Bagyong Yolandaat ang Project NOAHOn Earthquakes and Typhoons: A Scientific Discussion

BA Racoma

ClimateX, DOST Project NOAH

19 November 2013

YOLANDA TIMELINE

Yolanda Timeline

• November 2, 2013

• A low pressure area was spotted east of Pohnpei, Micronesia

• November 4, 2013

• As it travels west it intensifies into a tropical storm and was named Haiyan

• November 5, 2013

• JMA (Japan) and JTWC (USA) identified Haiyanas a typhoon

Yolanda Timeline

• November 6, 2013

• PAGASA releases first forecast tracks and names the storm Yolanda.

• Signal #1: Eastern Visayas and parts of Mindanao

Figure 1. Initial storm track by PAGASA

Yolanda Timeline

• November 7, 2013. 11AM update• PAGASA: Forecast Position: Typhoon “YOLANDA”

is expected to make landfall over Guiuan, Eastern Samar (Nov 8, 2013, 9-10 AM).

Figure 2. November 7 storm track by PAGASA

Yolanda Timeline

• November 7, 2013. 5PM update• PAGASA: TYPHOON “YOLANDA HAS ACCELERATED

SLIGHTLY WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO THREATENS EASTERN VISAYAS.

• Up to Signal #4 was raised in various regions in Visayas and Mindanao

• Warnings of flash floods, landslides and storm surges.

• PAGASA: Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #4, #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7-meter wave height.

Yolanda Timeline

Figure 3. Storm warning signal map by Rappler

Yolanda Timeline

• November 8, 2013. 2AM update

• PAGASA: Typhoon “YOLANDA” is expected to make landfall this morning (5 am) over Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

Figure 4. November 8, 2013 storm track by PAGASA

Yolanda Timeline

• November 8, 2013

• 4:00 AM: Landfall in Guiuan, Samar

• 7:00 AM: Landfall in Tolosa, Leyte

• Consecutive landfalls in Daanbantayan, BantayanIsland, Conception, Busuanga Island

Yolanda Timeline

• November 9, 2013

• PAGASA: Yolanda exits PAR

Figure 5. November 9 PAGASA storm track for YOLANDA

Yolanda Timeline

Figure 6. YOLANDA storm track, Wikimedia Commons

November 2

November 5

November 4

November 6

November 8November 9

DOST PROJECT NOAH

DOST Project NOAHIn response to President Aquino’s instructions to put in

place a responsive program for:

1) flood mitigation, specifically targeting a 6 hour flood early warning system for communities along 18 major river systems;

2) enhancement of geohazard maps and; 3) enhancement of storm surge vulnerability maps

the DOST is presenting the Nationwide Operational Asessment of Hazards

DOST Project NOAH

• Maps

• High resolution topography via LiDAR

• Flood susceptibility

• Land slide susceptibility

• Storm surge susceptibility

• Sensors

• Satellite

• RADAR

• Automated Weather Sensors

• Automated Water Level Sensors

• Forecasts

• 4 hour rainfall

• 4 day rainfall

• Storm track

• Information Education Campaigns for LGUs

• Public website

Satellite(5 days before landfall)

1

RADAR(24 hrs before landfall)

2

Auto. Rain Gauges(6-9 hours before flooding)

3

Water Level Sensors(3-6 hours before flooding)

4

Figure 7. NOAH data flow

PROJECT NOAH AND YOLANDA

Project NOAH and Yolanda

November 6(Wednesday)Uploaded on the Project NOAH Blog:

• Map and list of municipalities expected to be affected by 40-60mm 3-hour accumulated rainfall

• Map and list of municipalities expected to be affected by 60-100mm 3-hour accumulated rainfall

Figure 8. List of municipalities expected to be affected by rain

Project NOAH and Yolanda

November 6(Wednesday)

Initial simulation of storm surge forecast was uploaded to http://noah.dost.gov.ph

Figure 9. Storm surge map as tweeted by Dr Mahar Lagmay

Project NOAH and Yolanda

Figure 10. November 6 to 9 2013 Storm surge simulation

Project NOAH and Yolanda

Figure 11. November 6, 2013. PAGASA forecast track reflected on Project NOAH website asYolanda enters PAR

Project NOAH and Yolanda

November 6(Wednesday)

Uploaded on the Project NOAH Blog:

• Map and list of barangays with alluvial fans that can lead to debris flow

Figure 12. Landslide and debris flow susceptibility map along Yolanda’s path

Project NOAH and Yolanda

November 7 (Thursday)

• The official list of Typhoon Yolanda highest predicted storm surge and tide was forwarded to DILG, NDRRMC

• Tacloban, Leyte placed third on the list – 4.5m predicted height

• Storm surge warning was given by President Aquino in his televised public address Thursday evening

Project NOAH and Yolanda

Figure 13. November 8, 2013. Recorded rainfall throughout Philippines

Project NOAH and Yolanda

Figure 14. Yolanda Doppler Radar image as it traversesVisayas

Project NOAH and Yolanda

• Lahat po ng impormasyon na nakaalap ng Project NOAH ay ipinadala sa mga kinauukulang ahensya

• DILG, NDRRMC

• Media

• Lahat din po ng ito ay inanunsyo ni President Aquino sa kanyang public address noong Nobyembre 7, 2013 ng gabi.

STORM SURGE

http://www.gov.ph/crisis-response/mga-paalala-ukol-sa-storm-surge/

Ano ang Storm Surge?

• Ang storm surge o “daluyong ng bagyo” ay hindi pangkaraniwang pagtaas ng tubig sa dalampasigan habang papalapit ang bagyo sa baybayin

Figure 15. Infographic ng Storm Surge at bagyo

Ano ang epekto ng Storm Surge?• Ang storm surge ay nagdudulot ng malawakang pagbaha na

maaaring umabot ng ilang kilometro mula sa baybaying dagat, depende sa hugis at taas ng alon na ito

• Kasabay ng malakas na pag-alon at malakas na hangin, ang storm surge ay maaaring makapinsala at tangayin ang anumang bagay na dadaanan nito

Figure 16. Posibleng pinsala ng storm surge

Storm Surge

Eyewitness footage of Typhoon Haiyan washing house awayhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS0gv4Xbw7w

Ano ang pwede gawin tuwing may banta ng Storm Surge?

Ano ang pwede gawin tuwing may banta ng Storm Surge?

CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions

• With the available data given by UK Met, JMA, PAGASA and published by Project NOAH, we were able to provide a list and a map of high risk areas.

• All of these were published through different outlets

Bagyong Yolandaat ang Project NOAHOn Earthquakes and Typhoons: A Scientific Discussion

BA Racoma

ClimateX, DOST Project NOAH

19 November 2013