Autos & Logistics - HDFC securities Logistics...Ashok Leyland 245 84 NEU 90 6.9 7.0 12.2 11.9 6.3 5.8 23.4 21.3 Bajaj Auto 806 2,786 BUY 3,090 161.1 176.8 17.3 15.8 11.7 10.6 20.4

Autos & Logistics

1QFY20E Results Preview

10 July 2019

Aditya Makharia [email protected] +91-22-6171 7316

Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-3021-2070

2

1QFY20E RESULTS PREVIEW

1QFY20E: A challenging quarter The persistent weakness in auto volumes in 1QFY20 was due to (1)

Moderation in economic activity in an election quarter (2) Ongoing tight liquidity conditions due to the NBFC issue (3) Late arrival of monsoons (4) A demanding base effect. The logistics company CONCOR also reported flattish volumes in 1QFY20.

Recommendation: The auto index underperformed the broader market due to the weak demand environment and the recent announcements in the budget to promote Electric vehicles (OEMs will be compelled to accelerate the launch of EVs). We have a SELL on Eicher Motors given the sharp slowdown in the lifestyle biking segment. We recommend reducing positions in Ashok Leyland (Neutral) in the event of a stock price rally and buying Container Corporation of India, which will benefit from the upcoming Dedicated Freight Corridor.

Over the quarter, the 2W and CV segment posted a volume decline of ~10% YoY (though the decline in M&HCV is sharper). PV volumes declined ~15% YoY.

The aggregate profits for the OEM’s under our coverage is expected to decline -17% YoY. We have lowered our FY20-21 EPS estimates / price targets across companies to factor in the weak quarter.

Company 4QFY19 % YoY % QoQ

Ashok Leyland 39,608 (6) (33)

- MHCV 26,719 (13) (38)

- LCV 12,889 12 (17)

Bajaj Auto 1,247,174 2 4

- 2W 1,082,627 5 8

- 3W 164,547 (16) (14)

Hero Motocorp 1,842,920 (13) 3

Maruti 402,594 (18) (12)

M&M 218,039 (9) (7)

- Auto 131,689 (6) (25)

- Tractors 86,350 (14) 42

Tata Motors* 131,879 (20) (27)

- PV 36,945 (30) (31)

- CV 94,934 (15) (25)

TVS 923,195 (1) 2

- 2W 883,670 (1) 2

- 3W 39,525 11 (5)

Eicher 196,920 (19) (9)

- 2W 183,589 (19) (6)

-CV 13,331 (18) (35)

CONCOR (in TEU’s) 935,271 978,930 926,923

Company Reco Company Reco

Ashok Leyland NEU Jamna Auto BUY

Bajaj Auto BUY NRB Bearings NEU

Eicher SELL RK Forgings BUY

Hero Motocorp BUY Subros BUY

Maruti Suzuki BUY CONCOR BUY

1QFY20 Volume Summary

Source: Company,HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: Company,HDFC Sec Inst Research *Tata motors- Domestic sales #Volumes

3


The auto index has underperformed the broader market due to the weak demand environment and the recent budget announcements to promote electric vehicles

Stock performance (%)

1M 3M 6M 1Y

Nifty (3) (1) 6 6

NSE AUTO (8) (12) (15) (32)

Ashok Leyland (8) (9) (11) (36)

Bajaj Auto (7) (5) 3 (8)

Eicher Motors (5) (9) (6) (31)

Exide Industries (5) (8) (23) (25)

Hero Motocorp (11) (7) (17) (32)

Jamna Auto (10) (16) (20) (44)

Lumax Auto (18) (25) (40) (26)

M&M (2) (5) (13) (32)

Maruti (15) (18) (21) (37)

NRB Bearings (9) (21) (24) (13)

RK Forgings 0 (11) (11) (31)

Subros (6) (18) (13) (18)

Suprajit Engineering (4) (14) (9) (21)

Swaraj Engines 0 1 (7) (27)

Tata Motors (6) (24) (15) (43)

TVS (10) (11) (21) (27)

Stock Performance

Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research



3 months stock performance

Index performance

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

NIFTY NIFTY AUTO

(25)

(15)

(5)

5

Lum

ax A

uto

Tata

Mot

ors

NR

B B

eari

ngs

Subr

os

Mar

uti

Jam

na

Au

to

Su

pra

jit …

NSE

AU

TO TVS

RK

Forg

ings

Eich

er M

oto

rs

Ash

ok L

eyla

nd

Exid

e In

dust

ries

He

ro M

oto

corp

M&

M

Baj

aj A

uto

Nif

ty

Swar

aj E

ngin

es

4


1QFY20: Commodity Prices Over the quarter, base metal prices have declined by ~7% QoQ. This will partially cushion margins amidst weak demand trends


Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research


30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

Jun-

09

Jun-

10

Jun-

11

Jun-

12

Jun-

13

Jun-

14

Jun-

15

Jun-

16

Jun-

17

Jun-

18

Jun-

19

Brent price ($/bbl)

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Jun

-09

Jun

-10

Jun

-11

Jun

-12

Jun

-13

Jun

-14

Jun

-15

Jun

-16

Jun

-17

Jun

-18

Jun

-19

Copper Price ($)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jun

-09

Jun

-10

Jun

-11

Jun

-12

Jun

-13

Jun

-14

Jun

-15

Jun

-16

Jun

-17

Jun

-18

Jun

-19

Aluminium Price ($)

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jun

-09

Jun

-10

Jun

-11

Jun

-12

Jun

-13

Jun

-14

Jun

-15

Jun

-16

Jun

-17

Jun

-18

Jun

-19

Lead Price ($)

5


Cross Currency Trends – a strengthening INR Over the quarter, the INR has strengthened vs. key currencies. It has appreciated by 3% against the Euro and 4% against the GBP.





68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

USD/INR

1.5

1.6

1.7

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

INR/JPY

76

80

84

88

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

EUR/INR

85

90

95

100

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

GBP/INR

6


1QFY20E: A challenging quarter

COMPANY 1QFY20

OUTLOOK WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES

Maruti Suzuki WEAK

We except revenues to decline by 16% YoY due to lower sales (-18% YoY)

EBITDA margin to contract by 330bps YoY to 11.6% due to the impact of operating deleverage

PAT decline by 31% YoY (-24% QoQ)

Update on transition to BSVI as MSIL has launched BSVI compliant models.

On ground demand trends Business plans for roll out of EVs / hybrids

Bajaj Auto AVG

We expect revenues to grow by 3% YoY, led by 2% increase in volumes.

We expect operating margins to contract by 140bps YoY (+20bp QoQ) to 15.9%, due to a weaker product mix (lower share of three wheelers)

We expect PAT to decline 2% YoY

Export demand outlook Domestic market share targets in the two

wheeler segment New developments / launches in the EV

space – particularly for 3 wheelers

Hero MotoCorp WEAK

We expect a decline in revenue of 11% YoY, due to 13% YoY drop in volumes.

We expect the margin to contract by 170bps YoY to 13.9% PAT to decline by 14% YoY

Response to the premium product launches Channel inventories Business plans for roll out of electric bikes

Ashok Leyland WEAK

We expect 6% YoY decline in revenues due to similar drop in volumes.

EBITDA margin expected at 10.6% (+20bps YoY, -50bps QoQ) PAT decline of 6%

CV demand outlook – pre buying trends Update on appointment of new CEO

Eicher Motors WEAK

We expect a revenue decline of 10% led by 19% decline in the volumes. Realizations will be higher due to price hikes taken through the year (introduction of ABS)

EBITDA margin of 27.3% (-450bps YoY, -10bps QoQ) PAT decline of 23% YoY (-19% QoQ)

Demand outlook – particularly as sales decline has been steep

Export markets potential post the launch of the 650 twins

7


1QFY20E: A challenging quarter

COMPANY 1QFY20

OUTLOOK WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES

Subros WEAK

Net sales to decline by 5% YoY - a decline in passenger vehicle sales will be partially offset by Subros’s expansion into new products / segments

EBITDA margin contraction by 40bps YoY (-30bps QoQ) to 10.3% PAT decline by 13% YoY

Subros diversification plans, particularly post the acquisition of Zamil

The companies medium term strategy to supply components for the EV segment

Jamna Auto WEAK

We expect sales to be weak (-10% YoY) due to the decline in CV industry sales

Margin to contract by 120bps YoY to 12.2% due to the above We expect the PAT to decline by 23% YoY (-8% QoQ)

Mix of conventional/parabolic springs for the quarter

Update on aftermarket sales

NRB Bearings WEAK

Weak industry sales will result in 9% YoY decline in revenue Margins are expected at 14.7% (-430bps YoY, +240bps QoQ) We expect PAT to decline by 18% YoY and +28% QoQ.

Demand outlook – particularly for the two wheeler segment

Companies expansion plans in the mobility segment (railways, aerospace, etc.)

Ramkrishna Forgings

WEAK

Higher realizations / improved export revenues to result in 10% YoY growth (+2% QoQ) in revenue.

EBITDA margin expected at 20%, (-100bps YoY) PAT decline of 6% YoY

Update on new export orders in the European market

Demand outlook for the M/HCV segment – both for India as well as US markets

Container Corporation

AVG

Volume growth to be flat at -1% YoY. Margins expected at 25.7% (+80bps YoY) PAT growth by 7% YoY to Rs 2.7bn

Industry growth outlook for FY20 Progress on the DFC and expected timelines

for commissioning of Phase I

8


1QFY20E: Financial Summary

Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research

COMPANIES NET SALES (Rs mn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs mn) Adj. EPS

1QFY20E QoQ (%) YoY (%) 1QFY20E QoQ (bps) YoY (bps) 1QFY20E QoQ (%) YoY (%) 1QFY20E 4QFY19 1QFY19

AUTO ANCILLARIES

Jamna Auto 5,060 (7) (10) 12.2 (52) (119) 308.4 (8) (23) 0.8 1 1

NRB Bearings 2,126 (0) (9) 14.7 243 (430) 149.5 28 (18) 1.5 2 3

Ramkrishna Forgings 4,530 2 10 20.0 (13) (105) 259.9 4 (6) 8.0 10 11

Subros 5,051 (3) (5) 10.3 (30) (41) 192.8 19 (13) 3.0 3 3

Suprajit Engineering 3,582 (17) (1) 14.8 6 (52) 300.6 (28) 4 2.1 3 4

Swaraj Engines 2,195 15 (6) 14.5 18 (111) 202.8 22 (12) 16.7 14 15

Aggregate 22,543 (4) (3) 14.2 10.0 (99.6) 1,414 (2) (12)

COMPANY Volume (in units '000) NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS

1QFY20E QoQ

(%) YoY (%)

1QFY20E QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

1QFY20E QoQ (bps)

YoY (bps)

1QFY20E QoQ (%)

YoY (%)

1QFY20E 4QFY19 1QFY19

AUTOS

Ashok Leyland 40 (33) (6) 59.1 (33) (6) 10.6 (54) 24 3.6 (45) (6) 1.2 2.2 1.3

Bajaj Auto 1,247 4 2 76.2 3 3 15.9 18 (137) 11.0 3 (2) 37.9 45.1 38.5

Eicher 197 (9) (19) 22.8 (9) (10) 27.3 (9) (448) 4.4 (19) (23) 163.1 201.0 212.6

Hero Motocorp 1,843 3 (13) 78.6 (0) (11) 13.9 34 (173) 7.8 7 (14) 39.0 36.6 45.5

Maruti Suzuki 403 (12) (18) 188.0 (12) (16) 11.6 105 (332) 13.6 (24) (31) 44.9 59.5 65.4

Aggregate 424.7 (12) (11) 13.5 68 (222) 40.4 (16) (19)

LOGISTICS

CONCOR 927* (5) (1) 16.2 (12) 3 25.7 23 82 2.7 (23) 7 4.4 (23.3) 7.0

* Volume in TEUs

9


Peer Set Comparison

Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research *NR= Not Rated

Mcap

(Rs bn)

CMP

(Rs/sh) Reco TP

Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)

FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

AUTOS

Ashok Leyland 245 84 NEU 90 6.9 7.0 12.2 11.9 6.3 5.8 23.4 21.3

Bajaj Auto 806 2,786 BUY 3,090 161.1 176.8 17.3 15.8 11.7 10.6 20.4 20.3

Eicher 519 19,039 SELL 17,150 811.6 835.3 23.5 22.8 14.7 13.0 22.7 19.6

Hero Motocorp 488 2,444 BUY 2,875 168.0 179.8 14.5 13.6 8.0 7.2 23.7 22.8

Maruti Suzuki 1,796 5,945 BUY 6,780 267.5 308.2 22.2 19.3 11.3 9.3 16.3 16.7

AUTO ANCS

Jamna Auto 20 50 BUY 65 3.8 4.0 13.0 12.3 7.1 6.6 27.3 24.4

NRB Bearings 15 153 NEU 165 9.5 9.7 16.1 15.8 8.8 8.1 18.5 16.7

Ramkrishna Forgings 15 463 BUY 550 36.4 39.1 12.7 11.8 5.6 5.0 12.8 12.2

Subros 15 233 BUY 280 13.8 16.3 16.9 14.3 6.5 5.6 12.5 13.2

Suprajit Engineering 28 202 NR 185 9.6 11.0 21.0 18.5 30.1 26.4 16.2 16.0

Swaraj Engines 17 1,395 NR 1,380 68.7 81.2 20.3 17.2 11.7 9.7 33.3 34.9

LOGISTICS

Container Corporation 30 549 BUY 670 25.6 31.1 21.4 17.6 17.3 13.4 14.5 16.5

10


Change in estimates

Particulars (Rs mn) New Old % change

FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

Revenue 308,040 328,745 329,077 350,893 (6) (6)

EBITDA 32,960 34,518 35,211 36,844 (6) (6)

EBITDA margin (%) 10.7 10.5 10.7 10.5 0 bps 0 bps

APAT 20,111 20,548 21,776 22,227 (8) (8)

Adj. EPS 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.6 (7) (8)

Ashok Leyland



Revenue 106,181 116,065 114,326 125,779 (7) (8)

EBITDA 28,819 31,151 31,289 34,169 (8) (9)

EBITDA margin (%) 27.1 26.8 27.4 27.2 -23 bps -33 bps

APAT 22,123 22,771 24,002 25,164 (8) (10)

Adj. EPS 811.6 835.3 880.5 923.1 (8) (10)

Eicher Motors



Revenue 319,506 350,075 334,272 366,111 (4) (4)

EBITDA 50,384 54,710 53,711 59,363 (6) (8)


APAT 46,630 51,147 48,977 55,119 (5) (7)

Adj. EPS 161.1 176.8 169.3 190.5 (5) (7)

Bajaj Auto

11




Revenue 350,351 377,360 370,168 398,856 (5) (5)

EBITDA 48,556 51,935 52,043 55,690 (7) (7)


APAT 33,556 35,914 35,927 38,456 (7) (7)

Adj. EPS 168.0 179.8 179.9 192.6 (7) (7)

Hero Motocorp

Maruti Suzuki



Revenue 901,606 1,006,049 950,159 1,060,270 (5) (5) EBITDA 120,815 137,829 130,172 148,438 (7) (7) EBITDA margin (%) 13.4 13.7 13.7 14.0 -30 bps -30 bps APAT 80,786 93,083 87,639 101,011 (8) (8) Adj. EPS 267.5 308.2 290.2 334.5 (8) (8)



Revenue 22,255 24,432 23,161 25,429 (4) (4)

EBITDA 2,337 2,590 2,478 2,772 (6) (7)


APAT 903 1,063 998 1,188 (10) (11)

Adj. EPS 13.8 16.3 15.3 18.2 (10) (11)

Subros

Change in estimates

12



FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Revenue 19,333 20,895 20,414 22,263 (5) (6) EBITDA 3,983 4,242 4,205 4,519 (5) (6) EBITDA margin (%) 20.6 20.3 20.6 20.3 0 bps 0 bps APAT 1,187 1,275 1,337 1,442 (11) (12) Adj. EPS 36.4 39.1 41.0 44.2 (11) (12)

Ramkrishna Forgings



Revenue 22,961 24,680 23,791 25,778 (4) (4)

EBITDA 2,902 3,071 3,215 3,485 (10) (12)


APAT 1,520 1,601 1,860 2,151 (18) (26)

Adj. EPS 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.4 (18) (26)

Jamna Auto


FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Revenue 10,155 10,734 10,756.0 11,842.0 (6) (9)

EBITDA 1,751 1,841 2,038.0 2,185.0 (14) (16)


APAT 920 942 1,175.0 1,254.0 (22) (25)

Adj. EPS 9.5 9.7 12.1 12.9 (22) (25)

NRB Bearings

Change in estimates

13


Rating Definitions

BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-) 10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period

SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-) 10% returns over the next 12 month period

Disclosure: We Aditya Makharia, CA & Mansi Lall, MBA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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mailto:[email protected]



14


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Documents

Autos & Logistics - HDFC securities Logistics...Ashok Leyland 245 84 NEU 90 6.9 7.0 12.2 11.9 6.3 5.8 23.4 21.3 Bajaj Auto 806 2,786 BUY 3,090 161.1 176.8 17.3 15.8 11.7 10.6 20.4