ASRR Conference: Engineered Resilient Systems Panel

Ensuring Engineered Resilient

Total-Ship Systems:

Using More Physics-Based

Design Tools in Early Concept DesignBob Keane, Ship Design USA, Inc.

5 October 2011

Opinions are those of the author and not those of any Government agency or program.

Inseparable Resilience IssuesDr. Robert Neches, OASD(R&E), 31 March 2011

Rapidly Adapting to User Needs– Warfighter / Engineer Information Exchange

Accelerated Needs Exploration: Conceptual Design– Co-Evolution of ConOps & Systems for Multiple

Alternative Futures

Accelerated Design-to-Build: Capability Engineering

Advances must be embedded in tools and environments accessible to Government and industry – Systems 2020 2

5/3-6/05 Summer Naval Surface Ship Design Program 3

• A “system of systems”: Operate in battle force with older and newer ships

• Very low quantities, high unit cost, long lives• Extremely complex product: millions of piece parts• No prototypes, first ship(s) must be fully operational• Government develops combat/weapons/communications

systems• Government ultimately assumes responsibility for meeting

requirements• Lack of commercial shipbuilding industrial base to build upon• Intense Congressional oversight

Nature of the Product-A Warship

5/3-6/05 Summer Naval Surface Ship Design Program 4

USS MIDWAY 50-Year Global Crisis Response

ItalyElections

1947

Lebanon1950

Earnest Will1987–1988

Desert Shield /Desert Storm

1990–91

IranianHostage

Crisis1979

AfghanistanInvasion 1979

Laos1961

Vietnam1965–1975

PhilippineCoup1989

Quemoy-Matsu1958

Korean TreeIncident

1976

Fiery Vigil1991

The General

Board

Naval War

CollegeOpNav

The Bureaus

The General Board

Naval War

CollegeOpNav

The Bureaus

The Fleet

Collaborative Innovation in Fleet Design,1922-1941

Agents of Innovation: The General Board and the Design of the Fleet That Defeated the Japanese Navy, John T. Kuehn, Naval Institute Press, 2008

MIT'S VON HIPPEL: INNOVATION, LEAD USER ANALYSIS, CUTTING CONCEPT TIME & COST

“…sometimes it's a waste of time and resources to try to understand customer needs…

sometimes it's less expensive and more efficient to

– let your customers define the needs,

– limit yourself to offering solutions, and

– let the customers design based on that.”

6

Experience and the Right Tools Make A BIG Difference

1980s Reagan Buildup: Average Cost Growth for Average Cost Growth for Lead Ship was 10%**Lead Ship was 10%**– NAVSEA Highly

Experienced Ship Design Workforce

– User-Driven Design 1990/2000s Acquisition

Reform: Average Cost Average Cost Growth for Lead Ship was Growth for Lead Ship was 50%**50%**– Inexperienced Industry

Design Teams– Mfr.-Driven Design

Lack of Experience

Smart, Physics-Based Tools

ToolsTools

Highly Experienced

Smart, Physics-Based Tools

Rule-Based Tools

Lack of Experience

Rule-Based Tools

Highly Experienced

ExperienceExperience

** SEA 05C, June 2008

8

Seaway Loads for Design of Surface Combatants: Rule-Based Design

Structural Design of FFG 7, CG 47, DDG 51 Classes

– Interested more in extreme loading conditions than actual loads which contribute to fatigue

– Worked with simplified loading envelopes

– Deterministic analysis resulted in scantlings for maximum load expected

– Highly random wave-induced loads were set of simplified hydrostatic loads under extreme seas

No Physics-Based Computations nor Seakeeping Model Tests to Determine Actual Seaway Loads

9

Lack of Physics-Based Design Tools: Increased Ownership Costs

FFG 7 Class

– Hull girder doubler plates & ballast added

– Extensive deckhouse fatigue cracking

CG 52 Class (with VLS)

– Serious hull cracking and buckling problem

– Extensive superstructure fatigue cracking

DDG 51 Class

– Bow structure buckling and cracking issue

Operational loads exceeded rule-based design loads

$100M’s in repairs for sustaining service-lives

10

““Outside-In DesignOutside-In Design”” – Start with Hull Form, Then Cram Everything into Hull

Hull is sized and shaped in early design based on:

– unreliable weight and area/volume estimates

– invalid assumption volume is “arrangeable”

– fallacy that limiting hull size limits ship costs

Need architectural tools to optimize arrangements

11

Ships Possessing Greater Density Increase Production Cost

Ship Production hours increase with density and fall into predictable groupings.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Combatant Designs

Hybrid Designs

Commercial Designs

Legacy Hulls (Return Data) MPF(F) Notional Designs (Estimated Data)

Future L-Ship

LHD

LSD

LPD

LMSR FLO/FLO 3

FLO/FLO 2FLO/FLO 1

DISTRIBUTED

AVIATIONLOG-RO/RO

RO/RO

LHA

AOE

Auxiliary / Amphibs Designs

Future DDG

CG

DDG

FFG

No

rmal

ized

Fir

st S

hip

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Ho

urs

/ L

T)

Outfit Density (lbs / cu ft)

12

WHERE WE NEED TO GO

According to an old proverb, if we do not change our direction, we might end up where we are headed.

13

Systems Engineering – Ensure “Elegant” Designs*

Effective – it does what it is supposed to do

Efficient – to produce, operate, maintain

Robust - insensitive to variations in operations

Minimal Unintended Consequences – few band aids required to fix it in-service

*M. Griffin, Former NASA Director, Dean’s Seminar, SIT, “How do we fix System Engineering?”, 13 Dec 2010

14

Toward Robust Systems Engineering: CREATE-SHIPS Project

Computational Research & Engineering for Acquisition Tools & Environments (CREATE):

– Replace empirical design with validated physics-based computational design

– Detect and fix design flaws early in design process

– Develop optimized designs for new concepts

– Begin system integration earlier in acquisition process

– Increase acquisition program flexibility and agility to respond to rapidly changing requirements

DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program

15

Integrated Hydrodynamics Design Environment - IHDE

ASSET/LEAPS

GeometryProblemSet Up

ConditionsAutomatedGridding

SSFTSD

SMPVERES

AEGIRDAS BOOT

FREDYNTEMPEST

NavyFOAM LAMP

LOADSPOWERINGRESISTANCE MANEUVERING SEAKEEPING

AUTOMATED VALIDATION CASES

DESIGN STUDIES

SHAPE OPTIMIZATION

HPCMP

DRIVER/GUI

LOCALHPC

Rapid Ship Design Environment (RSDE) Architecture

04/19/23 16

LEAPS Database

Rapid Ship Design EnvironmentGUI

ASSETSynthesis

Hullform Gen/Trans

IHDEHydro

ISAArrangement

SHCP-L Stability

Behavior ObjectZ

FloodingBehaviors

StructuresBehaviors

SeakeepingBehaviors

StabilityBehaviors

GEML KernelNURBSMath

Radial BasisMath

KrigingMath

Neural NetMath

Execution EngineMulti-Discipline Optimization Design Space Exploration

ResistanceBehaviors

Hullform Geometry

Arrangement Geometry

LEAPS API and Toolkits

Design Data Sets

BehaviorMan TktHulltran Tkt Hullgen TktSHCP-L Tkt

Structure Geometry

SubdivisionGeometry

04/19/23 16

17

Modeling Warships in the Ocean Battle Space: Way Ahead Need to start co-evolution of ConOps & systems for

multiple alternative futures long before Milestone A

– Continuing process not tied to specific acquisitions

Need engineers to have unfettered access to warfighters

– Accelerated exploration during concept formulation

– Collaborative process exploring new/radical innovations

Need more physics-based tools for concept design with

– Timely pre-processing of system geometry

– Timely post-processing of results into decision aids

Need to reconstitute DoD S&T infrastructure

– DoD Labs resume their advanced development role

CISD Overview - March 2010 18

Center of Innovation in Ship Design is:Center of Innovation in Ship Design is:The hub of a national collaborative enterprise combining the best ideas and experience of government, industry, and academia in ship design

CISD CISD MissionMission: : Ensure the Future Capability (People, Tools and Knowledge) of the Nation to Develop Innovative Ship Designs to Effectively Meet Defense Needs

Focus Areas: Navy of the Future• Develop Future Ship Designers• Knowledge Base / Design Tools & Processes• Future Ship & Ship Design Technology Needs• Develop Innovative Ship Design Concepts

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