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ASIA & PACIFIC PV MARKET OUTLOOK
Solar Asset Management Asia24 – 25 June 2015, Tokyo Conference Centre Ariake, Tokyo
Takehiro Kawahara
24 June 2015
1
Note: A conservative and optimistic forecast has been developed for each country. It is unlikely that all countries will comein at the conservative or optimistic end, so for the global forecast, conservative is (sum of conservative country forecasts + 25%*(sum of optimistic – conservative forecasts). Global optimistic forecast is sum of conservative country forecasts + 75%*(sum of optimistic – conservative forecasts). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PV NEW BUILD BY YEAR, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST TO 2017 (CONSERVATIVE)
6.6GW 7.7GW
18.2GW
28.5GW30.7GW
40.0GW45.0GW
55.5GW61.0GW 61.3GW
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Western Europe Eastern Europe Japan USA China India Rest of World
24 June 2015
2
H1 2015 LCOE ($/MWH) – APAC – COUNTRY RANGESUTILITY-SCALE PV (NO TRACKING)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
AustraliaChinaIndia
MalaysiaThailand
PhilippinesIndonesia
VietnamJapan
LCOE range H1 2015 H2 2014
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
24 June 2015
3
Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE
1988
1976
19982004
2014
2008
m=24.3%
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
His
toric
al p
rice
(US
D/W
)
Cumulative production (MW)
Crystalline Si PV module
Solar PV module experience curve: 24% cost reduction for every doubling of capacity
24 June 2015
4
CONTENTS
Australia
China
Southeast Asia: Thailand, The Philippines
24 June 2015
AUSTRALIA
6
Source: Solarchoice, BSW-Solar, METI, California Solar Initiative, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PUBLIC BENCHMARKS OF RESIDENTIAL PV SYSTEM CAPEX, USD/W (DC)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Q12008
Q32008
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
Q32012
Q12013
Q32013
Q12014
Q32014
Germany California Japan Chinese multi module Australia (3kW)
24 June 2015
7
Structural demand changes in Australia Total small PV systems in Australia
100 TWh
150 TWh
200 TWh
250 TWh
06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Historical
20102011
20122013
2014
Australia National Electricity Market demand forecasts, 2010 – 2014
0.0m
0.2m
0.4m
0.6m
0.8m
1.0m
1.2m
1.4m
1.6m
0k
50k
100k
150k
200k
250k
300k
350k
400k
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Australia now has nearly 1.4 million small PV systems on the grid
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Annual Cumulative
STRUCTURAL POWER DEMAND CHANGES IN LINE WITH PENETRATION OF SMALL PV SYSTEMS
24 June 2015
8
FORECAST PV SYSTEM CONNECTIONS IN AUSTRALIA, 2014-30
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY SECTORANNUAL (MW) CUMULATIVE (GW)
CONNECTIONS BY SECTORANNUAL (THOUSAND) CUMULATIVE (MILLION)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Commercial annual Residential annual
Residential cumulative Commercial cumulative
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Commercial annual Residential annual
Residential cumulative Commercial cumulative
24 June 2015
9
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
FORECAST RESIDENTIAL PV MARKET PENETRATION IN AUSTRALIA (% OF NATURAL BUILDING STOCK)
13%
7%
25%30%
9% 10%
18%
33%
40%44%
53%
24% 22%
41%
59%64%
55%
70%
52%
44%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA
2013
2020
2030
24 June 2015
10
Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVECOMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE
1988
1976
19982004
2014
2008
2010
H1 2014
m=21.6%
m=24.3%
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
His
toric
al p
rice
(US
D/W
, US
D/W
h)
Cumulative production (MW, MWh)
Crystalline Si PV module
Li-ion EV battery pack
24 June 2015
11
AUSTRALIA SUMMARY
● PV system price dropped after subsidy cuts. It resulted in significant penetration of small-scale PV systems in the country.
● Electricity demand pattern has been changing due to penetration of residential PV.
● The energy storage system prices will likely go down further, however, a PV system without energy storage will remain a home owners cheapest energy source until the late 2020’s.
24 June 2015
CHINA
13
Source: National Energy Administration, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CHINA’S 2015 QUOTA FOR PV, BY PROVINCE
Province 2015 quota (MW) Including quota for ‘PV for Poverty Reduction’ (MW)1 Hebei 1,200 3002 Shanxi 650 2003 Inner Mongolia 8004 Liaoning 3005 Jilin 3006 Heilongjiang 3007 Jiangsu 1,0008 Zhejiang 1,0009 Anhui 1,000 40010 Fujian 40011 Jiangxi 60012 Shandong 80013 Henan 60014 Hubei 50015 Hunan 40016 Guangdong 90017 Guangxi 35018 Hainan 20019 Sichuan 60020 Guizhou 20021 Yunnan 60022 Shaanxi 80023 Gansu 500 25024 Qinghai 1,000 15025 Ningxia 1,000 200
26Xinjiang 1,300
Xinjiang Bintuan 500
Total 17,800 1,500
Note: The quota can be applied to either a transmission-grid-connected PV project or a distribution-grid-connected project. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Tibet are not limited by quota, provided that curtailment does not occur.
24 June 2015
14
Source: National Energy Administration, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GOVERNMENT-SUGGESTED BUSINESS MODELS FOR ‘PV FOR POVERTY REDUCTION’ PROGRAMME
Type of PV
Central government funds (% of capex)
Local government funds (% of capex)
Zero-interest bank loans (% of capex)
Tenor of bank loans (years)
Income to the poor (% of power sale profit)
Rooftop PV 35% 35% up to 30%
5 up to 100%
PV mounted on barren hills/lands
20% 20% up to 60%
10 up to 50%
PV mounted on agricultural facilities (e.g. greenhouses)
35% 35% up to 30%
5 up to 100%
24 June 2015
15
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CHINA PV DEMAND FORECAST, 2010-17E(CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO, GW)
0.4 2.1 2.0
12.1 10.9 11.0 10.0 9.0 0.1 0.5 1.6
0.8 2.1 5.0 7.5 10.3
0.5 2.6 3.6
12.9 13.0
16.0 17.5
19.3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e
transmission-grid-connected distribution-grid-connected
420% 38% 258% 1% 23% 10%9%
24 June 2015
16
Note: BNEF Desktop data as of 19 March 2015. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TOP 10 SOLAR DEVELOPERS IN CHINA IN TERMS OF INSTALLED CAPACITY (MARKET SHARE IN %)
13.1
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.3
2.8
2.6
2.2
2.1
1.8
China Power Investment
CECEP
China Three Gorges
China Guodian
China Huadian
GCL-Poly Energy
Chint Solar
China General Nuclear Power
Jiangsu Akcome
Shunfeng Photovoltaic Four private-sector developers; top 10
totals 38% of the 31GW national fleet
24 June 2015
17
CHINA SUMMARY
● China’s PV demand will grow to 16-19GW in 2015, which is mainly driven by the 17.8GW quota allocated by National Energy Administration. This is neither a target nor a cap.
● The four private solar developers within the top 10 were from the solar manufacturing industry, but they plan to become “long-term clean energy developers and operators”.
● The advantage to the developer of spinning off projects into a yieldco is to release capital that can be used to develop or build more projects.
24 June 2015
THAILAND
19
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ERC of Thailand.
THAILAND’S SOLAR FIT QUOTA FOR 2015-16
Project type Capacity (MW) Commissioning deadline
Utility-scale 1,014 December 2015
Community (<=5MW) 800 June 2016
Rooftop (commercial & industrial) 130 June 2015
Rooftop (residential) 100 December 2015
24 June 2015
20
UTILITY-SCALE PROJECTS REGISTERED WITH ERCBY STATUS
Note: solar projects are under the new FiT regime, whereas wind and other projects are still under the ‘adder’ programme. FiTs for wind, biomass and small hydro were introduced but not implemented. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ERC of Thailand’s online database.
UTILITY-SCALE PROJECTS REGISTERED WITH ERC BY STATUS AS OF JUN 2014, MW
UTILITY-SCALE PROJECTS REGISTERED WITH ERC BY STATUS AS OF APR 2015, MW
361 666 1,300
1,066 179
1,144
594 347
16 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Solar Wind Biomass Small hydroApplication not approvedApproved but PPA not signedPPA signed
10
977 746
545 241
1,028
193 1,061
16 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Solar Wind Biomass Small hydroApplication not approvedApproved but PPA not signedPPA signed
24 June 2015
21
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. National Energy Policy Commission of Thailand.
THAILAND’S FITS FOR DISTRIBUTED SOLAR
Note: THB/USD exchange rate = 0.30 on 20 April 2015.
Rooftop FiT rate Quota (MW)
Community ground-mounted
(<=5MW/project)
FiT rate Quota (MW)
Baht/kWh $/kWh
Baht/kWh $/kWh
0-10kW 6.96 0.21 100 1-3 year 9.75 0.30 800
10-250kW 6.55 0.20 130 4-10 year 6.50 0.20
250kW-1MW 6.16 0.18 11-25 year 4.50 0.14
24 June 2015
22
FiT (Bhat/kWh) FiT ($/kWh) Duration (years)
FiT premium for southern provinces*
2015-2016 2017Post-2017 2015-2016 2017
Post-2017 THB/kWh $/kWh
5.66 0.17 25 0.5 0.015
Source: Thai Royal Government, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
THAILAND’S FITS FOR UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR PROJECTS
Note: USD/THB=0.03 on 20 April 2015. *Three southern border provinces and four districts of Songkhla province are offered FiT premium.
24 June 2015
THE PHILIPPINES
24
TOTAL RENEWABLE PROJECTS UNDER FIT SYSTEM, MW
Note: ‘under DOE consideration’ category includes both ‘commerciality declared’ and ‘enrolled in FiT system’ categories. ‘Commerciality declared’ is a step before receiving approval for FiT. ‘Enrolled in FiT system’ is the first step in the FiTapplication process.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. DOE of the Philippines. Data as of January 2015.
TOTAL RENEWABLE PROJECTS UNDER FITSYSTEM, MW
TOTAL RENEWABLE PROJECTS UNDER FITSYSTEM BY SECTOR AND STATUS, MW
FiT allocated
306
Commerciality
declared 1,220
Enrolled in FiT system
188
Total 1,741MW
0
250
500
750
1,000
Wind Solar Smallhydro
Biomass
Under DOEconsideration
FiT allocated
FiT quotaProposed FiT quota
24 June 2015
25
Project name Developer FiT Status
Capacity (MW)
Pre-construction
Construction progress
Inter-connection
San Carlos 1 San Carlos Granted 22 100% 100% 100%Cavite Economic Zone Solar
Majestics Energy Corp
CCC, subject to FiT capacity
target
41.3 100% 100% 100%
SM North Solar Solar Philippines Commercial
Rooftop Projects, Inc
CCC, subject to FiT capacity
target
1.5 80% 100% 0%
Pampanga Raslag CCC 10 85% 80% 100%Burgos Solar EDC CCC 4.1 100% 10% 10%Leyte Phil Solar Farm-
LeyteCCC 30 80% 35% 10%
Macabud ATN CCC 30 85% 0% 0%Miag-ao Cosmo Solar
EnergyCCC 5.67 80% 5% 0%
San Carlos 2 San Carlos CCC 23 80% 0% 0%Cadiz Solar Phil-Power Solar
EnergyCCC 100 80% 0% 0%
Digos Enfinite CCC 10 0% 0% 0%
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Department of Energy of the Philippines.
SOLAR PROJECTS UNDER THE FILIPINO FIT SYSTEM AS OF JANUARY 2015
Note: data as of January 2015.Note: ‘CCC’ stands for confirmation for commerciality. For the FiT approving process read Analyst Reaction Philippines FiT: 'first-commission-first serve'? in June 2013.
24 June 2015
26
COMMISSIONED RENEWABLE CAPACITY, FOUR-QUARTER ROLLING TOTAL, GW
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
RENEWABLE CAPACITY COMMISSIONED BY COUNTRY
RENEWABLE CAPACITY COMMISSIONED BY SECTOR
GW GW
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
4Q 'Mar2010
4Q 'Mar2011
4Q 'Mar2012
4Q 'Mar2013
4Q 'Mar2014
4Q 'Mar2015
Philippines Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Vietnam
0.32
0.76
0.360.44 0.42
0.68
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
4Q 'Mar2010
4Q 'Mar2011
4Q 'Mar2012
4Q 'Mar2013
4Q 'Mar2014
4Q 'Mar2015
Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass & Waste Small hydro
0.32
0.76
0.360.44 0.42
0.68
24 June 2015
27
UTILITY-SCALE PROJECT PIPELINE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, GW
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. DEDE of Thailand, DOE of the Philippines, SEDA of Malaysia.
UTILITY-SCALE PROJECT PIPELINE BY COUNTRY IN SE ASIA (GW)
UTILITY-SCALE PROJECT PIPELINE BY SECTOR IN SE ASIA (GW)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Small hydro Wind Solar Biomass Geothermal
Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam
Total 16.6GW
0
2
4
6
8
10
Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam
Wind Small hydro Solar Biomass Geothermal
Total 16.6GW
24 June 2015
28
INCREMENTAL INSTALLATION FORECAST 2015E-20E
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
BY COUNTRY BY SECTOR
0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.50.4
0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8
0.1
0.3 0.3
0.4 0.4 0.6
0.1
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2
0.1 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.3
0
1
2
3
4
2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
Vietnam
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Total15.3GW
0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.10.3
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4
0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
0.2 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.5
0.1
0.1 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.2
0
1
2
3
4
2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
Small hydro
Geothermal
Biomass &WasteWind
Solar
Total15.3GW
24 June 2015
29
THAILAND/PHILIPPINES SUMMARY
● In Thailand, all developers of the 1,014MW originally applied under the old ‘adder’ regime were allowed to transit to a new FiT regime, but are required to commission their projects in one year.
● The Philippines has approved an additional solar FiT quota of 450MW under a new FiT rate of PHP 8.69/kWh ($0.2/kWh)
● A total of 15.3GW of new renewable capacity will be developed during 2015-20 across SE Asia, with Thailand leading the way.
24 June 2015
30
SUMMARY
The world largest market
China’s long-term PV market is bright. The advantage to the developer of spinning off projects into a yieldco is to release capital that can be used to develop or build more projects.
New emerging markets
Thailand and the Philippines have some positive policy changes, which will drive future capacity build.
distributed PV
penetration
In Australia, electricity demand pattern has been changing due to penetration of residential PV. This has happened in Germany and California, and it will likely to happen in other markets such as Japan.
24 June 2015
31
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
24 June 2015
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