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Relevant • Independent • Objective
CERI Crude Oil Report Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill
About CERI Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, registered charitable organization specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].
Reduction in present value of net revenues from a project. When considering these impacts, it is important to separate out the revenues collected to pay for operating costs. Those will tend to balance out over time. However, the net profit from a project can be delayed. Such a delay means the revenue stream collected by a company has a lower present value.
Delayed economic impacts from the project under
consideration - additional jobs, provincial taxes, GDP – again, these impacts do not disappear. They are delayed, and it is the time value of money that creates the cost associated with changing the timeline of a project as delayed future benefits in the same dollar amount are less valuable to society.
Aside from the economic costs, there are some specific financial expenses which are difficult to quantify. These include the risk associated with stock market valuations and legal costs associated with policy debates that move toward a provincial or federal court. The extent of these costs can vary widely but are a consideration by a firm as it looks to pursue a project. Let us consider the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project to illustrate the framework. We know that there is a debate underway regarding the policy implications of this project. The principle argument is the jurisdictional authority of a provincial government (in this case BC) versus the federal government. In the past, jurisdictional concerns have often been resolved through negotiations. In the case of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, that does not seem to be a realistic option. As such, a reference to the Supreme Court on jurisdictional authority appears to be the path which is being followed. Moreover, given that there are other matters of overlapping jurisdiction such as in health care and environment, such a reference would provide clarity to how the Canadian Federation is to function in the future.
Policy Debates and Business Timelines Allan Fogwill Concerns regarding the balance of economic and environmental objectives continue to be part of the policy debate in Canada. We see concerns raised by Indigenous Peoples concerning the Site C hydroelectric facility in BC and similarly with the Muskrat Falls project in Labrador. We have seen the delay or cancellation of natural gas electricity generation projects in Ontario due to concerns from local citizens, and we have seen delays and regulatory changes associated with oil and natural gas pipelines across the country. These concerns create delays in the timeline for various projects. While businesses or proponents indicate that these delays cost money, it is not clear how they determine the cost of these delays. CERI suggests that if we want to understand the economic impacts of delays we need to have a common framework for assessing it. Otherwise, the estimates put forward can be countered with alternative numbers that can vary significantly. Agreeing on the facts is the first step in attempting to reach consensus on issues of concern. A delay in a project has three overall economic impacts that can be supported in the academic literature. These include: Additional interest charges on the overall upfront
costs of the project. Normally when firms determine the cost of the project, they estimate how long it will take to pay back those costs either to investors (if internally financed) or financial institutions. A one-year delay means more interest on the same money that had been borrowed.
April 2018
CERI Crude Oil Report
CERI Crude Oil Report
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So, let's return to the Trans Mountain case as an example of the costs of project delays. The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project is an expansion of an existing oil pipeline from 300,000 barrels per day to 890,000 barrels per day (b/d). As shown on the map, the route starts in Edmonton and ends in Vancouver. From that point, oil is placed onto ocean-going tankers and can be sold to markets in Asia and North America. The major policy concern is the risk of oil spills in the coastal waters around BC. CERI collected information on the project from Kinder Morgan’s regulatory filings.1 This information can be considered credible as the company must attest to it in hearings in front of an adjudicator (NEB) and to which the company and management can be held accountable for its accuracy. The capital cost of the project is listed as CAD$5.5 billion to be spent over seven years (2012-2018). When it was adjusted for inflation and brought into constant 2012 dollars, the cost is CAD$4.9 billion.
As we noted earlier, the cost of the delay is the additional carrying cost of the project. If the project is delayed one year, for example, the net capital costs will have to fund an additional year. Think of it as an additional set of mortgage payments when you delay paying off your home mortgage by one year. A key assumption is what interest rate you use. Standard practice is to use the weighted cost of capital which is a combination of the return to debt holders and a return to equity investors. Ten percent (10%) is the standard rate used most often. Using this rate gives us the cost of a 1-year delay in the project of CAD$490 million (constant 2012 dollars). If the pipeline is not in operation, it does not generate revenues. It also does not incur operating costs except for ongoing funding of the internal operations and project management. These are difficult to estimate. As such, it is the net revenues which would be a cost factor of a delay.
Source: https://nativesolidarity.org/master-catalog/coast-salish-tribes-oppose-the-transmountain-pipeline
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Some Trans Mountain shippers contract for firm pipeline commitments and others for intermittent or spot service. Of the 590,000 b/d new capacity, most is committed to firm contracts with 180,000 b/d assigned to the spot market. “Annual revenues associated with these contracts were estimated by the Conference Board to be $944 million based on the projected capital costs of the Project and the toll structure that would be applied. This revenue estimate only includes the fixed component of the toll.”2 However, that includes the full pipeline and not just the expansion. The existing pipeline generates CAD$300 million annually, which is ongoing. Therefore, the total incremental revenue lost from a delay is CAD$644 million. That fixed component for firm shippers would be the all-in costs of the pipeline operations. That said, the net revenues would approximate the return on equity (ROE) which can vary. If we assume an ROE of 15%, that means the net revenue would be CAD$96.6 million per year. It gets complicated when the intermittent shipping annual revenue of $191 million3 is considered. Often firms include a smaller portion of these revenues toward fixed costs. If we assumed that 50% of these revenues are net of cost, then the lost annual net revenue is $95.5 million. The final element of the cost of a delay is the delay in a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution of the project to the provincial and national economies. Again, it is important to note that a delay only means that the benefits happen later. The cost is losing those benefits for one year, in this example. The Conference Board of Canada in their assessment determined an annual GDP benefit of CAD$693.1 million.4 Here we would have to consider that a social discount rate is more appropriate, as our society takes a longer view of costs and benefits compared to financial markets and companies. If we assume a discount rate of 5%, we get the cost of a one-year delay in this project of CAD$34.7 million. Overall, we see that policy debates that impact business timetables have an impact on the firm and the economy. In this case, for the Kinder Morgan expansion project, we see the cost of a one-year delay as CAD$490 million plus
$96.6 million plus $95.5 million plus $34.7 million for a total of CAD$716.8 million. So, during a policy debate, the delay of this pipeline being constructed for one year is more than CAD$700 million. This number does not take into consideration provincial, and federal taxes which would be paid if the pipeline was operational or the value people place on additional employment. This is but one example. Similar calculations can be done using any major project for which delays in the process occur. It is, therefore, important that when decision makers consider these debates and listen to the concerns of stakeholders and project proponents that a similar calculus occur. Are we done with this example? No. In the case of our oil supply system, the market dynamics are complicated. One of the challenges is the price discount by which Canadian producers sell their product to customers. Normally the price discount between Canadian crude and the West Texas Intermediate price is in the CAD$15 range. This goes higher and lower depending on the availability of transport capacity and the quality of the crude exports. For instance, since December 2017, the differential was in the rage of US$15-30 (CAD$20-40). At the same time, Kinder Morgan’s existing pipeline was oversubscribed in January by 35% and in February by 32%,5 while the Keystone pipeline was full in 2017 except for November.6 In 2017, CERI analyzed how that differential might affect the economic contribution to Canada of crude oil exports. Our rule of thumb is that for every CAD$1 per barrel of crude change in the annual average differential, the economic contribution to Canada changes by CAD$1 billion. So, as we consider the policy implications of whether additional crude oil pipelines are in the national or provincial interest, we should also be aware that additional capacity improves the economic contribution of these activities to the country. It cannot be stated that additional capacity of a pipeline will result in reducing the crude price discount experienced by Canadian producers. However, it is another consideration when determining the scope and timeliness of resolving our policy debates in Canada.
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Endnotes 1 Kinder Morgan’s application to the NEB for the project, specifically Volumes 1, 2 and 4. The documents available include all the necessary information. Two studies that made Appendices A and B in Vol. 2 of the Application are used: IHS Global Canada Ltd. “Trans Mountain Expansion Project Direct Written Evidence of Steven J. Kelly” and Conference Board of Canada report “The Trans Mountain Expansion Project: Understanding the Economic Benefits for Canada and its Regions.” 2 “The variable component is primarily based on the electricity costs associated with shipping through the pipeline and is passed directly through to shippers. As such, the variable component would not have an impact on the labour or material inputs that the pipeline would use, or on the profits that it generates, and is not included when estimating the economic effects.” 3 Conference Board of Canada estimate, in TMEP Application. 4 ibid. 5 https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/houston/canadas-trans-mountain-crude-pipeline-oversubscribed-21891778; https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/houston/canadas-trans-mountain-crude-pipeline-oversubscribed-21167490 6 https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/pplnprtl/pplnprfls/crdl/kstn-eng.html
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Relevant • Independent • Objective
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World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)
OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)
2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18
World Demand 95.0 96.2 97.8 99.3 95.4 95.7 96.8 96.8 96.5 98.0 98.3 98.4 98.0 99.0 99.7 100.4
OECD 46.4 46.9 47.4 47.7 46.8 46.1 47.3 47.4 47.0 47.0 47.6 47.9 47.3 47.1 47.9 48.3
non-OECD 48.6 49.3 50.4 51.6 48.6 49.6 49.4 49.4 49.6 50.9 50.7 50.5 50.7 51.8 51.9 52.1
World Supply 96.6 97.0 97.4 99.8 96.6 96.1 96.9 98.2 96.6 96.9 97.8 98.1 98.7 99.4 100.3 101.0
Non-OPEC 58.1 57.4 58.1 59.9 57.7 56.7 57.2 57.9 57.7 57.7 58.3 58.9 59.0 59.6 60.1 60.9
OPEC NGLs 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0
OPEC Crude 27.7 28.4 27.9 -4.5 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.4 32.1 32.3 32.7 32.3 32.8 32.9 33.2 33.1
Supply - Demand1 1.6 0.8 -0.4 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 1.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.7
OECD
Stocks (MMbbls) 3015 3046 3052 3060 2985 3030 3016 2970 2853 2882 2900 2925
Days Cover 64 66 65 65 64 64 63 62 60 61 61 61
Sustainable
Capacity Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
Saudi Arabia 12.20 9.97 9.98 9.98 2.23 2.22 2.22
Iran 3.75 3.80 3.80 3.82 -0.05 -0.05 -0.07
UAE 3.14 2.87 2.85 2.80 0.27 0.29 0.34
Kuwait 2.93 2.70 2.70 2.70 0.23 0.23 0.23
Qatar 0.67 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.06 0.05 0.07
Angola 1.78 1.59 1.57 1.57 0.19 0.21 0.21
Nigeria 1.70 1.61 1.68 1.70 0.09 0.02 0.00
Libya 0.65 1.00 1.00 1.02 -0.35 -0.35 -0.37
Algeria 1.13 1.04 1.02 1.04 0.09 0.11 0.09
Equatorial Guinea 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.01 0.01 0.01
Ecuador 0.56 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.04 0.04 0.05
Venezuela 2.20 1.61 1.61 1.55 0.59 0.59 0.65
Gabon 0.23 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.03 0.02 0.03
OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.08 27.65 27.69 27.62 3.43 3.39 3.46
Iraq1 4.66 4.49 4.48 4.48 0.17 0.18 0.18
Total OPEC 35.60 32.14 32.17 32.10 3.46 3.43 3.50
Production Spare Capacity vs Production
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Data Appendix
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)
A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)
Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-
tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip
Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward
prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78
2016 42.28 42.15 42.01 44.80 -0.98
2017 50.29 50.27 50.17 51.80 -0.44
1Q 2017 52.90 52.44 52.19 54.65 -0.80
2Q 2017 49.45 49.76 50.08 51.66 -0.44
3Q 2017 45.89 46.22 46.87 48.05 -0.20
4Q 2017 52.90 52.67 51.53 52.86 -0.33
1Q 2018 61.16 60.98 60.80 61.15 0.06
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.6% 16.3% 16.5% 11.9%
Apr-17 47.34 48.11 51.12 52.81 -0.50
May-17 50.27 51.04 50.72 52.33 -0.46
Jun-17 50.73 50.14 48.40 49.84 -0.35
Jul-17 43.23 44.06 47.11 48.32 -0.23
Aug-17 46.79 46.77 45.12 46.35 -0.21
Sep-17 47.64 47.84 48.40 49.46 -0.15
Oct-17 50.41 49.93 48.34 49.99 -0.46
Nov-17 51.47 51.60 51.17 52.44 -0.31
Dec-17 56.83 56.49 55.10 56.14 -0.21
Jan-18 58.09 57.57 57.42 58.07 -0.05
Feb-18 63.49 63.60 61.97 62.41 0.03
Mar-18 61.90 61.75 63.01 62.96 0.20
Apr-18 63.40 62.60 61.97 62.11 0.07
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 33.9% 30.1% 21.2% 17.6%
NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5
2016 138.4 138.7 136.9 133.2 -1.9 133.8 133.8 132.1 141.7 -1.6
2017 167.1 165.3 161.4 154.8 -0.2 166.7 166.5 164.0 170.7 -0.6
1Q 2017 157.3 157.0 155.9 168.2 -8.6 164.6 165.0 164.9 172.9 -1.4
2Q 2017 162.0 162.6 163.0 155.5 -0.5 153.1 153.9 154.7 162.1 -0.6
3Q 2017 178.7 170.2 157.2 137.2 5.1 162.9 159.4 152.8 159.6 -0.5
4Q 2017 170.5 171.5 169.5 158.3 3.2 186.3 187.6 183.7 188.1 0.2
1Q 2018 182.2 183.4 178.4 187.3 -6.6 202.0 203.1 198.9 202.1 0.4
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.8% 16.9% 14.4% 11.4% 22.7% 23.1% 20.6% 16.9%
Apr-17 170.0 168.4 162.9 157.3 -1.6 157.4 155.8 153.6 161.1 -0.7
May-17 154.8 156.3 168.1 160.0 -0.1 150.4 151.6 159.0 166.4 -0.7
Jun-17 161.2 163.1 158.1 149.2 0.3 151.5 154.2 151.4 158.8 -0.6
Jul-17 151.5 149.5 148.2 132.1 0.8 147.6 145.2 142.6 150.4 -0.8
Aug-17 170.6 167.6 157.1 137.2 2.4 165.2 163.2 152.6 159.6 -0.5
Sep-17 214.0 193.6 166.3 142.2 12.0 175.8 169.9 163.1 168.9 -0.1
Oct-17 160.7 163.1 166.3 150.5 5.5 181.2 183.0 179.1 182.5 0.9
Nov-17 178.0 177.1 165.2 154.7 2.8 188.5 187.7 180.2 185.1 0.1
Dec-17 172.8 174.4 177.1 169.8 1.3 189.3 192.2 191.8 196.8 -0.3
Jan-18 179.9 179.5 172.1 180.7 -1.2 207.6 205.6 194.9 198.2 0.0
Feb-18 190.8 191.3 185.9 194.2 -0.7 206.9 208.2 207.8 209.7 0.9
Mar-18 175.8 179.6 177.3 186.9 -18.1 191.4 195.4 194.0 198.3 0.3
Apr-18 201.8 201.5 194.9 188.1 -1.1 202.8 202.2 193.2 199.2 -0.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 18.7% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% 28.8% 29.7% 25.8% 23.6%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 12
A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 3. As of August 2016, Western
Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.
Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas
2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24
2016 40.89 41.32 41.89 43.69 43.97 42.09 33.96 39.22 38.36 42.31 43.95 41.05
2017 52.68 53.20 53.40 54.25 54.57 53.35 47.69 51.68 50.07 54.67 54.64 49.07
4Q 2016 47.83 48.33 48.81 49.48 49.41 48.12 42.53 46.70 45.45 49.79 49.98 45.20
1Q 2017 52.20 53.11 53.61 53.75 53.74 52.34 45.99 51.40 48.52 54.44 54.04 50.06
2Q 2017 48.72 49.89 49.96 49.82 49.80 48.70 44.60 47.94 46.24 51.29 50.24 45.52
3Q 2017 50.01 50.45 50.65 52.08 52.69 51.34 45.97 49.04 47.99 52.96 52.30 46.36
4Q 2017 59.77 59.35 59.37 61.35 62.04 61.03 54.20 58.34 57.55 60.00 61.97 54.33
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 25.0% 22.8% 21.6% 24.0% 25.6% 26.8% 27.4% 24.9% 26.6% 20.5% 24.0% 20.2%
Feb-17 53.63 54.41 55.12 55.06 55.10 53.67 47.03 52.85 50.08 56.09 55.24 51.19
Mar-17 50.68 51.21 51.71 51.60 51.50 49.94 44.14 49.87 46.83 52.26 51.91 48.35
Apr-17 51.64 52.31 52.82 52.59 52.57 51.55 46.15 50.81 48.70 53.81 53.02 47.95
May-17 49.30 50.97 50.57 50.45 50.43 49.04 45.16 48.65 46.91 51.85 50.77 45.96
Jun-17 45.21 46.38 46.50 46.42 46.40 45.52 42.49 44.37 43.11 48.21 46.92 42.65
Jul-17 47.12 47.59 47.63 48.51 48.63 47.82 43.41 46.19 45.21 50.75 48.66 43.96
Aug-17 49.63 50.24 50.37 51.66 52.30 51.30 45.38 48.70 47.45 52.92 51.69 45.91
Sep-17 53.29 53.51 53.95 56.07 57.15 54.89 49.13 52.23 51.30 55.20 56.55 49.20
Oct-17 55.73 55.63 55.63 57.28 57.85 56.81 50.70 54.50 53.77 56.08 57.97 50.55
Nov-17 61.08 60.81 60.84 62.63 63.28 62.53 55.86 59.58 59.23 61.35 63.29 55.50
Dec-17 62.50 61.61 61.63 64.14 64.98 63.75 56.04 60.94 59.66 62.57 64.64 56.95
Jan-18 67.42 66.15 66.42 69.13 69.99 68.69 59.14 65.74 63.53 67.57 69.92 60.91
Feb-18 64.03 62.69 63.00 65.16 65.81 63.01 57.68 62.14 60.28 64.83 66.02 58.15
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.4% 15.2% 14.3% 18.3% 19.4% 17.4% 22.6% 17.6% 20.4% 15.6% 19.5% 13.6%
United States Canada Light vs. Heavy
ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS
Okla.
Sw.
Kans.
Sw.
Mich.
So.
Wyo.
Sw.
CDN
Sweet2CDN
Heavy3
2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71
2016 33.46 43.80 35.82 41.08 36.08 34.83 41.08 40.08 33.08 40.50 39.44 28.85
2017 44.08 55.37 47.12 48.40 43.40 42.50 48.40 47.48 40.40 48.22 48.26 39.25
4Q 2016 39.14 49.81 41.23 46.08 41.08 39.83 46.08 45.08 38.08 45.83 45.53 34.29
1Q 2017 43.48 53.40 45.50 48.67 43.67 42.42 48.67 47.67 40.67 48.44 48.95 38.22
2Q 2017 44.34 49.43 42.43 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.83 36.50 44.64 45.78 42.43
3Q 2017 41.90 54.02 45.38 46.17 41.17 41.33 46.17 45.08 38.17 45.81 45.57 37.70
4Q 2017 46.58 64.63 55.15 54.25 49.25 48.00 54.25 53.33 46.25 54.01 52.65 38.35
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.0% 29.8% 33.8% 17.7% 19.9% 20.5% 17.7% 18.3% 21.4% 17.8% 15.6% 11.9%
Feb-17 46.15 54.54 46.70 50.00 45.00 43.75 50.00 48.75 42.00 49.58 50.33 39.53
Mar-17 46.15 52.06 44.35 47.00 42.00 40.75 47.00 46.00 39.00 46.85 47.03 36.34
Apr-17 45.79 49.79 43.15 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 46.61 40.81
May-17 43.22 51.01 43.80 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 46.05 48.43 51.35
Jun-17 44.02 47.50 40.35 41.50 36.50 35.25 41.50 41.50 33.50 42.29 42.20 34.91
Jul-17 42.79 51.92 44.00 46.25 41.25 44.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 45.96 44.10 36.96
Aug-17 41.46 52.25 43.25 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 42.75 36.00 43.54 45.01 37.95
Sep-17 41.46 57.88 48.90 48.25 43.25 42.25 48.25 47.25 40.25 47.92 47.63 38.18
Oct-17 43.11 60.36 51.70 50.25 45.25 44.00 50.25 49.50 42.25 50.15 50.34 39.87
Nov-17 47.18 65.66 55.90 55.50 50.50 49.25 55.50 54.50 47.50 55.20 55.17 41.47
Dec-17 49.44 67.88 57.85 57.00 52.00 50.75 57.00 56.00 49.00 56.67 52.41 33.74
Jan-18 55.67 73.10 62.15 62.75 57.75 56.50 62.75 61.75 54.75 62.39 56.41 37.74
Feb-18 47.18 69.26 58.90 60.00 55.00 53.75 60.00 59.00 52.00 59.80 56.21 35.37
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.2% 27.0% 26.1% 20.0% 22.2% 22.9% 20.0% 21.0% 23.8% 20.6% 11.7% -10.5%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 13
A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny
Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Notes: 1. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 2. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour
Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff.
CDN
Sweet1CDN
Heavy2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.
2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.77 6.37 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25
2016 40.89 38.36 2.52 42.31 36.98 5.34 39.44 28.85 10.59 34.83 36.08 -1.25
2017 52.68 51.04 1.63 54.67 47.73 6.94 48.26 39.25 9.01 42.50 43.40 -0.90
4Q 2016 47.83 45.64 2.19 49.79 43.36 6.43 45.53 34.29 11.24 39.83 41.08 -1.25
1Q 2017 52.20 50.46 1.74 54.44 45.42 9.03 48.95 38.22 10.74 42.42 43.67 -1.25
2Q 2017 48.72 47.18 1.54 51.29 44.33 6.96 45.78 42.43 3.35 38.25 39.50 -1.25
3Q 2017 50.01 48.70 1.32 52.96 47.24 5.71 45.57 37.70 7.87 41.33 41.17 0.17
4Q 2017 59.77 57.83 1.94 60.00 53.93 6.07 52.65 38.35 14.30 48.00 49.25 -1.25
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 25.0% 26.7% 20.5% 24.4% 15.6% 11.9% 20.5% 19.9%
Feb-17 53.63 51.97 1.66 56.09 46.55 9.54 50.33 39.53 10.79 43.75 45.00 -1.25
Mar-17 50.68 48.86 1.82 52.26 43.12 9.14 47.03 36.34 10.69 40.75 42.00 -1.25
Apr-17 51.64 49.97 1.67 53.81 44.90 8.91 46.61 40.81 5.80 39.50 40.75 -1.25
May-17 49.30 47.92 1.38 51.85 45.60 6.25 48.43 51.35 -2.92 40.00 41.25 -1.25
Jun-17 45.21 43.64 1.57 48.21 42.50 5.71 42.20 34.91 7.29 35.25 36.50 -1.25
Jul-17 47.12 45.76 1.36 50.75 45.15 5.60 44.10 36.96 7.14 44.00 41.25 2.75
Aug-17 49.63 48.55 1.08 52.92 46.91 6.01 45.01 37.95 7.06 37.75 39.00 -1.25
Sep-17 53.29 51.78 1.51 55.20 49.67 5.53 47.63 38.18 9.45 42.25 43.25 -1.00
Oct-17 55.73 53.99 1.74 56.08 50.26 5.82 50.34 39.87 10.47 44.00 45.25 -1.25
Nov-17 61.08 59.03 2.05 61.35 55.48 5.87 55.17 41.47 13.70 49.25 50.50 -1.25
Dec-17 62.50 60.47 2.03 62.57 56.04 6.53 52.41 33.74 18.67 50.75 52.00 -1.25
Jan-18 67.42 65.24 2.18 67.57 59.94 7.63 56.41 37.74 18.68 56.50 57.75 -1.25
Feb-18 64.03 61.60 2.43 64.83 56.69 8.14 56.21 35.37 20.84 53.75 55.00 -1.25
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.4% 18.5% 15.6% 21.8% 11.7% -10.5% 22.9% 22.2%
Spot Prices Differentials
WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket
2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16
2016 43.33 43.72 41.46 42.11 40.68 -1.44 0.82 0.17 1.59
2017 50.90 54.23 53.19 53.34 52.51 -3.95 -2.90 -3.05 -2.23
4Q 2016 49.23 49.35 48.27 47.99 47.59 3.55 4.63 4.91 5.32
1Q 2017 51.70 53.66 53.01 52.25 52.03 -4.21 -3.56 -2.80 -2.58
2Q 2017 48.11 49.58 49.71 48.46 48.59 -3.69 -3.82 -2.57 -2.71
3Q 2017 48.16 52.06 50.46 51.34 49.99 0.84 2.44 1.56 2.91
4Q 2017 55.35 61.35 59.34 61.03 59.43 -0.19 1.82 0.13 1.73
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.4% 24.3% 22.9% 27.2% 24.9%
Feb-17 53.40 55.06 54.41 53.67 53.37 -7.72 -7.07 -6.33 -6.03
Mar-17 49.58 51.60 51.21 49.94 50.32 -1.33 -0.94 0.33 -0.05
Apr-17 51.06 52.46 52.31 51.41 51.37 -1.73 -1.58 -0.68 -0.64
May-17 48.50 50.42 50.58 49.01 49.20 -7.19 -7.35 -5.78 -5.97
Jun-17 45.17 46.42 46.48 45.52 45.21 0.37 0.31 1.27 1.58
Jul-17 46.65 48.51 47.59 47.82 46.93 -0.87 0.05 -0.18 0.71
Aug-17 48.03 51.64 50.24 51.29 49.60 -1.23 0.17 -0.88 0.81
Sep-17 49.83 56.07 53.71 54.89 53.44 -4.60 -2.24 -3.42 -1.97
Oct-17 51.57 57.28 55.60 56.81 55.50 -0.45 1.23 0.02 1.33
Nov-17 56.54 62.63 60.81 62.53 60.74 -4.54 -2.72 -4.44 -2.65
Dec-17 57.94 64.14 61.61 63.75 62.06 -0.65 1.88 -0.26 1.43
Jan-18 63.70 69.13 66.15 68.69 66.85 -7.23 -4.25 -6.79 -4.95
Feb-18 62.15 65.16 62.69 63.01 63.48 -1.76 0.71 0.39 -0.08
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 16.4% 18.3% 15.2% 17.4% 18.9%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 14
A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)
A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)
Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status
Report.
Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes
Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3
2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55
2016 56.84 32.12 52.43 54.02 52.37 30.62 56.20 52.24 35.63
2017 68.09 46.25 65.59 66.37 64.60 45.53 68.01 65.73 49.97
4Q 2016 60.99 41.20 59.92 58.98 60.01 39.77 62.83 60.27 45.42
1Q 2017 65.10 44.58 63.18 63.48 63.31 43.24 67.71 64.85 49.04
2Q 2017 65.69 42.50 58.71 62.74 59.21 41.85 63.82 61.02 46.69
3Q 2017 69.74 45.40 66.61 65.49 63.39 45.78 66.52 64.27 48.45
4Q 2017 71.65 52.28 73.48 73.44 72.12 51.09 73.65 72.50 55.45
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.5% 26.9% 22.6% 24.5% 20.2% 28.5% 17.2% 20.3% 22.1%
Feb-17 65.04 45.94 65.58 66.04 65.20 44.45 69.90 66.76 49.87
Mar-17 63.91 42.42 60.75 60.60 61.09 41.16 64.28 62.94 46.38
Apr-17 69.66 43.68 63.27 65.91 62.88 42.99 67.66 64.68 48.11
May-17 66.12 42.98 59.04 62.86 59.80 41.88 64.40 61.19 46.76
Jun-17 61.83 41.01 54.46 60.04 55.65 40.90 59.78 57.54 45.33
Jul-17 65.79 43.89 60.07 60.78 59.09 43.52 61.76 61.05 46.32
Aug-17 70.77 44.85 66.44 65.64 62.25 45.40 67.51 63.51 47.84
Sep-17 72.51 47.56 73.33 70.04 68.89 48.44 70.43 68.49 51.37
Oct-17 69.29 48.32 69.53 66.56 68.65 48.79 70.04 68.61 52.56
Nov-17 73.70 54.14 73.92 73.35 74.13 53.27 75.59 73.14 57.59
Dec-17 71.95 54.39 76.99 80.40 73.59 51.21 75.32 75.75 56.20
Jan-18 78.46 56.92 82.70 85.60 78.94 54.41 78.61 81.70 58.85
Feb-18 75.18 54.15 78.48 82.80 72.45 52.04 77.02 77.95 56.56
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.6% 17.9% 19.7% 25.4% 11.1% 17.1% 10.2% 16.8% 13.4%
NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.
2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03
2016 139.08 128.35 135.14 133.18 124.92 131.75 145.38 138.67
2017 163.95 157.98 165.78 160.43 156.14 162.23 173.10 170.64
4Q 2016 153.93 147.70 155.47 145.73 143.47 152.23 151.77 160.83
1Q 2017 155.30 153.50 159.17 155.30 150.20 156.77 169.60 163.47
2Q 2017 153.20 143.63 150.57 152.40 140.57 147.53 171.40 154.87
3Q 2017 170.57 155.00 164.77 163.63 159.27 162.13 176.63 172.73
4Q 2017 176.73 179.77 188.63 170.37 174.53 182.47 174.77 191.50
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.8% 21.7% 21.3% 16.9% 21.7% 19.9% 15.2% 19.1%
Feb-17 154.70 156.20 162.40 154.30 154.70 160.80 175.60 167.00
Mar-17 149.20 149.20 152.80 152.30 144.50 150.20 172.00 156.30
Apr-17 161.10 152.30 158.60 162.10 151.00 155.80 177.70 163.90
May-17 154.00 145.40 151.40 151.90 141.20 148.20 174.60 154.70
Jun-17 144.50 133.20 141.70 143.20 129.50 138.60 161.90 146.00
Jul-17 156.20 142.30 152.10 151.80 141.70 148.60 166.90 157.00
Aug-17 168.80 151.90 163.10 163.80 156.10 160.10 180.70 169.70
Sep-17 186.70 170.80 179.10 175.30 180.00 177.70 182.30 191.50
Oct-17 171.50 170.70 179.90 165.20 165.90 175.60 176.10 186.30
Nov-17 183.00 182.30 191.60 175.70 176.00 185.10 183.60 197.50
Dec-17 175.70 186.30 194.40 170.20 181.70 186.70 164.60 190.70
Jan-18 189.90 201.70 207.40 185.70 195.20 199.60 194.40 205.60
Feb-18 181.70 185.30 193.70 176.50 184.90 189.50 187.70 196.30
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.5% 18.6% 19.3% 14.4% 19.5% 17.8% 6.9% 17.5%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 15
B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on
historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-
es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes
crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3
Demand
2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.5 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.7
2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.1 12.7 4.7 38.5 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.1
2015 24.6 13.8 8.1 46.4 22.5 12.4 4.6 39.5 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.0
2016 24.7 14.0 8.1 46.9 23.1 11.9 4.7 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.2
2017 24.9 14.4 8.2 47.4 24.0 11.5 4.7 40.3 6.2 3.7 10.0 97.8
4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.5 23.0 12.3 4.7 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.7
1Q 2016 24.6 13.6 8.6 46.8 23.2 11.4 4.5 39.1 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.4
2Q 2016 24.5 13.9 7.7 46.1 23.4 12.0 4.5 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.7
3Q 2016 25.1 14.4 7.8 47.3 22.7 12.3 4.9 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8
4Q 2016 24.8 14.2 8.4 47.4 23.3 11.6 4.8 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8
1Q 2017 24.5 13.9 8.6 47.0 23.9 11.0 4.5 39.5 6.2 3.7 10.0 96.5
2Q 2017 25.0 14.3 7.8 47.0 24.4 11.7 4.7 40.9 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.0
3Q 2017 25.0 14.8 7.9 47.6 23.7 11.9 4.9 40.6 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.3
4Q 2017 25.1 14.4 8.4 47.9 24.4 11.2 4.8 40.5 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.4
Supply
2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 30.2 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.2
2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 7.7 7.6 13.9 30.2 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.6
2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.9 7.8 14.1 30.8 28.2 8.7 38.1 96.5
2016 19.5 3.5 0.4 24.6 7.6 7.6 14.2 30.5 30.1 7.2 39.6 97.0
2017 20.2 3.5 0.4 25.3 7.4 7.5 14.4 30.4 29.7 7.4 39.2 97.4
4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.9 7.9 14.1 30.9 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4
1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.3 7.8 7.4 14.3 30.5 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.6
2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.1 7.6 7.4 14.1 30.2 29.8 8.0 39.9 96.1
3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.3 7.4 7.7 14.0 30.2 30.6 7.7 39.5 96.9
4Q 2016 19.7 3.6 0.4 25.0 7.4 7.7 14.6 30.7 30.8 7.3 40.0 98.2
1Q 2017 19.9 3.7 0.4 25.2 7.4 7.6 14.4 30.5 29.6 7.2 38.9 96.6
2Q 2017 19.8 3.5 0.4 24.8 7.3 7.5 14.3 30.2 29.7 7.3 39.2 96.9
3Q 2017 20.2 3.4 0.4 25.2 7.2 7.5 14.3 30.1 29.7 7.7 39.6 97.8
4Q 2017 21.1 3.4 0.4 26.1 7.2 7.6 14.4 30.3 29.6 7.4 39.2 98.1
Balance
2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.0 -4.3 9.3 -7.0 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5
2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -13.4 -5.1 9.2 -8.3 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.5
2015 -4.6 -10.3 -7.6 -21.3 -14.6 -4.6 9.5 -8.7 22.4 5.3 28.9 1.5
2016 -5.2 -10.5 -7.7 -22.3 -15.5 -4.3 9.5 -9.2 24.1 3.7 30.0 0.8
2017 -4.7 -10.9 -7.8 -22.1 -16.6 -4.0 9.7 -9.9 23.4 3.7 29.2 -0.4
4Q 2015 -4.4 -10.1 -7.7 -21.1 -15.1 -4.4 9.4 -9.1 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.7
1Q 2016 -4.7 -10.0 -8.2 -21.5 -15.4 -4.0 9.8 -8.5 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.2
2Q 2016 -5.5 -10.5 -7.3 -22.0 -15.8 -4.6 9.6 -9.7 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.4
3Q 2016 -5.8 -11.1 -7.4 -23.0 -15.3 -4.6 9.1 -9.7 24.6 4.2 29.9 0.1
4Q 2016 -5.1 -10.6 -8.0 -22.4 -15.9 -3.9 9.8 -8.9 24.8 3.7 30.4 1.4
1Q 2017 -4.6 -10.2 -8.2 -21.8 -16.5 -3.4 9.9 -9.0 23.4 3.5 28.9 0.1
2Q 2017 -5.2 -10.8 -7.4 -22.2 -17.1 -4.2 9.6 -10.7 23.5 3.7 29.2 -1.1
3Q 2017 -4.8 -11.4 -7.5 -22.4 -16.5 -4.4 9.4 -10.5 23.5 4.0 29.6 -0.5
4Q 2017 -4.0 -11.0 -8.0 -21.8 -17.2 -3.6 9.6 -10.2 23.4 3.7 29.2 -0.3
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 16
B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)
B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve
estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All
stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2015 19.98 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.92 8.07 14.03 30.02 28.16 8.68 38.14 92.08
2016 19.48 3.52 0.43 23.42 7.57 7.55 14.24 29.34 30.13 7.23 39.59 92.35
2017 20.25 3.48 0.39 24.12 7.33 7.63 14.36 29.32 29.68 7.41 39.22 92.66
4Q 2016 19.65 3.64 0.41 23.70 7.48 7.95 14.52 29.96 30.85 7.26 40.04 93.70
1Q 2017 19.96 3.66 0.39 24.00 7.50 7.57 14.43 29.51 29.61 7.16 38.93 92.44
2Q 2017 19.76 3.49 0.40 23.65 7.36 7.62 14.36 29.34 29.72 7.33 39.20 92.19
3Q 2017 20.17 3.37 0.41 23.95 7.27 7.65 14.26 29.19 29.72 7.69 39.58 92.72
4Q 2017 21.11 3.42 0.38 24.90 7.26 7.67 14.37 29.31 29.65 7.41 39.17 93.38
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.4% -6.0% -7.3% 5.1% -2.9% -3.5% -1.0% -2.2% -3.9% 2.0% -2.2% -0.3%
Feb-17 20.02 3.66 0.38 24.06 7.50 7.92 14.46 29.89 29.61 7.20 38.80 92.75
Mar-17 19.96 3.73 0.39 24.08 7.49 7.67 14.39 29.55 29.56 6.93 38.47 92.10
Apr-17 19.55 3.62 0.39 23.56 7.39 7.46 14.36 29.20 29.69 6.98 38.84 91.60
May-17 19.68 3.47 0.39 23.54 7.37 7.63 14.28 29.28 29.68 7.35 39.14 91.96
Jun-17 19.95 3.37 0.41 23.73 7.52 7.65 14.33 29.50 29.81 7.56 39.51 92.74
Jul-17 20.25 3.48 0.42 24.14 7.36 7.67 14.36 29.40 29.78 7.88 39.84 93.38
Aug-17 19.87 3.37 0.42 23.66 7.28 7.63 14.19 29.10 29.75 7.65 39.58 92.34
Sep-17 20.05 3.25 0.41 23.72 7.25 7.72 14.28 29.26 29.76 7.60 39.53 92.51
Oct-17 20.09 3.50 0.41 24.01 7.24 7.72 14.29 29.26 29.69 7.52 39.42 92.69
Nov-17 20.45 3.52 0.42 24.38 7.20 7.70 14.36 29.26 29.64 7.53 39.29 92.93
Dec-17 21.15 3.27 0.37 24.78 7.22 7.73 14.44 29.39 29.65 7.25 38.99 93.16
Jan-18 21.16 3.61 0.41 25.18 7.25 7.70 14.43 29.39 29.68 7.34 39.08 93.65
Feb-18 21.32 3.58 0.41 25.31 7.16 7.65 14.44 29.24 29.63 7.32 39.01 93.56
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.5% -2.2% 7.9% 5.2% -4.5% -3.4% -0.1% -2.2% 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.9%
R/P Ratio2 29.2 10.0 27.4 26.5 15.7 22.0 28.0 23.4 74.2 150.5 84.6 50.0
Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD
Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2
2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015
2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985
2017 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853
4Q 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985
1Q 2017 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030
2Q 2017 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016
3Q 2017 625 748 1,572 338 555 965 198 172 433 1,161 1,475 2,970
4Q 2017 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -10.3% -5.1% -6.3% -2.9% -3.3% -2.9% -1.4% 1.7% -0.6% -6.7% -3.7% -4.4%
Jan-17 665 781 1,623 355 597 1,022 193 166 421 1,212 1,544 3,067
Feb-17 683 764 1,619 360 592 1,025 185 165 412 1,228 1,521 3,056
Mar-17 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030
Apr-17 676 752 1,608 353 599 1,026 193 165 420 1,223 1,516 3,054
May-17 671 762 1,619 359 572 1,006 198 170 432 1,228 1,504 3,057
Jun-17 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016
Jul-17 646 755 1,591 364 565 1,004 197 176 437 1,206 1,495 3,031
Aug-17 625 756 1,581 346 573 990 195 182 443 1,166 1,511 3,014
Sep-17 625 748 1,572 338 555 965 198 172 433 1,161 1,475 2,970
Oct-17 617 727 1,542 335 540 948 188 183 435 1,140 1,450 2,926
Nov-17 610 723 1,524 347 531 953 188 176 427 1,145 1,430 2,903
Dec-17 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853
Jan-18 584 718 1,488 344 561 975 187 161 408 1,114 1,439 2,871
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.3% -8.1% -8.3% -3.1% -6.1% -4.6% -2.8% -3.4% -3.2% -8.1% -6.8% -6.4%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 17
B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)
Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on
spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12
Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Gabon Total1 Iraq2
2015 10.16 2.85 2.93 2.79 0.65 1.76 1.77 0.40 1.11 2.46 0.54 0.23 27.65 4.00
2016 10.42 3.55 3.05 2.88 0.65 1.71 1.47 0.39 1.11 2.24 0.55 0.23 28.38 4.42
2017 9.96 3.80 2.93 2.71 0.61 1.64 1.53 0.83 1.05 1.97 0.53 0.20 27.88 4.47
4Q 2016 10.55 3.81 3.13 2.86 0.64 1.61 1.46 0.57 1.12 2.12 0.54 0.22 28.63 4.64
1Q 2017 9.88 3.78 2.96 2.71 0.60 1.64 1.39 0.66 1.05 2.08 0.52 0.20 27.61 4.46
2Q 2017 9.97 3.77 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.64 1.49 0.71 1.06 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.81 4.50
3Q 2017 9.99 3.83 2.94 2.70 0.60 1.67 1.62 0.94 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.20 28.20 4.48
4Q 2017 9.99 3.81 2.90 2.70 0.61 1.62 1.60 1.00 1.02 1.75 0.53 0.21 27.86 4.45
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.3% 0.0% -7.3% -5.6% -4.7% 0.6% 9.6% 75.4% -8.9% -17.5% -1.9% -4.5% -2.7% -4.1%
Feb-17 9.98 3.81 2.93 2.71 0.59 1.65 1.45 0.67 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.62 4.45
Mar-17 9.93 3.79 2.91 2.70 0.61 1.64 1.30 0.61 1.05 2.03 0.52 0.20 27.29 4.43
Apr-17 9.96 3.75 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.38 0.55 1.06 2.02 0.53 0.20 27.49 4.46
May-17 9.92 3.78 2.93 2.72 0.63 1.61 1.53 0.74 1.06 2.00 0.53 0.20 27.78 4.48
Jun-17 10.05 3.79 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.57 0.84 1.06 2.04 0.53 0.20 28.11 4.50
Jul-17 10.03 3.81 2.94 2.70 0.61 1.67 1.64 1.01 1.07 2.03 0.54 0.22 28.40 4.50
Aug-17 9.96 3.84 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.66 0.88 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.18 28.15 4.49
Sep-17 9.97 3.84 2.93 2.71 0.58 1.66 1.61 0.92 1.06 1.94 0.54 0.19 28.08 4.49
Oct-17 10.05 3.78 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.58 0.99 1.00 1.89 0.53 0.21 28.09 4.40
Nov-17 9.97 3.80 2.90 2.71 0.61 1.62 1.64 0.97 1.01 1.84 0.54 0.20 27.94 4.42
Dec-17 9.97 3.80 2.87 2.70 0.61 1.59 1.61 1.00 1.04 1.61 0.52 0.20 27.65 4.49
Jan-18 9.98 3.80 2.85 2.70 0.62 1.57 1.68 1.00 1.02 1.61 0.52 0.21 27.69 4.48
Feb-18 9.98 3.82 2.80 2.70 0.60 1.57 1.70 1.02 1.04 1.55 0.51 0.20 27.62 4.48
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 0.3% -4.4% -0.4% 1.7% -4.8% 17.2% 52.2% -1.0% -24.4% -3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Persian Gulf
Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD
Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.
2015 19.1 87.6 5.65 12.1 84.6 7.28 6.7 90.7 0.62 37.9 86.0
2016 18.9 85.6 4.72 11.9 85.2 4.28 6.9 92.5 0.18 37.7 85.5
2017 19.3 87.3 6.36 12.3 87.5 5.95 7.0 94.4 1.72 38.6 87.5
4Q 2016 18.6 84.0 5.13 12.3 88.0 5.14 6.9 92.8 1.1 37.8 85.7
1Q 2017 18.8 85.0 5.38 12.0 85.6 4.87 7.2 97.4 1.0 38.0 86.2
2Q 2017 20.0 90.3 6.09 12.0 85.6 6.17 6.6 89.2 1.2 38.6 87.5
3Q 2017 19.2 87.0 9.15 12.7 90.3 7.59 7.0 94.5 3.0 38.9 88.2
4Q 2017 19.2 86.9 4.80 12.4 88.5 5.16 7.2 96.4 1.73 38.8 87.9
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.5% -6.5% 0.6% 0.4% 3.9% 59.0% 2.6%
Jan-17 19.0 85.8 6.28 12.3 87.7 4.85 7.4 100.0 1.4 38.7 87.7
Feb-17 18.4 83.3 4.96 11.8 84.0 5.44 7.4 99.6 1.1 37.6 85.2
Mar-17 19.0 85.8 4.90 11.9 85.1 4.32 6.9 92.7 0.7 37.8 85.6
Apr-17 19.8 89.5 6.10 12.1 86.6 6.29 6.8 92.2 1.0 38.8 87.9
May-17 20.1 90.9 6.00 11.8 84.4 5.64 6.7 89.9 0.5 38.6 87.5
Jun-17 20.0 90.5 6.17 12.0 85.8 6.57 6.4 85.6 2.1 38.4 87.1
Jul-17 20.0 90.5 7.98 12.6 89.5 6.80 7.1 95.1 2.6 39.6 89.8
Aug-17 19.7 89.3 9.56 12.8 91.2 7.79 7.2 96.7 2.9 39.7 90.0
Sep-17 18.0 81.3 9.92 12.6 90.1 8.17 6.8 91.6 3.4 37.4 84.8
Oct-17 18.5 83.5 5.89 12.4 88.1 5.92 6.8 92.2 2.1 37.7 85.4
Nov-17 19.4 87.5 5.19 12.4 88.1 5.77 7.2 96.6 1.6 38.9 88.2
Dec-17 19.8 89.7 3.32 12.5 89.3 3.80 7.5 100.5 1.5 39.8 90.3
Jan-18 19.2 86.8 3.63 12.3 88.0 3.49 7.3 98.8 0.5 38.9 88.2
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.2% -42.2% 0.4% -28% -1.2% -60.6% 0.5%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 18
C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-
es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-
conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
United States1 East Mid-West
Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38
2016 14.61 19.63 4.87 0.13 0.47 5.42 -4.94 3.63 5.13 -1.50
2017 15.35 19.87 3.73 -0.36 0.56 5.65 -5.10 3.80 5.07 -1.27
4Q 2016 14.62 19.75 4.69 -0.18 0.50 5.41 -4.91 3.59 5.17 -1.59
1Q 2017 14.78 19.49 4.26 0.02 0.51 5.55 -5.03 3.62 5.03 -1.41
2Q 2017 15.12 20.01 4.25 -0.21 0.54 5.57 -5.03 3.70 5.06 -1.36
3Q 2017 15.29 19.92 3.82 -0.33 0.56 5.65 -5.09 3.83 5.02 -1.20
4Q 2017 16.21 20.06 2.59 -0.90 0.61 5.85 -5.25 4.04 5.17 -1.13
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.9% 1.5% -44.8% 21.3% 8.1% 12.6% -0.1%
Jan-17 14.49 19.23 5.01 0.71 0.51 5.33 -4.82 3.52 4.97 -1.45
Feb-17 14.83 19.19 3.61 -0.12 0.51 5.43 -4.92 3.66 5.00 -1.34
Mar-17 15.02 20.03 4.17 -0.54 0.52 5.88 -5.36 3.68 5.12 -1.44
Apr-17 14.98 19.53 4.18 0.03 0.53 5.43 -4.91 3.66 4.87 -1.21
May-17 15.19 20.02 4.49 0.17 0.55 5.49 -4.94 3.71 5.11 -1.40
Jun-17 15.19 20.49 4.09 -0.82 0.56 5.79 -5.23 3.74 5.20 -1.46
Jul-17 15.27 20.02 3.62 -0.36 0.56 5.63 -5.07 3.74 4.85 -1.11
Aug-17 15.23 20.16 4.41 -0.38 0.56 5.87 -5.31 3.91 5.23 -1.32
Sep-17 15.37 19.58 3.44 -0.26 0.56 5.45 -4.89 3.83 4.98 -1.15
Oct-17 15.89 19.81 2.50 -1.13 0.59 5.70 -5.11 4.00 5.20 -1.20
Nov-17 16.50 20.28 2.63 -0.69 0.62 5.92 -5.30 4.10 5.33 -1.23
Dec-17 16.24 20.08 2.64 -0.89 0.61 5.94 -5.33 4.02 4.97 -0.95
Jan-18 16.12 20.46 3.66 -0.50 0.59 6.24 -5.66 4.00 5.09 -1.09
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.2% 6.4% -26.9% 14.9% 17.2% 13.6% 2.4%
% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.6% 30.5% 24.8% 24.9%
South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products
Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59
2016 8.14 5.39 2.75 1.07 0.71 0.35 1.30 2.99 -1.68
2017 8.59 5.36 3.23 1.14 0.71 0.43 1.27 3.08 -1.81
4Q 2016 8.16 5.53 2.63 1.06 0.71 0.35 1.31 2.93 -1.62
1Q 2017 8.30 5.30 3.01 1.04 0.69 0.35 1.30 2.92 -1.62
2Q 2017 8.49 5.53 2.96 1.10 0.72 0.38 1.28 3.14 -1.86
3Q 2017 8.52 5.29 3.23 1.17 0.74 0.43 1.22 3.22 -2.00
4Q 2017 9.03 5.30 3.73 1.25 0.69 0.56 1.29 3.04 -1.76
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.6% -4.1% 18.0% -2.7% -1.6% 4.0%
Jan-17 8.14 5.41 2.73 1.01 0.67 0.34 1.31 2.86 -1.55
Feb-17 8.33 5.21 3.12 1.05 0.69 0.35 1.29 2.86 -1.57
Mar-17 8.45 5.28 3.17 1.07 0.72 0.35 1.31 3.04 -1.74
Apr-17 8.40 5.42 2.98 1.08 0.69 0.40 1.32 3.12 -1.80
May-17 8.55 5.62 2.93 1.11 0.73 0.38 1.28 3.08 -1.80
Jun-17 8.53 5.56 2.97 1.11 0.74 0.37 1.24 3.21 -1.96
Jul-17 8.69 5.56 3.12 1.12 0.78 0.35 1.17 3.20 -2.03
Aug-17 8.38 4.97 3.41 1.17 0.77 0.40 1.22 3.32 -2.10
Sep-17 8.49 5.33 3.16 1.21 0.67 0.54 1.27 3.15 -1.88
Oct-17 8.78 5.02 3.77 1.23 0.72 0.51 1.28 3.16 -1.88
Nov-17 9.21 5.45 3.76 1.27 0.68 0.59 1.30 2.90 -1.61
Dec-17 9.09 5.44 3.65 1.24 0.67 0.57 1.29 3.07 -1.78
Jan-18 8.98 5.49 3.49 1.26 0.72 0.55 1.29 2.93 -1.64
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.3% 1.5% 24.8% 6.9% -1.9% 2.3%
% of Total2 55.7% 26.8% 7.8% 3.5% 8.0% 14.3%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 19
C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic
Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply
Monthly.
Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum
Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39
2016 9.33 1.61 3.88 0.36 17.17 2.49 19.63
2017 9.32 1.68 3.94 0.36 17.28 2.49 19.87
4Q 2016 9.22 1.63 4.01 0.35 17.19 2.59 19.75
1Q 2017 8.95 1.60 3.95 0.36 16.68 2.79 19.49
2Q 2017 9.53 1.68 3.91 0.37 17.56 2.34 20.01
3Q 2017 9.56 1.71 3.87 0.30 17.59 2.23 19.92
4Q 2017 9.23 1.73 4.02 0.40 17.29 2.59 20.06
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.1% 6.4% 0.2% 13.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5%
Jan-17 8.50 1.59 3.78 0.46 16.20 3.04 19.23
Feb-17 8.99 1.53 3.91 0.27 16.51 2.71 19.19
Mar-17 9.35 1.67 4.15 0.36 17.33 2.62 20.03
Apr-17 9.25 1.62 3.79 0.32 16.96 2.48 19.53
May-17 9.59 1.67 3.97 0.37 17.67 2.40 20.02
Jun-17 9.77 1.76 3.97 0.42 18.05 2.13 20.49
Jul-17 9.57 1.73 3.71 0.27 17.53 2.20 20.02
Aug-17 9.77 1.77 3.99 0.34 18.03 2.15 20.16
Sep-17 9.33 1.64 3.92 0.31 17.22 2.35 19.58
Oct-17 9.35 1.71 3.97 0.36 17.25 2.23 19.81
Nov-17 9.14 1.72 4.17 0.43 17.47 2.50 20.28
Dec-17 9.20 1.76 3.93 0.39 17.15 3.05 20.08
Jan-18 8.74 1.59 4.39 0.34 16.91 3.12 20.46
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.8% -0.4% 16.2% -26.1% 4.4% 2.6% 6.4%
Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3
2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325
2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330
2017 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292
4Q 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330
1Q 2017 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313
2Q 2017 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306
3Q 2017 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286
4Q 2017 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.1% -5.9% -7.3% -2.4% 4.1% -6.7% -8.1% -13.9% -3.6% -12.0% -29.3% -11.5%
Jan-17 211 330 1,326 44 140 2,053 1,200 28 42 169 40 333
Feb-17 205 333 1,325 45 142 2,049 1,218 26 44 162 40 327
Mar-17 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313
Apr-17 195 338 1,311 47 143 2,033 1,213 22 45 155 40 318
May-17 196 338 1,311 46 148 2,039 1,201 22 44 154 40 318
Jun-17 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306
Jul-17 186 333 1,299 42 138 1,998 1,161 23 41 151 34 303
Aug-17 180 331 1,297 42 136 1,986 1,138 25 40 148 35 297
Sep-17 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286
Oct-17 164 333 1,265 41 140 1,943 1,128 23 42 130 32 273
Nov-17 170 317 1,247 43 145 1,923 1,114 24 41 133 32 275
Dec-17 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292
Jan-18 170 292 1,228 42 147 1,879 1,084 25 43 141 32 295
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -19.6% -11.5% -7.4% -4.5% 4.7% -8.4% -9.6% -11.5% 0.7% -16.5% -20.0% -11.5%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 20
C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA
Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude
oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
OPEC
Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf
2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50
2016 2.93 -0.21 0.73 -0.23 0.41 1.77 4.87 0.72 1.10 0.23 3.23 1.74
2017 3.18 -0.38 0.34 -0.35 0.52 1.74 3.73 0.60 0.95 0.33 3.16 1.73
4Q 2016 3.09 -0.41 0.61 -0.14 0.50 1.75 4.69 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.74
1Q 2017 3.41 -0.31 0.49 -0.27 0.51 2.00 4.26 0.67 1.28 0.29 3.41 2.00
2Q 2017 3.06 -0.18 0.38 -0.27 0.51 1.93 4.25 0.67 1.09 0.31 3.44 1.94
3Q 2017 3.03 -0.49 0.35 -0.22 0.50 1.51 3.82 0.58 0.73 0.31 2.99 1.50
4Q 2017 3.23 -0.54 0.12 -0.63 0.54 1.52 2.59 0.46 0.69 0.40 2.80 1.48
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.7% 32% -80.0% 338.9% 9.5% -13.0% -44.8% -32.0% -31.5% 70.2% -12.6% -14.8%
Jan-17 3.52 -0.35 0.39 -0.06 0.55 2.07 5.01 0.66 1.34 0.32 3.58 2.07
Feb-17 3.41 -0.34 0.59 -0.34 0.44 1.99 3.61 0.66 1.34 0.21 3.20 1.99
Mar-17 3.31 -0.23 0.51 -0.40 0.54 1.95 4.17 0.70 1.17 0.34 3.44 1.95
Apr-17 3.07 -0.20 0.61 -0.19 0.48 2.08 4.18 0.76 1.15 0.32 3.50 2.09
May-17 3.21 -0.07 0.34 -0.36 0.48 1.93 4.49 0.69 1.11 0.29 3.45 1.94
Jun-17 2.91 -0.27 0.20 -0.28 0.58 1.80 4.09 0.56 1.02 0.31 3.37 1.80
Jul-17 2.85 -0.42 0.36 -0.41 0.44 1.75 3.62 0.62 0.79 0.24 3.23 1.77
Aug-17 3.16 -0.42 0.49 -0.08 0.62 1.37 4.41 0.55 0.74 0.39 3.00 1.36
Sep-17 3.07 -0.63 0.18 -0.18 0.44 1.40 3.44 0.58 0.67 0.29 2.75 1.36
Oct-17 3.27 -0.47 0.09 -0.71 0.59 1.53 2.50 0.53 0.57 0.43 2.96 1.47
Nov-17 3.00 -0.56 0.20 -0.51 0.58 1.57 2.62 0.47 0.78 0.46 2.85 1.55
Dec-17 3.42 -0.60 0.08 -0.66 0.46 1.46 2.64 0.40 0.72 0.30 2.60 1.42
Jan-18 3.50 -0.69 0.53 -0.44 0.57 1.55 3.66 0.42 0.74 0.33 2.76 1.55
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.4% 101% 36.2% 692.9% 3.3% -25.0% -26.9% -36.3% -44.8% 2% -23.0% -25.3%
% of Total3 95.7% -19.0% 14.4% -12.1% 15.6% 42.4% 100.0% 11.4% 20.3% 8.9% 75.4% 42.3%
Region of Origin
PAD District U.S. Major Producers
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2
2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50
2016 0.05 1.71 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.95 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.25 1.59
2017 0.05 1.68 5.74 0.68 0.99 9.14 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.38 1.68
4Q 2016 0.04 1.62 5.40 0.65 0.99 8.71 0.47 0.53 0.15 3.17 1.58
1Q 2017 0.04 1.63 5.69 0.65 1.05 9.06 0.53 0.52 0.15 3.26 1.76
2Q 2017 0.04 1.62 5.58 0.63 1.00 8.87 0.51 0.48 0.14 3.25 1.68
3Q 2017 0.05 1.68 5.81 0.68 0.96 9.17 0.46 0.49 0.14 3.45 1.69
4Q 2017 0.05 1.79 5.88 0.75 0.97 9.44 0.48 0.49 0.13 3.57 1.60
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 21.4% 10.5% 8.8% 15.4% -2.8% 8.4% 2.4% -7.4% -14.4% 12.7% 1.0%
Jan-17 0.04 1.60 5.35 0.62 1.00 8.62 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.09 1.63
Feb-17 0.05 1.72 6.13 0.69 1.13 9.72 0.57 0.56 0.16 3.49 1.91
Mar-17 0.04 1.57 5.59 0.62 1.02 8.84 0.52 0.50 0.14 3.19 1.75
Apr-17 0.04 1.53 5.33 0.58 0.94 8.43 0.48 0.46 0.13 3.09 1.62
May-17 0.04 1.65 5.73 0.65 1.02 9.10 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.30 1.76
Jun-17 0.05 1.67 5.68 0.67 1.02 9.08 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.35 1.66
Jul-17 0.05 1.67 5.78 0.68 1.00 9.17 0.51 0.49 0.14 3.43 1.66
Aug-17 0.05 1.62 5.56 0.65 0.92 8.80 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.34 1.58
Sep-17 0.05 1.74 6.10 0.71 0.94 9.55 0.44 0.51 0.14 3.59 1.82
Oct-17 0.05 1.75 5.74 0.73 0.94 9.20 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.37 1.69
Nov-17 0.05 1.76 5.94 0.76 0.97 9.48 0.48 0.49 0.13 3.57 1.65
Dec-17 0.06 1.86 5.95 0.77 0.99 9.64 0.51 0.49 0.13 3.77 1.45
Jan-18 0.06 1.83 6.10 0.76 0.97 9.71 0.49 0.47 0.13 3.77 1.61
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 33.6% 14.2% 13.9% 22.9% -3.1% 12.7% -0.6% -5.5% -8.0% 21.8% -0.9%
R/P Ratio3 7.7 12.0 9.2 10.5 10.1 9.9 8.7 11.5 10.5 10.2 7.0
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 21
C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)
Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)
Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.
Source: Oil and Gas Journal.
East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.
Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.
2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3
2016 1.11 86.6 3.62 91.9 8.68 90.7 0.60 86.5 2.51 85.9 16.51 89.8
2017 1.07 88.7 3.75 93.6 8.87 90.9 0.62 89.4 2.58 88.7 16.88 90.9
4Q 2016 1.09 85.1 3.65 92.1 8.72 90.6 0.60 86.6 2.35 80.4 16.41 88.8
1Q 2017 0.95 75.5 3.68 92.0 8.51 87.4 0.60 87.0 2.47 84.4 16.22 87.1
2Q 2017 1.10 91.3 3.84 96.0 9.28 95.2 0.62 89.7 2.58 87.8 17.42 93.8
3Q 2017 1.11 93.8 3.84 95.7 8.59 88.0 0.66 94.8 2.69 92.6 16.89 91.1
4Q 2017 1.12 95.0 3.65 90.9 9.07 92.7 0.60 86.3 2.56 90.1 17.01 91.8
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.2% -0.1% 4.1% -0.7% 9.1% 3.6%
Jan-17 1.05 83.7 3.72 93.0 8.54 87.7 0.61 88.1 2.53 86.4 16.46 88.4
Feb-17 0.90 71.9 3.62 90.6 8.34 85.6 0.59 85.4 2.37 80.7 15.82 85.0
Mar-17 0.89 70.9 3.70 92.4 8.67 89.0 0.61 87.4 2.52 86.0 16.38 88.0
Apr-17 1.06 84.6 3.80 95.1 9.08 93.2 0.64 92.9 2.68 91.3 17.27 92.7
May-17 1.11 94.1 3.81 95.3 9.44 96.8 0.61 88.4 2.52 85.8 17.49 94.3
Jun-17 1.13 95.5 3.91 97.6 9.33 95.7 0.61 87.7 2.53 86.4 17.51 94.3
Jul-17 1.08 91.3 3.86 96.2 9.42 96.6 0.65 93.4 2.64 89.9 17.64 95.0
Aug-17 1.14 96.5 3.97 99.1 8.73 89.5 0.65 94.4 2.73 93.2 17.23 92.8
Sep-17 1.11 93.6 3.69 91.9 7.62 78.0 0.67 96.5 2.70 94.8 15.79 85.3
Oct-17 1.09 92.2 3.40 84.7 8.79 90.0 0.62 89.8 2.44 85.7 16.34 88.3
Nov-17 1.16 98.1 3.73 92.9 9.08 92.9 0.58 84.0 2.57 90.2 17.12 92.5
Dec-17 1.12 94.5 3.81 95.0 9.35 95.3 0.59 85.3 2.68 94.2 17.56 94.7
Jan-18 1.07 87.3 3.72 91.4 8.94 91.7 0.63 91.8 2.56 90.1 16.92 91.1
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.7% 0.1% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 2.8%
% of Total1 6.3% 22.0% 52.9% 3.7% 15.1% 100.0%
NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles
(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)
2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50
2016 9.28 11.63 10.24 11.51
2017 9.22 13.81 11.61 12.20
1Q 2017 7.31 9.38 11.22 12.30
2Q 2017 9.89 13.08 11.68 14.50
3Q 2017 12.01 17.72 13.20 14.41
4Q 2017 7.66 15.05 10.35 7.58
1Q 2018 7.45 11.26 10.89 12.52
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 20.0% -2.9% 1.8%
Mar-17 7.02 11.15 11.76 13.36
Apr-17 9.84 14.06 12.78 14.20
May-17 9.70 12.82 11.64 15.10
Jun-17 10.13 12.35 10.62 14.21
Jul-17 12.53 15.23 12.81 15.32
Aug-17 13.24 18.72 15.35 16.44
Sep-17 10.27 19.20 11.45 11.47
Oct-17 7.54 15.16 10.06 7.00
Nov-17 7.89 14.83 10.93 8.74
Dec-17 7.54 15.16 10.06 7.00
Jan-18 8.55 14.02 11.55 9.73
Feb-18 7.29 9.24 10.73 11.89
Mar-18 6.50 10.51 10.40 15.93
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -7.4% -5.7% -11.6% 19.2%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 22
D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)
D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Canada East West
Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2015 4.51 1.58 2.96 0.03 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.29 0.62 3.67
2016 4.44 1.55 2.88 0.00 0.25 0.87 -0.62 4.18 0.68 3.51
2017 4.80 1.74 3.06 0.01 0.26 0.95 -0.69 4.54 0.79 3.75
4Q 2016 4.83 1.53 3.41 0.11 0.32 0.84 -0.52 4.51 0.70 3.82
1Q 2017 4.93 1.74 3.21 0.02 0.32 0.93 -0.61 4.61 0.81 3.80
2Q 2017 4.47 1.73 2.72 -0.03 0.31 0.97 -0.66 4.16 0.76 3.40
3Q 2017 4.87 1.79 3.10 0.03 0.26 0.98 -0.73 4.61 0.81 3.80
4Q 2017 5.06 1.72 3.38 0.03 0.31 0.93 -0.63 4.76 0.78 3.98
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% 12.0% -0.8% -4.5% 11.6% 5.4% 12.5%
Dec-16 4.80 1.63 3.11 -0.06 0.31 0.89 -0.58 4.49 0.73 3.76
Jan-17 5.01 1.76 3.27 0.02 0.34 0.93 -0.59 4.67 0.84 3.84
Feb-17 5.00 1.69 3.42 0.11 0.31 0.91 -0.59 4.69 0.79 3.90
Mar-17 4.79 1.76 2.95 -0.08 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.47 0.80 3.67
Apr-17 4.35 1.67 2.60 -0.08 0.29 0.94 -0.65 4.06 0.73 3.33
May-17 4.51 1.71 2.80 0.00 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.19 0.75 3.44
Jun-17 4.55 1.80 2.74 0.00 0.32 1.01 -0.69 4.23 0.79 3.44
Jul-17 4.82 1.81 3.11 0.10 0.30 0.98 -0.68 4.52 0.83 3.69
Aug-17 4.99 1.81 3.18 -0.01 0.24 1.00 -0.76 4.75 0.80 3.95
Sep-17 4.78 1.76 3.02 -0.01 0.23 0.96 -0.74 4.56 0.80 3.76
Oct-17 4.82 1.67 3.12 -0.02 0.30 0.91 -0.61 4.52 0.76 3.75
Nov-17 5.12 1.72 3.38 -0.03 0.31 0.94 -0.63 4.81 0.78 4.04
Dec-17 5.25 1.76 3.64 0.15 0.31 0.95 -0.64 4.95 0.81 4.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.4% 8.2% 17.0% -0.9% 6.7% 10.1% 10.1%
% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 5.9% 54.1% 94.1% 45.9%
Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4
2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6
2017 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9
4Q 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6
1Q 2017 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6
2Q 2017 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3
3Q 2017 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2
4Q 2017 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% 8.4% 6.4% 5.7% 2.1% 3.5%
Dec-16 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6
Jan-17 16.7 14.7 2.0 49.1 77.5 126.6
Feb-17 15.8 14.7 2.0 49.4 80.5 129.9
Mar-17 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6
Apr-17 14.8 15.5 2.4 49.7 72.5 122.2
May-17 15.5 13.2 1.9 46.8 71.3 118.1
Jun-17 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3
Jul-17 15.0 14.0 2.1 48.4 71.6 120.0
Aug-17 15.2 13.3 2.1 47.3 74.4 121.7
Sep-17 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2
Oct-17 17.0 13.3 2.3 49.5 72.7 122.2
Nov-17 15.7 12.3 1.8 45.6 77.2 122.8
Dec-17 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% 8.4% 6.4% 5.7% 2.1% 3.5%
Finished Products
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1
2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80
2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81
2017 0.81 0.57 0.05 1.86
4Q 2016 0.80 0.54 0.04 1.80
1Q 2017 0.76 0.55 0.05 1.75
2Q 2017 0.82 0.54 0.06 1.83
3Q 2017 0.85 0.60 0.05 1.99
4Q 2017 0.81 0.60 0.05 1.86
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 9.9% 14.7% 3.6%
Dec-16 0.81 0.55 0.04 1.80
Jan-17 0.73 0.52 0.05 1.72
Feb-17 0.76 0.55 0.06 1.72
Mar-17 0.79 0.57 0.05 1.82
Apr-17 0.76 0.47 0.04 1.69
May-17 0.83 0.56 0.08 1.86
Jun-17 0.86 0.60 0.06 1.94
Jul-17 0.86 0.57 0.05 1.96
Aug-17 0.88 0.63 0.04 2.07
Sep-17 0.81 0.60 0.06 1.95
Oct-17 0.81 0.64 0.04 1.94
Nov-17 0.82 0.62 0.05 1.89
Dec-17 0.80 0.53 0.06 1.75
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.2% -3.4% -94.1% -2.9%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 23
D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s
Energy Statistics Handbook.
Non-OPEC OPEC Imports
Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total
2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567
2016 0 211 10 10 510 70 0 0 0 70 0 580
2017 0 182 12 3 582 32 0 0 0 32 0 613
4Q 2016 0 253 0 13 473 30 0 0 0 30 0 503
1Q 2017 0 181 20 6 615 38 0 0 0 38 0 654
2Q 2017 0 89 0 0 615 55 0 0 0 55 0 670
3Q 2017 0 217 0 0 540 33 0 0 0 33 0 573
4Q 2017 0 0 0 0 557 0 0 0 0 0 0 557
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% -99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -99.9% 0.0% 10.7%
Dec-16 0 218 44 0 494 0 0 0 0 0 0 494
Jan-17 0 269 59 19 647 0 0 0 0 0 0 647
Feb-17 0 274 0 0 612 81 0 0 0 81 0 692
Mar-17 0 0 0 0 588 34 0 0 0 34 0 622
Apr-17 0 0 0 0 579 36 0 0 0 36 0 615
May-17 0 266 0 0 562 129 0 0 0 129 0 691
Jun-17 0 0 0 0 704 0 0 0 0 0 0 704
Jul-17 0 260 0 0 652 1 0 0 0 1 0 653
Aug-17 0 145 0 0 436 0 0 0 0 0 0 436
Sep-17 0 245 0 0 532 98 0 0 0 98 0 630
Oct-17 0 0 0 0 541 0 0 0 0 0 0 541
Nov-17 0 0 0 0 541 0 0 0 0 0 0 541
Dec-17 0 0 0 0 588 0 0 0 0 0 0 588
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9%
% of Total3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type
Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs
2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22
2016 3.08 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.87 0.78 0.93 0.40 1.49 0.26
2017 3.38 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.19 0.81 1.03 0.40 1.64 0.31
4Q 2016 3.36 0.47 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.18 0.79 1.15 0.41 1.57 0.26
1Q 2017 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.25 0.81 1.09 0.41 1.65 0.29
2Q 2017 3.08 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.23 3.89 0.81 0.87 0.40 1.52 0.29
3Q 2017 3.47 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.18 4.25 0.77 1.08 0.40 1.68 0.31
4Q 2017 3.56 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.39 0.84 1.08 0.40 1.72 0.35
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.9% 4.9% 7.5% -80.1% -5.5% 4.9% 6.9% -6.6% -1.9% 9.8% 31.9%
Dec-16 3.34 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.16 0.79 1.12 0.41 1.56 0.28
Jan-17 3.46 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.25 4.30 0.81 1.15 0.41 1.64 0.28
Feb-17 3.50 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.33 0.80 1.15 0.41 1.68 0.28
Mar-17 3.29 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.13 0.82 0.96 0.41 1.63 0.29
Apr-17 2.97 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.22 3.77 0.80 0.74 0.41 1.54 0.28
May-17 3.09 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 3.90 0.81 0.90 0.39 1.50 0.29
Jun-17 3.19 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 4.00 0.82 0.97 0.40 1.53 0.29
Jul-17 3.41 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.20 0.80 1.05 0.39 1.64 0.32
Aug-17 3.60 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.17 4.37 0.75 1.18 0.41 1.72 0.30
Sep-17 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.16 4.17 0.76 1.01 0.40 1.68 0.32
Oct-17 3.32 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.13 0.82 0.90 0.40 1.67 0.34
Nov-17 3.65 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.48 0.85 1.09 0.40 1.79 0.35
Dec-17 3.72 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.55 0.86 1.24 0.40 1.70 0.35
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.3% 3.4% 4.8% -46.0% -1.6% 9.4% 9.3% 10.1% -2.6% 9.2% 27.0%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 24
E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337
2016 663 82 7 751 180 233 413 299 129 428 1,592
2017 1,096 75 15 1,186 186 228 413 307 121 428 2,027
1Q 2017 1,043 81 14 1,138 184 218 401 304 122 426 1,966
2Q 2017 1,030 75 17 1,122 182 222 404 310 129 439 1,965
3Q 2017 1,173 71 15 1,259 178 236 414 310 119 429 2,102
4Q 2017 1,138 72 16 1,225 199 234 433 302 115 417 2,075
1Q 2018 1,257 70 16 1,343 196 238 434 310 122 432 2,208
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 20.5% -14.3% 17.1% 18.0% 6.7% 9.2% 8.1% 2.0% -0.3% 1.3% 12.3%
Mar-17 1,060 75 13 1,148 185 220 405 307 125 432 1,985
Apr-17 984 72 19 1,075 186 214 400 308 135 443 1,918
May-17 1,001 78 18 1,097 179 223 402 308 128 436 1,935
Jun-17 1,105 74 14 1,193 180 230 410 314 124 438 2,041
Jul-17 1,172 65 14 1,251 181 239 420 313 126 439 2,110
Aug-17 1,182 74 15 1,271 180 238 418 308 119 427 2,116
Sep-17 1,165 73 16 1,254 173 232 405 310 111 421 2,080
Oct-17 1,138 75 17 1,230 196 231 427 307 113 420 2,077
Nov-17 1,125 69 15 1,209 198 237 435 300 114 414 2,058
Dec-17 1,150 71 15 1,236 202 235 437 299 117 416 2,089
Jan-18 1,233 68 15 1,316 207 235 442 301 116 417 2,175
Feb-18 1,311 68 16 1,395 194 243 437 312 127 439 2,271
Mar-18 1,228 73 17 1,318 187 235 422 316 123 439 2,179
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 15.8% -2.7% 30.8% 14.8% 1.1% 6.8% 4.2% 2.9% -1.6% 1.6% 9.8%
% of Total2 56.4% 3.4% 0.8% 60.5% 8.6% 10.8% 19.4% 14.5% 5.6% 20.1% 100.0%
United States Canada North America1
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total
2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170
2016 39 117 30 260 84 508 485 23 128 536 100 636
2017 79 169 31 470 136 875 854 20 204 906 172 1,079
1Q 2017 60 146 30 407 113 739 718 21 288 879 148 1,027
2Q 2017 77 171 33 489 140 892 871 21 115 831 176 1,007
3Q 2017 85 184 31 498 151 947 928 19 208 969 186 1,155
4Q 2017 95 176 31 485 142 921 901 20 205 947 178 1,125
1Q 2018 111 172 29 510 142 965 949 16 273 1,053 185 1,238
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 84.0% 18.0% -2.2% 25.1% 25.7% 30.6% 32.2% -24.1% -5.2% 19.8% 25.0% 20.6%
Mar-17 65 151 30 431 121 789 770 19 253 888 154 1,042
Apr-17 76 167 33 482 136 853 833 20 109 796 166 962
May-17 76 167 33 485 137 893 871 22 85 800 178 978
Jun-17 80 178 34 500 146 931 909 22 150 897 184 1,081
Jul-17 81 188 35 504 152 953 931 22 198 962 189 1,151
Aug-17 84 183 29 499 151 947 930 17 217 981 183 1,164
Sep-17 91 181 29 491 149 940 922 18 210 963 187 1,150
Oct-17 95 181 32 479 145 922 901 21 204 945 180 1,126
Nov-17 91 172 30 485 140 911 891 20 205 943 173 1,116
Dec-17 98 174 30 492 140 930 911 19 205 953 182 1,135
Jan-18 107 171 31 493 139 937 919 18 278 1,029 187 1,215
Feb-18 114 173 28 511 141 969 952 17 323 1,112 180 1,292
Mar-18 112 173 28 525 145 989 976 13 218 1,019 188 1,207
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 72.3% 14.6% -6.7% 21.8% 19.8% 25.3% 26.7% -33.0% -13.8% 14.7% 22.3% 15.8%
% of Total3 9.3% 14.3% 2.3% 43.5% 12.0% 81.9% 80.8% 1.1% 18.1% 84.4% 15.6% 100.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 25
Geographical Specifications
1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak
Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is
comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD
Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-
OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England
(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,
Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid
-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West
(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West
(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,
Washington.
3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the
Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova
Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British
Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest
Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).
Additional Notes
1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),
whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.
Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as
NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined
products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo
by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified
quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.
Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the
loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the
responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is
priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the
transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is
similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF
transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is
greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.
Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock
changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.
Crude Stream
Producing
Country or
Region
API
Gravity
(@60° F)
Sulfur
Content
(%)
BBLs/Metric
Tonne
Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910
Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773
WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640
GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640
Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640
Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640
Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640
ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640
Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551
Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506
Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462
Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373
Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373
Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373
Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373
WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328
Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284
Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284
Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239
Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194
Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105
Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061
ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061
Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971
Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971
Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838
Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436
Crude Oil Qualities
For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6
