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Arlington Police DepartmentCrime Management
Ron Andrews
Blake Robinson
Advisors: Bill Edmonds, Jim Mallard & Chief Bowman
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Perplexing the mind?• Where would crime incidences only occur during the day (up till 10:00pm) ?
and• At a rate of four times the surrounding areas?
and• Mostly affect motor vehicles?
– Hint: Data Analysis Intuition & cell 206
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Agenda• Executive Summary
– Nature of Project
• APD Overview– Primary Goals
• Current Operations• Geographical Information System• Cell & Grid Development• Statistical & Data Analysis
– Incident Concentration
• Model Development– Assignment Network (Pure Network)
• Recommendations & Results
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Executive Summary
• Management of Crime• Goal: Reduction of Crime Incidents by
25% over the next 3 years• Insight into class one crimes (burglary,
theft, murder, homicides and rape) and raw data
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APD Overview
• Crime Triangle• Over 300,000 incidents per year– Approx: 40,000 crime related (≈13%)
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Current Operations
• 4 Police Districts– North, South, East, West– Police Station
• How police incidences are recorded • Incidences are assigned priorities • Insight into crime by location limited
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Geographical Information System• G.I.S is a system that captures, stores, analyzes, manages
and presents data with reference to geographic location• Provides detailed information which is mapable • How do you effective redraw each district boundary line
to effectively serve each area?
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Grid & Cell Development
• Total Cells: 472 • ½ Mile cell structure • 1000 feet cell Structure• Euclidean distance at centroid
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Statistical & Data Analysis
• Bar Chart• Scatter Chart• Arlington total cell statistics• Outlier Cell 206• Incident Concentration
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1 17 33 49 65 81 97 1131291451611771932092252412572732893053213373533693854014174334494650
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Bar Chart: Incident Totals
Series1
Cell Number
Incid
ents
Per
Cel
l
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
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60
80
100
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Scatter Plot: Incident Totals
Series1
Cell Number
Num
ber o
f Inc
iden
ts
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Model Development
• District Boundaries• Constraints (can be ambiguous)– Distance– Time– Volume– Political – Operational
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Model Development Cont.
• Assignment Network (Pure Network)• 1888 Variables• 476 Constraints• 1 Objective Function
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Recommendations & Results• Plans to help reduce crime incidents in target
location:– Immediate Impact
• Police towers• Higher Police presence• Reminding safety cards on vehicle windshields
– Long Term• Centralized and monitored entrance to mall• Parking Garage vs Parking Lot
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Recommendations & Results Cont.
• Plans for utilization of assignment network model:–Minor changes in district boundaries