Bao Cao Cua WB Tai Hoi Nghi Kinh Te VN Ngay 8-6-2011

7/21/2019 Bao Cao Cua WB Tai Hoi Nghi Kinh Te VN Ngay 8-6-2011

1/39

TAKING STOCK

An Update on Vietnams

Recent Economic Developments

PREPARED BY THE WORLD BANKFor the Annual Consultative Group Meeting for Vietnam

Ha Tinh, June 8-9, 2011


2/39

This report has been prepared by Deepak Mishra and Viet Tuan Dinh. It has reei!edo""ents and inputs #ro" Mette $rost %erte&sen, %en %in'ha", (a"eer )oya&, I!ai&o I*!orski,Va&erie +o*e&, +eiko +ubota and Viet uo Trieu. It has been prepared under the o!era&& 'uidane o#Vitoria +aka. The ad"inistrati!e assistane has been pro!ided by huon' /an 'uyen.


3/39

1

VIETNAM - TAKING STOCK June 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

34TIV (4MM567 ...2-

I. 63T )/:%5/ 5D 6)I:5/ DV/:MT( 5D :4T/::+ ;-85. )&oba& 6eo!ery< (teady but 4ne!en%. 6e'iona& 3onte=t< Vietna">s =eptions to the 6e'iona& or"

II. 63T 3::MI3 DV/:MT( ...8-225. 3y&ia& 6eo!ery a"idst a (trutura& (&odon%. %oo"in' Internationa& Trade3. =terna& %a&ane< essi"is" at Ho"e but :pti"is" 5broadD. Into&erab&e In#&ation

. 5 Di'ression< Measurin' the (e!erity o# Maroeono"i Instabi&ity$. $isa& and Debt (ituation). De!e&op"ents in the %ankin' (etor

III. 63T :/I37 DV/:MT( ..2-2?5. @e&& %e'un, %ut :n&y Ha Done

IV. :4T/::+ $:6 2011 5D %7:D 2A-28

Annex

(TIM5TI) VIT5M ID :$ M536:3::MI3 (T5%I/IT7 BVIM(C ..29-0


4/39

1


EXECUTIVESUMMARY

i. In the last few years, Vietnams macroeconomic situation has

followe a !reicta"le !attern. When faced with ete!na" #h$c%# the

auth$!itie# ha&e $'ted t$ '!$tect the c$unt!()# !a'id *!$wth !ate+ e&en if it,eant t$"e!atin* hi*he! "e&e"# $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it(. Thi# ha# ,eant

,$de#t *!$wth #"$wd$wn# and f!euent e'i#$de# $f $&e!heatin*. S$ when

the ec$n$,( #ta!ted t$ $&e!heat in "ate 2010 f$""$win* the de"a(ed

withd!awa" $f the /#ca" and ,$neta!( #ti,u"u# 'ut in '"ace in 200+ few

e'ected a dete!,ined !e#'$n#e f!$, the *$&e!n,ent t$ #te, the en#uin*

,ac!$ec$n$,ic &$"ati"it(.

ii. The current e!isoe of macroeconomic insta"ility has "een as

se#ere as the !re#ious o#erheatin$ e!isoe of mi%&''() We

c$n#t!ucted a #u,,a!( ,ea#u!e $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( Vietna,Inde $f Mac!$ec$n$,ic Stai"it( VIMS3 a#ed $n the ,$&e,ent $f f$u!

&a!ia"e#+ na,e"( n$,ina" echan*e !ate+ inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e#+ in4ati$n

!ate and n$,ina" inte!e#t !ate. Ou! ,ea#u!e #h$w# that the de*!ee $f

,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( du!in* the cu!!ent e'i#$de did c$,e uite c"$#e

t$ ,id-2005+ ut ha# n$t #u!'a##ed it (et. 6ut un"i%e 2005+ when the "e&e"

$f in#tai"it( inc!ea#ed #ha!'"( and fe"" i,,ediate"(+ in#tai"it( ha# 'e!#i#ted

$&e! a "$n*e! 'e!i$d $f ti,e du!in* the cu!!ent e'i#$de f!$, N$&e,e!

2010 t$ 7e!ua!( 2011 e'$#in* Vietna,)# ec$n$,( t$ a '!$"$n*ed 'e!i$d

$f ne!&$u#ne## and unce!taint(.

iii. The $o#ernment has succeee in restorin$ si$ni*cant le#el of

macroeconomic sta"ility in the !ast few months) 7$""$win* the

#ucce##fu" c$,'"eti$n $f the 8Ith 9a!t( C$n*!e## in Janua!( and the

ce"e!ati$n $f the :una! New ;ea! in ea!"(-7e!ua!(+ the auth$!itie# ,$&ed

#wift"( t$ add!e## the ,ac!$ec$n$,ic '!$"e,# facin* the c$unt!(. The

d$n* wa# de&a"ued ( .< 'e!cent a*ain#t the =S d$""a! $n 7e!ua!( 11+

2011+ and >e#$"uti$n 11 wa# a''!$&ed $n 7e!ua!( 2?+ 2011. >e#$"uti$n 11

c$ntain# a wide !an*e $f $"d+ ,utua""( !einf$!cin* and c$n#i#tent ,$neta!(

and /#ca" '$"ic( ta!*et# and c$,,it# the *$&e!n,ent t$ unde!ta%e #e&e!a"#t!uctu!a" ,ea#u!e# inc"udin* !ef$!, $f the #tate-$wned ente!'!i#e#

SOE#3+ i,'!$&in* c$,,unicati$n with the ,a!%et and '!$tectin* the '$$!

f!$, futu!e e'i#$de# $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it(.

i&. E+orts to sta"ilie the economy, while well "e$un, are only half

one) @e#'ite initia" #%e'tici#,+ the ,ea#u!e# ad$'ted unde! the


5/39

1


>e#$"uti$n 11 ha&e #ta!ted t$ #h$w !e#u"t# t$wa!d# !e*ainin* Vietna,)#

,ac!$ec$n$,ic #tai"it(. The 'a!a""e" ,a!%et ha# di#a''ea!ed and f$! the

/!#t ti,e in th!ee (ea!#+ the d$n* i# t!adin* in inte!an% ,a!%et e"$w the

$icia" cent!a" !ate. The State 6an% $f Vietna, S6V3 ha# #ta!ted t$

'u!cha#e d$""a!# in the inte!-an% ,a!%et+ the!e( ui"din* u' ,uch needed

inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e#. Vietna,)# #$&e!ei*n $nd #'!ead# ha&e #teadi"(

dec"ined in the 'a#t few ,$nth#. 6ut the!e a!e '"ent( $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic

!i#%# in the #(#te, that can ea#i"( !e&e!#e the ha!d-ea!ned *ain# $f the 'a#t

th!ee ,$nth#.

&. Therefore, initial success notwithstanin$, the authorities nee

to remain #i$ilant a$ainst !remature withrawal of sta"iliation

measures. The i,'"e,entati$n $f >e#$"uti$n 11 ha# n$t *$ne unif$!,"(

we""B e$!t# t$ !ein in in&e#t,ent ud*et ha&e een "e## f$!thc$,in*+

!ef$!,# $f the #tate-$wned ente!'!i#e# ha&e n$t een fu""( #'e""ed $ut and,ea#u!e# ai,ed at ette! c$,,unicati$n with the ,a!%et ha&e een #"$w

and he#itant. With *!$wth e'ected t$ #"$w d$wn in the #ec$nd and thi!d

ua!te!# $f 2011+ the!e c$u"d e de,and# f!$, &a!i$u# ua!te!# t$ !e"a

,$neta!( and /#ca" '$"icie# and t$ *$ #"$w $n #t!uctu!a" !ef$!,#.

Ca'itu"atin* t$ #uch de,and# c$u"d '!$&e c$#t"( f$! the ec$n$,(. In#tead+

the auth$!itie# ha&e an $''$!tunit( t$ !eui"d Vietna,)# c!edii"it( (

#teadfa#t"( and eecti&e"( i,'"e,entin* >e#$"uti$n 11 unti" the f$""$win*

th!ee ,i"e#t$ne# a!e achie&edB i3 in4ati$n i# !$u*ht d$wn t$ a #ta"e+

#in*"e-di*it !ate ii3 f$!ei*n echan*e '!e,iu, i# c$,'"ete"( e"i,inated

and iii3 the "e&e" $f inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e# i# adeuate t$ /nance at "ea#t 2.D,$nth# $f '!$#'ecti&e i,'$!t#.

&i. -e e.!ect $raual im!ro#ement in Vietnams economic

situation urin$ the secon half of &'//. The in4ati$n !ate i# e'ected

t$ 'ea% in 2 and then *!adua""( fa"" t$ a!$und 1D 'e!cent ( the end $f the

(ea!+ a# the fu"" i,'act $f '$"ic( ti*htenin* ta%e# h$"d. The cu!!ent acc$unt

de/cit i# e'ected t$ e a!$und D 'e!cent $f G@9 and the f$!ei*n echan*e

,a!%et #h$u"d !e,ain #ta"e in the f$!e#eea"e futu!e. With

,ac!$ec$n$,ic #tai"it( *!adua""( !etu!nin*+ inte!na" ca'ita" 4i*ht #h$u"d

#u#ide in 2011+ he"'in* S6V t$ accu,u"ate !e#e!&e# fa#te!. The $ut'ut

*!$wth+ afte! #"$win* d$wn in 1 and 2+ i# "i%e"( t$ 'ic% u' #t!en*th (

(ea! end. We e'ect ec$n$,ic *!$wth in 2011 t$ e #"i*ht"( unde! F

'e!cent+ with #i*ni/cant u'#ide '$tentia" in 2012. $we&e!+ $u! $ut"$$% i#

e'$#ed t$ a nu,e! $f d$wn#ide !i#%#. Th$#e !i#%# inc"ude '!e,atu!e

withd!awa" $f #tai"iHati$n ,ea#u!e#+ !e#u!facin* $f '!$"e,# in the


6/39

1


an%in* and #tate-$wned ente!'!i#e #ect$!# and c$ntinued inc!ea#e in

*"$a" c$,,$dit( '!ice# $! a fu"" "$wn #$&e!ei*n det c!i#i# in Eu!$'e and

it# c$nta*i$n eect $n the !e#t $f the w$!"d.


7/39

1


I) RECE0T1234A2A05RE1I30A25EVE236ME0TSA053UT2337

I)A 1lo"al Reco#ery8 Steay "ut Une#en/

/) The reco#ery of the $lo"al economy has $aine *rmer footin$,es!ite $rowin$ tensions an !otentially isru!ti#e e#ents in #arious

!arts of the worl in recent months. @e&e"$'in* c$unt!( G@9 *!ew .0

'e!cent in 2010 and *"$a" indu#t!ia" '!$ducti$n and t!ade a!e $nce a*ain

e'andin* !a'id"( /*u!e 1+ "eft 'ane"3. St!$n* f$!ce# $f !ec$&e!( inc"ude

&i!ant d$,e#tic de,and in de&e"$'in* c$unt!ie#+ u!*e$nin* #$uth-#$uth

t!ade+ c$ntinued e'an#i$na!( /#ca" and ,$neta!( '$"ic( #tance in ,$#t

ad&anced ec$n$,ie#+ and !educed d!a* $n *!$wth f!$, a !ec$&e!in*

/nancia" #ect$!. The#e fact$!# ha&e #$ fa! neut!a"iHed the in4uence $f #$,e

$f the ne*ati&e #h$c%# inc"udin* !i#in* *"$a" c$,,$dit( '!ice#+ '$"itica"

tu!,$i" in the Midd"e-Ea#t and N$!th Af!ica+ and the natu!a" di#a#te! and

nuc"ea! cata#t!$'he in Ja'an.

9i$ure /8 1lo"al Reco#ery an Role of 5e#elo!in$ Countries

Source: Global Economic Prospects (2011)

&) -hile the economic crisis was $lo"al in nature, the reco#ery

!rocess seems to ha#e a istinct local :a#or to it. >ec$&e!( in

indu#t!ia" '!$ducti$n ha# !$u*ht de&e"$'in* c$unt!( $ut'ut ,$!e than 1

'e!cent a$&e it# '!e-c!i#i# Au*u#t 2005 "e&e"# /*u!e 1+ !i*ht 'ane"3+ whi"e

'!$ducti$n in hi*h-inc$,e c$unt!ie# i# nea!"( 5 'e!cent e"$w the 'ea% $f

7e!ua!( 2005. Indu#t!ia" $ut'ut in China i# ,$!e than ?0 'e!cent a$&e it#

1@!aw# $n the @!aft G"$a" Ec$n$,ic 9!$#'ect#+ The W$!"d 6an% June+ 20113.

>i*ht 9ane"B ut at die!ent 'ace:eft 9ane"B Stead( *"$a" !ec$&e!(L


8/39

1


'!e-c!i#i# 'ea% and


9/39

1


#ect$!# c$u"d e n$ticea"e+ inc"udin* *a!,ent#+ /#he!ie# and e"ect!ica" wi!e andca"e#. The !ea#$n# f$! #,a""e! a**!e*ate i,'act a!eB i3 Ja'an)# c$nt!iuti$n t$

Vietna,)# t!ade ha# een dec!ea#in* #teadi"( a# the "atte! ha# di&e!#i/ed it# t!adede#tinati$n#+ e#'ecia""( afte! it# acce##i$n t$ WTO ii3 with "$n*-te!, *!$wth $f

Ja'ane#e c$,,e!cia" inte!e#t# in Vietna, '!e#e!&ed+ we e'ect c$,,itted 7@If!$, Ja'an t$ !e,ain hi*h+ th$u*h it ,a( di' #"i*ht"( in the nea!-te!, and iii3

/na""(+ Ja'ane#e $icia"# ha&e ,aintained that O@A t$ Vietna, wi"" n$t eaected ( the !ecent e&ent#.

Source:Global Economic Prospects, The World Ban (!une, 2011)" #$% Ban, The&mpact o' !apans risis on *ietnam (#pril +, 2011)

>) The renewe !ressure on $lo"al commoity !rices !oses

consiera"le ris= to $lo"al economic reco#ery. i*h and !i#in*

de,and f!$, e,e!*in* ,a!%et#+ #ha!' dec"ine in a*!icu"tu!a" #t$c%# t$

c$n#u,'ti$n+ Midd"e-Ea#t ten#i$n# and a*!icu"tu!a" #u''"( #h$c%# ha&e

'u#hed the *"$a" c$,,$dit( '!ice# hi*he!. 9!ice# $f inte!nati$na""( t!adedf$$d c$,,$ditie# ha&e !eached a",$#t the "e&e"# $#e!&ed du!in* the 2005

f$$d c!i#i#. $we&e!+ the '!ice $f *!ain# the ,$#t c!itica" f$$d c$,'$nent

f$! the '$$! and $ne $f Vietna,)# %e( e'$!t# ha# n$t inc!ea#ed a# ,uch

a# in 2005. C!ude $i" '!ice# ha&e een !i#in* ecau#e $f #t!$n* de,and in

A#ia and di#!u'ti$n $f $i" de"i&e!ie# due t$ '$"itica" tu!,$i" in the Midd"e

Ea#t and N$!th Af!ica.

?) The recent isru!tions notwithstanin$, $lo"al $rowth is

!ro@ecte to remain stron$ from &'// throu$h &'/>. In hi*h-inc$,e

c$unt!ie#+ the ne*ati&e i,'act $f an%in*-#ect$! !e#t!uctu!in* and h$u#in*-#ect$! dec"ine# wi"" ea#e #$,ewhat and ,an( de&e"$'in* c$unt!ie# wi""

!e*ain acti&it( "e&e"# c$n#i#tent with unde!"(in* '$tentia". Acc$!din* t$ the

"ate#t G"$a" Ec$n$,ic 9!$#'ect# 20113+ a W$!"d 6an% 'u"icati$n+ *"$a"

G@9 ha&in* e'and (


10/39

1


de&e"$'in* Ea#t A#ia *!$win* ( 'e!cent $! ,$!e. The *!$wth nu,e!#

f$! 2010 we!e 'a!ticu"a!"( hi*h f$! c$unt!ie# that e'e!ienced ne*ati&e

*!$wth in 200 and hence #aw a V-#ha'ed !ec$&e!(. $we&e!+ c$unt!ie#

#uch a# China and Vietna,+ which e'e!ienced $n"( a ,$de#t *!$wth

#"$wd$wn in 200+ did n$t #ee an( acce"e!ati$n in thei! *!$wth !ate# du!in*

2010 "eft 'ane"+ /*u!e 23.

9i$ure &8 1rowth an In:ation in selecte Countries in East Asia an6aci*c Re$ion

Source: East #sia and Pacic Economic -pdate (2011)

B) Consumer !rice in:ation rose faster than e.!ecte since late

&'/' ue to a sur$e in foo an commoity !rices, ro"ust omestic

eman, an limite monetary ti$htenin$. In4ati$n i# a$&e ta!*et# $!

$icia" '!$ecti$n# in China+ Ind$ne#ia+ S$uth K$!ea and Vietna, and i#

a$&e the *$&e!n,ent)# c$,f$!t "e&e" in #e&e!a" $the! c$unt!ie#. The

#(nch!$n$u# ,$&e,ent in in4ati$n !ate# ac!$## c$unt!ie# '$int# t$ the

inc!ea#in* !$"e $f *"$a" fact$!# in in4uencin* d$,e#tic '!ice# !i*ht 'ane"+

/*u!e 23. $we&e!+ at the #a,e ti,e+ hi*h in4ati$n !ate ha# 'e!#i#ted in

Vietna,+ !e4ectin* '!$-*!$wth and '!$-in4ati$n ia#) in the c$unt!()#'$"ic( #tance a# we"" a# it# #tatu# a# a #u!'"u# and "a!*e e'$!te! $f f$$d

'!$duct# the "atte! e'"ainin* the *!eate! t$"e!ance $f Vietna, t$wa!d#

hi*he! in4ati$n+ e#'ecia""( f$$d '!ice in4ati$n. M$!e$&e!+ the 'a##-th!$u*h

$f hi*h inte!nati$na" '!ice# $f fue" and ene!*( t$ the d$,e#tic c$n#u,e!#

ha# een uite !a'id in Vietna,+ with the *$&e!n,ent ch$$#in* t$ !ai#e the

'!ice $f %e( uti"itie# ( a #i*ni/cant a,$unt.

>i*ht 9ane"B M$nth"( C9I in4ati$n !ate:eft 9ane"B ua!te!"( >ea" G@9 *!$wth


11/39

1


9i$ure >8 Mo#ement of 0ominal E.chan$e Rate with res!ect to US ollarDan International Reser#es in Selecte Countries in East Asia an 6aci*c

Re$ion

Source: East #sia and Pacic Economic -pdate (2011)

) Most countries in the re$ion ha#e e.!erience nominal

a!!reciation of their currencies as well as a "uil%u! in reser#es,

while Vietnam continues to "uc= the re$ional tren. Gi&en the "$w

inte!e#t !ate# in ad&anced ec$n$,ie# and !i*hte! *!$wth '!$#'ect# in

e,e!*in* ,a!%et#+ the!e ha# een a #u!*e $f ete!na" ca'ita" int$ the "atte!+

e#'ecia""( int$ de&e"$'in* A#ia. C$unt!ie# ha&e u#ed a c$,inati$n $f

'$"ic( in#t!u,ent# t$ #afe*ua!d thei! ec$n$,ie# f!$, the &a*a!ie# $f !a'id

4uctuati$n# in ete!na" ca'ita" 4$w#+ inc"udin* a""$win* thei! cu!!encie# t$

a''!eciate "eft 'ane"+ /*u!e


12/39

1


#t!$n* *!$wth in Ea#t A#ia de#'ite #$,e ,$de!ati$n t$ c$,at in4ati$n+

and !$u#t inte!nati$na" ca'ita" 4$w# $de we"" f$! Vietna,)# ec$n$,(. A#

it atte,'t# t$ c$$" d$wn it# $&e!heated d$,e#tic ec$n$,( ( 'u!#uin* ti*ht

,$neta!( and /#ca" '$"icie#+ the !$u#t e'$!t de,and f!$, the !e#t $f the

w$!"d #h$u"d *i&e a ,uch needed $$#t t$ it# in&e#t,ent and *!$wth

'!$#'ect#.

II) RECE0TEC303MIC5EVE236ME0TS

II)A Cyclical Reco#ery amist a Structural Slowown

F) Vietnams economy continues to reco#er ra!ily from the

$lo"al economic crisis, aie "y stron$ $rowth in !u"lic in#estment

an ra!i $rowth in omestic creit) >ea" G@9 *!ew at F.5 'e!cent in

2010 the fa#te#t 'ace in the "a#t th!ee (ea!# "eft 'ane"+ /*u!e ?3. The!e

wa# a #tead( !ec$&e!( in $ut'ut du!in* 2010+ with 1+ 2 and < *!$wth!ate# !e'$!ted at D.5+ F.? and .2 'e!cent !e#'ecti&e"(. The u't!end wa#

,aintained th!$u*h the "a#t ua!te!+ which #aw a #ha!' inc!ea#e in 'u"ic

in&e#t,ent and a !a'id *!$wth in d$,e#tic c!edit+ with *!$wth !ate

!eachin* t$ .< 'e!cent in ? the hi*he#t in the 'a#t 11 ua!te!#. The

e'an#i$na!( '$"ic( h$we&e! c$u"d n$t e #u#tained+ a# it t!i**e!ed a new

wa&e $f in4ati$n and f$!ced a &i#i"e ti*htenin* $f ,$neta!( '$"ic( in ea!"(

2011. The $ut'ut *!$wth in 1 $f 2011 fe"" t$ D.? 'e!cent+ a"$n* the

e'ected "ine. Initia" !e'$!t# indicate that /!#t-ha"f *!$wth ,a( e a!$und

D.F 'e!cent.

9i$ure ?8 Vietnam an ASEA0 ? 1rowth Rates8 6re%Crisis #s 0ow

>i*ht 9ane"B Vietna, ASEAN ? *!$wth:eft 9ane"B Vietna,)# $ut'ut *!$wth


13/39

1


Source: General Statistics Office, Note:East #sia and Pacic Economic -pdate (2011)

/') -hile Vietnam has witnesse a healthy cyclical reco#ery, itsstructural $rowth rate seems to "e si$ni*cantly "elow its !re%crisis

le#els. 6( 2010+ ,$#t ,idd"e inc$,e c$unt!ie# in S$uth Ea#t A#ia had

!e*ained *!$wth !ate# achie&ed in the '!e-c!i#i# 'e!i$d. 6ut n$t Vietna,.

A# #h$wn in the !i*ht 'ane" $f /*u!e ?+ Ind$ne#ia+ Ma"a(#ia+ 9hi"i''ine# and

Thai"and !e'$!ted *!$wth !ate# in 2010 that we!e hi*he! than thei!

!e#'ecti&e a&e!a*e *!$wth !ate du!in* 2002-0 'e!i$d. $we&e!+ in ca#e $f

Vietna,+ the !e&e!#e i# t!ue with the '$#t-c!i#i# 'ea% *!$wth !ate ein*

#i*ni/cant"( e"$w the '!e-c!i#i# a&e!a*e. The!e a!e #e&e!a" fact$!# that

'$int t$ a '$tentia" *!$wth #"$wd$wn. The a,$unt $f c$,,itted $!

!e*i#te!ed3 f$!ei*n di!ect in&e#t,ent ha# een #teadi"( fa""in* #ince 2005+

with the /!#t D ,$nth# $f 2011 !e*i#te!in* a ?5 'e!cent dec"ine. At the

#a,e ti,e+ acce"e!ati$n in 'u"ic in&e#t,ent $f !ecent (ea!#+ inc"udin*

th$#e ca!!ied $ut ( #tate-$wned ente!'!i#e#+ i# un"i%e"( t$ e #u#tained int$

the futu!e. It i# the!ef$!e inc!ea#in*"( c"ea! that with$ut #i*ni/cant

i,'!$&e,ent in the ua"it( and '!$ducti&it( $f in&e#t,ent+ Vietna, wi"" n$t

e a"e t$ !etu!n t$ the et!a$!dina!( *!$wth !ate# $f the ea!"( t$ ,id-

2000#.

9i$ure 8 Sectoral transformationan rise of ser#ices sector

6i'ht ane&< (hare in rea& )D B198A-1


14/39

1


Source:General Statistics Office

//) A slow "ut steay sectoral transformation a!!ears to "e

unerway, with traitional traa"le sectors G inustry an

a$riculture G e.!eriencin$ lower $rowth. =nti" !ecent"(+ Vietna,)#

'!iHed *!$wth #t$!( ha# een a$ut it# ai"it( t$ '!$duce "$w #%i""+ "a$!-inten#i&e ,a## ,anufactu!in* '!$duct# and *ene!ate ,a##i&e a,$unt $f

#u!'"u# f$$d ite,# and a*!icu"tu!a" c$,,$ditie# f$! e'$!t#. Thi# '!$ce##

ha# een faci"itated ( #i*ni/cant in4$w# $f f$!ei*n di!ect in&e#t,ent and

!a'id inte*!ati$n $f Vietna,)# ec$n$,( with the !e#t $f the w$!"d th!$u*h a

#e!ie# $f t!ade a*!ee,ent#. 6ut #u!'!i#in*"(+ the#e t!aditi$na" t!ada"e

#ect$!# ha&e #een a #tead( dec"ine in thei! *!$wth !ate $&e! the "a#t tw$

decade# "eft 'ane"+ /*u!e-D3


15/39

1


/>) In#estment, es!ecially !u"lic in#estment, an !ri#ate

consum!tion remain the ma@or ri#ers of a$$re$ate eman in the

!ost%crisis !erio. The c$,'$#iti$n $f a**!e*ate de,and unde!went a,a$! #hift a!$und 200+ with a #i*ni/cant inc!ea#e in *!$## ca'ita"

f$!,ati$n+ ,$#t"( fue"ed ( !a'id e'an#i$n $f f$!ei*n di!ect in&e#t,ent

and+ ,$!e !ecent"(+ due t$ inc!ea#e in 'u"ic in&e#t,ent "eft 'ane"+ /*u!e

F3. Thi# 'e!i$d a"#$ c$incided with #$,e inc!ea#e in '!i&ate c$n#u,'ti$n a#

a #ha!e $f a**!e*ate de,and+ a"eit ( a #,a""e! ,a*nitude than

in&e#t,ent. The inc!ea#ed #ha!e $f in&e#t,ent and '!i&ate c$n#u,'ti$n

wa# $#et ( an eua""( #ha!' dec!ea#e in the #ha!e $f net e'$!t#+

c$incidin* with a 'e!i$d $f 'e!#i#tent"( "a!*e t!ade and cu!!ent acc$unt

de/cit#. The c$,'$#iti$n $f a**!e*ate de,and ha# een ,$!e $! "e##

#ta"e th!$u*h$ut the '$#t-c!i#i# 'e!i$d a# #een in the !i*ht 'ane" $f /*u!e

F. With i,'$!t# *!$win* #"$we! than e'$!t#+ the c$nt!iuti$n $f net

e'$!t# t$ $&e!a"" *!$wth inc!ea#ed etween 200 and 200+ ut then fe"" in2010. The "a!*e #ti,u"u# 'ac%a*e+ #$,e 'a!t# $f which we!e !etained

th!$u*h the ,idd"e $f 2010+ and !a'id *!$wth $f d$,e#tic c!edit du!in* the

"a#t ua!te! $f 200? '!$&ided the nece##a!( u$(anc( t$ in&e#t,ent and

'!i&ate c$n#u,'ti$n t$ c$ntinue t$ *!$w at a hea"th( 'ace th!$u*h$ut 2010.

9i$ure B8 5ri#ers of A$$re$ate 5eman

Source:General Statistics Office

/e#t ane&< (hare in a''re'ate de"and B200E-2010C 6i'ht ane&< 3ontribution to a''re'ate de"and, in B200?-2010C


16/39

1


/?) The recent ecline in the share of !ri#ate non%stateD omestic

in#estment in total in#estment is a matter of concern. 7$""$win* the

"aunch $f a '$"itica" and ec$n$,ic !enewa" ca,'ai*n QFi MGi3 in 15F+Vietna, ha# #een a #"$w ut #tead( dec"ine in the #ha!e $f #tate in&e#t,ent

in fa&$! $f f$!ei*n and n$n-#tate d$,e#tic in&e#t,ent#. A# #h$wn in the "eft

'ane" $f /*u!e + thi# t!end acce"e!ated etween 2000 and 2005+ ut wa#

!e&e!#ed $n the wa%e $f the *"$a" ec$n$,ic c!i#i#+ a# '!i&ate in&e#t,ent

'u""ed ac% and 'u"ic in&e#t,ent #te''ed in t$ /"" the *a'. Thi# wa#

#u''$#ed t$ e a te,'$!a!( !e#'$n#e t$ a te,'$!a!( #h$c%. $we&e!+ the

*$&e!n,ent ha# een #"$w t$ withd!aw it# in&e#t,ent+ with the #tate #ect$!

in&e#t,ent a,$untin* t$ ?D 'e!cent $f t$ta" in&e#t,ent in the /!#t ua!te!

$f 2011+ c$,'a!ed t$ 2 and 2 'e!cent f$! n$n-#tate d$,e#tic and f$!ei*n

in&e#t,ent# !e#'ecti&e"(. Thi# dec"ine in '!i&ate d$,e#tic in&e#t,ent d$e#

n$t $de we"" f$! Vietna,+ which need# a th!i&in* d$,e#tic '!i&ate #ect$! t$#u''$!t it# ,idd"e inc$,e a#'i!ati$n#.

/) The eclinin$ tren in committe forei$n irect in#estment is

also worrisome. 7$!ei*n di!ect in&e#t,ent n$t $n"( !in*# new

techn$"$*ie# and ,ana*e,ent '!actice# t$ Vietna,+ it acc$unt# f$! the u"%

$f ,anufactu!in* e'$!t# and i# a ,a$! #$u!ce $f /nancin* f$! the

c$unt!()# cu!!ent acc$unt de/cit. Gi&en the unu#ua""( hi*h "e&e" $f 7@I in

the 'a#t+ #$,e #"$wd$wn i# ine&ita"e. 6ut the !ecent dec"ine ha# een

hi*he! than e'ected. In the /!#t /&e ,$nth# $f 2011+ =S?. i""i$n 7@I

wa# c$,,itted t$ Vietna, !e"ati&e t$ =S i""i$n du!in* the #a,e 'e!i$d$f 2010 a wh$''in* ?5 'e!cent fa"". In additi$n+ c$,,itted 7@I in 2010

wa# "$we! than in 200+ which in tu!n wa# "$we! than the c$!!e#'$ndin*

nu,e! in 2005 !i*ht 'ane"+ /*u!e 3. 7$!tunate"(+ the di#u!#ed

i,'"e,ented3 7@I ha# he"d u' we"" #$ fa!+ de#'ite a !a'id"( #h!in%in*

'i'e"ine $f new c$,,it,ent#. M$!e$&e!+ *i&en the #"$w di#u!#e,ent !ate+

dec"ine in c$,,it,ent wi"" n$t ha&e an i,,ediate i,'act $n the ec$n$,(.

Ne&e!the"e##+ thi# i##ue ,e!it# ,$!e !e#ea!ch+ e#'ecia""( unde!#tandin* the

!$"e $f the d$,e#tic fact$!# #uch a# ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it(+ '$we!

#h$!ta*e+ *!$win* #ca!cit( $f #%i""ed '!$fe##i$na"# in e'"ainin* the cu!!ent#"$wd$wn in 7@I.

9i$ure 8 2e#el an Com!osition of In#estment


17/39

1


Source:General Statistics O ffice

II)4 4oomin$ International Trae

/B) Vietnams international trae has reco#ere ra!ily to sur!ass

its stron$ !erformance of the !re%crisis !erio) 6ein* a hi*h"( $'en

and t!ade de'endent c$unt!( with t!ade t$ G@9 !ati$ eceedin* 1F0

'e!cent the!e wa# a c$nce!n that Vietna, c$u"d e #e&e!e"( aected (

the *"$a" ec$n$,ic c!i#i#+ with c"$#u!e $f /!,# and "a(in* $ $f w$!%e!#.

Th$#e fea!# did n$t ,ate!ia"iHe+ 'a!t"( due t$ the ti,e"( and "a!*e #ti,u"u#

,ea#u!e# and 'a!t"( due t$ the !e#i"ience $f the e'$!t #ect$!. In !ecent,$nth#+ the c$unt!( ha# a"#$ ene/tted f!$, hi*he! *"$a" c$,,$dit(

'!ice# and #tead( ec$n$,ic !ec$&e!( in the ad&ance ec$n$,ie#. The t!ade

de/cit ha# na!!$wed ( ,$!e than 'e!centa*e '$int# in tw$ (ea!# f!$,

1?.2 'e!cent $f G@9 in 2005 t$ F. 'e!cent in 2010.

/) The e.!ort sector has weathere the $lo"al an omestic

shoc=s much "etter than antici!ate. Afte! the w$!#t (ea! $n !ec$!d in

200+ Vietna,)# e'$!t 'e!f$!,ance !e$unded #t!$n*"( in 2010+

!e*i#te!in* an $&e!a"" *!$wth !ate $f 2F.? 'e!cent in &a"ue te!,#3 and n$n-

$i" e'$!t# *!$wth $f


18/39

1


Ta"le /8 Vietnams E.!ort 6erformance

Value in2010 (in

US$billion!

"#o%& in '

200 2010

)*+11,o-.a#e/%o )*+10

To%al e.o#% ea#nin 232 +43 253) 632

Crude oil 5.0 -40.2 -20.0 40.1

Non-oil 67.2 -2.7 32.0 36.9

Rice 3.2 -8.0 21.9 14.6

Other agricultural 6.4 -13.1 35.1 89.9

!ea"ood 5.0 -5.7 18.0 28.3

Coal 1.6 -5.1 22.3 -8.1

#arment 11.2 -0.6 23.7 33.7

$oot%ear 5.1 -14.7 26.0 31.1

&lectronic ' com(uter 3.6 4.7 29.9 11.4

)andicra"t *including 3.3 133.1 5.3 15.6,ood (roduct 3.4 -8.2 32.3 14.6

Other 24.2 -6.3 49.0 42.9

Source: General .epartment o' ustoms

/() 2ar$e forei$n in#estments into the e.!ort sector an increasin$

mar=et access throu$h trae a$reements seem to ha#e also !laye a

role in ma=in$ the sector more resilient) The "a$!-inten#i&e

,anufactu!in* '!$duct# #uch a# *a!,ent#+ f$$twea!+ and e"ect!$nic#+ ,an(

$f which a!e '!$duced eithe! di!ect"( ( f$!ei*n /!,# $! th!$u*h c$nt!act

a!!an*e,ent with "$ca" /!,# #$"e"( f$! the e'$!t ,a!%et+ ha&e '$#ted #$"id'e!f$!,ance ta"e 13. Ga!,ent e'$!t# ha&e !e,ained #t!$n* in the /!#t

f$u! ,$nth# $f 2011+ *!$win* (


19/39

1


(ea!. The di!ecti$n $f t!ade !e,ain# unchan*ed f!$, "a#t (ea!+ with China

!e,ainin* it# ,$#t i,'$!tant #$u!ce $f i,'$!t# f$""$wed ( ASEAN and

$the! Eat A#ian c$unt!ie#.&') To facilitate Vietnamese e.!orts to mo#e u! the $lo"al su!!ly

chain has emer$e as a =ey !riority for !olicyma=ers an national

scholars. @e#'ite the #t!$n* c(c"ica" !ec$&e!( $f e'$!t# f!$, the c!i#i#+

Vietna, ha# n$t ,ade #i*ni/cant '!$*!e## in di&e!#if(in* it# e'$!t a#%et

t$ inc"ude hi*he! &a"ue-added ,anufactu!in* and indu#t!ia" '!$duct#. In

fact+ Vietna, i# #ti"" 'e!cei&ed a# a "a!*e+ "$w-c$#t c$,,$dit( e'$!te! with

ite,# #uch a# !ice+ #eaf$$d and $the! a*!icu"tu!a" c$,,$ditie# c$nt!iutin*

t$ nea!"( ?0 'e!cent $f it# n$n-$i" e'$!t#. The !e,ainin* e'$!t# a!e in

"$w-c$#t+ ,a## '!$duced ,anufactu!in* '!$duct#+ ,$#t $f wh$#e

inte!,ediate '!$duct# a!e i,'$!ted. Whi"e the!e d$e# #ee, t$ e a ce!tain

"ac% $f d(na,i#, in the e'$!t#+ it i# unc"ea! what fact$!# a!e c$nt!iutin*

t$ it and what faci"itatin* !$"e+ if an(+ the *$&e!n,ent can '"a( in it.

Ta"le >8 Vietnams Im!ort 6erformance

Value in2010 (in

US$billion!

"#o%& in '

200 2010)*+11

,o-.a#e/%o )*+10

To%al i-.o#% 7alue !" +1636 2132 6036

etrol and gaoline ?.1 -43.0 -2.8 67.1achiner/ and eui(ment 1.A -9.4 8.0 16.2#arment and leather material 2.? -18.0 35.7 21.1

Com(uter and electronic E.2 6.5 31.7 29.7!teel ?.2 -20.2 14.8 17.6$ertilier 1.2 -3.9 -13.9 28.5latic .8 -4.5 34.2 38.3$aric E.; -5.2 26.9 43.7Chemical 2.1 -8.5 30.4 33.4Chemical (roduct 2.1 -1.5 30.0 26.0harmac/ 1.2 26.9 13.3 23.8$ier and %eaing /arn 1.2 4.6 45.1 64.1eticide 0.E -34.3 12.4 11.9Cotton 0.A -16.0 71.9 111.3

a(er 0.9 2.3 20.1 33.6utomoile 2.9 3.8 -5.2 26.0Other 29.0 -11.0 35.1 25.4

Source: General .epartment o' ustoms

II)C 4alance of 6ayments8 6essimism at Home "ut SomeD 3!timism

A"roa


20/39

1


&/) Vietnams "alance of !ayments is a curious mi. of a moerate

le#el of current account e*cit, lar$e ca!ital in:ows an massi#e

internal ca!ital :i$ht. 9e!i$d# $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( a!e $ften

a##$ciated with a "a!*e and dete!i$!atin* cu!!ent acc$unt de/cit CA@3+

which when eceedin* the "e&e" $f ca'ita" acc$unt #u!'"u# CAS3+ "ead# t$ a

de'"eti$n $f inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e#. Vietna, ha# had it# fai! #ha!e $f

,ac!$ec$n$,ic &$"ati"it( in !ecent (ea!# and ha# a"#$ #een it# !e#e!&e#

dec"inin*. 6ut the "atte! ha# n$t een cau#ed ( a "a!*e and un#u#taina"e

CA@ $! "$w and fa""in* CAS. In fact the $''$#ite ha# een the ca#e.

Vietna,)# CA@ ha# na!!$wed f!$, =S 10.5 i""i$n in 2005 t$ =S ?.0

i""i$n in 2010. @u!in* the #a,e 'e!i$d+ it# CAS ha# h$&e!ed a!$und =S

12.0 i""i$n ,a!%. S$ the$!etica""(+ Vietna, #h$u"d ha&e #een it#

inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e# inc!ea#in* each (ea! ( an a,$unt eua" t$ the

die!ence etween CAS and CA@. In#tead the!e ha# een a ,a##i&e

un!ec$!ded $ut4$w $f ca'ita" each (ea! ca'ita" he"d ( !e#ident# inf$!ei*n cu!!enc( and *$"d $ut#ide the /nancia" #(#te, a# a hed*e a*ain#t

in4ati$n and de'!eciati$n fa! eceedin* the die!ence etween CAS and

CA@ and !e#u"tin* in !e#e!&e "$##.

&&) Vietnams current account e*cit has narrowe consiera"ly in

recent years, "ut has not le to a reuce !ressure on the forei$n

e.chan$e) @u!in* 2005+ when CA@ !eached =S10.5 i""i$n $! 11.

'e!cent $f G@93+ it wa# e"ie&ed that #uch a hi*h "e&e" $f CA@ i#

un#u#taina"e and c$u"d e a ,a$! #$u!ce $f &$"ati"it( in the f$!ei*n

echan*e ,a!%et. 6ut with #t!$n*e! e'$!t#+ inc!ea#ed !ecei't# f!$,

t$u!i#, and a !$u#t 4$w $f !e,ittance#+ CA@ *!adua""( fe"" t$ =SF.1

i""i$n $! F.F 'e!cent $f G@93 in 200 and t$ =S?.0 i""i$n $! i*ht 9ane"B Ca'ita" Acc$unt 6a"ance:eft 9ane"B Cu!!ent Acc$unt

6a"ance


21/39

1


Source:General Statistics 3ice

&>) Vietnam has mana$e to sustain a hi$h le#el of e.ternal ca!ital

:ows in s!ite of its on$oin$ macroeconomic insta"ility. The c$unt!(

!e,ain# an att!acti&e de#tinati$n f$! f$!ei*n in&e#t,ent+ th$u*h the "e&e" $f

7@I ha# dec"ined afte! hittin* it# 'ea% in 2005. Acc$!din* t$ a"ance $f'a(,ent #tati#tic#+ net 7@I i# e#ti,ated t$ ha&e fa""en ,$de#t"( t$ =S F.1

i""i$n in 2010 c$,'a!ed t$ =S F. i""i$n in 200. At the #a,e ti,e+ afte!

a *a' $f tw$ (ea!#+ '$!tf$"i$ in&e#t,ent ha# !etu!ned t$ Vietna,+

a,$untin* t$ nea!"( =S2.? i""i$n in 2010. The a,$unt $f ,ediu, and

"$n*-te!, "$an#+ the u"% $f which i# f!$, $icia" #$u!ce#+ ha# !e*!e##ed t$

it# t!end "e&e" $f a!$und =S2 i""i$n in 2010 afte! inc!ea#in* #ha!'"(

du!in* 200. C$n#euent"(+ t$ta" CAS i# e'ected t$ ha&e inc!ea#ed t$ =S

1


22/39

1


cu,u"ati&e in4ati$n a,$untin* t$ a wh$''in* 10F 'e!cent du!in* thi#

'e!i$d. Wh( d$e# Vietna, ha&e #uch hi*h in4ati$n and h$w d$e# it aect

it# "$w inc$,e h$u#eh$"d# f$! "atte!+ #ee 6$-23P

&B) Vietnams current "out of in:ation is "ein$ cause "y some of

the same factors that le to the !re#ious o#erheatin$ e!isoe of

&''() The hi*h and !a'id"( !i#in* in4ati$n in Vietna, ha# een a '!$duct

$f ete!na" fact$!# !i#in* *"$a" f$$d and fue" '!ice#+ ad&e!#e weathe!

e&ent# and a nu,e! $f d$,e#tic fact$!# de"a(ed withd!awa" $f #ti,u"u#

'ac%a*e+ !a'id *!$wth in "iuidit( and c!edit du!in* the #ec$nd ha"f $f 2010+

#i,u"tane$u# inc!ea#e in fue" '!ice# and '$we! ta!i# c$,ined with the

"a**ed eect $f d$n* de&a"uati$n#. The hi%e in ,ini,u, wa*e#+ th$u*h

!$utine and '"anned+ i# "i%e"( t$ ha&e c$nt!iuted t$ the in4ati$na!(

e'ectati$n# a# we"". C$n#euent"(+ in4ati$n in Ma( 2011 wa# at 1.5

'e!cent the hi*he#t !ate #ince @ece,e! 2005. The fact that Vietna, n$wha# $ne $f the hi*he#t in4ati$n !ate# in the w$!"d *$e# $n t$ #u**e#t that

d$,e#tic fact$!# ha&e '"a(ed a di#'!$'$!ti$nate"( "a!*e! !$"e in the cu!!ent

in4ati$na!( e'i#$de.

9i$ure F8 In:ation ynamics urin$ the last four years

Source: General Statistics Office

4o.%& Social Im!act of Risin$ In:ation on 2ow Income Househols

A new !a'id i,'act a##e##,ent ca!!ied $ut ( Ofa,Ran$i in ea!"( Ma(+ 2011 in#e&e!a" "$w inc$,e nei*h$!h$$d# in CMC+ an$i+ and ai'h$n* hi*h"i*ht# thehi*h &u"ne!ai"it( $f ce!tain *!$u'# &iH. the e"de!"( and 'e!#$n# "i&in* $n /edinc$,e#+ "$w-wa*e ,i*!ant w$!%e!#+ ,an( #e"f-e,'"$(ed w$!%e!#+ etc.3 and a"#$

:eft 9ane"B Annua" chan*e in C9I >i*ht 9ane"B M$nth"( chan*e in


23/39

1


#u''$!t# !$ad c$nce!n# &$iced ( 'u"ic #ect$! e,'"$(ee# and 'e!#$n# in ,idd"einc$,e !ac%et#. Ea!"( /ndin*# $f thi# a##e##,ent inc"udeB

Se#erity8N$ #e&e!e c!i#i#) c$n#euence# we!e identi/ed at the h$u#eh$"d "e&e" chi"d!en we!e n$t 'u""ed $ut $f #ch$$"+ the!e wa# n$ acute hun*e!. 7a,i"ie# we!e,ana*in* ( ,ean# $f c$n&enti$na" inf$!,a" ,ea#u!e#+ #uch a# !educed

c$n#u,'ti$n in f$$d#tu# ,eat+ /#h+ hi*he! ua"it( ite,#3+ !educin* e"ect!icit(u#e+ cu!tai"in* #$cia" e'enditu!e#+ a# we"" a# !educed #a&in*# and !e,ittance# andte,'$!a!( he"' f!$, fa,i"( and f!iend#. 9$$! h$u#eh$"d# "i&in* $n /ed inc$,e#we!e ha!de#t hit the ,ea#u!e# the( u#e a!e &e!( ,uch #h$!t !un. The ,$#t#e!i$u# i,'"icati$n i# the !i#in* ten#i$n $&e! ,i#,atched #a"a!ie# and '!ice hi%e#3in indu#t!ia" !e"ati$n# etween e,'"$(e!# and e,'"$(ee#+ e#'ecia""( in #$,e "a$!-inten#i&e indu#t!ie#.

Vulnera"ilityB Th$#e "i&in* $n 'en#i$n#+ $! wh$#e '!i,a!( #$u!ce $f inc$,e i#"$w #a"a!ie#+ e#'ecia""( ,i*!ant fact$!( w$!%e!#+ &$iced the *!eate#t c$nce!n#.Se"f-e,'"$(ed w$!%e!# in the inf$!,a" #ect$! a''ea! "e## &u"ne!a"eB the( canee!ci#e #$,e 4eii"it( ( !ai#in* '!ice# $f thei! *$$d# and #e!&ice#.6olicy Res!onses) G$&e!n,ent !ecent"( 'ut in '"ace a nu,e! $f #$,ewhat adh$c '$"ic( ,ea#u!e# t$ he"' h$u#eh$"d# c$'e with the i,,ediate eect# $f !i#in*'!ice#+ inc"udin* a nu,e! $f #u#idie# and $ne-ti,e 'a(,ent# t$ e"i*i"e *!$u'#e.*. "$w inc$,e 'u"ic #ect$! w$!%e!#+ 'en#i$ne!#+ #$cia" ene/cia!ie# and'e!#$n# $f ,e!it3 unde! @eci#i$n F?1+ a"#$ a ,$nth"( e"ect!icit( #u#id( $f VN@


24/39

1


ti,e wi"" c$n&ince the !e#ident# that the c(c"e ha# een !$%en and c$u"d

"ead t$ a &i!tu$u# c(c"e $f "$w in4ati$n and #ta"e echan*e !ate c$nditi$n#

that wi"" faci"itate a !a'id *!$wth !ate in the futu!e.

II)E A 5i$ression8 Measurin$ the Se#erity of Macroeconomic

Insta"ility

&() -e ha#e e#elo!e a sim!le measure that ca!tures the se#erity

of macroeconomic insta"ility in Vietnam. Such a ,ea#u!e i# i,'$!tant

when a c$unt!( i# 'e!i$dica""( #uect t$ $ut# $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it(+

and the!e a!e ,an( fact$!# that c$nt!iute t$ it# ,a%in*. A #in*"e #u,,a!(

,ea#u!e can #e!&e a# a "eadin* indicat$! $f h$w the $&e!a"" #ituati$n i#

#ha'in* u' and he"' the auth$!itie# t$ ta%e '!ee,'ti&e acti$n#. Since

Vietna,)# ,ac!$ec$n$,ic c$nditi$n# a!e !$$ted in f$!ei*n echan*e

in#tai"it(+ we ha&e u#ed a ,$di/ed &e!#i$n $f echan*e ,a!%et '!e##u!eEM93 inde that i# wide"( u#ed in #tud( $f cu!!enc( c!i#e#. We ha&e

e#ti,ated Vietna, Inde $f Mac!$ec$n$,ic Stai"it( VIMS3 inc$!'$!atin*

the ,$&e,ent $f f$u! &a!ia"e#+ &iH. the echan*e !ate+ inte!nati$na"

!e#e!&e#+ inte!e#t !ate# and in4ati$n !ate. The detai"# $f h$w VIMS i#

ca"cu"ated a!e !e'$!ted in the Anne-1.

&F) Vietnams current e!isoe of macroeconomic insta"ility was as

se#ere as the !re#ious o#erheatin$ e!isoe of mi%&''(, thou$h

sta"ility seems to "e $raually returnin$) Ou! ,ea#u!e $f VIMS #h$w#

that the de*!ee $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( du!in* the cu!!ent e'i#$de did

c$,e uite c"$#e t$ that $f the ,id-2005+ ut did n$t #u!'a## it /*u!e-103.

Ne&e!the"e##+ the cu!!ent e'i#$de #tand# $ut in te!,# $f it# du!ai"it( and

'e!#i#tence. =n"i%e 2005+ when the "e&e" $f in#tai"it( inc!ea#ed and fe""

uic%"(+ ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( ha# 'e!#i#ted $&e! a "$n*e! 'e!i$d $f

ti,e du!in* the cu!!ent e'i#$de f!$, N$&e,e! 2010 t$ 7e!ua!( 2011

the!e( e'$#in* Vietna,)# ec$n$,( t$ a '!$"$n*ed 'e!i$d $f ne!&$u#ne##

and unce!taint(. $we&e!+ *i&en #$,e $f the "i,itati$n# $f ,ea#u!in* #uch

an inde a# di#cu##ed in Anne-13+ it i# i,'$!tant that the f$cu# #h$u"d n$t

e $n a #'eci/c &a"ue $f VIMS ut $n it# t!end and the di!ecti$n $f chan*e.

9i$ure /'8 Vietnam Ine. of Macroeconomic Sta"ility VIMSD for ;an &''%May &'// !erio


25/39

1


Source:Estimates b4 World Ban sta3

II)9 9iscal an 5e"t Situation

>') -hile *scal e*cit is on a ownwar tren, the !ace of *scal

consoliation is slower than re


26/39

1


>&) The lar$est source of uncertainty an hence, un


27/39

1



28/39

1


a an% t$ fai". The a#ence $f an eicient !atin* #(#te,+ c$u'"ed with fai!"(

"$w "e&e" $f t!an#'a!enc( and di#c"$#u!e+ ha# c$nt!iuted t$ thi# '!$"e,.


29/39

1


indi&idua" #a&in*# and 0.D 'e!cent $n c$!'$!ate acc$unt#3+ a# we"" a# a ca'

$n e'$#u!e t$ the n$n-,anufactu!in* #ect$!#+ and an $n *$"d ,$i"iHati$n

and "endin*. The#e ad,ini#t!ati&e ,ea#u!e# ,a( ha&e '!$&en uite

eecti&e in the i,'"e,entati$n $f >e#$"uti$n 11 in the #h$!t-!un+ h$we&e! in

the "$n*e! !un+ the $&e!u#e $f the#e di!ect t$$"# !athe! than ,a!%et-a#ed

in#t!u,ent#+ can e ha!,fu" t$ the #$undne## $f the an%in* #(#te, a# we""

a# t$ the ec$n$,ic !ec$&e!( '!$ce##.

?0. Su!er#isory an re$ulatory framewor= an e+ecti#e

enforcement of the re$ulation will nee to "e further stren$thene .

S6V ha# u'*!aded it# #u'e!&i#i$n ( e#ta"i#hin* the 6an%in* Su'e!&i#i$n

A*enc( and !e&i#in* the tw$ an%in* "aw# and !e*u"ati$n $n '!udentia"

!ati$#. Ca'acit( ui"din* f$! #u'e!&i#$!#+ f$! $th $n-#ite and $-#ite

#u'e!&i#i$n+ i# $n*$in*+ ut de,$n#t!ated !e#u"t# a!e #ti"" "ac%in*. The

!e*u"ati$n enf$!ce,ent a''ea!# t$ !e,ain wea% with a nu,e! $f ad-h$c!e'$!tin* !eui!e,ent# t$ the c!edit in#tituti$n# in the 'a#t few (ea!#

a"th$u*h #u'e!&i#i$n ha# !ecei&ed aundant #u''$!t f!$, the auth$!itie#

and d$n$! c$,,unit(3.

?1. S4V has "een ma=in$ e+orts to im!ro#e trans!arency an

isclosure, "ut continues to la$ "ehin international an re$ional

!eers. S6V ha# int!$duced ,$!e t!an#'a!enc( in the #(#te, and t$ the

'u"ic+ a# #een ( the a,$unt $f data and inf$!,ati$n '!$&ided $n it#

we#ite and ,edia c$&e!a*e+ ut it #ti"" "a*# ehind it# 'ee!# in the !e*i$n.

With a !e&i#ed Ci!cu"a! $n inf$!,ati$n di#c"$#u!e t$ e i##ued ( ,id-2011+the!e #h$u"d e n$ticea"e i,'!$&e,ent#+ a"th$u*h cu!!ent c$n/dentia"it(

!e*u"ati$n# ( the *$&e!n,ent d$ n$t *i&e ,uch !$$, f$! c$,'!ehen#i&e

chan*e#. In thi# !e#'ect+ the e#ta"i#h,ent $f a Stati#tic# and 7$!eca#tin*

@e'a!t,ent i# he"'in* t$ i,'!$&e the S6V)# ca'acit( in ,eetin* fu!the!

di#c"$#u!e !eui!e,ent# and ,$neta!( '$"ic( unde!ta%in* and f$!eca#tin*.

III) RECE0T632ICY5EVE236ME0TS

III)A -ell 4e$un, 4ut 3nly Half 5one

>>) Vietnam has seen a series of ma@or !olicy announcement in

recent months, which if im!lemente well coul hel! the country to

achie#e lastin$ macroeconomic sta"ility. Afte! the #ucce##fu"

c$,'"eti$n $f the 8Ith9a!t( C$n*!e## in Janua!( 2011+ a c$n#en#u# e,e!*ed

within the *$&e!n,ent inc"udin* the '!$&incia" *$&e!n,ent#3 t$ ta%e

#t!$n* ,ea#u!e# t$ !e#t$!e ,ac!$ec$n$,ic #tai"it(. The auth$!itie#


30/39

1


!ec$*niHed that thei! attenti$n and f$cu# #h$u"d e $n add!e##in* in#tai"it(

e&en if thi# c$,e# at the e'en#e $f #"$we! *!$wth in the #h$!t te!,. The

*$&e!n,ent 'u"ic"( indicated it# intenti$n t$ 'u!#ue ti*ht and '!udent

,$neta!( and /#ca" '$"ic( and a''!$&ed >e#$"uti$n 11+ which c$,,it# the

*$&e!n,ent t$ a wide !an*e $f ,$neta!(+ /#ca" and #t!uctu!a" '$"ic(

!ef$!,# that a!e intended t$ c$$" an $&e!heated ec$n$,(. S6V ha# een

,$#t acti&e in ann$uncin* f$""$w-u' ,ea#u!e# a# !eui!ed ( >e#$"uti$n 11

and #i,i"a! e$!t# a!e unde! '!e'a!ati$n in a"" the !e"e&ant ,ini#t!ie#.

e!e we '!$&ide a !ief #u,,a!( $f the ,ea#u!e# unde!ta%en #$ fa!B

Exchange Rate Policy

i3 The d$n* wa# de&a"ued ( .< 'e!cent a*ain#t the =S d$""a! and the

t!adin* and wa# na!!$wed f!$, 'e!cent t$ 'e!cent. Thi# i# the

#in*"e "a!*e#t c$!!ecti$n t$ the echan*e !ate f$""$win* the $n#et $f,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( in 200. The auth$!itie# ha&e a"#$ indicated

that the inte!-an% a&e!a*e echan*e !ate wi"" e ,ana*ed ,$!e 4ei"(+

c$n#i#tent with the intenti$n t$ *!adua""( ,$&e t$ a ,$!e 4ei"e

echan*e !ate !e*i,e. In !ecent wee%#+ the f$!ei*n echan*e '!e,iu,

in the 'a!a""e" ,a!%et ha# *!adua""( !educed t$ He!$. In Ma( 2011+ f$!

the /!#t ti,e in e#$"uti$n 11 in#t!uct# S6V t$ '!e'a!e a @ec!ee $n

Mana*e,ent $f G$"d T!adin* f$! i##uance ( the #ec$nd ua!te! $f 2011.

The @ec!ee wi"" cent!a"iHe *$"d e'$!t#+ e"i,inate t!adin* in *$"d a!#+

and '!e&ent c!$##-$!de! t!aic%in* $f *$"d. The >e#$"uti$n in#t!uct#!e#'$n#i"e auth$!itie# t$ en#u!e that f$!ei*n echan*e and *$"d t!ade!#

c$,'"( with the "aw.


31/39

1


Monetary Policy

i3 In the "a#t f$u! ,$nth#+ S6V ha# inc!ea#ed the a#e !e/nancin*3 !ate

f!$, 5 'e!cent t$ 1? 'e!cent and !e&i#ed the $&e!ni*ht ,a!%et $'e!ati$n

!e'$3 !ate u'wa!d ei*ht ti,e# f!$, 'e!cent t$ 1D 'e!cent !i*ht'ane"+ /*u!e 3.

9i$ure F8 E.chan$e rate an Interest rate mo#ement

Source:SB*

ii3 Acc$!din* t$ >e#$"uti$n 11+ the ta!*et f$! c!edit *!$wth in 2011 wi"" e

cut t$ 20 'e!cent f!$,


32/39

1


Banking Sector

i3 >e#$"uti$n 11 "i,it# an%#) e'$#u!e t$ n$n-'!$ducti&e acti&itie# which

inc"ude !ea" e#tate and #ecu!it( ,a!%et3 t$ 22 'e!cent $f t$ta" c!edit (

June


33/39

1


the end $f Ma!ch 2011. >e#$"uti$n 11 a"#$ indicate# that the

*$&e!n,ent wi"" acce"e!ate the euitiHati$n '!$ce## and #t!en*then the

*$&e!nance $f SOE#+ th$u*h eact ,ea#u!e# ha&e (et t$ e #'e""ed $ut.

Other Structural Measures

i+ The *$&e!n,ent i# '!e'a!in* a Ci!cu"a! t$ inc!ea#e di#c"$#u!e $f

inf$!,ati$n and '$"icie# aectin* ,$neta!( ,ana*e,ent and an%in*+

inc"udin* #u,ittin* %e( #tati#tic# t$ the IM7)# Inte!nati$na" 7inancia"

Stati#tic# $n #chedu"e. 7ina""(+ the *$&e!n,ent i# ,$&in* f!$, an

ad,ini#t!ati&e ,echani#, f$! #ettin* the '!ice# $f %e( c$,,$ditie# #uch

a# e"ect!icit(+ *a# and fue"+ t$ a ,$!e ,a!%et-a#ed ,echani#,. It

ann$unced an inc!ea#e in e"ect!icit( ta!i# ( 1D.< 'e!cent+ and tw$

!$und# $f '!ice inc!ea#e f$! *a#$"ine+ die#e"+ and %e!$#ene a,$untin* t$

,$!e than


34/39

1


thi# a!ea wi"" e diicu"t in face $f cu!!ent "aw# *$&e!nin* #tate #ec!et#.

Si,i"a!"(+ the!e need# t$ e c$ntinued u'datin* and #t!en*thenin* $f

!e*u"at$!( #(#te,# t$ f$!e#ta"" '!$"e,# in the an%in* #ect$!. With *!$wth

e'ected t$ #"$w d$wn in 2011+ the!e wi"" e de,and# f!$, &a!i$u#

ua!te!# t$ !e"a ,$neta!( and /#ca" '$"icie# and t$ *$ #"$w $n #t!uctu!a"

!ef$!,#. Ca'itu"atin* t$ #uch de,and# c$u"d '!$&e c$#t"( f$! the ec$n$,(.

>B) Instea of thin=in$ of an e.it timeta"le for withrawal of

sta"iliation measures, the authorities may consier e*nin$ a set of

inicators to measure the im!lementation !ro$ress) The cu!!ent

#ituati$n '!e#ent# the auth$!itie# with an $''$!tunit( t$ !eui"d Vietna,)#

e!$din* c!edii"it( ( #teadfa#t"( and eecti&e"( i,'"e,entin* >e#$"uti$n

11. And t$ a##e## i,'"e,entati$n #ucce## the auth$!itie# ,a( "i%e t$ de/ne

a #et $f indicat$!# with c"ea!"( #'eci/ed ta!*et#. A# and when th$#e ta!*et#

a!e ,et+ >e#$"uti$n 11 c$u"d e c$n#ide!ed t$ ha&e achie&ed it# $ecti&e.6a#ed $n the a$&e di#cu##i$n $n Vietna, Inde $f Mac!$ec$n$,ic

In#tai"it( VIMS3+ we #u**e#t the f$""$win* th!ee indicat$!#B i3 in4ati$n

!ate i# !educed t$ a #ta"e+ #in*"e-di*it !ate ii3 f$!ei*n echan*e '!e,iu,

i# c$,'"ete"( e"i,inated and iii3 the "e&e" $f inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e# i#

adeuate t$ /nance at "ea#t 2.D ,$nth# $f '!$#'ecti&e i,'$!t#.

IV) 3UT233793R&'//A054EY305

>) -ith consiera"le uncertainty in the $lo"al outloo= an the

omestic !olicy situation in a constant churn, our outloo= forVietnams economy is uner!inne "y some stron$ assum!tions. We

u#e the W$!"d 6an%)# "ate#t f$!eca#t f$! *"$a" *!$wth !ate and de&e"$'in*

Ea#t A#ia *!$wth !ate+ which a!e '!$ected t$ e


35/39

1


dec"inin* in4ati$n !ate+ ,$de#t 'ic%u' in the *!$wth !ate ( end $f the (ea!

and n$ #i*ni/cant dete!i$!ati$n $n the ete!na" f!$nt. 2012 i# '$i#ed t$ #ee

fu!the! i,'!$&e,ent#+ th$u*h with$ut #$,e $"d and deci#i&e acti$n# $n

#t!uctu!a" f!$nt#+ we d$n)t #ee Vietna, !etu!nin* t$ it# '!e-c!i#i# he(da(# $f

*!$wth in the nea! t$ ,ediu,-te!,.

>F) 5es!ite omestic slowown an $lo"al economic uncertainties,

e.ternal sector will !erform as $oo as last year. E'$!t de,and# f$!

Vietna,)# "a$!-inten#i&e ,anufactu!in* *$$d# and a*!icu"tu!a" '!$duct#

a!e "i%e"( t$ h$"d u' th!$u*h 2011. St!$n*e! e'$!t# *!$wth h$we&e! wi""

%ee' the i,'$!t i"" hi*h *i&en the "a!*e i,'$!t c$ntent $f Vietna,)#

e'$!t#. The!ef$!e+ we e'ect the t!ade de/cit in 2011 t$ e ,a!*ina""(

hi*he! than 2010 in $th a#$"ute te!,# a# we"" a# a #ha!e $f G@9. Inc!ea#e

in t!ade de/cit and #"$wd$wn in *!$wth $f !e,ittance# a!e "i%e"( t$ cau#e

the cu!!ent acc$unt de/cit t$ inc!ea#e ( a$ut $ne 'e!centa*e '$int f!$,? 'e!cent $f G@9 t$ D 'e!cent. An inc!ea#e in CA@ ,a( c$incide with

!educed ca'ita" in4$w#+ *i&en the #"$wd$wn in 7@I and '$##ii"it( $f "$we!

'$!tf$"i$ in&e#t,ent# in the ,id#t $f c$ntinuin* ,ac!$ec$n$,ic &$"ati"it(.

$we&e!+ we e'ect the inte!na" ca'ita" 4i*ht t$ dec"ine du!in* 2011+

he"'in* S6V t$ *!adua""( ui"t-u' it# #t$c% $f inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e#.

?') Strict enforcement of Resolution // shoul hel! to ecelerate

in:ation urin$ the secon%half of &'//. Vietna, head"ine in4ati$n

acce"e!ated t$ 1.5 (ea!-$n-(ea!3 in Ma( 2011+ the hi*he#t in the 'a#t 2F

,$nth#. Thi# !e4ect# !i#in* inte!nati$na" f$$d and c$,,$dit( '!ice#+ thei,'act $f "a!*e adu#t,ent $f d$,e#tic '!ice# $f %e( uti"itie# and a !a'id

'a##-th!$u*h $f i,'$!t '!$duct# int$ d$,e#tic '!ice# th!$u*h a wea%enin*

d$n*. We e'ect the (ea!-$n-(ea! in4ati$n !ate c$u"d !each it# 'ea% ( the

end $f #ec$nd ua!te! and #ta!t t$ #teadi"( dece"e!ate the!eafte! t$ !each

a!$und 1D 'e!cent ( @ece,e! 2011. The in4ati$n f$!eca#t f$! 2011

de'end# c!itica""( $n whethe! the *$&e!n,entU# '$"ic( 'ac%a*e >e#$"uti$n

113 wi"" #ucceed in !e#t$!in* '$"ic( c!edii"it( a# we"" a# the c$n/dence $f

d$,e#tic and f$!ei*n in&e#t$!#. @eci#i&e and #u#tained i,'"e,entati$n i#

the!ef$!e c!itica" t$ !ein in in4ati$n+ ui"d c$n/dence+ and t$ #t!en*then the

ete!na" '$#iti$n.?/) Vietnams near%term $rowth outloo= remains hi$hly

challen$in$. The ec$n$,( #ta!ted t$ #"$wd$wn in the /!#t ua!te! $f

2011+ when the fu"" i,'act $f hi*h in4ati$n and #tai"iHati$n ,ea#u!e# had

n$t (et een fe"t. The #ec$nd and thi!d ua!te!# $f 2011 a!e "i%e"( t$ e

t$u*he! than the /!#t ua!te!+ th$u*h !ecent f$!eca#t f!$, M9I #h$w# that


36/39

1


the ec$n$,( i# "i%e"( t$ *!$w at D.F 'e!cent du!in* the /!#t-ha"f $f 2011.

Ti*htenin* ,$neta!( and /#ca" '$"icie# i# e'ected t$ wea%en in&e#t,ent

*!$wth fu!the!+ whi"e #ha!' !i#e in inte!e#t !ate# and inc!ea#in* in4ati$na!(

'!e##u!e w$u"d ad&e!#e"( i,'act '!i&ate c$n#u,'ti$n. i*he! '!$ducti$n

c$#t# wi"" a"#$ na!!$w the *!$wth '$tentia" f$! the c$!'$!ate #ect$!.

C$nt!acti$n in '!$ducti$n #ect$! in tu!n+ wi"" "i%e"( t$ i,'ede #e!&ice#

acti&itie# thi# (ea!. $we&e!+ a##u,in* that the *$&e!n,entU# '$"ic(

,ea#u!e wi"" !e#t$!e c$n/dence and !eui"t the ,$,entu, f$! *!$wth+ we

e'ect the ec$n$,( t$ achie&e a *!$wth !ate $f #"i*ht"( e"$w F 'e!cent.

?&) 1i#en the o!timism uner!innin$ some of our assum!tions, our

economic outloo= is e.!ose to a num"er of ownsie ris=s. Ma$!

!i#%# inc"ude+ '!e,atu!e withd!awa" $f #tai"iHati$n ,ea#u!e#+ !e#u!facin*

$f '!$"e,# in the an%in* and #tate-$wned ente!'!i#e #ect$!# and

c$ntinued inc!ea#e in *"$a" c$,,$dit( '!ice# $! a fu"" "$wn #$&e!ei*ndet c!i#i# in Eu!$'e and it# c$nta*i$n eect $n the !e#t $f the w$!"d.


37/39

1


A00EX8 /ESTIMATI01 VIET0AM I05EX 39 MACR3EC303MIC STA4I2ITY

VIMSD

A1. -hen a country is !erioically su"@ect to "outs of

macroeconomic insta"ility, it is not uncommon to com!are these#erity of one e!isoe with another. Vietna, ha# een #uected t$ at

"ea#t tw$ e'i#$de# $f $&e!heatin* in the "a#t th!ee (ea!#+ the /!#t $ne t$$%

'"ace in ,id-2005 and the #ec$nd $ne #ta!ted in end-2010 and i# $n*$in*.

It ha# a"#$ e'e!ienced at "ea#t $ne e'i#$de $f !a'id #"$wd$wn $f ec$n$,ic

acti&itie# and di#in4ati$n c$incidin* with *"$a" ec$n$,ic c!i#i# in 200

which can a"#$ e c$n#ide!ed an e'i#$de $f ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it(. In

the cu!!ent c$ntet $f hi*h in4ati$n and &$"ati"e f$!ei*n echan*e #ituati$n+

$ne i# $ften a#%ed+ i# 2010-11 ,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( ,$!e #e&e!e the

$ne in 2005P

A2. There is no stanar techni$#e and


38/39

1


W('"$#H 1?3 and Ka,in#%(+ and >einha!t 133. Gi&en that !e"ati&e"(

"a!*e &$"ati"it( $f $ne c$,'$nent ,i*ht d$,inate the ,$&e,ent $f the EM9

inde+ it i# a c$,,$n '!actice t$ u#e the in&e!#e $f the &a!iance $! #tanda!d

de&iati$n $f each #e!ie# a# it# !e#'ecti&e wei*ht.

A?. 9or Vietnam we !ro!ose to estimate Vietnam Ine. of

Macroeconomic Sta"ility VIMSD, which is a moi*e EM6 ine..

E9M indice# ha&e een de&e"$'ed a",$#t ec"u#i&e"( t$ ,ea#u!e in#tai"it(

in the f$!ei*n echan*e ,a!%et+ which i# an i,'$!tant #$u!ce $f

,ac!$ec$n$,ic in#tai"it( in Vietna,. The $the! #$u!ce $f in#tai"it( ha#

een the in4ati$n !ate. We the!ef$!e '!$'$#e VIMS that inc$!'$!ate# the

f$""$win* f$u! &a!ia"e#+ &iH. the echan*e !ate+ inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e#+

inte!e#t !ate# and in4ati$n !ate in a ,anne! #h$wn in the e"$w euati$n.

We a"#$ u#e the in&e!#e $f #tanda!d de&iati$n $f the #e!ie# a# $u! wei*ht#+

in#tead $f &a!iance a# u#ed in the EM9 inde.

whe!e+

B Vietna, Inde $f Mac!$ec$n$,ic Stai"it( f$! ,$nth t.

B N$,ina" echan*e !ate etween VN@ and =S@ in the 'a!a""e" ,a!%et

f$! ,$nth t

B N$,ina" echan*e !ate etween VN@ and =S@ in the $icia" ,a!%et f$!

,$nth t

Standa!d de&iati$n $f the #e!ie#

B :e&e" $f inte!nati$na" !e#e!&e# f$! ,$nth t


B N$,ina" inte!e#t !ate in Vietna, f$! ,$nth t

B N$,ina" inte!e#t !ate in =S f$! ,$nth t


B In4ati$n !ate in Vietna, f$! ,$nth t

B In4ati$n !ate in =S f$! ,$nth t


39/39



AD. -hile usin$ VIMS for ma=in$ !olicy ecisions it is im!ortant to

=now its limitations. VIMS i# a c$,'$#ite inde and it# &a"ue can

4uctuate de'endin* $n the ti,e 'e!i$d u#ed+ ch$ice $f !efe!ence c$unt!(he!e we u#e =S3+ wei*htin* #che,e #ee :i+ >aan and Wi""ett 200F3 f$! a

c!itiue3 and #'eci/c &a!ia"e# u#ed in the e#ti,ati$n e.*.+ f$! inte!e#t

!ate#+ $ne c$u"d u#e $&e!ni*ht !e'$ !ate $! #i ,$nth inte!-an% !ate $!

#$,ethin* e"#e3. Whi"e #uch &a!iati$n# c$u"d !e#u"t in a die!ent nu,e!

f$! the VIMS+ the ua"itati&e cha!acte!i#tic# $f the #e!ie# wi"" e in&a!iant t$

#uch chan*e#. The!ef$!e+ !athe! than ein* t$$ f$cu#ed $n a #'eci/c &a"ue

$f VIMS+ the e,'ha#i# #h$u"d e $n it# t!end and the di!ecti$n $f chan*e.

References

Eichen*!een+ 6a!!(+ And!ew >$#e+ and Cha!"e# W('"$#H 1?3.S'ecu"ati&e Attac%# $n 9e**ed Echan*e >ate#B An E,'i!ica" E'"$!ati$nwith S'ecia" >efe!ence t$ the Eu!$'ean M$neta!( S(#te,+ W$!%in* 9a'e!#?55+$ational Bureau o' Economic esearch.

E"adawi+ I. et K. Sch,idt-ee" 153 B Mac!$ec$n$,ic 9$"icie#+In#tai"it( and G!$wth in the W$!"d+ !ournal o' #'rican Economies+ + 11F-1F5.

Ka,in#%(+ G!acie"a and Ca!,en >einha!t 13. The Twin C!i#e#B Cau#e#

$f 6an%in* and 6a"ance-$f-9a(,ent# C!i#e#+ #merican Economic e/ie5+

5B ?a,%i#hen S. >aan and Th$,a# Wi""ett 200F3+ Mea#u!in* Cu!!enc(C!i#e# =#in* Echan*e Ma!%et 9!e##u!e Indice#B The I,'!eci#i$n $f9!eci#i$n Wei*ht# Worin6 Papers series in Economics+ Sch$$" $f 9$"itic#and Ec$n$,ic#+ C"a!e,$nt G!aduate =ni&e!#it(.

Documents

Bao Cao Cua WB Tai Hoi Nghi Kinh Te VN Ngay 8-6-2011