Atlantic Water temperature and climate

in the Barents Sea in 2000-2009

Vladimir Boitsov, Alexey Karsakov, Alexander Trofimov

Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (PINRO)Murmansk, Russia

ICES/NAFO Symposiumon the Variability of the North Atlantic and its Marine Ecosystems during 2000-2009

10-12 May 2011, Santander, Spain

Barents Sea 2

The main paths of Atlantic waters

> 1100 timessince 1900

3Barents Sea

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

1900-1909

1910-1919

1920-1929

1930-1939

1940-1949

1950-1959

1960-1969

1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

2000-2009

Te

mp

era

ture

, °С

Period (years)

below average

above average

Long-term average

Decadal mean temperaturein the 0-200 m layer in the Murman

Current

warmerAtlantic waters

4.7°Cthe highest since 1900

Annual mean temperature anomaliesin the 0-200 m layer in the Murman

Current

4Barents Sea

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Te

mp

era

ture

an

om

aly

, °C

Year

1.5 Standard deviation

0.5...1.2°Cabove average

+0.3°C(2003)

2000, 2004-2009anomalously high temperatures

2006 – historical maximum (1.2°С above average)

1.41.3

1.21.3

1.31.21.2 1.21.2

1.3 1.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Tem

per

atur

e an

om

aly,

°С

Month

2006

2007

2008

2009

5Barents Sea

Monthly mean temperature anomaliesin the 0-200 m layer in the Murman

Current– absolute maxima

V VI VII VIII IX X

Winter anomalies were higher than summer ones.

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Tem

per

atur

e an

omal

y, °

C

Period (years)

Decadal mean air temperature anomalies

around Bear Island

6Barents Sea

Bear Island

2.2-2.4°C above normal(2006 and 2007)

Winter anomalies were higher than summer ones.

7Barents Sea

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ice

cove

rag

e an

om

aly,

%

Year

Long-term average

Nonlinear trend

Ice coverage anomalies (May-July averaged) in the Barents sea in 1900-

2009

2000-2009 mean ice c. < 1990-1999 mean ice c. by 10%2006 and 2007 annual mean ice c. was 22-23% less-than-normal

8Barents Sea

Climate index for the Barents Sea

TAir-TAir TWater-TWater AreaIce-free-AreaσTAir

σTWater σAreaIce-free

Climate index = + +

TAir TWater AreaIce

Climate

TAir at Vardø and Kanin Nos coastal stationsTWater in the 0-200 m layer of the Murman CurrentAreaIce in May-July

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Clim

ate

ind

ex

Year

9Barents Sea

Cumulative curve of the climate indexfor the Barents Sea

1997-1999↓TA ↓TW

19881929

↑TWater + ↑AreaIce-free = ↑Climate index

2006

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Clim

ate

ind

ex

Year

Barents Sea

Cumulative curve of the climate indexfor the Barents Sea

10

Franz Josef Land - Novaya Zemlya section

Barents Sea 11

20072008PINROIMR

12Barents Sea

Temperature in the Franz Josef Land - Novaya Zemlya section in September

1991 1992

2007 2008

Surface andoutflowing waters

much warmer(2007-2008)

13

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2000

14

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2001

15

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2002

16

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2003

17

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2004

18

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2005

19

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2006

20

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2007

21

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2008

22

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

2009

23

Bottom temperature in August–September

Barents Sea

51<5-6%

4-531

>2°C0-2°C<0°C

24Barents Sea

Bottom temperature in August–September

Anomalies in 2007(the smallest area

covered by water <0°C)

Differences between 2007 values and

max values since 1951

The lower T in the 150-200 m layer of the Kola Section in winter, the larger bottom area covered by water <0°C in Aug-Sep.

94%35%

25

Conclusions

● In 2000-2009, air and water temperatures in the Barents Sea were higher-than-normal throughout the years , with extremely high positive anomalies in some years.

● The last decade was the warmest one since 1900.

● The warming processes in the Barents Sea peaked in 2006-2007. In 2008-2009 the climate index almost halved.

Barents Sea

● The decreasing trend in air and water temperatures in the Barents Sea is probably expected to continue into the nearest future, which will result in increased ice coverage.

Thank you for your time!