certainly not in the 21but certainly not in the 21stst century. century.And there is NO detectable THC weakening yet.And there is NO detectable THC weakening yet.
Turley
No acidification of oceanNo acidification of ocean
that is principally different from the trend observed during that is principally different from the trend observed during transition from glacial period to pre-industrial one transition from glacial period to pre-industrial one
when there was NO anthropogenic COwhen there was NO anthropogenic CO22 emissions. emissions.
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
©ИЭА
Growth of prosperityGrowth of prosperityis the most effective defense against natural hazardsis the most effective defense against natural hazards..
Fatalities from natural hazards and GDP per capita in the USA,Fatalities from natural hazards and GDP per capita in the USA, 1950-2003 1950-2003
Source: US National Statistics.
©ИЭА
It is especially true in poor countriesIt is especially true in poor countrieswhere it saves literally millions of liveswhere it saves literally millions of lives. .
GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries,GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries, 19 198585--19961996
y = 263,84x-0,65
R2 = 0,25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
GDP per capita, thousands of 1999 PPP $
Nu
mb
er o
f fat
aliti
es p
er 1
mln
of p
op
ula
tion
Source: United Nations.
©ИЭА
СОСО22 emissions are not air pollutant emissions.emissions are not air pollutant emissions.They are moving in different directions. They are moving in different directions.
CCОО22 and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), 19197171-200-20011
Source: Statistical Abstract of the USA 2003.
Edmonds
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
Fight against non-existent threat Fight against non-existent threat could cost world economy just peanutscould cost world economy just peanuts!!
Either US$ Either US$ 12−27 12−27 trlntrln...,.,
Metz
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
……or US$ or US$ 17−47 17−47 trlntrln...,.,
©ИЭАSource: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.119.
……or up to US$or up to US$ 1800 1800 trlntrln..Shall we pay?Shall we pay?