Assessment System of Socio-Economic impacts of Water-related Disasters for Infrastructure

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Assessment System of Socio-Economic impacts of Water-related Disasters for Infrastructure. 2010 Typhoon Committee Workshop 5-10 SEP 2010, MACAO. Purpose of Project. Suggesting a scheme to construct an integrated assessment system of flood control measures. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Assessment System of Socio-Economic impacts of Water-related Disasters for Infrastructure

  • Suggesting a scheme to construct an integrated assessment system of flood control measuresEstablishment of a scheme to select optimum economic flood control measuresConstruction of an assessment system applicable for members of the typhoon committeeConstructing reasonable and integrated assessment system of flood control measures

  • Flood control assessment system2008200920102011Present status analysisand establishment of plansRequirements analysis of users and analysis of structural measuresSystem, Inside module constructionMaintenance and utilizationFraming the plans for maintenance and utilization

  • Classification for Local characteristicHuman life damage in flood damage occurrence

    ClassCriterion of applicatonApplicationBig cityCity over millionsSeoul and 5 metropolitan citiesMidium size cityCity under millionsGyeongGi province etcSmall cityDeveloped city from farming areaJeju provinceFarming areaArea over 500 per/km^2 populaton densityMountain areaOther area except farming area

    Class(per/ha)Big cityMidium size citySmall cityFarming areaMountain areaDeath0.0040.0040.0010.0020.002Injury0.0020.0020.0010.0010.002

  • Economic index research by the administrative districtLocal GDP research - Analysis results are not correct to use only population for classification index - Comprehensive indexes are population density and per GDPPopulation densityPer GDP

    Dist.(Million)2005200620072008Seoul20.8721.9723.5924.48Pusan13.4013.9114.9416.12Daegu11.4712.1813.0613.59Inchun15.6716.6818.2918.27Gwangju13.0914.0714.7315.52Daejun13.6414.0914.9215.81Ulsan38.9740.2244.5148.62Gyeonggi15.9516.7117.5417.76Gangwon15.4616.3117.6718.10Chungbuk18.0018.8620.2220.30Chungnam24.7626.6428.4829.96Joenbuk13.8814.7416.1416.88Jeonnam23.1223.0626.0329.59Gyeongbuk23.2923.6624.2826.16Gyeongnam18.7419.8122.1323.93Jeju14.7114.9016.0416.42

  • The spread of population & life expectancy investigation by administrative districtUse for casualty loss amount estimation

    Dist.Average agePopulationLife exp.ManWomanAve.ManWomanSeoul34.636.335.54,837,1124,925,43445.8Pusan35.538.036.71,735,8601,776,68742.1Daegu33.836.535.21,227,1681,228,84844.3Inchun33.435.134.21,262,6121,255,06845.3Gwangju32.334.333.3701,265712,37946.5Daejun32.834.733.8720,734717,81746.5Ulsan32.234.133.1538,031506,90345.6Gyeonggi33.034.633.85,192,0075,148,99946.3Gangwon36.339.337.8733,266727,50441.4Chungbuk35.238.236.7730,084723,78842.5Chungnam36.339.437.8945,540933,87741.8Joenbuk36.239.838.0874,662904,21741.5Jeonnam37.842.340.1889,805925,36939.4Gyeongbuk36.540.538.51,292,6731,302,04640.9Gyeongnam34.638.036.31,521,1101,519,88342.4Jeju33.537.135.3263,721266,96545.1---23,465,65023,575,784

  • The spread of population & life expectancy investigation by administrative districtEstimation of Casualty loss amount - Death + Injury+ Victim loss amount - Death loss amount = Flooding area() Death rate of flooding area(per/) life expectancy(yr) per GDP - Injury loss amount = Flooding area() Injury rate of flooding area(per/) life expectancy(yr) per GDP/ 2 - Victim loss amount = Flooding area() Victim rate of flooding area(per/) evacuation day(day) per GDP / 365(day)

    Dist.(Million)Death lossInjury lossVictim lossPop. density (per/)Seoul955.8 477.9 0.5718 16231.7 Pusan564.1 282.1 0.3671 4612.0 Daegu508.1 254.1 0.3142 2787.9 Inchun709.9 354.9 0.4293 2546.6 Gwangju608.7 304.3 0.3586 2829.8 Daejun634.3 317.1 0.3737 2672.0 Ulsan1777.0 888.5 1.0677 992.6 Gyeonggi738.5 369.2 0.4370 1028.1 Gangwon640.0 320.0 0.4236 88.2 Chungbuk765.0 382.5 0.4932 196.5 Chungnam1035.0 517.5 0.6784 219.7 Joenbuk576.0 288.0 0.3803 221.5 Jeonnam910.9 455.5 0.6334 150.7 Gyeongbuk952.6 476.3 0.6381 137.1 Gyeongnam794.6 397.3 0.5134 290.5 Jeju663.4 331.7 0.4030 287.8

  • Constuction to use various digital map from GIS basisAdministrative district mapDEM(1/5,000, 1/25,000)Land use map - Use of satellite imagesComputation through space information compositionAdministrative districtSpace information compositionLand useFlooding areaFlooding depth

  • 100-YEAR 1-HOUR RAINFALL The procedure of estimating probabilistic precipitationMeteorological data constructionApplying probabilistic distributionParameter estimationGoodness of fit testSelecting the optimum distributionEstimating probabilistic precipitationNormal, Lognormal, Gamma, Log-pearson type III, GEV, Gubel, Log-Gumbel, WeibullMaximum likelihood, Method of momentsColmogorov-Smirnov,Cramer-von-Mises,PPCC, x2Time distributionHuff, Yen and Chow

  • Runoff simulation using hydrologic model(Ref. A guideline for the flood estimation of urban area, 2008)

    Urban areaNatural areaEffective rainfallInitial lossProper values according to pervious and impervious regionNRCS methodInfiltrationHorton equation for the rate curve of infiltration capacity Green-Ampt, NRCSHorton equation for the rate curve of infiltration capacity Green-Ampt, NRCSBasin dataBasin areaEstimate with Topography(GIS), etcEstimate with Topography(GIS), etcImpervious areaEstimate separatelyIndirect application (When CN is estimated)Surface runoffEstimation methodStorage equation, Kinematic wave, etcClark, SCS, Snyder, Nakayasu, etcMain parameterBasin length and slopeSurface roughness coefficientArrival and delay timeStorage coefficient UniquenessSeparating basins according to drainage systemSeparating basins according to streams and main simulation pointsChannel runoffEstimation methodKinematic waveDiffusive waveHydrodynamic method, etcMuskingumMuskingum-CungeKinematic wave, etcMain parameterlength and slope of Channel and sewerRoughness coefficient, etc Length and slope of channelRoughness coefficient Storage constant, etcUniquenessPressured flow analysis for sewer full of water Open channel analysisModelsILLUDAS, SWMM, etcHEC-1, HEC-HMS, etc

  • Initial setupAssets & mapsFlood simulationDamage estimationAnalysisCurrency unit(,$,.)Area unit(m2, km2,.)Load basin mapSet the range of asset classifications according to mapCreate the tables of assetsInput the tables or Use default values Set a flood simulation methodCreate cross sections of floodplainGenerate floodplain and depth gridGenerate HEC-RAS inputRun HEC-RASImport simulated inundation with each flood control measures Set the range of assets to estimate damageEstimate the amount of loss for each flood control measuresSet an analysis methodAnalyze the socio-economic values of flood control measuresSuggest the optimum measuresABA :Simulate flood inundation using HEC-RAS model B : Import simulated inundation results from another model available for an applied basin Initial setup and inputsFlood and damage estimationSocio-Economic analysisStandards of damage loss - Actual recovery costs- National compensation costs

  • Model selection for the floodplain simulation

  • River flood simulation using HEC-RASHEC-RAS is widely used and accepted in particular for floodplain management and flood insurance studies (Karle, 2008)HEC-RAS in the simulation of extreme glacial outburst flood is accurate enough for general flood protection purpose (Alho et al., 2008)When more and more cross-sections were used, the simulation result of HEC-RAS was more similar to FESWMS 2D model (Cook et al, 2008)The HEC-RAS and TELEMAC-2D models perform equally well in predicting the inundated area when calibrated, whereas the performance of the LISFLOOD-FP model is dependent on the calibration data used (Horritt et al., 2002)

  • Floodplain treatment in HEC-RAS (Tayefi et al., 2007)

  • Total damage from flood The total amount of cost to be paid to recover the socio-economic activities to the level possible if flood did not occur Consisted of direct and potential damage

  • Direct damage (primary damage)Destroyed constructions and agricultural area, damaged facilities and products, and injured people Recoverable Damage (RD)- The cases of Constructions, facilities, and products that can be reconstructed or produced through paying cost - The standard of damage estimation is the cost to reconstruct and replace the damaged stuffs Non-Recoverable Damage (NRD)- The cases of People, livestock, agricultural products that can not be replaced by simply paying cost - The standard of damage estimation in this case is the amount of loss

  • Potential damage (secondary damage)Damage During a Recovery period (DDR)- Costs engendered during a recovery from such cases as the interruption of production facilities, the inability of public facility, and the traffic jams caused by destroyed roadsDamage After a Recovery period (DAR)- As the example of a production facility deprived of buyers during a recovery, some facilities could have loss for their profit even though they have fully recovered for their facilities

  • Additional cases of damageIntangible damage (Grigg, 1975) - Some categories of intangible damage are: environmental quality, social well being, and aesthetic valuesUncertainty damage (Grigg, 1975)- The loss from uncertainty damage is from the stress of the occupants of a flood plain suffer because of the uncertainty with regard to when flood will occur and how serious it will be Both intangible and uncertainty damage can be categorized as potential damage

  • Procedure to estimate the flood damages by MD-FDA

  • CasualtiesTo estimate the number of death and injury, the concept of ratio from the number of death and injury per area is usedThe socio-economical loss of death is the function of life expectancy and GDPThe loss of injury is 50 % of the death according to the domestic law of Korea. Thus the percent is flexible with the inherent standards of a applied basin for the severity ratio of injury to death(Unit: n/ha)The number of death and injury per flooded area (Ref. A study on the Economic Analysis