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CERI Crude Oil Report Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill
About CERI Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, registered charitable organization specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].
impacts of drilling and maximize production by exposing more of the reservoir to the wellbore. Typical of shale resources, like the Duvernay, oil and gas are trapped in low permeability rock and do not naturally flow upwards. To facilitate their rise, hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is used to pump fluid laden with proppant inside the wellbore to crack the rock and allow oil and gas to flow through (AER, n.d.). Figure 1: Duvernay Shale Study Area
Source: NEB, 2017.
To date, hydrocarbon activities in the Duvernay have been modest. In its exploratory days, oil companies exhibited great interest in the shale resource; studies estimate that around 1 million acres of land were purchased between late 2009 and 2011 for $1.4 billion (Macquarie Research, as quoted in Natural Gas Initiative, n.d.). Activities steadily continued until 2014, and the play witnessed a growth of 58% in the number of wells drilled between 2013 and 2014 (Young, 2018b). Early works in the Duvernay focused on its Willesden Green (southwest) and Kaybob areas for natural gas, condensate and oil production (Young, 2018b). However, the decrease in commodity value in 2014 brought about a lull and growth flattened. Roughly 550 horizontal wells have been drilled in the Duvernay since 2011 at a spacing of 305 to 366 mm, yielding 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Young, 2018a).
The Resurgence of Interest in the Duvernay: A Review of Pertinent Economic and Environmental Issues Archana Datta A rebound in the price of oil and emerging markets in Asia are breathing life back into hydrocarbon exploration and development in Alberta. Particularly, there is a resurgence of interest in the Duvernay play in west-central Alberta. BMO labelled the Duvernay the “hottest new play,” as their analysis reveals that more than half of the money – around $250 million – spent on land acquisition in Alberta was directed towards Duvernay in 2017 (Morgan, 2017). Duvernay resources cover about a fifth of the land in Alberta. The birth of the formation can be traced to the upper Devonian period (383-359 million years ago) when much of western Canada was under water, and Duvernay shale was deposited as organic-rich mud between the Leduc formation carbonate reefs. Around 100 million years ago, the formation began to be buried and heated, and oil and gas were generated in the process. Some of these valuable resources seeped into the adjacent Leduc Formation reefs, while others remained trapped in Duvernay shale. The formation varies greatly in its geology; it ranges from 0 m to 100 m in thickness and occurs from approximately 1 km below ground in the northeast sections to over 5 km near Alberta’s foothills. Shallower regions of the play are under-pressured and oil-rich, whereas the deeper areas are over-pressured and gas-rich, and in between areas are rich in natural gas liquids (NEB, 2017). To extract these resources, operators drill into the reservoir vertically and then horizontally in an L-shaped manner. This method helps to both minimize the surface
July 2018
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With the oil price climbing back up, growth is resuming. Natural gas production has mounted a staggering 1,200% from 2013 to 2017, and in the same period, oil has seen a growth of 320% (Young, 2018b). Large multinationals, including Shell, Chevron and Encana are driving the trend; however, many smaller operators are also expanding their activities. The oil-rich East Duvernay basin is garnering attention and operations are expected to expand considerably in 2018-2019. Considering the renewed enthusiasm in the Duvernay, some pertinent economic and environmental issues are coming to the forefront, a few of which are discussed below. Economics of the Duvernay In their recent assessment, the National Energy Board (NEB) (2017) estimated the Duvernay to hold 3.4 billion barrels of marketable crude oil, 76.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of marketable gas, and 6.3 billion barrels of marketable natural gas liquids (NGLs), including condensate, a highly valuable resource that is used to thin the consistency of bitumen from Alberta oil sands for easier transport. This makes the reserves larger than the Bakken (1.4 billion barrels) and Montney (1.1 billion barrels) formations in terms of marketable oil resources (NEB, 2017). However, not all the marketable resource is economic resource. The NEB differentiates between the two terms, as the former is indicative of geologic and technological conditions, whereas the latter reflects on the present economic conditions. In light of the 2017 well costs and oil and gas prices, only one-third of the marketable oil resource (about 1 billion boe) is economic, and 16% and 20% of marketable natural gas and NGL resources, respectively, are economic (NEB, 2018). Promisingly, though, the NEB notes that resource economics improve significantly with falling well costs. If companies can lower their well costs by 16% in 2018, figures for economic resource would jump to two-thirds of marketable oil resource and 40% of marketable natural gas resource (NEB, 2018). Analysis by Mark Young (Canoils & Evaluate Energy) and Darrell Stonehouse (Daily Oil Bulletin) (2018b) reveals that drilling and completion technologies have lowered capital costs in the Duvernay play. Duvernay benefits from some of the best available technologies, most competent operational teams (reallocated here due to the economic slowdown in the rest of Alberta), and existing pipeline infrastructure. Several indicators demonstrate operational efficiencies and lowering costs.
From 2014 to the end of 2017, lateral lengths improved by 42%, yielding more boe per well and driving down costs. Similarly, average drilling speed has more than tripled in the time period, due to improvements in drilling technologies and more pad development. Increased efficiency has lowered drilling costs (in terms of cost per meter drilled) by 38% between 2014 and 2017, and the trend can be expected to continue. Furthermore, in the comparatively less-explored East Duvernay, operational costs are expected to be further optimized, as operators can adopt best practices established in the region. Notably, operators in the East have slashed their cost of lateral drilling from $710/m in 2016 to $621/m in 2017 and increased the lengths of their lateral from 2,000 m in 2016 to 3,000 m in 2017. Furthermore, East Duvernay also benefits from having shallower vertical depths in comparison to the wells dug in the Kaybob area for extracting volatile oil and condensate. This difference in vertical depths provides a $600,000 cost advantage to the drilling in East Duvernay. The way operators develop the Duvernay will also ultimately determine how much profit it will generate. Close to 36% of the land in the Duvernay is held by four companies, namely Canadian Natural Resources, Royal Dutch Shell, Encana, and Repsol (Talisman) (NGI, n.d). Many of the active wells in the Duvernay are operated by the same large companies (Young, 2018b). Therefore, the internal strategies of these operators will carry significant implications for how the resource is developed. As large companies typically have several good properties in their portfolio, the Duvernay may have to compete with other reservoirs for the same financial investment. Furthermore, companies may decide to defer production from the Duvernay until the desired oil price hits the market or limit their production to maximize free cash flow over the long term. For instance, in July 2015, when faced with plummeting upstream profits, Royal Dutch Shell implemented austerity measures, comprising placing its production from Duvernay on hold until the commodity price recovered (NGI, 2017). In 2018, when the oil prices recovered to an extent, Shell announced its intentions of expanding its operations in the Fox Creek area of Duvernay by adding 36 new wells and having two operating rigs (Brandell, 2018).
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Figure 2: Number of Wells Drilled, 2015-2017
Source: Young, 2018b.
Environmental Issues of the Duvernay Among the environmental concerns around the Duvernay, three that stand out are water impacts associated with fracking, seismic activities and methane emissions. Hydraulic fracturing is a technique that dates to the 1950s. Presently, more than 180,000 wells in Alberta employ this method of pumping out natural resources (AER, 2018). Water is a critical component of this technique. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identifies five stages of the hydraulic fracturing water cycle: acquiring water for the process, mixing water with chemical additives to prepare fracking fluid, injecting fracking fluid into the production well, collecting wastewater, and managing wastewater (EPA, 2016). Studies indicate that hydraulic fracturing utilizes around 1,000 gallons of water per linear foot of horizontal well, or around 5-6 barrels of water for every barrel of crude oil produced (Verrastro, 2017). However, the exact magnitude of impacts hinges considerably on local conditions, technology, and variations in the method (including proppant mix). Additionally, many companies are finding ways of reusing and recycling waste water. It is therefore important to study, monitor, and develop local strategies to manage water impacts. The Alberta
Energy Regulator (AER) has developed several regulations to curb and control water-related impacts of fracking, including barring any fluid used for fracking purposes from being released into natural bodies of water, even if it has been treated. The AER further requires companies to keep daily records of the type and volume of additives in the fracking fluid; reveal the content of the fracking fluid when requested; use a steel casing and cement in the wellbore to provide a strong barrier between fluid and naturally-occurring water; ensure that fracking fluid used above the groundwater is non-toxic; and handle, store and dispose wastewater in accordance with AER’s regulations (AER, 2018). Injecting large amounts of water underground can increase fluid pressure below the surface and alter subsurface stresses. This may lead to increased seismic activities, especially in areas with pre-existing fault lines (Verrastro, 2017). Areas in and around hydraulic fracturing sites have experienced a rise in seismic activities. To study the exact nature of the impacts in Alberta, the Alberta Geological Survey installed over 50 monitoring systems in the province. The AER has also put in place several measures to monitor and manage induced seismicity in the Fox Creek area of the Duvernay as a result of hydraulic fracturing. AER requirements for companies include studying seismic impacts of fracturing before beginning operations, monitoring and reporting seismic activities within five kilometres of the well, preparing a response plan during a perceptible seismic event, and protecting subsurface and wellbore integrity during hydraulic fracturing (AER, n.d.). Methane emissions are another critical area of concern for extraction activities in the Duvernay. Although methane has a much shorter residency time in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, it is a far more potent gas in terms of its heat-trapping abilities. Alberta’s Climate Leadership Plan has a specific mandate to reduce methane emissions from upstream oil and gas operations by 45% below 2014 levels by 2025. The chief sources of methane emissions from Alberta’s upstream oil and gas industry are fugitive emissions and venting. These wasteful emissions are not only detrimental to the environment but also lost revenue for the operators. The AER has put in place specific directives targeting fugitive emissions and venting, including requirements for measuring, reporting and repairing any methane leaks. Directives are designed to provide flexibility to operators to innovate and pursue
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lowest-cost options for meeting emission reduction goals. To further incentivize this, the Alberta government provides companies with financial assistance, including exemption from carbon levy costs for the next five years (GoA, 2018). In addition to the three previously noted broad environmental impacts, there are a number of localized impacts of shale development that are vital to understand, monitor, and manage. Relatively few studies on this topic exist for the Duvernay. However, lessons can be extracted from elsewhere. The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) conducted assessments across nine US shale basins to uncover the cost and benefits of shale development. Findings revealed that costs – including factors like increased truck traffic, noise pollution, air pollution, higher crime rate – amounted to $1,000 to $1,600 annually per household. On the other hand, benefits – including an increase in average household income, rise in employment and an increase in housing prices – tallied to $1,300 to $1,900 per year, accruing a net positive impact for local communities. However, the authors warn against generalizing the results for all shale regions or even for all members of the same community, as the results are average figures, and differences in socio-economic factors between and within communities can affect how shale development benefits individuals. Furthermore, the authors also highlight a need for further research to understand the social and health impacts on communities. Accordingly, in another study conducted by EPIC, research demonstrated a discernible correlation between compromised infant health and proximity to
fracking sites. Specifically, babies born within two miles of fracking sites had a greater likelihood of low birth weights. The impact on infant health was highly localized with babies born within a half-mile radius showing the greatest probability (25%) of having low birth weights, and those born outside the two-mile radius showing no evidence of weakened health. The exact mechanism of how shale development sites impact human health is not clearly understood. However, the results clearly make a case for better monitoring and management of human health impacts of shale development. A quick glance into the Duvernay’s economics signals that the play can provide the necessary stimulus to reinvigorate Alberta’s economy. Specifically, with falling well costs through the incorporation of top-tier technologies and best practices, the Duvernay could produce much of its marketable resource of crude oil, gas, and natural gas liquids. The course taken by a few major companies, who hold the largest shares in the play, will determine how soon and how significantly the Duvernay will influence the economy in Alberta. At the same time, it is known that shale development can bring about adverse and irrevocable effects on the environment. The AER has measures in place to curb detrimental impacts on water resources, land seismicity, and methane emissions. However, continued commitment and effort will be critical from the operators and the AER to ensure responsible development of the Duvernay to minimize and mitigate any harmful impacts on the environment and human health and welfare.
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References AER. n.d. “Hydraulic Fracturing”. Alberta Energy Regulator.
Retrieved July 20, 2018. https://www.aer.ca/providing-information/by-topic/hydraulic-fracturing.
AER. n.d.“Seismic Activity”. Retrieved July 20, 2018. https://www.aer.ca/providing-information/by-topic/seismic-activity.
Bartik, A., Janet Currie, Michael Greenstone, and Christopher R. Knittel. 2018. “The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing”. Retrieved July 20, 2018 from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2692197.
Brandell, Taryn. 2018. Whitecourt Star. “Shell looking to drill more in Duvernay.” May 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2018. http://www.whitecourtstar.com/2018/04/30/shell-looking-to-drill-more-in-duvernay.
Currie, J., Michael Greenstone, and Katherine Meckel, Hydraulic fracturing and infant health: New evidence from Pennsylvania. Science Advances, 3 (12). Retrieved July 20, 2018, from http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/12/e1603021/tab-pdf.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2016. “Hydraulic Fracturing for Oil and Gas: Impacts from the Hydraulic Fracturing Water Cycle on Drinking Water Resources in the United States (Final Report).” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC. https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/hfstudy/recordisplay.cfm?deid=332990.
Government of Alberta. 2018. “Protecting Alberta jobs, cutting methane pollution”. Retrieved July 20, 2018. https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=55828C212C369-BDCB-0802-F1B7D21F8054EE6C.
Morgan, Geoffrey. 2017. “Oilpatch spending to ramp up in Canada's 'hottest new play,' led by Chevron”. Financial Post, November 8, 2017. https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/oilpatch-spending-to-ramp-up-in-canadas-hottest-new-play-led-by-chevron.
Natural Gas Initiative. n.d. “Information on the Duvernay Shale”. Retrieved July 2018, from http://www.naturalgasintel.com/duvernayinfo
Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). n.d. Duvernay Net Acreage Positions. Retrieved July 20,2018. http://www.naturalgasintel.com/duvernay-shale-acreage-positions
Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). 2015. Shell cuts 6500 Jobs Slashes Capex Prepares for Several Years of Low Prices. Retrieved July 20,2018. http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/103156-shell-cuts-6500-jobs-slashes-capex-prepares-for-several-years-of-low-prices.
NEB. 2017. “Duvernay Resource Assessment. Energy Briefing Note”. September 2017. Calgary, AB. National Energy Board. https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/rprt/2017dvrn/2017dvrn-eng.pdf.
NEB. 2018. “Market Snapshot: Economics of Duvernay Shale”. Retrieved July 20, 2018. https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2018/01-02cnmcsdvrnshl-eng.html.
Young, M., and Darrell Stonehouse. 2018a. “Duvernay vs. Eagle Ford: Is the Duvernay catching up to the prolific south Texas shale play?” Retrieved July 20, 2018. http://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2018/3/duvernay-enjoying-technological-leap-lessons-learned-eagle-ford/.
Young, M., and Darrell Stonehouse. 2018b. “Managing the Curve: Lower capital costs and improved productivity make the Duvernay liquids and oil play possible.” Retrieved July 20, 2018. http://www2.jwnenergy.com/l/105542/2018-05-25/3lhb3c.
Verrastro, F., Sarah Ladislaw, Adam Sieminski, and Andrew Stanley. 2017. “Impacts of Onshore Oil and Gas Development: Managing Societal and Environmental Risks.” Centre for Strategic and Integrated Studies. Washington, DC. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/170627_Verrastro_ImpactsOilGasDevelopment_Web.pdf?aRqK55AwVAON8Pa.QBVJqD5EIZG4eXVB.
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CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 10
World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)
OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)
2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
World Demand 96.2 97.7 99.1 100.5 96.3 97.9 98.3 98.4 98.4 98.8 99.3 100.0 99.2 100.3 100.9 101.5
OECD 47.0 47.3 47.7 47.8 46.9 47.0 47.6 47.9 47.9 47.1 47.7 48.1 47.6 47.3 48.1 48.3
non-OECD 49.2 50.4 51.5 52.7 49.5 50.9 50.7 50.5 50.5 51.7 51.6 52.0 51.6 53.0 52.8 53.2
World Supply 97.0 97.4 98.9 100.8 96.6 97.0 97.9 98.2 98.3 98.6 99.0 99.6 99.9 100.5 101.1 101.7
Non-OPEC 57.4 58.2 60.2 62.0 57.7 57.8 58.3 59.0 59.4 59.9 60.4 61.0 61.3 61.8 62.2 62.7
OPEC NGLs 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
OPEC Crude 28.4 27.9 -4.5 -4.5 32.1 32.3 32.7 32.3 32.0 31.7 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.9 32.0
Supply - Demand1 0.8 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2
OECD
Stocks (MMbbls) 2985 3030 3016 2970 2853 2816 2805 2791 2773 2804 2812 2819
Days Cover 64 64 63 62 60 60 59 58 58 59 58 58
Sustainable
Capacity Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
Saudi Arabia 12.20 9.92 10.03 10.46 2.28 2.17 1.74
Iran 3.75 3.82 3.82 3.79 -0.07 -0.07 -0.04
UAE 3.14 2.87 2.87 2.90 0.27 0.27 0.24
Kuwait 2.93 2.71 2.71 2.72 0.22 0.22 0.21
Qatar 0.67 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.07 0.06 0.05
Angola 1.78 1.50 1.51 1.45 0.28 0.27 0.33
Nigeria 1.70 1.59 1.47 1.46 0.11 0.23 0.24
Libya 0.65 0.99 0.97 0.71 -0.34 -0.32 -0.06
Algeria 1.13 0.99 1.04 1.05 0.14 0.09 0.08
Equatorial Guinea 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.02 0.01 0.01
Ecuador 0.56 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.04 0.03 0.03
Venezuela 2.20 1.41 1.36 1.30 0.79 0.84 0.90
Gabon 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.20 0.04 0.06 0.03
OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.08 27.23 27.22 27.32 3.85 3.86 3.76
Iraq1 4.66 4.41 4.47 4.55 0.25 0.19 0.11
Total OPEC 35.60 31.64 31.69 31.87 3.96 3.91 3.73
Production Spare Capacity vs Production
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 11
Data Appendix
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 12
A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)
A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)
Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-
tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip
Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward
prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75 -0.78
2016 42.28 42.15 42.01 44.80 -0.98
2017 50.29 50.27 50.17 51.80 -0.44
2Q 2017 49.45 49.76 50.08 51.66 -0.44
3Q 2017 45.89 46.22 46.87 48.05 -0.20
4Q 2017 52.90 52.67 51.53 52.86 -0.33
1Q 2018 61.16 60.98 60.80 61.15 0.06
2Q 2018 67.97 67.62 65.74 65.81 0.06
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 37.5% 35.9% 31.3% 27.4%
Jun-17 50.73 50.14 48.40 49.84 -0.35
Jul-17 43.23 44.06 47.11 48.32 -0.23
Aug-17 46.79 46.77 45.12 46.35 -0.21
Sep-17 47.64 47.84 48.40 49.46 -0.15
Oct-17 50.41 49.93 48.34 49.99 -0.46
Nov-17 51.47 51.60 51.17 52.44 -0.31
Dec-17 56.83 56.49 55.10 56.14 -0.21
Jan-18 58.09 57.57 57.42 58.07 -0.05
Feb-18 63.49 63.60 61.97 62.41 0.03
Mar-18 61.90 61.75 63.01 62.96 0.20
Apr-18 63.40 62.60 61.97 62.11 0.07
May-18 68.38 68.38 65.41 65.45 0.05
Jun-18 72.13 71.88 69.84 69.86 0.05
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 42.2% 43.4% 44.3% 40.2%
NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil
Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread
Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)
2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5
2016 138.4 138.7 136.9 133.2 -1.9 133.8 133.8 132.1 141.7 -1.6
2017 167.1 165.3 161.4 154.8 -0.2 166.7 166.5 164.0 170.7 -0.6
2Q 2017 162.0 162.6 163.0 155.5 -0.5 153.1 153.9 154.7 162.1 -0.6
3Q 2017 178.7 170.2 157.2 137.2 5.1 162.9 159.4 152.8 159.6 -0.5
4Q 2017 170.5 171.5 169.5 158.3 3.2 186.3 187.6 183.7 188.1 0.2
1Q 2018 182.2 183.4 178.4 187.3 -6.6 202.0 203.1 198.9 202.1 0.4
2Q 2018 210.2 210.0 206.0 197.8 -0.4 212.9 212.8 207.4 212.4 0.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 29.8% 29.1% 26.4% 27.2% 39.0% 38.3% 34.1% 31.1%
Jun-17 161.2 163.1 158.1 149.2 0.3 151.5 154.2 151.4 158.8 -0.6
Jul-17 151.5 149.5 148.2 132.1 0.8 147.6 145.2 142.6 150.4 -0.8
Aug-17 170.6 167.6 157.1 137.2 2.4 165.2 163.2 152.6 159.6 -0.5
Sep-17 214.0 193.6 166.3 142.2 12.0 175.8 169.9 163.1 168.9 -0.1
Oct-17 160.7 163.1 166.3 150.5 5.5 181.2 183.0 179.1 182.5 0.9
Nov-17 178.0 177.1 165.2 154.7 2.8 188.5 187.7 180.2 185.1 0.1
Dec-17 172.8 174.4 177.1 169.8 1.3 189.3 192.2 191.8 196.8 -0.3
Jan-18 179.9 179.5 172.1 180.7 -1.2 207.6 205.6 194.9 198.2 0.0
Feb-18 190.8 191.3 185.9 194.2 -0.7 206.9 208.2 207.8 209.7 0.9
Mar-18 175.8 179.6 177.3 186.9 -18.1 191.4 195.4 194.0 198.3 0.3
Apr-18 201.8 201.5 194.9 188.1 -1.1 202.8 202.2 193.2 199.2 -0.3
May-18 212.9 212.3 205.1 196.8 -0.4 216.7 215.9 207.4 211.6 0.8
Jun-18 216.0 216.3 218.1 208.5 0.3 219.1 220.3 221.5 226.6 0.5
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 34.0% 32.6% 37.9% 39.7% 44.6% 42.8% 46.3% 42.6%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 13
A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 3. As of August 2016, Western
Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.
Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas
2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24
2016 40.89 41.32 41.89 43.69 43.97 42.09 33.96 39.22 38.36 42.31 43.95 41.05
2017 52.68 53.20 53.40 54.25 54.57 53.35 47.69 51.68 50.07 54.67 54.64 49.07
2Q 2017 48.72 49.89 49.96 49.82 49.80 48.70 44.60 47.94 46.24 51.29 50.24 45.52
3Q 2017 50.01 50.45 50.65 52.08 52.69 51.34 45.97 49.04 47.99 52.96 52.30 46.36
4Q 2017 59.77 59.35 59.37 61.35 62.04 61.03 54.20 58.34 57.55 60.00 61.97 54.33
1Q 2018 65.28 63.87 64.24 66.73 67.48 65.11 57.92 63.37 61.66 65.93 67.66 59.32
2Q 2018 72.62 72.03 72.14 74.20 74.96 72.65 65.93 70.64 68.60 70.68 75.11 69.47
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 49.1% 44.4% 44.4% 48.9% 50.5% 49.2% 47.8% 47.3% 48.4% 37.8% 49.5% 52.6%
Jun-17 45.21 46.38 46.50 46.42 46.40 45.52 42.49 44.37 43.11 48.21 46.92 42.65
Jul-17 47.12 47.59 47.63 48.51 48.63 47.82 43.41 46.19 45.21 50.75 48.66 43.96
Aug-17 49.63 50.24 50.37 51.66 52.30 51.30 45.38 48.70 47.45 52.92 51.69 45.91
Sep-17 53.29 53.51 53.95 56.07 57.15 54.89 49.13 52.23 51.30 55.20 56.55 49.20
Oct-17 55.73 55.63 55.63 57.28 57.85 56.81 50.70 54.50 53.77 56.08 57.97 50.55
Nov-17 61.08 60.81 60.84 62.63 63.28 62.53 55.86 59.58 59.23 61.35 63.29 55.50
Dec-17 62.50 61.61 61.63 64.14 64.98 63.75 56.04 60.94 59.66 62.57 64.64 56.95
Jan-18 67.42 66.15 66.42 69.13 69.99 68.69 59.14 65.74 63.53 67.57 69.92 60.91
Feb-18 64.03 62.69 63.00 65.16 65.81 63.01 57.68 62.14 60.28 64.83 66.02 58.15
Mar-18 64.40 62.76 63.31 65.89 66.63 63.63 56.94 62.23 61.16 65.40 67.05 58.90
Apr-18 68.91 68.29 68.34 71.58 72.61 69.16 60.25 66.99 65.37 68.10 72.75 63.53
May-18 74.68 74.20 74.38 76.85 78.28 75.23 68.29 72.55 70.39 73.03 77.73 68.26
Jun-18 74.26 73.61 73.69 74.17 73.99 73.55 69.25 72.38 70.05 70.92 74.86 76.62
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 64.3% 58.7% 58.5% 59.8% 59.5% 61.6% 63.0% 63.1% 62.5% 47.1% 59.5% 79.6%
United States Canada Light vs. Heavy
ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS
Okla.
Sw.
Kans.
Sw.
Mich.
So.
Wyo.
Sw.
CDN
Sweet2CDN
Heavy3
2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71
2016 33.46 43.80 35.82 41.08 36.08 34.83 41.08 40.08 33.08 40.50 39.44 28.85
2017 44.08 55.37 47.12 48.40 43.40 42.50 48.40 47.48 40.40 48.22 48.26 39.25
2Q 2017 44.34 49.43 42.43 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.83 36.50 44.64 45.78 42.43
3Q 2017 41.90 54.02 45.38 46.17 41.17 41.33 46.17 45.08 38.17 45.81 45.57 37.70
4Q 2017 46.58 64.63 55.15 54.25 49.25 48.00 54.25 53.33 46.25 54.01 52.65 38.35
1Q 2018 54.38 70.84 60.58 61.42 56.42 55.17 61.42 60.42 53.42 61.13 57.16 37.05
2Q 2018 59.92 76.40 67.42 65.75 60.75 59.50 65.75 64.83 57.75 65.60 61.13 49.88
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 35.1% 54.5% 58.9% 47.8% 53.8% 55.6% 47.8% 47.9% 58.2% 47.0% 33.5% 17.6%
Jun-17 44.02 47.50 40.35 41.50 36.50 35.25 41.50 41.50 33.50 42.29 42.20 34.91
Jul-17 42.79 51.92 44.00 46.25 41.25 44.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 45.96 44.10 36.96
Aug-17 41.46 52.25 43.25 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 42.75 36.00 43.54 45.01 37.95
Sep-17 41.46 57.88 48.90 48.25 43.25 42.25 48.25 47.25 40.25 47.92 47.63 38.18
Oct-17 43.11 60.36 51.70 50.25 45.25 44.00 50.25 49.50 42.25 50.15 50.34 39.87
Nov-17 47.18 65.66 55.90 55.50 50.50 49.25 55.50 54.50 47.50 55.20 55.17 41.47
Dec-17 49.44 67.88 57.85 57.00 52.00 50.75 57.00 56.00 49.00 56.67 52.41 33.74
Jan-18 55.67 73.10 62.15 62.75 57.75 56.50 62.75 61.75 54.75 62.39 56.41 37.74
Feb-18 47.18 69.26 58.90 60.00 55.00 53.75 60.00 59.00 52.00 59.80 56.21 35.37
Mar-18 60.29 70.15 60.70 61.50 56.50 55.25 61.50 60.50 53.50 61.19 58.76 37.99
Apr-18 56.46 74.56 64.45 64.50 59.50 58.25 64.50 63.50 56.50 64.35 60.17 49.43
May-18 61.65 74.02 65.65 62.25 57.25 56.00 62.25 61.25 54.25 62.06 63.01 53.13
Jun-18 61.65 80.61 72.15 70.50 65.50 64.25 70.50 69.75 62.50 70.40 60.18 47.11
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 40.0% 69.7% 78.8% 69.9% 79.5% 82.3% 69.9% 68.1% 86.6% 66.5% 42.6% 34.9%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 14
A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)
Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny
Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Notes: 1. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 2. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.
Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour
Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff.
CDN
Sweet1CDN
Heavy2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.
2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.77 6.37 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25
2016 40.89 38.36 2.52 42.31 36.98 5.34 39.44 28.85 10.59 34.83 36.08 -1.25
2017 52.68 51.04 1.63 54.67 47.73 6.94 48.26 39.25 9.01 42.50 43.40 -0.90
2Q 2017 48.72 47.18 1.54 51.29 44.33 6.96 45.78 42.43 3.35 38.25 39.50 -1.25
3Q 2017 50.01 48.70 1.32 52.96 47.24 5.71 45.57 37.70 7.87 41.33 41.17 0.17
4Q 2017 59.77 57.83 1.94 60.00 53.93 6.07 52.65 38.35 14.30 48.00 49.25 -1.25
1Q 2018 65.28 62.78 2.51 65.93 58.14 7.79 57.16 37.05 20.12 55.17 56.42 -1.25
2Q 2018 72.62 70.34 2.28 70.68 61.52 9.16 61.13 49.88 11.25 59.50 60.75 -1.25
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 49.1% 49.1% 37.8% 38.8% 33.5% 17.6% 55.6% 53.8%
Jun-17 45.21 43.64 1.57 48.21 42.50 5.71 42.20 34.91 7.29 35.25 36.50 -1.25
Jul-17 47.12 45.76 1.36 50.75 45.15 5.60 44.10 36.96 7.14 44.00 41.25 2.75
Aug-17 49.63 48.55 1.08 52.92 46.91 6.01 45.01 37.95 7.06 37.75 39.00 -1.25
Sep-17 53.29 51.78 1.51 55.20 49.67 5.53 47.63 38.18 9.45 42.25 43.25 -1.00
Oct-17 55.73 53.99 1.74 56.08 50.26 5.82 50.34 39.87 10.47 44.00 45.25 -1.25
Nov-17 61.08 59.03 2.05 61.35 55.48 5.87 55.17 41.47 13.70 49.25 50.50 -1.25
Dec-17 62.50 60.47 2.03 62.57 56.04 6.53 52.41 33.74 18.67 50.75 52.00 -1.25
Jan-18 67.42 65.24 2.18 67.57 59.90 7.67 56.41 37.74 18.68 56.50 57.75 -1.25
Feb-18 64.03 61.60 2.43 64.83 57.42 7.41 56.21 35.37 20.84 53.75 55.00 -1.25
Mar-18 64.40 61.49 2.91 65.40 57.11 8.29 58.76 37.99 20.78 55.25 56.50 -1.25
Apr-18 68.91 66.47 2.44 68.10 58.29 9.81 60.17 49.43 10.74 58.25 59.50 -1.25
May-18 74.68 72.24 2.44 73.03 63.31 9.72 63.01 53.13 9.88 56.00 57.25 -1.25
Jun-18 74.26 72.30 1.96 70.92 62.97 7.95 60.18 47.11 13.08 64.25 65.50 -1.25
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 64.3% 65.7% 47.1% 48.2% 42.6% 34.9% 82.3% 79.5%
Spot Prices Differentials
WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket
2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16
2016 43.33 43.72 41.46 42.11 40.68 -1.44 0.82 0.17 1.59
2017 50.90 54.23 53.19 53.34 52.51 -3.95 -2.90 -3.05 -2.23
2Q 2017 48.11 49.58 49.71 48.46 48.59 -0.13 -0.26 0.99 0.85
3Q 2017 48.16 52.06 50.46 51.34 49.99 -6.17 -4.57 -5.45 -4.10
4Q 2017 55.35 61.35 59.34 61.03 59.43 -8.45 -6.44 -8.13 -6.53
1Q 2018 62.87 66.73 63.87 65.11 64.70 -5.57 -2.71 -3.95 -3.54
2Q 2018 67.97 74.20 72.02 72.75 71.92 -6.23 -4.05 -4.78 -3.95
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 41.3% 49.7% 44.9% 50.1% 48.0%
Jun-17 45.17 46.42 46.48 45.52 45.21 4.31 4.25 5.21 5.52
Jul-17 46.65 48.51 47.59 47.82 46.93 -5.28 -4.36 -4.59 -3.70
Aug-17 48.03 51.64 50.24 51.29 49.60 -4.85 -3.45 -4.50 -2.81
Sep-17 49.83 56.07 53.71 54.89 53.44 -8.43 -6.07 -7.25 -5.80
Oct-17 51.57 57.28 55.60 56.81 55.50 -6.87 -5.19 -6.40 -5.09
Nov-17 56.54 62.63 60.81 62.53 60.74 -11.16 -9.34 -11.06 -9.27
Dec-17 57.94 64.14 61.61 63.75 62.06 -7.31 -4.78 -6.92 -5.23
Jan-18 63.70 69.13 66.15 68.69 66.85 -11.04 -8.06 -10.60 -8.76
Feb-18 62.15 65.16 62.69 63.01 63.48 -1.67 0.80 0.48 0.01
Mar-18 62.76 65.89 62.76 63.63 63.76 -3.99 -0.86 -1.73 -1.86
Apr-18 66.32 71.58 68.26 69.46 68.43 -8.18 -4.86 -6.06 -5.03
May-18 69.89 76.85 74.20 75.23 74.11 -8.47 -5.82 -6.85 -5.73
Jun-18 67.70 74.17 73.61 73.55 73.22 -2.04 -1.48 -1.42 -1.09
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 49.9% 59.8% 58.4% 61.6% 62.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 15
A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)
A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)
Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status
Report.
Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes
Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3
2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55
2016 56.84 32.12 52.43 54.02 52.37 30.62 56.20 52.24 35.63
2017 68.09 46.25 65.59 66.37 64.60 45.53 68.01 65.73 49.97
2Q 2017 65.69 42.50 58.71 62.74 59.21 41.85 63.82 61.02 46.69
3Q 2017 69.74 45.40 66.61 65.49 63.39 45.78 66.52 64.27 48.45
4Q 2017 71.65 52.28 73.48 73.44 72.12 51.09 73.65 72.50 55.45
1Q 2018 76.82 54.61 79.81 82.58 76.68 52.82 77.58 79.30 57.15
2Q 2018 87.71 56.21 88.12 93.66 88.51 60.32 84.21 87.14 60.06
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 33.5% 32.3% 50.1% 49.3% 49.5% 44.1% 31.9% 42.8% 28.6%
Jun-17 61.83 41.01 54.46 60.04 55.65 40.90 59.78 57.54 45.33
Jul-17 65.79 43.89 60.07 60.78 59.09 43.52 61.76 61.05 46.32
Aug-17 70.77 44.85 66.44 65.64 62.25 45.40 67.51 63.51 47.84
Sep-17 72.51 47.56 73.33 70.04 68.89 48.44 70.43 68.49 51.37
Oct-17 69.29 48.32 69.53 66.56 68.65 48.79 70.04 68.61 52.56
Nov-17 73.70 54.14 73.92 73.35 74.13 53.27 75.59 73.14 57.59
Dec-17 71.95 54.39 76.99 80.40 73.59 51.21 75.32 75.75 56.20
Jan-18 78.46 56.92 82.70 85.60 78.94 54.41 78.61 81.70 58.85
Feb-18 75.18 54.15 78.48 82.80 72.45 52.04 77.02 77.95 56.56
Mar-18 76.82 52.75 78.26 79.34 78.64 52.00 77.12 78.25 56.05
Apr-18 85.02 52.55 85.16 90.68 85.49 55.61 81.50 84.04 56.56
May-18 90.91 52.55 91.00 96.58 91.30 62.64 87.60 90.27 67.07
Jun-18 87.20 63.52 88.21 93.71 88.75 62.70 83.53 87.12 56.56
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 41.0% 54.9% 62.0% 56.1% 59.5% 53.3% 39.7% 51.4% 24.8%
NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles
Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.
2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03
2016 139.08 128.35 135.14 133.18 124.92 131.75 145.38 138.67
2017 163.95 157.98 165.78 160.43 156.14 162.23 173.10 170.64
2Q 2017 153.20 143.63 150.57 152.40 140.57 147.53 171.40 154.87
3Q 2017 170.57 155.00 164.77 163.63 159.27 162.13 176.63 172.73
4Q 2017 176.73 179.77 188.63 170.37 174.53 182.47 174.77 191.50
1Q 2018 185.00 191.47 198.03 181.40 188.63 192.87 196.70 200.50
2Q 2018 205.13 211.20 215.17 201.93 208.67 210.40 221.47 220.90
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 33.9% 47.0% 42.9% 32.5% 48.4% 42.6% 29.2% 42.6%
Jun-17 144.50 133.20 141.70 143.20 129.50 138.60 161.90 146.00
Jul-17 156.20 142.30 152.10 151.80 141.70 148.60 166.90 157.00
Aug-17 168.80 151.90 163.10 163.80 156.10 160.10 180.70 169.70
Sep-17 186.70 170.80 179.10 175.30 180.00 177.70 182.30 191.50
Oct-17 171.50 170.70 179.90 165.20 165.90 175.60 176.10 186.30
Nov-17 183.00 182.30 191.60 175.70 176.00 185.10 183.60 197.50
Dec-17 175.70 186.30 194.40 170.20 181.70 186.70 164.60 190.70
Jan-18 189.90 201.70 207.40 185.70 195.20 199.60 194.40 205.60
Feb-18 181.70 185.30 193.70 176.50 184.90 189.50 187.70 196.30
Mar-18 183.40 187.40 193.00 182.00 185.80 189.50 208.00 199.60
Apr-18 199.50 203.70 207.90 196.50 201.50 202.90 221.30 215.40
May-18 212.90 218.70 223.00 209.10 215.50 218.10 229.50 228.80
Jun-18 203.00 211.20 214.60 200.20 209.00 210.20 213.60 218.50
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 40.5% 58.6% 51.4% 39.8% 61.4% 51.7% 31.9% 49.7%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 16
B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on
historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-
es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes
crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3
Demand
2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.5 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.7
2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.1 12.7 4.7 38.5 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.1
2015 24.6 13.8 8.1 46.5 22.5 12.4 4.6 39.5 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.1
2016 24.9 14.0 8.1 47.0 23.2 11.9 4.7 39.8 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.2
2017 25.0 14.3 8.1 47.3 24.1 11.4 4.7 40.3 6.2 3.7 10.0 97.7
2Q 2016 24.5 13.9 7.7 46.1 23.4 12.0 4.5 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.7
3Q 2016 25.1 14.4 7.8 47.3 22.7 12.3 4.9 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8
4Q 2016 24.8 14.2 8.4 47.4 23.3 11.6 4.8 39.7 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.8
1Q 2017 24.6 13.8 8.5 46.9 23.7 11.2 4.5 39.5 6.2 3.7 10.0 96.3
2Q 2017 25.1 14.3 7.6 47.0 24.4 11.6 4.7 40.8 6.2 3.7 10.0 97.9
3Q 2017 25.1 14.7 7.8 47.6 23.7 12.0 5.0 40.8 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.3
4Q 2017 25.2 14.4 8.3 47.9 24.3 11.1 4.8 40.3 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.4
1Q 2018 25.3 14.1 8.5 47.9 24.7 10.7 4.6 40.0 6.5 3.8 10.4 98.4
2Q 2018 25.2 14.3 7.6 47.1 25.2 11.2 4.8 41.2 6.5 3.8 10.4 98.8
Supply
2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 30.2 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.2
2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 7.7 7.6 13.9 30.2 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.6
2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.9 7.7 14.1 30.7 28.2 8.7 38.1 96.5
2016 19.5 3.5 0.4 24.6 7.6 7.5 14.2 30.4 30.1 7.2 39.6 97.0
2017 20.3 3.5 0.4 25.4 7.4 7.5 14.4 30.4 29.7 7.4 39.2 97.4
2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.1 7.6 7.4 14.1 30.2 29.8 8.0 39.9 96.1
3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.3 7.4 7.7 14.0 30.2 30.6 7.7 39.5 96.9
4Q 2016 19.7 3.6 0.4 25.0 7.4 7.7 14.6 30.7 30.8 7.3 40.0 98.2
1Q 2017 19.9 3.7 0.4 25.2 7.4 7.6 14.4 30.5 29.6 7.2 38.9 96.6
2Q 2017 19.8 3.5 0.4 24.9 7.3 7.5 14.3 30.2 29.7 7.3 39.2 97.0
3Q 2017 20.2 3.4 0.4 25.2 7.2 7.6 14.3 30.2 29.7 7.7 39.6 97.9
4Q 2017 21.2 3.4 0.4 26.2 7.2 7.5 14.4 30.2 29.6 7.4 39.2 98.2
1Q 2018 21.7 3.5 0.4 27.0 7.2 7.6 14.5 30.3 29.6 7.2 38.9 98.3
2Q 2018 21.9 3.3 0.4 26.8 7.1 7.8 14.5 30.5 30.0 6.7 38.7 98.5
Balance
2013 -7.0 -10.3 -7.8 -23.9 -13.0 -4.3 9.3 -7.0 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5
2014 -5.1 -10.2 -7.6 -21.7 -13.4 -5.1 9.2 -8.3 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.5
2015 -4.6 -10.3 -7.6 -21.4 -14.6 -4.7 9.5 -8.8 22.4 5.3 28.9 1.4
2016 -5.4 -10.5 -7.7 -22.4 -15.6 -4.4 9.5 -9.4 24.1 3.7 30.0 0.8
2017 -4.7 -10.8 -7.7 -21.9 -16.7 -3.9 9.7 -9.9 23.4 3.7 29.2 -0.3
2Q 2016 -5.5 -10.5 -7.3 -22.0 -15.8 -4.6 9.6 -9.7 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.4
3Q 2016 -5.8 -11.1 -7.4 -23.0 -15.3 -4.6 9.1 -9.7 24.6 4.2 29.9 0.1
4Q 2016 -5.1 -10.6 -8.0 -22.4 -15.9 -3.9 9.8 -8.9 24.8 3.7 30.4 1.4
1Q 2017 -4.7 -10.1 -8.1 -21.7 -16.3 -3.6 9.9 -9.0 23.4 3.5 28.9 0.3
2Q 2017 -5.3 -10.8 -7.2 -22.1 -17.1 -4.1 9.6 -10.6 23.5 3.7 29.2 -0.9
3Q 2017 -4.9 -11.3 -7.4 -22.4 -16.5 -4.4 9.3 -10.6 23.5 4.0 29.6 -0.4
4Q 2017 -4.0 -11.0 -7.9 -21.7 -17.1 -3.6 9.6 -10.1 23.4 3.7 29.2 -0.2
1Q 2018 -3.6 -10.6 -8.1 -20.9 -17.5 -3.1 9.9 -9.6 23.1 3.4 28.5 -0.1
2Q 2018 -3.3 -11.0 -7.2 -20.3 -18.1 -3.4 9.7 -10.7 23.5 2.9 28.2 -0.3
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 17
B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)
B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve
estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All
stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2015 19.98 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.92 8.07 14.03 30.02 28.16 8.68 38.14 92.08
2016 19.48 3.52 0.43 23.42 7.57 7.55 14.24 29.34 30.13 7.23 39.59 92.35
2017 20.30 3.49 0.39 24.18 7.33 7.59 14.36 29.28 29.67 7.41 39.21 92.67
2Q 2017 19.76 3.49 0.40 23.65 7.36 7.62 14.36 29.34 29.72 7.33 39.20 92.19
3Q 2017 20.17 3.37 0.41 23.95 7.27 7.65 14.26 29.19 29.72 7.69 39.58 92.72
4Q 2017 21.11 3.42 0.38 24.90 7.26 7.67 14.37 29.31 29.65 7.41 39.17 93.38
1Q 2018 21.74 3.55 0.41 25.70 7.24 7.59 14.45 29.29 29.61 7.24 38.90 93.89
2Q 2018 21.89 3.31 0.38 25.58 7.16 7.74 14.49 29.39 30.01 6.71 38.66 93.63
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.8% -5.2% -5.0% 8.2% -2.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% -8.4% -1.4% 1.6%
Jun-17 19.95 3.37 0.41 23.73 7.52 7.65 14.33 29.50 29.81 7.56 39.51 92.74
Jul-17 20.25 3.48 0.42 24.14 7.36 7.67 14.36 29.40 29.78 7.88 39.84 93.38
Aug-17 19.87 3.37 0.42 23.66 7.28 7.63 14.19 29.10 29.75 7.65 39.58 92.34
Sep-17 20.05 3.25 0.41 23.72 7.25 7.72 14.28 29.26 29.76 7.60 39.53 92.51
Oct-17 20.09 3.50 0.41 24.01 7.24 7.72 14.29 29.26 29.69 7.52 39.42 92.69
Nov-17 20.45 3.52 0.42 24.38 7.20 7.70 14.36 29.26 29.64 7.53 39.29 92.93
Dec-17 21.15 3.27 0.37 24.78 7.22 7.73 14.44 29.39 29.65 7.25 38.99 93.16
Jan-18 21.16 3.61 0.41 25.18 7.25 7.70 14.43 29.39 29.68 7.34 39.08 93.65
Feb-18 21.32 3.58 0.41 25.31 7.16 7.65 14.44 29.24 29.63 7.32 39.01 93.56
Mar-18 22.09 3.43 0.41 25.92 7.23 7.66 14.45 29.33 29.63 7.06 38.70 93.95
Apr-18 21.87 3.53 0.40 25.80 7.14 7.74 14.44 29.32 29.66 6.94 38.57 93.69
May-18 22.01 3.15 0.38 25.53 7.18 7.68 14.48 29.34 29.87 6.75 38.62 93.49
Jun-18 21.79 3.25 0.38 25.42 7.15 7.83 14.55 29.52 30.48 6.39 38.80 93.74
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.2% -3.6% -7.3% 7.1% -4.9% 2.4% 1.5% 0.1% 2.3% -15.5% -1.8% 1.1%
R/P Ratio2 28.6 11.1 29.6 26.4 15.7 21.5 27.8 23.2 72.1 172.2 85.0 49.9
Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD
Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2
2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015
2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985
2017 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853
1Q 2017 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030
2Q 2017 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016
3Q 2017 625 748 1,572 338 555 965 198 172 433 1,161 1,475 2,970
4Q 2017 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853
1Q 2018 585 703 1,468 344 546 970 161 161 378 1,090 1,410 2,816
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -16.0% -4.5% -8.7% -4.3% -7.1% -4.8% -14.6% 3.7% -6.3% -12.4% -4.7% -7.1%
May-17 671 762 1,619 359 572 1,006 198 170 432 1,228 1,504 3,057
Jun-17 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016
Jul-17 646 755 1,591 364 565 1,004 197 176 437 1,206 1,495 3,031
Aug-17 625 756 1,581 346 573 990 195 182 443 1,166 1,511 3,014
Sep-17 625 748 1,572 338 555 965 198 172 433 1,161 1,475 2,970
Oct-17 617 727 1,542 335 540 948 188 183 435 1,140 1,450 2,926
Nov-17 610 723 1,524 347 531 953 188 176 427 1,145 1,430 2,903
Dec-17 580 736 1,498 330 543 943 189 165 412 1,098 1,444 2,853
Jan-18 581 723 1,481 334 574 985 186 163 409 1,101 1,459 2,876
Feb-18 582 718 1,473 340 564 981 184 160 402 1,105 1,442 2,856
Mar-18 585 703 1,468 344 546 970 161 161 378 1,090 1,410 2,816
Apr-18 591 697 1,467 352 535 971 163 165 388 1,106 1,397 2,827
May-18 594 718 1,491 351 525 959 163 165 390 1,108 1,407 2,841
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.4% -5.8% -7.9% -2.3% -8.3% -4.6% -17.8% -2.8% -9.8% -9.8% -6.4% -7.1%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 18
B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)
Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on
spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12
Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Gabon Total1 Iraq2
2015 10.16 2.85 2.93 2.79 0.65 1.76 1.77 0.40 1.11 2.46 0.54 0.23 27.65 4.00
2016 10.42 3.55 3.05 2.88 0.65 1.71 1.47 0.39 1.11 2.24 0.55 0.23 28.38 4.42
2017 9.96 3.80 2.93 2.71 0.61 1.64 1.53 0.83 1.05 1.97 0.53 0.20 27.88 4.47
2Q 2017 9.97 3.77 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.64 1.49 0.71 1.06 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.81 4.50
3Q 2017 9.99 3.83 2.94 2.70 0.60 1.67 1.62 0.94 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.20 28.20 4.48
4Q 2017 9.99 3.81 2.90 2.70 0.61 1.62 1.60 1.00 1.02 1.75 0.53 0.21 27.86 4.45
1Q 2018 9.95 3.81 2.84 2.70 0.60 1.55 1.66 1.01 1.01 1.54 0.52 0.21 27.54 4.45
2Q 2018 10.14 3.81 2.88 2.71 0.61 1.49 1.51 0.89 1.03 1.36 0.53 0.19 27.25 4.48
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.7% 1.1% -1.7% 0.0% -1.6% -9.1% 1.3% 25.4% -2.8% -33.7% 0.0% -5.0% -2.0% -0.4%
Jun-17 10.05 3.79 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.57 0.84 1.06 2.04 0.53 0.20 28.11 4.50
Jul-17 10.03 3.81 2.94 2.70 0.61 1.67 1.64 1.01 1.07 2.03 0.54 0.22 28.40 4.50
Aug-17 9.96 3.84 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.66 0.88 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.18 28.15 4.49
Sep-17 9.97 3.84 2.93 2.71 0.58 1.66 1.61 0.92 1.06 1.94 0.54 0.19 28.08 4.49
Oct-17 10.05 3.78 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.58 0.99 1.00 1.89 0.53 0.21 28.09 4.40
Nov-17 9.97 3.80 2.90 2.71 0.61 1.62 1.64 0.97 1.01 1.84 0.54 0.20 27.94 4.42
Dec-17 9.97 3.80 2.87 2.70 0.61 1.59 1.61 1.00 1.04 1.61 0.52 0.20 27.65 4.49
Jan-18 9.98 3.80 2.85 2.70 0.62 1.57 1.68 1.00 1.02 1.61 0.52 0.21 27.69 4.48
Feb-18 9.98 3.82 2.80 2.70 0.60 1.57 1.70 1.02 1.04 1.55 0.51 0.20 27.62 4.48
Mar-18 9.92 3.81 2.87 2.70 0.60 1.52 1.62 1.00 0.98 1.47 0.52 0.21 27.35 4.44
Apr-18 9.92 3.82 2.87 2.71 0.60 1.50 1.59 0.99 0.99 1.41 0.52 0.19 27.23 4.41
May-18 10.03 3.82 2.87 2.71 0.61 1.51 1.47 0.97 1.04 1.36 0.53 0.17 27.22 4.47
Jun-18 10.46 3.79 2.90 2.72 0.62 1.45 1.46 0.71 1.05 1.30 0.53 0.20 27.32 4.55
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.1% 0.0% -1.0% 0.4% 0.0% -12.7% -7.0% -15.5% -0.9% -36.3% 0.0% 0.0% -2.8% 1.1%
Persian Gulf
Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD
Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.
2015 19.1 87.6 5.65 12.1 84.6 7.28 6.7 90.7 0.62 37.9 86.0
2016 18.9 85.6 4.72 11.9 85.2 4.28 6.9 92.5 0.18 37.7 85.5
2017 19.3 87.3 6.36 12.3 87.5 5.95 7.0 94.5 1.72 38.6 87.5
1Q 2017 18.8 85.0 5.38 12.0 85.6 4.87 7.2 97.4 1.0 38.0 86.2
2Q 2017 20.0 90.3 6.09 12.0 85.6 6.17 6.6 89.2 1.2 38.6 87.5
3Q 2017 19.2 87.0 9.15 12.7 90.3 7.59 7.0 94.5 3.0 38.9 88.2
4Q 2017 19.2 86.9 4.80 12.4 88.5 5.16 7.2 96.8 1.7 38.8 88.0
1Q 2018 18.9 85.6 3.32 11.9 85.1 3.49 7.2 96.4 1.06 38.0 86.2
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.8% -38.2% -0.5% -28.4% -1.0% 3.9% 0.0%
May-17 20.1 90.9 6.00 11.8 84.4 5.64 6.7 89.9 0.5 38.6 87.5
Jun-17 20.0 90.5 6.17 12.0 85.8 6.57 6.4 85.6 2.1 38.4 87.1
Jul-17 20.0 90.5 7.98 12.6 89.5 6.80 7.1 95.1 2.6 39.6 89.8
Aug-17 19.7 89.3 9.56 12.8 91.2 7.79 7.2 96.7 2.9 39.7 90.0
Sep-17 18.0 81.3 9.92 12.6 90.1 8.17 6.8 91.6 3.4 37.4 84.8
Oct-17 18.5 83.5 5.89 12.4 88.1 5.92 6.8 92.2 2.1 37.7 85.4
Nov-17 19.4 87.5 5.19 12.4 88.1 5.77 7.2 96.6 1.6 38.9 88.2
Dec-17 19.8 89.7 3.32 12.5 89.3 3.80 7.5 101.6 1.5 39.9 90.5
Jan-18 19.1 86.6 3.63 12.5 88.8 3.49 7.4 99.6 0.5 39.0 88.4
Feb-18 18.4 83.3 3.63 11.9 85.1 4.26 7.2 97.2 1.5 37.6 85.1
Mar-18 19.2 87.0 2.71 11.4 81.5 2.71 6.9 92.6 1.2 37.5 85.0
Apr-18 19.0 85.9 4.24 11.8 83.9 4.26 6.9 92.8 0.0 37.6 85.3
May-18 19.3 87.2 5.62 11.6 82.5 4.65 6.8 91.4 0.2 37.6 85.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.0% -6.3% -2.3% -18% 1.6% -53.3% -2.5%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 19
C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-
es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-
conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
United States1 East Mid-West
Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58 -5.17 3.63 5.01 -1.38
2016 14.61 19.63 4.87 0.13 0.47 5.42 -4.94 3.63 5.13 -1.50
2017 15.35 19.87 3.73 -0.36 0.56 5.65 -5.10 3.80 5.07 -1.27
1Q 2017 14.78 19.49 4.26 0.02 0.51 5.55 -5.03 3.62 5.03 -1.41
2Q 2017 15.12 20.01 4.25 -0.21 0.54 5.57 -5.03 3.70 5.06 -1.36
3Q 2017 15.29 19.92 3.82 -0.33 0.56 5.65 -5.09 3.83 5.02 -1.20
4Q 2017 16.21 20.06 2.59 -0.90 0.61 5.85 -5.25 4.04 5.17 -1.13
1Q 2018 16.56 20.22 3.04 -0.36 0.59 5.97 -5.39 4.04 4.99 -0.95
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.1% 3.8% -28.8% 14.3% 7.7% 11.7% -0.8%
May-17 15.19 20.02 4.49 0.17 0.55 5.49 -4.94 3.71 5.11 -1.40
Jun-17 15.19 20.49 4.09 -0.82 0.56 5.79 -5.23 3.74 5.20 -1.46
Jul-17 15.27 20.02 3.62 -0.36 0.56 5.63 -5.07 3.74 4.85 -1.11
Aug-17 15.23 20.16 4.41 -0.38 0.56 5.87 -5.31 3.91 5.23 -1.32
Sep-17 15.37 19.58 3.44 -0.26 0.56 5.45 -4.89 3.83 4.98 -1.15
Oct-17 15.89 19.81 2.50 -1.13 0.59 5.70 -5.11 4.00 5.20 -1.20
Nov-17 16.50 20.28 2.63 -0.69 0.62 5.92 -5.30 4.10 5.33 -1.23
Dec-17 16.24 20.08 2.64 -0.89 0.61 5.94 -5.33 4.02 4.97 -0.95
Jan-18 16.12 20.46 3.66 -0.50 0.59 6.24 -5.66 4.00 5.09 -1.09
Feb-18 16.63 19.62 2.74 -0.14 0.59 5.77 -5.18 4.05 4.91 -0.87
Mar-18 16.95 20.57 2.72 -0.44 0.59 5.92 -5.33 4.08 4.97 -0.89
Apr-18 26.85 19.94 -7.18 0.08 0.58 5.84 -5.26 4.15 4.85 -0.70
May-18 17.11 20.36 2.71 0.21 0.62 5.59 -4.98 4.22 5.33 -1.11
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.6% 1.7% -39.6% 12.2% 1.9% 13.8% 4.4%
% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 3.6% 27.5% 24.7% 26.2%
South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products
Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91 -1.59
2016 8.14 5.39 2.75 1.07 0.71 0.35 1.30 2.99 -1.68
2017 8.59 5.36 3.23 1.14 0.71 0.43 1.27 3.08 -1.81
1Q 2017 8.30 5.30 3.01 1.04 0.69 0.35 1.30 2.92 -1.62
2Q 2017 8.49 5.53 2.96 1.10 0.72 0.38 1.28 3.14 -1.86
3Q 2017 8.52 5.29 3.23 1.17 0.74 0.43 1.22 3.22 -2.00
4Q 2017 9.03 5.30 3.73 1.25 0.69 0.56 1.29 3.04 -1.76
1Q 2018 9.37 5.51 3.86 1.27 0.69 0.58 1.27 3.05 -1.78
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.9% 4.0% 21.9% 0.1% -2.6% 4.4%
May-17 8.55 5.62 2.93 1.11 0.73 0.38 1.28 3.08 -1.80
Jun-17 8.53 5.56 2.97 1.11 0.74 0.37 1.24 3.21 -1.96
Jul-17 8.69 5.56 3.12 1.12 0.78 0.35 1.17 3.20 -2.03
Aug-17 8.38 4.97 3.41 1.17 0.77 0.40 1.22 3.32 -2.10
Sep-17 8.49 5.33 3.16 1.21 0.67 0.54 1.27 3.15 -1.88
Oct-17 8.78 5.02 3.77 1.23 0.72 0.51 1.28 3.16 -1.88
Nov-17 9.21 5.45 3.76 1.27 0.68 0.59 1.30 2.90 -1.61
Dec-17 9.09 5.44 3.65 1.24 0.67 0.57 1.29 3.07 -1.78
Jan-18 8.98 5.49 3.49 1.26 0.72 0.55 1.29 2.93 -1.64
Feb-18 9.43 5.23 4.20 1.26 0.68 0.58 1.30 3.03 -1.74
Mar-18 9.70 5.81 3.89 1.29 0.69 0.60 1.23 3.19 -1.96
Apr-18 9.73 5.67 4.07 1.30 0.64 0.67 1.27 2.94 -1.67
May-18 9.71 5.68 4.03 1.29 0.67 0.62 1.27 3.08 -1.81
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.5% 1.1% 16.7% -7.7% -0.3% 0.1%
% of Total2 56.7% 27.9% 7.6% 3.3% 7.4% 15.1%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 20
C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic
Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply
Monthly.
Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum
Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39
2016 9.33 1.61 3.88 0.36 17.17 2.49 19.63
2017 9.32 1.68 3.94 0.36 17.28 2.49 19.87
1Q 2017 8.95 1.60 3.95 0.36 16.68 2.79 19.49
2Q 2017 9.53 1.68 3.91 0.37 17.56 2.34 20.01
3Q 2017 9.56 1.71 3.87 0.30 17.59 2.23 19.92
4Q 2017 9.23 1.73 4.02 0.40 17.29 2.59 20.06
1Q 2018 9.00 1.63 4.18 0.28 16.87 3.10 20.22
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.6% 2.4% 5.8% -22.6% 1.1% 11.2% 3.8%
May-17 9.59 1.67 3.97 0.37 17.67 2.40 20.02
Jun-17 9.77 1.76 3.97 0.42 18.05 2.13 20.49
Jul-17 9.57 1.73 3.71 0.27 17.53 2.20 20.02
Aug-17 9.77 1.77 3.99 0.34 18.03 2.15 20.16
Sep-17 9.33 1.64 3.92 0.31 17.22 2.35 19.58
Oct-17 9.35 1.71 3.97 0.36 17.25 2.23 19.81
Nov-17 9.14 1.72 4.17 0.43 17.47 2.50 20.28
Dec-17 9.20 1.76 3.93 0.39 17.15 3.05 20.08
Jan-18 8.74 1.59 4.39 0.34 16.91 3.12 20.46
Feb-18 8.82 1.60 3.96 0.28 16.32 3.12 19.62
Mar-18 9.45 1.72 4.17 0.22 17.38 3.07 20.57
Apr-18 9.19 0.01 4.01 0.41 17.22 2.53 19.94
May-18 9.55 1.71 4.27 0.31 17.84 2.22 20.36
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.4% 2.2% 7.7% -15.2% 1.0% -7.2% 1.7%
Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3
2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325
2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330
2017 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292
1Q 2017 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313
2Q 2017 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306
3Q 2017 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286
4Q 2017 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292
1Q 2018 157 293 1,221 44 146 1,862 1,089 23 40 130 35 288
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -16.6% -10.9% -7.9% -5.0% 3.0% -8.4% -11.4% 6.4% -4.5% -13.7% -14.1% -7.8%
May-17 196 338 1,311 46 148 2,039 1,201 22 44 154 40 318
Jun-17 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306
Jul-17 186 333 1,299 42 138 1,998 1,161 23 41 151 34 303
Aug-17 180 331 1,297 42 136 1,986 1,138 25 40 148 35 297
Sep-17 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286
Oct-17 164 333 1,265 41 140 1,943 1,128 23 42 130 32 273
Nov-17 170 317 1,247 43 145 1,923 1,114 24 41 133 32 275
Dec-17 172 308 1,227 43 144 1,895 1,084 25 41 146 29 292
Jan-18 170 292 1,228 42 147 1,879 1,084 25 43 141 32 295
Feb-18 169 286 1,233 44 144 1,876 1,089 25 43 139 33 295
Mar-18 157 293 1,221 44 146 1,862 1,089 23 40 130 35 288
Apr-18 160 299 1,216 45 145 1,864 1,099 23 41 121 32 278
May-18 165 300 1,213 45 147 1,870 1,093 24 41 115 32 272
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -15.6% -11.3% -7.4% -2.6% -0.7% -8.3% -9.0% 8.6% -6.8% -25.1% -20.2% -14.4%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 21
C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA
Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude
oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
OPEC
Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf
2015 2.81 0.07 0.73 -0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50
2016 2.93 -0.21 0.73 -0.23 0.41 1.77 4.87 0.72 1.10 0.23 3.23 1.74
2017 3.18 -0.38 0.34 -0.35 0.52 1.74 3.73 0.60 0.95 0.33 3.16 1.73
1Q 2017 3.41 -0.31 0.49 -0.27 0.51 2.00 4.26 0.67 1.28 0.29 3.41 2.00
2Q 2017 3.06 -0.18 0.38 -0.27 0.51 1.93 4.25 0.67 1.09 0.31 3.44 1.94
3Q 2017 3.03 -0.49 0.35 -0.22 0.50 1.51 3.82 0.58 0.73 0.31 2.99 1.50
4Q 2017 3.23 -0.54 0.12 -0.63 0.54 1.52 2.59 0.46 0.69 0.40 2.80 1.48
1Q 2018 3.30 0.22 0.81 -0.36 0.38 1.52 5.16 0.44 0.71 0.27 2.58 1.52
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.4% -172% 64.4% 35.8% -25.0% -24.1% 21.1% -34.5% -45.0% -5.4% -24.2% -24.2%
May-17 3.21 -0.07 0.34 -0.36 0.48 1.93 4.49 0.69 1.11 0.29 3.45 1.94
Jun-17 2.91 -0.27 0.20 -0.28 0.58 1.80 4.09 0.56 1.02 0.31 3.37 1.80
Jul-17 2.85 -0.42 0.36 -0.41 0.44 1.75 3.62 0.62 0.79 0.24 3.23 1.77
Aug-17 3.16 -0.42 0.49 -0.08 0.62 1.37 4.41 0.55 0.74 0.39 3.00 1.36
Sep-17 3.07 -0.63 0.18 -0.18 0.44 1.40 3.44 0.58 0.67 0.29 2.75 1.36
Oct-17 3.27 -0.47 0.09 -0.71 0.59 1.53 2.50 0.53 0.57 0.43 2.96 1.47
Nov-17 3.00 -0.56 0.20 -0.51 0.58 1.57 2.62 0.47 0.78 0.46 2.85 1.55
Dec-17 3.42 -0.60 0.08 -0.66 0.46 1.46 2.64 0.40 0.72 0.30 2.60 1.42
Jan-18 3.50 -0.69 0.53 -0.44 0.57 1.55 3.66 0.42 0.74 0.33 2.76 1.55
Feb-18 3.19 0.65 0.99 -0.26 0.40 1.42 5.89 0.41 0.63 0.37 2.49 1.42
Mar-18 3.19 0.70 0.92 -0.38 0.18 1.59 5.94 0.49 0.75 0.13 2.50 1.59
Apr-18 3.39 0.56 0.93 -0.50 0.38 1.79 6.49 0.56 0.89 0.26 3.23 1.78
May-18 3.42 -0.37 0.25 -0.61 0.24 1.45 2.71 0.44 0.85 0.09 2.32 1.45
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.6% 435% -26.4% 70.4% -49.7% -24.9% -39.5% -35.5% -23.4% -70% -32.8% -25.1%
% of Total3 126.2% -13.6% 9.3% -22.3% 9.0% 53.3% 100.0% 16.4% 31.3% 3.2% 85.4% 53.5%
Region of Origin
PAD District U.S. Major Producers
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2
2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50
2016 0.05 1.71 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.95 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.25 1.59
2017 0.05 1.68 5.74 0.68 0.99 9.14 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.38 1.68
1Q 2017 0.04 1.63 5.69 0.65 1.05 9.06 0.53 0.52 0.15 3.26 1.76
2Q 2017 0.04 1.62 5.58 0.63 1.00 8.87 0.51 0.48 0.14 3.25 1.68
3Q 2017 0.05 1.68 5.81 0.68 0.96 9.17 0.46 0.49 0.14 3.45 1.69
4Q 2017 0.05 1.79 5.88 0.75 0.97 9.44 0.48 0.49 0.13 3.57 1.60
1Q 2018 0.06 1.92 6.42 0.82 1.02 10.23 0.52 0.49 0.13 4.00 1.65
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 27.1% 17.9% 12.8% 26.5% -3.1% 12.9% -1.2% -5.2% -9.1% 22.8% -6.5%
May-17 0.04 1.65 5.73 0.65 1.02 9.10 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.30 1.76
Jun-17 0.05 1.67 5.68 0.67 1.02 9.08 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.35 1.66
Jul-17 0.05 1.67 5.78 0.68 1.00 9.17 0.51 0.49 0.14 3.43 1.66
Aug-17 0.05 1.62 5.56 0.65 0.92 8.80 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.34 1.58
Sep-17 0.05 1.74 6.10 0.71 0.94 9.55 0.44 0.51 0.14 3.59 1.82
Oct-17 0.05 1.75 5.74 0.73 0.94 9.20 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.37 1.69
Nov-17 0.05 1.76 5.94 0.76 0.97 9.48 0.48 0.49 0.13 3.57 1.65
Dec-17 0.06 1.86 5.95 0.77 0.99 9.64 0.51 0.49 0.13 3.77 1.45
Jan-18 0.06 1.83 6.10 0.76 0.97 9.71 0.49 0.47 0.13 3.77 1.61
Feb-18 0.06 2.07 6.91 0.88 1.09 11.02 0.57 0.53 0.15 4.35 1.71
Mar-18 0.05 1.87 6.25 0.80 0.99 9.96 0.51 0.48 0.12 3.89 1.62
Apr-18 0.05 1.76 6.10 0.75 0.93 9.58 0.48 0.45 0.12 3.74 1.61
May-18 0.05 1.91 6.70 0.43 0.99 10.47 0.51 0.48 0.13 4.17 1.70
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 21.0% 15.5% 16.8% -33.2% -3.0% 15.1% -2.6% -3.5% -8.0% 26.1% -3.7%
R/P Ratio3 8.1 11.5 8.4 18.6 9.8 9.2 8.4 11.4 10.4 9.2 6.7
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 22
C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)
Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)
Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.
Source: Oil and Gas Journal.
East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.
Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.
2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3
2016 1.11 86.6 3.62 91.9 8.68 90.7 0.60 86.5 2.51 85.9 16.51 89.8
2017 1.07 88.7 3.75 93.6 8.87 90.9 0.62 89.4 2.58 88.7 16.88 90.9
1Q 2017 0.95 75.5 3.68 92.0 8.51 87.4 0.60 87.0 2.47 84.4 16.22 87.1
2Q 2017 1.10 91.3 3.84 96.0 9.28 95.2 0.62 89.7 2.58 87.8 17.42 93.8
3Q 2017 1.11 93.8 3.84 95.7 8.59 88.0 0.66 94.8 2.69 92.6 16.89 91.1
4Q 2017 1.12 95.0 3.65 90.9 9.07 92.7 0.60 86.3 2.56 90.1 17.01 91.8
1Q 2018 0.99 80.5 3.68 90.2 8.83 90.5 0.64 93.1 2.62 92.3 16.75 90.2
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.9% -0.1% 3.7% 5.4% 5.8% 3.3%
May-17 1.11 94.1 3.81 95.3 9.44 96.8 0.61 88.4 2.52 85.8 17.49 94.3
Jun-17 1.13 95.5 3.91 97.6 9.33 95.7 0.61 87.7 2.53 86.4 17.51 94.3
Jul-17 1.08 91.3 3.86 96.2 9.42 96.6 0.65 93.4 2.64 89.9 17.64 95.0
Aug-17 1.14 96.5 3.97 99.1 8.73 89.5 0.65 94.4 2.73 93.2 17.23 92.8
Sep-17 1.11 93.6 3.69 91.9 7.62 78.0 0.67 96.5 2.70 94.8 15.79 85.3
Oct-17 1.09 92.2 3.40 84.7 8.79 90.0 0.62 89.8 2.44 85.7 16.34 88.3
Nov-17 1.16 98.1 3.73 92.9 9.08 92.9 0.58 84.0 2.57 90.2 17.12 92.5
Dec-17 1.12 94.5 3.81 95.0 9.35 95.3 0.59 85.3 2.68 94.2 17.56 94.7
Jan-18 1.07 87.3 3.72 91.4 8.94 91.7 0.63 91.8 2.56 90.1 16.92 91.1
Feb-18 0.97 79.1 3.63 89.0 8.54 87.5 0.65 95.2 2.58 90.9 16.36 88.1
Mar-18 0.92 75.2 3.68 90.0 9.01 92.4 0.63 92.2 2.72 95.7 16.96 91.3
Apr-18 1.11 91.0 3.87 94.6 9.06 92.8 0.59 85.9 2.48 87.4 17.11 92.0
May-18 1.18 96.5 4.03 98.5 9.08 93.0 0.58 85.5 2.48 87.5 17.36 93.3
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.2% 5.8% -3.9% -4.6% -1.3% -0.8%
% of Total1 6.8% 23.2% 52.3% 3.4% 14.3% 100.0%
NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles
(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)
2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50
2016 9.28 11.63 10.24 11.51
2017 9.22 13.81 11.61 12.20
2Q 2017 9.89 13.08 11.68 14.50
3Q 2017 12.01 17.72 13.20 14.41
4Q 2017 7.66 15.05 10.35 7.58
1Q 2018 7.57 11.33 11.00 12.66
2Q 2018 9.58 17.68 13.94 14.35
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.2% 35.2% 19.4% -1.1%
Jun-17 10.13 12.35 10.62 14.21
Jul-17 12.53 15.23 12.81 15.32
Aug-17 13.24 18.72 15.35 16.44
Sep-17 10.27 19.20 11.45 11.47
Oct-17 7.54 15.16 10.06 7.00
Nov-17 7.89 14.83 10.93 8.74
Dec-17 7.54 15.16 10.06 7.00
Jan-18 8.55 14.02 11.55 9.73
Feb-18 7.29 9.24 10.73 11.89
Mar-18 6.86 10.73 10.72 16.36
Apr-18 8.53 14.96 13.92 17.59
May-18 10.65 18.82 15.17 14.80
Jun-18 9.55 19.25 12.74 10.65
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.7% 55.9% 20.0% -25.1%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 23
D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)
D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)
Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Canada East West
Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance
2015 4.51 1.58 2.96 0.03 0.22 0.96 -0.74 4.29 0.62 3.67
2016 4.44 1.55 2.88 0.00 0.25 0.87 -0.62 4.18 0.68 3.51
2017 4.80 1.74 3.06 0.01 0.26 0.95 -0.69 4.54 0.79 3.75
4Q 2016 4.83 1.53 3.41 0.11 0.32 0.84 -0.52 4.51 0.70 3.82
1Q 2017 4.93 1.74 3.21 0.02 0.32 0.93 -0.61 4.61 0.81 3.80
2Q 2017 4.47 1.73 2.72 -0.03 0.31 0.97 -0.66 4.16 0.76 3.40
3Q 2017 4.87 1.79 3.10 0.03 0.26 0.98 -0.73 4.61 0.81 3.80
4Q 2017 5.06 1.72 3.38 0.03 0.31 0.93 -0.63 4.76 0.78 3.98
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% 12.0% -0.8% -4.5% 11.6% 5.4% 12.5%
Dec-16 4.80 1.63 3.11 -0.06 0.31 0.89 -0.58 4.49 0.73 3.76
Jan-17 5.01 1.76 3.27 0.02 0.34 0.93 -0.59 4.67 0.84 3.84
Feb-17 5.00 1.69 3.42 0.11 0.31 0.91 -0.59 4.69 0.79 3.90
Mar-17 4.79 1.76 2.95 -0.08 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.47 0.80 3.67
Apr-17 4.35 1.67 2.60 -0.08 0.29 0.94 -0.65 4.06 0.73 3.33
May-17 4.51 1.71 2.80 0.00 0.32 0.96 -0.64 4.19 0.75 3.44
Jun-17 4.55 1.80 2.74 0.00 0.32 1.01 -0.69 4.23 0.79 3.44
Jul-17 4.82 1.81 3.11 0.10 0.30 0.98 -0.68 4.52 0.83 3.69
Aug-17 4.99 1.81 3.18 -0.01 0.24 1.00 -0.76 4.75 0.80 3.95
Sep-17 4.78 1.76 3.02 -0.01 0.23 0.96 -0.74 4.56 0.80 3.76
Oct-17 4.82 1.67 3.12 -0.02 0.30 0.91 -0.61 4.52 0.76 3.75
Nov-17 5.12 1.72 3.38 -0.03 0.31 0.94 -0.63 4.81 0.78 4.04
Dec-17 5.25 1.76 3.64 0.15 0.31 0.95 -0.64 4.95 0.81 4.14
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.4% 8.2% 17.0% -0.9% 6.7% 10.1% 10.1%
% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 5.9% 54.1% 94.1% 45.9%
Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2
2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4
2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6
2017 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9
4Q 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6
1Q 2017 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6
2Q 2017 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3
3Q 2017 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2
4Q 2017 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% 8.4% 6.4% 5.7% 2.1% 3.5%
Dec-16 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6
Jan-17 16.7 14.7 2.0 49.1 77.5 126.6
Feb-17 15.8 14.7 2.0 49.4 80.5 129.9
Mar-17 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6
Apr-17 14.8 15.5 2.4 49.7 72.5 122.2
May-17 15.5 13.2 1.9 46.8 71.3 118.1
Jun-17 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3
Jul-17 15.0 14.0 2.1 48.4 71.6 120.0
Aug-17 15.2 13.3 2.1 47.3 74.4 121.7
Sep-17 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2
Oct-17 17.0 13.3 2.3 49.5 72.7 122.2
Nov-17 15.7 12.3 1.8 45.6 77.2 122.8
Dec-17 15.8 14.4 2.3 48.1 78.7 126.9
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.6% 8.4% 6.4% 5.7% 2.1% 3.5%
Finished Products
Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1
2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80
2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81
2017 0.81 0.57 0.05 1.86
4Q 2016 0.80 0.54 0.04 1.80
1Q 2017 0.76 0.55 0.05 1.75
2Q 2017 0.82 0.54 0.06 1.83
3Q 2017 0.85 0.60 0.05 1.99
4Q 2017 0.81 0.60 0.05 1.86
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 9.9% 14.7% 3.6%
Dec-16 0.81 0.55 0.04 1.80
Jan-17 0.73 0.52 0.05 1.72
Feb-17 0.76 0.55 0.06 1.72
Mar-17 0.79 0.57 0.05 1.82
Apr-17 0.76 0.47 0.04 1.69
May-17 0.83 0.56 0.08 1.86
Jun-17 0.86 0.60 0.06 1.94
Jul-17 0.86 0.57 0.05 1.96
Aug-17 0.88 0.63 0.04 2.07
Sep-17 0.81 0.60 0.06 1.95
Oct-17 0.81 0.64 0.04 1.94
Nov-17 0.82 0.62 0.05 1.89
Dec-17 0.80 0.53 0.06 1.75
Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.2% -3.4% -94.1% -2.9%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 24
D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)
Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.
D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)
Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s
Energy Statistics Handbook.
Non-OPEC OPEC Imports
Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total
2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567
2016 0 211 10 10 510 70 0 0 0 70 0 580
2017 0 182 12 3 582 32 0 0 0 32 0 613
4Q 2016 0 253 0 13 473 30 0 0 0 30 0 503
1Q 2017 0 181 20 6 615 38 0 0 0 38 0 654
2Q 2017 0 89 0 0 615 55 0 0 0 55 0 670
3Q 2017 0 217 0 0 540 33 0 0 0 33 0 573
4Q 2017 0 0 0 0 557 0 0 0 0 0 0 557
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% -99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -99.9% 0.0% 10.7%
Dec-16 0 218 44 0 494 0 0 0 0 0 0 494
Jan-17 0 269 59 19 647 0 0 0 0 0 0 647
Feb-17 0 274 0 0 612 81 0 0 0 81 0 692
Mar-17 0 0 0 0 588 34 0 0 0 34 0 622
Apr-17 0 0 0 0 579 36 0 0 0 36 0 615
May-17 0 266 0 0 562 129 0 0 0 129 0 691
Jun-17 0 0 0 0 704 0 0 0 0 0 0 704
Jul-17 0 260 0 0 652 1 0 0 0 1 0 653
Aug-17 0 145 0 0 436 0 0 0 0 0 0 436
Sep-17 0 245 0 0 532 98 0 0 0 98 0 630
Oct-17 0 0 0 0 541 0 0 0 0 0 0 541
Nov-17 0 0 0 0 541 0 0 0 0 0 0 541
Dec-17 0 0 0 0 588 0 0 0 0 0 0 588
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9%
% of Total3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type
Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs
2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22
2016 3.08 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.87 0.78 0.93 0.40 1.49 0.26
2017 3.38 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.19 0.81 1.03 0.40 1.64 0.31
4Q 2016 3.36 0.47 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.18 0.79 1.15 0.41 1.57 0.26
1Q 2017 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.25 0.81 1.09 0.41 1.65 0.29
2Q 2017 3.08 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.23 3.89 0.81 0.87 0.40 1.52 0.29
3Q 2017 3.47 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.18 4.25 0.77 1.08 0.40 1.68 0.31
4Q 2017 3.56 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.39 0.84 1.08 0.40 1.72 0.35
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.9% 4.9% 7.5% -80.1% -5.5% 4.9% 6.9% -6.6% -1.9% 9.8% 31.9%
Dec-16 3.34 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.16 0.79 1.12 0.41 1.56 0.28
Jan-17 3.46 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.25 4.30 0.81 1.15 0.41 1.64 0.28
Feb-17 3.50 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.33 0.80 1.15 0.41 1.68 0.28
Mar-17 3.29 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.13 0.82 0.96 0.41 1.63 0.29
Apr-17 2.97 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.22 3.77 0.80 0.74 0.41 1.54 0.28
May-17 3.09 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 3.90 0.81 0.90 0.39 1.50 0.29
Jun-17 3.19 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 4.00 0.82 0.97 0.40 1.53 0.29
Jul-17 3.41 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.20 0.80 1.05 0.39 1.64 0.32
Aug-17 3.60 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.17 4.37 0.75 1.18 0.41 1.72 0.30
Sep-17 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.16 4.17 0.76 1.01 0.40 1.68 0.32
Oct-17 3.32 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.13 0.82 0.90 0.40 1.67 0.34
Nov-17 3.65 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.48 0.85 1.09 0.40 1.79 0.35
Dec-17 3.72 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.55 0.86 1.24 0.40 1.70 0.35
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.3% 3.4% 4.8% -46.0% -1.6% 9.4% 9.3% 10.1% -2.6% 9.2% 27.0%
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 25
E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)
Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
OECD Non-OECD OPEC World
N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1
2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337
2016 663 82 7 751 180 233 413 299 129 428 1,592
2017 1,096 75 15 1,186 186 228 413 307 121 428 2,027
2Q 2017 1,030 75 17 1,122 182 222 404 310 129 439 1,965
3Q 2017 1,173 71 15 1,259 178 236 414 310 119 429 2,102
4Q 2017 1,138 72 16 1,225 199 234 433 302 115 417 2,075
1Q 2018 1,257 70 16 1,343 196 238 434 310 122 432 2,208
2Q 2018 1,168 66 21 1,255 193 241 433 318 106 423 2,112
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.4% -11.6% 25.5% 11.9% 6.1% 8.2% 7.3% 2.5% -18.1% -3.6% 7.5%
Jun-17 1,105 74 14 1,193 180 230 410 314 124 438 2,041
Jul-17 1,172 65 14 1,251 181 239 420 313 126 439 2,110
Aug-17 1,182 74 15 1,271 180 238 418 308 119 427 2,116
Sep-17 1,165 73 16 1,254 173 232 405 310 111 421 2,080
Oct-17 1,138 75 17 1,230 196 231 427 307 113 420 2,077
Nov-17 1,125 69 15 1,209 198 237 435 300 114 414 2,058
Dec-17 1,150 71 15 1,236 202 235 437 299 117 416 2,089
Jan-18 1,233 68 15 1,316 207 235 442 301 116 417 2,175
Feb-18 1,311 68 16 1,395 194 243 437 312 127 439 2,271
Mar-18 1,228 73 17 1,318 187 235 422 316 123 439 2,179
Apr-18 1,134 72 18 1,224 191 239 430 320 113 433 2,087
May-18 1,151 64 23 1,238 195 239 434 320 103 423 2,095
Jun-18 1,218 62 23 1,303 192 244 436 313 101 414 2,153
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 10.2% -16.2% 64.3% 9.2% 6.7% 6.1% 6.3% -0.3% -18.5% -5.5% 5.5%
% of Total2 56.6% 2.9% 1.1% 60.5% 8.9% 11.3% 20.3% 14.5% 4.7% 19.2% 100.0%
United States Canada North America1
East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total
2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170
2016 39 117 30 260 84 508 485 23 128 536 100 636
2017 79 169 31 470 136 875 854 20 204 906 172 1,079
2Q 2017 77 171 33 489 140 892 871 21 115 831 176 1,007
3Q 2017 85 184 31 498 151 947 928 19 208 969 186 1,155
4Q 2017 95 176 31 485 142 921 901 20 205 947 178 1,125
1Q 2018 111 172 29 510 142 965 949 16 273 1,053 185 1,238
2Q 2018 116 178 31 555 158 1,038 1,019 18 105 948 195 1,143
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 49.6% 4.3% -7.0% 13.6% 13.4% 16.3% 17.0% -14.5% -8.1% 14.1% 10.7% 13.5%
Jul-17 81 188 35 504 152 953 931 22 198 962 189 1,151
Aug-17 84 183 29 499 151 947 930 17 217 981 183 1,164
Sep-17 91 181 29 491 149 940 922 18 210 963 187 1,150
Oct-17 95 181 32 479 145 922 901 21 204 945 180 1,126
Nov-17 91 172 30 485 140 911 891 20 205 943 173 1,116
Dec-17 98 174 30 492 140 930 911 19 205 953 182 1,135
Jan-18 107 171 31 493 139 937 919 18 278 1,029 187 1,215
Feb-18 114 173 28 511 141 969 952 17 323 1,112 180 1,292
Mar-18 112 173 28 525 145 989 976 13 218 1,019 188 1,207
Apr-18 113 178 29 540 150 1,011 995 16 98 916 193 1,109
May-18 117 182 33 556 161 1,046 1,026 20 82 929 198 1,128
Jun-18 117 174 31 570 164 1,056 1,037 19 136 999 193 1,192
Jul-18 124 175 30 560 160 1,050 1,032 18 203 1,066 187 1,253
Yr-on-Yr Chg. 53.1% -6.9% -14.3% 11.1% 5.3% 10.2% 10.9% -20.2% 2.5% 10.8% -0.9% 8.9%
% of Total3 9.9% 14.0% 2.4% 44.7% 12.8% 83.8% 82.4% 1.4% 16.2% 85.1% 14.9% 100.0%
CERI Crude Oil Report
Page 26
Geographical Specifications
1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak
Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is
comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD
Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-
OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England
(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,
Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid
-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West
(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West
(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,
Washington.
3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the
Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova
Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British
Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest
Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).
Additional Notes
1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),
whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.
Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as
NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined
products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo
by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified
quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.
Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the
loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the
responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is
priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the
transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is
similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF
transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is
greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.
Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock
changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.
Crude Stream
Producing
Country or
Region
API
Gravity
(@60° F)
Sulfur
Content
(%)
BBLs/Metric
Tonne
Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910
Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773
WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640
GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640
Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640
Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640
Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640
ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640
Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551
Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506
Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462
Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373
Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373
Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373
Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373
WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328
Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284
Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284
Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239
Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194
Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105
Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061
ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061
Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971
Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971
Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838
Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436
Crude Oil Qualities
For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6
