AWRA Community ModelDr Amgad Elmahdi

Head of Water Resources Section Bureau of Meteorology

Presentation Outline

• What is AWRA modelling system?• Current level of Use and Adoption• AWRA community Reference group• AWRA community model framework• Discussion

The Bureau's Water Information

DECADES DAYS DAYSWEEKS WEEKSYEARS YEARS DECADES

PAST FUTUREPRESENT

Perspective ForesightSituational awareness

Flood forecasting andshort-term flow forecasting

Seasonal streamflowforecasting

Real-time data supply

Assessments, accounts, Thematic and Data Products

Long term trends

AWRA-Water Balance Framework

Assessing water resources and accounting for their availability and use

• national water balance modelling system that:

• quantifies retrospective water storage and water flux terms and their respective uncertainties,

• from observation and modelled data, using state-of-the-art science and technology; and

• provides seamless water balance information and data.

AWRA Modelling SystemObjective:

• Provide seamless water balance information and data using observations where available, and

modelling otherwise

• Provide the water and agricultural sectors with reliable, timely and consistent information on water

availability for the past, present and future at local, regional and continental scales.

Outcomes:

• Consistent, accurate and robust continental

and regional scale modelling.

Others

What AWRA Modelling System?

Over 55 Journal papersOver 50 conference papers Over 100000 google search Over 5000 in google scholarMedia articles

Runoff

Actual evapotranspiration

Rainfall

Model analysisInputs Outputs

Soil moisture

Deep drainage

Solar radiation

Operational continental landscape water balance modelAWRA-L: national, daily time-step, 5 km resolution

Operational website with outputs from 1911 until yesterday: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape

Continental Physical Based Gridded AWRA-L model –calibrated against streamflow, actual

Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture

AWRA-River Model

Inflow from one or multiple u/s reaches (observed/simulated)

Downstream flow (simulated: Main stem)

Downstream flow (Qa)(simulated: Anabranch(es))

Ungauged local runoff (Qr)(AWRA-L)

Storage contribution (Qs) Diversions (Qd, Qu, Qsd)(irrigation, urban, stock & domestic)Return flow (Qirr)

(irrigation)

Reach rainfall (Qp) Reach evaporation (Qe)

Overbank flow (Qfp)Return flow (Qfpr)(floodplain) Recharge to groundwater (Qgw)

NodeReach

Qu/s

(Qu/s)rout

• Runs for river basins around capital cities and the Murray Darling Basin on a node-link network

• Runs for the period 1970 to 2016 at daily resolution (Melb, SEQ and MDBA)

Achievements: AWRA L Operational Run time- BureauImplementation timeModel components

AWRA V1 AWRA V1.5 AWRA V2 AWRA V3

•AWRA-L•Workflow•Provenance

•AWRA-L•Calibrated•Workflow•Provenance

•AWRA-L•AWRA-R (190 reaches)•workflow•Provenance

•AWRA-L•AWRA-G•AWRA-R (562 reaches)•DA•Workflow•Calibration (lumped)•Benchmarking•Source Code

27

23 2111 8

AWRAV3.5

Day

s/ c

ompo

nent

s/N

o NWA11AWRA10

NWA12AWRA12

NWA10 NWA13

AWRA-MS Improvement/Development

•AWRA-LG•AWRA-R (574 reaches)•DA•Workflow (FEWS-L,LG,LGR,LR,R•Calibration (lumped+ grided on HWB)•Benchmarking•Source Code Access and manage GIT•Jenkins Integrated testing

NWA14

AWRAV4.5-V5

>24 hr

NWA15WIA 14

Run time-WIRADA

40

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape

Australian Landscape Water Balance web application

• A unique service!

• Updated daily

• See all variables at daily, monthly or annual time slices

• Download the grids at a resolution of 5km x 5km

• Past 10 years data available to all

• Registered users access >100 years and tailored products

Current Use and Adoptions of AWRA Landscape Model

Applications – Bureau of Meteorology

AWRA Modelling

System

Bureau DataRegulations

Climate

External DataSatellites

parameters

Outputs

Assessment

Accounting

Continental &

Regional

Sub-annualproducts•AWRA online•NCWB•Gridded•RWI•Drought

StreamflowRun-offEvapotranspiration Soil moisturelandscape water yield

LandscapeRegulated riverIrrigation areaFloodplain areaGroundwater

• Agriculture, environment and infrastructure professionals working in Commonwealth government water and agriculture agencies (ABARES, MDBA)

• Agriculture, environment and infrastructure, professionals working in state government water and agriculture agencies (NSW DPI, DEDJTR (VIC DPI), VIC DELWP, WaterNSW, QLD DEWS, SeqWater, WA Dept. of Ag. and Food, TAS DPIPWE, SA DEWNR, QLD FES, WA DPAW)

• Water and Environment Consulting companies (DHI, GHD)

• Industry professionals (Water utilities)

• Water Corporations (Melbourne Water, Sydney Water, SA Water)

• Research and University Sector (CSIRO, Uni. of Melbourne, Monash Uni., UNSW, ANU, USQ and Sydney Uni.)

External Users of the AWRA-L Modelled Data

Web Statistics of AWRA-L Modelled Data

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Mon

thly

Tot

al

Unique Page Views 10,061 (Dec 2015-Oct 2016)

Average Time Spent: 04.41 minutes

AWRA Community Model

AWRA-L Community ModelCurrent Application:

– Water Resources Assessment and Planning community– Agriculture and Natural Resources Management community– Flood Modelling community– Groundwater community

Objective:Release of the AWRA –L code base as a community model to provide the best means to engage with community and experts in each discipline in the process of applying and enhancing of AWRA-L .

AWRA-L Simulation

AWRA-L Calibration

AWRA-L Benchmarking Visualisation

Motivation

• Promoting the Bureau’s landscape hydrology modelling approach: Consistency

and adoption

• Providing access to the Australian hydrology community : Service

• Gain model improvements from the community: Contributions

• More collaboration with the Bureau: Competent Users

• Increase the acceptance and application of the model: Credibility

AWRA Community ModelPotential users’ categories;

– Data user, who accessing the model outputs through the Bureau's website

– Case study user, Who work with the Bureau to evaluate his case using 100 years of data

– Applying users, who would primarily be interested in applying the current model to a region of interest using localised data where available, and

– Contributor Users, who will extend the capabilities of the model with new research and coding (modify the system with new capabilities).

ACCESS for AWRA Community Modelling System

Core Team(Bureau)

Community Reference Group

Researchers and Developers

End Users(Agencies, Consultants, etc)

Rules and Governance SupportQAAccess User

Mechanism Group

Contributor License Agreement

License Agreement

Git, Read/Write

Git, Read OnlySubmit patches

NCI,PyPISuggest improvements

Automated Testing

Web-based Issue

Tracking System

Wiki,email lists,

Online forum

Supporting Technical Documentations

How to Access AWRA Code

1. Initial download AWRA-L model source code from GitHub repository

2. Download and Agree to AWRAMS license document (modified BSD-Berkeley Software Distribution) including CLA agreement

3. Write one pager brief about the potential use of AWRA-L model

4. Send signed AWRA license agreements to the Bureau by email (awracms@bom.gov.au)

5. Bureau will issue a User with a user name and password for access to the calibration and benchmarking datasets via ftp

6. Regular technical support

License Agreement Highlights• Modified BSD License and Contributor Licence Agreement (“CLA”) only allows use of AWRA-L

model for research and project work

• Redistribution and use of any part of the AWRAMS Material for commercial purposes must not occur without prior written permission from the Bureau ( awracms@bom.gov.au).

• You will make any and all of Your modifications to the AWRAMS Material (including modifications to code, data or documentation) available to the Bureau/Community for possible use by it in any way

• You will complete and sign and return to the Bureau (awracms@bom.gov.au) the Contributor Licence Agreement (“CLA”) which accompanies these licence terms in relation to any and all of Your modifications to the AWRAMS Material referred to above.

Incorporating Changes in Community Model

Issue Tracking System

Version Control System (git)Source code and documentation

Core Repository

User’s “Fork”

Proposed Change

Automated Test System

Researcher / Developer

Core Developer / Scientist

Comment on Proposed Change

15

4

2

69

7

8

3

• Contributors would need to demonstrate that the modifications meet agreed quality criteria, both in terms of model algorithms (if any) and IT implementation.

• Judgement Criteria against:– Level and depth of automated unit tests, which provide low level testing of

individual software functions– Maintenance or improvement of model benchmarking results, based on various

calibration metrics related to streamflow, soil moisture and ET– Code complexity of the changes, including whether the code introduces

unnecessary complexity that will become a maintenance burden– System performance, including whether the changes slow the system down

noticeably and whether any functional or benchmarking improvements warrant such an impact at national scale

Incorporating Changes in Community ModelAgreed Quality Criteria

Benchmarking: Demonstrate performance against AWRA-L v5 Calibration and EvaluationUnimpaired catchment testing

– Streamflow – 295 cal/291 valcatchments

– Actual Evapotranspiration [Satellite - CMRS, SLS]

– Soil moisture [Satellite - AMSR-E, ASCAT]

Point testing– Actual Evapotranspiration –

OzFlux towers (DINGO processing)– Soil moisture – OzNet, SASMAS– Recharge data

OzNet Site locations

Mon

thly

cor

rela

tion

[-]

Saturated hydraulic conductivity [mm/day]

AWRA Community Model Reference Group:

Steer research needs to the AWRA Community Model

Three Representative Groups – 16 Members

– Scientific and research– Commonwealth and states users– Owner and main developers (including CSIRO)

• Chaired by the Bureau • Reference group will meet twice a year (nominally April/May and Oct/Nov).• Minimum quorum for the Reference Group meeting is 10 external

members (out of 16)• Establish AWRA Technical Steering Committee Working Group ???

AWRA Community Model Reference Group: ToR

• Provide technical and strategic advice on the developing priorities of AWRA Community Model

• Review proposed changes to the model from the community and provide recommendation to the Bureau ( Technical Committee)

• Support and promote the uptake of the AWRA Community Model in government jurisdictions, the research community and internationally

• Facilitate two-way communication in the field of surface water and landscape modelling between stakeholders and the Bureau

Steer research needs to the AWRA Community Model

AWRA-L Community Summary

• Improvements made to be published in technical reports and peer reviewed

journal papers

• Improvements will be judged based on agreed quality criteria before accepting

in the main code base of AWRA Community model

• Code governance will be managed through AWRA Community model Reference

Group, chaired by the Bureau

• Support for the Community model via dedicated email, wiki, training and FAQ

AWRA modelling system: Limitations and Future Plans

Key Limitations

– 5 km grid large than typical paddock– Impervious, lakes and irrigation – No crop representation ( 2 vegetation

types)– One way feedback(semi coupled)– GW representation (Sw-GW

interactions)

UrbanisationVariability and extremes

IrrigationWater Bodies

Future Research

– Impervious, irrigation and water bodies– Downscaling to 1 Km– Regional Calibration– AWRA-L based recharge estimates – Dynamic model for estimation of volume of water

stored in on-farm dams – Scenario modelling analysis and future water

availability projections – High Spatial Resolution Satellite data– Forecasting (SM and ET) and data assimilation– Fully coupled – Uncertainty analysis

Innovation & Technology

New HRU of Irrigated Areas in Murrumbidgee Catchment

New HRU of Water Areas in Murrumbidgee Catchment

Summary and Way Forward

• The Bureau continue using AWRA-L modelled data outputs for all reporting in waterproducts as well as in national climate and water briefings since Sep 2015.

• The Bureau released daily results of the model outputs in a new operational web servicefrom December 2015.

• The Bureau is actively working with agricultural and water stakeholders to promoteawareness and use of the modelled outputs, with positive feedback and some adoptionreceived to date.

• The Bureau is releasing AWRA-L code as a community model

• The Bureau will continue enhancing the model through future developments by workingclosely with the community

Thank you

For AWRA Modelling System Queries

AWRAMS@bom.gov.au