Regional Bureau for Science and Technology in Arab States

Cairo

Office

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Assessment of Flash floods Risks at Wadi

Yutum Basin

Prepared

By

Prof Dr. Rakad Ayed Ta’any

2

List of Contents

1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….3

1.1 Background…………………………………………………………….…………………3

1. 2 Geology and Hydrogeology of Wadi Yutum……………..….....…………..……………4

1.3 National Hazardscape………………….…………………………………………………7

2. Description of Wadi Yutum Basin………………………...…………………….………9

2.1 Location and Accessibility…………………………………………………….…………9

2.2 Vegetation and Topography…………………………….…………………….………….9

3. Hydrology of Wadi Yutum Basin…………………………………..…………….…….11

3.2 Mean Rainfall and Descriptive Statistics…………………………...………………..….12

3.3 Estimation of the daily and annual rainfall…………………………...…………………14

3.4 Runoff…………………………………….……………………………………….…….14

3.5 Flash floods…………………………….……………………………………………..…16

4. Flash Floods at Aqaba and Adjacent Coastal Wadis…………………………….….17

4.1 Aqaba Flash Floods and Major Disasters………………………………………....……18

5. Situational Analysis…………………………………………………………..…..…….21

5.1 Need for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)………………………...……………………23

5.2 Flood Control Management……………………………………..……………………..24

5.3 Policy………………………………………………..…………………………….……25

5.4 Strategy……………………………………………...………………………….………26

6. Conclusions and Recommendations……………………………………….…..………27

7. References…………………………………………………………..…………………..29

List of Abbreviation

ASEZA: Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority

ASEZ: Aqaba Special Economic Zone

Asl: Above mean sea level

DRR: Disaster Risk Reduction

EM-DAT: a worldwide database on disasters.

NDRMP: National Disaster Response Master Plan

UNDP: United Nations Development Programme

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Assessment of Flash floods Risks at Wadi Yutum Basin

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

Jordan is located within the geographic coordinates: 31º 00 N, 36º 00E, Figure (1.1). Most of

the countryis covered by desert (90% of its area); however, the northwestern area is regarded

as part of the Fertile Crescent. Generally, the country has warm, dry summers and mild, wet

winters, with annual average temperatures ranging from 12 to 25º C and summer time highs

reaching the 40ºC in the desert regions. Rainfall averages vary from 50 mm annually in the

desert to as much as 800 mm in the northern hills, some of which fall as snow, (UNDP, 2010).

The country is divided into 3 regions made up of12 governorates, Irbid, Jarash, Ajloun and

Mafraq are in the Northern region, Amman, Zarqa, Balqa and Madaba are in the Central

Region, and Karak, Tafileh, Ma’an and Aqaba in the southern region, Figure (1.1).

In 1990, Aqaba was designated as a Governorate (population numbered 74,399 persons). The

population of the main city was 63,157. In August 2000, the Aqaba Special Economic Zone

Authority Law was passed by the Jordanian Parliament. The law established the ASEZA as

the statutory institution empowered with regulatory, administrative, fiscal and economic

responsibilities within the ASEZ.

Gulf of Aqaba is located on the Red Sea, the only seaport in Jordan.The climate of Aqaba is

extremely arid consisting of two distinct seasons. However, short, intense convective

thunderstorms can occur any time of the year. Disruptions caused by the 2006 flood had a

major economic impact on the Kingdom.The ongoing economic development of Aqaba is

crucial to the Jordanian economy, and protection of the City of Aqaba from flood damage is

critical to maintaining progress. However, environmental concerns are not incorporated in

disaster management practices and vice versa.

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Figure 1.1: Jordan Map and Governorates

Aqaba city is strategically important to Jordan, as it is the country’s only seaport at the Red

Sea. The port is Jordan’s most important import/export hub. It plays an important role in the

economic life of Jordan and hasmany attractions to offer the vacationer. Figure (1.2), shows a

picture of the new city of Aqaba. The town is best known today as a diving and beach resort.

However, industrial activity remains important to the area, and thetown is an exporter of

phosphate. The town is also an important administrative center within the far south of Jordan.

1.2 Geology and Hydrogeology of Wadi Yutum Area

1.2.1 Geology

The geologic stratification exposed in Jordan represents most of the geological time, ranging

from Precambrian to Recent deposits. The Precambrian igneous rock complex associated with

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the metamorphic rocks occupies about 896 km². This is unconformably overlain by the Late

Proterozoic sediments, (Bender, 1974).

Figure 1.2: News hotels and dwellings of Aqaba.

The essential geological features of Wadi Yutum Basin are the Precambrian crystalline

basement, represented mainly by granitic rocks, which were peneplained and overlaid by

Paleozoic sequence of sediments ranging from Cambrian to Upper Silurian age, Figure 3. The

rocks were tilted with a low angle to the northeast during Permian age, then eroded and

peneplained. A sequence of rocks ranging in age from Early Cretaceous to Eocene were

deposited, Figure (1.3). The area was uplifted and titled to the east during the Late Tertiary,

(Bender, 1974).

The area is generally covered by Quaternary sediments consisting of a stream type of

alluviums with a valley fill type of sediments in the lower part of the basin. It is worth

mentioning here that the Aqaba region is devoid of any deep wells.

1.2.2 Hydrogeology

The main hydrogeological systems in Wadi Yutum Basin, which is considered as an aquifer,

are the Rum aquifer and the Alluvial Aquifer. The Rum aquifer is the most important which is

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composed of Salib Arkosic Sandstone, Umm Ishrin Sandstone and the Umm Sahm Sandstone

formations.

Figure 1.3:Geologic Map of Wadi Yutum Basin

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The Rum Aquifer outcrops in the Quweira – Disi area. The Rum Aquifer is under water table

condition in the Upper Wadi Yutum groundwater basin. The eastern boundary of the Upper

Wadi Yutum groundwater basin is formed mainly by the basement rocks, which have been

faulted above the water table level and form a barrier between the Upper Wadi Yutum

groundwater basin and the adjacent groundwater area. The southwestern limit of the basin is

formed by the basement rocks but in the northwest it is probable that the groundwater divide

exists in the sandstone which separates the Upper Wadi Yutum groundwater basin from the

southern Wadi Araba groundwater basin. The northern limit is formed by a recharge mound

under the Ras En Naqab escarpment.

Flow within the Upper Wadi Yutum groundwater basin converges southwards into the head of

the Wadi Yutum and discharges to the Wadi Araba and Gulf of Aqaba through the sands and

gravels of the wadi Alluvium. The depth to the water table is around 177 m below land surface

(east of Quweira) with increasing value to the north and decreasing to the south. The hydraulic

gradient in the sandstone formation reflects the convergence of the flow towards the Wadi

Yutum gorge, (WAJ, 1994).

The hydraulic gradient of Rum Aquifer is maintained by the recharge in the vicinity of Ras En

Naqab. Indirect recharge is derived from floods in wadis and sand dunes between the foot of

the escarpment and the entrance of the Wadi Yutum gorge. The recharge mounds diminish

eastwards where the Khreim Group sediments occur between the Rum Aquifer and the

Mesozoic sediments. The rainfall decreases in this direction and the argillaceous horizons in

the Khreim Group preventing direct and indirect recharge to the Rum Aquifer.

1.3 National Hazardscape

The National Disaster Response Master Plan (NDRMP) of Jordan (2004) identifies the

following main hazardsas potential threats to Jordan: earthquakes, flash floods, drought,

locusts, and weather emergencies (snowstorms, frost), as well as human-made disasters such

as fires, chemical dangers (industrial releases, hazardous materials transportation accidents,

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etc.), chemical, biological, and radioactive contamination, armed conflict, and mass population

migration.

A summary of major disasters over the past century is provided in Table (1.1). The table

shows the disaster types,date, affected populations as (injured and displaced), and deaths.The

natural hazard profile of Jordan according to Munich Re Group5 results,it is evident that

seismic and drought hazards are the dominant sources of hazard to the country. However,

according to the United Nation’s report “2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk

Reduction” JordanMortality Risk Index for floods is 3, whereas the index for earthquakes is

very low (2). The multi-hazard risk fortropical cyclones, floods, earthquakes and landslides is

3. The maximum index value is 10. On the other hand, the economic vulnerability is high and

the economic resilience accounts to 25-50%.

Table1.1: Major disasters in Jordan over the past100 years, (DRMP, 2008).

Disaster

Date

AffectedPopulation

Deaths

Earthquake 1927 Unknown 242

Flooding 1963 Unknown 25

Flooding 1965 500 0

Flooding 1966 5792 295

Drought 1966 180,000 0

Epidemic 1981 715 4

Flooding 1987 29 9

Flooding 1991 18,000 8

Earthquake 2004 19 0

Terrorattack 2005 100 60

Floods 2006 25 6

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2. Description of Wadi Yutum Basin

2.1 Location and Accessibility

Wadi Yutum basin lies in the southern desert of Jordan between 150 to 230 East and 850 to

940 North according to Palestine Grids. It covers an area of about 4,465 km2

. Amman- Aqaba

desert highway cuts the area from Ras En Naqab and Quweira through Wadi Yutum to Aqaba

city. Quweira town lays of about 64 km from Ma’an city, while the distance between Quweira

and Aqaba city is about 48 km. To the southwest of the basin, Aqaba is the only outlet to the

sea (Gulf of Aqaba) and the main port of Jordan, Figure (2.1).

Figure 2.1: Location Map of Wadi Yutum Basin

2.2 Vegetation and Topography

Vegetation is extremely sparse consisting mainly of shrubby growth; it is confined to the

alluvium deposits and sandy soils. Agricultural activity is restricted to the Quweira area,

which produces very important agricultural products. Farming at Quweira area started in1980

using water from the private wells penetrating Rum sandstone aquifer.

The topography of the basin ranges between 0 m above the mean sea level (asl) at the Gulf of

Aqaba and 1754 asl at Jebal Rum, the highest mountain in Jordan. The elevation at Jebal En

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Naqab is 1546 m asl which represents the recharge mound at the northwest of the basin. Wadi

Yutum is considered as the main wadi and there are many adjacent wadis draining the basin

during flood periods. Generally, Wadi Yutum basin is characterized by dendritic drainage

pattern, Figure (2.2).

Figure 2.2: Topographic Map of Wadi Yutum Basin

Wadi Yutum drains an extensive area in southwest Jordan, east of Aqaba into the Red Sea

Precipitation over the area falls in the form rainfall and ranges from 150 mm/ year in the

highlands to less than 50 mm/year. In the central and eastern parts of the basin, the potential

evaporation is very high and ranges from 3,400 mm/year in the western parts up to 3,800

mm/year in the eastern and southern parts. Since most parts of the area is flat, precipitation

water infiltrates into the barren rocks, mostly consisting of sandstones and weathered rocks.

There are no groundwater discharges in the area, and the surface water forms as floods

resulting from intense precipitation. But even that is very small amount of 1.5 MCM/y

compared with the extent of the basin.

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3. Hydrology of Wadi Yutum Basin

The average total amounts of rainfall during the rainy months of the year in Aqaba do not

exceed 50 mm. Rare frequent thunderstorms sweep the area carrying casual intense

precipitation in these rainy months resulting in total annual rainfall exceeding the previously

mentioned value.

The long periods of daily sunshine and the high temperatures around the year, the little

vegetation cover enhances the process of actual evaporation, which makes direct recharge of

groundwater rare. On the other hand, the high infiltration rates, low soil field capacities, coarse

textures (classified mainly as sands) and the revealed weakness structural zones as lineaments

and active faults and the shallow groundwater table allow good parts of precipitation to

percolate down to the groundwater body forming recharge. The high permeability of wadi

beds and the contents of sand and gravel within the alluvial terraces provide good conditions

for direct and indirect recharge.

3.1 Climate of Aqaba Region

Aqaba region is best described in term of its climate as arid; while maximum annual

precipitation values do not exceed 50 mm in the best conditions and are restricted to the winter

season. The potential pan evaporation is estimated 4100 mm/year, (MWI, 1995). These factors

give the area the dryness character, and the soil its salinization. With that, thunderstorms can

sweep the area in winter to create run off and then rapid surface flash floods. These are the

responsible factors for the occurrence of recent wadi shapes within the deposits along the

coastal area.

The wind is mostly directed from north to northwest and from south to south west. Dust and

sandy winds are rare, average wind speed ranges from 11.5 to 23 miles per hour; it has a

noticed role in dropping the humidity. South winds are rare. Since it crosses the hyper dry area

of Wadi Araba it is very dry. While the relative humidity is high in wintertime, it decreases

during the hot summer months. It is characterized by being low during most of the year, and

especially in the summer months when the temperature is high. Usually it is between 28-30%,

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which makes Aqaba stand out among other cities on the Red Sea.The sunlight is intense

especially in summer times and the highest sunshine hours are registered in May, June and

July, and the lowest in December, January and February. Table 3.1 gives the mean annual

values of weather parameters in Aqaba for the period 1985 to1997, (Farajat, 2001).

Table 3.1: Mean annual values of the weather parameters in Aqaba for the period 1985 to

1997, (Farajat, 2001).

Year Temperature

°C

Rainfall

(mm)

Relative

Humidity (%)

Wind Speed

(knot)

Wind Direction

(Degree)

Sunshine

(hrs)

1988 24.2 37.7 46.8 9.8 No Data 9.2

1989 23.8 27.9 51.1 9.2 No Data 9.6

1990 24.2 48.3 40.8 9.5 No Data 9.7

1991 24.2 38.9 44.2 7.4 No Data 9.3

1992 23.2 15.2 45.9 8.9 296.1 9.0

1993 24.1 46.9 45.4 10.0 295.4 9.3

1994 24.5 52.7 47.5 9.6 284.3 9.4

1995 24.1 11.1 48.9 10.2 262.2 9.6

1996 24.7 2.1 51.9 9.9 260.9 8.5

1997 24.0 41.1 52.3 8.8 178.8 9.2

3.2Mean Rainfall and Descriptive Statistics

The rainfall gauges represent point sampling of the distribution of a storm. The hydrological

analysis requires knowledge of the average depth of rainfall over a study area. Rainfall ranges

between less than 22.3 mm at the eastern part (Khreim Rainfall station) of the Wadi Yutum

catchment area to more than 43.2 mm at the western part of the catchment area (Mised

Rainfall station); Figure (3.1) shows the rainfall stations at Wadi Yutum Basin.

Generally, the mean annual rainfall decreases across Wadi Yutum catchment area from east to

west. The mean annual rainfall varies by more than a factor of three over the study area and

the coefficient of variation ranges from 62.08 to 97.96. Table (3.2), shows a summary of the

annual statistics for the significant rainfall stations at Wadi Yutum catchment area.

The minimum variation coefficient 62.08 is found for Arada rainfall station, whereas variation

coefficient 97.96 is found at Sabit rainfall station. This means that, the distribution of rainfall

over Arada rainfall station is better in the eastern part of the catchment than that of Sabit

rainfall station at the southwestern part of the Wadi Yutum Basin; Figure (3.2) shows the

distribution of the average annual rainfall at Wadi Yutum Basin.

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Table 3.2: Annual Rainfall Descriptive Statistics (Abu El Shawashi, 2013)

Figure 3.1: Thiessen Polygon Map for Wadi Yutum Catchment Area

Variation

Coefficient

Standard

Deviation

Weighing

Average Annual

Rainfall (mm)

Maximum

Rainfall

(mm)

Minimum

Rainfall

(mm)

Rainfall

Station Name

74.45 23.08 31 82.3 0 Ratma

74.53 24.43 32.8 101.0 2

Nasfa

63.10 27.26 43.2 90.4 2

Wadi Mised

62.08 15.75 25.4 62.8 5

Arada

82.43 18.34 22.3 53.8 0

Khreim

97.96 24.46 25.0 75.2 1

Sabit

65.64 27.17 42.0 109.0 2

Um Ngour

73.88 23.39 31.7 90.2 6

Ghal

79.04 18.52 23.4 74.1 2.1

Aqaba

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Figure 3.2: Distribution of the Average Annual Rainfall at Wadi Yutum Basin

3.3 Estimation of the daily and annual rainfall

While annual rainfall shows the general distribution of rainfall, daily rainfall data give a more

detailed picture of the storms that cause runoff or floods. The estimation of daily mean rainfall

if there are missing values can be made using Thiessen Polygon techniques for finding

weighted average rainfall in an area, Figure 3.1 representing this technique. In this technique,

it is assumed that the point rainfall at the station is representing the areal rainfall in its

polygon, or their areas of rainfall influence. The distribution of the weighing mean annual

rainfall of the rainfall stations is given in Table 3.2 depending on Figure 3.1.

3.4 Runoff

There was only one runoff gauging station constructed at the outlet of Wadi Yutum Basin by

the Ministry of Water and Irrigation. The runoff volumes have a low percentage from the total

rainfall amounts because of the high losses into the sandy alluvial of the wadi beds and to the

high evaporation, Table 3.3 shows floods occurred in the period from (1963 – 1982),(Abu El

Shawashi, 2013). The quite large floods come from the localized storms in the basin and

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mostly from Ras En Naqab area. The main problem of floods assessment at wadi Yutum basin

is the lack of accurate data especially the region is exposed to several flash floods.

The floodwater that flows and seeps along the alluvial fans become slower in the flat lands

where the slope decreases. This allows the rest floodwater to collect in areas called flood

plains and playas. The resulted deposits are mainly the smallest sizes such as clay and silt.

Coastal wadis deposit a part of their loads on land forming alluvial fans, the rest flows to the

sea to form small deltas.

Floods are one of the most influential environmental hazards, so it is important to understand

and recognize this natural phenomenon because of its negative impact on the human and

natural environment. Human activities play a key role in increasing these verities of floods in

arid and semiarid regions. The assessment of the flash floods risks at Wadi Yutum Basin,

(which is considered as the largest wadi in the southern desert of Jordan) is of great

importance to the vital existing facilities in Aqaba region and beyond.

Table 3.2: Floods of Wadi Yutum Gauging Station for the Period (1963 – 1982)

Date of Flood Runoff (m3/s) Date of Flood

Runoff

(m3/s)

8 April 1963 9 18November 1967 0.36

1 February 1964 12.5 26 November 1967 5.41

25 March 1965 30.9 19 March 1969 0.66

12 January 1965 1.14 25 March 1971 0.8

13 January 1965 0.17 20 February 1975 0.98

19 January 1965 0.3 25 February 1975

1.23

26 March 1965 0.16 31 November 1981 8.06

11 March 1966 128 11 May 1982

5.15 9 November 1966 1

The table indicates that the maximum discharge was in March in 1966, reaching to about 128

cubic meters per second; this is known as the flood of Ma’an. The maximum water level was

reached to about 18 meters in the course of Wadi Yutum channel, which led to the destruction

of a large number of buildings, roads, bridges, and loss of a number of people living at both

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sides of the wadi. Depending on the available data in Table 3.2 SMADA Software was used to

frequency analysis as shown in Table 3.3. It is seen that, the return periods of the total annual

runoff for 200 years coming. It is expecting that, the value of 185.82 m3/s has a return period

of 200 years, Table 3.3.

Table 3.3: Peak Discharges, Probability and Return Period at Wadi Yutum Gauging Station.

Return Period (Years) Probability (%) Runoff (m3/s)

2 0.5 1.42

3 0.667 3.21

5 0.8 10.34

10 0.9 28.22

25 0.96 64.06

50 0.98 98.98

100 0.99 139.75

200 0.995 185.82

3.5 Flash floods

Flash-flood disasters are common in the Aqaba area. It always has a significant impact on the

city and causes immense damages to lives and the infrastructure (highways, roadsand dwelling

areas). Before the 1990s, several flash floods of medium and high magnitudes were recorded

(i.e., the 1963 and 1966 floods).However, low and medium magnitude floods (6-7 and 20-year

return period) have been are current phenomenon over the last three decades, (Farhan and

Anbar, 2014).

The city and the port of Aqaba are considered crucial to the Jordanian economy and

consequently the protection of the city/port from repetitive flooding is important to maintain

future urban and economic development. Since the 1960s all formulated development plans

for the city and the southern coast have suffered from a remarkable lack of appreciation and

awareness regarding environmental hazards, where 90 % of the Aqaba area is exposed to

flood and sediment hazards.

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4. Flash Floods at Aqaba and Adjacent Coastal Wadis

The City of Aqaba is the only Jordanian seaport and a popular tourist destination, is located at

the nexus of the Wadi Araba, the Red Sea Gulf of Aqaba, and the Mountains of Aqaba

complex. This area consists of the watershed catchment areas of wadis that drain to the ASEZ

as depicted on Figure (4.1).

This area consists of the Gulf coastal plain, that portion of Wadi Araba that experiences flow

from the Wadi Yutum watershed, the Mountains of Aqaba Complex, a rugged series of ridges

to the east of Aqaba that rise from several hundredmeters above the Red Sea to elevations of

approximately 1,600 meters (m).The Wadi Rum/Ad Disi area, a part of the Hisma desert of

southern Jordan and northern Arabia, lying below the steep escarpment of the central

Jordanian plateau that forms the Wadi Yutum headwaters.

Over the ages, deep canyons have been cut into the Mountains, routing runoff from rainfall to

outfalls in the Wadi Araba that have resulted in the development of alluvial fans along the

mountain front as the flows deposit sediment that has eroded from the ridge lines and valley

floors. Eventually the runoff reaches the base of the valley, where it turns south and flows to

the Gulf. While the drainage paths in the Edom Mountains are well-defined due to the

dramatic relief, once flows leave the mountains, the drainage paths are ill-defined and

impermanent, spreading across the alluvial fans and Wadi Araba floor.

Development has extended from city centers adjacent to the Gulf coastline, up the Wadi

Araba, and onto the alluvial fans. Urbanization of the alluvial fans has resulted in a higher risk

of damage to development and increased potential for adverse impacts to public health and

welfare as buildings and public infrastructure are built in areas that are, or could become,

active flow areas. In many areas where urbanization has occurred or is planned to occur,

drainage channels are undefined as geomorphic process including scour and deposition

continue to realign active flow areas.

Floods have occurred in Wadi Araba in the recent past that have caused a large amount of

structural damage and loss of life. A risk that such damage will occur in the future will

increase dramatically as areas previously inundated by floodwaters are occupied by humans

and man-made structures, both above- and underground. To minimize this increased risk, it

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will be necessary to develop rational, coordinated plans for conveying flood flows from their

points of origin to outfalls along the Gulf coast.

Figure 4.1: Wadi Yutum Basin andAdjacent Coastal Wadis

4.1 Aqaba Flash Floods and Major Disasters

Jordan has been affected by all types of disasters (Earthquakes and Flash floods). Climate

changes related disasters including flash floods are becoming more frequent events that are

causing losses of lives and costs millions of economic losses every year in different parts of

the country. In the past half century, incidents of flash flooding in Jordan have claimed the

lives of 345 persons and affected 24,321 lives. Additionally, floods usually leave vast

agricultural areas covered with heavy water.

Disasters Inventory in Jordan showing that during the last 8 years (2007-2014), flash floods in

Jordan resulted in the death of 41 people and affected few thousands more with economic loss

of hundreds of US Dollars, Table (4.1).

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Many developments in ASEZ are taking place on alluvial fans of wadis, which do not always

have water, so the area will inevitably be hit by disasters when flood happen, Figure (4.2).

A container company's yard at the mouth of Wadi Mubarak was struck by a disaster in

February 2, 2006, causing a casualty. On the same day, the disaster hit the alluvial fan of Wadi

Yutum and caused large-scale sediment-related damage, which included five deaths, the

destruction of 18.5 km of water pipes and water production wells, and damage to the airport.

Wadi Yutum is within the main development area in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone.

Table 4.1: Major Disasters in Jordan Since 1927 (compiled from EM-DAT Database and

Jordan Civil Defense Statistics)

Disaster Date Killed Affected Disaster Date Killed Affected

Earthquakes 1927 242 ? Storm 2002 5 25

Flood 1963 25 ? Flood 2007 9 169

Flood 1964 6 ? Flood 2008 6 185

Flood 1966 259 ? Flood 2009 6 265

Flood 1987 9 29 Flood 2010 7 522

Flood 1991 11 18,000 Flood 2011 7 132

Flood 1997 2 ? Flood 2012 6 491

Drought 2000 0 150,000 Flood 2013 0 2214

Storm 2000 9 200 Flood 2014 0 540

The northern parts of Aqaba are the most vulnerable regions for flashflood hazards. These

areas contain all the town residential expansion area, the Aqaba International Industrial Estate,

the King Hussein International Airport, and all the northern light industries and logistics

areas.The total development potential of that part of Aqaba required the construction of a

rainwater diversion flood channel along the new northern Aqaba airport parallel highway,

which connects with Dead Sea-Aqaba road, Figure (4.3).

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Figure 4.2: Development area north of Aqaba city on the alluvial fan of Wadi Yutum.

Figure 4.3: Flood diversion channel system of northern Aqaba city.

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5. Situational Analysis

Arab region is urbanizing very fast. Urban population in the region is growing at 6 % per

annum, double then the overall population growth rate, whereas the overall growth rate also

remains highest in the world. Out of a total population of 390 million about 220 million live in

urban centers. Between 1970 and 2010, urban population of the region increased by four

times, (UNHSP, 2012). Over 56 % of the Arab population presently lives in urban areas (large

cities and small towns), while in some countries the percentage of people living in urban areas

is as high as 100%, (UN-Habitat, 2012).

The average urban population for Gulf region is 80%, while the Maghreb is above 70%. Gulf

region is amongst most urbanized regions of the world. Over 80 % of Gulf people live in

urban centers. The countries of Maghreb are also highly urbanized (Algeria, Libya, Morocco

and Tunisia). Mashreq countries (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria) are

moderate to highly urbanized.

Disasters pose a serious threat to the Arab region in general and to urban centers in particular.

Many Arab cities and towns are located in high-risk areas, including coasts and highly

seismic zones, which expose them to disaster risks from earthquakes, flash flooding and

storms thus leading to losses in lives, assets and livelihoods. Climate change has increased the

frequency and severity of hydro-meteorological incidents. The climate change induced

disasters have manifested themselves in the form of flash flooding, droughts, desertification,

and storms during the recent years.

The 2008-11 flash flooding in Riyad, Jeddah and Yemen, the 2007-12 cyclones in Oman, the

2013 winter storm in Palestine, the 2011 famine and drought in the Horn of Africa, the 2008-

11 droughts in Syria, Iraq and Jordan are but a few reminders about the increasing intensity

and frequency of climate change induced disaster events.

A variety of factors serves as drivers of risk in the Arab cities. The rising urban population

coupled with poor quality of housing, infrastructure and services is a key driver. The

expansion of urban centers is occurring without adherence to legal frameworks, building

codes, or land use plans. As a result of poorly planned urbanization, environmental resources

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have suffered losses, which could be a key driver behind enhanced flash flooding, changes in

rainfall patterns, desertification and landslides. The social groups that remain most vulnerable

within urban areas include the poorest slum dwellers. Most of these groups have migrated

from country side due to displacement by droughts, conflicts and wars or growing

desertification. At present over 2 million Syrian refugees live in Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt

and Turkey mostly in camps and slums on outskirts of Amman, Beirut and Tripoli, cities

which are exposed to a variety of seismic and climatic hazards.

The probability of urban flash flooding is very high. Almost every year, a major flash

flooding incident is experienced in one or more cities of the region. The large scale tropical

cyclones are rare in frequency. Cities most at risk to multiple kinds of disasters include

Algiers, Alexandria, El Asnam, Aqaba, Amman, Beirut, Bossasso, Casablanca, Damascus,

Djibouti, Jeddah, Khartoum, Mogadishu, Tangier, Tripoli (Lebanon), Tunis.

The mortality from flash flooding and cyclone disasters is expected to remain low,

however, disasters induced by large earthquakes may cause large number of casualties

reaching upto 20,000- 30,000 in some cases. For example, Aqaba is a small coastal city with

population of 100,000 people. The city of Aqaba has witnessed a dramatic population growth

and a fundamental restructuring over the past years.

The Aqaba risk assessment conducted by UNDP and Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority

(ASEZA) estimated that in case of an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude, 600- 1000 people would

be killed, while another 4000 would be injured. Out of 12,125 buildings about 6,015 buildings

would suffer moderate to complete damage, thus rendering about 49,000 people homeless and

in need of shelter.

The earthquake is expected to cause losses of about 330 million US dollars. An earthquake

disaster in large cities like Algiers, Beirut or Damascus could cause much higher economic

losses, which may run into billions, due to large slum populations, weaker infrastructure and

concentrations of various commercial and industrial activities there.

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The role of ASEZ as part of the holistic development plans and aims of prosperity to the

nations, urges the need to develop policies, strategies, and action plans in order to make ASEZ

a safer place, with adequate capacity to prevent, mitigate and reduce risk as well as be able to

respond on the face of a given emergency.

5.1 Need for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

The combination of frequent natural hazards and the prescribed risk drivers has the potential to

cause serious losses to urban populations, infrastructure, economy and livelihoods in the

region. Therefore, there is an urgent need to start city level action for disaster risk reduction so

as to develop systems to minimize risks to sustainable development.

In order to improve safety of citizens and to ensure sustainable social, economic and

environmental development it is critical that urban authorities in revamping policies and

institutional capacities for disaster risk management. Disaster risk management needs to be

integrated into regular urban and sectorial development planning.

It must be acknowledged that the Arab region has already made some progress in establishing

city level good practices on disaster risk reduction. The city of Aqaba with technical assistance

from UNDP since 2009, has implemented a variety of initiatives concerning earthquake risk

reduction. Including a risk assessment, public awareness, urban search and rescue, community

volunteers teams, training of officials, a disaster risk reduction unit and a multi-stakeholder

coordination committee. The city government also relocated one flash flood prone community

to a safer area. Given the strong leadership that Aqaba has shown in setting up DRR systems,

it was declared as the Arab Role Model City on DRR by the UNISDR in 2013.

The First Arab Conference on DRR, held in Aqaba Jordan from 19-21 March 2013. The

Declaration prescribes modest, achievable and time bound targets to be implemented by city

and national governments, in order to develop city level capacities for disaster risk reduction.

The targets established in the Declaration are supposed to be achieved during the five-year

period of 2013-17. To achieve the established targets: a) the governments are expected to

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provide necessary political support and to allocate resources., b) The international agencies

needs to provide necessary technical support, as well as some financial assistance to facilitate

the process.

5.2Flood Control Management

The concept of flood hazard management includes flood control management and floodplain

management. Traditional flood control measures have generally referred to various

engineering type projects aimed at controlling floodwaters, such as building of levies and

traditional floodplain management, which was aimed at controlling building in the floodplain.

Current efforts are directed toward comprehensive flood hazard mitigation planning.

Floodplain management means the operation of an overall program of corrective and

preventive measures for reducing flood damage, including but not limited to emergency

preparedness plans, flood control works and floodplain management regulations. Participation

in the National Flood Insurance program requires the adoption of floodplain management

regulations.

5.2.1 Flood mitigation

Flood mitigation involves managing the effects of flooding, such as redirecting flood run-off,

rather than trying to prevent it altogether. It is management of people, through measures such

as evacuation and dry/wet proofing properties for example.

The prevention of flooding can be studied on a number of levels, individual properties, small

communities and whole towns or cities. The costs of protection rise as more people and

property are protected.

Mitigation measures must be conducted through planning of structural and non-structural

measures to reduce existing risks and prevent the build-up of new ones, response aims at

reducing the impact of disasters through rescue, relief and rehabilitation, and recovery intends

to reduce possible losses in future with adapted recovery.

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5.2.2 Protection of communities

When more homes, shops and infrastructure are threatened by the effects of flooding, then the

benefits of greater protection are worth the additional cost. Temporary Flood Defenses can be

constructed relatively quickly in certain locations and provide protection from rising

floodwaters.

5.2.3 Flood risk management

The most effective way of reducing the risk to people and property is through the production

of flood risk maps. Most countries in the developed world will have produced maps, which

show areas prone to flooding events of known return periods. By identified areas of known

flood risk, the most sustainable way of reducing risk is to prevent further development in those

known flood risk areas.

5.3 Policy

• ASEZA has adopted a number of policies associated with the control, management

and protection of the natural environment. The environmental policy requires

preservation and protection of the environment and the sustained development of the

Zone’s natural resources.

• The water policy requires the protection and management of the groundwater

resources to bring down annual abstractions from the various renewable aquifers to a

sustainable rate, as well as the development of wastewater management and reuse

schemes.

• Water conservation is to be enhanced by managing both supply and demand and

efficiency of use through the utilization of improved water-saving technologies and

management practices, and the modification of current practices through public

awareness programs.

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• The energy conservation policy promotes the provision of adequate energy to

consumers at the least possible cost, while attempting to achieve sustainable

development of the energy sector and to meeting the needs of socioeconomic

development in the Zone.

• ASEZA has adopted a stringent discharge policy of “Zero Discharge” to the sea in

order to preserve the marine environment through the complete elimination of marine

pollution. The Gulf of Aqaba is defined as a ‘special area’ according to the

International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL 73/78)

signifying that discharges of oil are prohibited from vessels.

5.4 Strategy

• The Arab Cities Disaster Resilience Programme has been designed in response to the

prominent demographic and development trends in the region, and threats to

sustainable development by a variety of factors, not least the climate change and

resulting possibility of growing extreme events in the region.

• The rationale for urban risk reduction initiatives in the region was provided by the

First Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction that was held in Aqaba, Jordan for

the period 19-21 March2013.

• The formulation and endorsement of Aqaba Declaration was preceded by the signing-

up of 280 Arab Cities to the Making Cities Resilient Campaign during 2010-2013,

demonstrating the demand for adoption of sustainable development practices by city

authorities to reduce losses and damages from disasters.

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6. Conclusions and Recommendations

A. Conclusions

• Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural unpredictable disasters because of

their rapid occurrence, little lead-time for warning and tremendous amount of water

flowing. Yet, most of the discharge of flash flood water are rarely viewed and managed as

a great potential solution for augmenting the extremely scarce water resources of these

countries through innovative techniques including water harvesting, in addition, of course,

to mitigating the catastrophic risk of such floods.

• The city of Aqaba with technical assistance from UNDP since 2009, has implemented

a variety of initiatives concerning earthquake risk reduction, including a risk

assessment, public awareness, urban search and rescue, community volunteers teams,

training of officials, a disaster risk reduction unit and a multi-stakeholder coordination

committee.The city government also relocated one flash flood prone community to a

safer area.

• The total development potential of that part of Aqaba required the construction of a

rainwater diversion flood channel along the new northern Aqaba airport parallel

highway, which connects with Dead Sea-Aqaba road.

• The fragile and stressful conditions of arid landscape characterized the Aqaba area;

necessitate careful site selection for urban development to ensure sustainability.

• Due to long intervals between high-magnitude low-frequency flood events and lack of

hydrological data, planners have paid little attention to geomorphic hazards. The

vulnerability of the landscape towards geomorphic processes and the resultant hazards

have often been ignored.

• It has also been reported that a disaster Risk Management Plan (RMP) has not yet been

integrated into the development plan of Aqaba (Jordan), which has suffered from flash

floods over the last 30 years.

• To minimize this increased risk, it will be necessary to develop rational, coordinated plans for

conveying flood flows from their points of origin to outfalls along the Gulf coast.

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• The northern parts of Aqaba are the most vulnerable regions for flashflood hazards.

These areas contain all the town residential expansion area, the Aqaba International

Industrial Estate, the King Hussein International Airport, and all the northern light

industries and logistics areas.

• The total development potential of that part of Aqaba required the construction of a

rainwater diversion flood channel along the new northern Aqaba airport parallel

highway, which connects with Dead Sea-Aqaba road.

• There is an urgent need to start city level action for disaster risk reduction so as to

develop systems to minimize risks to sustainable development.

• In order to improve safety of citizens and to ensure sustainable social, economic and

environmental development it is critical that urban authorities in revamping policies

and institutional capacities for disaster risk management.Disaster risk management

needs to be integrated into regular urban and sectorial development planning.

B. Recommendations

To decrease the flood exposure to residences, businesses, and critical facilities and thus,

the overall future flood impact on Aqaba City, the below inserted issues must be

implemented.

Prepare a flood protection master plan. The master plan must be comprehensive that

incorporates all aspects of disaster management and proposes major project for managing

various risks and for reducing future disaster losses in Aqaba.

Develop rational, coordinated plans for conveying flood flows from their points of

origin to outfalls along the Gulf coast.

Provide recommendations and preliminary designs for managing flood risk,

Design and implement a flood warning system,

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and develop a watershed plan to enhance and protect water sources in the Aqaba

basin.

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