Argyle Independent School District

Demographic Update

Fall 2016

Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions- Dallas-Fort Worth MSA

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UnemploymentRate

AUGUST2016USATexas

DentonCountyDFW

4.1%

5.0%

3.7%

7% 5% 4% 3%6%

AnnualJobGrowthRateAUGUST2016

DFW3.5% 1.7%

0% 2% 3% 4%1%

USA1.6% Texas

Existing Home Inventory (1.8 Month’s Supply) 13%

Denton County Housing Market Year Over Year Comparisons

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13%

13%

13%

24%

-5%

YTD Sales (4,297 YTD Sales Sept 2016)

Number of Listings (802 Sept 2016)

Average Price ($256,088 Sept 2016)

Median Price ($232,000 Sept 2016)

Days on the Market (35 Days)

AISD Home Sales Year-to-Date Home Sales by Transaction Type

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•  The district had 521 home sales in 2016, and roughly half were of new homes

•  The average sale price in 2016 for a new home is $384,501

•  The average sale price in 2016 for an existing home is $537,102

Source: Metrostudy and Denton County Deed Transactions

New Home Sale, 264, 50.67%

Regular Resale, 242, 46.45%

Foreclosure, 7, 1.34%

REO Sale, 8, 1.54%

YTD 2016 Home Sales

by Type

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q16

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Rank DistrictName AnnualStarts AnnualClosings VDL Future1 FriscoISD 2,755 2,597 3,637 7,8282 DentonISD 2,055 1,977 2,400 17,0003 ProsperISD 2,417 1,814 4,227 28,2784 LewisvilleISD 1,358 1,295 1,637 3,8495 NorthwestISD 1,464 1,247 2,112 20,9916 LiAleElmISD 1,044 1,204 1,381 4,8177 DallasISD 1,361 1,154 2,484 6,0108 EagleMt.-SaginawISD 850 906 783 20,4629 KellerISD 772 844 931 1,88110 RockwallISD 965 721 1,949 8,14311 MansfieldISD 765 674 1,054 6,32412 CrowleyISD 769 666 612 9,39213 McKinneyISD 784 625 1,683 5,70114 WylieISD 733 606 889 4,76915 ForneyISD 611 578 818 14,60116 AllenISD 580 497 1,104 1,52917 CoppellISD 482 469 728 35518 BurlesonISD 426 466 564 3,18819 PlanoISD 476 453 970 2,77520 WaxahachieISD 467 435 661 10,06421 MidlothianISD 549 431 1,127 20,53422 HEBISD 413 418 296 4,89623 GarlandISD 501 414 722 3,78124 DesotoISD 410 408 328 1,97225 ArgyleISD 332 380 590 5,20926 FortWorthISD 342 347 927 4,59427 MelissaISD 349 320 716 5,13228 AledoISD 285 303 760 15,76229 PrincetonISD 359 270 85 3,62530 RoyseCityISD 206 262 614 10,159

Argyle ISD Housing Activity

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Argyle ISD

•  Argyle ISD is on pace to start and close more than 320 homes for the second straight year

•  AISD had the most 3rd quarter closings in more than 5 years

•  New home inventory is healthy with roughly 6 month’s supply

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AnnualStarts AnnualClosings AvgInventory

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q 15 15 55 67 70 1Q 12 19 23 57 95 2Q 18 46 36 97 74 2Q 10 15 22 76 78 3Q 18 13 77 115 102 3Q 24 27 68 80 114 4Q 19 55 67 86 4Q 16 18 52 93

Total 70 129 235 365 246 Total 62 79 165 306 287

District Housing Overview

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•  Argyle ISD has approximately 600 vacant lots available to build on

•  The district currently has more than 5,200 future planned lots

Canyon Falls Town of Argyle/Town of Northlake

•  1,835 total lots •  725 lots in NWISD •  1,110 lots in AISD

•  202 occupied •  21 U/C •  216 VDL •  649 futures

•  Groundwork underway on 86 lots, first 50 delivering early 2017

•  Building 110-130 homes a year •  $300K - $550K

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Groundwork underway

Northwest ISD

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•  3,218 total lots •  774 lots within NWISD •  2,444 lots within AISD

•  329 occupied •  60 U/C •  142 VDL

•  Building 140-150 in 2017 •  387 lots under review •  $270K-$500K

Harvest Town of Argyle/Town of Northlake

Northwest ISD

The Lakes of Argyle Town of Argyle

•  Formerly the Highlands of Argyle •  139 total lots •  Groundwork on Phase 1 with 86

lots starting early 2017 •  Phase 1 hoping to deliver fall 2017 •  Anticipate building 20 in 2017,

and 40 in 2018 •  $450K-$650K

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5T Ranch Town of Argyle

•  90 total lots •  54 futures •  28 VDL •  8 homes under construction •  First residents early 2017 •  Build-out by early 2020 •  Building 20-25 homes a year •  $650K-$1M (Average $750K’s)

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Denton ISD

Heritage Fields Town of Northlake

•  955 total future lots •  Preliminary plat approved for

Phases 1-5 •  No final plat for Phase 1

submitted at this time •  Groundwork could start in

Phase 1 by mid 2017, pending City of Northlake approval

•  Homebuilding starting 2018 •  $300K-$1M

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Northwest ISD

Denton ISD

The Trails of Argyle and Waterbrook Town of Argyle

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•  Rezoning request denied by the Town of Argyle

•  Developer listed property for sale, no movement at this time

•  Rezoning approved by the Town of Argyle

•  No plats submitted at this time •  105 total acres •  287 future single family lots •  23 acres for commercial and

grocery anchor

Trailwood Terrace and Montalcino Estates City of Flower Mound

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•  309 total lots •  Groundwork underway on

Phase 1 with 157 lots, delivering Feb 2017

•  First residents fall 2017 •  Anticipate building 60-70

homes a year •  $350K - $450K

•  178 total lots •  126 futures •  17 occupied •  26 VDL •  1 under construction •  Phase 2 with 63 lots record plat pending

with the City of Flower Mound •  Groundwork could start on phase 2 by

early 2017, pending city approval •  Building 5-10 homes a year •  $750K - $1 M+

Northwest ISD

Additional Single-Family Housing Update

Development MunicipalityLocaTon TotalHomes Status

Avalon@Argyle* TownofArgyle(NearCanyonFalls)

334 ZoningApprovedPrelimPlatsubmiAed

SkylineHills TownofArgyle(EastofI-35,NorthofOldJusanRd)

36 RezoningUnderReview

LibertyPointe TownofArgyleETJ(NorthofLibertyChrisaanSchool)

23 PreliminaryPlatUnderReview

CreekMeadows TownofNorthlake(OffFaughtRoad,SWcornerofAISD)

26 FinalPlatPhase1Approved

HillTopHeights CityofDentonETJ(HilltopRoad&MacawayDrive)

5 LotsforSale

RedBirdRidge CityofDentonETJ(NorthofOakRidgeLanenearFincherRoad)

24 GroundworkUnderway

Fincher’sBend CityofDentonETJ(Southof1830,WestofFincherRd)

23 3HomesU/C,7homesoccupied

TOTALS 471

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*DevelopmentdoesnotfallwithinAISD

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level

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•  Argyle ISD will enroll more than 3,300 students by 2019 •  5 year growth = 1,839 students

•  2021/22 enrollment = 4,276 students

•  10 year growth = 3,740 students

•  2026/27 enrollment = 6,177 students

*Yellowbox=largestgradeperyear*Greenbox=secondlargestgradeperyear

Year(OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth Total%2012/13 9 33 92 120 120 120 117 126 155 168 165 172 173 185 152 1,907 2013/14 16 30 124 99 126 139 132 132 151 164 172 168 171 179 180 1,983 76 4.0%2014/15 14 27 112 141 110 151 155 144 151 170 177 176 177 178 180 2,063 80 4.0%2015/16 10 35 136 131 157 144 168 176 160 173 202 193 194 186 178 2,243 180 8.7%2016/17 4 37 141 170 148 173 164 188 223 185 196 216 204 197 191 2,437 194 8.6%2017/18 4 37 155 171 201 181 195 185 222 254 211 212 231 211 200 2,670 233 9.6%2018/19 4 37 171 186 209 241 206 222 218 255 295 228 227 237 211 2,947 277 10.4%2019/20 4 37 205 222 233 272 282 243 266 262 301 319 246 233 237 3,362 415 14.1%2020/21 4 37 236 256 266 291 313 324 292 306 309 328 335 252 233 3,782 420 12.5%2021/22 4 37 271 283 307 333 335 360 389 327 361 337 338 342 252 4,276 494 13.1%2022/23 4 37 293 312 325 368 373 369 414 428 373 393 344 343 342 4,718 442 10.3%2023/24 4 37 316 337 349 390 405 407 406 455 471 399 393 351 343 5,063 345 7.3%2024/25 4 37 348 373 371 384 429 437 448 447 491 504 403 397 351 5,424 361 7.1%2025/26 4 37 376 397 410 408 422 463 481 493 483 525 509 407 397 5,812 388 7.2%2026/27 4 37 384 421 437 451 449 456 509 529 532 517 530 514 407 6,177 365 6.3%

Ten Year Forecast By Campus – Scenario 1

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2018 & 2019 grade reconfigurations help the district accommodate anticipated future student growth and utilize existing capacity prior to future facilities coming on-line

2018/19Hilltop=PreK-2ndAIS=3rd-4thMS=5th-8thAHS=9th-12th

2017/18Hilltop=PreK-3rdAIS=4th-5thMS=6th-8thAHS=9th-12th

2016/17Hilltop=PreK-3rdAIS=4th-5thMS=6th-8thAHS=9th-12th

2019/2020&BeyondNewElementary=PreK-5thHilltop=PreK-2ndAIS=3rd-5thMS=6th-8thAHS=9th-12th

History Current ENROLLMENTPROJECTIONSCAMPUS 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

HILLTOPELEMENTARYSCHOOL 781 673 749 607 449 513 581 625 672 730 789 829NEWELEMENTARY(FALL2019) 0 0 0 0 531 611 681 735 792 840 888 929ELEMENTARYTOTALS 781 673 749 607 980 1,124 1,262 1,360 1,464 1,570 1,677 1,758ElementaryAbsoluteChange 71 -108 76 -142 373 144 138 98 104 106 107 81ElementaryPercentChange 10.00% -13.83% 11.29% -18.96% 61.45% 14.69% 12.28% 7.77% 7.65% 7.24% 6.82% 4.83%ARGYLEINTERMEDIATESCHOOL 337 352 380 447 518 603 668 721 781 813 840 881INTERMEDIATETOTALS 337 352 380 447 518 603 668 721 781 813 840 881IntermediateAbsoluteChange 42 15 28 67 71 85 65 53 60 32 27 41IntermediatePercentChange 14.24% 4.45% 7.95% 17.63% 15.88% 16.41% 10.78% 7.93% 8.32% 4.10% 3.32% 4.88%ARGYLEMIDDLESCHOOL 374 604 687 990 829 907 1,077 1,215 1,332 1,386 1,457 1,570MIDDLESCHOOLTOTALS 374 604 687 990 829 907 1,077 1,215 1,332 1,386 1,457 1,570MiddleSchoolAbsoluteChange 27 230 83 303 -161 78 170 138 117 54 71 113MiddleSchoolPercentChange 7.78% 61.50% 13.74% 44.10% -16.26% 9.41% 18.74% 12.81% 9.63% 4.05% 5.12% 7.76%ARGYLEHIGHSCHOOL 752 808 854 903 1,035 1,148 1,269 1,422 1,486 1,655 1,838 1,968HIGHSCHOOLTOTALS 752 808 854 903 1,035 1,148 1,269 1,422 1,486 1,655 1,838 1,968HighSchoolAbsoluteChange 41 56 46 49 132 113 121 153 64 169 183 130HighSchoolPercentChange 5.77% 7.45% 5.69% 5.74% 14.62% 10.92% 10.54% 12.06% 4.50% 11.37% 11.06% 7.07%DISTRICTTOTALS 2,244 2,437 2,670 2,947 3,362 3,782 4,276 4,718 5,063 5,424 5,812 6,177DistrictAbsoluteChange 181 193 233 277 415 420 494 442 345 361 388 365DistrictPercentChange 8.77% 8.60% 9.56% 10.37% 14.08% 12.49% 13.06% 10.34% 7.31% 7.13% 7.15% 6.28%

History Current ENROLLMENTPROJECTIONSCAMPUS 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

HILLTOPELEMENTARYSCHOOL 781 673 749 607 449 513 581 625 672 730 789 829NEWELEMENTARY(FALL2019) 0 0 0 0 531 611 681 735 792 840 888 929ELEMENTARYTOTALS 781 673 749 607 980 1,124 1,262 1,360 1,464 1,570 1,677 1,758ElementaryAbsoluteChange 71 -108 76 -142 373 144 138 98 104 106 107 81ElementaryPercentChange 10.00% -13.83% 11.29% -18.96% 61.45% 14.69% 12.28% 7.77% 7.65% 7.24% 6.82% 4.83%ARGYLEINTERMEDIATESCHOOL 337 352 380 669 518 603 668 721 781 813 840 881INTERMEDIATETOTALS 337 352 380 669 518 603 668 721 781 813 840 881IntermediateAbsoluteChange 42 15 28 289 -151 85 65 53 60 32 27 41IntermediatePercentChange 14.24% 4.45% 7.95% 76.05% -22.57% 16.41% 10.78% 7.93% 8.32% 4.10% 3.32% 4.88%ARGYLEMIDDLESCHOOL 374 604 687 768 829 907 1,077 1,215 1,332 1,386 1,457 1,570MIDDLESCHOOLTOTALS 374 604 687 768 829 907 1,077 1,215 1,332 1,386 1,457 1,570MiddleSchoolAbsoluteChange 27 230 83 81 61 78 170 138 117 54 71 113MiddleSchoolPercentChange 7.78% 61.50% 13.74% 11.79% 7.94% 9.41% 18.74% 12.81% 9.63% 4.05% 5.12% 7.76%ARGYLEHIGHSCHOOL 752 808 854 903 1,035 1,148 1,269 1,422 1,486 1,655 1,838 1,968HIGHSCHOOLTOTALS 752 808 854 903 1,035 1,148 1,269 1,422 1,486 1,655 1,838 1,968HighSchoolAbsoluteChange 41 56 46 49 132 113 121 153 64 169 183 130HighSchoolPercentChange 5.77% 7.45% 5.69% 5.74% 14.62% 10.92% 10.54% 12.06% 4.50% 11.37% 11.06% 7.07%DISTRICTTOTALS 2,244 2,437 2,670 2,947 3,362 3,782 4,276 4,718 5,063 5,424 5,812 6,177DistrictAbsoluteChange 181 193 233 277 415 420 494 442 345 361 388 365DistrictPercentChange 8.77% 8.60% 9.56% 10.37% 14.08% 12.49% 13.06% 10.34% 7.31% 7.13% 7.15% 6.28%

Ten Year Forecast By Campus – Scenario 2

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2018 & 2019 grade reconfigurations help the district accommodate anticipated future student growth and utilize existing capacity prior to future facilities coming on-line

2018/19Hilltop=PreK-2ndAIS=3rd-5thMS=6th-8thAHS=9th-12th

2017/18Hilltop=PreK-3rdAIS=4th-5thMS=6th-8thAHS=9th-12th

2016/17Hilltop=PreK-3rdAIS=4th-5thMS=6th-8thAHS=9th-12th

2019/2020&BeyondNewElementary=PreK-5thHilltop=PreK-2ndAIS=3rd-5thMS=6th-8thAHS=9th-12th

Summary

•  Denton County’s unemployment rate is currently below 4%.

•  Strong growth in the DFW housing market is trending into Argyle ISD and will likely continue for the next 10 years.

•  Argyle ISD is on pace to start and close more than 320 new homes for the second straight year.

•  Argyle ISD is expected to reach 3,300 students by 2019.

•  AISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,800 students in the next 5 years.

•  2021/22 enrollment projection: 4,276 students.

•  Ten year enrollment growth of 3,740 students with total district enrollment of 6,177 in the year 2026/27.

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