Climate induced changes on hydrology and water resources

managing river basins in southern and Eastern Europe

 A.Unal Sorman

METU, Faculty of EngineeringWater Resources Division

Ankara- Turkey

Objectives Changes in water resources

(time/area) of the Eastern and Mediterranean countries of Europe should be observed in short and medium time domain where water gets scared (unpredictable) due to change of climate and/or misuse of water sources by human interferences which effect inversly on water resources within the region.

Integrated basin management In order to achive the stated objectives

, the river basins located in this region should be managed in an integrated manner among the nations as well within nations by observing the meteorological and hydrological parameters in time and space domain in the region sharing them and analyzing the processed information with recent scientific techniques.

Climate change It is expected to effect significantly on

input and output elements in near future of the water budget of watersheds as a result of expected extreme events on rainfall amount may increse or decrease resulting draught and flood conditions in the area, finally creating some infrastructural damages, loss of life for high flows and agricutural drought by lowering groudwater table as a result of less runoff .

Side effects due to areal coverages This situation will also create

additional side effects for the vulnerable areas at upper part of the basins (hillslope) which are mountainous ( bare or forest/vegatation cover) to get less or more snow coverages.

Snowmelt Due to rasing of air temperature in early

months of spring season (Feb and march), snow is expected to melt earlier which needs to be controled to minimize the flooding risk and as well the amount of snowmelt should be predicted to maximize the reservoir operation systems to generate more hydropower energy with limited runoff storage, to supply drinking water effectively and to provide water for irrigable lands when it is needed in summer months.

Solutions by satellite tech’s Considering all these factors,

research is needed in coloborated way among the participating countries to combine the data stored information and effort in near real time base using also satellite techniques to analyze exisiting and predicted resources within the Mediterranean and eastern countries (share the information).

a. Snow Recognition (SNOBS1-b)b. Fractional Snow Cover

(SNOBS2-b)c. Snow Water Equivalent

(SNOBS3-b)

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Snow Products development on Mountainous area by Turkish H-SAF team (TSMS-METU)

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a-Snow Recognition

SN-OBS1b Sample for 27.12.2008

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Validation of SN-OBS1b

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For the first 3 months period of 2008 over:

Turkey Slovakia

Ankara-Turkey

Turkey

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Comparisons made for 78 climatic stations where 1736 measurements have been used.

3 monthsPOD = 99 %FAR = 9 %

Ankara-Turkey

Slovakia

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Comparisons made for 72 climatic stations where 1954 measurements have been used.

3 monthsPOD = 69.7 %FAR = 31 %

Ankara-Turkey

Merged Products (FMI & TSMS)

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b-Fractional Snow Cover

Merged Products (FMI & TSMS)

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c-Snow Water Equivalent

SNOW GRAIN SIZE ESTIMATION FOR STATIONS

AMSR-E Tb18.7 V at 12/03/2006 23:19 DESCENDING

Karasu Basin

Thanks to ContributorsH-SAF members in Turkey

ODTU (METU)AU (AU)

Governmental OrganizationsTSMS (DMI)SHW (DSI) EPR (EIEI)

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