At the Crossroads Summit: Matt Ridley's presentation

8/11/2019 At the Crossroads Summit: Matt Ridley's presentation

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RationalRational OptimismOptimism::MattMatt RidleyRidley

Texas Public Policy FoundationTexas Public Policy Foundation

20142014


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Are we


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World Economic Growth


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World Economic Growth


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The fall of poverty


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But are we healthier,happier, safer, better

e , c everer, c eaner,kinder, freer, more

peaceful, more equal?


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Healthier


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Happier


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Safer

://..//1378.


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Better fed


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Cleverer


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Cleaner

(2011) D D


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Kinder

S. Pinker, The Better Angels of our Nature, 2011


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Freer


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More peaceful


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More equal

& (2010)


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How is thispossible?


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The collective brain

Internet traffic: the Opte Project. Licensed under Creative Commons


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Energy amplifies productivity


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Can itgo on?


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``We cannot absolutelyprove that those are inerror who say societyhas reached a turning

point, that we have seenour best days, but sosaid all who came before

apparent reason...On what principle is itthat with nothing but

improvement behind uswe are to expect nothingbut deterioration beforeus? Thomas Babington Macaulay, 1830


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Population growth rate is falling


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Arctic and Antarctic wildlife


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Were using less land to produce more food


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HANPP

C

D

B

://..//(A)


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Indoor air pollution: 1 in 13 deaths

.


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The changing mix of fuel


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Natural Gas


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0.04%

Carbon dioxide levels

0.03%


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Global temperatures up 0.35C in 35 years

://.4.

T h


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Temperature change

35 C 2013

W i b l tit d


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Warming by latitude

://.../2014/05/3.

Cli t h i l th t d


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Climate change is slower than expected

S t t


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Sea temperature

://./2013/02/25//

Why has Arctic sea ice retreated


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Why has Arctic sea ice retreatedbut Antarctic sea ice increased?

D C

Warmer 1000 years ago


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Warmer 1000 years ago

18

, C. .. C. 2008. , 19, 93100

The long view


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The long view


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The impact

Droughts not increasing


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Droughts not increasing


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No acceleration in glacier retreat


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No acceleration in glacier retreat

2005

No increase in cyclones


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No increase in cyclones

No decrease in winter snow


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No decrease in winter snow

No increase in intensity of rainfall


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No increase in intensity of rainfall

IPCC: no expected change in extreme weather


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IPCC: no expected change in extreme weather

. , 2012

No worsening of malaria


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1900

2007

No worsening of malaria

C

P. Gething et al Nature 2010


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Globalgreen ng

Change in greenery, 1981-2011


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Change in greenery, 1981 2011

://..//10.1002/.50563/

Our work was able to tease-out the CO2 fertilization effect by

using mathematical modeling together with satellite dataadjusted to take out the observed effects of other influencessuch as precipitation, air temperature, the amount of light, andland-use changes. R. Donohue, 2013

Global greening


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G oba g ee g

://../////1/1100%20

2.

CO2 fertilisation effect


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Is the cure

the disease?

Green energys death toll


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192,000

gy

.

A , 16,

2011

Renewistan


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To prevent CO2 emissionsrising, let alone cut them,

would require a new wind farmthe size of Germany every year.

The shale gas effect


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://..//2012/07/02/

21991/


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The richer weget, the more

well cut

emissions

More growth, less warming


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g g

8.5 :

://..//29664533780475/.#C11

16

3

50%

10

2

Disease and cure


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Matt RidleyMatt Ridley

TPPF, HoustonTPPF, Houston

@mattwridleywww.rationaloptimist.com

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At the Crossroads Summit: Matt Ridley's presentation