Are Chinese Official

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Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?

(November 2, 2005)

Gregor Cho!, "rinceton #niversit

$% &ntro' ction

On the estion raise' in this *a*er, +Are Chinese official statistics reliable? economists

an' general observers have 'ifferent o*inions% - vie! is that the statistics are b an'

large reliable an' sef l for 'ra!ing concl sions abo t the Chinese econom b t some

statistics are not reliable%

A general 'isc ssion of 'ata alit is *rovi'e' in section 2% &n section . & !ill *resentevi'ence for the sef lness of official 'ata b 'ra!ing from m o!n e/*erience in sing

them to *erform econometric anal ses in or'er to n'erstan' the Chinese econom % &n

section & !ill cite some e/am*les of errors in official statistics% Section 5 is an

e/amination of *ossible errors in the official estimates of G1" gro!th% Altho gh gro!th

an' ine alit are t!o e all im*ortant to*ics in China s economic 'evelo*ment to'a ,

& !ill not e/amine the alit of the 'ata on income ine alit beca se it is not

consi'ere' a ma3or iss e in the 'isc ssion of 'ata alit % 4his *a*er 'oes not 'isc ss

'ata bias an' 'ata acc rac se*aratel as it treats 'ata bias as a s*ecial case of 'ata

alit % Section concl 'es%

2% 1ata 6 alit in General

A most caref l an' s stematic st ' on this s b3ect is 7ol8 (2005) !hich contains the

follo!ing concl sions on 'ata alit (*%$0)9

+7o!ever one ma eval ate the allegations of 'ata falsification in certain ears, eventhe critics ac:no!le'ge that long;r n gro!th tren's are a**ro/imatel correct% 4he 'ata

*roblems re*orte' here are facts !hich are nli:el to be ni e to China< other

transition an' 'evelo*ing co ntries e/*erience similar 'iffic lties% 4he margins of errors

are inevitabl larger than in 'evelo*e' co nties, *erha*s even ncomfortabl large=

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& agree !ith the above assessment an' also !ith the a thor s statement (on *% >) that

+har' evi'ence on 'ata mani* lation@ is relativel scarce=

4his *a*er 'ra!s from m o!n e/*erience in e/amining an' sing Chinese official 'ata

as an *'ate of Cho! ($ B ) an' is s **lementar to the caref l st ' of 7ol8 (2005) to

!hich & essentiall agree%

4he evi'ence available to me has le' to the follo!ing *ro*ositions%

A%China Statistical Yearbook * blishe' ann all since $ B$ b the Chinese

National rea of Statistics (formerl State Statistics rea ) is the *ro' ct of

its staff members locate' in ei3ing an' in vario s *rovinces an' cities !ho arere ire' b la! to *rovi'e acc rate statistics as *ointe' b Cho! ($ B , section

5, on the Da! of Statistics *asse' b the National "eo*le s Congress (N"C) on

1ecember B, $ B.)% 7ol8 (2005, *% 22) *'ates this legal re irement !hen he

!rites9 +4he Statistics Da! states that Estatistical *ersonnel m st see: tr th from

facts, strictl abi'e b *rofessional stan'ar's diode], an' lea'ers of localities,

government 'e*artments, or other nits ma not or'er or as: statistical

'e*artments an' statistical *ersonnel to change or falsif statistical 'ata% (N"C,

$5 -a $ , Art% 2 an' >)% Fet the r le of la! ma have to 'efer to "art

*rimac % & !ill 'isc ss *ossible *olitical infl ence belo!%

% Re*orts of the Chinese "remier on the !or: of the government *resente' before

the ann al meetings of the Chinese National "eo*le s Congress are base' on

official statistics relate' to the accom*lishments of the *ast ear or to the ann al

*lan (a *art of the ive;Fear "lan) for the coming ear% 4his sho!s that the

statistics are se' for internal *lanning * r*oses an' are s b3ect to revie! b all

members of the National "eo*le s Congress an' b international observers% 4here

is no incentive for the *remier to lie not onl beca se his re*ort is n'er the

scr tin of the entire !orl' b t beca se sing fabricate' 'ata can onl lea' to

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conf sion of all government officials sing s ch 'ata for their !or: in economic

*lanning an' 'evelo*ment%

C% N mero s scholars have se' Chinese official 'ata to *erform econometric

anal ses that are * blishe' in *rofessional 3o rnals an' s b3ect to the revie! of

referees% 4his sho!s that most economists believe that the 'ata se' are reliable

eno gh for 'ra!ing vali' concl sions abo t the Chinese econom %

1% Hrrors in the 'ata have been fo n', sho!ing that some 'ata are not reliable%

H% An obvio s im*lication of *ro*ositions C an' 1 is that one can se official 'ata

b t sho l' e/ercise ca tion to ma:e s re that the 'ata are reliable for the * r*ose

at han'%

"ro*osition A is a statement of the mission of the *eo*le *ro' cing official statistics asre ire' b la!% &t is a *artial g arantee for honest re*orting nless the staff members are

not la! abi'ing%

Critics of "ro*ositions A an' might sa that someho! the staff of the National

Statistics rea is n'er *ress re from the "remier or other officials of the State Co ncil

to falsif statistics for *olitical * r*oses% "ro*osition asserts that both the "remier s

office an' the Statistics rea are n'er the scr tin of the members of the National

"eo*le s Congress an' the entire !orl' an' that b sing falsifie' 'ata government

officials cannot *erform effectivel their !or: in economic 'evelo*ment% or the critics

to be right, the "remier or one of the officials n'er him has to be 'ishonest in 'irecting

activities relate' to the ive;Fear "lan, the Statistics rea has to be !illing to assist the

'ishonest *erson b falsif 'ata an' thir'l s ch coo*erative 'ece*tion is not 'etecte' b

observers in the entire !orl'% &t a**ears to me that these three con'itions are 'iffic lt to

be met, altho gh some critics ma still cite e/am*les of falsif ing the rates of gro!th of

G1" either *!ar's or 'o!n!ar's as a res lt of *olitical *ress re, a to*ic to !hich & !ill

ret rn belo!%

4o ans!er the critics of "ro*osition & ote from Cho! (200 , **% $;2)9

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+&n more recent ears, "remier Ih Rong3i anno nce' targets for total national o t* t

an' o t* ts of *artic lar *rovinces in $ , 2000, 200$ an' 2002% A *rovincial governor

might have been tem*te' to falsif 'ata to f lfill the target state' b the "remier, b t the

staff of the State Statistical rea in ei3ing ha' all the incentive to correct an falsifie'

statistics re*orte' from belo!% "remier Ih !o l' not have tolerate' s ch false re*orting

an' !o l' have * nishe' an one res*onsible% 4he National rea of Statistics also

has staff in its branch officers in 'ifferent *rovinces an' cities to collect 'ata an' to chec:

the acc rac of the 'ata re*orte' (see 7ol8 (2005, **% $$;2))%

4o chec: !hether the rea ten'e' to * blish o t* t 'ata to com*l !ith the targets set

b the "remier consi'er the follo!ing ann al gro!th rates of real G1" * blishe' in

China Statistical Yearbook 2004, table .;., e/ce*t for 200 ;5 !hich are base' on anarticle on inflation in China Daily J l 2$, 20059

Fear $ $ > $ B $ 2000 200$ 2002 200. 200 2005gro!t

h

%B B% >%B >%2 B% >%2 B% $0%0 %5 %

Khat evi'ence can the critics *rovi'e to claim that the official gro!th rates in $ B;200$

are over;estimates? &f the !ere overestimates the rea !o l' have to lo!er thegro!th rates in later ears to com*ensate for them since all o t* t 'ata are also re*orte'

in *h sical nits !hich the rea'ers can chec: in'e*en'entl % 4he rea 'i' have a

chance to n'er;re*ort the gro!th rates after 200$ beca se the target gro!th rates !ere

lo!er than the rates re*orte' in the above table%

Outline for the 10 th Fi e!Year "lan of the #ational $cono%ic and Social De elo&%ent of

the "eo&le's (e&ublic of China, *asse' b the National "eo*le s Congress on -arch $5,200$, set a target for ann al G1" gro!th in the *erio' 200$;5 of +a**ro/imatel >

*ercent an' a target for the ear 2005 to be a**ro/imatel $2%5 trillion an in 2000

*rices (cha*ter 2, *aragra*h 2)% irst, the official ann al gro!th rates in 200$;5 !ere all

above > *ercent an' some m ch above% 4his sho!s that *olitical *ress re 'i' not force

the rea to com*l an' that if it ha' 'one so b overestimating the gro!th rates the


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ears before the rea co l' have re' ce' the gro!th rates in these later ears to

com*ensate an' it 'i' not% Secon'l , a**l ing the above gro!th rates from 200$ to 2005

!e fin' that the real o t* t in 2005 !o l' be $%5.> times the o t* t of 2000% Given a

2000 G1" of B% 5 trillion, the re*orte' 2005 G1" in 2000 *rices !o l' be $.%> trillion,

e/cee'ing the $2%5 trillion target b $0 *ercent% 4h s the Statistics rea allo!e' an

overestimate of the target b abo t 2 *ercentage *oints *er ear for five ears% 4he

gro!th targets might have been set conservativel to ins re a high chance of being

achieve', b t the evi'ence for the rea to re*ort real o t* t falsel in or'er to com*l

!ith anno nce' targets is lac:ing from the above 'ata%

4he above 'isc ssion also *oints to the im*ossibilit of fabricating incorrect gro!th rates

for a long *erio'% As *ointe' o t in Cho! (200 , *% 5 ; 0)9+ or the * r*ose of st ' ing long;term tren's, !e can tolerate si8able inacc racies in the

levels of the variables= 4o ill strate, accor'ing to official 'ata, China s G1" !as . 2%

billion (in constant $ >B an) in $ >B an' 2.$2% billion in $ B% 4he e/*onential rate

of gro!th in this 20; ear *erio' is ln(2.$2% );ln(. 2% )@L20 or 0%0 2 B=Det both the

$ >B an' the $ B G1" be overestimates, b t the latter be an overestimate b as m ch as

.0 *ercent more, relative to the former% Ke therefore sho l' revise it 'o!n!ar' from

2.$2% to $>> %2 billion an% 4he revise' ann al e/*onential rate of gro!th rate is

ln($>> %2) M ln(. 2% )@L20 or $%0B. =4h s even s ch a large relative error in the $ B

estimate 'oes not alter the concl sion of a ver ra*i' rate of gro!th% 4he reason is that

!hen the estimate for the terminal ear is re' ce' s bstantiall , the effect is average' o t

over 20 ears in calc lating the average rate of gro!th%

.% #sing Official Statistics to #n'erstan' the Chinese Hconom

4his section s mmari8es the main *oints of several econometric st 'ies & have *erforme'

sing Chinese official 'ata% Since the st 'ies confirm !ell establishe' economic

h *otheses sing these 'ata, the alit of the 'ata an' the vali'it of the h *otheses

reinforce each other% 7o!ever !e 'o not *rovi'e a s stematic anal sis of !hat :in's of

errors can be tolerate' in each st ' beca se this !o l' ma:e the *a*er too length %

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.%$ 1escri*tive Statistics of the Chinese Hconom

&n the *rocess of !riting Cho! ($ B5) & se' Statistical Yearbook of China to 'escribe

some facts abo t the Chinese econom % &n the earl $ B0s, Kestern observers often

claime' that Chinese official statistics !ere se' to fool the o tsi'e !orl' abo t China%

4his claim !as s **orte' b stories !ritten b ne!s re*orters !ho ha' visite' China an'

!rote glorif ing stories ' ring the *erio' of the C lt ral Revol tion an' later fo n' them

to be ntr e% 4he fact that Chinese officials misle' visitors abo t China has been !ell

'oc mente'% 7o!ever, an' some!hat s r*risingl , s ch falsification 'i' not s rvive

!hen Statistical Yearbook of China began to be * blishe' in $ B$%

Det me cite some e/am*les% 1 ring the Great Dea* or!ar' -ovement of $ 5B; $

Chairman -ao Ie'ong rge' the farmers to increase their o t* t at an nreasonable rate%

Some Comm nes 'i' re*ort m ch larger o t* t than act all obtaine' an' some s ch

re*orts a**eare' in Chinese ne!s*a*ers at the time% 7o!ever, gross agric lt ral o t* t

val e in constant $ 5> *rices re*orte' in Statistical Yearbook of China 1)*1 , *% $>, !as

re' ce' from 5.%> billion an in $ 5>, the ear before the Great Dea* to .%0 billion in

$ 2, the ear after the Great Dea*, !hile national income in constant *rices 'ecrease'

b .$ *ercent from $ 0 to $ $ ( Yearbook 1)*4 , *% .0)%

Statistics of *o* lation !as im*rove' !hen China receive' hel* from the #nite' Nations

in the collection of *o* lation 'ata in the earl $ B0s% Official statistics have been se'

b the Office of "o* lation Research at "rinceton #niversit for 'emogra*hic st 'ies of

the Chinese econom % Accor'ing to Statistical Yearbook of China 1))0, *+ 0, the 'eath

rates in $ 5B M $ 2 !ere res*ectivel $$% B, $ %5 , 25% ., $ %2 an' $0%02 *er tho san'

*ersons !hile the birth rates in these ears !ere res*ectivel 2 %22, 2 %>B, 20%B , $B%02

an' .>%0$% 4hese 'ata sho! the large increases in the 'eath rate an' s bstantial

re' ctions in birth rate follo!ing the economic 'isaster create' b the Great Dea*

or!ar' -ovement% oth s ggest the starvation or maln trition of the *o* lation ' ring

this *erio' !hich Chinese government 'i' not attem*t to conceal from the 'ata%


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1 ring the C lt ral Revol tion in $ ;$ > , !hen some Kestern re*orters having

visite' China 'escribe' the co ntr as a to*ia, Statistical Yearbook of China 1)*1 , *%

5$ re*orts that st 'ent enrollment in higher e' cation !as B tho san' in $ >0 as

com*are' !ith >50 tho san' in $ . an' $,020 tho san' in $ > % 4he C lt ral

Revol tion ca se' almost all niversities to close as the 'ata reveal% Concerning real

!age of all state;o!ne' nits, Yearbook 1)*1, **% $$;2 an' .5; , s mmari8e' in

Cho! ($ B5b, *% $ .), gives average ann al !age *er !or:er to be .> an in $ 5>, the

last normal ear before the Great Dea*, an' 02 in $ >>, the ear before economic

reform starte'% 4he re' ction in real !age *er !or:er is more since the general retail

*rice in'e/ !as $2$%. in $ 5> an' $.5%0 in $ >>% 4his reveals that ' ring t!ent ears of

the *erio' of central *lanning from $ 5> (the last ear of the first ive;Fear "lan) to$ >> real !age of the Chinese !or:ers act all 'ecline' b $5 *ercent%

.%2 An Aggregate -o'el of National &ncome 1etermination

&n Cho! ($ B5) & se' official 'ata from $ 5. to $ B2 on national income, cons m*tion

an' acc m lation (investment) to estimate a sim*le mo'el of the Chinese macro;

econom % & fo n' the cons m*tion f nction to satisf the *ermanent income h *othesis

of 7all ($ >B), !hich states that cons m*tion is a**ro/imatel a ran'om !al:, i%e%,

ann al change in cons m*tion is not *re'ictable b *ast 'ata, an' the investment

e ation to satisf the acceleration *rinci*le, i%e%, investment is a f nction of the rate of

change of income rather than the level of income% 4he *ermanent income h *othesis

states that cons m*tion is base' on income in a longer time hori8on than 3 st the c rrent

ear% 4he acceleration *rinci*le is base' on the h *othesis that 'eman' for ca*ital stoc:

'e*en's on the level of o t* t< since investment is the rate of change of ca*ital stoc: it

!ill 'e*en' on the rate of change of income or o t* t% 4hese la!s sho l' a**l to China

as 'o man other economic la!s se' to st ' the Chinese econom s mmari8e' in

Cho! (2002)% 1eviations of observe' val es of national income from *re'ictions base'

on this mo'el reveale' s*ecial historical;*olitical events% 4he confirmation of t!o

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im*ortant h *otheses in macroeconomics sing Chinese 'ata *rovi'es s **orting

evi'ence for both the h *othesis an' the reliabilit of the 'ata%

.%. amil H/*en'it re "atterns from Cross;Section 1ata

China Statistical Yearbook *rovi'es 'ata on total cons m*tion e/*en'it res, an'

e/*en'it res on foo', clothing, ho sing an' miscellaneo s items for r ral an' rban

*o* lations% #sing 'ata for r ral families in $ B$ Cho! ($ B5b) estimates linear

relations bet!een log e/*en'it res on the above fo r categories an' log total

e/*en'it res% 4he estimate' total e/*en'it re elasticities for China are similar to the

estimates for other 'evelo*ing economies an' the 'ifferences can be reasonabl

attrib te' to c lt ral an' environmental factors% rthermore, 'ata for $ B iel' similarestimates as the above estimates base' on $ B$ 'ata, as re*orte' in Cho! (2002, *% $ $)

4he stabilit of the *arameters estimate' in the t!o ears len's s **ort for both the

stabilit of Chinese cons mer behavior over s ch a long *erio' of time an' the reliabilit

of the 'ata se'%

.% An Aggregate "ro' ction nction for China

Cho! ($ .) ses official 'ata to constr ct a ca*ital stoc: series of China% 4ogether !ith

ann al 'ata from $ 52 to $ B. on national o t* t an' labor force, this series !as se' to

estimate a Cobb;1o glas *ro' ction f nction for total o t* t an' for the o t* t of each

of five sectors, agric lt re, in' str , constr ction, trans*ort an' tra'e% All *arameter

estimates are reasonable% Certain *ro*erties of the estimate' *ro' ction f nction for total

o t* t seem to ma:e goo' economic sense% irst, after acce*ting the h *othesis that the

e/*onents of ca*ital an' labor s m to nit , it is fo n' that the coefficients are

a**ro/imatel 0% an' 0% res*ectivel % 4his res lt agrees !ith -an:i!, Romer an' Keil

($ 2) !ho estimate' aggregate *ro' ction f nctions for a n mber of 'evelo*ing

economies% rthermore, the ca*ital e/*onent of 0% agrees !ith the res lt of a

regression of log(o t* tLlabor) on log(ca*italLlabor) sing official 'ata for state;o!ne'

in' strial enter*rises, as sho!n in Cho! ($ B5, *% $2.)% Secon'l , the interce*t term

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meas ring total factor *ro' ctivit has no increasing tren' * to $ > an' begins to

increase at abo t 2%B *ercent *er ear after reform starte' in $ > % 4his *oint is later

elaborate' in Cho! (2002, Cha*ter 5) !hen a longer time;series base' on official 'ata

!as available to estimate the *ro' ction f nction%

.%5 H/*laining &nflation b the Ratio of -one S **l to 4otal O t* t

Cho! ($ B>) s ccee'e' in e/*laining the rate of inflation in China from $ 5 to $ B.

sing an error;correction mo'el% 4he error correction mo'el 'etermines the rate of

change in the *rice level b its *ast change an' the change in the ratio of mone s **l to

o t* t, together !ith an error;correction term% 4he error;correction term is the 'eviation

in the *rece'ing *erio' of log *rice level from its e ilibri m level 'etermine' b the logof the ratio of mone s **l to real o t* t% 4his e ilibri m relation is calle' a

cointegration relation an' can be consistentl estimate' b a least s ares regression of

log *rice on log (mone s **l Lo t* t)% Note that ' ring most of the ears of the sam*le

*erio' China !as *racticing central *lanning an' et the retail *rice in'e/ !as affecte'

b the ratio of mone s **l to o t* t% 4he official in'e/ of retail *rices sho!s a $ %2

*ercent inflation in $ $ !hich can be easil e/*laine' b the s bstantial increase in

mone s **l an' es*eciall the ver large re' ction in real o t* t from $2$5, in $ 0

to B.B%> in $ $ (see 4able $ of Cho!, $ B>)% Hconomic theor an' acc rac of official

'ata again reinforce each other in this case%

.% Hffects of -onetar Shoc:s on O t* t an' "rices

As an e/tension of the st ' re*orte' in .%5, Cho! an' Shen (200 ) se a AR in the

logs of mone s **l , *rice level an' o t* t to e/*lain inflation an' to st ' the

res*onses of *rices an' o t* t to monetar shoc:s% 4he res lt from the estimate' im* lse

res*onses to monetar shoc:s agrees !ith the *ro*osition of -ilton rie'man ($ ) that

the res*onse of o t* t to mone shoc:s ta:es *lace earlier b t the effect is short;live'

!hile the res*onse of *rices occ rs later b t lasts longer% 4his st ' is ca*able of

e/*laining the increases in o t* t in 200. an' 200 an' the increase in *rices in 200 in


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China follo!ing a ra*i' increase in mone s **l in 2002 after several ears of fairl

slo! an' stea' increase in mone s **l * to 2002 an' the absence of inflation ' ring

these ears% 4he increase in mone s **l can be attrib te' to the fail re of the Chinese

government to raise the e/change rate of the R- % An n'erval e' R- le' to a large

e/*ort s r*l s an' a large inflo! of foreign reserves (to an acc m late' amo nt of over

00 billion 'ollars b the en' of 200 )% 4he increase in mone s **l is a res lt of *eo*le

sing foreign c rrenc to e/change for R- , an' not of the *olic of the "eo*le s an:%

4he Chinese government trie' to slo! 'o!n this +overheate' econom b

a'ministrative means s ch as restriction on the amo nt of cre'it to be e/ten'e' b ban:s

an' on ne! constr ction *ro3ects% H/tensive cre'it e/tension to finance constr ction in

rban 'evelo*ment !o l' not have occ rre' if the ban:s ha' not ha' the mone to len'

o t in the first *lace%

.%> Hstimating the Hconomic Doss of the Great Dea* an' the C lt ral Revol tion

constr cting an econometric mo'el consisting of an aggregate *ro' ction, an i'entit

for aggregate o t* t as the s m of cons m*tion an' investment, an e ation for ca*ital

stoc: as the s m of ca*ital stoc: in the *revio s ear *l s net investment an' an e ation

s*ecif ing the logarithm of total factor *ro' ctivit as a ran'om !al: !ith shift, Cho!

an' !an ($ ) an' !an an' Cho! ($ ) se a ' namic o*timi8ation mo'el to

e/*lain *er ca*ita o t* t, cons m*tion an' investment n'er the ass m*tion that o*timal

investment !as generate' b an economic *lanner ma/imi8ing an infinitel 'isco nte'

s m of f t re log *er ca*ita cons m*tion% 4he mo'el estimate' b official 'ata can

e/*lain the en'ogeno s variables reasonabl !ell% 4he time *aths generate' b

eliminating the shoc:s for the +abnormal ears of the Great Dea* or!ar' -ovement

an' the C lt ral Revol tion as a co nter;fact al e/*eriment *rovi'e sensible estimates of

the loss in terms of the en'ogeno s variables ' e to these t!o tragic *olitical events%

.%B 1eman' for e' cation

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4he st ' of 'eman' for e' cation in China b Cho! an' Shen (2005) !as *artl

motivate' b the stri:ing fact that the ratio of total s*en'ing on e' cation to G1"

increase' from .%5 in $ B to 5%2 in 2002% Kas s ch a ra*i' increase ' e to a change in

government *olic or to basic economic forces of 'eman'% 4he *a*er estimates 'eman'

f nctions for e' cation at the three levels of *rimar school, secon'ar school an' higher

e' cation an' for total enrollment in all three levels% 4he income elasticities as estimate'

b cross;*rovincial 'ata a**ear reasonable, being 0% for *rimar schools, 0%B for

secon'ar schools an' $%2 for higher e' cation% 4ime series 'ata from $ $ to 2002 !ere

se' to estimate *rice elasticities !hich t rne' o t to be abo t 0%. for all levels% 1eman'

for total enrollment is 'ivi'e' into 'eman' b non;government an' b government

so rces% 4he former 'e*en's on G1" an' relative *rice !hile the latter 'e*en's on

government reven e an' relative *rice% Reasonable estimates of the elasticities !ereobtaine'% 4he 'eman' e ations from these t!o com*onents can e/*lain the ra*i'

increase in the ratio of e' cation s*en'ing to G1" ver !ell% 4he fact that government

reven e from $ B to 2002 increase' more ra*i'l than G1" hel*s to e/*lain the ra*i'

increase in the ratio of government s*en'ing on e' cation to G1"% 4he small *rice

elasticit of 'eman' can e/*lain the increase in total e' cation s*en'ing in the co rse of

economic 'evelo*ment% As increase in income shifts the 'eman' c rve for e' cation

(st 'ent enrollment) *!ar' against an inelastic s **l , the relative *rice of e' cation

goes *% Kith a small *rice elasticit the increase in *rice lea's to an increase in total

s*en'ing% Given a 'eman' f nction for log enrollment 6 as a linear f nction of log

income F an' log *rice " !ith income an' *rice elasticit 'enote' b a an' M b

res*ectivel , the 'eman' for log (e' cation e/*en'it re) or log ("6) is the same f nction

!ith the coefficient of log " change' to $; b% 4he log of ("6LF) e als a constant P ( a ;$)

log F P ($; b) log "% &f income elasticit a is close to $ or larger an increase in income F

!ill have a small or a *ositive effect !hile the res lting increase in " ' e to limite'

s **l for e' cation services !ill have a *ositive effect on the ratio of e' cation

s*en'ing to national income% All *arameters of this mo'el are estimate' sing official

'ata%

.% H/*lanation of the Rate of Ret rn to Schooling

$$


12/23

Johnson an' Cho! ($ >) estimate e ations to e/*lain log !age of Chinese r ral an'

rban !or:ers in $ BB b log S ( ears of schooling), ears of e/*erience H, H s are',

an' ' mm variables re*resenting gen'er, minorit , Comm nist "art membershi*

follo!ing the classic !or: of -incer ($ > )% 4he rate of ret rn !as estimate' to be %02

*ercent *er a''itional ear of schooling an' .%. *ercent for rban !or:ers% S ch lo!

rates of ret rn are reasonable beca se !ages at the time !ere still s bstantiall controlle'

an' !ere not 'etermine' b mar:et forces% 4he estimate' effects of being a female (;

0%0B5), minorit (;0%0 b t not significant statisticall ) an' Comm nist "art

membershi* (P0%0 .) a**ear reasonable%

% H/am*les of Hrrors in Official 1ata

&n this section & *rovi'e e/am*les of inacc rate official statistics, some 'iscovere' !hile

'oing econometric anal sis of the Chinese econom %

irst, on the n mber of *ersons in the labor force, China Statistical Yearbook 1)) gives

(in 4able ;2 on *% ) the n mber of em*lo e' *ersons (in $0,000 *ersons) as 5 .. in

$ BB, 55.2 in $ B , . 0 in $ 0 an' > in $ $% 4he increase from $ B to $ 0

is obvio sl too large to be believable% &f !e e/amine the em*lo ment 'ata in China

Statistical Yearbook 1))4 (*% B ) !e fin' 55.2 for $ B , 5 > 0 for $ 0 an' 5B. 0 for

$ $ !ith no obvio s brea: in the 'ata% Since the State Statistics rea ma'e a ma3or

revision in the collection of 'ata, the 3 m* in the revise' 'ata (es*eciall in the

com*onent for *rimar in' str ) ma occ r beca se of the 'ifference in coverage or

metho' of collection, b t no e/*lanation of the 3 m* is given in the $ > Yearbook+ &f the

revise' 'ata are correct, then the 'ata for $ B an' before have to be in error%

As a secon' e/am*le, Cho! an' Shen (2005) in e/amining the 'ata on non;government

e/*en'it res for e' cation *oint o t that n'erestimation has res lte' from the fail re to

incl 'e contrib tions from overseas Chinese, es*eciall those living in 7ong ong% 4his

concl sion is base' on the first a thor s :no!le'ge of s*ecific large items that are

$2


13/23

e/cl 'e'% 4he n'erestimation is ' e to the lac: of coverage b the re*orting nits in the

1e*artment of H' cation !hich *rovi'es the 'ata in the Yearbook+ 4he 1e*artment of

H' cation 'oes not re ire e' cational instit tions to re*ort contrib tions from overseas

Chinese as non;government e/*en'it res on e' cation% er s bstantial amo nts from

overseas Chinese contrib te' for the constr ction school b il'ings, man name' after the

'onor, an' for visiting fac lt members at niversities an' for teachers in lo!er level

e' cational instit tions are not re*orte' as a *art of non;government e/*en'it res on

e' cation% As a 'efense for the official 'ata, it ma be sai' that non;government

e' cation s*en'ing as *rovi'e' b the Chinese National rea of Statistics covers onl

s*en'ing b Chinese nationals or instit tions, an' e/cl 'es s*en'ing b overseas

Chinese% #n'er this inter*retation there is no error< onl the 'efinition of s*en'ing is

more restricte'%

4he thir' is concerne' !ith statistical 'iscre*ancies in 'ata on cons m*tion% Statistical

'iscre*ancies almost al!a s e/ist !hen t!o 'ifferent so rces are em*lo e' to meas re

the same *henomenon% A stan'ar' case is in the meas rement of national income from

final e/*en'it res an' from *a ments to factors of *ro' ction% inal e/*en'it res consist

of cons m*tion, investment, government e/*en'it res, e/*orts min s im*orts% "a ments

to factors incl 'e !ages, rents, *rofits an' interests% 4he t!o metho's iel' 'ifferent

res lts, creating a statistical 'iscre*anc % A statistical 'iscre*anc can be fo n' !hen

cons m*tion is constr cte' for China s national income acco nt !hich is *artl base' on

retail sales 'ata as com*are' !ith s rve s of rban an' r ral ho sehol's% "er ca*ita

cons m*tion base' on the national income acco nt (N&A) can be m ch larger than that

base' on sam*le s rve s, both re*orte' in the Statistical Yearbook+ or e/am*le, sing

China Statistical Yearbook 1)) on 'ata for $ , N&A gives cons m*tion of resi'ence

(e/cl 'ing government cons m*tion) as .25B ($0,000 an) on *% 25, an' *o* lation as

$22.B ($0,000 *ersons) on *% , iel'ing *er ca*ita cons m*tion of 2 . an *er

*erson% 4he S rve 'ata give rban cons m*tion *er ca*ita as . $ %5 an on *% 2 an'

r ral cons m*tion *er ca*ita as $5>2%$ an on *% .$ % Since the fractions of rban an'

r ral *o* lation in $ are res*ectivel 0%2 .> an' 0%>0 . (on *% ), *er ca*ita

cons m*tion as a !eighte' mean is 22 2, !hich is onl B % *ercent of the above N&A

$.


14/23

estimate% & o!e this 'iscover to 7ol8 (200 ) !ho *oints o t that the val e of commo'it

cons m*tion from N&A e/cee's those base' the s rve s s bstantiall for man ears as

given in his 4able %

Cons m*tion re*orte' in the national income acco nt is larger than cons m*tion

obtaine' from sam*le s rve s *artl beca se it has a broa'er coverage% &t incl 'es

cons m*tion of goo's an' services *rovi'e' b the nits in !hich the cons mers !or:

an' not *ai' for b the cons mers themselves (s ch as *a ment in :in' an' *ossibl

me'ical e/*enses an' schooling for the chil'ren), home *ro' ction b the cons mers,

im*licit rent of their ho sing nits, an' all other goo's an' services not *ai' for%

Cons m*tion as re*orte' in sam*le s rve s incl 'es onl goo's an' services *ai' for b

the ho sehol's themselves% Allo!ing for s ch 'ifferences in coverage one ma still fin'it 'iffic lt to e/*lain the 'ifference b a factor of 0%B5 as given above% 7ol8 (200 ) tries

to reconcile the 'ifferences bet!een the t!o sets of 'ata an' cannot e/*lain the large

'ifferences%

5% Official Hstimate of the Rate of G1" Gro!th

A n mber of st 'ies have been * blishe' !hich are critical of *artic lar 'ata * blishe' in

the China Statistical Yearbook % See for e/am*le the ten *a*ers on 'ifferent as*ects of

Chinese economic statistics * blishe' in China $cono%ic (e ie- , vol% $2, No% (200$)

e'ite' b 4% G% Ra!s:i an' K% Qiao% 4here are also the o**osite vie!*oints of -a'ison

($ B) an' Carsten (200 b) concerning the *ossible overestimation of economic gro!th

b Chinese official statistics% &t is not the * r*ose of this *a*er to revie! the *oints of

each of these articles an' other relate' articles in the literat re% & !ill confine m

'isc ssion to certain 'iverse o*inions of the rate of gro!th of real o t* t in China%

4he rate of gro!th of G1" as estimate' b official 'ata is 'isc sse' b Ra!s:i (200$)

an' lein an' O8m c r (2002L200.)% 4he former is critical an' latter is s **ortive of the

official estimate% Ra!s:i (200$, 4able $) cites 'ata on energ se, rban formal

em*lo ment an' cons mer *rice in'e/ !hich gre! m ch more slo!l than the rate of

$


15/23

gro!th of G1" in the ears $ B;200$ to arg e for the overestimation of G1" b official

'ata% 7ol8 (200.) raises 'o bt abo t the above arg ment for 'ata inacc rac %

lein an' O8m c r (2002L200.) se a more com*rehensive set of $5 relate' time series

an' regress the rate of gro!th of G1" on fo r *rinci*al com*onents (linear combinations

that are m t all ncorrelate') e/tracte' from the rates of change of these $5 series, an'

fin' the relation to be close an' the regression coefficients to be reasonable% 4he $5 series

are electricit (:!h), coal (tons), oil (tons), steel (tons), freight (ton :m), civil aviation

(ton :m), long 'istance tele*hone calls, em*lo ment share of tertiar sector, gain o t* t,

e/*orts (const% ), im*orts (const% ), government s*en'ing ('eflate'), real !age,

inflation rate (c*i) an' livestoc: *ro' cts (tons)% 4he sam*le *erio' is from $ B0 to 2000%

lein an' O8m c r a**ear to be more convincing than Ra!s:i beca se the relate' series

se' are more com*rehensive an' the sam*le *erio' is longer%

Ra!s:i (200$) cites cas al evi'ence from statements of Chinese economists an' even

"remier Ih Rong8i abo t *ossible 'ata falsification from *olitical *ress re, b t also

*oints o t that the National Statistics rea has trie' to correct the *ossible over; or

n'er;re*orting of Chinese o t* t 'ata% &t is interesting to observe that the official gro!th

rates for 2002, 200. an' 200 remain as high as B%0, % an' %. res*ectivel !hile the

Chinese government o*enl claime' that the econom !as overheating in 200. an' 200

an' trie' to se macro;control *olicies to slo! it 'o!n% &f the National Statistics rea

follo!s *olitical !in's, ho! co l' its estimates for G1" gro!th be as high as re*orte' in

200. an' 200 ? &f the rate of gro!th of real G1" in $ ;200$ ha' been as lo! as

Ra!s:i (200$) s ggests, ho! co l' economic gro!th be increase' s ''enl to s ch high

rates in the follo!ing fe! ears? &f the official gro!th rates of 2002;200 are also

overestimates ho! can s ch overestimates of gro!th be maintaine' for a si/ ear *erio'

!itho t ma:ing the estimate of level in 200 loo: ver nreasonable, given the initial

estimate of real G1" in $ B?

Fo ng (200.) also claims that the official estimate of the ann al rate of gro!th of real

G1" an' of in' strial o t* t from $ >B to $ B !as abo t t!o *ercentage *oint too

high% romChina Statistical Yearbook 1))) , 4able $.;$2, & have fo n' 'ata on o t* t of

$5


16/23

2. *ro' cts, incl 'ing (a) cons mer non;' rables (chemical fiber, arn, cloth, sil:,

*a*er an' *a*er boar's, s gar, vegetable oil, beer an' cigarettes), (b) 5 cons mer

' rables (refrigerators, electric fans, ho sehol' !ashing machines, color television sets

an' cameras), (c) B cons mer an' *ro' cer goo's (electricit , h 'ro*o!er, steal

*ro' cts, cement, *late glass, *lastics, motor vehicles an' tr c:s) an' (') constr ction, all

in *h sical nits% #sing the o t* ts of gro * (a) an' (b) combine', !eighte' b their

*rices in $ B> (as fo n' in China Co%%odity "rices Statistical Yearbook 1)*), **% $>5;

, s **lemente' b **% $>2; ), iel's an e/*onential gro!th rate of 0%0 $2 < gro * (c)

*rovi'es a mean gro!th rate of 0%0 .5 an' constr ction (') gre! in terms of com*lete'

floor s*ace at a rate of 0%$0. % Since (') is $2%. *ercent of in' strial o t* t, !e ta:e a

!eighte' mean of the above three gro!th rates !ith the res*ective !eights of % .B5, %

.B5 an' %$2.% 4he res lt is 0%0 as com*are' !ith the official gro!th rate of 0%$$2 forin' strial o t* t%

4here are t!o so rces of 'o!n!ar' bias in m estimation of the gro!th rate of 0%0 for

in' strial o t* t% irst is the se of $ B> *rices rather than *rices of earlier ears as se'

in the official in'e/, beca se earlier *rices !o l' give larger !eights to cons mer

' rables !hich have gro!n more ra*i'l % Secon', an' more im*ortantl , the metho'

ignores the intro' ction of man ne! *ro' cts ' ring the t!ent ; ear *erio' s ch as

com* ters !hich have gro!n ra*i'l % Allo!ing for these t!o so rces of n'erestimation

!o l' raise o r estimate of 0%0 easil to 0%$$2 an' contra'icts the claim of Fo ng that

the official gro!th rate of 0%$$2 is an overestimate b abo t 2 *ercentage *oint%

Fo ng s main *oint is that if !e 'eflate nominal o t* t b its im*licit 'eflator to obtain

real o t* t, the estimate' increase in real o t* t is too large beca se the 'eflator

n'erestimates the tr e inflation rate% re*lacing the o t* t 'eflator b another official

*rice in'e/ for each of the three sectors as given in his 4able . ( sing the farm an'

si'eline *ro' cts * rchasing *rice in'e/ for the *rimar sector, sing the e/;factor

in' strial *rice in'e/ for the secon'ar sector an' sing the service *rice com*onent of

the cons mer *rice in'e/ for the tertiar sector), the official gro!th rates of real G1" an'

of the its non;agric lt ral com*onents from $ >B to $ B !ere re' ce' res*ectivel from

$


17/23

%0 $ an' %$0 to %0> an' %0B$% 4he ann al gro!th rates of real G1" accor'ing to the

CSY estimate an' alternative estimate are given in ig re 2 of Fo ng (200.)%

4he most 'ramatic 'ifference bet!een the official an' Fo ng s estimates of G1" gro!th

occ rs in $ B !hen the latter estimate sho!s a negative 5%2 *ercent an' the former

sho!s a *ositive *ercent% 4he negative gro!th is attrib te' (*% $2.2) to +the forces that

*reci*itate' the *olitical nrest of that ear% 4his estimate 'oes not seem *la sible for at

least t!o reasons% irst, there !as no sign of significant economic 'isr *tion in the first

five months of the ear% "eacef l 'emonstrations 'i' not start ntil A*ril an' the

4iananmen &nci'ent occ rre' on J ne , $ B % Accor'ing to CSY China s real G1" !as

gro!ing at $$%. *ercent in $ BB an' a re' ction to the official rate of %$ *ercent in $ B

!as a ver large re' ction% Ke can reasonabl ass me that for the first si/ months of$ B , real G1" !as increasing at least at > *ercent ann all as com*are' !ith $$%.

*ercent the ear before% 4o get a negative gro!th of ;5%2 *ercent for the entire ear !o l'

re ire an ann al rate of 'ecline in o t* t of ;$>% *ercent ( >;$>% @L2T;5%2) in the

secon' half of $ B , !hich is highl nli:el % Hven if !e acce*t the a'3 ste' rate of

gro!th of %. *ercent *rovi'e' b Fo ng for $ BB (as rea' from his ig re 2) an'

ass me a *ercent ann al gro!th in the first half of $ B , to arrive at a negative gro!th

of ;5%2 *ercent for the entire ear !o l' re ire an ann al rate of 'ecline of ;$ % *ercent

in the secon' half of $ B , !hich is also highl nli:el %

Secon', to *rovi'e 'irect evi'ence of *ositive gro!th of in' strial o t* t an'

constr ction, & have com* te' the ratios of o t* ts in $ B to o t* ts in $ BB for the

same list of 2. *ro' cts that !ere se' in com* ting the above in' strial o t* t in'e/%

4he ratios are res*ectivel (a) $%$. , $%02 , $%00>, $%025, $%050, $%0B>, $%0.$, 0% B0,

$%0.2 (b) 0%BB5, $%$$0, 0%>B , 0% 0 , 0%>B5, (c) $%0>., $%0B., $%0. , $%00$, $%$5B, $%0B$

0% 05, 0% 0$ an' (') $%0.5% As in section && & estimate the combine' gro!th rate for

gro *s (a) an' (b) b the ratio of the total val e of the $$ *ro' cts (omitting three

*ro' cts lac:ing in *rice 'ata) in $ B to the total val e in $ BB, both eval ate' at the

$ B> *rices given earlier% 4he res*ective val es are $ >%5> billion an' $ 5% > billion,

giving a gro!th rate of $%0$.% 4his gro!th rate for gro *s (a) an' (b) combine', the mean

$>


18/23

gro!th rate of $%0.0 for the thir' gro * (c) an' the rate $%0.5 for constr ction (!hich

acco nte' for $2%. *ercent of the secon'ar in' str in $ BB as sho!n in 4able 2 belo!)

are consistent !ith the re*orte' *ositive gro!th rate of 0%0 for G1" given b CSY+

4he strongl contra'ict the claim of a negative rate of gro!th of G1" b as m ch as

;5%2 *ercent accor'ing to the a'3 ste' estimate of Fo ng%

Cho! (200 ) attem*te' to re*ro' ce the estimates of real G1" for $ BB an' $ B b the

metho' of Fo ng an' to *in*oint !here the might lea' to inacc rate res lts% 4able $

s mmari8es the 'ata an' the re*ro' ction%

&nsert 4able $%@

4able $ O t* ts an' their Rates of Change in $ BB an' $ B b Fo ng s -etho'

G1" "rimar Secon'ar Constr ction 4ertiar$ BB

Nominal val e $ 2B%. .B.$%0 5B>%2 B$0%0 5$0%$$ B

Nominal val e $ 0 %2 22B%0 >2>B%0 > %0 5 0.%2

"rice in'e/

($ BBT$%0)

$%$50$ $%$B $%$B $%2.

O t* t in $ BB

*rices

$ $>.%> . > %2 $. % %5 . 0%

O t* t

Change,$ BBT$

0% 5 0% 5 5 0% .$5 0%B2 5 0% 2

Notes9 1ata on nominal o t* ts are fo n' in CSY 1)) (4able 2; )% "rice in'e/ for

*rimar in' str is * rchasing *rice in'e/ for farm *ro' cts ($ >BT$00) given in CSY1)) (4able B;$$) converte' to ($ BBT$%0)% "rice in'e/ for secon'ar in' str is e/;

factor *rice in'e/ of in' strial *ro' cts given in CSY 1)) (4able B;$2)% "rice in'e/ for

tertiar in' str is the *rice in'e/ of the service com*onent of the cons mer *rice in'e/

(CSY 1))0 , 4able >;$>)% $ B O t* t in $ BB *rices for each of the three com*onents of

$B


19/23

G1" is obtaine' b 'eflating nominal o t* t b the corres*on'ing *rice in'e/% G1" in

$ BB *rices is the s m of the above three com*onents%

4he res lting 5%$5 *ercent 'ecline in real G1" is ma'e * of a 'ecline of %$ *ercent in

the *rimar in' str , %B *ercent in the secon'ar in' str an' .%.$ *ercent in the

tertiar in' str % & have *ointe' o t in the last *aragra*h that a negative gro!th of %B

*ercent for secon'ar in' str is a ver nreasonable estimate% rthermore, if !e 'eflate

the nominal val e of constr ction > %0 in $ B b the e/;factor in' strial *rice in'e/

of $%$B ($ BBT$%0) to obtain its val e %5 in $ BB *rices, !e obtain a rate of change of

$;0%B2 5 T;0%$>.5 for constr ction as given b Fo ng s metho'% 4his allege' negative

$> *ercent rate of 'ecline in constr ction is highl inconsistent !ith the re*orte' rate of

increase in com*lete' floor s*ace b .%5 *ercent% 4he calc lation for the gro!th rate in$ B *in*oints one s*ecific large error res lting from sing Fo ng s metho'% 4herefore

the metho' of Fo ng (200.) for estimating the rate of change of real o t* t can be ver

nreliable% &n fact the large 'iscre*anc bet!een Fo ng s estimate of negative 5%2

*ercent an' the official estimate of *ositive *ercent for the ear $ B alone contrib tes

to almost half a *ercentage *oint in the 'ifference bet!een the t!o estimates of the

average ann al gro!th rate for the entire sam*le *erio' $ >B;$ B%

% Concl sion

Altho gh Chinese official 'ata have been !i'el se' for economic research * blishe' in

referee' 3o rnals, there are still critics !ho claim that the 'ata ma be falsifie' for

*olitical * r*oses% 4his *a*er *oints o t that staff members of the Chinese National

Statistical rea in ei3ing an' in its *rovincial an' cit offices are obligate' b la! to

*rovi'e acc rate statistics, that the statistics are se' for national economic *lanning as

re*orte' b the "remier to the National "eo*le s Congress an' rea' b observers all over

the !orl', that it is 'iffic lt to falsif national o t* t an' other statistics for a long *erio'

an' that even in selecte' ears bet!een $ an' 2005 official ann al G1" gro!th rates

a**ear reasonable% &t reaches the concl sion that the official 'ata are b an' large

reliable, grante' navoi'able errors in certain cases, b 'ra!ing from the a thor s o!n

$


20/23

e/*erience in sing them for man economic st 'ies !here 'ata acc rac an' the

confirmation of !ell;establishe' economic h *otheses reinforce each other% &t e/amines

certain critics of official estimates of o t* t gro!th rates an' e/*oses the errors in the

alternative estimates% Nee'less to sa , an serio s scholar sing the Chinese official 'ata,

as in sing an other 'ata, !o l' nee' to e/ercise ca tion in his research even if the 'ata

are not * r*osel falsifie'%

Ac:no!le'gement9 4he a thor !o l' li:e to than: Carsten 7ol8 an' three anon mo s

referees for val able comments on an earlier 'raft of this *a*er an' the Gregor C Cho!

Hconometric Research "rogram of "rinceton #niversit for research s **ort%

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21/23

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2$


22/23

lein, Da!rence R% an' S% O8m c r, +4he estimation of China s economic gro!th rate%

.ournal of $cono%ic and Social easure%ent, 2B (2002L200.), $B>;202%

!an, F% % an' Cho!, Gregor C% +Hstimating economic effects of *olitical movements

in China, .ournal of Co%&arati e $cono%ics, ol% 2. ($ ), **% $ 2;20B%

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China Statis% " b% 7o se, ann al iss es%

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Yearbook (in Chinese, Ihongg o K 3ia 4ong3i Nian3ian)% ei3ing9 China Statis% " b%

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