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Asset Management and Life & Pensions Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016

Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

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Page 1: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Asset Management and Life & Pensions Investor presentation

Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management

May 26, 2016

Page 2: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

14.00 – 14.05

14.05 – 14.25

14.25 – 14.45

14.45 – 15.15

Introduction to Wealth Management Snorre Storset

Asset Management Christian Hyldahl

Life & Pensions Snorre Storset

Concluding remarks and Q&A All

Agenda

2

Page 3: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Wealth Management comprises Private Banking, Asset Management and Life & Pensions

3

Key figures

Denmark 31%

Sweden 22%

Int. 20%

Operating income1 Operating profit2

Assets under Management3

31%

29%

40% 35%

19%

46%

32%

18% 23%

27%

Life & Pensions

Asset Management Private Banking

100% = EUR 1,929m 100% = EUR 1,127m 100% = EUR 290.9bn

1) Operating income in 2015 2) Operating Profit in 2015, “Wealth Management other” is excl. from pie chart, but incl. in total number

3) Per end-Q1 2016, Life & Pension incl. Pension Pools

Retail Funds Private Banking AM Inst & Wholesale clients Life & Pensions

Private Banking Asset Management

Life & Pensions

Page 4: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

4

1,929

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011

1,127

2011 2013 2012 2014 2015

288

2012 2013 2014 2011 2015

20% profit CAGR since 2011

Operating income, EURm Operating profit, EURm AuM, EURbn

Wealth Management

Page 5: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

A growing share of the Group

5

Denmark 31%

Sweden 22%

Int. 20%

Operating income Operating profit Economic capital

19% 24% 10%

Rest of Nordea Group Wealth Management

+3pp +4pp +1pp

Development versus 2014

Business area contribution, 2015

Page 6: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Asset Management From a Nordic to a leading European asset manager

Page 7: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Asset Management at a glance

7

Denmark 31%

Sweden 22%

Int. 20%

1) External clients (Institutions and 3rd party distributors) 2) Per end-Q1 2016

Diversified client base Asset mix AuM By benchmark

16%

25%

60%

48%

18%

34%

Institutional Wholesale Rest of the world

European Nordic

Assets under Management EUR 193bn2

1

1

Nordea Life & Pensions, Retail & Private Banking

33%

6% 23%

37%

Money Market Fixed Income

Equities Multi Assets

Page 8: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Top ranked by Morningstar on European fund net flows for 4 consecutive years (actively managed funds), EURbn

8

Overall rating 3 year flows 2013-15

Best selling funds 2016 YTD March

Overall rating 2016 YTD March

Source: Morningstars’ estimated 2016 net flow in OE mutual funds (excl. Money market, funds of funds & ETF´s) data extracted 22.04.2016.

Source: Morningstars’ estimated 2016 net flow in OE mutual funds (excl. Money market, funds of funds & Feeder ) data extracted 22.4.2016.

Source: Morningstars’ estimated 3Y net flow in OE mutual funds (excl. Money market, funds of funds & ETF´s) data extracted 29.03.2016.

Nordea 4.3

Eurizon Capital 2.4

Aviva 2.2

Mercer Global Investments 2.1

Northern Trust 1.6

DNB 1.3

Old Mutual 1.2

Vanguard 1.2

Credit Suisse 1.0

Smith & Williamson 1.0

Aberdeen UK Property Feeder 3.5

JPM Global Macro Opportunities 2.9

Nordea Stable Return 2.6

BlueBay Global Multi-Asset Credit 1.4

Old Mutual Global Eq Abs Return 1.4

MMAccess II EUR Multi Credit 1.3

Mercer Investment 3 CCF 1.2

Eurizon EasyFund Treasury EUR 1.1

Henderson Instl Shrt-Dur Bd 1.1

Invesco Global Targeted Returns 1.1

BlackRock 61.8

JP Morgan 42.5

Eurizon Capital 36.1

Nordea 33.3

Deutsche Asset Mgmt. 28.3

Allianz Global Investors 26.7

Standard Life 24.8

Union Investment 24.8

UBS 24.2

Pioneer Investments 23.8

#1 #4 #4 excl. Stable

Return fund #3

Unconstrained outcome oriented fund 5Y pa return / vol.: 7.49% / 4.19%

(Sharpe : 1.64) Well positioned for LYE Best in class 10Y track record

Page 9: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

9

AuM development from net flow and market appreciation, EURbn

Delivered strong AuM growth driven by high net flows

Q1 2016 Q4 2010

+30

+27

193

112 +24

Avg. annual net flows of 7% of AuM since 2011

Net flow split on Group internal / external distribution has in the period been 46% / 54%

In 2015 vast part of net flow went into Multi Assets

Avg. market appreciation of 5% of AUM since 2011

Fluctuated in line with the general market

Acc. Net Flow - Wholesale and Institutional Acc. Net Flow - Nordea Retail, Private Banking & Life

Acc. Market appreciation

Page 10: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

171 208 289

374

530

0

1 00

2 00

3 00

4 00

5 00

6 00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Delivered strong earnings growth

10

Income development, EURm

Profit development, EURm

Margin improvement derived mainly from changes in client and product mix

Higher growth in Retail channels i.e. both through Nordea and Wholesale compared to Institutional Clients and Nordea Trad. Life

Margins 2015

Nordea Retail, Private Banking and Life & Pensions 41bp

Wholesale and Institutional Clients 41bp

3 years earnings growth: EUR 322m

383 423 512

597 767

34

41

3 0

3 2

3 4

3 6

3 8

4 0

4 2

4 4

4 6

4 8

5 0

0

1 00

2 00

3 00

4 00

5 00

6 00

7 00

8 00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Income Margin, bps

Page 11: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

11

82% of composites outperformed benchmarks in 3Y

42% of our rated funds have 4- or 5-Star Morningstar ratings vs. 32.5% average2

1) Gross of fee 2) Including funds being marketed in Luxembourg

Strong investment performance Investment performance last 3Y1

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0 20 40 60 80 100

AuM Cumulative – based on 605 portfolios

% of the AuM with positive Excess Return

Exc

ess

retu

rn Negative

18% Positive excess return

82% Avg. excess return 1.18%

Page 12: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Nordea distribution AuM Development, EURbn

Wholesale & Institutional distribution AuM Development, EURbn

Multi channel distribution network – focus on brand building in Europe

12

115115107928571

Q1/16 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Nordea Life & Pensions, Retail & Private Banking

39 43 50 48 48

17 26 31

446

2014

67

2015

74 78

Q1/16 2013

55 11

2012

53 9

2011

45

Institutional Wholesale

Page 13: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Growing Wholesale distribution throughout Europe

13

Asset country split, EUR 31bn

6%

15%

18%

21%

8%

6%

10% 16% Benelux

Rest of the world

Germany Italy

UK

Iberia Swiss/Austria

France

40% 45%

14%

Multi Assets Equities Fixed Income

Asset mix, EUR 31bn

Well diversified asset, client and country

mix 14 strategies comprise 80% of assets 27 strategies comprise 90% of assets

High share of AuM in defensive strategies

Servicing ~300 international fund distributors incl. 25 global wealth managers

Sales force serviced by central client/product service hub in Luxembourg

Both selling to advisory and discretionary segment

Page 14: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Stable institutional client base, with focus on increasing margins

14

Asset country split, EUR 48bn

25% 55%

7%

13%

Multi Assets Equities Money Market Fixed Income

Asset mix, EUR 48bn

1) Prospera

10% 40%

9% 10%

14%

17% Rest of the world

Denmark

Finland Norway

Germany Sweden

Stable Institutional client base focusing on increasing value of AuM

Servicing more than 475 Nordic and international clients Sales force located in the Nordics,

Germany, UK and US serviced by central client service hub in Copenhagen

#1 ranked by Nordic institutions1

Page 15: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Strong product offering to Nordea Retail, Private Banking & Life

15

11%

19%

34%

34% 2%

Norway Finland Denmark Sweden

International

Asset country split, EUR 115bn

Asset mix, EUR 115bn

28%

8%

40%

25%

Fixed Income Money Market

Multi Assets Equities

#1 in Nordic retail fund market with a 16% market share

Strong all weather product range Multi Assets solutions in high demand Broad fund range supports Nordea Life’s

transformation to market return products

Page 16: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

18.7 17.1 15.9 13.9 12.6

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Cost/ Avg. AuM

Efficient and scalable platform

16

Cost development, EURm

Cost/Avg. AuM, Bps

212 216 223 223 237 55%

31%

0 .0 %

1 0. 0 %

2 0. 0 %

3 0. 0 %

4 0. 0 %

5 0. 0 %

6 0. 0 %

0

5 0

1 00

1 50

2 00

2 50

3 00

3 50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Costs C/I

C/I ratio is among the lowest in the European asset management industry Has been achieved through scale and

simplification

Expected future C/I to be in range of 30-35% The strong growth requires

investments in sales support and operations

Increased work in relation to regulation and compliance

IT investments

Page 17: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Business risks and challenges

17

Beta Low NAV sensitivity due to defensive product mix Diversified client base - documented ability to attract net

flows in volatile market environment

MiFID

Following implementation closely Nordea will not be categorised as independent advisor Substantial implementation costs Opportunities for Wholesale distribution

Margin pressure

Traditional long only equity products constitute small part of AuM ~21%

Strong investment performance with 82% of AuM outperforming

Multi Asset offering is resilient to margin pressure

Page 18: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Strong position for future growth

18

Multi channel distribution

Strong distribution through Nordea’s network in the Nordic region that has a strong savings culture

Growing Wholesale distribution throughout Europe

Exploit strong momentum in

Europe

Developed from almost unknown to strong and well recognised asset manager

Cross sale opportunities by becoming preferred partner

All weather product range

Broad product range distributed through all channels Strong internal capabilities supplemented with external ESG integration

Low yield environment

Well positioned through leading Multi-Assets competences recognised across the client base

Migration from savings accounts to savings products

Scalable platform

Global industry where scale is a prerequisite to stay competitive

Coping with increased regulatory requirements

Page 19: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Life & Pensions Low-cost and capital efficient business model

Page 20: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Largest Life & Pensions provider in the Nordic countries

20

Market leader in market return products

Peer5

4%

Peer4

5%

Peer3

6%

Peer2

9%

Peer1

11%

Nordea

25%

#1 #1 #1 #3

Growth in GWP vs Q4/14

Main focus areas

Life & Pensions MRP market share 12 months rolling est., Q4/15 Finland & Sweden: Individual life

savings and risk-related products. Nordea Bank distribution

Denmark & Norway: Corporate & individual pensions and risk-related products. NLP’s sales force, Nordea Bank & external distribution

Pension Funds: Poland, Estonia & Latvia

7% 1% 6% 4% 4% 15%

Finland Sweden Norway Denmark

Page 21: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Responding to market development

21

Trends

Cost efficiency

Capital efficiency

Product portfolio optimised

Bancassurance

Profitability (RoE) over volume (GWP)

Low yield environment

Regulatory transformation

Demographics and customer behaviour

Strategic response

Page 22: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Delivered a turnaround – Strong starting point

22

5.9 5.7 6.7 7.6 8.5

56% 72%

82% 87% 89%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total GWP R12m MRP share of GWP

46 51 53 57 61

32% 42%

50% 52% 58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total AUM MRP share of AUM

220 214 209 206 197

53% 43% 43%

37% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

180

190

200

210

220

230

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total costs C/I

GWP development, EURbn

Cost development, EURm

AuM development, EURbn RoE development, EURm

1,649 1,693 1,754 1,517 1,565 1,614 1,674

1,498 1,566 1,674 1,703 1,803

12.0%

18.5%

5 .0 %

7 .0 %

9 .0 %

1 1. 0 %

1 3. 0 %

1 5. 0 %

1 7. 0 %

1 9. 0 %

0

5 00

1 00 0

1 50 0

2 00 0

2 50 0

Q2/13 Q4/13 Q2/14 Q4/14 Q2/15 Q4/15

Equity YTD RoE

Page 23: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Low cost growth through bancassurance

23

Bank sold market return products, GWP EURbn

Simplified product options

Automated processes

Deep integration with the Bank

Low yield environment

New product generation 3.1 3.24.2

5.16.1

2013 2014 2015 2011 2012

Page 24: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

+136%

-15%

Market Return Company also in terms of AuM

24

AuM split by product category, EURbn

Net flow split by product category, EURbn

31 30 26 27

15 22 27 30 35

26

2012 2013 2014 2015 2011

53 46

57 61

52

-1.0 -1.5-2.6

-1.8 -2.3

2.2 2.83.5 3.8 4.2

2014 2013 2015 2012 2011

MRP Trad

Page 25: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Strong growth in market return and risk profits

25

Product profits – Market return and Risk, EURm

2012 2014 2013 2015

294

170

237

199

Risk MRP

Page 26: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Significantly improved cost efficiency

26

GWP development, EURbn

Cost/AuM, Bps

Costs/GWP, %

220 214

209 206 197

53%

43% 43% 37%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

180

190

200

210

220

230

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total costs C/I

48 40 38 35 33

2012 2011 2014 2013 2015

4.0 4.1 3.2 2.7 2.4

2011 2015 2014 2013 2012

Page 27: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Solvency II considerations

27

Attractive new market return and risk business

Disciplined risk management of legacy traditional business

– Liability Driven Investments

Cost efficiency

Further optimisation of investment strategy/hedging

Volatility adjustment in DK, NO, FI

No use of matching adjustment

Transitional on technical provisions in NO

Equity transitionals

Partial internal model longevity in DK

IORP1 exception in SE

Business driven Regulatory driven

1) Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision

Page 28: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Strong Solvency II capital position enabled dividend in Q1 2016

28

Solvency II capital position , EURbn Current SCR1 Composition

2.6

4.5

2.4

4.2

Q4 2015 Q1 2016

SCR Own Funds

27% 2%

67%

3%

1%

24%

18% 12%

11% 2% 11%

22%

27%

44% 29%

Market Risk drivers

Own funds contribution

175% 169% Health underwriting risks

Operational Risk Default risk

Market risks Life underwriting risk

Spread

Type2 equities Type1 equities

Property

Interest rate

Currency

Concentration

T2 Subordinated loans T1 Other reconciliation reserve T1 Shareholder’s equity

1) Solvency capital requirement

Page 29: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Key sensitivities

29

Key sensitivities on Q4 2015 position

Scenarios tested as at 31.12.2015 IR -/+ 50 bps: Instantaneous parallel shift of interest rates (-/+ 50 bps) Eq -12%/-25%: Instantaneous -12% /-25% decrease in equity investments A -/+: Instantaneous parallel shift of interest rates (-/+ 50 bps) combined with decreased equities (-12%) and properties (-3%) Lapse: Instantaneous mass lapse (+10%)

174%

168%

167%

167%

171%

171%

170%

175%

50% 200% 0% 100% 150%

Equity -12%

A+

A-

Base

-50bp

Lapse

+50bp

Equity -25%

Page 30: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Business model supporting future dividend capacity

30

Capital requirement vs. contribution, EURm

Dividends paid: EUR 300m in 2013, EUR 220m 2014, EUR 300m in Q1 2016

Self-financing growth in market return and risk products

Capital release from run-off traditional book

Balance sheet volatility management

Trad MRP

Solvency capital requirement Reconciliation reserve

Page 31: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Continue to improve quality of Life

31

Market return company

Low cost growth through bancassurance

Competitive product offering

Leading market position

Next generation product offering fuel growth

Life business platform efficiency improve further

Solvency II optimised business model/strategy

Strong risk culture

Strong platform RoE 18% in 2018

Page 32: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Concluding remarks and Q&A

Page 33: Asset Management and Life & Pensions and Life...Investor presentation Snorre Storset, Head of Wealth Management Christian Hyldahl, Head of Asset Management May 26, 2016 14.00 – 14.05

Thank you for listening! Contact information: Head of Investor Relations Rodney Alfvén [email protected] Mob.: +46 722 35 05 15 Senior Investor Relations Officer Andreas Larsson [email protected] Mob.: +46 709 70 75 55