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Arafura Resources Global Investor Update Dr Steve Ward MD & CEO Mr Gavin Lockyer CFO & Company Secretary
December 2011
Page 2
Disclaimer
Important Notice This presentation contains certain statements which may constitute “forward-looking statements”. Such statements are only expectations or beliefs and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties which could cause actual values, results or performance achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied in this presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied is made by Arafura Resources Limited (“Arafura Resources”) that any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation will occur, be achieved or prove to be correct. You are cautioned against relying upon any forward looking statement. Except for statutory liability which cannot be excluded, each of Arafura Resources and its related body corporates and their officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the material contained in this presentation and excludes all liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person as a consequence of any information in this presentation or any error in it or omission from it. Arafura Resources accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any inaccuracy, omission or change in information in this presentation or any other information made available to a person, nor any obligation to furnish the person with any further information. This presentation does not constitute an offer of securities in Arafura Resources, nor an invitation to apply for such securities. This presentation does not provide investment advice or financial product advice. You should obtain professional advice and carry out your own independent investigations and assessment of the information in this presentation (including any assumptions) before acting. Information in this presentation which is attributed to a third party source has not been checked or verified by Arafura Resources. The information in this presentation that relates to exploration results, mineral resources or ore reserves is based on information compiled by Mr Richard Brescianini BSc(Hons). Mr Brescianini is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists and he has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the “Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves (The JORC Code)”. Mr Brescianini consents to the inclusion in this presentation of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears. Mr Brescianini is a full-time employee of Arafura Resources.
Page 3
Introduction to Arafura
Corporate Summary Australian Public Company – formed 1997 Listed on ASX in 2003 (code ARU) Nolans Project for Rare Earths Own technology developed Bankable Feasibility Study due H2 2012 Project Financing sought by end 2012 First production by end 2014 subject to BFS
Our Vision: ‘ To be the recognised leading producer of rare earths for users worldwide’
‘All Australian’ Business Model – mining, chemical processing and own technology to produce rare earth oxides
Ore
Mineral Concentrate
Rare Earth Intermediates (Carbonate)
Rare Earth Oxides
Metals/Alloys
Components
OEMs
20,000 t p.a.
1. Substantial German-based shareholding amongst many shareholders 2. East China Mineral Exploration & Development Bureau
As at 5 December 2011
Market Statistics Share price 52 Week High / Low Shares on issue Market capitalisation Options on issue
A$0.52
A$1.59 / A$0.445 368 million
~A$191 million ~22.6 million
Balance Sheet Debt - nil Cash ~A$45 million (25 Nov 2011)
Top shareholders JP Morgan Nominees1 ECE2 Board & Management
31.2% 17.5% 2.5%
Page 4
Nolans Project
The Nolans Bore Mine and its supporting infrastructure will act as a catalyst for business opportunities
throughout Central Australia
The Whyalla Rare Earths Complex will be a very substantial chemical processing operation by Australian
standards
Nolans Project is world scale and strategically significant ……………. One of only three well advanced large scale projects Australia – low sovereign risk and world class regulatory environment Excellent locations; Nolans mine is remote, but not isolated, and is close to
infrastructure; Whyalla is a long-standing and well established industrial city
Page 5
Nolans Project – Globally Significant
Annual Production
REO Rare Earths Oxides 20,000 t
Phosphate Product (as P2O5)
80,000 t (approximately)
UO4 Uranium Oxide 150 t
CaSO4 Gypsum
500,000 t
High potential value, long life, multiple revenue streams with upside potential ….
Financial Evaluation October 2010
October 2010 Project Economics
Capital Costs @ 0.95 A$950 million
Sales Revenue US$
Low Mid High
Rare earth oxides US$/kg $22.00 $38.00 $54.00
Rare earth oxides 20,000t US$ $440 $760 $1,080
Phosphoric Acid 80,000t US$1,250/t $100
Gypsum 500,000t US$25/t $12
Uranium 150t US$40/lb $13
Total Revenue p.a. US$M $565 $885 $1,205
A$M
Total Revenue p.a @ 0.95 $595 $932 $1,268
Annual Operating Expenses @ 0.95 ($376)
EBITDA p.a $219 $556 $892
NPV @ 10% after tax and capital payback $1,420 $4,050 $6,549
Capital Payback - years 5 4 3
Current price (1 Dec 2011)
US$129.04/kg
Page 6
Project History and Timeline
Exploration Prefeasibility Study
Bankable Feasibility Study Construction Operations
Complete Complete In progress target
completion end 2012
2013/14 2H2014
Exploration Began 2000 Maiden JORC Resource 2003
Technology Program began 2004 Prefeasibility study completed 2007
Current JORC Resource 2008 Technology piloting 2008/09 Whyalla site announced 2010 Technology demonstration 2010 & 2011 Appointment of specialist engineering
contractor 2011 early Expanded BFS Rare Earth focus 2011 First Customer LOI announced in 2011 Expansion drilling program Complete optimization Finalize design study Secure regulatory approvals Complete sales contracts with target customers Obtain Project Finance
At time of completed BFS 2H 2012: Approx 100km of drilling
completed at Nolans Approx total project expenditure
$250M
Already a long way through a lengthy industry development timeline, one of the few advanced world scale projects …………
Current Status
Approximately 15 years for a rare earths project
Page 7
Nolans Project Timeline for 2012
Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012
Drill Program
Mine Planning
Technology Demonstration - Beneficiation - RE Processing
Study Engineering and Estimating - Mine and Beneficiation - RE Complex
Finalise Project Finance
BFS Report Finalisation
Regulatory Approvals
Supply Contracts
Sales Contracts
Engineering for Construction Readiness
Page 8
Create value, de-risk and use world class expert assistance…………….
Engage world class experts to assist in all aspects of the Nolans Project
Focus on value-creating rare earth oxide production in industry chain
Standard design and low risk co-product plants
Develop own technology for processing Nolans ore into rare earth oxides
Demonstration scale trials of technology to de-risk beyond more normal piloting scale
Minimize capital requirements through simplification
Improve operability – reduce volumes of raw materials and wastes to manage and reduce operating costs;
Optimize product quality/mix to maximize margins
Position for future developments if value-creating, e.g. phosphoric acid.
Arafura’s approach to the Nolans Project
Page 9
WORK STREAM PFS OCT 10 UPDATE DEVELOPED TARGETING
Concentrate Grade 4% 4% 5% 10%+
Pre-Leach Complex Complex Simplified to be demonstrated
Simplified
Rare Earth Sulphation Complex Complex Simplified to be demonstrated
Simplified
Uranium ADU/U3O8 ADU/U3O8 Simplified to be demonstrated
UO4
Phosphate Phosphoric
Acid
Phosphoric Acid
Simplified to be demonstrated
Simpler solid phosphate
Calcium Chloride CaCl2 CaCl2 CaSO4 / HCl CaSO4 / HCl
Rare Earth Oxides 20,000t p.a. 20,000t p.a. 20,000t p.a. 20,000t p.a.
Nolans Project Scope Evolution
Simplified flow sheet
De-risked flow sheet
Value creating
Rare Earths focus
Page 10
Leading Consultants Engaged
Our approach has been to use well-known world wide experts…..
Operational, Technology and Regulatory: Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) Bureau Veritas - AMDEL ALS - AMMTEC Bateman Litwin Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) GHD AECOM
Mining & Engineering: Lycopodium Parson Brinkerhoff Battery Limits AMEC Minproc
Page 11
Nolans Bore 2011 Expansion Drilling Program
N
500m
Sampling facilities
Nolans Bore
Drill rigs
Drill rig
Drill rig
Drill rig
Major program (52km) - Initial results confirm the presence of additional mineralisation ………
Page 12
Building a Sustainable Business for the Future
Australian developed & proven flow sheet – not reliant on others
Additional flowsheet demonstration programs at scale are underway to de-risk start up & achieve nameplate capacity quickly – see next slide
Demonstration programs will also provide potential customers and financiers opportunities to observe and assess our operations for their due diligence.
Environmental Guidelines of the highest standards have been issued as anticipated. No surprises, most studies completed or well advanced
Arafura is ‘going the extra mile’ to ‘get it right’ first time and ensure success ……
Page 13
Demonstration Plant
The flow sheet has been proven at pilot scale and is now undergoing final demonstration ….
Gypsum from HCl Regeneration Demonstration Plant 2011 ALS-Ammtec Perth
Mixed REO Carbonate Production 2009 ANSTO Sydney
Water Leach Piloting 2009 ANSTO Sydney
Sulphation Baking 2009 ANSAC Bunbury
Pre leach Demonstration Plant 2011 ALS-Ammtec Perth
HREO sample produced from Nolans Bore 2010 ANSTO Sydney
Page 14
Nolans Project – Government Approvals
Excellent support from Federal, Northern Territory (NT) and South Australian (SA) governments
Major project status from South Australian Government
Strong support from local communities in both NT and SA locations – community engagement ongoing
Technology designed to meet highest environmental standards – EIS guidelines issued and studies underway in both locations
Rare earths recognized as a strategic material
Significant capital expenditure – will bring direct developments worth over $1 Billion in total (Arafura + others) to Australia at Nolans and Whyalla
Page 15
Rare Earths - Introduction
An exciting market outlook in new high technology applications and clean and efficient energy uses, with increasing demand driven by consumers, society & regulators …..
Page 16
Market Overview
Current annual global consumption 130kt
Major geographic markets are China and Japan; lesser amounts in Europe, USA and Korea
Current annual value US$15 Billion
China currently produces 97% of global supplies
Future demand growth very strong: two to five times GDP depending on application
China production declining – closure of polluting and illegal operations
China reducing supplies to rest of world by tightening export quotas
Overall market very tight – supplies short
Worldwide users seeking new supply sources from outside China
Few new supply sources this decade - much ‘probable unrealistic’ speculation
PERFECT STORM & OPPORTUNITY FOR ARAFURA
Page 17
Global Strategic Importance - A New Supply Era
Page 17
The industry challenge is for the supply side to keep up with demand growth creating an opportunity for a new supply era involving new western suppliers …..
Global REO Production 2009 Australia
Brazil
China
CIS
India
Malaysia
USA
Other
Geochemistry of each deposit is different Unique separation technology for each deposit Production is high technology and capital intensive Chinese production has reduced and maxed out Opportunity for new supply Western sources – few Great opportunity for Arafura
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
REO Supply by Era
China USA All Other
Global REO Reserves 2009 Australia
Brazil
China
CIS
India
Malaysia
USA
Other
Page 18
Supply and Demand
Total Rare Earth Oxide (REO) supply growth does not keep up with demand growth rates in any year!
Capacity utilizations bottoms out in 2015 at 107%
Global demand then requires another ~20,000mt of supply (a Nolans project) each year above current supply forecasts
Unclear where the supply will come from
On an individual rare earth basis ‘Lights’ (Ce and La) are most plentiful but are ‘snug’ at their easiest point and then short
Based on Arafura’s research of the market
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
Global REO Supply - Demand Balance
Capacity Utilization Suppy Demand
Metric tons % Cap. Util.
Page 19
Price Trends
1990 to 2005 atypical low priced era driven by unsustainable low cost Chinese production
2006 prices begin to rise with first Chinese export quotas
2007 to 2008 prices fall due to soft demand in GFC
2009 prices begin to recover post GFC. Demand increases, Chinese supply reduces
2010 to 2011 prices increase markedly as demand accelerates, Chinese production reduces ( closure of polluting and illegal operations) and Chinese export quotas tighten
2011H2 prices peak, then adjust from highs, rate of decline has slowed and beginning to ‘level out’. Prices still circa 250% above levels 12 months ago
2012+ Low priced era is over, prices will follow
supply/demand dynamics
Prices in real terms have returned to long term levels prior to low price ‘Chinese era’ ……
Page 20
Nolans Bore Resource – Magnet Feed
Nolans Bore has a higher proportion of desirable “magnet feed” Rare Earths Nd, Pr & Dy compared with other deposits.
The permanent magnet market is forecast to have strong growth and will be a key driver for the industry
Nolans is one of only four Rare Earth projects likely to be in operation by 2015.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
"Magnet feed"
Nd + Pr + Dy as % of total REE mix
The Nolans Bore resource is well aligned with magnet end markets ….
Page 21
Target Customer Program
Interest in Arafura’s REO products is high
Arafura has identified target customers worldwide with whom it would like to develop mutual long term relationships, key geographical regions include Japan, Korea, Europe and USA
First LOI already signed with Thyssen Krupp
Arafura is only new supplier with significant volumes available for sale
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
Key customer specifications refined
Generation of customer samples from Demonstration program
Customer visits to demonstration facilities
Letters of Intent negotiated
Completion of provisional sales contracts
Rare Earth Project Comparison
Exploration Prefeasibility Study Bankable Feasibility Study Construction Operations
Arafura is undervalued compared to industry peers ….
Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU)
Greenland Minerals & Energy (40 kt p.a.) (ASX: GGG) Rare Element Resources (10 kt p.a.) (NYSE: REE)
Arafura (20 kt p.a.) (ASX: ARU) Alkane (1.5 kt p.a.) (ASX: ALK) Avalon Rare Metals (10 kt p.a.) (TSX: AVL)
Molycorp (40 kt p.a.) (NYSE: MCP) Lynas (22 kt p.a.) (ASX: LYC)
Molycorp reprocessing (< 5 kt p.a.)
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Northern Minerals Ltd.
Arafura Resources Ltd.
Rare Element Resources Ltd.
Greenland Minerals & Energy Ltd.
Alkane Resources Ltd.
Avalon Rare Metals Inc.
Lynas Corp. Ltd.
Molycorp Inc.
Market Capitalisation (A$m)
Market Capitalisation – Rare Earth Sector
Note: Market capitalisation as at 2 December 2011 converted to AUD at the prevailing exchange rate
Page 23
Investment Opportunity
Funding requirements: Current cash on hand approximately A$45 million with no debt Requirements for next 12 months are approximately an additional A$70 million to
complete the BFS and fund completion of the demonstration plant ahead of project financing at the end of 2012
Recent 1:3 rights issue @ A$0.60 per share was cancelled due to market volatility Macquarie Capital (Australia) Limited has now been appointed to advise on funding
options
Funding sources: Consideration is being given to all possible sources:
– Customers (forward sales) and strategic investments – Debt & equity markets – Suppliers – Sovereign debt markets – Other (hybrid, mezzanine etc) or a combination of the above
A number of recent examples of customers, strategics and institutional investors that have supported financing of new rare earths projects outside of China
Page 24
Summary
Robust and well regarded ‘All Australian’ business model
World scale Nolans Project with high value creation potential
Nolans Project well advanced and likely to be one of very few new supply sources this decade – with upside potential
Significant government and community support – EIS to highest standards underway
Australian developed and proven technology. Now going the extra mile (via the BFS and demonstration plant) to optimize, de-risk, get it right first time and ensure success
On-track for completion of BFS and to have Project Financing in place by end of 2012
Discussions are in progress with target customers worldwide outside of China
‘Undervalued’ compared to peers - investment opportunity
Appendix
Page 26
Experienced Management Team
Dr. Steve Ward
Managing Director &
CEO
Age 56
Holds PhD in Physical
Chemistry and over 30
years experience in the
chemical, mining and
minerals processing
industries.
Formally engaged by
Cristal, a Saudi Arabian
based titanium pigment
producer as Snr Vice
President Strategy and
Development and was
Chairman and CEO of
Bemax Resources
Gavin Lockyer
Company Sec & CFO
Age 44
Has over 15 years
experience in the banking
and mining industries.
Previously with Newmont,
Newcrest, Tethyan
CopperCo, Bankwest and
ANZ, and Bankers Trust
and Deutsche Bank in
London.
Gary Cianfichi
Head of Sales &
Marketing
Age 54
Gary has a degree in
Science and Engineering
and has spent a large part
of his career in senior
executive roles involved
with global sales and
marketing in titanium
dioxide and other specialty
chemicals
.
Richard Brescianini
GM – Exploration &
Development
Age 48
Has over 20 years
experience in the minerals
industry,
He has worked with BHP
Minerals on base and
precious metals exploration
programs throughout
Australasia and North
America.
Recently he held the
position of Director with the
Northern Territory
Geological Survey.
.
Neil Graham
GM – Operations
Age 47
Neil Graham has more
than 25 years of
international experience in
the chemical industry,
encompassing design,
construction, and
commissioning of both start
up and brownfield
installations, in addition to
substantial operations
management experience of
facilities in several different
countries.
John Ganser
GM – Projects
Age 55
John Ganser is a graduate
in Mechanical Engineering
from the University of
Adelaide with over 30
years of experience in the
minerals and metals
industry. He has worked
for Rio Tinto, BHP, Iluka
Resources, Hatch, SKM
GHD and Calibre Projects.
Page 27
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
Shar
e P
rice
(A
$)
Series1 Series2ARU ASX S&P 300 Index (rebased to ARU share price)
Share Price History & Performance vs. Index
$90m raised via placement of 75 million shares @ $1.20 per share
A total of $19.5m raised through a renounceable
rights issue and placement
$7.5m raised through a non-renounceable rights issue
$18.5m raised through placement @ $1.00 per share
Significant new drilling intercepts and assay results
Major resource upgrade at Nolan's
FIRB approval for Nolan’s investment by ECE Nolan’s rare earth feasibility update
Further rare earth oxides produced and technology
update
Nolans phosphate recovery and testwork commercially
and technically feasible
Nolans PFS released
Source: IRESS Note: For the “ASX S&P 300 Index (rebased to ARU share price)” being the red line in the chart, the ASX S&P 300 Index was rebased (made equivalent to Arafura’s share price) on the 4 December 2006. From this point onwards to the present point in time it is increased or decreased by the % amount the index increased/decreased on each trading day. The chart shows that over the relevant period that Arafura has outperformed the ASX S&P 300 Index
Scope of Nolan’s Rare Earth BFS expanded
Further price increases for Nolans Rare Earths
Chinese company ECE invests A$23m to acquire a 25% stake in Arafura
Thank you