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Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Hydro-
meteorological Disasters: Recent Experiences &
DevelopmentsTi Le-Huu
Water Resources SectionEnvironment and Sustainable
Development DivisionUNESCAP
UNESCAP
Objectives of the projectPromote sound assessment methodology for decision-making in Asia & PacificIdentify systematic approaches to integrate disaster risk management into socio-economic developmentCase studies for priority policies & strategiesIdentification of future directions
UNESCAP
UNESCAP
Background
Importance of natural disasters in Asia and the PacificIncreasing impacts of disasters on the developing countriesMost of the World’s poor live in Asia and obvious increasing impacts of disasters on the poor
UNESCAP
Source: Munich Re, 2005
UNESCAP
**** **
**TIMETIME
GR
OSS
CA
PITA
L FO
RM
ATI
ON
GR
OSS
CA
PITA
L FO
RM
ATI
ON DEVELOPING DEVELOPING
COUNTRIIESCOUNTRIIESINDUSTRIALIZED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES
** DISASTDISASTERER
EFFECT OF DISASTERS ON CAPITAL FORMATION Adapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcoseconómicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países(BID, 1999)
UNESCAP
UNESCAP
UNESCAP
UNESCAP International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain -Brussels -
UNESCAP
UNESCAP
(Damage in US$ thousands)
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net - UniversitéCatholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"
UNESCAP
In India, recent trends are decreasing.In Thailand, overall trends are increasing, except recent damage trendIn Philippines, all trends are increasing, except recent house
UNESCAP
In Japan and ROK, decreasing trends of disasters impact are obvious, although it is much clearer in the case of Japan
UNESCAP
Actual process and changes
Complexity of systems: procedures and standardsAcceptance of conceptPractical arrangementsNew issuesTowards standardization
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ArrangementsSeven case studiesUNESCAP provides technical back up to case studiesCountry teams play prominent rolesLearning from the past to propose changesComplementary among countries
UNESCAP
The case studies
China: floodLao PDR: floodPakistan: droughtPhilippines: flood & typhoonSri Lanka: flood & droughtThailand: flood & landslidesViet Nam: flood
UNESCAP China case study
Flood the Huai He River Basin –Zhouxian County – An HuiProvinceZhouxian County is one of the poorest county of the countryIndirect loss > 40% direct damageImpacts on the housing sector, most important. Possible procedures for systematic assessment were identified Recommendations: adoption with new formats for data collection and allocation of emergency resources.
UNESCAP Lao case study
Flood in Vientiane plainIndirect loss in agriculture > 50% direct damageIndirect loss in water supply > 40%Indirect loss in transport > 20%Total loss has almost doubled the initial estimateRecommendations: adoption with new formats for data collection
UNESCAP Pakistan Case study
Indirect loss in livestock > 70% of direct damageIndirect loss in orchards > 70%Indirect loss in wheat > 100%Total loss: Rs32 billion versus Rs3.5 billion of direct damage Total loss: twice of GRDPRecommendation: templates for future assessment
UNESCAP Philippine case study
Total loss > 3 times direct damageMacro-economic model was supported by detailed ECLAC assessmentSystematic method of assessment of crop damage was incorporatedMacro-economic modelling was used to support systematic assessmentRecommendation: adoption for assessment and resources allocationTemplates being prepared
UNESCAP
h
Tillering Panicle Initiation Flowering Ri
ence Estimated Yield Loss (%)
10 15 - 25 10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 45 15 – 25 10 20 - 30 30 - 80 2 0 – 30 15 30 - 50 50 - 100 30 - 70 15
PADDY: Yield Loss in Clear Water
Flooding
PADDY: Yield Loss in Clear Water
Flooding
Source: Dep of Agricultrue, Philippines
UNESCAP CORNYield Loss Due to
Strong Wind
CORNYield Loss Due to
Strong Wind
☻☻
Growth Stage
Vegetative Reproductive Maturing WindVelocity: 101 - 150 KPH Estimated Yield Loss (%)
< 12 hrs 20 55 25 ≥ 12 hrs 25 60 30
Wind Velocity: > 150 KPH Estimated Yield Loss (%)
< 12 hrs 40 80 60 ≥ 12 hrs 50 80 -100 75
Source: Dep of Agricultrue, Philippines
UNESCAP Sri Lanka case study
Total loss Rs11.4 billion > direct damage of Rs2.78 billionIndirect loss in agriculture > 100% direct damageSocial sector, incl. housing a major area of policy concernCentral Bank has agreed to adopt the methodology for future assessment
UNESCAP Thai case study
Flash flood and landslidesFirst efforts mainly by Government to carry out field investigationsHas improved existing data collection systemWill further apply to other recent landslides
UNESCAP
Vietnamese case study
Indirect impacts = 100% direct damage, especially for fruit cropHousing accounts 77% total impactsHouses are classified to facilitate rapid assessmentApplication being made for contingency planning
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Future directions
Systematic training program: Standardization to facilitate applicationEstablishment of Network of expertsIntegration of assessment for effective implementation of HFASupport GRIP
UNESCAP
disasterrisk
hotspots
Mortality
Cyclone
Totaleconomiclosses
Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea
Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP
UNESCAP
disasterrisk
hotspots
Drought
Mortality
Totaleconomiclosses
Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea
Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP
UNESCAP
disasterrisk
hotspots
Flood
Mortality
Totaleconomiclosses
Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea
Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP
UNESCAP
disasterrisk
hotspots
Earthquake
Mortality
Totaleconomiclosses
Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea
Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP
UNESCAP
disasterrisk
hotspots
Landslide
Mortality
Totaleconomiclosses
Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea
Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP
UNESCAP
disasterrisk
hotspots
Highest hazard risk
Mortality
Totaleconomiclosses
Economiclosses inproportioto GDPper unitarea
Source: UNDP-World Bank, GRIP
UNESCAP
Thank you