AUTOMOTIVE Autonomous Driving: The Short Term Impact · 2017-01-30 · project’ Government US- Pittsburgh Uber Sweden- Gothenburg Volvo Germany – Autobahn BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz

© 2017 IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Autonomous Driving: The Short Term Impact

AUTOMOTIVE

Aaron Dale, Senior Analyst +44 1933 408 038

[email protected]

26 January 2017 | Frankfurt, Germany

© 2017 IHS Markit

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. Charles Darwin

2

2017 New Year’s Briefing | 26 January 2017

© 2017 IHS Markit 3


Agenda

• Where are we now?

• Enabling Technologies

• Component Pricing

• Market Dynamics

• 2017?

• Q&A



The Big Picture



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So where are we now?

6

2005 2015 2017 2025 2035

L4

L2

L3

L1

L0

Combined function automation

Limited self-driving automation

Autonomous mode with driver controls

L5 No driver controls

No automation

NH

TS

A +

IH

S L

4/

5

Single function automation




Enabling Technologies

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The autonomous ecosystem comes together …

8

Current expertise

New frontier


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Developments in autonomy to shape UI

9



2008-2012

2012-2016

2016-2020

2020-2024

Human-Centric Inputs

Display Applications

Display Technologies

Speech recognition

Gesture

recognition Driver

monitoring

Rearview e-Mirrors

Side view e-Mirrors

HVAC, passenger, door, etc.

Curved displays

AMOLED displays

Augmented reality HUD



0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Facial monitoring world fitment rate

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Source: IHS Markit

Regionally, Japan is forecast to see the highest fitment rates of facial monitoring, followed by

North America

Assessing drivers mental state,

cognitive load and attention levels will becoming increasingly

important.


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High performance solid-state LIDARs: a key to system cost reduction

12

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

MechanicalScanning

LIDAR

Basic FlashLIDAR

HighResolution

Flash LIDAR

Solid-statescanning

LIDAR

Typical cost

Typical cost




Wider Change

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Mobility manifesting

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• Automaker sub-brands become the home for new technologies

• BMW i

• Mercedes-Benz EQ

• VW ID concept vehicles

• Companies establish standalone mobility units

• Google Waymo

• GM Maven

• BMW ReachNow

• VW Moia

• Daimler car2go

• Geely / Volvo Lynk & Co.

Autonomous

Connected

Electric

Shared

A

C

E

S


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Testing and Pilot schemes

15

Location Initiated by

UK – Milton Keynes

Government

UK London ‘Gateway project’

Government

US- Pittsburgh

Uber

Sweden- Gothenburg

Volvo

Germany – Autobahn

BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz

•Dedicated autonomous driving lanes

•Road signals and signs

Adaptation of infrastructure

•Addressing safety concerns.

•How to interact with autonomous vehicles

Education of drivers




Market Dynamics

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Strategic partnerships

17

Mapping Companies

and Tier one suppliers

OEM’s

Ride hailing, Rental & Car

Sharing Companies

Tech Companies


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Recent strategic partnerships/acquisitions

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• Uber and Volvo

• HERE- expanded consortium of ownership

• Autoliv/Volvo- Zenuity

• Nvidia/ Multiple OEM’s

• Bosch/TomTom


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Regulation

Guidance will shape the future of automotive technology, regulatory decisions will affect how the sharing economy evolves

Regulatory activity is already influential, but it becomes one of the most important market forces for ADAS

NCAP

US NCAP adding 7+ new ADAS in 2018

Euro NCAP continues to move forward on new AEB features

Little-to-no activity

from other countries

Voluntary agreements

US commitment for

standard AEB by 2022

Will effectively make AEB standard

everywhere in a few years, with rare local

model exceptions

What is next?

Standards and guidance

ISO 26262 + ASIL

New automated

vehicle guidelines expected in US

Steady progress on cybersecurity and driver distraction

guidance in US

Sharing economy

Open question everywhere today

Even China allowed ride-hailing services

in legal grey zone

Regulation likely to be defined by the current market


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2017 Automotive Technology Foresight


ACES

OEMs acquiring new competencies, more supplier consolidation possible, achieving scale in data and services

Developments in UI technologies, design, or service models aim to

reinvent the automotive UX

Electronic Architectures

Sensor fusion ECUs and central ADAS domain controllers will to drive further advances in autonomy,

reduce cost and save weight

Mobility providers & start-ups push OEMs and suppliers to diversify products and business models

New Automotive UX

Disruptors Collaboration and M&A

Autonomy & AI

Sensor advances, artificial intelligence, innovative interiors and platform development towards public deployment

Creation of further sub brands and further development of standalone mobility units.

2017 Foresight



Thank you!

Aaron Dale Senior Analyst Automotive 3-5 Huxley Close Wellingborough, UK NN8 6AB +44 1933 408 038 [email protected]

Documents

AUTOMOTIVE Autonomous Driving: The Short Term Impact · 2017-01-30 · project’ Government US- Pittsburgh Uber Sweden- Gothenburg Volvo Germany – Autobahn BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz