Applying risk assessment techniques to salmon management, with implications for factoring in climate...
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Applying risk assessment techniques to salmon management, with implications for factoring in climate effects Thomas Leschine Patrick Marchman February 22, 2005
Applying risk assessment techniques to salmon management, with implications for factoring in climate effects Thomas Leschine Patrick Marchman February
Applying risk assessment techniques to salmon management, with
implications for factoring in climate effects Thomas Leschine
Patrick Marchman February 22, 2005
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Cartoon Slide here
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Risk Definitions Risk: The probability of harm coming to an
individual or a population as a result of exposure to a substance
or situation Risk Assessment: The use of research to determine the
risk associated with a specific substance or situation
[Characterized by Alvin Weinberg as "Trans-Science"] Risk
Management: The public process of deciding what to do where risk
has been determined to exist
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Human Health Risk Assessment (per U.S. EPA)
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Risk Perception & Communication Risk Perception: The
intuitive judgments people make about risk, upon which they rely to
guide their daily lives "People do not respond to risks 'as they
should' ". [William Ruckleshaus, Administrator, U.S. EPA,
mid-1980s.] Risk Communication: Narrowly, "any purposeful exchange
of scientific information between interested parties regarding
health or environmental risks." Broadly, "any public or private
communication that informs individuals about the existence, nature,
form, severity, or acceptability of risks. [S. Krimsky and A.
Plough, "The Meanings of Risk Communication", Environmental Hazards
(1988)]
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Risk Amplification at Work (Climate change arena may suffer
effects of risk attenuation, also addressable via risk
communication)
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Organizational & Institutional Perspectives on Risk
"Programmatic Risk": The likelihood that unforeseen costs,
technological, political, regulatory or other limitations or
constraints will impede an organization's schedules or goals being
met. ["Risk" viewed from inside the organization looking out.]
"Institutional Risk/Performance Assessment": The likelihood that
organizational and institutional proclivities (a.k.a. "government
failure") will lead to erosion of organizational attention to (or
ability to perform) task, to the point where commitments and
responsibilities no longer being met. ["Risk" viewed from outside
the organization looking in.]
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Conceptual Model of Vulnerability (including Institutional
Risk) SOCIETY- ENVIRONMEN T REMEDY Vulnerability: How could the
remedy fail due to threats from the social environmental system?
HAZARD Risk: What might be the harm done to society and the
environment given failure? HARM THREAT High reliability
institutional management Doug Mercer, UW Dept. of Geography
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Ecological Risk Assessment Ecological risk assessment is a
process used to systematically evaluate and organize data,
information, assumptions, and uncertainties to help understand and
predict the relationship between stressors and ecological effects
in a way that is useful for environmental decision making (EPA,
1998) Stressors Biological, chemical, physical, or a combination of
these Land-use change Weather or climatic forcing Snowmelt largely
determines hydrology of Northwest rivers; effects extremely
sensitive to both land cover and climate change (Marks et al,
1998).
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Risks to Salmon Survival Associated With Rain-on-Snow Events
Cleared forest sites exposed to wind experience greatest snow loss
(Marks et al. 1998) Sub-basins w/ large cleared areas in transient
snow zone w/ north aspect, coupled w/ high stream gradient and
other soil, geol., human disturbance conditions rated least
favorable to salmon survival (Umpqua and Rogue Basins; late 90s
studies by C. Berman and others at U.S. EPA, Region 10)
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Structure of an Ecological Risk Assessment (I) Guidelines for
Ecological Risk Assessment, U.S. EPA, 1998
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Structure of a Ecological Risk Assessment (II) Guidelines for
Ecological Risk Assessment, U.S. EPA, 1998
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Salmon extinction risk assessment Approach being developed at
NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center Mix of qualitative and
quantitative assessments, summarized in risk matrices Circumscribed
by need to define species, or distinct population segments thereof,
for determination of threatened or endangered status under ESA.
Multiple factors considered, including abundance; trends,
productivity and variability; genetic integrity. Changes in
management, climate variation, ecological and genetic effects of
hatcheries, changes in life history traits, selective effects of
harvest, trends in freshwater habitat capacity also taken into
account. Wainwright and Kope 1999
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Tools Visual tools that are spatial, and possibly interactive,
aid in decision support and decision structuring Ideally, vary
information format and content by audience (general public,
scientists, policy analysts, elected officials), possibly query
based
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The Lower Cedar River Watershed: Land Use Changes and Risk
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Wissmar et al, 1998
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Relative Risk Model 1990s saw several moves towards
landscape-scale risk assessment. First proposed by Landis &
Wiegers (1997); used in several studies on watersheds including
Squalicum (Washington), Codorus (Ohio), and Willamette (Oregon).
Attempts to broaden ecological risk assessments utility Traditional
stressor-receptor-response model difficult to scale upwards
(multiple kinds of risk hard to reconcile). Assigning ranks based
on geographic areas averages out specific relationships to give a
broader view.
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Impacts of Land Use Changes on Salmonid Habitat Quality in the
Lower Cedar River Watershed: Regional Risk Assessment and Policy
Choices Goal of thesis: Use regional risk model to characterize
risks of specific land use changes to salmon habitat.
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Overall Approach Apply relative risk model (RRM) to a risk
assessment on salmon survival given land use patterns in the lower
Cedar River watershed. Main stressors having to do with
urbanization (modified runoff caused by impervious surfaces and
presence of roads). Includes sensitivity analysis. Deals with
non-hatchery salmon survival only. Management and policy options
restricted to those locally- implementable only. Tools restricted
to more common software (GIS, Excel) Does not currently include
climate impacts, but could.
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King County GIS (iMap), 2003 I II III IV V Landsburg Dam Cedar
River VI
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Methods Obtained land cover data from King County
publicly-available GIS sources (topography, road density, land
use). Divided study area into 6 risk regions (by topography,
similar land use types, and political boundaries). Chose ecological
endpoints (habitat quality, etc). Identified stressors and stressor
sources (road density). Relative risk model proper Assigned ranks
to risk regions (stressor sources, habitat, endpoints) Filter
design (relationships between risk components) Combined ranks and
filters
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Translation into Vocabulary of Risk Literature suggests
presence of a) dense road concentration and b) high percentage of
impervious surfaces likely to be associated with degraded salmon
habitattherefore a measure of relative risk. In areas of low road
density but patchy vegetation, salmon habitat still vulnerable to
degradation (Timm et al 2003). However, even token vegetation
buffers and buffer connectivity with other areas of vegetation
between densest impervious surface concentrations and streams may
decrease probability of habitat becoming substantially degraded.
Would be interesting to include population density as another
stressor. Would areas of higher population density relative to road
density (parts of Renton) be less likely to be near degraded salmon
habitat than areas of lower population density, traditional
suburban development? Empirical studies necessary for verification
(Timm et al. 2003)
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Conclusions Concentrations of higher road density and
impervious surfaces are a good predictor of runoff pattern changes
that affect river hydrology. Salmon habitat in closest proximity to
areas of greatest runoff disturbance is likely to be degraded. No
surprises here, but what are the implications? Population growth
over the next several decades will lead to growth in impervious
surface area and road density, likely leading to intensified
degrading of salmon habitat. Local governments can substantially
reduce negative impacts by: Providing incentives for use of more
permeable concrete and asphalt Encouraging (and removing zoning
impediments to) denser patterns of suburban development. Vegetation
connectivity (especially native) and stream buffers does much to
normalize runoff from urbanized areas. RRM under development could
be used to examine scenarios of climate forcing in addition to
land-use change
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Where does climate change fit in? Specific effects of climate
change can be incorporated into existing model. Examples: changes
in river flow from changes in snowpack, projected changes in water
availablity due to increased water consumption Effects of land use
changes both amplify and are amplified by climate change. Increases
in impermeable surfaces likely to have even greater impacts on
salmon under scenarios of climate change.
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Toward Integrated Assessment of Risks and Vulnerabilities
Associated with the Combined Effects of Land Use and Climate
Change
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Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply) for
Middle-of-the-Road Climate Change Scenarios Source: Hamlet et al.,
CIG Workshop 2/05
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Define Problem Select Method Test Method/Sensitivity Select
Scenarios Assess Biological Impacts Assess Socio-Economic Impacts
Assess Autonomous Adjustments Evaluate Adaptation Strategies Parry
& Carter Possible Cedar River Analogue Ex. Rise in sea
levelMore fall precip., less winter snowpack, earlier spring runoff
Ex. Model impact of climatic variation on coastal cities Model
impacts of altered flows below Landsburg Dam Qualitative pilot
study of flooding effects on buildings Study effects on downstream
habitat wetting, flooding Projections about sea level +/- climate
change Range of scenarios, rain v. snow, rain- on-snow incidence,
snowmelt timing Quantitative measures of impact from flooding on
ecology, society, economy Quantitative/qualitative measures of
impact on habitat areas below Landsburg Automatic adujstments, such
as deciding to wear rain boots instead of sandals during floods
Responses that require deliberate policy decisions, such as
restoring wetlands buffer between coast & settlements Existing
and new development & habitat restoration respond to altered
threats, opportunities Analytic-deliberative dialogue w/
regulators, stakeholders over alt. CAO packages, restoration
strategies, flow mgt. Adapted from Parry and Carter, Climate Impact
and Adaptation Assessment, (1998)
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Analytic Deliberative Dialogue: Democratizing Risk Analysis
National Research Council. (1996). Understanding Risk: Informing
Decisions in a Democratic Society. Washington, D.C.: National
Academy Press. getting the right science getting the science right,
getting the right participation getting the participation right
developing an accurate, balanced and informative synthesis Drew,
AAAS 2004
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Framing and Informing Research Community StakeholdersManagers
INFORMING FRAMING INFORMING
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Grand Conclusions Combined effects of climate and land use
change likely important determinants of future in-stream salmon
habitat suitability Eco risk approaches (esp. RRM and NOAA
extinction risk model) well suited to framing examination of these
effects IPCC integrated assessment framework provides a
complementary and useful umbrella framework Use of
analytic-deliberative process of NRC for framing and informing
likely makes assessments more useful to decision makers, and may
increase chances vulnerabilities recognized and risks
addressed.