Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 1. Christian Spiering, DESY ASPERA-2 kickoff meeting Hamburg July 7, 2009

Astroparticle Physics for Europe

C. Spiering, Planck 09 1.

Christian Spiering, DESY

ASPERA-2 kickoff meetingHamburg July 7, 2009



Emergence



• science case• status: overview • recommendations

for convergence

• Critical assessment of plans

• Calendar for milestones and decisions

• Input for ESFRI Roadmap

• Coordinated with ASTRONET



KM3NeT

Einstein Telescope(LISA)

Auger-Nord

CTA

Ton-scaleDouble Beta

Ton-scale Dark Matter

Megaton



KM3NeT


Auger-Nord

CTA



Megaton

Investment and maintenance (no personnel)



From Deliverable D1.2

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AstroparticlePhysics

Particle Astrophysics

> factor 3 increaseover last decade



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KM3NeT

CTA

Auger-N

GERDA-III

Direct nu Mass

SuperNemo

Gerda, Cuore

Rest-DM, no IS,Ult,Sim

Eureca

Xenon-1to

All-Rest

Requests (here without DAMA-1 ton and Frejus new lab)

6 M€ 09/11 15 M€ 11/13



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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

E.T.

KM3NeT

Megaton

CTA

Auger-North

Dark Matter

Neutrino Mass

ExistingR&D, new initiatives

- without DAMA and new Frejus lab - all projects shifted according to realistic estimates- CTA: 1/3 from non-Europe- KM3NeT: 250 M€ 200 M€- Megaton: Europe contributes only 200-300 M€- DM and DBD shared with US- keep 20% for R&D and new initiatives



020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

E.T.

KM3NeT

Megaton

CTA

Auger-North

Dark Matter

Neutrino Mass


- can do it within a factor ~2 smooth increase over 8-10 years (investment) - personnel will increase by less



020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

E.T.

KM3NeT

Megaton

CTA

Auger-North

Dark Matter

Neutrino Mass


Can we do it even cheaper ?



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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

KM3NeT

MegatonCTAAuger

DBDDM

ET

- further reduce CTA- further shift and reduce Megaton- further shift E.T.- somewhat reduce new initiatives

Must not reduce Augerand KM3NeT. Eitheryou build it huge or youdo not build it at all !

All this is problematic !!



Dark Matter



WIMPs Neutralinos Kaluza-Klein particles …

Axinos Super-WIMPs Axions Axion-like light bosons Sterile neutrinos Q-balls WIMPzillas Elementary BHs …

DM candidates:Direct Detection Indirect

Detection

LHC

WIMPs

SuperWIMPs

Axions & axion-like particles

Q-balls

BHs

WIMPzillas

Lasers

SuperWIMPs



WIMPs Neutralinos Kaluza-Klein particles …

Axinos Super-WIMPs Axions Axion-like light bosons Sterile neutrinos Q-balls WIMPzillas Elementary BHs …

DM candidates:Direct Detection

WIMPs

target of roadmap recommendation



SUF CDMS I

LiFElegant V&VI

BaksanIGEX

Gran SassoDAMA/LIBRACRESST I/IIGenius TFCUORICINOXENONWArP

CanFrancIGEXROSEBUDANAIS

LSMEDELWEISS I/II

BoulbyNaIADZEPLIN I/II/IIIDRIFT 1/2

Soudan CDMS II

XMASSCandle

KIMS

ORPHEUS

FNAL COUPP

SNOLABPicassoDEAPSuperCDMS

ArDM

DUSELLUXCLEANSIGN

Figure from D. Bauer, TAUP



10-4

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

- BackgroundBackground- StabilityStability- Funding Funding - InfrastructureInfrastructure


C. Spiering, Planck 09 17.1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10-4

10-10

10-8

10-6

Cro

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We are now here


C. Spiering, Planck 09 18.1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10-4

10-10

10-8

10-6

Cro

ss s

ectio

n (p

b)

- Background - Background (liquids)(liquids)

- Stability Stability (bolometers)(bolometers)

Expectation late 2010: CDMS

CRESST, EURECA Xenon-100

Warp-140 ….



CRESST

EdelweissEURECA-

100EURECA

@ ton scale

LXe

LAr

LAr

LXe

…

Now: 10 kg scale 2009/12: 100 kg scale 2011-17: constr. ton scale

Towards ton-scale zero-background detectors

modular expansion, cooperation with CDMS (USA)

Darwin



• Support current round of experiments at high priority, also technology development towards their next-generation versions

• A recommendation on which of the technologies should first move to a next stage can only be made after first results from present experiments with 10-100 kg target mass become available and after noise rejection and sensitivity/cost ratio for ton-scale detectors can be judged on a more realistic basis.

• This milestone can be reached by 2010 or 2011.

• As soon as one of the technologies turns out to be clearly superior in sensitivity, cost, and timing Promote it with priority! At the same time, a second technology must be systematically prepared since a possible positive observation by the first method would call for a prompt, independent confirmation.

• In an ideal scenario, LHC observations of new particles at the weak scale could place these observations in a well-confined particle physics context. Also, direct detection would be supported by indirect signatures. In case of a discovery, “smoking-gun signatures” of direct detection such as directionality and annual variations would be measured in detail.



Properties of Neutrinos



• Direct Mass Measurements – KATRIN, start 2012, down to 0.2 eV

– MARE R&D

• Double Beta Decay Experiments– See following slides

• Mixing Parameters– Double CHOOZ– T2K, CNGS

(with European participation)



CANDLESXMASSDCBASNO

+

EXOMAJORAN

A

GERDACUORECOBRA

SUPERNEMO

TGV

NEXT





2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014

now

design study

construction

operation

operation

construction

operation

operation

NEMO-3

Super-NEMO

CUORICINO

CUORE

bolometric 41 kg 130Te

construction operation GERDA


tracking 8 kg 130Mo/82Se

tracking 100 kg 150Nd/82Se

18 40 kg 76Ge

construction operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130Xedesign study

(Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding)

Roadmap presentation 08



2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014

now

design study

construction

operation

operation

construction

operation

oper

NEMO-3

Super-NEMO

CUORICINO

CUORE


construction operation GERDA


tracking 8 kg 130Mo/82Se

tracking 100 kg 150Nd/82Se

18 40 kg 76Ge

Construct. operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130Xedesign study

(Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding)



• Priority to experiments starting operation within 5 years– GERDA (phase I and II) – CUORE – Super-NEMO

• Complementary nuclei/methods essential to judge any positive claim or upper limit.

• Will scrutinize the claimed evidence in 76Ge, will touch the “inverted hierarchy” mass range.

• Other methods may become competitive in the future.• At the same time, envisage an experiment on the 1-ton-isotope

scale, which will peer deep into the inverted hierarchy range. Two options discussed, both with worldwide cost sharing:– GERDA III as merger of GERDA with Majorana (USA)– CUORE with enriched tellurium, USA participation.

• Milestone: Decision on the isotopes/ techniques 2012/13.



Low Energy Neutrino Astronomy and

Proton Decay



MEMPHYS 700 kton water

GLACIER100 kton liquid argon

LENA50 kt scintillator

50 m

FP7 design study



• Proton decay: improve sensitivity by > factor 10 and test a new class of Supersymmetry models

• Galactic Supernova: 104- 105 events Incredibly detailed information on the early SN phase

• Diffuse flux from past SN: probe cosmological star formation rate

• Solar neutrinos: details of the Standard Solar Model determined with percent accuracy

• Atmospheric neutrinos: high statistics would improve knowledge neutrino mixing and provide unique information on the neutrino mass hierarchy

• Geo-neutrinos: improve understanding of the Earth interior• Indirect WIMP search • Neutrinos from accelerators over a long baseline (also with

dedicated smaller detectors): neutrino properties



• Assess discovery potential of different options and sites and then converge to a common proposal in ~ 2010.

• Neccessity of a coherent approach with efforts in the USA and Japan is obvious. Worldwide coordination and cost sharing (in total 250-800 M€ per detector)

• Recommendation: We recommend supporting the work towards a large infrastructure for proton decay and low energy neutrino astronomy, possibly also accelerator neutrinos in long baseline experiments, in a worldwide context. Results of the LAGUNA FP7 design study are expected around 2010 and should be followed by work towards a technical design report. Depending on technology, site and worldwide cost sharing, construction could start between 2012 and 2015..



• Assess discovery potential of different options and sites and then converge to a common proposal in ~ 2010.

• Neccessity of a coherent approach with efforts in the USA and Japan is obvious. Worldwide coordination and cost sharing (in total 250-800 M€ per detector)

• Recommendation: We recommend supporting the work towards a large infrastructure for proton decay and low energy neutrino astronomy, possibly also accelerator neutrinos in long baseline experiments, in a worldwide context. Results of the LAGUNA FP7 design study are expected around 2010 and should be followed by work towards a technical design report. Depending on technology, site and worldwide cost sharing, construction could start between 2012 and 2015..



The High Energy Universe



primary mass composition

galactic sourcesmass composition

CR astronomy,GZK physics,HE neutrinos, …

galactic extragalactic

antimatter, dark matter, mass composition



primary mass composition

galactic sourcesmass composition

CR astronomy,GZK physics,HE neutrinos, …

galactic extragalactic

antimatter, dark matter, mass composition

Tantalizing results from Pamela

Launch AMS June 2010 !!

Auger



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Fly‘s eye

AGASa

HiRes

Auger-S

Auger-NJEM-EUSO(space)

Telescope Array

107Exposure(km² sr year)

year

similar: TUS

AGASA

AugerSouth

TA

AugerNorth



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AGASa

HiRes

Auger-S

Auger-NJEM-EUSO(space)

Telescope Array

107Exposure(km² sr year)

year

similar: TUS

AGASA

AugerSouth

TA

AugerNorth

Since last year:

- New skymap strengthens non-isotropy- CEN-A clustering ?!- AGN correlation has weakened- Heavy composition towards HE- HE suppression confirmed

- Request for Helmholtz „ignition funding“- Decadal Review, PASAG (USA)



• Auger-North: high statistics astronomy with reasonably fast data collection calls for a substantially larger array than Auger South, full sky coverage calls for a Northern site. A larger array would also allow a more detailed inspection of the high energy cut-off of the particle spectrum, which recently has been firmly established by Auger-South.

• Recommendation: The priority project for high energy cosmic ray physics is Auger. We encourage the agencies in different continents to work towards a common path for Auger-North. We recommend the construction of such a large array as soon as worldwide agreements allow.



2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014

now

design, prototypes

construction

construction + operation

operation

operation

construction

operation

operation

Oper.

MAGIC-I

MAGIC- II

H.E.S.S.

H.E.S.S.- II

CTA

four 11-m telescopes

+ one 25-m telescope

one 17-m telescope

2nd 17-m telescope

Coordination with

USA, Japan, Australia



Increased sensitivity

Extended energy range

Improved angular resolution

Observatory with flexible and robotic operation

Arrays in North and South for full sky coverage

50 to 100 large, medium and small telescopes

CTA



2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Design and Prototype Phase

Array layout

Components

Telescopes

Array construction

VERITAS

MAGIC II

H.E.S.S. IIFermi

Science operation

Startup meeting

FP7 proposal

Consortium

Japan will join CTAMoU with AGIS under preparation

Davis-Cotton vs. Schwarzschild?



• CTA: From “experiment” to “observatory”

• Expect ~ 1000 sources• Ultimately, a Northern and a Southern CTA instrument, should

provide full-sky coverage. Coordination with AGIS (USA))• CTA on ESFRI list and priority entry in the ASTRONET

roadmap.

• Recommendation: The priority project of VHE gamma astrophysics is CTA. We recommend design and prototyping of CTA and selection of site(s), and proceeding decidedly towards start of deployment in 2012.



FP6 Design Study/Fp7 Prep. Phase

oonstruction + operation


operation

operation

constrn.

operation

operation

operat

NT200, NT200+

ANTARES

AMANDA

IceCube

KM3NeT

GVD

c + o

R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO

design study construction + operation

operat

2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014

now



FP6 Design Study/Fp7 Prep. Phase

oonstruction + operation


operation

operation

constrn.

operation

operation

operat

NT200, NT200+

ANTARES

AMANDA

IceCube

KM3NeT

GVD

c + o

R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO

design study construction + operation

operat

2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014

now

ESFRI listASTRONET priority list



IceCube 3/4 complete

ANTARES again fully operational



IceCube 3/4 complete

TeV-PeV

PeV-EeV

IceCube full sky analysis (6 months 2008)does not reveal any hint for a point source

Challenges KM3NeT sensitivity !



factor

1000in 15 years !

KM3NeT target 3 years

Point sources: Tremendous progress in sensitivity over last decade



• Recommendation: The priority project for high energy neutrino astronomy is KM3NeT. Encouraged by the significant technical progress of recent years, the support for working towards KM3NeT is confirmed. Resources for a Mediterranean detector should be pooled into a single optimised design for a large research infrastructure, with installation starting in 2012. The sensitivity of KM3NeT must substantially exceed that of all existing neutrino detectors including IceCube.



Gravitational Waves



Virgo/LIGO

Adv Virgo/ Adv LIGO

Several to several hundred sources per year



103 to 105 sources per year

FP7 design study



´06 ´07 ´08 ´09 ´10 ´11 ´12 ´13 ´14 ´15 ´16 ´17 ´18 ´19 ´20 ´21 ´22

Virgo

GEO

LIGO

LISA

E.T.

Virgo+

LIGO+

Advanced Virgo

GEO HF

Advanced LIGO

DS PCP Construct. Commiss.

HanfordHanford

LivingstonLivingston

Launch Transfer data

Data

Now

1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Gen.

Time Chart



• E.T.: the long-term future project of ground-based gravitational wave astronomy in Europe.

• European GW community has world-leading role in planning. Similar studies in Japan.

• First technical design and associated costing expected in 2011, followed by a ‘Preparatory Phase’.

• A decision on funding for the construction of E.T. will earliest after first detections with enhanced LIGO/Virgo but is most likely after collecting about a year of data with advanced LIGO/Virgo in approximately 2014/15. Targeted start of E.T. construction ~ 2017.

• At low frequencies: LISA (LISA-Pathfinder 2010)



KM3NeT


Auger-Nord

CTA



Megaton



KM3NeT


Auger-Nord

CTA



Megaton

Important funding decisions in many countries taken 1.OECD document, decadal review/PASAG, role of CERN,... DM: ~10-8 pb by several experiments DBD: first results from GERDA-I LAGUNA: DS finished, converge on sites and technologies Cosmic rays:

First results from AMS Auger North: 1.5x more data from Auger South

HE gammas MAGIC-II results, hopefully HESS-2 operating CTA prototype telescopes being constructed

HE neutrinos 2 km³ years with IceCube Details of KM3NeT: converging to final decisions

Grav. Waves: Virgo+, Ligo+ delivering first data, advanced detectors being prepared



KM3NeT


Auger-Nord

CTA



Megaton

Documents

Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 1. Christian Spiering, DESY ASPERA-2 kickoff meeting Hamburg July 7, 2009